Tag: 2008 Elections

Dailykos diarist Elruin has picked up a scoop from the Huffington Post regarding comedian and Air America host Al Franken’s future plans:

Al Franken, the best-known host of the liberal network, will announce his expected departure on his show later today, to explore a run for the U.S. Senate from Minnesota.

I’ve met Al Franken.  I like Al Franken.  But is he the right guy to beat Norm Coleman in 2008?  I’m not so sure about that.

The general election contest featured a clear contrast between Jerry McNerney, a wind energy executive vs. Richard Pombo, the zealous defender of oil companies.

  Up until 2006, Pombo was considered invulnerable by political analysts who thought the concept of a liberal Democrat beating a Republican in a largely rural district was absurd. There was one major difference between the 2004 race where Pombo received 61% of the vote and the 2006 election. In 2006, the  Sierra Club spent $400,000 on TV ads blanketing the district and the League of Conservation Voters tossed in additional funds for radio and TV ads (Ebell 2006). The group that played the largest role in Pombo’s demise was Defenders of Wildlife, which created a two pronged attack: one front involved television attacks on Pombo and the other front featured an aggressive voter outreach.

Defenders of Wildlife created a website called “Pombo in their pocket,” which portrayed the congressman as an out of touch legislator who was more concerned with lobbyists than with his own constituents. They also bought a 30 foot RV which trailed the Congressman throughout the district – passing out literature to interested voters (Eilperin 2006).

  To the surprise of many political observers, including some in the environmental community, on November 7th 2006, Jerry McNerney defeated Rep. Richard Pombo by a  53%-47% margin.

What about Knollenberg?

Rep. Joe Knollenberg won reelection with just 51% of the vote against Nancy Skinner, a carpetbagger who won only 1% of the vote in the 2004 Illinois Senate Democratic primary. Knollenberg is a strong candidate to become th next Phillip Crane or George Gekas. His skills as a candidate are rusty and his district is moving Democratic. All we need is a good candidate and DCCC help.

A concerted effort by enviro groups like the LCV could help defeat. Here’s why the enviros should target him. Knollenberg is one of the leaders in the movement against raising CAFE standards. His intransigent position is slowing down effort to curb global warming. Defeating him with be good for Democrats, America and the Planet.

1. Colorado (R-Open Seat): Leans Democratic. Over the past 4 years, Colorado has shifted towards the Democrats. This Rocky Mountain State has recently added two new Democratic Congressman, a Democratic Senator and a Democratic Governor. Rep. Mark Udall’s prodigious war chest combined with the Convention boost make him the early favorite to win this seat.
2. Sen. John Sununu:  The great wave of 2006 was the largest in the last Republican bastion in the Northeast. If thew voters of New Hampshire are willing to elect Carol Shea-Porter to Congress?. The Stonybrook Farms founder could be a  formidable liberal in the nobles oblige type of Ted Kennedy and Jon Corzine.
3.  Sen. Norm Coleman :  Minnesota is a true swing state that is once again swinging Democratic after 8 years of movement towards the GOP. If R.T Rybak or Rep. McCollum runs, Coleman will lose. This race will be decided by candidate recruitment.
4. Sen. Susan Collins:  We already have a candidate, Rep. Tom Allen, but Collins is a very savvy pol who has a 70% approval rating. This race will be a test of how far left the Northeast has moved.
5. Sen. Gordon Smith: Slight GOP lean. The last Republican Senator representing a  state bordering the Pacific. Earl Blumenauer and Peter DeFazio probably won’t run because of their newly gained power in the House. Randall Edwards could be a strong candidate for Democrats.
6.  Sen. Elizabeth Dole: Toss-up if Gov. Mike Easley runs, otherwise, this race has a solid GOP lean.
7. Easley would win 44 percent to 41 percent, according to a survey of 501 likely voters conducted Jan. 22 by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh. The difference is within the poll’s margin of sampling error of 4.3 percentage points.
8. Virginia/ Nebraska/ New Mexico, if any of the GOP incumbents in these states retire, Democrats have a good shot at picking up some of these seats.

Onto the Democrats.

1. Sen. Mary Landrieu: Leans GOP.  Mary Landrieu previous winning percentages against third tier GOP candidates were 4% and 0%, respectively. She’s always been a controversial and polarizing l figure and her aggressive courting of Republican voters has alienated traditionally Democratic African Americans.  Hurricane Katrina has displaced many of these voters and has created a skepticism of government among the remaining ones. Mayor Nagin and  Bobby Jindal will actively work to undermine her bid for reelection. If she wins, it’s because of another inexplicable GOP recruiting failure.
2. Sen. Tim Johnson. If Mike Rounds runs, it’s competitive. Otherwise, six more years for Tim Johnson.
3. Sen. Tom Harkin. If Latham runs, then this race will be closer to Harkin’s victory over Rep. Lightfoot than his victory over Rep. Ganske. If Steve King runs, expect another blowout. Either way, Harkin will put another  trophy of a Republican Congressman on his wall.

4. Sen. Mark Pryor: Likely Democratic. This race get interesting if Mike Huckabee is the nominee for the GOP.  I still think Pryor wins because of his name, his moderate views and the absence of a GOP bench in Arkansas.
5. The rest? Barring retirements, they’re all shoe-ins.

The Senate races will come down to recruiting, the strength of each party’s  national ticket, local factors and, of course, the War in Iraq.

Best scenario for Democrats : 57-41-2 Democratic Majority.

Best scenario for the GOP: 50-49-1. GOP Majority, but only if the GOP holds the Oval Office.

Yep here we go again. With the dust not yet settled on the last challenge in FL-13 (Good luck Christine) we take a look forward to 2008.

Wander below the fold for the good oil.

Well well well. It seems so soon since we were celebrating the Midterm results and our record of contesting 425 Districts. That’s because it is so soon (LOL). Odd thing to do here in Australia watch the midterms but I took the day off work and had a merry old time watching it all unfold on the net and on cable he he he.

Nonetheless time for the 50 State Page to crank up for 2008 courtesy of the redoubtable Barry Welsh. This cycle we have some help however from the magnificent 2008 Race Tracker wiki. Go and take a look at them both right now and whilst you are there throw Barry some cash. He will be running again and is rightly a netroots champion.

Now for the good oil;
248 races with confirmed candidates. A confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running.

The 248 includes all 233 Democratic incumbents (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts, and all Dem incumbents are also listed as Running But Unconfirmed).

There are also 15 Republican held districts where we have confirmed candidates as follows:
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-21,
IL-14,
IA-04,
MI-07,
MO-09,
NE-02,
NJ-11,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-07,
OH-16,
PA-03,
TX-04.

But wait there is more.
We also have 238 candidates who I believe are running but who are at this stage unconfirmed according to the above criteria. All 233 districts held by Democrats but also 5 districts held by Republicans as follows:

AR-03,
CA-04,
ID-01,
IN-06 hurry up and confirm Barry!,
NJ-05.

We also have 6 rumoured candidates. These guys are mentioned as considering the race in the following districts:
FL-06,
FL-13 *** depends on the outcome of the challenge,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
PA-15,
TX-06.

So we are off and racing for 2008. Use the 2008 Race Tracker wiki as the primary source of gossip and information as it is a fantastic site and I have spent a LOT of time contributing there also.

Any candidate news, particularly opponents for Repubs welcome in the comments!

Louisiana’s fifth district, Huey Long’s district, presently represented by Republican Rodney Alexander,

does not appear as competitive as LA-07, the first district about which I have written in this series on Louisiana’s Congressional seats.  Indeed, Republicans garner 68% of the vote in this seat’s open primaries when confronted with underfunded an inexperienced Democratic challengers.  Here are the results of the 2000, 2004 and 2006 open primaries:

2006
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 778 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
78,211  68% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
33,233  29% Gloria Williams Hearn, D Defeated
1,876  2% Brent Sanders, L Defeated
1,262  1% John Watts, O Defeated

2004
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 850 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
141,495  59% Rodney Alexander, R Elected
58,591  25% Zelma “Tisa” Blakes, D Defeated
37,971  16% John W. “Jock” Scott, R Defeated

2000
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 756 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
42,977  24% Roger Beall, D Defeated
123,975  69% John C. Cooksey, R Elected
5,335  3% Raymond A. “Chuck” Dumas, O Defeated
7,186  4% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated

The poor performance of nominal Democrats in LA-05 is not very encouraging.  But in 2002 and in 1996, years in which this seat was open, very competitive challenges were waged by Democrats.  John Cooksey, a Republican who held this seat until he abandoned it in 2002 to run against Mary Landrieu in the open primary for Louisiana’s US Senate seat, won this seat in 1996.  The open primary results of the 1996 race follow the pattern outlined above: Republicans received 67% of the vote, while Democrats garnered 33%.

1996 Open Primary
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
9,286  5% Michael Jordan Caire, D Defeated
60,853  34% John Cooksey, R Runoff
48,226  27% Clyde Holloway, R Defeated
7,106  4% “Ben” Marshall, R Defeated
5,268  3% Tim Robinson, R Defeated
50,144  28% Francis Thompson, D Runoff

Although Republicans won 67% of the vote, Democrat Francis Thompson, a Representative in the Louisiana House of Representatives, managed to edge one of the Republican challengers and qualify for the runoff, where he cut into the Republican voting base and earned 42% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 1996 runoff:

1996 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 796 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
135,990  58% John Cooksey, R Elected
97,363  42% Francis Thompson, D Defeated

When voters are forced to choose between one Democrat and one Republican, the margin of difference between the parties’ respective vote totals decreases dramatically.

This was also the case in 2002, when the seat became open as a result of Cooksey’s abortive run for the US Senate.  Here are the results of the 2002 open primary, which also follows the partisan voting pattern I discuss above:

2002
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
52,952  29% Rodney Alexander, D Runoff
34,533  19% Robert J. Barham, R Defeated
45,278  25% Lee Fletcher, R Runoff
42,573  23% Clyde C. Holloway, R Defeated
4,595  2% Sam Houston Melton, Jr., D Defeated
1,145  1% Vinson Mouser, O Defeated
3,581  2% Jack Wright, R Defeated

Because three Republicans split their voting base, a Democrat named Rodney Alexander was able to qualify for the runoff despite winning only 29% of the vote.  Alexander won that runoff as a Democrat by 974 votes, staging a major upset in 2002, when Democrats performed poorly in federal races, especially in the South.  Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:

2002 runoff
U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 746 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
86,718  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
85,744  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The upset Alexander staged in 2002 is very similar to that waged by Democrat Charlie Melancon for the open Congressional seat in LA-03 in 2004, when Melancon won his seat by 569 votes.  Here are the results of LA-03’s 2004 open primary and runoff, which once again demonstrates how Democrats can compete in Louisiana if one Republican and one Democrat face off after a primary:

LA-03 2004 open primary

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
25,783  10% Damon J. Baldone, D Defeated
19,347  7% Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi, D Defeated
10,350  4% Kevin D. Chiasson, R Defeated
63,328  24% “Charlie” Melancon, D Runoff
61,132  23% Craig Romero, R Defeated
84,680  32% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Runoff

LA-03 2004 runoff
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District
All 573 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
57,611  50% “Charlie” Melancon, D Elected
57,042  50% W.J. “Billy” Tauzin, III, R Defeated

But more reasons exist for Alexander’s victory in 2002 than just the ability of Democrats to perform well when facing Republican opponents in highly publicized runoffs.  Alexander may have one his seat as a Democrat in 2002 as a result of perceived shifts in the Republican party.  For John Cooksey was not your standard southern Republican: although Cooksey personally opposed abortion rights, he did not believe the US Constitution should be amended with an abortion ban.  For to him, “federal bureaucrats” should have no role in shaping policy that affects the quotidian lives of Americans.  This psuedo-libertarian stance on cultural issues starkly contrasted with the campaign rhetoric of the Republican party in 2002, possibly swaying voters away from Fletcher to Alexander in the 2002 runoff.

Another factor in Alexander’s 2002 Democratic victory was the US Senate race, the only other federal race on the ballot in the 2002 runoff.  Many believe the Republican’s aggressive campaign against Landrieu backfired, propelling her to a surprise victory in a year when Democratic Senators lost their seats in the South.  Although Landrieu did not perform as well as Alexander in LA-05, she did receive 48.5% of the vote.  Here are the results of the 2002 Senate race runoff and the Congressional runoff in LA-05 by parish:

2002 US Senate Race and LA-05 House runoff results in LA-05

Allen Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,111  59% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,201  41% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,630  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
950  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Evangeline Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740  51% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,563  49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 26 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,396  44% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,811  56% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Iberville Parish (half of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 44 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,390  68% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,431  32% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,970  69% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,363  31% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Pointe Coupee Parish (most of which is in LA-05)
U. S. Senator
All 24 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,977  62% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,998  38% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,044  76% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
967  24% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Avoyelles Parish
U. S. Senator
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,464  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,897  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 51 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
6,429  59% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,531  41% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Rapides Parish
U. S. Senator
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
15,346  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
17,983  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 106 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,045  52% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
16,011  48% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

LaSalle Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,253  33% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,530  67% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,498  40% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,257  60% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Catahoula Parish
U. S. Senator
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,600  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,410  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 34 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,687  56% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,305  44% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Concordia Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,853  53% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,491  47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,701  51% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,560  49% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Winn Parish
U. S. Senator
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,038  48% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,247  52% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 29 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,477  58% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,784  42% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Caldwell Parish
U. S. Senator
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,237  43% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,635  57% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 20 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,354  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,511  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Franklin Parish
U. S. Senator
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,604  45% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,150  55% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 33 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,735  48% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
2,970  52% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Tensas Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,270  60% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
847  40% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,246  60% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
844  40% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Madison Parish
U. S. Senator
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,759  57% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
1,333  43% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 25 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,738  57% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,295  43% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Richland Parish
U. S. Senator
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,680  44% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,368  56% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 23 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,847  47% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,163  53% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Ouachita Parish
U. S. Senator
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,330  41% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
24,450  59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 79 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
17,422  42% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
23,982  58% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Jackson Parish
U. S. Senator
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,691  49% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,786  51% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 27 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,562  65% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,940  35% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Lincoln Parish
U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,305  46% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
6,327  54% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
5,681  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
5,766  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Union Parish
U. S. Senator
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,714  39% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
4,181  61% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 46 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
2,778  41% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
4,023  59% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

Morehouse Parish
U. S. Senator
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,009  50% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
3,974  50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 32 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
3,956  50% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
3,946  50% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

West Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,135  36% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
2,028  64% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 18 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,171  37% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
1,983  63% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

East Carroll Parish
U. S. Senator
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,360  63% Mary Landrieu, D Elected
801  37% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R Defeated

U. S. Representative, 5th Congressional District
All 19 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,351  63% Rodney Alexander, D Elected
782  37% Lee Fletcher, R Defeated

The results of the US Senate and US House races in the 2002 runoff almost mirror one another, which has lead some to believe Landrieu and Alexander mutually assisted one another.  The only parish Landrieu won that Alexander did not was Evangeline Parish, and only Winn and Jackson Parishes were won by Alexander and not by Landrieu. 

Because Landrieu is a New Orleans Democrat, she did not perform as well as Alexander, who has resided in Northern Louisiana for at least three decades.  But notice the Democratic victory in 2002 was during a year when Landrieu was up for reelection.  This was also the case in 1996, when Democrat Francis Thompson made it into a runoff with John Cooksey, sharing the runoff ticket with Landrieu as she faced off with Republican Woody Jenkins.  LA-05, in other words, can be competitive for Democrats in a year when there is a US Senate race with a Democratic incumbent.  It can also be competitive during a Presidential election year. 

2008 is also promising, as races for federal offices will no longer have open primaries.  Each party will hold its own primary, and the winners of each party’s primary will face off in a general election.  Because 54% of Louisiana’s voters are registered Democrats, many voters who voted for a Republican in open primaries in the past will receive ballots for the Democratic party.  This will most probably result in the election of a consensus candidate who can compete throughout the entire district.  And because only two or three candidates representing different parties will share the ballot on election day, the results should be similar to the runoff results of 1996 and 2002, giving Democrats a viable chance to win Alexander’s seat.

Some believe it will be difficult to unseat Alexander now that he is a Republican.  Alexander switched parties and refiled his election petition just hours before the filing deadline for the open primary in 2004.  Although he claimed he switched parties as a result of the Democratic Party’s nomination of John Kerry for the Presidency, many understand his switch to be the result of White House entreaties.  Alexander was also promised a seat on the Appropriations Committee by the House Republican leadership.  This switch, however, has not helped him consolidate a broader voting base than that enjoyed by his predecessor Cooksey.  Similar to Cooksey in 2000, Alexander garnered 68 in the open primary in 2006.  He is now viewed as a Republican, and the Democrats who previously supported him in 2002 have abandoned him, making him vulnerable to a Democratic challenge.

Also complicating Alexander’s reelection bid in 2008 are the scandals in which his office became embroiled in October 2006.  His assistant was one of the pages pursued by Mark Foley online, and Alexander’s office did not report Foley’s abuse to House leadership, for Alexander claims the page’s parents did not want him to pursue the matter.  Alexander’s inability to manage the affairs of his office also surfaced when his former scheduler, Elizabeth Scott, sued his office for neglecting to take action against Royal Alexander, Rodney Alexander’s Chief of Staff, who engaged in lewd acts of sexual misconduct while sexually harrassing Scott.  Although Gloria Hearn, who lacked a website until a few weeks before the open primary, discussed these problems with voters, Alexander’s ethical lapses were not central to her campaign. 

Alexander’s gross negligence, Landrieu’s reelection for US Senate, changes in Louisiana’s primary system, the high number of African-Americans in the district (34%) and the high percentage of registered Democrats make Alexander a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent.  Thankfully, the Democratic bench in LA-05 is very deep, as there are many eligible state legislators and mayors from which we can choose.

LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates

Richard “Rick” GALLOT, Jr. – District 11
Bienville, Clairborne and Lincoln Parishes
Attorney
elected 2000, final term begins 2007
2003 – unopposed

James R. “Jim” FANNIN – District 13
Bienville, Jackson, Ouchita and Winn Parishes
Independent Businessman
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 56/44 in open primary

Charles W. DeWITT – District 25
Rapides and Vernon Parishes
Farmer and Businessman
elected 1979, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Israel B. CURTIS – District 26
Rapides Parish
Legislator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – deated another Dem 53/47 in runoff

Rick L. FARRAR – District 27
Rapides Parish
Attorney
elected 1991 and 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – deated Other Party candidate 61/39 in open primary

Charles “Charlie Mac” McDONALD – District 14
East Carroll, Morehouse, Ouchita and West Carroll Parishes
Retired University Administrator
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Willie HUNTER, Jr. – District 17
Ouachita Parish
Attorney
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

Francis C. THOMPSON – District 19
East Carroll, Madison, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland and West Carroll Parishes
Retired Educator
elected 1974, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed
1996 US House Candidate – defeated 58/42 by Republican in runoff

Lelon KENNEY – District 20
Caldwell, Catahoula, Franklin and Tensas Parishes
Farmer
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem 63/37 in runoff

Monica H. WALKER – District 28
Avoyelles Parish
Business Owner
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – unopposed

Karen Gaudet ST. GERMAIN – District 60
Ascension, Assumption, Iberville and West Baton Rouge Parishes
Legislator
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated another Dem 52/48 in runoff

Many state representatives will retire in 2007, and I imagine many of them can be convinced to run for Alexander’s seat.

LOUISIANA SENATE – Eligible Candidates

Charles D. “CD” JONES – District 34
Ouachita, Richland, East Carroll, Madison, Tensas and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1992, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1980-1992; Retired Army Captain, 1976-1979
2003 – unopposed

Noble E. ELLINGTON – District 32
Ouachita, Caldwell, Richland, Franklin, Catahoula, LaSalle, Rapides, Avoyelles and Concordia Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1998, eligible to serve through 2008
Former State Representative, 1988-1995
2003 – defeated another Dem 80/20 in open primary

Joe McPHERSON – District 29
Rapides Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
Former State Senator, 1984-1996; United States Army Reserves
2003 – defeated another Dem 79/21 in open primary

Kenneth M. “Mike” SMITH – District 31
Sabine, Natchitoches, Winn, Grant and Rapides Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1996, eligible to serve through 2008
2003 – unopposed

Donald E. HINES, MD – District 28
Allen, Evangeline, Avoyelles and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 1993, eligible to serve through 2008
Current Senate President
2003 – unopposed

Robert “Rob” MARIONNEAUX, Jr. – District 17
Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge, Iberville, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through 2012
2003 – defeated two Republicans 62/29/9 in open primary

Many state senators’ terms end in 2008.  Perhaps they too can be convinced to challenge Alexander.

MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates

James E. “Jamie” MAYO – Mayor of Monroe
Ouachita Parish, population 52,163
elected October 2001, unopposed 2005

Clarence FIELDS – Mayor of Pineville
Rapides Parish, population 13,858
elected 2002, unopposed 2006

Clarence HAWKINS – Mayor of Bastrop
Morehouse Parish, population 12,763
elected 1989, reelected 2005 83/17 against another Dem in open primary
no website

Mark A. “Tony” GULOTTA – Mayor of Plaquemine
Iberville Parish, population 6,894
elected 1992, unopposed 2004
website under construction

Deano THORNTON – Mayor of Winnfield
Winn Parish, population 5,484
elected April 1994, reelected April 2006 51/49 over another Dem in open primary

Richard MICHAEL – Mayor of Marksville
Avoyelles Parish, population 5,695
elected 1978, reelected April 2006 unopposed
no website

Jack HAMMONS – Mayor of Winnsboro
Franklin Parish, population 5,149
elected 1998, reelected April 2006 53/45 over another Dem in open primary
no website

Isaac FIELDS, Jr. – Mayor of Lake Providence
East Carroll Parish, population 4,751
elected 2002, reelected October 2006 unopposed
no website

Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.  A populist Democrat with experience and knowlege of agriculture who has a pseudo-libertarian view of government, especially with respect to cultural and social issues, would be an ideal candidate.  Winnfield, the county seat of Winn Parish, is Huey Long’s hometown, and I imagine a message of agricultural development and economic development in this very poor district will resonate with its voters.

Resources with which to contact activists in this district include Democratic Meetups for Monroe, Louisiana, which includes contact information for the DNC’s congressional district field coordinator, Jeanie Williams-West.  One can also contact members of the Louisiana Democratic Party through their website.

I cannot emphasize the importance of fielding strong challengers to every Congressional seat held by a Republican in Louisiana.  Not only will this help us expand our majority; it will also secure high turnout for Sen. Landrieu and for our Presidential candidate in a year when Democrats and Republicans will hold for the first time separate primaries, thus guarenteeing a race between one Democrat and one Republican on the general election.  As I explain above, this increases our chances of winning Congressional seats in this state, especially if we hold competitive Democratic primaries for each Congressional seat presently held by a Republican.
 

This being the Swing State project, one of the hottest topics of discussion on the front page and in the user diaries has been determining exactly which Republican-held districts are prime for targeting (see here, here, here, here and here for some examples).

Why don’t we take it a step a further with a little groupwork, SSP-style.  If you’re so inclined, here’s what I’d like you to do: pretend that you’re the new DCCC Chair, Chris Van Hollen, and you’re drafting up a preliminary battle plan for 2008 in between intensive intervals of Frogger (or whatever retro arcade games they play in their spare time at the D-trip’s HQ).  Obviously, you will be forced to commit a significant amount of resources into incumbent protection–but skip that part for now, other than keeping in mind that your resources are finite, and you won’t be able to target as many races to the same extent as you did in 2006.  You will then turn your attention to the ripest Republican targets of 2008.  You will need to draft a list of the following:

-Up to 15 top-tier, “must contest” districts.  These are districts with vulnerable Republican incumbents where you will actively seek out a top-shelf candidate, fundraise aggressively for (i.e. Red To Blue designation), and target with significant independent expenditures in the general election campaign.

-Up to 20 second-tier, “maybe” districts.  These are districts that could potentially become competitive.  You will want to keep a close eye on these districts and try to encourage strong local candidates to throw their hat in the ring, but you will hold off aggressive fundraising or expenditure plans until the dynamics become more clear, at which point it’s entirely possible that some of these districts could be substitutes or additions to your list of first-tier races.

-A list of “no” districts (as many as you’d like, but at least 5)–districts that might have been competitive in the past or have been targeted in the past that you feel are probably beyond the Democrats’ reach in 2008, or simply not worth the tremendous investment.  These are districts where you will take no active involvement whatsoever, and let the local grassroots make whatever they will of the race.

This should be fun!

From BBC News:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6296299.stm

Kerry ‘will not seek White House’

Senator John Kerry, who lost to George W Bush in 2004, will not run for US president in 2008, reports say.

The Massachusetts Democrat had been thought to be considering another run, and had kept campaign staff and a fundraising operation in place.

But he would have faced an uphill battle for his party’s nomination, given the likely candidacies of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Mr Kerry is expected to make a formal announcement in the coming hours.

He made his decision only in the past day, reports say.

So this is the second month of tracking the Top 50 House Pick Up Chances in the country. What is the most amazing about a project like this is the amount of new information there already is to switch decisions  about races. We have about  7 votes in the House that could be used  against certain Republicans in the House . We also have a new DCCC list of where they are looking to go in terms of targeting. In addition to the information from last month  I will include change as well reason for change

The Top 50 races

1. MI 7
  Republican Tim Walberg
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reason for Weakness
  Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,.  He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked  will cause him problems.  If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

Change No Change
Reason: Tim Walberg has already cast his lot like the Right Wing Republican we expected including a no vote on the Minimum Wage,  the only issue is that lots of Republicans now seem to be circling  as well.

2. PA 15
  Republican Charlie Dent
  06 Winning Percentage  53%
  04 Bush Percentage 50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won .  He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat. 

Change  No change
Reason Charlie Dent remains vulnerable and  the DCCC now list him a such. This race will remain very hot
3.. FL 8
  Republican Ric Keller
  06 Winning Percentage 53%
  04 Bush Percentage  55%
  Reasons for Weakness
  You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.

Change Up
Reason: On reflection Ric Keller seems even more vulnerable, and his rushing out to oppose Iraq would make sense for someone more vulnerable.

4.  NV 3 
  Republican Jon Porter
  06 Winning Percentage 48%
  04 Bush Percentage 50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority.  The Democrat was able to get 47%  with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Down
Reason: Keller had to move up and therefore Porter had to move down  He remains  very vulnerable and is DCCC rated as such

5. WA 8
  Republican Dave Reichert 
  06 Winning Percentage  ?
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change None
Reason. Reichert remains a Republican in a Democrat district who by an extremely small percentage and who just seems vulnerable 

6. AZ 1
  Republican Rick Renzi
  06 Winning Percentage 51%
  04 Bush Percentage 54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi.  This is a member who is beatable.

Change Up
Reason: The DCCC lists it as vulnerable because of ethics issues that alone should make him more vulnerable.

7. CA 4
  Republican John Doolittle
  06 Winning Percentage 49%
  04 Bush Percentage 61%
  Reasons for Weakness
  A congressperson never wants to get  less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why.  If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race.  We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: The increased likelihood of Charlie Brown’s running again  makes Doolittle vulnerable as does the DCCC ranking  the district in its  ethically challenged catergory.

8. NJ 7
  Republican Mike Ferguson
  06 Winning Percentage  49%
  04 Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Another Republican under 50% spells danger  for him. He also  is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority  for the first time.  Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race.  Ferguson’s position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason: The Democratic Convention in Denver will make beating Marilyn Musgrave more difficult he drop allows this district to move up.

9.NC 8
  Republican Robin Hayes
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change Up
Reason: Same as above

10. CO 4
  Republican Marilyn Musgrave
  06 Winning Percentage 46%
  04 Bush Percentage 58%
  Reasons for Weakness
  46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent.  It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: In a traditionally Republican part of a trending Democratic State, CO 4 is likely to re-act slightly against the Democratic Tide. This just make beating Musgrave more difficult and it is more important to win Colorado in the Presidential than beating Marilyn Musgrave.

11. MI 9
  Republican Joe Knollenberg
  06 Winning Percentage 52%
  04 Bush Percentage 51%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons  for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on.  He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority.  Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If  she runs again I think supporting  her would be justified.
Change None
Reason, If anything this spot holds the best because it is now a DCCC target.

12.  IL 14
  Republican Dennis Hastert
  06 Winning Percentage 60%
  04 Bush Percentage 55%
  Reasons for Weakness
  How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will  open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic  of an era that is gone. Illinois is  also a state trending clearly our way.  This is a great  chance.
Change None
Reason: Looking at Dennis Hastert’s sad face it is hard to believe he will run again and open seats are generally easier to get.
13.  PA 18
  Republican Tim Murphy
  06 Winning Percentage 58%
  04  Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness 
  Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us.  This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was  recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: The scandal is now being addressed by the DCCC edging this seat up a spot.

14.  OH 16
  Republican Ralph Regula
  06 Winning Percentage 59%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change down
Reason The Murphy Scandal  moves Regula down a spot no real change.
  15 .  IL 6
  Republican Peter Roskam
  06 Winning Percentage 51% 
  04 Bush Percentage  53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it.  That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable.  Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change None
Reason: Roskam has voted like a right winger when his district is far more reasonable. He has to be considered a prime target

16. PA 6
  Republican Jim Gelach
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  51%,  three straight elections. It seems as  if  Jim Gerlach  is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority.  A good Democratic Candidate will make this a  race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been.

  17. NY 25
  Republican Jim Walsh
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been.  As  one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change None
Reason  Same basic reasons, he has been voting with Democrats on everything but stem cell research.

18. NM 1
  Republican Heather Wilson
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change None
Reason She is just a vulnerable as ever but is still as skilled as ever. She is also voting along with Democrats and making noise on Iraq.

19. WY AL
  Republican Barbara Cubin
  06 Winning Percentage  48%
  04 Bush Percentage  69%
  Reasons for Weakness
  No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary. 
Change None
Reason Cubin keeps voting like a right winger and her value in the minority still drops. Although the Republican inability to really oppose Democrats so far in the House makes a primary less likely no one wants to run to be powerless.

20.  OH 15
  Republican Deborah Pyrce
  06 Winning Percentage  50%
  04  Bush Percentage  50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  If you basically run  in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows.  This is a tough one but  completely winnable.
Change None
Reason: The DCCC keeps her on the target list and her district might be more Democratic in a Presidential but 06 was a great year for Ohio Democrats.  She is already leaving leadership aside and voting with Democrats a ton.

21.  CT 4
  Republican Chris Shays
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04  Bush Percentage 46%
  Reasons for Weakness
  In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties.  It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it.  Still  only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change None
Reason: Shays voted against Medicare change but otherwise is voting with most of the Democratic agenda. The DCCC still seems interested.

22.  IL 10
  Republican Mark Kirk
  06 Winning Percentage  53%
  04  Bush Percentage 47%
  Reasons for Weakness
  The seventh  Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was  after 2004. A scare yes, but he  still  had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious. 

Change None 
Reason: Mark Kirk is clearly leaving his leadership days behind  and voting with Democrats . This makes it easier for him to paint himself as moderate but it is also clearly as the DCCC said

23.  NY 13
  Republican Vito Fosella 
  06 Winning Percentage  57%
  04  Bush Percentage  55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics  violations. New York’s Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot. 

24.  PA 3
  Republican Phil English
  06 Winning Percentage 54%
  04  Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reasons: Vito’s  weakness is just slightly greater.

25. MI 11
  Republican Thaddeus McCotter
  06 Winning Percentage 54% 
  04 Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding.  That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
Change Down
Reason: Just moved down a spot.

Dropped out of Top 25
Steve Chabot

Entered
Vito Fossella

26.  OH 1
  Republican Steve Chabot
  06 Winning Percentage 53%
  04 Bush Percentage  51%

27.  NJ 5
  Republican Scott Garrett
  06 Winning Percentage  55%
  04  Bush Percentage  57%

28. IL 11
  Republican Jerry Weller
  06 Winning Percentage 55%
  04  Bush Percentage  53%

29.  IA 4
  Republican Tom Latham
  06 Winning Percentage  57%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

30. NY 3
  Republican Peter King
  06 Winning Percentage  56%
  04  Bush Percentage 53%

31.  OH 2
  Republican Jean Schmidt
  06 Winning Percentage 51% 
  04  Bush Percentage 64%

32.  VA 11
  Republican Tom Davis
  06 Winning Percentage 55% 
  04  Bush Percentage 50%

33.  NY 29
  Republican Randy Kuhl
  06 Winning Percentage  52%
  04  Bush Percentage 56%

34.  FL 1O
  Republican Bill Young
  06 Winning Percentage  66% 
  04  Bush Percentage  50%

35.  CA 26
  Republican David Drier
  06 Winning Percentage 57% 
  04  Bush Percentage  55%

36.  OH 3
  Republican Mike Turner
  06 Winning Percentage 59% 
  04  Bush Percentage  54%

37.  FL 24
  Republican Tom Feeney
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04 Bush Percentage  55%

38. DE AL
  Republican Mike Castle
  06 Winning Percentage 57% 
  04  Bush Percentage  46%

39.  NJ 3
  Republican Jim Saxton
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

40. MN 6
  Republican Michelle Bachmann
  06 Winning Percentage  50%
  04  Bush Percentage 57%

41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage  58%

  42.  OH 12
  Republican Pat Tiberi
  06 Winning Percentage 58% 
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

43.
NY 23
  Republican John McHugh
  06 Winning Percentage  63%
  04  Bush Percentage 51%

44.  OH 14
  Republican Steve LaTourette
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04  Bush Percentage  53%

45.  NJ 2
  Republican Frank LoBiondo
  06 Winning Percentage  62%
  04  Bush Percentage  50%

46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning  Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%

Reason Likely to be open

  47. WI 1
  Republican Paul Ryan
  06 Winning Percentage  63%
  04  Bush Percentage 54%

48.
MN 3
  Republican Jim Ramstad 
  06 Winning Percentage  65%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

49 .  ID 1
  Republican Bill Salli
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage 69%

50.  MI 4
  Republican Dave Camp
  06 Winning Percentage  60%
  04  Bush Percentage  55%

Dropped out of Top 50
Ilena Ros-Lethinen
Fred Upton

Enter Top 50
Thelma Drake
Tom Tancredo

LA-07, presently represented by Republican sophomore Charles Boustany,

is historically Democratic.  Chris John, a Democrat, previously held this from 1997 until he resigned in 2004 to run for an open US Senate seat.  Before John a conservative Democrat named Jimmy Hayes, who left the Democratic party in 1995 and ran an abortive campaign for US Senate in 1996, held this seat for five terms.

A split Democratic party after a contentious open primary allowed Boustany to win this seat in 2004.  Here are the results of the open primary:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 558 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
105,761 39% Charles Boustany, Jr., R  Runoff 
5,177 2% Malcolm R. Carriere, D  Defeated 
67,389 25% “Don” Cravins, D  Defeated 
69,079 25% Willie Landry Mount, D  Runoff 
26,526 10% David Thibodaux, R  Defeated

 

Republicans captured only 49% of the vote in the open primary, even though President Bush performed quite well in the district, garnering 60 percent of the vote on the same day.  Democrats, on the other hand, captured 51% of the vote.  But Cravins’s unwillingness to fully back Mount in the runoff resulted in Boustany’s win, an unprecedented win, as he was the first Republican to ever hold this seat.  Here are the 2004 runoff results:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 558 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
75,039 55% Charles Boustany, Jr., R  Elected
61,493 45% Willie Landry Mount, D  Defeated

 

Boustany should have been and could have been a vulnerable freshman incumbent in 2006.  The DCCC and the Louisiana Democratic Party chose to not challenge his seat, however.  But Boustany still nonetheless had an opponent in online Democratic activist Mike Stagg, who held Boustany at 71% with little name recognition and very little funding.  One also should not dismiss the general state of chaos that plagued and continues to plague this district in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.  Here are the results of the 2006 open primary:

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District
All 517 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
113,720 71% Charles W. Boustany, Jr., R  Elected
47,133 29% Mike Stagg, D  Defeated

 

Boustany has done very little to distinguish himself in the House of Representatives during his first term: he did not sponsor legislation while in the majority; and he did not assume a leadership role in the wake of the hurricanes.  Now in the minority, I doubt a sophomore Republican will have many opportunities to assume a meaningful role in the legislative process.  This should contribute to his vulnerability, as should the historical Democratic lean of his district.

Complicaing his reelection bid in 2008 is the reelection bid of Sen. Mary Landrieu.  Landrieu cosponsored legislation with Pete Domenici of New Mexico to earmark offshore oil and gas revenues to the reconstruction of Louisiana’s wetlands, half of which are in Boustany’s district.  Landrieu has also directed funds from many different bills to Louisiana, while Boustany has done virtually nothing to help the district, even though he has a seat on the House Transportation Committee. 

I mention this, as Landrieu won many of the parishes in Boustany’s district in the 2002 runoff.  Here are the results of the 2002 runoff:

Calcasieu Parish

U. S. Senator
All 110 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
25,918 53% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
22,546 47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Cameron Parish

U. S. Senator
All 15 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
1,279 50% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
1,277 50% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Jefferson Davis Parish

U. S. Senator
All 45 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,179 53% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
3,780 47% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Acadia Parish

U. S. Senator
All 65 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,195 47% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
8,214 53% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Vermilion Parish

U. S. Senator
All 62 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
7,358 51% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
7,042 49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

St. Landry Parish

U. S. Senator
All 85 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
13,165 58% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
9,648 42% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Lafayette Parish

U. S. Senator
All 111 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
21,144 41% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
30,568 59% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated 

Evangeline Parish (half of which in district)

U. S. Senator
All 61 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Precinct
4,740 51% Mary Landrieu, D  Elected
4,563 49% Suzanne Haik Terrell, R  Defeated

Landrieu won every parish except for Acadia and Lafayette, and she trailed Terrell by only 2,600 out of 169,000 cast.  In other words, a Louisiana Democrat can compete in this district.  The key to victory, however, is to reduce Republican margins in Acadia and Lafayette Parishes.

District 7 can be won by a Democrat, but that Democrat must campaign early, raise funds early and receive support from the Louisiana Democratic Party and the DCCC.  2008 is also an ideal time to run a strong Democrat in District 7, as Federal Elections in Louisiana will no longer follow the jungle primary model of the state.  According to the Times-Picayune,

In 2008, voters will decide the next U.S. Senate and House elections through a series of party primaries and runoffs to select the most popular Democrat, Republican and third-party candidates. The party nominees will then meet in the November general election, along with any independent candidates.

Democrats and Republicans will have separate primaries for federal elections in 2008, in other words, obviating potential intraparty wars similar to the war between Mount and Cravens that cost Democrats the runoff in 2004. 

This situation is also advantageous to Democrats for another reason.  According to the same Times-Picayune article:

The legacy of that trend still shows up in Louisiana’s voter registration statistics long after other Southern states shifted en masse to the Republican Party. About 54 percent of voters are registered Democrats, compared with 24 percent Republican and 22 percent of other or no affiliation, according to the secretary of state.

If these voters arrive at the polls for the Democratic primary, they will most probably choose a candidate who can compete in all parishes, even Acadia and Lafayette Parishes.  This, I believe, can only be advantageous for Louisiana Democrats.

Now the difficult part is to recruit two or three Louisiana Democrats to run for Boustany’s seat.  There are, thankfully, many Democrats who hold state office in District 7, and I list their names and their offices below.  I also provide other pertinent information.

LOUISIANA STATE HOUSE – Eligible Candidates

Mickey FRITH – District 47
Cameron and Vermilion Parishes
Retired teacher/principal
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – won 64% against another Dem. in open primary

Elcie J. GUILLORY – District 34
Calcasieu Parish
Retired
elected 1993, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – won 70% against another Dem. in open primary

Gillis J. PINAC – District 42
Acadia Parish
Corporate Finance
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed in open primary

Mickey James GUILLORY – District 41
Acadia, St. Landry and Evangeline Parishes
Retired State Police Officer
elected 2003, final term begins 2011
2003 – defeated Republican 58/42 in open primary

Kenneth Eric LaFLEUR – District 38
Evangeline and St. Landry Parishes
Attorney
elected 1999, final term begins 2007
2003 – defeated Other party candidate 81-91 in open primary

Clara Guilbeau BAUDOIN – District 39
St. Landry, St. Martin and Lafayette Parishes
Public servant
elected 1995, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – defeated another Dem. and Other party candidate 59-29-12

Wilfred T. PIERRE – District 44
Lafayette Parish
Owner/Manager of Three Frenchmen Janitorial
elected 1991, term limited (ending 2007)
2003 – unopposed

5 Representatives in the state House must retire in 2007 as a result of term limits.  This will give them a year to campaign for the seat if they choose to run.  The other 2 Representatives also have strong resumes, and they too can be encouraged to run.

LOUISIANA STATE SENATE – Eligible Candidates

Willie L. MOUNT – District 27
Calcasieu Parish
Elected to Senate in 2000, eligible to serve through term ending 2012
Former Mayor of Lake Charles, 1992-1999
Candidate for US House in 2004, lost to a Republican 45/55 in runoff
2003 – unopposed

“Nick” GAUTREAUX – District 26
Vermilion, Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry Parishes
Elected to Senate in 2004, eligible to serve through term ending 2016
2003 – defeated a Republican 54/46 in open primary

MAYORS OF CITIES – Eligible Candidates

Randy ROACH – Mayor of Lake Charles
Calcasieu Parish, population 70,735
appointed 2000, reelected 2001, reelected 2005, defeating another Dem 85/15 in an open primary

Ron LeLEUX – Mayor of Sulphur
Calcasieu Parish, population 19,901
elected 2002, reelected 2006, defeated another Dem 80/20 in an open primary

Mark PIAZZA – Mayor of Abbeville
Acadia Parish, population 11,698
elected 2002, reelected 2006, defeated another Dem 59/41 in an open primary

Terry W. DUHON – Mayor of Jennings
Jefferson Davis Parish, population 10,712
elected 2003, reelected in 2005, defeating a Republican 70/30 in an open primary

James J. “Jimbo” PETITJEAN – Mayor of Rayne
Acadia Parish, population 8,537
in office since at least 1994, unopposed in 2006
(no website)

Hazel MYERS – Mayor of Scott
Lafayette Parish, population 7,855
in office since at least 1994, reelected in 2006, defeating another Dem 64/36

Charles E. LANGLINAIS – Mayor of Broussard
Lafayette and St. Martin Parishes, population 6,314
elected 2002, reelected in 2006, defeating a Republican 57/43 in an open primary

Glenn L. BRASSEAUX – Mayor of Carencro
Lafayette Parish, population 6,022

OTHER ELECTED OFFICIALS
C. Dale SITTIG – Louisiana Public Service Commission, Commissioner District 4
Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Catahoula, Evangeline, Grant, Jefferson Davis, LaSalle, Pointe Coupee, Rapides, St. Landry, St. Martin, Vermilion and Vernon Parishes
Louisiana House of Representatives, 1983-1995
Elected 1995, term limited, ending 2010
2004 – unopposed

Officials who were just elected to his or her office are not considered eligible, as are those who will not complete the first term of their office by 2007.

Resources available to activists include the Lafayette Democrats and the Southwest Louisiana Democrats websites and their mutual blog, where 2006 Democratic candidate Mike Stagg and other local Democrats post.  The Lafayette Dems have a weekly cable television show, Blue Mondays, where they interview prominent politicians such as Mary Landrieu.  Episodes of Blue Mondays are available on YouTube.  One of the bloggers at Lafayette Democrats, Anthony Fazzio, is very impressive.  Here are two videos with Fazzio, who is an attorney in Lafayette:

Perhaps Anthony Fazzio can be recruited.

Lafayette Democrats are also putting pressure on Boustany, who has voted against the Democrats’ 100 hours.  Here is the program:

I hope this helps, and I hope we will recruit and support a Democrat in LA-07 in 2008.  Not only will this help us gain a seat in the US House; it will also ensure we do not lose a seat in 2012 when Louisiana will most probably lose a Congressional seat.  Making every Louisiana House seat competitive will also aid Mary Landrieu’s 2008 Senate reelection bid.

Earlier today, the Democratic-controlled House of Represenatives passed another major plank of their 100 Hours platform: promoting stem cell research. The legislation sailed through the House with a strong, but not quite veto-proof margin of 253-174. 37 Republicans defected from their party line to vote for this sensible legislation, which as mcjoan describes, “allows addtional stem cell lines; imposes ethical guidelines; contains reporting guidelines; and authorizes federal funds only for stem cells from embryos that fertility clinics would discard.”

Many of those 37 defectors include names that shouldn’t be surprising: Dent, Kirk, Reichert, Porter, Pryce, Shays, Wilson, et cetera–Republicans who either barely beat back stiff challenges in 2006 or those representing purplish (or slightly bluish) territory. It would definitely not be in their best interests to oppose mainstream American values like promoting ethical embryonic stem cell research in the search for cures to end the suffering of millions of families nationwide. However, many House Republicans representing tight districts are sticking to their guns on opposing such legislation in defiance of public opinion, common sense and empathy. I’ve taken the liberty of compiling all of the worst culprits–those representing districts with a PVI of less than R+5.0. With Democrats controlling the legislation in the House, votes like these will be very useful in determining which Republicans are the most badly out of step with their districts.

Member	District	PVI
Bilirakis	FL-09	R+4.3
Buchanan	FL-13	R+4.1
Camp	MI-04	R+4.0
Chabot	OH-01	R+0.5
Diaz-Balart, M.	FL-25	R+4.4
English	PA-03	R+1.6
Feeney	FL-24	R+3.1
Ferguson	NJ-07	R+0.6
Gallegly	CA-24	R+4.8
Garrett	NJ-05	R+4.4
Graves	MO-06	R+4.8
Hayes	NC-08	R+3.0
Keller	FL-08	R+3.0
King	NY-03	D+2.1
Kline	MN-02	R+2.7
Knollenberg	MI-09	R+0.1
Latham	IA-04	D+0.4
Lobiondo	NJ-02	D+4.0
Manzullo	IL-16	R+4.5
McCotter	MI-11	R+1.2
McHugh	NY-23	R+0.2
Mica	FL-07	R+4.1
Miller	MI-10	R+4.4
Murphy	PA-18	R+2.2
Renzi	AZ-01	R+2.2
Reynolds	NY-26	R+2.6
Rogers	AL-03	R+4.3
Rogers	MI-08	R+1.9
Ros-Lehtinen	FL-18	R+4.3
Roskam	IL-06	R+2.9
Ryan	WI-01	R+2.2
Saxton	NJ-03	D+3.3
Smith	NJ-04	R+0.9
Tiberi	OH-12	R+0.7
Walberg	MI-07	R+2.5
Walsh	NY-25	D+3.4
Weldon	FL-15	R+4.1
Weller	IL-11	R+1.1

Check out some of those names: Walsh, Chabot, Ferguson, Reynolds, Renzi, King, Buchanan. Did they learn nothing from November 7, 2006?