Tag: OH-Sen

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (12/10-12, Ohio voters, no trendlines):

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 43

Mike DeWine (R): 43

Undecided: 14

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 43

Jon Husted (R): 38

Undecided: 18

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 43

Jim Jordan (R): 35

Undecided: 22

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 40

Mary Taylor (R): 38

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Says Tom Jensen:

Ohio voters are pretty evenly divided on whether Brown’s done a good job in office so far – 40% approve of his performance while 37% disapprove. Democrats overwhelmingly like him, by a 66/9 spread. Republicans for the most part dislike him with only 16% approving to 62% who disapprove. The biggest problem for Brown though is independents – with them only 28% approve to 48% disapproving. To put those numbers into some perspective Ted Strickland, who was just defeated for reelection, is at a 38/42 spread with independents.

This race is likely to be priority #1 for progressives this cycle – and it won’t be an easy one.

• AK-Sen: Nothing has really changed with the overall trajectory of the Alaska Senate race, but this is the first day that Lisa Murkowski has been able to claim a “lead” over Joe Miller (even though her victory has become increasingly clear each day). At the end of yesterday’s counting, she had 92,164 votes to Miller’s 90,448. 7,601 were subject to challenge but counted for her anyway (and, if Miller’s lawsuit succeeds, could get reversed), but based on Murkowski’s success at avoiding write-in challenges, is on track to win with or without those challenged ballots.

• FL-Sen: George LeMieux, whose year-and-a-half in the Senate is about to expire, is leaving with more of a whimper than a bang, if PPP is to be believed: his approvals are 11/28 (with 61% with no opinion), including 14/24 among Republicans. He’s not looking like he’d have much impact in a challenge to Bill Nelson in 2012, which he’s threatened (which isn’t to say that Nelson is out of the woods, as a stronger Republican will no doubt come along). Among all the appointed Senators, he’s still faring better than Roland Burris (18/57) but worse than Carte Goodwin (17/22) and Ted Kaufman (38/33). (Oh, and if you’re still feeling like we lost out by not having Charlie Crist win the Senate race, guess again: Bob Dole! is reporting that Crist promised him he’d caucus with the GOP if he won the 3-way race. This comes after leaks in the waning days of the race that he’d caucus with the Democrats. Somehow, I expect any day now that Ralph Nader will reveal that Crist promised him that he’d caucus with the Green Party if he won the race.)

• IN-Sen: Richard Lugar made it official; he’s running for re-election one more time. Lugar, who’ll be 80 in 2012, probably has more to worry about in the Republican primary than he does in the general election, where aspiring Democrats would probably be more interested in the open gubernatorial seat.

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown will probably have a tougher re-election than his initial election, but it’s unclear which Republican he’ll face. The two who’ve gotten the most press are Mary Taylor, the current Auditor and newly-elected Lt. Governor, or Rep. Jim Jordan (a religious right fave from the state’s rural west), but another possibility that the article broaches is long-time Rep. Steve LaTourette, one of the House’s more moderate GOPers left. Either way, if Jordan or LaTourette were to try for the promotion, that would help the state GOP decide which of their seats to vaporize in the redistricting process (although LaTourette’s, in the northeast corner and surrounded by Dem seats, would be much harder to work with). Ohio’s losing two seats, though, and one more Dem seat is on the chopping block, especially since the biggest population losses have come in the northeast — the likeliest outcome seems to be consolidation of districts that sets up either a Dennis Kucinich/Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich/Betty Sutton mash-up.

• PA-Sen: The GOP feels like they have a shot against Bob Casey (who won by a near-overwhelming margin in 2006), given the state’s turn toward the red this year. The big question, though, is who? If Tom Ridge didn’t do it this year when it would have been a gimmee, he certainly isn’t any likelier to do it in 2012. Hotline mentions a couple current suburban Reps., Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent, both of whom have tenaciously held down Dem-leaning districts that would be prime open seat battles if they left. Failing that, the bench looks pretty empty; they cite state Sen. Jake Corman as interested, as well as talk radio host and behind-the-scenes player Glen Meakem, who cited interest in running for 2010 but decided against it.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s SoS (a Dem, Mark Ritchie) has laid out the timeline for the recount process. The race will be canvassed starting Nov. 23, and presuming a recount is necessary (which it will be unless something weird happens with the canvass, as Dem Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by less than one-half of a percent, triggering the automatic recount provision), the recounting will begin on Nov. 29.

• MD-01: Nothing like teabagger hypocrisy at work: freshly elected with a mandate to destroy the federal government, Andy Harris’s first act in Washington was to demand all the free goodies from the federal government that he’s entitled to, so long as other people are paying for them. At freshman orientation, Harris was observed expressing dismay that his gold-plated health care plan takes a month to kick in.

• NY-01, NY-25: Here are a couple more updates from overtime. In the 1st, Randy Altschuler’s lead over Tim Bishop is currently 383, but there are more than 11,000 absentees to be counted starting today, and since they’re all from one county (Suffolk), your guess is as good as mine how they break. In NY-25, Ann Marie Buerkle gained a tiny bit of ground as two GOP-leaning counties reported their absentees; she’s now up 729. Dan Maffei’s base, Dem-leaning Onondaga County, is about to start counting its 6,000 absentees. He should make up some ground, but he’ll need to average 56% among the remaining absentee ballots, while he’s only got 54% in Onondaga so far, though.

• DSCC: Dianne Feinstein told the press that Michael Bennet is, despite his previous demurrals, going to be the next DSCC chair. Does Michael Bennet know this? He’s still saying no. The rest of the Dem leadership in the Senate (and the GOP, too) was elected without a hitch today, but the DSCC job still stands vacant.

• CA-AG: Things keep looking up for Kamala Harris in California, after a torrent of new votes yesterday from Alameda County (where the Dem stronghold of Oakland is). That batch broke 18,764 for Harris, and only 5,099 for Steve Cooley, which may be a decisive moment in the count.

• Chicago mayor: Rahm Emanuel is certainly looking like the early favorite in the Chicago mayoral race, courtesy of an Anzalone-Liszt poll commissioned by the Teamsters local (who haven’t endorsed yet). Emanuel is at 36, with Danny Davis at 14, Carol Mosely Braun at 13, Gery Chico at 10, James Meeks at 7, and Miguel del Valle at 4. Now you may be noticing what I’m noticing, that there’s significant splitting of the African-American vote here, and if you added Davis, Braun, and Meeks up into one super-candidate, they’d be in a dead heat with Emanuel. Well, don’t forget that this election uses a runoff, so chances are good we’ll see a head-to-head between Emanuel and one of the African-American challengers, and the poll finds Emanuel winning both those contests convincingly too: 54-33 versus Davis and 55-32 against Braun.

It’s still the week of Election Day, which means it’s time to take an incredibly premature look at the Senate races developing in 2012. As you may have heard, the map favors the GOP, suggesting that the party may have their second big cycle in a row. However, theoretically, the Democrats had a favorable map in 2010 and they ended that without a single pick-up.

Instead of making predictions that are sure to be outdated in two months, let alone two years, I’m embracing the uncertainty. For each race, this preview will look at:

The best-case and worst-case scenario for the incumbent party; a rating on which scenario is more likely to happen (1 for worst-case, 10 for best-case)

Likely candidates, mostly made up of this year’s “Tommy Thompsons”. If you’ll recall, for most of 2009 and early 2010, pundits and observers thought the only way Russ Feingold would be in trouble is if Tommy Thompson ran. In nearly every state, there’s the “obvious” candidate(s) that conventional wisdom cements as the “only viable” candidate(s)-Schwarzenegger in California, Huckabee in Arkansas, Napolitano in Arizona, and these projections are more often wrong than right.

Retirement shock: every cycle features retirements, some expected and some unexpected. This looks at where such a retirement would fall. (1 for expected (like Bunning), 10 for completely shocking (like Bayh))

And for kicks and giggles, a “cattle call” to be preserved for posterity, so we can look at this diary 23 months from now and look at all the things we didn’t know would happen.

Democrats (and those who caucus):

California, Diane Feinstein

Best-case scenario: Given the lean of the state and disinterest among strong contenders, Feinstein fails to attract a major nominee and runs against a Dick Mountjoy-esque candidate.

Worst-case scenario: California’s budget woes only get worse under Gov. Brown, resulting in high dissatisfaction across the state; the GOP nominates a Hispanic candidate for President or Vice-President while other Hispanic national stars become more prominent, stopping or even reversing the hold Democrats have on the Hispanic vote; Obama’s victory in California is secured while he is mired campaigning full-time in a dozen battleground states away from the Pacific West, so he spends little time getting out the vote. Feinstein loses in a squeaker to a moderate, governance-minded Republican.

Scenario rating: 6 out of 10; Feinstein will probably pick up a more serious challenger, but have little problem defending her seat.

Possible candidates: Tom Campbell, Steve Poizner, Steve Cooley

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; At age 77, she’s far from “old” for the Senate, and she stated she’s running again at a recent Boxer rally.

Race rating: DEM Favored

Connecticut, Joe Lieberman

Best-case scenario: Lieberman retires or runs and is easily defeated in the primary.

Worst-case scenario: Lieberman defects and runs as a Republican, or Lieberman runs third-party and who knows what happens.

Scenario rating: ??? out of 10; who knows?

Possible candidates: Chris Murphy, Joe Courtney, Ned Lamont, Sam Caliguiri, Tom Foley, Rob Simmons

Retirement shock: 3 out of 10; it wouldn’t shock anyone, but it’s not expected.

Race rating: Lean DEM

Delaware, Tom Carper

Best-case scenario: With no bench and Carper’s decision to run again, the GOP leaves the race unchallenged, or worse, nominates Christine O’Donnell.

ALTERNATIVE: Carper retires and Beau Biden decides to run for the seat.

Worst-case scenario: Carper decides to retire, and Mike Castle decides to run; having learned their lesson last time, he is unchallenged for the nomination.

Scenario rating: 8 out of 10; I think a Carper-Biden swap is likely, and the reason why Biden didn’t run in 2010.

Possible candidates: Beau Biden, Mike Castle, Christine O’Donnell, Michele Rollins

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10; Carper has repeatedly denied health issues but has had a long and successful political career. At age 63, he could easily run again but his retirement likely wouldn’t catch anyone off guard.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Florida, Bill Nelson

Best-case scenario: Rick Scott implodes as a Governor; Obama makes a major push to win Florida again; the GOP nomination is beset with infighting and a far-right and battle-fatigued candidate emerges from the scrum.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP nominates a solid candidate that keeps the party unified; the economy stays in similar shape; Marco Rubio is on the 2012 ticket or otherwise barnstorms around the state with his arm around the shoulder of the GOP nominee.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; Nelson will be a big target, and Crist’s defection left the state GOP remarkably solidified. There are a number of GOPers on the bench that could make this a marquee race.

Possible candidates: George LeMiuex, Jeb Bush, Connie Mack IV

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Daniel Akaka, Hawaii

Best-case scenario: Akaka runs for re-election and Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, and Charles Djou pass on the race.

Worst-case scenario: Akaka doesn’t run for re-election and Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, or Charles Djou runs.

Scenario rating: 4 out of 10; Akaka says he’s “definitely running again”, but either way I think one of those three runs. Half of either scenario coming true would make this a 5 out of 10, but since I think Akaka’s retirement is moderately possible, I’ll downgrade it to 4.

Possible candidates: Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, Charles Djou, Ed Case, Mufi Hannemann

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10

Race rating: DEM Favored

Ben Cardin, Maryland

Best-case scenario: Cardin is ignored in his bid for a second term.

Worst-case scenario: Some scandal tars the entire state party and Bob Ehrlich runs.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10; Ehrlich has said he’s done with elections and Michael Steele is running for RNC Chairman again.

Possible candidates: Mary Kane

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10; Cardin is a freshman and will likely hold the seat as long as he wants.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Debbie Stabenow, Michigan

Best-case scenario: A brutal GOP primary made up of lackluster candidates produces a far-right but unqualified nominee.

Worst-case scenario: A pragmatic-minded GOP candidate gets the party unified behind him/her and runs a solid campaign against Stabenow.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; There’s always the potential for a sideshow, but Rick Snyder’s nomination and landslide victory provides a good template for the state GOP to use. If the party gets its act together, Stabenow will be in real trouble.

Possible candidates: John Engler, Terri Lynn Land, Candice Miller, David Camp, Mike Cox

Retirement shock: 6 out of 10; it’s not particularly likely, but given the turmoil in the Michigan Democratic Party, not that many people would be searching for a reason why.

Race rating: Toss-up

Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar

Best-case scenario: Most interested parties pass on the race, preferring to take on Franken in 2014 when Obama won’t be on the ticket, and Klobuchar is given a free pass against a minor nominee.

Worst-case scenario: She attracts a major challenger.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; we’re now looking at the personal whims of a handful of candidates who could theoretically make this a race, but it just seems unlikely that the GOP will be playing significant offense here.

Possible candidates: Norm Coleman, Tom Emmer, Jim Ramstad, Erik Paulsen, Paul Koering, Steve Sviggum

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: DEM Favored

Missouri, Claire McCaskill

Best-case scenario: A Tea Party candidate emerges from the primary on a far-right platform.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP primary unifies behind a solid nominee.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10; while anything can happen in a primary, the Missouri GOP seems to be able to keep things under control. This is going to be one of the top targets for the GOP, and they’ll do anything they can to keep it that way.

Possible candidates: Jim Talent, Sarah Steelman, Jo Ann Emerson, Sam Graves

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Montana, Jon Tester

Best-case scenario: The big name candidates decide to run for the open Governor’s seat instead of challenging him.

Worst-case scenario: The best-case scenario doesn’t happen.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10

Possible candidates: Denny Rehberg, Marc Racicot

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Ben Nelson, Nebraska

Best-case scenario: The big names pass on the race and Nelson faces another underwhelming or unknown opponent.

Worst-case scenario: Dave Heineman enters the race and clears the primary field.

Best-case scenario (for Nelson, not Democrats): Nelson agrees to a deal where he switches parties in exchange for not being primaried.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10; even if Heineman decides not to run, there are still others who would make this a competitive race.

Possible candidates: Dave Heineman, Jon Bruning, Jeff Fortenberry, Lee Terry, Adrian Smith

Retirement shock: 6 out of 10; Nelson seems to be committed to the idea of running again, which is good because Democrats really don’t have that many other options here.

Race rating: Lean GOP

New Jersey, Bob Menendez

Best-case scenario: The state unifies behind a weak nominee or several big names pass on the race, leaving perhaps an underfunded and too conservative candidate.

Worst-case scenario: A strong and pragmatic nominee emerges with the support of Chris Christie, who receives a spike in approval ratings.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; this is a purely candidate-driven race. In a state like Jersey, the Democrats have the advantage.

Possible candidates: John Crowley, Tom Kean Jr., Steve Lonegan

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico

Best-case scenario: No real challenger emerges and Bingaman coasts to another election.

Worst-case scenario: Bingaman retires and Democrats are left unprepared.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10.

Possible candidates: Heather Wilson, Pete Domenici Jr., Allen Weh

Retirement shock: 7 out of 10; Even though he’s a five-term Senator, Bingaman is only 67 years old.

Race rating: Safe DEM

New York, Kristen Gillibrand

Best-case scenario: Like in 2010, no big name rises to the occasion to challenge her.

Worst-case scenario: Gillibrand simultaneously receives a primary challenge that empties her bank account and leaves her scatched coming out of the September primary, while a strong GOP challenger awaits.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10; 2010 was the time for either of those two things to happen.

Possible candidates: George Pataki, Rick Lazio

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

North Dakota, Kent Conrad

Best-case scenario: Conrad runs again and with John Hoeven already in the Senate, there’s no one left to challenge him.

Worst-case scenario: Conrad retires.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; I don’t know what Conrad is going to do, but right now there’s no obvious reason why this would be a race.

Possible candidates: Rick Berg, Jack Dalrymple, Wayne Stenehjam

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; after Dorgan’s retirement, I don’t think anyone would be shocked to death if this happened.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Ohio, Sherrod Brown

Best-case scenario: The GOP nominates a lackluster candidate while Obama’s ground-game massively turns out of the vote.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP nominates a solid candidate and Obama’s campaign team focuses on other battleground states.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; I think Obama will focus here, so it depends on who the nominee will be.

Possible candidates: Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mike DeWine, Mary Taylor

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Pennsylvania, Bob Casey

Best-case scenario: Casey attracts only a minor candidate, or an otherwise roughed-up or far-right candidate.

Worst-case scenario: Casey attracts a solid candidate who runs with a unified party behind him/her.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; a lot could go wrong for either side here.

Possible candidates: Jim Gerlach, Rick Santorum

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse

Best-case scenario: Sheldon Whitehouse runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Whitehouse is discovered to be a serial killer.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10

Possible candidates: Don Carcieri, John Robitaille, John Loughlin

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

Vermont, Bernie Sanders

Best-case scenario: Sanders runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Vermonters suddenly decide they don’t like socialists.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10

Possible candidates: Les Britton, Paul Beaudry, Brian Dubie, Jim Douglas

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10; Sanders is 69, but he’s also a freshman.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Virginia, Jim Webb

Best-case scenario: The Virginia GOP nominates someone from the far-right, like Del. Bob Marshall

Worst-case scenario: Webb declines to run again, catching the party off-guard, while the GOP nominates a solid candidate.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; a lot could go wrong here for both parties.

Possible candidates: George Allen, Bob Marshall, Corey Stewart, Ken Cuccinelli, Bill Bolling, Tom Davis, Rob Wittman

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; Webb has been low-profile and all reports indicate he doesn’t enjoy life in the Senate.

Race rating: Toss-up

Washington, Maria Cantwell

Best-case scenario: Deflated from losing in 2010, the Washington GOP gives this race a pass while focusing on the Governor’s race instead.

Worst-case scenario: Cantwell attracts a strong challenger and is caught flat-footed in campaigning.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; I can see a decent challenger emerging, but Cantwell will probably be fine.

Possible candidates: Clint Didier, Don Benton, Dave Reichart, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

West Virginia, Joe Manchin

Best-case scenario: Manchin threads the needle of being a Washington D.C. Democratic incumbent with maintaining his popularity back home.

Worst-case scenario: Manchin is viewed as “going Washington” at the same time he’s down-ballot from Obama.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; it could really go either way here, however the GOP still needs a strong challenger.

Possible candidates: Shelley Moore Capito, Betty Ireland, David McKinley

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Wisconsin, Herb Kohl

Best-case scenario: Kohl runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Kohl retires.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; I’ve heard both, but I’ve also heard of people preparing for Kohl to retire, so it looks like no one would be caught off guard.

Possible candidates: Ron Kind, Tom Barrett, Paul Ryan

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Republicans:

Arizona, Jon Kyl

Best-case scenario: No serious candidate emerges against Kyl

Worst-case scenario: A serious candidate emerges against Kyl

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; how serious remains to be seen, but this looks to be near the top of a short list for Democrats.

Possible candidates: Gabrielle Giffords, Terry Goddard, Felicia Rotellini

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Lean GOP

Indiana, Richard Lugar

Best-case scenario: Lugar runs for re-election and isn’t seriously challenged

Worst-case scenario: Lugar retires or is primaried by a far-right hardliner

Scenario rating: 6 out of 10; Lugar has announced for another term, but he’s near the top of the Tea Party hitlist. We’ll see who they come up with and if they follow through.

Possible candidates: Marlin Stutzman, Brad Ellsworth

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10; Lugar will be 80 in 2012.

Race rating: GOP Favored

Maine, Olympia Snowe

Best-case scenario: Snowe isn’t primaried.

Worst-case scenario: Snowe is primaried.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; if Snowe is the nominee, she’ll coast to victory as she always has and always will. If the Tea Party is stupid enough to challenge her and wins, they’ll have given Democrats another seat for free.

Possible candidates: Chandler Woodcock, Elias Cutler, Tom Allen

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: GOP Favored

Massachusetts, Scott Brown

Best-case scenario: Martha Coakley runs again.

Worst-case scenario: Democrats put forward a strong nominee while Scott Brown has to fight to get out of the primary, if he’s even able to.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; I see Brown getting re-nominated pretty easily, but he’ll have a tough challenger regardless.

Possible candidates: Mike Capuano, Joe Kennedy, Ted Kennedy Jr., Stephen Lynch, Ed Markey, Marty Meehan, John Tierney, Elizabeth Warren

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Mississippi, Roger Wicker

Best-case scenario: Wicker runs again.

Worst-case scenario: Some major skeleton is found in Wicker’s closet.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10; there’s some talk of a primary challenge to Wicker, but it’s not clear who or if it would even matter.

Possible candidates: Travis Childers, Gene Taylor

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Nevada, John Ensign

Best-case scenario: Ensign retires or resigns quietly, the GOP nominates a solid alternative, and Democrats fail to capitalize on the situation.

Worst-case scenario: Ensign somehow wins the nomination or a far-right candidate wins; meanwhile more embarrassing stuff about Ensign comes out throughout the cycle.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; this state has been a constant headache for the GOP.

Possible candidates: Brian Krolicki, Dean Heller, Dana Titus, Rory Reid, Shelley Berkley, Oscar Goodman

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10; Ensign says he’s running but that may not hold up.

Race rating: Toss-up

Tennessee, Bob Corker

Best-case scenario: Corker is unchallenged in the primary and Democrats, still reeling from 2010, decline to pursue.

Worst-case scenario: Corker gets a primary challenge and Democrats nominate a solid candidate.

Scenario rating: 8 out of 10

Possible candidates: Steve Cohen, Phil Bredesen

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Texas, Kay Bailey Hutchison

Best-case scenario: Hutchison quietly retires and a strong GOP emerges from the primary, while Democrats pass on the race.

Worst-case scenario: GOP infighting produces a roughed-up nominee while the Democrats coalesce behind an up-and-comer.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; it could go either way.

Possible candidates: Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Elizabeth Jones, David Dewhurst, Tom Leppert, Bill White, John Sharp, Chet Edwards

Retirement shock: 1 out of 10; it’ll be a shock if she runs again.

Race rating: Lean GOP

Utah, Orrin Hatch

Best-case scenario: Whether Hatch is primaried or not, the GOP puts up a candidate for the race.

Worst-case scenario: Republicans nominate someone extremely radical while Jim Matheson runs for the Democrats.

Scenario rating: 1 out of 10

Possible candidates: Jason Chaffetz

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10; whether a retirement is forced or not, Hatch’s departure wouldn’t shock anyone.

Race rating: Safe GOP

Wyoming, John Barrasso

Best-case scenario: Barrasso runs again, or doesn’t.

Worst-case scenario: In the greatest paperwork snafu of history, Republicans accidentally forget to file and are without a nominee.

Scenario rating: 1 out of 10

Possible candidates: Gary Trauner

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Summary:

Anything could happen. Everyone learned that lesson coming into the 2010 cycle. However, it strains the imagination to come up with a scenario where Mississippi, Tennessee, Utah, or Wyoming become winnable for Democrats, and states like Indiana and Maine would require a series of events to come onto the map. The only targets otherwise are Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Texas; as far as maps go, that’s pretty favorable for Republicans.

Meanwhile, it all depends on candidate recruitment, but assuming no real failures (like FL-2006 or DE-2010), Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are top targets immediately. Developments could put Minnesota, New Jersey, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin on the map, while California, Hawaii, and Washington remain long-shots.

Putting even the fringiest of races on the table, Republicans have 6 targets to defend to the Democrats 12-15. Looking at likely targets, its 4 to 8. It’s possible, like 2010 for the GOP, those 8 races all break for the incumbents while the 4 races stay as targets and others come onto the map. However, even if the 2012 cycle was a neutral cycle, this would still favor Republicans.

Now we just have to sit back, wait for retirements to come in, see if any unexpected appointments or tragic passing put another race on the map, and watch as our best combined conventional wisdom falls apart in front of our eyes.

Here’s my initial 2012 cattle call. What’s yours?

1. Nebraska (D)

2. Massachusetts (R)

3. Montana (D)

4. Virginia (D)

5. Missouri (D)

6. Nevada (R)

7. Florida (D)

8. Michigan (D)

9. Ohio (D)

10. Pennsylvania (D)

11. Arizona (R)

12. West Virginia (D)

13. Texas (R)

14. Wisconsin (D)

15. New Jersey (D)

16. Indiana (R)

17. Connecticut (D/I)

18. North Dakota (D)

19. Minnesota (D)

20. Washington (D)

21. Maine(R)

22. Hawaii (D)

23. California (D)

24. Tennessee (R)

25. Delaware (D)

26. New Mexico (D)

27. New York (D)

28. Mississippi (R)

29. Maryland (D)

30. Utah (R)

31. Vermont (D/I)

32. Rhode Island (D)

33. Wyoming (R)

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August, September and October rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To start with it may be worth highlighting the numbers from each of those previous three diaries.

August Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

September Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

October Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

I call that a trend. And not a good one. Unfortunately these final projections continue that trend.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WA (Not at all confident here. And it will probably take several weeks to see if I’m right.)

Rep Tilt

NV (Polling could well be unreliable here but I have to go with it. Hope I’m wrong.)

CO (Bennet has held on well here but I suspect the year is too much for him.)

IL (Still possible that unexpected Dem turnout can save Alexi.)

PA (Sestak has closed fast but I don’t think it will be quite enough.)

Dem Lean

CA (This one was a worry at times but I think most of us always felt confident enough.)

WV (Still say he was crazy to push for an election this year but it looks like Manchin will get away with it.)

Rep Lean  

WI (Poor campaign from Feingold but may not have mattered. His principles are both admirable and frustrating all at the same time.)

AK (Murkowski likely pulls it off but weird things happen up there. No result of the three would shock me.)

Dem Favored

DE (Chris Coons will be my favorite Dem Senate Freshman. Not that there is much competition.)

CT (Another that caused a few nerves but the fundamentals always suggested retention.)

Rep Favored

MO (The state may be trending away but I think, like many before her, Robin will be back.)

NH (Many say Hodes ran a poor campaign. I don’t buy it. The year made it impossible here with so many indies.)

KY (Paul would have won even without Conway ad own goal. At least he will be entertaining.)

OH (Nobody was beating Portman this year with all that cash.)

FL (Rubio may or may not be a national figure in waiting but Crist is certainly done on that front.)

NC (Biggest recruiting fail of the cycle but even someone like Cooper may have struggled with the environment.)

IN (Surprisingly lackluster campaign from Ellsworth.)

AR (The state has finally broken to join the rest of the region in becoming Republican.)

LA (Vitter is scum but the electorate down their think Obama is scummier.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

OR (Kitzhaber turned things around just in time.)

VT (If Rasmussen says Shumlin is leading I’m more than happy to believe him for once.)

FL (Biggest consolation prize of the night.)

Rep Tilt

CT (Late momentum for Foley probably keeps this Republican.)

OH (Strickland may well yet pull this out. Would be a another great consolation prize.)

IL (Can turnout save Quinn? Probably not but possible.)

Dem Lean

CA (Money can’t buy you love and all that. Always preferred nostalgia myself.)

MN (I wonder what would have happened here without the perennial third wheel?)

MA (Very impressed with Patrick’s recovery. Cahill makes little difference in the end.)

HI (Abercrombie recovering from a few shaky polls.)

CO (Suspect Tancredo’s ceiling is 45 percent.)

RI (Chafee ain’t a Dem but Caprio makes him as good as.)

NH (Nature of the year that this ended as close as it did.)

Rep Lean  

PA (D, R, D, R. Like clockwork.)

TX (Very hopeful White has another run in him.)

GA (Environment means no return for Barnes despite Deal’s ethical issues.)

NM (Denish weighed down by Richardson and national environment but Martinez a good nominee anyway.)

WI (Barrett never could shake bad environment and Doyle’s unpopularity.)

SC (Tighter than many expected but Haley wins nevertheless.)

ME (Hoping Cutler can pull a shocker here but probably not.)

Dem Favored    

MD (Senator O’Malley in the future perhaps? Maybe the cabinet?)

NY (I suspect Paladino may well cost the GOP some House seats.)

AR (Beebe bucks the tide quite easily.)

Rep Favored

NV (One Reid was quite enough already.)

MI (Figure that Bernero may out perform the polls a little but still won’t get close.)

AZ (Hating Brown people saves Brewer her job.)

OK (Nobody really ever expected to be even remotely competitive here did they?)

IA (Culver may well have lost to any Republican. He never had a chance agianst Branstad.)

TN (There are many worse people than Haslam that could be winning this for Republicans.)

KS (I do wonder if this would have been competitive in a better year. Parkinson may even have had an outside shot this year.)

AL (Sparksmania didn’t quite materialize.)

ID (Otter polls surprisingly weak once again but that hardly matters up here.)

AK (Ethan Berkowitz meet Tony Knowles. You have much in common.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Final Projection

SENATE – GOP +8

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

Bonus Projection

HOUSE – GOP +46-51

Get ready for the mother of all poll dumps:

• AK-Sen, Gov PPP:  Joe Miller (R) 37%, Scott McAdams (D) 30%, Lisa Murkowski (WI) 30%; Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%

• AR-Gov Rasmussen: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 60%, Jim Keet (R) 38%

• AR-Sen Rasmussen: John Boozman (R) 55%, Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 36%

• AZ-Gov Rasmussen: Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%

• CA-Sen, Gov PPP: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• CA-Sen, Gov SurveyUSA: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%; Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (D) 37%

• CA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (D) 41%

• CO-Sen Marist: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%

• CO-Sen, Gov PPP: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 48%, Tom Tancredo (C) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 8%

• CO-Sen, Gov YouGov: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 49%, Ken Buck (R) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 40%, Dan Maes (R) 9%

• CT-Sen, Gov PPP: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Tom Foley (R) 49%, Dan Malloy (D) 47%

• CT-Sen, Gov Qpac: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 44%; Tom Foley (R) 48%, Dan Malloy (D) 45%

• CT-Sen Rasmussen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%

• CT-Gov Rasmussen : Tom Foley (D) 48%, Dan Malloy (R) 46%

• CT-Sen, Gov YouGov: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

• FL-Gov, Sen PPP: Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 47%; Marco Rubio (R) 47%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%

• FL-Gov, Sen Quinnipiac: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 43%; Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%

• FL-Sen Rasmussen: Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 16%

• FL-Gov, Sen Susquehanna for Sunshine St. News: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 46%; Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%

• FL-Gov Univ. of S. Florida for NYT: Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 39%

• FL-Gov, Sen YouGov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 45%; Marco Rubio (R) 46%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%, Kendrick Meek (D) 15%

• GA-Gov Mason-Dixon: Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%, John Monds (L) 6%

• IA-Sen, Gov Selzer for Des Moines Register: Terry Branstad (R) 50%, Chet Culver (D-inc) 38%; Charles Grassley (R) 61%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%

• IL-Sen Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%

• IL-Sen, Gov PPP: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%; Bill Brady (R) 45%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

• IL-Sen, Gov YouGov: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%; Bill Brady (R) 47%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

• KY-Sen PPP: Rand Paul (R) 55%, Jack Conway (D) 40%

• KY-Sen YouGov: Rand Paul (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 44%

• MA-Gov WNEC: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 42%, Charlie Baker (R) 37%, Tim Cahill (I) 11%

• ME-Gov MPRC for Down East: Paul LePage (R) 39%, Eliot Cutler (I) 29%, Libby Mitchell (D) 24%

• ME-01 Critical Insights for Maine Today Media: Dean Scontras (R) 45%, Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 41%

• MN-Gov PPP: Mark Dayton (D) 43%, Tom Emmer (R) 40%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

• MO-Sen YouGov: Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%

• NH-Sen, Gov PPP: Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%; John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 44%

• NH-Gov Rasmussen: John Lynch (D-inc) 51%, John Stephen (R) 45%

• NH-01, 02 UNH: Frank Guinta (R) 46%, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 39%; Ann McLane Kuster (D) 43%, Charlie Bass (R) 40%

• NM-Gov ABQ Journal: Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%

• NV-Gov Mason-Dixon: Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 35%

• NV-03 Mason Dixon: Joe Heck (R) 53%, Dina Titus (D-inc) 43%

• NV-Sen, Gov PPP: Sharron Angle (R) 47%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Scott Ashjian (T) 3%; Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 44%

• NV-Sen, Gov YouGov: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%; Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 40%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov Siena: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 37%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 64%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov SurveyUSA: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 62%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov YouGov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 58%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 34%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 60%, Jay Townsend (R) 34%

• OH-Sen, Gov Columbus Dispatch (mail-in): John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47%; Rob Portman (R)56%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%

• OH-Sen, Gov PPP: John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• OH-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: John Kasich (R) 47%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%; Rob Portman (R) 56%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%

• OH-Sen Rasmussen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 33%

• OH-Sen, Gov Univ. of Cincinnati: John Kasich (R) 52%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 60%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• OH-Sen, Gov YouGov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%; Rob Portman (R) 52%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• PA-Sen Marist: Pat Toomey (R) 52%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%

• PA-Sen, Gov Muhlenberg: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

• PA-Sen, Gov PPP: Pat Toomey (R) 51%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%

• PA-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: Pat Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

• PA-Gov Rasmussen: Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%

• PA-Sen, Gov Susquehanna for Tribune-Review: Pat Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%

• PA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 40%

• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Mason-Dixon: Gary Herbert (R-inc) 59%, Peter Coroon (D) 32%; Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%

• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Dan Jones (for Deseret News): Gary Herbert (R-inc) 63%, Peter Coroon (D) 29%; Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%

• VA-05 POS for Robert Hurt: Robert Hurt (R) 45%, Tom Perriello (D) 42%

• VT-Gov Rasmussen: Peter Shumlin (D) 50%, Brian Dubie (R) 45%

• WA-Sen Fox/Pulse: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WA-Sen Marist: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

• WA-Sen PPP: Dino Rossi (R) 50%, Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%

• WA-Sen YouGov: Patty Murray (D-inc) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WI-Sen Marist: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%

• WI-Sen, Gov YouGov: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%; Scott Walker (R) 53%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%

• WV-Sen PPP: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 46%

• WV-Sen Rasmussen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 46%

• FL-Sen: File this under half a year too late and a few million dollars too short. Charlie Crist, as quietly as possible through an advisor making a leak to the Wall Street Journal, says he’d caucus with the Democrats if elected. If he’d said that many months ago, he would have probably had a clearer shot consolidating the Democratic vote and turning it into a two-man race. This comes shortly after a day of conflicting reports on whether or not Bill Clinton tried to get Kendrick Meek to drop out of the race, as recently as last week. Clinton and Meek have offered partial rebuttals, but at any rate, it’s kind of a non-story at this point with only a few days left.

• LA-Sen: Too bad there isn’t time left in the cycle to turn this into an ad: David Vitter’s verbal gymnastics at the last debate as to direct questions as to whether or not he actually broke the law when he was engaging in “very serious sin,” apparently for pay. The short answer is, of course, yes (assuming that his involvement with a prostitution ring occurred in Washington DC and not Reno).

• NV-Sen: Those of you following Jon Ralston’s tweets of the early voting in Nevada with bated breath probably already know this, but thanks to the movement of the mobile voting booths into some Dem-friendly areas, Democrats have actually pulled into the lead (at least by party registration) among early voters, up by 20,000 in Clark County.

• CO-Gov: My first question was why Tom Tancredo would even bother running for office if he felt this way, but then I remembered that he’s running for an executive position this time, not a legislative one. Apparently he’s a believer in a strong executive. Very, very, very strong.

There is a sort of an elitist idea that seeps into the head of a lot of people who get elected. And they begin to think of themselves as, really, there for only one purpose and that is to make laws. And why would you make laws?

• IL-Gov: Oooops, ad buy fail. A round of Bill Brady ads were pulled from the air on Thursday because the appropriate television stations didn’t get paid first. It appears to have been a “glitch” (their words) rather than a cash flow problem, though, nothing that a Fed-Exed check won’t fix: the ads will resume running tonight.

• PA-Gov: Ah, nice to see that a Republican briefly acknowledge that the fewer people vote, the better Republicans do. Tom Corbett, at a Philadelphia appearance, said that he wanted to keep Democratic participation down, saying “we want to make sure that they don’t get 50 percent.”

• OH-13: Sensing a pattern here? A second woman is coming forward to accuse Tom Ganley of sexual harassment. She filed a police report stating that in 2005, while in the middle of a car transaction, Ganley groped her and later propositioned her. This race, despite Ganley’s money, is seeming increasingly like one of the House Dems’ lesser worries.

• RGA: I’m not sure what you can do with $6.5 million in half a week, but the RGA is determined to find out. They put that much money into four governor’s races in some of the nation’s largest states: Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and (interestingly, since they haven’t sweated this one before) Pennsylvania. (While the other three are for TV ads, in Florida it’s for GOTV… seemingly something that Rick Scott forgot to purchase.)

• Election night: This may be the most shocking news of all today, for the obsessive number crunchers among us. This will be the first election where the powers that be (mostly the AP) will be doing away with precinct reporting. Instead of giving specific numbers of precincts in, they’ll be expressing it as “percentage of expected vote.” The change in longstanding tradition has mostly to do with the increasing prevalence of mail-in votes and early votes, best seen with some locales dumping all their early votes all at once and calling it one precinct, messing with people like us who build complicated models ahead of time.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk’s last ad calls Alexi Giannoulias “too immature” for the Senate (um, has he actually seen the Senate in action?)

• NV-Sen: Obama! Fear! Tyranny! Aaaghh! And apparently the Carmina Burana playing the background! (Sharron Angle’s closing statement, in other words)

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold puts on a plaid shirt and faces the camera, touting his accomplishments and newspaper endorsements

• TX-Gov: Bill White also rolls out his newspaper endorsements, as well as lobbing “career politician” at Rick Perry one last time

• MN-06: Taryl Clark’s last ad is a look at real people with real problems in the 6th, and the myriad ways Michele Bachmann blew them off

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Dan Maes (R) 5%, Tom Tancredo (C) 42%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 41%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 46%, Charlie Baker (R) 44%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 53%, Jim Huffman (R) 42%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

• YouGov: The English pollster is out with a slew of polls; the numbers seem very plausible, but they’re conducted over the Internet (probably using at least some sort of rigor, but that alone is enough for relegation to the end of the digest)

• CA: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%; Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

• FL: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 41%; Kendrick Meek (D) 18%, Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%

• NY: Andrew Cuomo (D) 57%, Carl Paladino (R) 27%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 35%

• OH: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%; Lee Fisher (D) 40%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

• PA: Dan Onorato (D) 41%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%; Joe Sestak (D) 44%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

Lee Fisher mails it in (the rest of his campaign cash, that is):

As the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported  yesterday, Fisher — the Democratic nominee for Senate — decided to turn what little campaign cash he has left — $100,000 — over to the state Democratic Party for general GOTV efforts.

Two weeks ago, “Fisher’s campaign for U.S. Senate was down to $308,631 in its bank account,” the paper reported. “Sums like that don’t last long and replenishing it is a challenge when a candidate lags in the polls.”

Though Fisher has promised “he is not abandoning the campaign or giving up” against former Rep. Rob Portman (R), the Columbus Dispatch reports that the move by Fisher “essentially drained his campaign treasury.”

This is the end. My only friend, the end…

As miserable a race as this was for Team Blue despite such great hopes when George Voinovich announced his retirement, at least Fisher is using what little change he has left for a good cause. There are some retiring Democrats who refuse to do the same!

• AL-Gov (Univ. of S. Alabama): Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 48%

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov (Suffolk): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: Kamala Harris leads Steve Cooley 35-34 in the AG race, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 55-40)

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov (SurveyUSA for KABC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 40%; Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 38%

(Bonus: Gavin Newsom leads Abel Maldonado 42-34 for LG, and “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 46-44)

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov (PPP): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%; Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%

(Bonus: “no” leads “yes” on Prop 19 45-48)

• CA-20 (SurveyUSA for KFSN): Jim Costa (D-inc) 42%, Andy Vidak (R) 52%

(note: this poll population is 37% Hispanic, compared with 67% in reality) (also, the DCCC responded with a poll giving Costa a 47-41 lead, although they neglected to leak the pollster’s name) (UPDATE: The pollster is Bennet Petts & Normington, with the sample over the same 10/21-24 period as SurveyUSA)

• CT-Sen, CT-Gov (Quinnipiac): Richard Blumenthal (D) 54% (54), Linda McMahon (R) 42% (43); Dan Malloy (D) 48% (49), Tom Foley (R) 43% (42)

• FL-08 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Alan Grayson (D-inc) 41% (36), Daniel Webster (R) 48% (43), Peg Dunmire (T) 4%

• GA-Gov (InsiderAdvantage): Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 47%, John Monds (L) 5%

• ID-Gov, ID-Sen, ID-01, ID-02 (Mason-Dixon for Idaho newspapers): Keith Allred (D) 30%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%; Tom Sullivan (D) 20%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 64%; Walt Minnick (D-inc) 44%, Raul Labrador (R) 41%; Mike Crawford (D) 17%, Mike Simpson (R-inc) 67%

• IA-Gov (Global Strategy Group for Chet Culver): Chet Culver (D-inc) 40%, Terry Branstad (R) 46%

• IL-Gov (MarketShares for Chicago Tribune): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 39% (39), Bill Brady (R) 43% (38), Scott Lee Cohen (I) 5%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%, Lex Green (L) 2%

• IL-Sen (Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC): Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38%, Mark Kirk (R) 36%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%, Mike Labno (L) 4%

• KY-Sen (PPP): Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

• KY-03 (RiverCity for Todd Lally): John Yarmuth (D-inc) 41%, Todd Lally (R) 37% (note: n = only 239, yet they claim MoE of 4.5%)

• LA-02 (Anzalone-Liszt): Cedric Richmond (D) 49%, Joe Cao (R-inc) 32%

• MD-Sen (Baltimore Sun): Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 59%, Eric Wargotz (R) 32%

• NC-Sen (SurveyUSA for WRAL): Elaine Marshall (D) 38%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 53%, Mike Beitler (L) 5%

• NC-Sen (Tel Opinion Research for Civitas): Elaine Marshall (D) 34%, Richard Burr (R-inc) 44%, Mike Beitler (L) 4%

• NJ-03 (Monmouth): John Adler (D-inc) 43% (42), Jon Runyan (R) 48% (39)

• NJ-03 (Eagleton/Rutgers): John Adler (D-inc) 44%, Jon Runyan (R) 44%, Peter DeStefano (I) 4%

• NJ-06 (Monmouth): Frank Pallone (D-inc) 52% (53), Anna Little (R) 45% (41)

• NM-Gov (POS for Susana Martinez): Diane Denish (D) 42%, Susana Martinez (R) 50%

• NM-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Diane Denish): Diane Denish (D) 45%, Susana Martinez (R) 46%

• NY-20 (Siena): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42% (54), Chris Gibson (R) 51% (37)

(The Murphy camp leaked an internal from Global Strategy Group today, although only saying a 3-point lead without specific toplines)

• OH-Gov, OH-Sen (Quinnipiac): Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43% (41), John Kasich (R) 49% (51); Lee Fisher (D) 36% (34), Rob Portman (R) 53% (55)

• OH-Sen (Wilson Research, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Lee Fisher (D) 38%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

• OH-Sen (Univ. of Cincinnati for Ohio newspapers): Lee Fisher (D) 39%, Rob Portman 58%

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Ipsos for Reuters): Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 46%; Dan Onorato (D) 43%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

(Sestak leads 46-42 among RVs, and even Onorato leads 46-43 among RVs)

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (Muhlenberg): Joe Sestak (D) 40% (42), Pat Toomey (R) 48% (47); Dan Onorato (D) 39% (41), Tom Corbett (R) 50% (49)

• PA-08 (POS for Mike Fitzpatrick): Patrick Murphy (D-inc) 40%, Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 50%

• PA-10 (Lycoming): Chris Carney (D-inc) 45%, Tom Marino (R) 39%

• SD-Gov (Neilson Brothers): Scott Heidepriem (D) 40%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 43%

• VA-09 (SurveyUSA for WDBJ): Rick Boucher (D-inc) 46%, Morgan Griffith (R) 47%

• WI-Gov (Mellman Group, not apparently on anyone’s behalf): Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 47%

With only two weeks remaining, it’s time for another round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings. With DCCC triage in full effect, giving us a clear picture of who’s on the very wrong side of the House firewall, you may notice that this is the first time we’ve added House incumbents to the “Lean Republican” column. (In an interesting bit of symmetry, FL-24 was also the first race in 2008 where we dropped an incumbent — Tom Feeney — to “Lean D,” also about two weeks prior to the election.)

• DE-Sen: Lean D to Likely D
• FL-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• OH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• WI-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

• IL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
• ME-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
• NH-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
• SC-Gov: Likely R to Lean R

• AR-04: Safe D to Likely D
• AZ-07: Safe D to Tossup
• AZ-08: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-11: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-20: Likely D to Lean D
• FL-24: Tossup to Lean R
• GA-08: Lean D to Tossup
• ID-01: Tossup to Lean D
• IL-11: Tossup to Lean R
• IL-17: Lean D to Tossup
• IN-08: Lean R to Likely R
• MA-04: Safe D to Likely D
• MI-15: Safe D to Likely D
• MN-08: Safe D to Likely D
• MS-04: Likely D to Lean D
• NC-08: Lean D to Tossup
• NJ-12: Likely D to Lean D
• NY-04: Safe D to Likely D
• NY-22: Safe D to Likely D
• OH-01: Tossup to Lean R
• OH-06: Likely D to Lean D
• OH-09: Likely D to Safe D
• OH-13: Tossup to Lean D
• OH-15: Tossup to Lean R
• OR-04: Safe D to Likely D
• PA-03: Tossup to Lean R
• PA-07: Lean R to Tossup
• TX-17: Tossup to Lean R
• WA-08: Likely R to Lean R

28 of these changes favor Republicans; 9 races (DE-Sen, 3 of the 4 gubernatorial races, and 5 House races, including the Ohio implosion duo) have moved in the Democratic direction.

AK-Sen: National Research, Inc. for the Club for Growth (10/8-9, likely voters):

Scott McAdams (D): 27

Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc): 31

Joe Miller (R): 33

(MoE: ±4.9%)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov, Prop 23: Ipsos for Reuters (10/12-14, likely voters, 10/2-4 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (45)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

Meg Whitman (R): 44 (43)

Yes on 23: 35

No on 23: 46

(MoE: ±4.6%)

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

Dan Malloy (D): 49 (45)

Tom Foley (R): 42 (42)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

FL-Gov: Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (10/12-13, likely voters, 9/28-10/3 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 48 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 44 (50)

(MoE: ±2.2%)

HI-Gov: Aloha Vote for Honolulu Civil Beat (10/11, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 47

Duke Aiona (R): 44

(MoE: ±2.9%)

KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Survey USA for KWCH-TV (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Tom Holland (D): 32 (32)

Sam Brownback (R): 60 (59)

Andrew Gray (L): 3 (3)

Ken Cannon (Ref): 4 (4)

Lisa Johnston (D): 27 (24)

Jerry Moran (R): 67 (66)

Michael Dann (L): 2 (2)

Joe Bellis (Ref): 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

For SoS, Dems trail 35-53; for State Treasurer, it’s 39-55. For Attorney General, appointed Dem Steve Six trails Derek Schmidt 40-48.

MA-Gov: Suffolk University (10/10-12, registered voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 46 (41)

Charlie Baker (R): 39 (34)

Tim Cahill (I): 10 (14)

Jill Stein (G): 1 (4)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-Gov: Critical Insights for Maine Today Media (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29 (33)

Paul LePage (R): 34 (33)

Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (10)

Shawn Moody (I): 7 (6)

Kevin Scott (I): 1 (-)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 42 (38)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)

Tom Horner (IP): 14 (18)

Other: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, 9/23-29 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 35 (35)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

Other: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: Mason–Dixon for the LVRJ (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 45 (43)

Sharron Angle (R): 47 (43)

Other: 2 (2)

NOTA: 2 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 37 (37)

Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (51)

Other: 2 (3)

NOTA: 1 (2)

(MoE: ±4%)

NV-Gov: Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 43 (38)

Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (52)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

NV-Gov: Suffolk University (10/8-11, likely voters, in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 39

Brian Sandoval (R): 50

Other: 2

NOTA: 3

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bonus findings: Incumbent LG Brian Krolicki (R) leads Dem Jessica Sferrazza 42-30, Dem SoS Ross Miller leads 40-24, Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall trails 33-38, and Dem Controller Kim Wallin leads 31-26.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, WHEC-TV, and WNYT-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 59 (57)

Carl Paladino (R): 33 (34)

Other: 6 (5)

Chuck Schumer (D): 63 (60)

Jay Townsend (R): 30 (30)

Other: 4 (6)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 54 (54)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 36 (35)

Other: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Manhattan/Bronx state Senator Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Staten Island DA Dan Donovan (R) for Attorney General 44-40, down from 46-40 a week ago.

OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Poll(10/8-13, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 58 (55)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (45)

John Kasich (R): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK-Sen: Sooner Poll (10/3-7, likely voters):

Jim Rogers (D): 22

Tom Coburn (R-inc): 62

Other: 2

(MoE: ±5.2%)

Other results here find the GOP leading for all statewide offices: 40-28 for LG, 50-30 for Attorney General, 41-35 for Insurance Commissioner, 45-31 for Treasurer, 35-32 for State Superintendent, 44-33 for Labor Commissioner, and 41-35 for Auditor/Inspector. Dems had held most of these offices, if you’ll recall.

OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

John Kitzhaber (D): 46 (43)

Chris Dudley (R): 45 (49)

Greg Kord (C): 4 (3)

Wes Wagner (L): 3 (2)

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 56 (54)

Jim Huffman (R): 34 (38)

Bruce Cronk (WF): 2 (3)

Marc Delphine (L): 2 (1)

Rick Staggenborg (P): 2 (0)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

PA-Gov: Magellan (10/10, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 38 (38)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (50)

(MoE: ±2.3%)

VT-Sen, VT-Gov, VT-AL: Mason-Dixon for Vermont Public Radio (10/11-13, registered voters):

Patrick Leahy (D-inc): 62

Len Britton (R): 27

Other: 4

Peter Shumlin (D): 43

Brian Dubie (R): 44

Other: 5

Peter Welch (D): 61

Paul Beaudry (R): 25

Other: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

WA-Sen: Washington Poll (10/5-14, registered voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

Dino Rossi (R): 42

(MoE: ±4.3%)

WA-Sen: SurveyUSA for KING-TV (10/11-14, likely voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4.1%)