Tag: Senate

So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens’ indictment dominating the Senate news, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain’t guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

(Just so you know, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.)

FYI, whenever I refer to fundraising numbers in the races, I’m using the latest numbers we know of, from the end of June 2008.  “Q2” refers to the period of April to June 2008, the most recent quarter that we have the fundraising numbers for.  Major hat tip to Senate Guru for putting all the numbers in an easy to read table format.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement.  Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating.  That’s freaking unheard of.  He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year.  Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore.  Not a single poll shows Gilmore getting even 40%.  Warner’s sitting on 20+ point leads.  And oh yeah, Warner also pulled in almost $3 million in Q2, while Gilmore raised less than $500K.  To top it off, Gilmore’s been burning through the little cash he got, and ended up with less than $117K left at the end of Q2, which was almost $5 million less than what Warner was sitting on.  This is about as lopsided as you’re gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly after Pete Domenici (R) announced his retirement.  Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years who ran for President in 1976.  Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s.  Rep. Steve Pearce (R) won a bitter GOP primary over Heather Wilson, ending her career in Congress.  So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation was running for this Senate seat!  The polling just keeps getting better and better for Udall, as he’s hit the 60% mark in several polls now. I wrote back in May that I expected to see a sort of “unity bounce” once the GOP primary was decided.  Instead, the opposite happened, and Udall’s numbers went up even more.  Combine this with Udall having over 5 times as much cash on hand as Pearce, and Udall would be number 1 on the list if it weren’t for Mark Warner.

3. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum.  Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race.  But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor?  Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008.  The latest Rasmussen poll has her leading 50%-45%.  A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.  The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the first two quarters this year, Sununu still has almost $3 million more cash on hand than Shaheen has.  That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I’m not sure how much that money advantage is really going to help Sununu.

4. Alaska: 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but earlier this week, he was indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp.  This started when the FBI raided his home last June.  Several Veco executives have already pled guilty to bribing Ted’s son Ben, who was the former Alaska state senate president, with former Veco CEO Bill Allen having admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens.  Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race.  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  Even before the indictment, several polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens.  In the wake of the indictments, Rasmussen now has Begich leading Stevens 50%-37%.  Jury selection will begin on September 24, and Stevens wants the trial to take place before the election.  What remains to be seen is if he’ll survive the August 26th primary, and even if he does, if the Alaska GOP would try to replace him with someone else.  But Rasmussen also showed that among some of the other GOP challengers, Begich leads them by even bigger margins, so it’s unclear if that will help the GOP out.  On the fundraising side, Begich pulled in over $1 million in Q2, over a quarter million more than Stevens brought in, though Stevens still has twice as much cash on hand as Begich, though that may not help him now.

5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate.  Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’ll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006.  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  At the end of Q2, Udall was sitting on an almost $4 million warchest, with Schaffer over $1 million behind.  Schaffer also has close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands, and was helping out Aspect Energy push an oil deal that would hurt U.S.-Iraq policy.  Recently, though, some right-wing front groups have been running TV and radio ads filled with falsehoods attacking Udall.  That may explain why Rasmussen shows the race getting narrower, though Udall still leads.  The other polls still show Udall with some kind of lead (other than Quinnipiac, though its crosstabs make it look like they undersampled Democrats), and not a single poll has come out with Schaffer holding any kind of lead.  Update: 9News in Colorado went through one of those attack ads and found every single statement the ad made was misleading, false, or conflating opinion with fact.

6. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R).  The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith.  Smith seems worried, as his recent commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and fighting Bush!  Merkley raised over half a million more than Smith did in Q2, but much of that was spent on the primary, and now Smith has almost $4 million more in his campaign war chest at the end of Q2.  The DSCC has stepped in with an $850,000 cable TV ad buy starting in September to help out Merkley.  Also, the latest Rasmussen poll now shows Merkley with a lead for the first time ever in any poll, at 43%-41%.  In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

7. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won’t have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years.  Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he’s won elected office previously.  But that seat then went blue when Travis Childers (D) won it in May.  So things are changing even in Mississippi.  That has to be a shot in a arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D).  However, Wicker showed himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1.  But in Q2, the two were almost even in fundraising, each raising a little over $800K.  The latest polls still show this to be a tight race, with Wicker slightly up.  It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state.  The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate.  The Rasmussen poll showing Wicker up by 6 seems to also have a 34% black breakdown in their sample.  So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove.  And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November.  That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi.  As a result, Wicker went up with a TV ad back in May introducing himself to voters.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The polls had been steadily favoring Franken, until late April when a story came out that Franken owed $70,000 in back taxes to 17 different states.  Now, it turns out that as a traveling comedian, having visited lots of states, he was supposed to pay taxes to those individual states, but paid them instead all to the states he had homes in.  Then the GOP hammered Franken for a Playboy article he wrote over a decade ago, calling it “juicy porn“.  As for the fallout, there are very conflicting stories.  SurveyUSA has Coleman up by double-digits, while Rasmussen has Franken up by 3.  However, the SurveyUSA poll shows Coleman’s best support comes from young people, which doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense.  Combined with their presidential poll, which shows Obama TIED with McCain among young voters, and something doesn’t quite make sense in their numbers.  The Senate poll also shows the electorate will be made up of 32% Republicans, only 33% Democrats, and 21% Independents.  It strangely leaves out 14% of the population.  So take that poll with a huge grain of salt.  Plus, Franken did outraise Coleman for three straight quarters until Q2, when they both raised over $2.3 million, with Coleman getting $50,000 more, though Coleman ended Q2 with $3 million more in his coffers.

9. North Carolina: After Kay Hagan easily won her primary in May, the polls showed a primary bump, with some polls even putting her ahead of incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R).  That led Dole to fire her campaign manager.  Then her campaign asked the DSCC and NRSC not to spend money on the race.  Um, isn’t that’s the whole point of those campaign committees?  However, since the primary bump, Dole’s lead has gone back to about 10 points.  But something to note about those polls, they all seem to underestimate the black turnout.  In 2004, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, while these polls have a sample that’s 22% or less black.  Conventional wisdom says black turnout will be significantly higher than in 2004, so keep that in mind.  Hagan’s been keeping pace in fundraising, pulling in 91% as much as Dole did in Q2, though Hagan still trails by a little over a 2:1 margin in cash on hand.  Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

10. Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R).  But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent Rasmussen poll has some good news for Allen, with him only trailing Collins 49%-42%.  Allen’s fundraising was pretty strong in Q2, with both him and Collins netting a little over $1 million each, though he trails in cash on hand by $2 million.  The DSCC has now reserved $5 million for ad buys in the state.  And it will be needed, as the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins.  I mean, really suck.  When they consistently let Maine GOP officials shill for Collins in letters to the editor without letting the readers know that fact, you know something’s up.

11. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But how endangered that really is remains to be seen.  She was still able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP.  Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Neely Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat.  (Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.)  As for how endangered Landrieu really is, well, there’s lots of conflicting data.  On the one hand, hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making the state more red than it used to be.  Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected.  On the other hand, Mary’s brother Mitch won the Lt. Governorship by an even bigger margin.  And the win by Don Cazayoux (D) in LA-06, a Republican district, may bode well for Landrieu.  Kennedy did outraise Landrieu in Q1, but she outraised him in Q2, and has almost $3 million more in cash on hand than he does.  All the non-Zogby polls show Landrieu ahead; the question is by how much.  A boost came to the Landrieu campaign when the Huffington Post obtained an NRSC memo from 2004 that attacked Kennedy when he ran for the Senate that year… as a Democrat.  After ripping him for being so wrong for Louisiana, they’re suddenly going to say he’s the right person for the job?

12. Texas: Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R).  State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  The biggest news this summer so far is probably the Big Bad John ad Cornyn’s people released, which drew mockery and laughter from just about everywhere.  Then the Texas Medical Association rescinded their endorsement of Cornyn after he and other GOP Senators blocked the Medicare bill that would have prevented 10% cuts in Medicare payments to doctors, and the American Medical Association said they were going to run ads against Senators like Cornyn who voted against it.  But no polls have been taken of this race since June, when Rasmussen showed Noriega down by 13, though Cornyn was under the 50% mark.  However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in Q1.  Noriega did better in Q2, raising almost $1 million, but Cornyn finished Q2 with over 10 times as much cash on hand.  And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter.  Unless some polls come out showing this is a closer race, this will remain in Tier II.  Update: And right after writing this, Rasmussen shows Noriega down by 10 points, with Cornyn under the 50% mark.  So I’ve moved it back to Tier I status.

13. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats.  And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident.  But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo and State Auditor Crit Luallen both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford hasn’t exactly been a netroots favorite in the past, having ticked off a lot of Democrats in the past by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after he lost the primary to Chandler.  But it looks like Kentucky Democrats quickly unified behind Lunsford and are all pledging to do their part to defeat McConnell.  McConnell has a HUGE warchest of over $9 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund.  And this quote from Lunsford after winning the primary is nice to read.  “[McConnell is] going to spend millions of dollars trying to destroy my reputation.  But I don’t care how many names he’s going to call me, because in January he’s going to call me ‘Senator.'”  Well played, sir.  Things like that will help assuage the netroots.  Two recent polls show Lunsford behind by about 10 points.  Lunsford actually brought in more money in Q2, largely due to loaning himself $2.5 million to keep pace, but McConnell still has almost 7 times as much cash on hand.  But by keeping pace, if Lunsford can force McConnell (and his campaign coffers) to stay in Kentucky instead of going to help other Senators, that will only serve to benefit the other Democrats running for Senate.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom… ah… incident, it’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he was absolutely blitzkrieged in Q1, with Risch raising over 4 ½ times as much money as LaRocco raised, and again outraised in Q2, leaving Risch with over 4 times as much cash on hand as LaRocco.  A recent Research 2000 poll showed LaRocco down by 10 points, 42%-32%.  The wild card in this race may be independent rancher Rex Rammell, who despises Risch, and may be able to pull away some of Risch’s support.  Rammell actually outraised LaRocco, and has a little more cash on hand, and will spend that money attacking Risch.  There are also two other right-wing candidates on the ballot that will split the conservative vote even more.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the racein mid-March.  Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks, and brought in a decent haul in Q2 also.  Rasmussen had given encouraging news in June, showing Slattery within single digits, but in July, their poll showed Slattery down by 27 points.  There are signs, however, that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq.  Except… the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991.  So… voting for that war makes you unable to criticize this war?  Um, OK, that’s some great Republican logic for you.  And then, they attacked Slattery for missing a lot of votes in his last year in Congress.  Why only that year?  Because that was the year Slattery was back in Kansas running for Governor.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling.  State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, is now the formal Democratic nominee, having won his primary last week by a 20-point margin.  Rice and Inhofe could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues.  Rice pulled in decent fundraising numbers in Q2, but still trails Inhofe by over $1.7 million.  A Research 2000 poll from June showed Rice down by 22 points.  Those two factors would normally make this a Tier III race, but then came the news that veteran political operatives Geri Prado and Phil Singer have joined Rice’s staff.  Those two both worked on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and for the DSCC.

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) as the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).  But, Jeff Sessions does play a role in the Don Siegelman case.  And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes piece about Siegelman before it aired.  So if Sessions gets ensnared in this scandal, his seat may not be so safe.  And the prospect of that, which grows dimmer by the day, is the only thing keeping this from going into the “safe” category.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn’t seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race in March.  Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he’s run a statewide race before.  And in just 12 days, Martin raised $346,675, which dropped a lot of jaws.  Martin would first have to get by DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who is black and is depending on African-American turnout to win the primary runoff on August 5th.  Except… Jones voted for Bush… twice, still doesn’t know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling Democrats “losers”.  Way to, um, not endear yourself to the netroots.  The 3rd and 4th place finishers in the primary have already endorsed Martin in the runoff.  Remember, Chambliss ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face.  If Martin bests Jones in the primary next Tuesday, I’ll move this up to Tier II, as polling shows Martin would at least be competitive, though he’d still be seriously behind in funds.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that doesn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor of the state.  Kleeb easily won his primary against Republican-turned-Democrat Tony Raimondo, but the polls show Kleeb still has quite a ways to go.  The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb down by over 25 points to Johanns.  The one bright spot was that Kleeb outraised Johanns in Q2, though he still trails in cash on hand by almost $800K.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) is running again, but as he is already 84 years old, his age is always going to be a concern.  His poll numbers also don’t look that good, but no New Jersey politician’s numbers ever look really good.  He easily beat back a primary challenge from Rep. Rob Andrews.  On the GOP side, it’s been a wild roller coaster ride as multiple candidates have been declaring, and then dropping out of the race, before they finally settled on former Congressman Dick Zimmer.  Blue Jersey has a wild recap of it all.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006.  His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him.  And the polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, to boot.

Tennessee: Former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke entered the race in late February.  It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.  Tuke has a little over a quarter million on hand, while Alexander has over three million.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)*

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

*South Carolina is now a safe seat, as Lindsey Graham easily won his primary in June, and Michael Cone ended up barely losing the Democratic primary by 0.6% to Bob Conley, a Republican-turned-Democrat who voted for Ron Paul in the South Carolina primary.

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand at the beginning of August.  Things can still change, people who only pay attention after Labor Day may shake things up, and we won’t know exactly what the national mood will be 3 months from now.  Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it.  🙂

Senate Guru is on strike!  What are the Guru’s demands?  To get the Guru back to blogging, we need to raise seven twenty-dollar bills each for red state Democratic Senate candidates Jim Martin, Jim Slattery, and Ronnie Musgrove on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.  Your Andrew Jacksons will go toward a great cause: dislodging Shameless Saxby Chambliss, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, and ethically questionable Roger Wicker from the U.S. Senate.  So, please, this weekend, send your twenties to these competitive Democrats in red states via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and get the Guru back to blogging!

You have seen the latest poll by Rasmussen:  Mark Begich 50%, Ted Stevens 41%. Not only is Mark an excellent candidate, but it looks like he will actually be a Democratic Senator from Alaska.

If you are in the DC area, you have the chance to meet Mark Begich on Wednesday, July 23rd. Blue Catapult PAc is hosting the event at a Dupont Circle watering hole:

Have a Beer with Alaska Democratic Senate candidate and Anchorage Mayor, Mark Begich

Wednesday, July 23, 6 to 7:30PM

at James Hoban’s Restaurant (1 Dupont Circle – South Side of Circle)

We’ll be in the back room.

Suggested Contribution: $35 – $25 for those under 30 – ($70/$125/$250 are other contribution levels)

Here’s our summary of FEC filings for the quarter that ended on June 30, for the hot Senate races. (House filings are here.) The left column is total receipts for the second quarter. (This is based on slightly different criteria as ‘total raised’ from the House list, as ‘total receipts’ doesn’t include transfers between committees.) The right column is current cash on hand. All dollar amounts are in thousands.

There’s one omission: Kansas reports are not yet available, as their reporting period for 2Q covers April 1 to July 16. One other caveat: Oklahoma covers the period April 1 to July 9, although Rice’s report only runs through June 30. If there are any other races you want to know about, just ask in the comments.

State	Candidate	Party	2Q Receipts	CoH
Alaska	Mark Begich	D	$1,035	$804
Alaska	Ted Stevens	R-inc.	$745	$1,681
Colorado	Bob Schaffer	R	$1,431	$2,817
Colorado	Mark Udall	D	$2,039	$3,958
Idaho	Larry LaRocco	D	$233	$242
Idaho	Rex Rammell	I	$263	$244
Idaho	Jim Risch	R	$637	$1,022
Kansas	Pat Roberts	R	$971	$2,870
Kansas	Jim Slattery	D	$624	$599
Kentucky	Bruce Lunsford	D	$3,098	$1,341
Kentucky	Mitch McConnell	R-inc.	$3,021	$9,136
Louisiana	Mary Landrieu	D-inc.	$1,541	$5,515
Louisiana	John Kennedy	R	$1,458	$2,706
Maine	Tom Allen	D	$1,001	$3,129
Maine	Susan Collins	R-inc.	$1,056	$5,133
Minnesota	Norm Coleman	R-inc.	$2,390	$7,209
Minnesota	Al Franken	D	$2,337	$4,216
Mississippi	Ronnie Musgrove	D	$821	$716
Mississippi	Roger Wicker	R-inc.	$1,050	$2,953
Nebraska	Mike Johanns	R	$683	$1,247
Nebraska	Scott Kleeb	D	$700	$454
New Hampshire	Jeanne Shaheen	D	$1,630	$2,158
New Hampshire	John Sununu	R-inc.	$1,135	$5,105
New Jersey	Frank Lautenberg	D-inc.	$1,849	$1,291
New Jersey	Dick Zimmer	R	$752	$411
New Mexico	Steven Pearce	R	$1,209	$533
New Mexico	Tom Udall	D	$2,168	$2,889
North Carolina	Elizabeth Dole	R-inc.	$1,690	$2,706
North Carolina	Kay Hagan	D	$1,538	$1,214
Oklahoma	Jim Inhofe	R-inc.	$890	$2,459
Oklahoma	Andrew Rice	D	$452	$748
Oregon	Jeff Merkley	D	$1,913	$569
Oregon	Gordon Smith	R-inc.	$1,332	$4,452
Texas	Big John Cornyn	R-inc.	$1,697	$9,368
Texas	Rick Noriega	D	$966	$916
Virginia	Jim Gilmore	R	$480	$117
Virginia	Mark Warner	D	$2,929	$5,103

Democratic challengers who outraised Republican incumbents for the quarter: Mark Begich (AK), Bruce Lunsford (KY), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), and Jeff Merkley (OR)

Democratic contenders who outraised Republican opponents in open seats: Mark Udall (CO), Scott Kleeb (NE), Tom Udall (NM), and Mark Warner (VA)

Republican challengers who outraised Democratic incumbents: none

Good news almost all around; you have to drop all the way down to Texas to find a Democratic contender who’s lagging in both receipts and cash on hand. One other small thing to note: check out Rex Rammell in Idaho (the conservative independent with a vendetta against Jim Risch). He’s putting his money where his mouth is, and already starting to do TV advertising. If he pulls away significant votes on Risch’s right flank, LaRocco might actually have a shot at Idaho.

Charlie Cook’s folks have just released new ratings for four key senate races. Thay are as follows:

Oregon: Lean R to Toss-Up

North Carolina: Likely R to Lean R

New Mexico: Toss-Up to Lean D

Kentucky: Solid R to Likely R

The blue bus keeps on rolling. I’ll keep you updated on any further changes for today.

Democratic Nebraska Senate candidate Scott Kleeb outraised former Bush Administration official and governor of Nebraska Mike Johanns in Q2. Johanns raised nearly $683,000 while Kleeb raised nearly $700,000.

This is huge news for Kleeb. Johanns has a head start since he started campaigning in September and Scott only got in the race in February but since February Scott has raised more then Johanns. Still those almost five months gave Johanns close to 2 million dollars and it’s important to close the gap. Scott is a great candidate and if we want to get to 60 seats and get stuff done in 2009 then we’re going to need to win this race. Nebraska native Mike Lux has made that case well.

This is a key race that is winnable but Kleeb needs all the support we can give him. He’s very close to the $1,000,000 mark. Let’s put him over the top. We’ve got to stand with those who stand with us.

To get more of a feel for Scott check out this ad from his primary campaign.

And check out his slick newly redesigned website here.

Yes We Kleeb!

As a nation, we must provide high-quality, affordable, and portable coverage for all Americans. Increasingly, this is not just a moral imperative but an economic necessity as the high cost of health care coverage is putting American business, large and small alike, at a weaker competitive advantage with their overseas competitors. Working with all parties, we must guarantee all Americans access to affordable health plans, regardless of income or illness. – Scott Kleeb

Over the last few months, I’ve come out with a variety of indexes that focused on the potential efficiencies of electing various new senators and representatives (for instance, in terms of the largest overall right-to-left shift, here and here). Part of this is to help netroots donors have some quantitative basis for seeing how their meager dollars might be best invested.

One thing that’s been missing from the equation, though, is any sense of how effectively those netroots dollars will be spent: not in terms of whether the campaign is likely to make good decisions (which is unknowable), but in terms of whether the media markets where an election takes place are a good buy. Think about how much further one netroots dollar goes in a race in Wyoming or Alaska, where there are few eyeballs to reach and the media markets are cheap, versus a race in New York or Texas. And yet, the result is the same: one more senator or representative.

Last week, Nate at 538.com had a few very interesting posts on this topic (creating the Return on Investment Index, and, then analyzing specific states’ media markets). Nate’s concept of efficiency turned largely on the idea of ‘wasted eyeballs,’ in other words, advertising in markets that bleed across state lines and where therefore ads run in front of non-targeted voters. However, his analysis was focused on the presidential race, where the concept of ‘wasted eyeballs’ may be overrated as a problem; after all, even if ads run in swing state markets bleed over into non-swing states, the voters in those states are voting in the same presidential election too. It may not maximize efficiency in the way a skilled media buyer would like, but it’s all part of a bigger whole.

We don’t have that luxury in Senate, and especially House races, though. Take Virginia as a case in point: Mark Warner needs to advertise in the Washington DC market in order to reach suburban northern Virginia voters, but that means paying top dollar in one of the nation’s most expensive media markets to tell millions of Marylanders to vote for him. (Of course, he can afford it, so don’t break out the tiny violin yet.) Kentucky may be even worse from a pure efficiency standpoint; none of its markets are brutally expensive, but blanketing all of Kentucky means advertising in Evansville, Cincinnati, and Nashville.

Over the flip, let’s look at all of the competitive Senate pickup opportunities. I’ll explain the methodology and the asterisked races after the table; for now, all you need to know is that the lower the number on the right is, the less expensive the race is.

State	Markets	Score
Alaska	Anchorage (141) Fairbanks (32) Juneau (24)	197
Maine	Portland (407) Bangor (143) Presque Isle (31)	581
Idaho	Boise (230) Idaho Falls (115) Spokane (390) Twin Falls (60) Salt Lake City (negligible)	795
Nebraska	Omaha (400) Lincoln (274) North Platte (15) Sioux City (157) Denver (1,415 *) Cheyenne (negligible) Rapid City (negligible) Wichita (negligible)	846 *
New Mexico	Albuquerque (654) El Paso (291) Amarillo (190) Odessa (negligible)	1,135
Oregon	Portland (1,100) Eugene (229) Medford (163) Bend (54) Yakima (negligible) Boise (negligible) Spokane (negligible)	1,545
Mississippi	Jackson (328) Memphis (658) Biloxi (136) Columbus (187) Hattiesburg (105) Meridian (71) Greenwood (77) New Orleans (672 *)	1,562 *
Kansas	Kansas City (904) Wichita (447) Topeka (171) Joplin (154) Tulsa (negligible) Lincoln (negligible) St. Joseph (negligible)	1,676
Oklahoma	Oklahoma City (665) Tulsa (510) Sherman (124) Wichita Falls (155) Ft. Smith (273) Shreveport (negligible) Joplin (negligible) Amarillo (negligible)	1,727
Colorado	Denver (1,415) Colorado Spgs. (315) Grand Junction (65) Albuquerque (negligible)	1,795
Minnesota	Minneapolis (1,653) Duluth (169) Rochester (143) Fargo (234) Mankato (51) La Crosse (negligible)	2,250
New Hampshire	Boston (2,375 *) Burlington (326) Portland (407)	3,108 *
Kentucky	Louisville (643) Lexington (479) Cincinnati (880) Evansville (289) Bowling Green (75) Paducah (383) Charleston WV (478) Nashville (928 *) Knoxville (negligible) Tri-Cities (negligible)	3,227 *
North Carolina	Charlotte (1,020) Raleigh (985) Greensboro (652) Greenville NC (270) Wilmington (168) Greenville SC (815) Norfolk (negligible) Myrtle Beach (negligible) Atlanta (negligible) Chattanooga (negligible)	3,910
Virginia	Washington DC (2,253) Norfolk (705) Richmond (511) Roanoke (440) Tri-Cities (324) Charlottesville (70) Harrisonburg (86) Bluefield (negligible) Raleigh (negligible) Greensboro (negligible)	4,389
Texas	Dallas (2,336) Houston (1,939) San Antonio (760) Austin (589) Waco (311) Harlingen (319) Corpus Christi (192) Laredo (64) Beaumont (167) Tyler (256) Sherman (124) Victoria (30) Wichita Falls (155) Abilene (113) San Angelo (53) Amarillo (190) Lubbock (152) Odessa (135) El Paso (291) Shreveport (negligible)	8,176

The middle column lists each media market that’s in the state in question. The number next to each media market is the number of thousands of TV households in that media market, according to most recent Nielsen numbers. (I deemed some markets ‘negligible,’ if they were out-of-state markets that barely spilled over the border and represented 2% or less of the state’s total population, thus unlikely to be part of a media buy.) The number on the right is simply the sum of all the TV households in the relevant markets, in other words, the number of households that need to be paid for in order to more or less blanket the state.

As you can see, there’s a pretty clear correlation between the expensiveness of a state and how populous it is. (As Nate points out, the cost per household may vary a bit from market to market, depending on the desirability of that market to advertisers. For the most part, though, the basic rule is that the more eyeballs you need to reach, the more dollars you’re going to pay. So the larger the number on the right is, the more expensive your race is going to be.) However, there can be some variations, depending on the ‘wasted eyeballs’ factor. States with nice clean media markets that correspond roughly to state borders are cheaper than some states that have smaller populations but more porous boundaries (for instance, Oregon is cheaper to blanket than Kansas, while Colorado is cheaper to blanket than Kentucky).

There are a few races that I asterisked; generally, it’s because of the presence of an out-of-state market that covers more than 2% of the state’s population but that’s also cripplingly expensive to compete in and that probably wouldn’t be part of an intelligent media buying strategy. Nebraska is a prime example: about 4% of the state’s population (most of the big empty western part) is served by the Denver market. But c’mon: you aren’t going to see Scott Kleeb TV ads running in Denver. Smart media buying would probably focus on AM radio or direct mail in that part of the state instead. (Adding Denver at 1,415 to the calculus boosts the net cost in Nebraska to 2,261.)

Likewise, a few counties in Mississippi (3% of the state’s population) are in the New Orleans market. (Adding New Orleans at 672 boosts the cost in Mississippi to 2,234, making it a much less attractive prospect. Mississippi also takes in the somewhat expensive Memphis market, but that covers 12% of the state’s voters and can’t safely be ignored.) Also, the Nashville market covers 5% of Kentucky’s population. Bruce Lunsford can pay for that if he wants to, but adding Nashville at 928 boosts the already high costs in Kentucky up to 4,155.

Finally, there’s the question of New Hampshire. The bottom half of the state is considered part of the Boston market, but there is one affiliate based in Manchester that is considered to operate within the larger Boston market. (As Nate points out, it may owe its entire existence to New Hampshire’s weird role in the presidential race and the targeted ad blitz that results.) Not really knowing how that shakes out in terms of ad rates, I’m leaving New Hampshire as is, but figure that the actual costs in New Hampshire are probably lower. [Update: According to DavidNYC, in 2006, the House candidates in NH mostly focused on the Manchester affiliate and steered clear of Boston in general, although the DCCC did a whole-Boston-market moneybomb right before the election.]

And of course, there are the usual caveats that TV and radio advertising are only a portion of a sane advertising strategy, which includes everything from internet and direct mail down to the totally unglamorous world of yard signs and stickers. This is only a rough guide to give you an idea of how expensive a particular race may be, and how far your dollar might go toward making a difference.

I’ll take a look at the House races using the same method tomorrow.

Last week I wrote about Where We Can Make the Most Progress in the House, where I tried to measure the biggest probable right-to-left swings that might result from the 2008 election in the House (the biggest one would be swapping out Dana Rohrabacher for Debbie Cook, in case you missed it). In the comments, the question came up of what would happen if I ran the same analysis for the competitive 2008 Senate races.

I have been reluctant to do so, because when I did the House, I relied on a demographic model for predicting which caucus new House members might join and, from there, predicting their likely DW-Nominate score. That just doesn’t work with the Senate: demographics-wise, states don’t break down as cleanly as do House districts. And Senators tend to disobey their states’ partisan lean much more so than Representatives: consider that we have two moderate Republican senators in one of our bluest states (Maine), two populist Democratic senators in one of our reddest states (North Dakota), and the swing states in the middle give us as wide a range of personalities as Russ Feingold and John Sununu.

So, I decided to try a different approach, more speculative than I generally prefer, where I tried to project prospective Democratic senators’ voting preferences by averaging out the scores of already sitting senators who seem to have some commonalities with them. As a vague rule of thumb, I tried to use one senator who had the most in common geographically and one who seemed to have the most in common ideologically and/or stylistically, although these categories pretty thoroughly blended. Here’s a case in point: Mark Warner. I decided he had a lot in common with Jim Webb (- 0.359), a fellow Virginian and someone else who knows how to connect with white working class voters, and also with Joe Biden (- 0.338), another mid-Atlantic senator with a mix of liberal intentions and pro-corporate leanings. Average those, and voila: Warner projects at – 0.349. (Some of my comparables, or the resulting scores, may strike you as completely misguided. This is all pure speculation on my part, so feel free to argue why in the comments, or ask for some clarification on a particular choice. My feelings won’t be hurt.) One exception: if the Democratic candidates have a House record, I used their most recent score from there.

State	110th Sen.	110th Score	111th Sen.	111th Score (and Comparables)	Difference
OK	Inhofe	0.766	Rice	-0.392 (Dorgan + Casey)	-1.158
CO	Allard *	0.636	M. Udall	-0.375 (110th Congress)	-1.011
MN	Coleman	0.178	Franken	-0.746 (Klobuchar + Feingold)	-0.924
NH	Sununu	0.481	Shaheen	-0.442 (Leahy + Feinstein)	-0.923
TX	Cornyn	0.557	Noriega	-0.336 (Bingaman + Salazar)	-0.893
NM	Domenici *	0.281	T. Udall	-0.525 (110th Congress)	-0.806
NC	Dole	0.451	Hagan	-0.330 (Webb + Lincoln)	-0.781
NE	Hagel *	0.376	Kleeb	-0.366 (Tester + Dorgan)	-0.742
ID	Craig *	0.457	LaRocco	-0.242 (103rd Congress)	-0.699
OR	Smith	0.155	Merkley	-0.698 (Wyden + Whitehouse)	-0.698
KY	McConnell	0.507	Lunsford	-0.168 (Pryor + Ben Nelson)	-0.675
AK	Stevens	0.260	Begich	-0.360 (Tester + Bingaman)	-0.620
MS	Wicker	0.465	Musgrove	-0.147 (Landrieu + Ben Nelson)	-0.612
VA	J. Warner *	0.258	M. Warner	-0.349 (Webb + Biden)	-0.607
ME	Collins	0.084	Allen	-0.449 (110th Congress)	-0.533
KS	Roberts	0.376	Slattery	-0.151 (103rd Congress)	-0.527

As you can see, swapping Jim Inhofe for Andrew Rice is the biggest gain (probably in terms of IQ points as well as in terms of voting record) even without factoring in that Rice may be more progressive than my score gives him credit for. However, unlike the House, where there are a fair number of opportunities to replace a right-winger with a progressive, in the Senate we’re pretty much limited to replacing right-wingers with moderates, or moderate Republicans with progressives, so the shifts are smaller.

Finally, you may notice asterisks for the GOP-held open seats. I’ve compiled a separate table that doesn’t focus on “progress” but the “what if,” i.e. how big a swing we’re looking at in terms of the potential replacement (each of whom I’ve projected to be more conservative than the guy they’re replacing, either based on their House record or on comparables). If you prefer to swap these numbers in for the numbers based on the retiring senator, this doesn’t change the order of the overall results too much, although it does highlight the importance of making sure we win our biggest races. (Especially in Colorado… Mark Udall is on the moderate side, and hasn’t endeared himself much lately with his Iraq and FISA votes, but he’s way to the left of Allard, and even more so than Schaffer, who it turns out was one of the most conservative members of the House during his time there.)

State	GOP Sen.	GOP Score (and Comparables)	Dem Sen.	Dem Score	Difference
CO	Schaffer	0.849 (107th Congress)	M. Udall	-0.375	-1.224
NM	Pearce	0.557 (110th Congress)	T. Udall	-0.525	-1.082
VA	Gilmore	0.543 (J. Warner + DeMint)	M. Warner	-0.349	-0.892
ID	Risch	0.547 (Craig + Kyl)	LaRocco	-0.242	-0.789
NE	Johanns	0.399 (Hagel + Grassley)	Kleeb	-0.366	-0.765

It’s often been said that the Republican Party, from coast to coast, has run into some pretty bad luck this cycle. But I think it’s very easy to forget just how much bad luck they’ve run into. To remedy that, the Swing State Project has put together the most comprehensive compendium of Republican hubris, fuckups and misfortunes you will find anywhere, ever. Call it the “Year of Living Catastrophically”, if you will.

I hope you packed a snack, because this is gonna take a while.

2007

January 9: US Attorney Chris Christie declines to challenge Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ).

January 15: Colorado GOP Sen. Wayne Allard announces that he will retire at the end of his term, leaving his seat vulnerable to a takeover by Democrat Mark Udall.

January 15: The Wall Street Journal reports that Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV) is under federal investigation for bribery.

January 29: Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, considered a potential challenger to Sen. John Kerry, announces that he will play in 2008, denying the NRSC a star recruit.

February 23: GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN-06) claims to know of a secret Iranian plan to partition Iraq and create a “a terrorist safe haven zone” called the “Iraq State of Islam” in order to launch attacks throughout the Middle East and on the United States. Bachmann is forced to recant her unsourced delusions days later.

March 6: On the same day that ex-US Attorney David Iglesias testifies before the House Judiciary Committee that he received intimidating phone calls from GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) and Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) prior to the 2006 mid-term elections about an investigation of a Democratic state senator, Wilson admits that she called Iglesias, but claims her intent was not to intimidate Iglesias.

March 6: One of the GOP’s top choices to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22), state Rep. Adam Hasner, declines to run. State Sen. Jeff Atwater also says “no”.

March 15: GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt (OH-02) reportedly slips and falls in vomit in a Capitol Hill bathroom.

March 19: GOP Rep. Tim Walberg (MI-07) sticks his foot in his mouth by saying that most of Iraq is about as safe as Detroit or Chicago.

March 21: Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, who was considered a credible candidate for statewide office, declines to seek the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat of retiring Colorado Sen. Wayne Allard.

March 31: The NRSC’s dream candidate to challenge Dem Sen. Mark Pryor, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, says that he won’t run for Senate.

April 10: Nevada GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons serves up a whopper to the local press when he says that he’s “heard rumors” of Democrats paying the Wall Street Journal to write articles exposing his corruption.

April 18: The FBI raids the home of GOP Rep. John Doolittle (CA-04).

April 20: GOP Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01) steps down from the House Intelligence Committee after the FBI raids his family business.

May 5: Ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer bizarrely tries to un-announce his candidacy for the open Senate seat of retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard.

May 15: Boca Raton Mayor Steve Abrams, one of the NRCC’s top choices to run against Democratic Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22), declines to run, joining a long list of local officeholders passing on the race.

May 29: The Anchorage Daily News reports that the FBI and a federal grand jury are investigating a remodeling project at the Girdwood home of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) that was organized by the oil services company VECO.

July 1: The NRCC’s much-hyped recruit against freshman Democrat Joe Courtney (CT-02), former Groton submarine base commander Sean Sullivan, discloses that he only raised “between $25,000 and $30,000” in his first three months of campaigning. After failing to pick up the pace significantly in the coming months, Sullivan becomes “persona non grata” to DC Republicans and the district quickly falls off the list of Republican targets.

July 5: Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg announces that he won’t challenge Sen. Max Baucus in 2008, denying the NRSC their top choice in the state.

July 9: Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) admits to being a customer of the DC madam and enjoying the company of prostitutes in the past.

July 19: GOP Rep. Chris Shays (CT-04) loses his cool and “screams obscenities” at a Capitol police officer.

July 25: The Wall Street Journal reveals 18-term GOP Rep. Don Young (AK-AL) is under criminal investigation for his dealings with VECO, just like Ted Stevens.

July 26: GOP Rep. Ray LaHood (IL-18) announces his retirement, putting his R+5.5 district on the map for Democrats.

July 30: The FBI and the IRS raid the home of GOP Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK).

There’s more – much, much more – below the fold.

August 15: GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15) announces her retirement, putting her Dem-trending R+1.1 district at the top of the Democratic takeover list.

August 17: GOP Rep. Dennis Hastert (IL-14), the former Speaker of the House, announces his retirement at the end of his term. Hastert’s decision puts his R+4.8 open seat on the DCCC’s target map.

August 17: GOP state Sen. Steve Stivers and former Columbus Mayor Buck Rinehart both decline to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15).

August 23: Embattled GOP Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01) announces his retirement, opening up his competitive district for a Democratic takeover.

August 23: GOP state Rep. Jim Hughes also declines to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15).

August 27: It is revealed that GOP Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho was busted on charges of lewd behavior in a Minneapolis airport bathroom. Craig famously defends his conduct by saying that he tends to take a “wide stance” while using the toilet.

August 27: Two of the GOP’s top choices to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15), former state AG Jim Petro and former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka, both decline to run, leaving the GOP empty-handed in this tossup district for months.

August 31: Virginia GOP Sen. John Warner announces his retirement, putting his Senate seat in play for Democrats.

September 6: Former AZ state Senate President Ken Bennett, the GOP’s top choice to replace retiring Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01), says that he won’t run for Congress.

September 7: Nailed by the Chicago Tribune over various shady land deals, GOP Rep. Jerry Weller (IL-11) goes into hiding.

September 10: In an explosive closed-door meeting with House Minority Whip Roy Blunt and Rep. Eric Cantor, Minority Leader John Boehner sharply criticizes Tom Cole’s performance and strategic decisions as NRCC chair. Word leaks out that Cole threatened to resign if Boehner forced any personnel changes at the NRCC.

September 13: DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer hits the mother lode when former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner announces that he’ll run for the open seat of retiring GOP Sen. John Warner.

September 14: Former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen announces that she will run against GOP Sen. John Sununu, giving the senator his stiffest possible challenge.

September 17: GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (MN-03) decides that he’s just not fit for life in the Minority and announces his retirement, putting his tossup R+0.5 seat into play.

September 21: GOP Rep. Jerry Weller (IL-11) announces his retirement, vaulting his R+1.1 suburban district to the top of the DCCC’s targeted races list.

September 26: GOP Rep. Terry Everett (AL-02) announces his retirement, putting his conservative R+13.2 district on the target map for Democrats.

September 30: Retiring GOP Rep. Ray LaHood (IL-18) predicts the future: “The Democrats will continue to be the majority party in the House and Senate and Hillary Clinton will make history by being the first woman president.”

October 3: The GOP’s top choice to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (IL-11), state Sen. Christine Radogno, declines to run.

October 4: Longtime New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici announces his retirement, giving Democrats another excellent Senate pick-up opportunity.

October 5: GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) jumps into the race to replace Domenici, opening up her Dem-leaning D+2.4 seat.

October 11: GOP Rep. Ralph Regula (OH-16) announces his retirement, putting his Dem-trending R+3.6 near the top of the DCCC’s target list.

October 13: Garbage magnate James Galante is charged with violating Connecticut state campaign finance laws for suspicious donations to various PACs, including one controlled by GOP state Sen. David Cappiello, who is running for congress against freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy (CT-05).

October 14: GOP Rep. Dave Hobson (OH-07) announces his retirement, putting his R+6 seat on the table for Democrats.

October 16: GOP Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-02) announces that he will run against Heather Wilson for the Senate nomination to succeed Pete Domenici, setting up the GOP for a bruising primary and putting his R+5.7 open seat into play.

October 19: After his contracting relationship with Blackwater and past run-ins with the law gained scrutiny in the press, IN-02 GOP candidate Chris Minor ends his campaign against frosh Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly, leaving the GOP empty-handed once again.

October 22: A spokesman for South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds says that he has no plans to challenge Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, denying the NRSC their most coveted recruit in the state.

October 23: A sign of the times? The entire membership of the all-Republican governing body of the swing town of Lyndhurst, New Jersey switch from Republican to Democrat. In addition, nearly 60% of Lyndhurst’s Republican County Committee defect to the Democratic Party.

October 25: The GOP’s great “moderate” hope of retaining the seat of retiring Virginia Sen. John Warner, Rep. Tom Davis, drops out of the race after getting snubbed by the VA GOP. The news leaves Republicans hobbled with unpopular former Gov. Jim Gilmore as their leading candidate.

November 6: The Hill writes that “a recruiting surge anticipated by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in recent weeks has yet to take shape as promised.”

November 7: Democrat Steve Beshear crushes incumbent Kentucky Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher in a landslide.

November 7: Democrats in Virginia and Mississippi capture control of their state Senates, and Virginia Dems gain more ground in the House of Delegates, as well.

November 8: 26 year-old GOP “wunderkind” Aaron Schock, who’s running to succeed retiring Republican Ray LaHood (IL-18), announces a downright insane plan to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan in order to coerce China to fall in line with American policy towards Iran.

November 9: GOP Rep. Jim Saxton (NJ-03) announces his retirement from the House, leaving Democratic state Sen. John Adler well-poised to capture this D+3 open seat.

November 10: Democrat Tom Udall announces that he’s definitely running for the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Pete Domenici. Short of Gov. Bill Richardson, Udall is the strongest possible Democratic candidate and his entry immediately gives the Democrats the upper hand in this race.

November 19: GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson (NJ-07) makes a surprise retirement announcement, moving this competitive district into the tossup column.

November 20: The GOP’s top three choices to run for the open seat left behind by retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson (NJ-07) — Jon Bramnick, Bob Franks, and Tom Kean, Jr. — all pass on the race.

November 20: Wealthy businessman Andrew Saul, who had been posting impressive fundraising numbers in his race against Democratic Rep. John Hall (NY-19), shocks the political world by abruptly dropping out of the race. The GOP is left without a viable candidate to challenge the freshman Hall.

November 20: Upper Darby Police Superintendent Michael Chitwood, a media-savvy police chief with loads of name recognition, declines to challenge freshman Democrat Joe Sestak (PA-07).

November 26: Mississippi GOP Sen. Trent Lott announces that he will resign from Congress by the end of the year, putting his Senate seat in play and triggering a series of downballot shuffles that eventually put a House district in play.

November 26: GOP Rep. Dennis Hastert (IL-14), the immediate past Speaker of the House, resigns from Congress, setting up a special election for early 2008. The vacancy puts this historically Republican R+4.8 district in play.

November 29: Well-liked GOP state Sen. Diane Allen declines to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Jim Saxton (NJ-03) after not being able to secure financial assurances from the cash-strapped NRCC.

November 29: Former Assemblyman Howard Mills says that he won’t challenge freshman Democratic Rep. John Hall (NY-19).

December 7: GOP Rep. Jim McCrery (LA-04) announces his retirement, putting this R+6.5 district into play.

December 8: Ex-GOP Rep. Charles Taylor finally makes up his mind and announces that he won’t challenge freshman Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11) in a rematch. Several other high-profile Republican candidates, kept out of the race by Taylor’s indecision, ultimately decline to enter.

December 11: The NRCC gets successfully head-faked in two special elections in deeply red districts (OH-05 and VA-01) by the DCCC, and spends over $500,000 (20% of the committee’s cash-on-hand) defending the two seats. NRCC Chair Tom Cole is later attacked for wasting scarce resources.

December 11: Iraq Vet and surgeon Wayne Mosley declines to challenge Democratic Rep. John Barrow (GA-12).

December 31: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour taps Rep. Roger Wicker (MS-01) to fill the open seat left behind by retired Sen. Trent Lott, opening up his R+10 House district for a Democratic takeover.

2008

January 1: NY Assemblyman Greg Ball declines to run against Dem Rep. John Hall (NY-19), leaving the GOP with third-tier candidate Kieran Lalor.

January 11: State Rep. Bill Konopnicki, one of the GOP’s top choices to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01), drops out of the race, leaving Republicans without a top tier candidate in this competitive district.

January 15: GOP Rep. Richard Baker (LA-06) announces that he’ll hang up his spurs and take a plum lobbying job instead, opening up his R+6.5 district for a takeover by Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux.

January 21: The NRCC’s preferred candidate to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (PA-08), ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, announces that he’ll run for the State House instead. Within a month, Fitzpatrick bails on that campaign, too.

January 22: Missouri Republican Gov. Matt Blunt announces that he won’t seek a second term, leaving Democratic state AG Jay Nixon as the frontrunner to succeed him.

January 23: GOP Rep. Jim Walsh (NY-25) announces that he will retire from Congress, giving Democrats a prime pick-up opportunity for his D+3.2 open seat.

January 29: GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof (MO-09) announces that he will leave Congress to run for Governor, leaving his R+6.5 district up for grabs.

January 29: GOP Rep. Ron Lewis (KY-02) announces his retirement, putting his conservative but historically Democratic R+12.9 district on the table.

January 30: GOP Rep. Tom Davis (VA-11) announces his retirement from Congress, opening up his Dem-trending R+0.6 district for a takeover.

February 12: When asked if he will challenge Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) for his re-election, Mike Huckabee replies: “There’s a greater chance that I would dye my hair green, cover my body with tattoos and go on a rock tour with Amy Winehouse.”

February 12: Pro-war state Sen. Andy Harris successfully defeats moderate incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01) in the GOP primary. Gilchrest’s defeat gives Democrat Frank Kratovil a fighting chance of picking up the R+9.8 seat in November.

February 12: GOP Rep. John Shaddeg (AZ-03) announces his retirement.

February 21: Desperate GOPers beg John Shadegg to unretire. In an embarrassing about-face which serves as an admission that the Republicans had no ability to recruit a strong replacement in this district, Shadegg changes his mind and decides to stick it out for another term.

February 22: GOP Rep. Rick Renzi is indicted on 35 criminal counts including conspiracy, wire fraud, money laundering and official extortion.

February 23: The GOP’s candidate to run for retiring Rep. Jerry Weller’s (IL-11) open seat, New Lennox Mayor Tim Baldermann, drops out of the race.

February 25: Outgoing GOP Rep. Renzi (AZ-01) bucks the orders of John Boehner and refuses to resign immediately from Congress.

February 27: GOP Sen. Ted Stevens loses his free pass when Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich announces his candidacy against him.

March 4: The NRCC’s preferred candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23), wealthy self-funding attorney Franciso “Quico” Canseco, loses his primary to Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, despite spending over $1 million on the race. Larson has only raised a fraction of that amount, causing many observers to downgrade this race’s competitiveness.

March 4: The GOP nominates Fred Dailey, a former state Agriculture Director, to take on freshman Rep. Zack Space (OH-18). Dailey’s fundraising is incredibly anemic, having only raised $75,000 through the primary, despite being in the race for over nine months.

March 5: Republican real estate developer Anne Estabrook drops out of the Senate race against Frank Lautenberg due to illness.

March 6: The GOP’s top choice to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), Arizona Corporation Commissioner Jeff Hatch-Miller, drops out of the race.

March 7: GOP Rep. Steve King (IA-05) announces that he won’t challenge Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, leaving the NRSC without a top-tier candidate once again.

March 8: South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds once again refuses to run against Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, despite President Bush begging him to change his mind.

March 8: Democrat Bill Foster wins the special election in IL-14 for the seat of retiring Rep. Dennis Hastert, the former Speaker of the House. The pick-up of the R+4.8 open seat inspires SSP Publisher DavidNYC to start the blog’s wildly popular Tom Cole Deathwatch series, later a hot topic of discussion on Capitol Hill.

March 10: Former Lt. Governor and Republican businessman and flesh-eating zombie Steve Kirby also declines to run against Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD), dashing GOP hopes of finding a wealthy challenger to make this a race.

March 13: NRCC Chair Tom Cole reveals that the NRCC overstated its cash on hand by $740,000 due to fraud by an ex-employee.

March 13: NRSC Chair John Ensign admits that the committee’s goal of capturing “two seats” to take back the Senate is a “very long stretch”.

March 13: Retiring GOP Rep. Tom Davis (VA-11), a former chair of the NRCC, famously says: “The House Republican brand is so bad right now that if it were a dog food, they’d take it off the shelf.”

March 19: GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds (NY-26) — who only one cycle before helmed the NRCC — retires, opening up his R+3.5 seat for a takeover.

March 23: Andy Unanue, a former seller of luscious Goya nectars, announces his candidacy for the U.S. Senate against Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) while vacationing in the posh resort community of Vail, Colorado.

March 24: The GOP finally finds a candidate for the open seat of retiring Illinois Rep. Jerry Weller (IL-11) — their twentieth choice, shady concrete mogul Martin Ozinga.

March 24: The GOP’s preferred choice to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Tom Reynolds (NY-26), state Sen. George Maziarz, won’t run. Their second choice, Assemblyman Jim Hayes, also declines to run.

March 25: The GOP’s lone candidate to take on Democrat Dan Maffei in the open seat of NY-25, former State Fair Director Peter Cappuccilli, pulls the plug on his candidacy, leaving the GOP without a candidate here for some time.

March 27: State Rep. Donna Stone declines to run for the Delaware Governor’s office, leaving Delaware GOP officials to lament that they “have no strong candidates” to offer for the open seat race in 2008.

March 31: The GOP’s top choice to run for the open seat left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer in Alabama, DINO state Sen. Tom Butler, declines to run.

April 6: The GOP’s top choice to take on Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg, biotech millionaire John Crowley, pulls out of the race for the second time in two weeks, leaving the GOP to temporarily fall back on disgraced Goya foods frat boy Andy Unanue.

April 7: Colorado Senate candidate Bob Schaffer’s ties to Jack Abramoff begin to receive wider exposure in local media.

April 21: The GOP’s top choice to run for the open seat of retiring Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01), former state Sen. President Ken Bennett, again declines to run, leaving the GOP with the far-right loon Sydney Hay as their last resort.

April 22: In the MS-01 special primary, Democrat Travis Childers very nearly wins the R+10 open seat left behind by Roger Wicker outright. GOP panic ensues as the race goes to a runoff.

May 1: GOP Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) is arrested on DWI charges in Virginia.

May 3: Democrat Don Cazayoux wins the LA-06 special election against Republican Woody Jenkins in an R+6.5 district. This is the Democrats’ second house pick-up of the year.

May 6: Rumors rage that GOP Rep. Vito Fossella is involved in an extramarital affair and has an out-of-wedlock child after details of his DWI arrest are made public.

May 7: Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower, the GOP candidate against freshman Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11) tells the NRCC that he has no interest in accepting their campaign money, saying that the national party has “abandoned their principles”.

May 8: Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) admits to fathering a child in an extramarital affair.

May 9: Several local NY papers call on Rep. Vito Fossella to resign.

May 9: Vice President Dick Cheney makes an embarrassing gaffe on a Mississippi radio show about visiting “South Memphis” in order to campaign for GOP candidate Greg Davis in an upcoming special election. The locals are not amused.

May 13: In a back-breaking blow to Republican morale, Democrat Travis Childers beats Republican Greg Davis by eight points for the R+10 open seat left behind by appointed Sen. Roger Wicker in Mississippi. SSP Publisher DavidNYC writes that the result is the “final piece of straw set atop the shambling camel of the GOP, the one which clove its dessicated humps in two.”

May 14: GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer kicks off his campaign in Colorado with an embarrassing TV spot that features an image of Alaska’s Mt. McKinley in the place of Colorado’s Pikes Peak.

May 19: GOP Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) announces his retirement, creating another vulnerable open seat for Republicans to defend.

May 20: Businessman Mike Erickson wins the GOP nomination in OR-05 for the open swing seat left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley. However, Erickson spends the last week of his primary campaign deflecting accusations that he used to lead a party-heavy lifestyle of cocaine use and that he paid for a girlfriend’s abortion procedure several years earlier. The allegations heavily blunt the GOP’s hopes of making this race into a rare pick-up opportunity.

May 20: The filing deadline passes in Arkansas, and Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor, considered one of the GOP’s top targets early in the cycle, goes unchallenged by any major party opposition.

May 21: OR-05 primary loser Kevin Mannix refuses to endorse GOP candidate Mike Erickson.

May 21: In the wake of the GOP’s loss of MS-01, word leaks out that Minority Leader John Boehner is forcing some major changes upon Tom Cole and the NRCC.

May 22: In a major disappointment for the NRCC, the GOP’s top choice to replace Vito Fossella (NY-13) in the House, Richmond County DA Dan Donovan, declines to run.

May 22: GOP delegates vote to endorse wingnut Kieran Lalor over Westchester Legislator George Oros. Days later, Oros drops out of the race, setting up freshman Democratic Rep. John Hall (NY-19) for an easy re-election bid.

May 27: GOP Rep. Bill “Brain Fade” Sali (ID-01) turns back a poorly-funded primary challenge by only capturing 60% of the vote.

May 29: State Sen. Andrew Lanza, the GOP’s second choice to succeed Vito Fossella (NY-13), officially declines to run.

May 29: Failing to convince a top-tier (or second-tier) candidate to run for Fossella’s seat, the Staten Island GOP nominates some dude named Frank Powers, a retired Wall Street executive and MTA member.

May 29: Nevada Republicans are sent into a tailspin as details of GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons’ divorce proceedings are made public. GOP consultant Chuck Muth laments: “This absolutely could depress Republicans who are already depressed. This could hurt McCain’s ability to hold on to Nevada. It could also affect the chances of (Rep.) Jon Porter to get re-elected.”

May 31: In a sign of grassroots disgust, Jim Gilmore very nearly loses the GOP nomination to succeed retiring Sen. John Warner to state Del. Bob Marshall.

June 3: In a major embarrassment for NRSC Chair John Ensign and Massachusetts Republicans, dark horse candidate Jim Ogonowski fails to file enough signatures to make the ballot against John Kerry.

June 3: Carpet-bagging blockhead and conservative firebrand Tom McClintock beats the more moderate (and perhaps more electable) Doug Ose for the GOP nod to succeed John Doolittle.

June 3: In Iowa, Montana and New Mexico, party-favored candidates for Senate lose their primary bids to no-money candidates. In Montana, the upset is particularly glaring; the winning candidate, Bob Kelleher, is a former Democrat and Green Party member who has lost numerous bids for statewide office in the past. In New Mexico, hand-picked “moderate” successor to Pete Domenici, Rep. Heather Wilson, loses to the Club For Growth-backed conservative Rep. Steve Pearce.

June 3: Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower, the GOP’s candidate against Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11) calls for the impeachment of President Bush over his “failure to protect America’s sovereignty”.

June 4: Francis M. Powers, the son of NY-13 GOP candidate Francis H. Powers, seeks to run on the Libertarian Party line against his father in the hopes of denying him the seat. While Powers’ bid is ultimately unsuccessful, the event badly embarrasses Staten Island Republicans.

June 5: Staten Island Conservatives buck the state party and press to give their endorsement to Democrat Mike McMahon.

June 7: NRSC John Ensign moves the goalposts out of the stadium by suggesting that the GOP’s “minimum goal” is to retain control of 41 Senate seats.

June 9: OH-16 GOP candidate Kirk Schuring makes an embarrassing gaffe about gun violence in his hometown of Canton.

June 12: An audit reveals that former NRCC treasurer Christopher Ward embezzled $725,000 from the committee over a period of six years, up from previous NRCC estimates of $500-$600K. In addition, it is revealed that Ward stole $27,000 from the NRSC via joint fundraising activities and $47,000 from other GOP leadership PACs, for a total of almost $800,000.

June 12: When asked to list the competitive Senate races of 2008, NRSC Chair John Ensign leaves off New Mexico and Virginia. When asked if the NRSC is writing off Steve Pearce and Jim Gilmore, Ensign replies: “You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win.”

June 16: In a move that leaves both supporters and detractors speechless, “Big John” Cornyn releases this campaign video at the Texas GOP convention.

June 18: GOP wunderkind Jon Elrod drops out of the race against Rep. Andre Carson (IN-07), saying that he wouldn’t stand much of a chance in November.

June 20: The Alaska AFL-CIO, which has usually backed Sen. Ted Stevens, votes to give its endorsement to his Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.

June 20: Republican nominee Joel Dykstra is forced to address claims that he’s the GOP’s “sacrificial lamb” against Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson in South Dakota.

June 22: NY-13 GOP candidate Francis Powers dies at age 67.

June 23: OR-05 GOP candidate Mike Erickson endures more bad press when the woman whom he allegedly gave money to pay for her abortion steps forward and gives her account to the press.

June 23: Seeing the writing on the NY GOP’s wall, state Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno announces his retirement.

June 25: Former Assemblyman Matthew Mirones pulls his name from consideration after briefly mulling the open seat race to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13). NY1 broadcaster Lisa Giovinazzo also declines to run, leaving former Rep. Guy Molinari, the dean of Staten Island Republicans, exasperated.

June 25: GOP Rep. Chris Cannon (UT-03), recently ousted in a primary, speaks candidly on the shape of the Republican Party in Utah and elsewhere: “It doesn’t take a genius to see that Republicans (in office) have lost the credibility of people in America and in the 3rd District.”

June 26: NRCC Communications Director Karen Hanretty admits that “there are no safe Republican seats in this election.”

June 30: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) admits that it is “impossible” for the GOP to reclaim control of the Senate in the 2008 elections.

June 30: GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart is busted for touting labor endorsements from unions that not only did not endorse him, but are actually supporting his Democratic challenger, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez.

July 1: Former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R-MD), while on the campaign trail for MD-01 candidate Andy Harris, admits that “the Republican brand quite frankly sucks”.

July 4: Former GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe pulls his support from AZ-08 candidate Tim Bee days after Bee votes to place a constitutional amendment on marriage on the November ballot.

July 6: NRSC Chair John Ensign (R-NV), setting a 3-4 seat loss for the GOP in the Senate as the committee’s goal, offers his take on the 2008 elections: “If you have an R in front of your name, you better run scared.”

July 7: Ex-Rep. Guy Molinari, the unofficial leader of the Staten Island GOP, admits that the party’s chances of holding the open seat of retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) are grim: “Based on the candidates that have surfaced so far, yes, we’re going to lose the seat.”

July 8: In the open seat race in Alabama’s heavily conservative 2nd CD, retiring GOP Rep. Terry Everett injects himself in the Republican primary runoff, begging the contestants to stop their negative attacks lest they turn off voters and hand the race to Democrat Bobby Bright.

July 8: Democrat Republican John Kennedy kicks off his U.S. Senate campaign in Louisiana in a mostly empty ballroom.

July 14: Republican Carl Mumpower suspends his campaign against Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-08) until local party leaders agree to sign a pledge to commit to core Republican principles.

July 15: Staten Island Republicans, still looking for a candidate to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13) settle on their last choice: former Assemblyman Robert Straniere. Guy Molinari, the unofficial dean of the Staten GOP, fumes: “They couldn’t have made a worse mistake. The party was already in desperate shape. They’ve all but buried it.”

July 16: During a campaign trip to Alaska, Republican candidate Luke Puckett (IN-02) is swarmed by mosquitoes before he can film a video on energy independence.

July 24: Republican Keith Fimian, running for the open seat of retiring Rep. Tom Davis in Virginia’s socially liberal 11th CD, is outed for his ties to socially conservative business groups and his anti-choice views.

July 24: State Rep. Todd Brinkman, who recently lost a primary to GOP wingnut Congresswoman Jean Schmidt (OH-02), spills all: “Jean Schmidt is a lying b—-. She would sell her mother to promote herself. She is a despicable person. She will go any length possible to win, to get what she wants.”

July 26: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan is hit with allegations of illegal campaign financing.

July 29: GOP Sen. Ted Stevens, an iconic figure in his home state of Alaska, is indicted on criminal charges related to gifts and special favors received from Alaskan oil field services firm VECO. The indictment greatly boosts the chances of Democrat Mark Begich, who was already neck and neck with Stevens in the polls.

July 30: GOP Rep. Tim Walberg (MI-07) bumbles his way through a defense of his votes against funding for early childhood education programs, saying that such programs might allow “a Wiccan from a coven in Ann Arbor” to claim discrimination.

July 31: GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg (MI-09) is busted by the Swing State Project for scrubbing a racist headline on his blog.

August 1: A longtime friend of GOP dairy magnate Jim Oberweis (IL-11) compares the perennial candidate to fecal matter.

August 4: Republican Senate candidate Bob Schaffer is embarrassed once again, as it is revealed that his 20 year-old son has been posting extremely offensive photos on his Facebook account, including one that reads “Slavery gets shit done”.

August 13: GOP candidate Ed Tinsley, running for the open seat of Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-02), sparks a firestorm when some of his outrageous comments against his Democratic opponent, Harry Teague, at a candidates’ forum are reported on local blogs. At the forum, Tinsley spat: “How can I call my two nephews over there right now [serving in Iraq]… and tell them I’m running against a guy that will cut your throat — that will cut the bottom out of your funding.”

August 13: GOP Rep. Dave Reichert (WA-08) comes under fire for accepting campaign cash from the parent company of Airbus, which is Boeing’s major competition. With 19,000 Boeing employees in his district, Reichert quickly dumps the cash, but not without embarrassment.

August 13: GOP Rep. Bill Sali (ID-01) comes under criticism from the local press for opening his campaign office in the wrong district, and for not adequately separating the boundaries of his congressional and campaign offices.

August 17: Scandal-plagued candidate Mike Erickson, running for the open seat of retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (OR-05), is busted for attempting to portray a luxury vacation that he took to Cuba in 2004 as a “humanitarian trip”. A copy of the actual itinerary from his trip reveals that Erickson’s time was spent touring cigar factories, attending exclusive nightclubs and luxury restaurants, shooting doves, and watching the cock fights. In his defense, Erickson sputters: “If that’s not a humanitarian trip, I don’t know what is!”

August 18: GOP Rep. Joe Wilson (SC-02) screws the pooch and posts a press release from his Democratic opponent that brands the incumbent as an unwavering proponent of President Bush’s failed policies — right on the front page of his website.

August 18: In a major embarrassment for Republican candidate Jay Love, the Republican Mayor of Dothan and state co-chair of John McCain’s campaign in Alabama, Pat Thomas, endorses Democrat Bobby Bright for Congress.

August 20: GOP Sen. Ted Stevens is denied a home state trial, complicating his re-election efforts.

August 21: The campaign of GOP candidate Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09) is busted by the Swing State Project for releasing a deranged statement claiming that Luetkemeyer’s Democratic opponent, state Rep. Judy Baker, hates NASCAR. For the record: Judy Baker loves NASCAR.

August 22: GOP candidate Tim Bee, a highly-touted recruit running against freshman Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08), is roasted by local editorials for forcing taxpayers to cover the security costs related to a private fundraiser he held with President Bush.

August 22: NRSC Chair John Ensign releases a statement stained with his own personal disgust that lambastes his Senate colleagues for not contributing to the party’s 2008 campaign efforts. Ensign announces that he has no choice but to decrease his committee’s expenditure budget for targeted races after previously vowing to match the DSCC “dollar for dollar”. The NRSC also pulls the plug on a planned $6 million reservation in the North Carolina Senate race, despite polls indicating that GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole is in an increasingly competitive race.

August 26: GOP Rep. Ric Keller (FL-08) barely defeats his primary challenger, a fringe right-wing radio host, by a 53-47 margin, helping prompt prognosticators to consider the incumbent in electoral danger in this marginal district.

August 26: In a big blow to the GOP’s hopes of retaining their at-large House seat in Alaska, corrupt GOP Rep. Don Young defeats Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell by the slimmest of margins in the Republican primary. Polls show Young having a much rougher time against Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz than Parnell would have had.

Is there anything that we missed?

Well, I just posted a joke comment to the Senate Guru’s June Cattle Call (list the 15 most likely Senate seats to flip).  Instead of doing the usual, I decided to list the 15 least likely to flip.

While that was conceived as a joke, I thought…maybe that list is worth something.  So,…

And now for something completely reasonably different: List, in order of “safeness”, the fifteen LEAST likely Senate seats to flip.

My list:

1. Baucus (MT)

2. Reed (RI)

3. Pryor (AR)

4. Biden (DE)

5. Rockefeller (WV)

6. Levin (MI)

7. Durbin (IL)

8. Harkin (IA)

9. Johnson (SD)

10. Kerry (MA)

11. Lautenberg (NJ)

12. Sessions (AL)

13. Cochran (MS)

14. Enzi (WY)

15. Barrasso (WY)

For the record, #16 is Lindsay Graham (SC) and #17 is Lamar Alexander (TN), both of whom follow close behind 15.