Tag: 2008

Ah, how the siren song of sixty senate seats serenades us. With “just” nine more seats in the upper chamber, Democrats can, in theory, exercise total control over the legislative agenda. Republicans will no longer be able to obstruct the progress the American people demand. And with a Democrat 1600 Pennsylvania and Nancy Pelosi guiding the People’s House with a firm hand, we will see the dawn of a new golden age for the Blue.

Hey, anything is possible, and nine seats certainly looks a lot more realistic, if still distant, today than it did a year ago. But here’s a new question: Have we just walked right smack into the next Republican talking-point scare tactic? Bob Novak, the Prince of Darkness, might have just tipped his hand in bringing up this tidbit:

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), in his second term running the Senate Democratic campaign, publicly expresses doubt about picking up an additional nine seats to achieve a filibuster-free Senate. But he has been soliciting popular Democratic governors from Oklahoma, Kansas and Wyoming to run against incumbent Republican Senators from those “red” states – perhaps even to win the magic nine seats. The problem is that these governors do not relish running with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket.

At first I thought this was just a way for the Douchebag of Liberty to ding Schumer by setting up absurdly unrealistic expectations, and to perpetuate a largely baseless smear against Clinton. But one of my political mentors suggested that the fear of a filibuster-proof Senate might serve as a baseline defense, the ultimate desperation firewall, a means for the GOP to nationalize the elections in their favor. I think this view may be right.

Indeed, Chuck Schumer is no dummy – he didn’t raise the issue of a sixty-seat Dem majority himself. While liberal bloggers and even Beltway prognosticators have openly discussed this possibility for some time, Schumer only spoke on the topic because the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza broached it in an interview. But Novakula – who often serves as a mouthpiece for the conservative hive mind – looks like he’s trying to make an issue out of this.

On the other hand, Novak is as delusional as often as he is right. It may well be that hyping procedural arcana to stoke Fear of a Blue Planet is a bridge too far even for the GOP. After all, Republican attempts to thwart Democrats last year by invoking the specter of a Pelosi-led House did not seem all that successful. And it’s one thing to pin your hopes on people understanding what majorities mean – start jawing about this sixty-seat silliness and all but the savviest may well tune you out.

In any event, stay alert for this potential talking point. If you see any examples of Republicans flogging this, let us know.

(From the diaries – promoted by Trent Thompson)

There are only four days left until the Jim Himes Blograiser & Pub Quiz.  People are organizing themselves into teams, RSVP's are coming in, and we're getting a lot of love both from the netroots and local Democrats.  The support from the netroots community has been overwhelming.  

Currently 300 people have given to Jim through Act Blue.   I'd like to see that number jump to 350 by Saturday.  But to accomplish that we need your help.  

Jim Himes can defeat Chris Shays. I've heard him speak, watched him meet with voters and address their concerns.  I've seen his dedication to running a people powered campaign firsthand.  

The last time I was in a room with Chris Shays he bragged about major beneficiary of Rove's maneuvering in the 2006 election.  The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee has launched an investigation into whether the White House used Federal funds to aid Republicans in the last election cycle.  When asked about this by a reporter Shays said: “I milked that for all it was worth.”  Only last week Chris Shays threatened not to run again if his Caucus didn't give him the Chairmanship of that same committee.  And if voters in the 4th district reelected him and he was denied the Chairmanship? “I will resign.”  

Jim Himes can win this election and bring sanity back to Connecticut's 4th district.  While Chris Shays is worried about Chris Shays, Jim Himes' priorities are education, affordable housing, and a more responsible approach to national security.  We need real leadership in Congress, and Jim Himes is the man for the job.

Taking on a well funded incumbent is a tall order, and it won't happen without your support.  If you're in the area sign up for our Blograiser & Pub Quiz.  Meet Jim, and compete for the right to call yourself Jim's geekiest supporter.  If you can't attend physically, MyLeftNutmeg will have a live video stream of the event and a live blogging thread.  You can play along with us virtually.  Either way it's going to be a blast!

50 donors in 4 days is also a tall order, but I have no doubt that we can reach that goal.  Chris Shays is the last Republican Congressman standing in New England.  With your help we can make turn that last red dot on the map blue.

 

Politico has it right here

So, now that we're likely to knock out Sununu, is it time to concentrate on the last Republican member of congress in the state (Gregg)?

Looking into the 2008 senate elections, we've been given a good look at what everyone here thinks on the details and the general picture of the 2008 elections. Now it's time to look at a bunch of 2008 senate rankings from various groups.

CQ Politics ranks two Democratics seats as “leans Democratic” (Landrieu and Johnson) and four as being “Democrat favored” (Baucus, Harkin, Lautenberg, and Pryor) everyone else is considered “safe Democratic”.

The Republicans, on the other hand, start off with one seat being listed as “leans Democratic” (Open Virginia), two as “no clear favorite” (Open Colorado and Coleman), four as “leans Republican” (Open Nebraska, Collins, Smith, Sununu), and ten as being “Republican favored” (Stevens, Chambliss, Sessions, McConnell, Dole, Domenici, Inhofe, Graham, Alexander, and Cornyn). The rest are considered safe.

Cook ranks one Democrat as being a “leans Democratic” (Landrieu) and one as being “likely Democratic” (Johnson – Poss. Ret.) while everyone else is considered “safe”.

For the Republicans, he lists two seats as being “Toss-up” (Colorado and Virginia open seats), four as being “leans Republican” (Collins, open Nebraska, Coleman, and Sununu), and five as being “likely Republican” (Stevens – poss. ret., Domenici – poss. ret., Craig, Smith, and Dole), the rest are considered “safe” with Inhofe and Cochran considered as possible retirements.

Rothenberg considers three Republicans (Sununu and open seats for Virginia and Colorado) to be “toss-ups”; three Republicans (Coleman, Collins, and Smith) and one Democrat (Landrieu) to be “narrow advantage incumbent party”; five Republicans (Dole, Domenici, Open Nebraska, McConnell, and Stevens) and one Democrat (Johnson) to be “clear advantage incumbent party”; and everyone else is considered to be safe. *note, Rothenberg has only officially updated 'til Hagel's announced retirement

Also, Larry Sabato has his own senate predictions in addition to House and Governor's races with some analysis of the states if you care to read them.

I want to say that I personally don't agree with Cook's assessment that Sununu can be considered a “leans Republican”. Even if Shaheen doesn't jump in, this race is, at best, a toss-up and a lean-Democratic if she does jump in. That's just me though, what do you guys think?

In an ABQJournal opinion piece by Michael Coleman, Sen. Pete Domenici is compared to someone he would rather have no connection to — Sen. Larry Craig from Idaho.

Craig, as you may know, is the Idaho Republican arrested on June 11 by an airport police officer and pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct. Craig, according to police, used “a signal used by persons wishing to engage in lewd conduct” while in a men’s airport bathroom according to the police report. You can read the full police report here. Craig has since said he would like to rescind his guilty plea.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

So what does Craig have to do with Domenici?  Coleman lists how they are politically similar; both conservative Republicans.  Both supported the “dangerous and irresponsible” Yucca Mountain bill.  And both are supporters of President Bush.  Oh yeah, and “they’ve each hired a defense attorney to help absolve them of separate problems with the Senate Ethics Committee.”

This is a comparison Domenici — and any politician — will do anything to avoid.  He did himself no favors among the Republican base when he urged restraint in late August and asked Republican lawmakers to not rush to kick Craig out of the Senate.

“We cannot rush to judgment here,” Domenici said in a statement provided to the Journal. “The action being taken by the Senate Republican leadership is a good first step toward getting the facts. It’s important that we allow the legal process to run its course and the Senate Ethics Committee to conduct a thorough and fair investigation.”

Of course, the legal process did run its course; Craig pleaded guilty to the offense.  It is no surprise Domenici wants to drawn-out Senate Ethics Committee process to run its course as well — Domenici is under preliminary investigation by that same committee for his improper (though improper in a much different way than Craig’s actions) phone calls to David Iglesias.

This was bad timing for Domenici.

A day later, CNN and other news outlets released a tape of Craig’s interrogation by police after his arrest. In an effort to distance himself from Craig, his guilty plea and that squirmingly uncomfortable interrogation tape, Domenici- who is up for re-election- quickly announced that he would shed $2,500 in campaign cash given to him by Craig’s political action committee.

Oops.

Even more troublesome for Domenici, when the various Republican scandals are listed (you can see a selection of them here), Domenici’s name is in the same list as Craig and Ted Stevens.  Not exactly a distinguished list.

Whoa. The latest poll from SurveyUSA on the GOP presidential primary race in California shows Giulani’s lead having shrunk from 20% last month to just 2% a mere 5 days after Fred Thompson’s announcement on Jay Leno. If Thompson can pick off California, we could be moving a lot closer to a deadlocked GOP convention.

Obviously, this is just one poll, and it could be an outlier. All of us regular SSP readers know better than to jump to conclusions just yet. But to go from a 20% lead to a 2% lead with a 4.4% MOE strongly suggests something big could be going on here.

Crosstab analysis below the flip.

Thompson leads by 4% with men, but trails 12% with women. The partisan breakdown by gender is huge here: 63% of the likely GOP primary voters were men. Thompson remained completely flat with women since last month, while Romney gained 8% among women.

Among conservatives (58%), Thompson beats Giuliani 31% to 22% (with McCain and Romney trailing at 17% and 16% respectively). Moderates (33%) strongly go for Giuliani (40%). Thompson gains 8% with conservatives.

Blacks (3%) preferred Thompson to Giuliani 35% to 23%. Thompson gains 20% here, more than double his previous numbers.

Thompson leads by 1% among a crucial GOP voter segment, complete idiots people who think Global Warming is made-up, whereas more sensible GOP voters (relatively speaking here) prefer Giuliani by 5%.

76% of likely GOP voters oppose gay marriage, and they prefer Thompson by 1%

Gun owners prefer Thompson by 2%, the gunless go for Rudy by 7%.

Young voters prefer Rudy, and increasing agge correlates with increasing preference for Thompson.

Here’s a really odd one. Giuliani leads among Bush voters (85%) by 2%. Thompson leads among Kerry voters (7%) by 3%. However, those who think Bush is one of the Greatest American Presidents (26%) prefer Thompson by 2%, and those who think he is one of the worst (18%) prefer Giuliani by 6%.

So, why do we care? If Thompson wins CA and the South, and Romney wins the Mountain West, eastern New England, and gives a strong showing in the Midwest (winning IA, MI, and perhaps some of the Great Plains states), and Giuliani does his thing in the Mid-Atlantic, Illinois, and Swing States like FL, MO, OH, and CO, then we could be headed for a deadlocked contest that goes to the convention for a resolution. This would force the GOP candidates to spend money on the primaries rather than saving for the General election. It would also increase the chances of the GOP’s weakest candidate, Mitt Romney, getting nominated and then crushed by the Democratic nominee in the general.

(From the diaries. Maybe he’s going to anounce once more that he’s not going to announce. – promoted by James L.)

Don Walton confirms it:

Sen. Chuck Hagel will announce Monday he’ll not seek re-election next year.

Hagel also will tell an Omaha news conference he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008, clamping a lid on speculation he might be pondering a late-inning presidential bid.

In a prelude to Monday’s announcement, he conferred Friday with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Later, Hagel gathered his Washington staff together to inform them of his decision, according to sources close to the senator.

Hagel’s departure at the end of 2008 will bring an end to a meteoric 12-year Senate ride that propelled him to national prominence as the most outspoken Republican opponent of President Bush’s Iraq war policies.

Michigan Republicans are going ga-ga for native son Mitt Romney, according to the latest ARG poll.

Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 39%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (13%) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (12%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

(h/t – Pollster)

Analysis below the flip.

If the Republicans nominate Romney, we will win the White House in 2008 easily – every head-to-head matchup shows Romney getting crushed. Do you think a Romney win is far-fetched? Looks at the GOP primary schedule so far (subject to change, obviously):

Wyoming, 1/5: No polling yet, but this is Mormon country. Romney will win here.
Iowa, 1/14: Romney leading by 10% in the latest poll.
Michigan, 1/15: Romney leading by 26%, and was born here.
Nevada, 1/19: Mormon territory. Romney leading by 10%.
South Carolina, 1/19: Trends are pointing towards a win for Thompson, but the most recent poll (ARG) has Giuliani up by 5. I predict Thompson will take it though.
New Hampshire, 1/22: Romney up by 4%

Of course, this will be followed by Florida, which will likely be a big win for Giuliani, and then Maine – the last time Maine was polled was in May, when McCain was still leading in New Hampshire. I think a strong performance in New Hampshire could lead to a Romney win in Maine. That would have Romney racking up double-digit victories in the first 3 contests, winning 5 of the first 6 states, and 6 of the first 8 states.

That’s a pretty strong position to head in to Super Tuesday, isn’t it? Now, granted, Giuliani is likely score major victories on Super Tuesday – California, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, for example, and probably Illinois and Colorado. It could also be a good day for Thompson, with wins in Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and possibly Missouri and Arkansas (if Huckabee drops). Romney will pick up Utah, and if McCain has dropped out, he could net Arizona as well. With the momentum he’s generated, could it make him competitive in Super Tuesday states that have not been polled (or not polled in the past 3 months) such as Minnesota, Delaware, West Virginia, Alaska, Oklahoma, and North Dakota?

Giuliani will certainly perform well in most of the biggest states in the union: CA, NY, FL, IL, PA, and NJ, with very strong numbers in the mid-atlantic region. Thompson’s powerbase will be in the mighty Southeast. If Thompson draws enough votes to win Virginia, Giuliani might not win enough delegates for a majority. In order to compete with Giuliani, Romney will need strong performances in the remaining 3 areas of the country: New England, the Midwest, and the West.

In New England, he’s leading in New Hampshire, and his connections as former Governor of Massachusetts combined with the collapse of the McCain campaign could help boost Romney over Giuliani. In the West, he has a strong Mormon base in UT, NV, ID, and WY (not to mention being CEO of the organizing committee for the Salt Lake City Olympics), and the latest polling puts him within 1% in Oregon and second place behind McCain in Arizona (New Mexico, Washington, and Colorado look like Giuliani zones for now). That leaves the rather underpolled Midwest – which is where Romney was born and leads in MI and IA. Could IN, MN, and the Great Plains follow suit? If Romney can exploit his midwestern roots (possibly with a little ethanol support added in), a Romney nomination might actually happen. And for us, that’s a Good Thing.

Fred Thompson’s officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he’s the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.

Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled.
North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) – Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4%
Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1)
Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) – Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn’t even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.

Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South – latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.

So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney’s popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.

A Republican congressman leaving threatening voice mails for a couple who had backed a GOP rival because they highlighted the money he took from the gambling industry? Let me guess, is he a member of the Club for Growth? Ding ding! Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO-05) is a “growth” all right… one that ought to be surgically removed from the body politic in the next congressional election.

Below the flip, try to figure out whether or not he returned the money.

Federal records show that Lamborn received a $1,000 check Jan. 30, 2007, from the IGT PAC. Records also show receipt of $500 from Murphy last summer.

Lamborn said he has returned both contributions, but he could not say when that was done.

Nancy Brown, a spokeswoman for Jones Vargas, a law firm in Reno, Nev., that represents IGT, said the company’s PAC sent a $1,000 contribution to Lamborn in January. She said Lamborn returned the check, although she could not provide the date of the return.

Federal records do not show that the check was returned.

Hmmmm, sure ya did, Doug. The couple in question supported Jeff Crank, Lamborn’s top GOP rival in last year’s 6-way Republican primary, who barely lost by a margin of 27% to 25.4%. The wife worked for Crank as a scheduler for two months. Is Jeff coming back to challenge Lamborn in 2008? You bet. The district has a PVI of 15.7, however, so even with a bruising GOP primary, it will be tough for any Democrat to win – last go-round, Jay Fawcett lost by 19%. So far this district lacks any confirmed or rumored Democratic candidates, and I couldn’t find any info suggesting Fawcett would try again.

The Denver Post has the text of the messages, including this gem:

And like I said I’d rather resolve this on a Scriptural level but if you are unwilling to do that I will be forced to take other steps, which I would rather not have to do.

Race Tracker for CO-05