Tag: Senate

It’s been a few months since we’ve done one of these, so let’s see what we come up with this time around. You know the drill: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of likelihood of flipping.

Have at it!

cross-posted from Election Inspection

Latest Senate Polls for 2008:

State	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL	Sessions	Rasmussen 5/27	Figures	29	Sessions	62
AK	Stevens	Research 2000 5/12-5/14	Begich	48	Stevens	43
CO	Allard	Rasmussen 5/19	Mark Udall	47	Schaffer	41
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Vernon Jones	29	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Dale Cardwell	27	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Rand Knight	25	Saxby Chambliss (i)	58
GA	Chambliss	Strategic Vision (R) 5/9-5/11	Josh Lanier	24	Saxby Chambliss (i)	57
GA	Chambliss	Rasmussen 3/20	Jim Martin	33	Chambliss	51
ID	Craig	Robinson Research 11/26-12/12	LaRocco	27	Risch	46
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	57	George Eichorn	28
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	58	Steve Rathje	23
IA	Tom Harkin	Research 2000 4/21-4/23	Tom Harkin	59	Christopher Reed	20
KS	Pat Roberts	Research 2000 6/2-6/4	Slattery	38	Roberts	50
KY	McConnell	Rasmussen 5/22	Bruce Lunsford	49	McConnell	44
LA	Landrieu	Rasmussen 5/28	Landrieu	47	Kennedy	44
ME	Collins	Rasmussen 5/14	Allen	42	Collins	52
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jim Ogonowski	29
MA	Kerry	Rasmussen 5/29	Kerry	63	Jeff Beatty	25
MI	Levin	Rasmussen 5/7	Levin	54	Hoogendyk	37
MN	Coleman	Rasmussen 5/22	Franken	45	Coleman	47
MS-A	Cochran	Rasmussen 5/27	Fleming	35	Cochran	58
MS-B	Wicker	Rasmussen 5/27	Musgrove	47	Wicker	46
NE	Hagel	Research 2000 5/19-5/21	Kleeb	31	Johanns	58
NH	Sununu	Rasmussen 5/20	Shaheen	50	Sununu	43
NM	Domenici	SUSA 5/30-6/1	Tom Udall	60	Steve Pearce	35
NC	Dole	PPP 5/28-5/29	Kay Hagan	39	Dole	47
OK	Inhofe	Soonerpoll.com 12/16-12/19	Andrew Rice	19	Inhofe	60
OR	Smith	Rasmussen 5/7	Jeff Merkley	42	Smith	45
SD	Johnson	Rasmussen 3/4	Johnson	63	Joel Dykstra	28
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Bob Tuke	30	Alexander	59
TN	Alexander	Rasmussen 4/3	Mike Padgett	31	Alexander	58
TX	Cornyn	Baselice & Associates (R) 5/20-5/25	Noriega	33	Cornyn	49
TX	Cornyn	Research 2000 5/5-5/7	Noriega	44	Cornyn	48
VA	John Warner	Rasmussen 5/8	Mark Warner	55	Gilmore	37

Democrats currently lead in all Democratic-held seats and in 7 GOP-held seats (AK, CO, KY, MS, NH, NM, VA) – although there is considerable skepticism about Rasmussen’s Kentucky poll. That would mean ousting 4 GOP incumbents (Stevens, McConnell, Wicker, Sununu), although Wicker is merely an appointee to an open seat. The GOP has only one good pickup opportunity – Louisiana, where Landrieu is up by only 3. We are within 5 points of defeating incumbents in Minnesota, Oregon, and Texas (I don’t count GOP internal polls). This means we are less than a 5 point swing away from a 60 seat filibuster-proof majority, which relegates the GOP to the back seat where legislation is concerned.

Beyond that, we trail by only 8 points in North Carolina, 10 points in Maine, and 12 points in Kansas. Remember what the Virginia race looked like at this point in time last year.

57 – in hand. 60 – within our grasp. 63 – within reason.

I just had to do a diary on this story.  It’s simply too incredible to believe.  We all knew that republicans had no serious challenger for Montana’s Democratic Senator Max Baucus, but they did have a state Representative Michael Lange was was supposed to win their primary with little trouble.  Well, that didn’t happen.  In fact the guy who won the republican primary this week by a 13% margin could more accurately be called a socialist or Green party member than a republican.  

Meet 85 year old Bob Kelleher.  Until this week when he won the primary Kelleher didn’t even have his own domain website.  He had what amounted to an AOL personal webpage and essentially didn’t even campaign for the nomination.  Basically everything on his new website is “under construction” with dead-end links.

Here is Kelleher’s prior electoral history:

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ca…

1968 – Ran for MT-02 congressional district as a Democrat.  Lost the general by a 68-32% margin

1980, 1984, 1988, 1992 and 1996: – Ran for Montana Governor as a Democrat.  Lost every primary with less than 26% of the vote.

2002 – Ran for U.S. Senate as a Green and received 2% of the vote.

2004 – Ran for MT Governor as a Green and received 1.9% of the vote.

2006 – Ran for MT Senate as a Republican and received 4% of the vote.

That’s right- he’s run for office as a Democrat, Republican AND Green.

http://www.bobkelleher2008.com/

Some of his stances I pulled off of his old website before it was taken down:

http://www.votesmart.org/speec…

– In one of the republican debates Kelleher blasted his rivals for not pushing for serious gun control legislation.  Uhh… ya.  I’m sure pro-gun control candidates are wildly popular in Montana.

– Supports legalization of marijuana and other drugs.

– Anti Social Security Privatization

– Pro healthcare reform, apparently supports universal healthcare.

– In favor or eliminating the Bush Tax Cuts.

– Staunchly protectionist and anti free-trade.

– Wants the U.S. to change it’s government to European style Parlimentary form.  Yes… I’m dead serious.

– Wants immediate withdrawal from Iraq.

Needless to say this should be one of the most entertaining races of the cycle.  We have a republican candidate who is running on a more liberal platform than his democratic opponent Max Baucus, in a republican leaning state.

And one last thing, Kelleher has some kickass eyebrows.  I’d probably vote for him over Max Baucus, that’s for sure.

Latest LA Senate poll from Rasumssen shows Landrieu with a narrow 47-44 lead over Kennedy.  Since this may be the first poll in this race from a major firm, it suggests that we’ll have a real fight on our hands for this one.  Guess those double digit lead polls actually were too good to be true.

So with less than half a year to go, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

First off, whenever I refer to fundraising numbers in the races, I’m using the latest numbers we know of, from the end of March 2008.  “Q1” refers to the period of January to March 2008, the most recent quarter that we have the fundraising numbers for.  Major hat tip to Senate Guru for putting all the numbers in an easy to read table format.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement.  Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating.  That’s freaking unheard of.  He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year.  Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore.  Rasmussen Reports still shows Warner CRUSHING Gilmore, 55%-37%.  And oh yeah, Warner also raised over $2.5 million in Q1, while Gilmore only raised a little over $400,000.  To top it off, Gilmore’s been burning through the little cash he got, and now barely has $200,000 left, which is more than $4 million less than what Warner’s sitting on.  This seat’s about as safe as you’re gonna get.

2. New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly after Pete Domenici (R) announced his retirement.  Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years, also running for President in 1976.  Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s.  The GOP side features a primary fight between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce that’s been getting nastier lately.  So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation is running for this Senate seat!  Lots of good recent polling news for Udall pushes this race into the number 2 spot, as Rasmussen shows Udall crushing both opponents by at least 15 points each, and SurveyUSA shows him getting at least 60% in the polls and destroying both challengers by at least 24 points each!  Now, once the GOP settles on a nominee, expect a “unity bounce” to occur, which should trim Udall’s massive leads a bit.  But if the polls still show the GOP candidate under 40% even then, it won’t be much of a race.  Combine that with Udall having three times the cash on hand as Pearce and Wilson combined, and Udall would be number 1 on the list if it weren’t for Mark Warner.

3. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum.  Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race.  But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor?  Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in every single poll taken in 2008.  The latest Rasmussen poll has her leading 50%-43%.  A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.  The only thing keeping this race from being tied at number 2 is that while Shaheen outraised Sununu in the 1st quarter, Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage of $4.3 million, compared to Shaheen’s $1.8 million.  That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I’m not sure that money advantage is really going to help Sununu all that much.

4. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate.  Democrats have cleared the path for Rep. Mark Udall here.  He’s Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee.  Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006.  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  At the end of Q1, Udall was sitting on a $4.2 million warchest, with Schaffer trailing by half that amount.  Schaffer campaign manager Dick Wadhams (no, really, that’s his name) got Allard first elected to the Senate, and became a rising start in the GOP for managing John Thune’s 2004 win over Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.  But, he was also in charge of managing George Allen’s 2006 re-election bid in Virginia, sending him from a 20-point lead seven months out to defeat.  (Allen revealing his inner racist greatly helped, too.)  And now it seems that Wadhams has been flipping out at local reporters.  Then, the latest Schaffer ad was supposed to show Pike’s Peak, a mountain in Colorado.  However, the footage in the commercial was actually of Mt. McKinley in Alaska.  D’oh!  Combine that with Schaffer now being inexorably tied to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands, and can you say “imploding campaign”?  Recent Rasmussen polling shows Udall opening up a 47%-41% lead over Schaffer now, with Schaffer’s numbers dropping by a point for each of the last four months.  Udall’s favorability ratings are also on the rise, while Schaffer’s are going in the opposite direction.

5. North Carolina: Kay Hagan easily won her primary two weeks ago, and suddenly the polls have been showing a massive shift in favor of Hagan.  Last month she was trailing Elizabeth Dole (R) by double digits.  Well, no more.  After winning the primary, check out the bounce!  SurveyUSA has Dole only up 50%-46% (while underestimating black turnout), and Rasmussen has Hagan leading Dole 48%-47%!  What’s more, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm specializing in North Carolina polling, shows (.pdf) Dole up 48%-43%, and Civitas Institute (a Republican polling firm) shows Dole only up 45%-43%.  These recent polls all show the race to be neck-and-neck now.  As a result, Dole has fired her campaign manager and brought gubernatorial candidate Bill Graham’s campaign manager, who managed Graham to a 3rd place finish, netting just 9.28% of the vote.  Now there’s a real winner.  In another sign of how much trouble Dole is in, her campaign is asking the DSCC and NRSC not to spend money on her race.  Um, isn’t that’s the whole POINT of those campaign committees?  She should know, she headed up the NRSC in 2006 when they lost control of the Senate!  She had no problem spending NRSC money in all those key Senate races two years ago.  She’s only doing this because the DSCC has more than twice the cash on hand as the NRSC does right now.  Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised at the campaign Hagan is running; after all, she is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

6. Alaska: 85-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but he is in some legal trouble, with the FBI having raided his home last June in connection with possible bribes from Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president.  Former Veco CEO Bill Allen admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens.  And Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race.  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  Earlier this month, two polls shocked the establishment, when they both showed Begich leading Stevens.  Rasmussen shows Begich leading 47%-45%, and Research 2000 shows Begich leading 48%-43%.  Stevens still has a substantially bigger warchest, but after 35 years in the Senate, Stevens is pretty much a known quantity to Alaskans.  Look for really negative ads attacking Begich coming soon.

7. Oregon: Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) won a close primary over lawyer/activist Steve Novick to take on Gordon Smith (R).  The two quickly joined forces in a unity event to take on Smith.  Smith seemed worried about Merkley, as he spent around $500,000 in attack ads against Merkley before he even won the primary!  Now, Smith still sits on a considerable warchest (over $5 million at the end of Q1), but the latest Rasmussen polling, taken before Merkley won his primary, shows Merkley having gained serious ground since early this year, now only trailing Smith 45%-42%.  Interestingly enough, an internal DSCC poll also showed the exact same numbers.  It will be interesting to see how much of a “unity bounce” Merkley will get in future polling.  In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

8. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  With Mike Ciresi having dropped out, the Democratic nominee looks to be comedian Al Franken.  The polls had been steadily favoring Franken, until late April when a story came out that Franken owed $70,000 in back taxes to 17 different states.  Now, it turns out that as a traveling comedian, having visited lots of states, he was supposed to pay taxes to those individual states, but paid them instead all to the states he had homes in.  As for the fallout, there are very conflicting stories.  SurveyUSA had a poll showing 51% of Minnesotans saying Franken should actually withdraw from the race because of this error.  But the Star Tribune showed the tax story didn’t make much of a difference to 64% of Minnesotans (compared to only 31% in the SurveyUSA poll).  At least one of those polls is WAY off.  The election polls now show Franken trailing by 7 points to Coleman.  Over five months out from the election, it’s still way too early to count Franken out simply over this flap, especially given how strongly he was polling against Coleman earlier this year.  Plus, Franken did manage to continue his streak of outraising Coleman in Q1. Update: And just like I said, Rasmussen comes out with a new poll today showing Coleman’s lead has shrunk back to just 2 points, 47%-45%.  This race is most definitely winnable.

9. Texas: Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R).  State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  An early baseline poll from last September showed Cornyn beating Noriega 51%-35%.  How things have changed.  Early this month, polls from Rasmussen and Research 2000 came out showing Cornyn’s lead had shrunk to just four points!  He’s now under the 50% mark in both of them.  However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in Q1, resulting in Cornyn sitting on over $8 million more than Noriega had by the end of March.  And in a huge state like Texas, money will most definitely matter.  This past week, Cornyn gave Noriega some prime ammo to use against him when he was one of only 22 Senators to vote against Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-VA) G.I. Bill.  Noriega quickly went up with an op-ed slamming Cornyn for abandoning our troops.  Well played, sir.

10. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But how endangered that really is remains to be seen.  She was still able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP.  Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Neely Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat.  (Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.)  As for how endangered Landrieu really is, well, there’s lots of conflicting data.  On the down side, hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making the staet more red than it used to be.  Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected.  On the plus side, however, Mary’s brother Mitch won the Lt. Governorship by an even bigger margin.  And this month’s win by Don Cazayoux (D) in LA-06, a Republican district, has to bode well for Landrieu.  Kennedy did outraise Landrieu in Q1, but still trailed her by almost $3 million at the end of March.  And Kennedy will have to burn some of that money against primary challenger Paul Hollis.  There’s been virtually no polling on this race for some reason, so the most recent one is from April, which shows Landrieu leading Kennedy 50%-38%.  A boost came to the Landrieu campaign when the Huffington Post obtained an NRSC memo from 2004 that attacked Kennedy when he ran for the Senate that year… as a Democrat.  After ripping him for being so wrong for Louisiana, they’re suddenly going to say he’s the right person for the job?  LOL.  Still, some more polling on this race would be nice to see (cough Markos cough).

11. Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R).  But even though Maine is a blue state, he has an uphill climb.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent Rasmussen poll has some good news for Allen, with him only trailing Collins 52%-42%.  It’s good news, considering every earlier poll had Allen under 40%.  Allen has been hitting the right notes recently, hitting Collins hard over her shameful tenure as chair of the Senate Homeland Security Committee from 2003-2007, and doing NOTHING about contractor abuses and war profiteering in Iraq, despite multiple letters from people informing her of serious abuses going on in Iraq.  And BTW, the Maine newspapers suck at telling the truth about Collins.  I mean, really suck.

12. Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats.  And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident.  But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo and State Auditor Crit Luallen both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid.  Rasmussen had shown both Stumbo and Luallen holding McConnell under the 50% mark, and for the Senate Minority Leader who can bring home the pork, that showed significant dissatisfaction with McConnell in Kentucky.  Netroots un-favorite and wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford easily won the Democratic primary last week.  He’s ticked off a lot of Democrats in the past by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after he lost the primary to Chandler.  The blogs are, ah, less than pleased.  At least it looks like Kentucky Democrats have quickly unified behind Lunsford and are all pledging to do their part to defeat McConnell.  McConnell has a HUGE warchest of almost $8 million, but Lunsford can afford to self-fund.  And this quote from Lunsford after winning the primary is nice to read.  “[McConnell is] going to spend millions of dollars trying to destroy my reputation.  But I don’t care how many names he’s going to call me, because in January he’s going to call me ‘Senator.'”  Well played, sir.  Update: Rasmussen has just released a shocking poll showing Lunsford is leading McConnell 49%-44%!  This, plus Lunsford’s ability to self-fund, moves Kentucky into a Tier I race.

13. Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won’t have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years.  Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he’s won elected office previously.  But that seat then went blue when Travis Childers (D) won it two weeks ago.  So things are changing even in Mississippi.  That has to be a shot in a arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D).  However, Wicker has shown himself to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in over $2.5 million in Q1 alone, amassing a warchest at the end of Q1 of over $2 million more than the one Musgrove had.  Granted, Musgrove didn’t have the full three months to fundraise, but until we see the Q2 numbers sometime in July, those numbers don’t look so good.  But what does look good are the latest polls.  An internal DSCC poll showed a shocking result: Musgrove was up by 8 over Wicker, 48%-40%!  Marc Ambinder explains why the poll can’t be that far off.  Then Research 2000 released a poll showing Wicker down by four, 46%-42%.  But here’s the catch; Markos had them cite the partisan identification.  But because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November, which is consistent with how the DSCC’s internal poll asked the question.  That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi.  As a result, Wicker has already gone up with a TV ad introducing himself to voters.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R), known for covering up issues related to intelligence and domestic spying for Bush, looked to be coasting to an easy re-election until former Congressman Jim Slattery entered the race in mid-March.  Given that late start, he still managed to raise over $250,000 in just the first two weeks.  Slattery’s got a nice 2-minute bio spot on YouTube.  Rasmussen gave even more encouraging news this month, showing Roberts with only a 52%-40% lead, when we all thought Slattery would be down by more than that.  There are signs that Roberts is nervous, as his people lashed out, attacking Slattery for criticizing the Iraq War, considering he voted for going to war with Iraq.  Except… the war he voted for was the FIRST Gulf War in 1991.  So… voting for that war makes you unable to criticize this war?  Um, OK, that’s some great Republican logic for you.  At the very least, Slattery makes this race somewhat competitive.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that doesn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor of the state.  Kleeb easily won his primary against Republican-turned-Democrat Tony Raimondo, but the polls show Kleeb still has quite a ways to go.  Whereas Rasmussen has Kleeb down 55%-40% (which is actually a good starting point for Kleeb), DailyKos’s Research 2000 poll has Kleeb down by a wide 58%-31% margin.  Kleeb will also need to improve his fundraising significantly, as he trailed by over $1 million in cash on hand to Johanns to end Q1.

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).  But it’s unclear if she’s running a real campaign, with her last event having been on March 27.  But, Jeff Sessions does play a role in the Don Siegelman case.  And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes piece about Siegelman before it aired.  So if there’s a chance Sessions will get ensnared in this scandal, his seat may not be so safe.  But for now, it’s Tier III, and in danger of falling into the “safe” category.

Georgia: A crowded field of relatively unknown Democratic challengers to Saxby Chambliss (R) didn’t seem to go anywhere, until former state representative Jim Martin entered the race on March 19th.  Martin was the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, so he’s run a statewide race before.  And in just 12 days, Martin raised $346,675, which dropped a lot of jaws.  Martin would first have to get by DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, who is black and is depending on African-American turnout to win the crowded primary field.  Except… Jones voted for Bush… twice, still doesn’t know what to think about Iraq, and likes calling us Democrats “losers”.  Way to, um, not endear yourself to us.  It would be great if Chambliss loses; remember, he ousted triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face.  If Martin bests Jones in the primary, I’ll move this up to Tier II.

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom… ah… incident, it’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he was absolutely blitzkrieged in Q1, with Risch raising over 4 ½ times as much money as LaRocco raised, and now LaRocco trails by almost $700,000 in cash on hand.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 84 years old right now.  His poll numbers also don’t look that good, but no New Jersey politician’s numbers ever look really good.  As a result, Rep. Rob Andrews has decided to try a primary challenge, even though everyone else is backing Lautenberg.  But Andrews has this problem of saying that invading Iraq wasn’t a mistake, and was one of the biggest Democratic cheerleaders of going to war in the first place.  And when Lautenberg blasts chickenhawks as forcefully as he did, why switch to Andrews?  On the GOP side, it’s been a wild roller coaster ride as multiple candidates have been declaring, and then dropping out of the race.  Blue Jersey has a wild recap of it all.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling.  State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.  Rice and Inhofe could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues.  Rice pulled in decent fundraising numbers in Q1, but still trails Inhofe by a wide margin.  For some reason, nobody has done a poll of this race yet.

South Carolina: This race is only in Tier III because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan.  The natives are restless.  A party switch is near impossible, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.  Attorney and Navy veteran Michael Cone is running on the Democratic side.  But put it this way, his website doesn’t even have a picture of him, and his endorsements page is, ah, copied from an instructions page on how to build a website.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006.  His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him.  And the polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, to boot.

Tennessee: Former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke entered the race in late February.  It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus; his GOP opponent Michael Lange had less than $2,000 on hand at the end of Q1.  I’m not kidding.)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand after Memorial Day.  Things can still change, and we won’t know exactly what the national mood will be 5 months from now.  Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it, folks.  🙂

While this is coming from Bob Novak’s column, I found it very interesting nonetheless.  I would still guess that Rendell won’t challenge Specter because (1) they are friends; and (2) I am not sure the Senate would be Rendell’s cup of tea.  

That being said, 2010 is a long ways away, plus Rendell realizes that after he leaves Harrisburg, he will be out of office completely.  It would certainly be a great opening, and there is no doubt Rendell would be our best possible nominee.  Besides, given Specter’s age, all of his talk about definitely running may just be bluster.  

SPECTER’S OPPONENT?

Pennsylvania’s popular Democratic Gov. Edward Rendell is reported by party sources to be considering a race for the Senate in 2010 even if his friend and fellow Philadelphian, Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, seeks re-election.

Specter has indicated that he wants a sixth term in the Senate, but that may depend on his health. He is suffering from a recurrence of cancer.

Republican insiders believe that Specter might decide to run as an independent if conservatives launch another serious Republican primary campaign against him, as they did in 2004. A three-way election would all but guarantee the election of a Democrat.  

Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for US Congress:

A very Happy Memorial Day Weekend from State Senator Major John Boccieri and Governor Ted Strickland!!!

The word coming out of Columbus, Ohio, in the Tribune Chronicle for the passage of his vets bill “just in time for Memorial Day.” Ian Walton, Campaign Manager, John Boccieri for US Congress has confirmed:

Huge News! The Veteran’s Bill Sponsored by John has just been signed by the Governor.

According to the Tribune Chronicle:

Just in time for the Memorial Day weekend, the Ohio Senate approved a bill designed to streamline veterans programs and make sure reservists don’t lose their jobs when they are deployed overseas.The bill creates a Department of Veterans Services that consolidates existing programs under its director.

Last May, Gov. Ted Strickland formed a council to study what would be needed to create the new cabinet level post. At the time Strickland said his executive order:

…lays the foundation to ensure Ohio’s veterans and their families will always have a strong voice in state government.

State Senator Major John Boccieri, a member of the council that crafted the legislation said:

The group worked on it all summer to make sure we did this right for our veterans.

He was the sponsor of the provision to help protect reservists and National Guard members who come back to Ohio and find their old job is gone. Federal law already required employers to rehire the troops in their old jobs at the old pay rate.

Boccieri said 99 percent of employers do just that. But he said a growing number of soldiers are returning home from war to find their jobs are gone.The only recourse soldiers have now is through the federal courts, where it can take two to three years to resolve the dispute.

Often veterans walk away from the fight. What veteran can afford to fight for years for their job in federal court while needing to put bread on their family’s table?

The Major, who served four tours of duty as a C-130 Hercules Commander, said:

The bill is a first step in honoring veterans. SB 176 puts the job guarantee into state law, allows veterans to seek relief in state courts and it requires judges hear those cases first. The new law should resolve job disputes in a matter of months.

The presidential primaries are heading towards a not so climactic conclusion and so the time has come to focus some attention on the congressional races. I haven’t updated the  rankings since January and a lot has changed in the past 5 months, starting with the resolution of contested primaries in Oregon, Nebraska, North Carolina and probably Minnesota. Both parties have gone through final recruitment pushes, with the GOP playing a tragicomedic farce in New Jersey and suffering through one more round of failures in South Dakota and Iowa.

Meanwhile, a number of seats that had remained relatively quiet up to now have been seeing more action in the past few months. In Colorado, Bob Schaffer had been holding unexpectedly strong for most of 2007 but he was hit by a scandal over his ties with Jack Abramoff. In Oregon, the DSCC decided it had to soften Gordon Smith early to have a chance in November and started airing an attack ad against the incumbent. In Minnesota, it was Democrats who took a hit when it was revealed that Al Franken had trouble with taxes. And in Alaska, Mark Begich officially jumped in the Senate race — though it had been many months that his candidacy had become clear.

But it is the lower ranked seats that created the most wave in the first half of 2008. It has become increasingly apparent that Democrats are successfully expanding the map, putting the dream of a filibuster-proof (however unlikely it still is) back on the table. As poll after poll show that seats like North Carolina, Texas and even Kansas — not to mention Mississippi and Alaska, which were barely on the table back in the fall but which are not first-tier races on their own right — are within Democrats’ reach, the Senate picture is becoming increasingly nightmarish for the GOP. The NRSC is not in quite as big a financial hole as their House counterpart, but the Republicans have to be prepared to have their resources stretched thin. The DSCC is sending staffers to organize in Oklahoma, a clear sign that they are determined to put as many states in play as possible. For now, they are succeeding beyond even their expectations.

Check the January rankings here.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 5-8 Senate seats, with a bigger gain more likely than a  smaller one.

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 6 seats, for a 57-43 majority. This is the highest number of pick-ups I have predicted yet, though I think I am remaining on the safer side.

Likely Takeover (1 Republican seat, 0 Democratic seats)

1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)

If Democrat Mark Warner had not chosen to jump in this Senate race, he would surely have been near the top of both Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama’s vice-presidential list. That he chose to run in Virginia instead demonstrates his confidence that he will be elected in November against fellow former Governor Jim Gilmore. Polls consistently show a double-digit lead for Warner, and given how many other seats the NRSC must defend it is unlikely they will invest anything to defend their chances here.

Lean Takeover (2 R, 0 D)

2. New Mexico (Open; Previous ranking: 2)

The Republican primary between Representatives Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce is getting increasingly aggressive, with two high-profile politicians facing the end of their political careers, in a primary no less. The Club for Growth is now getting involved on behalf of Steve Pearce. Meanwhile, Tom Udall is building his general election campaign and looking increasingly formidable in polls. He is also amassing a considerable financial advantage — he has three times as much cash-on-hand than his opponents combined — and is using the funds to already air his first ads re-introducing himself to all voters. New Mexico is as closely divided a state as there is in the country; but in a year that structurally favors Democrats, any Democratic nominee starts with a clear generic advantage — even more so when he is as popular as Udall.

3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Previous ranking: 3)

After a slight down-tick in polls at the end of 2007 — perhaps because of her husband’s heavily publicized comments about Obama’s past drug use — Jeanne Shaheen has reclaimed a convincing lead against Senator Sununu. How early the challenger jumped to a clear lead and how stable that lead has been since then confirms that this race is looking to be the 2006 Santorum-Casey election. This is a race in which the Democrats’ success in expanding the map could prove critical, as it is unlikely that the NRSC will have a dime to spend to help a badly trailing Sununu if states like North Carolina, Texas or Mississippi look to be in any way endangered.

Toss-up (4 R, 1 D)

4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 4)



In the first seat to open up this cycle, Colorado’s Senate race was quiet for most of 2007 as both parties settled on their nominees relatively early. Expectations favored Democrat Mark Udall given past trends in the state, but Republican Bob Schaffer held on, as  poll after poll found Colorado to be a toss-up. But the past few months have been rough for Schaffer. First, the Denver Post revealed that Schaffer was associated with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and that a 1999 trip to the Marinas Island that was meant to examine labor conditions was arranged by Abramoff; this controversy gained attention and an independent group chose to air an ad in the Colorado Springs region to soften up Schaffer’s popularity.

Second, the Schaffer campaign committed a major gaffe mid-May when his campaign substituted a picture of Colorado’s Pikes Peak by Alaska’s Mount McKinley in an ad that was meant to emphasize Schaffer’s Colorado roots. While this is certainly a silly controversy, the reason Schaffer was running this ad in the first place was that there were questions about his attachment to Colorado and this only reinforces doubts people might be having about him. The DSCC jumped on the opportunity to air an ad also attacking Schaffer for his connections to Abramoff — confirming that this will haunt the Colorado Republican for many months to come.

The only poll taken since these ads started running showed Udall slightly expanding his lead but he is ahead only 6%, confirming that Schaffer is a much stronger candidate — and is holding on despite controversies — much more strongly than people envisioned a few months ago. This has been a surprising reality Democrats have been dealing with for a few months and while Udall would probably prevail if the election was held today the race is much too close for comfort.

5. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 8)

This race has been creeping up the rankings for months now. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich officially declared his candidacy at the end of April, in one of the DSCC’s best recruitment coups of this cycle. Democrats have had heartbreaks in Alaska over the past few years, but the state GOP is reaching rock bottom because of a corruption investigation that has engulfed most Republican figures — including Stevens and Rep. Young. Both of these incumbents are in grave danger of losing their seat. Stevens might be the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, but Begich is actually leading by 5 percent in the latest poll of the race. However, this remains Alaska and Stevens is as formidable a political force as it gets so this race will remain tight to the end.

6. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 5)

With the GOP’s failure to recruit a credible candidate in South Dakota and Iowa and with the farce played by New Jersey Republicans (see below), Louisiana is more than ever the Republicans’ only opportunity for a Senate pick-up come November. The size of the GOP’s Senate losses will likely depend on whether they can cushion their fall with a pick-up here. Louisiana has been trending Republican in recent cycles but Mary Landrieu has been preparing for a tight race for years now. Predictably, as this is the main — only? — seat in which they will go on the offense, Republicans will concentrate a lot of their fire power and resources in defeating Landrieu, as was confirmed by the fact that Republican candidate John Kennedy outraised the incumbent in the year’s first quarter.

But Democrats are certainly not panicking, as two polls in the past two months show Landrieu up double-digits and at or above 50% and found Landrieu with a strong favorability rating. Also, Don Cazayoux’s victory in LA-06’s special election bolsters the Democrats’ case that their party is much stronger than predicted in this state; but Republicans could also point to this special election to argue that the Louisiana environment is less pro-Democrat than the national one, as Cazayoux’s win against a flawed opponent was much tighter than Travis Childers’s victory against a better candidate and in a more Republican district (MS-01) ten days later. Republicans are determined enough to make this race competitive that the race will likely tighten considerably in the coming months.

7. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 6)

The first three months over the year looked very good for Democrat  Al Franken. His main opponent for the Democratic nomination, Mike Ciresi, abruptly withdrew from the race, essentially handing the DFL’s nod to Franken and allowing the comedian to focus his attention on Senator Coleman, who remains a savvy and fairly popular politician. Enjoying a wave of good press, as the media never ceased being stunned that an actor-comedian could wage a serious political campaign, Franken jumped to a lead against Coleman in numerous polls throughout February and early March. For an incumbent to not only be under 50% but to be trailing this far ahead of Election Day is a sign of great vulnerability.

Yet, it was Franken’s turn to weaken in the months that ensued, as it was revealed that Franken had to pay $70,000 in back taxes and penalties to 17 states. The press started piling on, raising questions about Franken’s sense of business and his competence,  and a SUSA poll found that a majority of Minnesota voters said that Franken should withdraw and that these revelations made them less likely to support him. Election Day is 6 months from now, and Franken will have time to change the topic of conversation, but all polls in the past few months show Coleman has regained a lead and generally comes in above 50%. And Republicans will be sure to use the issue in the fall campaign.

8. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: 9)

At the time of my previous rankings, we did not yet know whether Mississippi’s election would be held in March or in November, as Republicans insisted that they could wait until the fall to hold the special election, despite the law’s pretty obvious phrasing to the contrary. In mid-January, a judge ruled in favor of the Democratic Attorney General, setting up a March election, only to be overruled two weeks later by the state Supreme Court. This was a huge relief for Republicans, as it means that they would not have to worry about a low-turnout election in which Democrats would surely be more motivated (as we saw with MS-01, they would indeed have been so) and newly-appointed Wicker will have the advantage of incumbency.

Yet, Democrats have a lot going for them as well, and this judicial decision is the only good news the GOP got from Mississippi over the past few months. First, Democrats managed to unify behind one candidate, former  Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Since this is a special election with no primary, it was not necessarily obvious that they would be able to do so and they had to wait until mid-February to convince former Rep. Snows to not attempt a run.  Second, Mississippi Republicans are in as bad a shape as the national party. Travis Childers’ picked-up MS-01 on May 13th, a district that Bush had carried with 62% and confirming that there is a road to victory for Musgrove — a road that some Democrats believe will be only strengthened by Obama’s presence on the ticket, which will bolster black turnout. Third, the November election will be a special election which in this state means that the partisan affiliation of both candidates will not be written on the ballot. In a state as conservative as Mississippi, that is a great asset for any Democratic candidate, one that helped Childers on May 13th and that will help Musgrove in the fall.

Fourth, Musgrove should almost be considered the incumbent in the race; he is better known than his adversary and he is fairly popular, while Wicker remains rather unknown, which could give the Democrat some of the incumbency advantage. Finally, polls are confirming that this race will be tight, with the latest survey showing Musgrove leading by 8%. It is a partisan poll released by the DSCC, so take it with a grain of salt, but other non-partisan polls of the Musgrove-Wicker showdown confirm that it is highly competitive.

For the rest of the rankings, including the lean retention seats (Oregon, North Carolina) and the quickly developing second-tier races (Texas, Oklahoma), check the full rankings here, on Campaign Diaries.  

Hey there folks, TJ from Loaded Orygun here–Oregon’s progressive community and a member of the 50-State Blog Network.

All eyes are obviously turned towards Oregon later tonight, but without any results until at least 11pm eastern–and no exits to pore over–some folks might get a little edgy from all the “Obama can’t hack the working class” nonsense on cable and need a distraction to get ready for the GOOD news.

The first thing to check out is the nuts and bolts election info provided by one of our members, skywaker9. Ballot dropoffs, other websites to visit, where to get results, how vote by mail works here–lots of great stuff.

We’ve been mostly covering the Senate race between Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley, and I’m sure what most folks would like to know is, who’s gonna win? And the answer is…no one knows for sure. But there have been four polls in the last 8 days on the race, and taken together they definitely give us some clues.

Want something a little peppier, visual and shorter to read through? What’s easier than videos? Check out the candidates responding to the most recent SUSA, Novick’s ad on Hardball last night, and what some pundits have called “the best 90 seconds of the primary.”  

Finally, a look at some of the many non-Oregon publications that have featured Novick or addressed the Senate race. Prominent among recent articles is the AP piece essentially pitting Novick against Chuck Schumer, but there’s also a top-notch bio piece by the Oregonian if you need to find out more about the man, a great interview in slashdot–plus links to all of the 12 state newspapers that endorsed Novick.

Enjoy your virtual visit to Oregon, and I hope your candidate wins!

According to the lastest Survey USA poll Tom Udall is crushing both potential republican foes.  In head to head matchups Udall leads Pearce by 24 points and Wilson by 26.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…

Udall (D) – 60

Pearce (R) – 36

Udall (D) – 61

Wilson (R) – 35

In the Republican primary poll Pearce currently leads Wilson by 3.

Pearce – 49

Wilson – 46

My money is on Pearce winning the republican nomination rather easily given he is more conservative than Wilson.  It seems to matter little though which candidate Udall faces, Wilson and Pearce have bloodied each other so badly that neither can win the general.  Then number that really jumps out at me is Udall carrying >70% of the Hispanic vote.  That is HUGE in a state like NM.