Tag: Kansas

Hello my fellow SSPers.  As a matter of full disclosure, I should mention that I have recently taken a top-level staff job with the David Haley for U.S. Senate campaign in the state of Kansas.  

I am in a quandary.  I just reserved a fairly large cable buy in important media markets here in Kansas.  As we have been talking about the content of our 30-second ad, I came to the realization that almost every web video I’ve seen has been better this cycle than production ads (except for Dale Peterson of course).   I would like to petition any and all of my fellow SSPers to ask anybody who is interested to submit a 30-second video to my gmail (jeffesparza@gmail.com).  My favorite video will be used as an ad in advance of our August 3rd primary (it should be noted that our target audience are primary voters).  Our website is under construction and should be up early this week (www.haleyforsenate.com).

I understand that this does not really fall inside the mission of SSP, but as a longtime commenter (and a lurker since long before that), I was hoping that David and James might cut me a little slack.

The rest of this diary is the majority of the content that will be up on our website.

The rest of this diary is the majority of the content that will be up on our website.

Facebook Link: http://www.facebook.com/haley4…

Twitter Feed: http://twitter.com/haley4senate

Contact us at 913-396-1314 or info@haleyfor senate.com

About David:

Kansas City, Kansas native Senator David Haley is in his 16th year in the Kansas Legislature, having served six years in the Kansas House and ten years in the Kansas Senate.  David serves as the Ranking Democratic Member of the Senate Health Care Strategies Committee and the Senate Public Health and Welfare Committee. He is also a member the Senate President’s Task Force on Health Care, the Child Protective Services Task Force and several standing committees, including: Senate Judiciary, Senate Redistricting, Joint Health Policy Oversight, Joint Corrections and Juvenile Justice, Joint State-Trial Relations, Joint Children’s Issues, State Trauma Board, Criminal Recodification, and Aging Advisory.

During his time in the legislature, Senator Haley has focused intently on living-wage job creation.  Whether working for STAR bond development for the Legends development in western Wyandotte County, helping the state update its antiquated minimum wage law, or preventing state and local governments from seizing private property, Senator Haley has a consistent record of supporting robust, sustainable private sector job growth.

David has fought hard to end illegal profiling practices. In 2005, he co-sponsored legislation that officially banned profiling of motorists by law enforcement officers. As an appointee to the newly-created Kansas Racial Profiling Task Force, David continues to protect Kansans from this illegal practice and has been instrumental in increasing the number of Kansans who have reported instances of such crimes.  In addition, his work on the Kansas criminal law recodification has helped make the Kansas criminal justice system more innovative, progressive, and fair; his recodification work will help reduce crime in Kansas over the long term making our cities and rural areas safer for businesses and families.

David continues to champion for a variety of other issues, including abolition of the death penalty, ending cruelty against animals, and finding viable solutions to the many health care challenges facing Kansas.

The proud father of four, David is a graduate of Morehouse College in Atlanta, GA, and of Howard University Law School in Washington, D.C.

David serves as the Ranking Democratic Member of the Senate Health Care Strategies Committee and the Senate Public Health and Welfare Committee. He is also a member the Senate President’s Task Force on Health Care, the Child Protective Services Task Force and several standing committees, including: Senate Judiciary, Senate Redistricting, Joint Health Policy Oversight, Joint Corrections and Juvenile Justice, Joint State-Trial Relations, Joint Children’s Issues, State Trauma Board, Criminal Recodification, and Aging Advisory.

David Haley on the Issues:

Abortion

Senator Haley believes that choosing to have a child is one of the most difficult decisions of a woman’s life.  This choice should be made with the best information available and is a choice that involves family, religion, and personal believes; this choice should not be made by the government.

Civil Rights

Senator Haley has worked for his entire career on issues of civil rights.  Criminal recodification, fighting illegal profiling, raising the standard of personal rights, and reforming our death penalty laws have been issues that David Haley has built real bi-partisan support around.  He also supports the Employment Non-Discrimination act.

Economy and Jobs

Governor Sebelius, David Haley, and a number of leaders across Kansas came together to help with the Legends and Speedway development in Wyandotte County.  With Haley’s leadership, Kansas can grow its economy with new private sector jobs like these along with new green-collar jobs all across Kansas.  As a moderate Kansan, David Haley has proven his ability to help drive economic development without wasteful spending or cuts in important programs like education.  This is why the MAINstream coalition has endorsed David Haley’s candidacy.

Financial Reform

When commercial banks and investment banks are allowed to securitize people’s hard earned money without any consumer protections, money will be traded at too great a risk.  The people of Kansas deserve to know how their money is invested; David Haley supports financial reform.

Gun Control

David Haley fully supports 2nd Amendment rights.

Health Care

Insurance companies should not be allowed to discriminate against people with pre-existing conditions.  David Haley has been a supporter of an option to allow private citizens to buy the same plan congress and government employees are allowed to purchase.

Labor

There has not been a more tireless supporter of labor organizations, working people, and Kansas small businesses than David Haley.  When David Haley becomes a United States Senator, working people will have a voice in Washington.

Military

David Haley supports the troops.  Unfortunately, our government does not do nearly enough for our nation’s veterans.  As a United States Senator, David Haley will work tirelessly to improve our VA hospitals and veteran job-training programs.

Our record:

Elected to the State Senate in 2000, Senator Haley has earned a reputation as an effective steward of tax dollars. He serves as ranking member of the influential Public Health and Welfare Committee and the Senate Judiciary Committee; and is also a key member of the State Tribal Relations; Recodifaciation; Rehabilitation and Restoriation; Early Childhood Coordinating Council; and the Corrections and Juvenile Justice committees. His previous committee service ¬ includes Senate Assessment & Taxation; Redistricitng; and the Kansas Sentencing Commission. He is the author of more than 40 bills in the Senate.

While a member of the House, Representative Haley was the only Wyandotte Countian serving on both the House Health & Human Services and the House Judiciary Committees (which held major impact for local and state residents) and a member of the Joint Committee on Health Care Reform. A third Committee assignment was Governmental Organizations & Elections. During this brief legislative tenure, Representative Haley advocated lower real/personal property taxes and stronger representation between elected official and their constituencies. He introduced more than 25 bills in the House.

A fiscal conservative, David has championed measures to curb waste and abuse in state government in order to save taxpayers money and guarantee continued funding for public education, criminal justice, health care, and other vital services. He has sponsored a wide range of critical legislation, from ending racial profiling of motorists to increasing penalties against those who are charged with extreme cruelty to animals. Senator Haley has fought for campaign finance reform, affordable housing, and individual development accounts to encourage personal savings among low-income families. He has led the charge against allowing the government to seize private property via unfair eminent domain laws and in favor of proven programs for non-violent ex-offenders to help them find jobs and re-enter society. His legislative and community advocacy have been chronicled on The Montel Williams Show (extreme animal cruelty); HBO (27th Street/Quindaro documentary); C-SPAN (37th Anniversary/March on Washington 2000); on numerous metropolitan broadcasts and in printed news accounts (view the Media page).

In the Media:

Kansas Free Press

David Haley: My Choice for Democrat in U.S. Senate Primary

By Marty Keenan

Opinion | June 8, 2010

GREAT BEND, Kan. – The fact that four Kansas Democrats are competing this year for a chance to run for a U.S. Senate slot is encouraging. Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in over 70 years, and the number of Democrats who want a shot at this is a sign of a growing, vibrant and optimistic party. The four candidates: David Haley, Charles Schollenberger, Lisa Johnston and Robert Conroy would all acquit themselves well in the general election.

But Haley is the only candidate who currently serves in elective office. He’s a fantastic public speaker. He has experience in running a statewide campaign. He has paid his dues to the Kansas Democratic Party.

Haley is not just the only candidate to hold political office, he’s a State Senator. And that’s a big deal. There are only 40 State Senators in Kansas, as opposed to 125 members of the Kansas House of Representatives. The title of “state senator” is shorthand for political success, a proven commodity. U.S. Senator Scott Brown, who snared Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat from the Democrats in Massachusetts, was a state senator. And that gave him credibility.

And he would help energize Kansas Democrats most faithful constituency: the African-American community. Haley’s family name (he’s the nephew of “Roots” author Alex Haley) would be sure to snare some national attention if he becomes the nominee. Kansas nominating an African-American to replace Sam Brownback? Now that’s a good story.

But I have a personal reason for supporting Senator Haley. You see, loyalty and friendship are #1 with me. Maybe it’s a blind spot I have. But in 2001, when I organized a film festival for Oscar Micheaux, the first African-American movie maker, who is buried in Great Bend, Senator David Haley was there for me.

Senator Haley not only traveled to Great Bend to speak at the event in 2001, he introduced a Senate resolution honoring Oscar Micheaux. Some of Oscar Micheaux’s cousins and I got to sit in the State Senate chambers when the resolution was introduced.

Our efforts to honor Micheaux must have paid off. This month the U.S. Postal Service is rolling out the Oscar Micheaux Black Heritage Series Stamp, with a special ceremony in Great Bend and other places, like Brooklyn, Atlanta and other cities around the country.

When my mother died unexpectedly on May 27, 2002, David Haley contacted me. I was floored. “How the did you find out about this?” I asked. “Marty, I always read the obituaries, ALWAYS,” he said. He offered words of comfort to me in a difficult time.

Christian musician Dallas Holm once said: “A person with an experience is never at the mercy of a person with an argument.” And many might argue with me about whether Haley is the best nominee. But, you see, I’ve had personal experiences with Haley that cause me to favor him. Politics is about people, about helping those who have been there for you. It’s always been that way.

But Democrats throughout the state don’t need a personal reason to vote for Haley. They should vote for him because he’d be the best nominee for the party in November.

First, Haley has paid his dues. In 2002 when Kathleen Sebelius was running for her first term as governor, the Kansas Democratic Party basically drafted David Haley to run for secretary of state. Haley didn’t win, but his presence on the ticket helped energize the African-American constituency statewide, and they went to the polls and helped Sebelius become Governor.

Haley ran again for secretary of state in 2006, this time on his own volition. Although Haley lost again to popular Republican incumbent Ron Thornburgh, Governor Sebelius was reelected by a larger margin in 2006 than she got in 2002, plus Democrat Paul Morrison ousted Republican Attorney General Phill Kline by a comfortable margin. Also, Democrat Nancy Boyda upset incumbent Congressman Jim Ryan. It would be hard to argue that Haley on the ticket did anything but help other Democrats in both 2002 and 2006. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat for Secretary of State since 1948, but at least Haley tried.

Former State Senator Billy McCray was the first African-American to run for statewide office in 1982. He ran for secretary of state, at the request of Democratic Governor John Carlin, who was running for reelection that year. McCray ran a good campaign. Although he lost, he knew he helped turn out the African-American votes for the party.

I know and respect both Haley and McCray, and they ran for statewide office because they wanted to win and be secretary of state. But in the back of their minds, surely they suspected they were, at some level, being “used” by the Kansas Democratic Party to spike black turnout on election day.

I abhor the “use” of African-American candidates simply as a tool to help white Democrats turn out the black community on election day.

I want black candidates to run to WIN, and to serve. And Haley wants to be a U.S. senator, and he would be a good one.

This year, the state Democratic establishment is not pushing Haley to run. But of all the candidates, he’s the one who has paid his dues. Serving in the legislature, attending hundreds of rubber chicken Democrat dinners, running for secretary of state. Haley has paid his dues in a thousand ways.

A Democrat winning a U.S. Senate race in Kansas is a long shot. But whoever survives the Republican primary (Moran or Tiahrt) will have an empty campaign kitty on August 3, and both have run so far to the right as to scare many Kansas voters.

“Hope Springs Eternal” with Kansas Democrats, and David Haley is getting my vote on August 3. He’s been there for me. But most of all, he’s paid his dues.

When I first heard that Stephene Moore was running to succeed her husband in Congress, I was really disappointed that we’d put up what I saw as a “Hail Mary” type of candidate in a district where it didn’t have to be that way. As someone born and raised in KS-03, it was extra disappointing.

The reaction from friends and family in the area was similar–what the heck do the Moores think they’re doing? There were tons of questions–mostly along the lines of why Dennis would “retire from politics” and yet have his wife run? And of course, the wingnuts went crazy with a weird attack that the Moores wanted a second congressional pension and that was why Stephene would subject herself (and her husband) to continued political fire.

But might Stephene Moore turn out to be just the type of candidate we need this cycle to hold the seat? The conclusion I came to might just surprise you…

Quick note on her name: Stephene is pronounced just like “Stephanie.” But before we get into the reasons why Stephene might just turn out to be a better candidate than Dennis, first, let’s get to better know the district….

KS-03 contains part of Douglas County & all of Wyandotte Co. (WyCo, though locals now often call it “The Dot”), which are, by far, the two most liberal counties in the state. Douglas has the young, progressive college town of Lawrence while WyCo, despite recent suburban-style growth around the new-ish NASCAR speedway, is poor majority-minority urban core neighborhoods for the most part. These counties provide any Democrat with a big chunk of votes, as they often vote up to 75-25% in favor of Team Blue, depending on the race. Unfortunately, they only make up roughly 20% of the vote (or less, depending on turnout).

The third and final county in KS-03 is suburban Johnson County (JoCo). That’s where I grew up and where my parents and a good chunk of my family still lives–and it’s where elections are decided for KS-03. It’s also the richest and most populous county in the state…it’s kinda like “The OC” of the Kansas City metro area. And like The OC, it’s growing increasingly diverse and moving steadily toward Democrats, albeit from a heavily Republican base.

So in order to win KS-03, a Democrat must at least run pretty darn close to the Republican in JoCo, so that votes from WyCo & Douglas will put the Dem over the top.

The JoCo voters that Moore was able to attract–moderate Republicans and right-leaning indies–tend to be upper-middle-class economic moderates (think Chamber of Commerce/country club types who supposedly hate taxes but have frequently voted to raise them if it means they get services they want, like good schools…more on this later) with mildly progressive social views (pro-choice, anti-creationism, pro-stem cell research, fairly pro-gay) that are likely a consequence of high education levels as anything else.

My parents, for example, are college-educated white-collar professionals who are socially liberal (having a gay son helps) and economically moderate. Mom’s a Democrat, Dad’s a somewhat more conservative indie (again, statistically typical) and since 1998, they’ve happily voted and displayed yard signs for Dennis Moore, while simultaneously being represented by (and seeming happy with) “moderate” Republican state Rep. Kevin Yoder, who’s running in the KS-03 Republican primary against a host of ultraconservatives, and teabaggers.

But up until this weekend when we chatted, my folks were uncharacteristically angry over Stephene Moore as the Democratic standard-bearer, mostly from a nepotism POV. However, I think I convinced them (and my previously-doubty self) that she could be a really good candidate who deserves support…and has some unique attributes beyond her name that make her particularly qualified to win this cycle.

So let’s get the nepotism charge out of the way…I pointed out that it’s really not nepotism if voters get to choose every step of the way–it’s not like Moore resigned mid-term and the Democratic governor appointed Stephene. No, Moore announced his retirement early and KS Dems spent months casting about unsuccessfully for a candidate. When they couldn’t find one with a chance in hell of winning, good ole Dennis once again rode to the rescue by encouraging his wife to run. The bottom line is that if KS-03 voters so choose, they won’t be represented by Stephene Moore for even a day.

Of course, to even have a chance, she has to run a heckuva campaign (as she presumably watched Dennis do every two years). In terms of her campaign so far, I’ve been pleasantly surprised…in announcing, she came right out and said that she wasn’t entitled to the seat and then in the same breath stressed her Johnson County roots and qualifications for the office.

But the biggest surprise may be that, when I learned more about Ms. Moore and started to think about it, she actually seems rather uniquely qualified to contest the seat this year… perhaps even more than her husband, and current Congressman, Dennis (though I still believe he would’ve won, since he’s done it before in even tougher circumstances).

But I do think KS-03 voters might just choose her to represent them in the end. Here’s why…

I think that in KS-03 in 2010, the big issues are likely to be health care, abortion (that’s a perennial in KS), gov’t spending, education and the stupid economy. On every single one, Stephene is, rather surprisingly, seemingly better equipped (at least in theory) to defend the positions that she and Dennis mostly share on these issues.

Health care: Stephene’s a longtime nurse, while none of her potential opponents has worked in health care (nor has Dennis for that matter) giving her a distinct personal knowledge advantage. A Republican backing full repeal (like all the conservatives) or a moderate whose only healthcare idea is tort reform (Yoder) will compare unfavorably.

Abortion: As a woman and more importantly, as a high-risk obstetrics nurse, I’m sure she has more experience and insights on this issue and why abortions need to remain legal than any opponent, period. And it would take a ballsy (and stupid) Republican to call a woman who’s delivered 1000 Kansan babies a “baby-killer.” Attention, Emily’s List, you’re needed in KS-03.

Gov’t Spending: She can glom onto Dennis’ hard-earned fiscal conservative reputation and promise the same, while repudiating his vote for the unpopular bank bailout. Dennis would’ve had to defend that one.

Education: Admittedly, education is not usually a federal issue/one that affects a congressional race, but there are a few other factors in play this cycle….

#1 – State budgets have been slashed, cutting aid to JoCo’s prized schools, which has made a lot of locals nervous. Even my empty-nester parents are worried because great local schools buoy the value of their home.  

#2 – The latest budget proposal that had even more cuts was created by state Rep. Yoder, the moderate Republican front-runner (and chair of the Appropriations Cmte). This will almost certainly come back to haunt him.  

#3 – A mom and grandma (those are all her grandkids in the first pic), Stephene’s done a lot of work with local schools on healthy eating and skin cancer prevention and thus can credibly portray herself as a big supporter of local schools. And giving her room to bash the hell out of Yoder for trying to destroy them. Plus, she bakes. It’s tough to attack an apple pie mom who bakes.

Economy: President Obama’s stimulus will also likely be a vote that local Republicans will use to try and shred Moore’s reputation for fiscal responsibility. Stephene will be able to eschew responsibility for specific items she might be attacked with, while defending the idea (fortunately, the voters she has to attract understand Keynesian economics).

There are a few other factors that might have an effect….

The 2010 Cycle: It’s an anti-incumbent year, and while Stephene doesn’t exactly scream anti-incumbent, she’s still less of an incumbent than Dennis. And the Republican front-runners are all current or very recent elected officeholders.

The Teabagger Effect: Here’s the thing about Kansas: Republicans have been fighting the conservative vs. moderate battle for ages. It’s how Dennis first got elected, actually. With teabaggers riled up, the primary could turn out to be more divisive than expected, despite the exit of conservative favorite Nick Jordan.

So…do you think Stephene Moore can cook up a win?

With the withdrawal of barely-candidate pharmabiz guy, Kansas Democrats are in need of a gubernatorial candidate.

At this point, Some Dude would be a step up. But I think Kansas Democrats can do better.

We can get someone credible. Yes we can.

Gov. Mark Parkinson– Why won’t he run and save us from Brownback? He is the A List. He just issued this statement, which is actually his softest yet on the re-election question, which he’d heretofore always strenuously denied:

Asked whether he would reconsider running for the office, Parkinson said in a statement: “The 2010 elections are still very far away. In the meantime, I am focused on responsibly balancing the budget and getting Kansans back to work.”

So who knows?

State Sen. Anthony Hensley– Competent state senator, senate minority leader, definitely has solid enough experience and likely the best of the rest on paper, at least. He already acts as a strong opposition leader, putting out a statement against Brownback’s preemptive attacks on Wiggans, so he won’t roll over. Could raise decent money. From Topeka, which is among the swingiest and better-populated places in Kansas.

Con: Might be better in the State Senate? Or prefer it? Has lots of votes Brownback can attack.

Joshua Svaty – State Agriculture Secretary – Pro:experienced former State Representative from red Ellsworth recently appointed to his current position. Young, attractive fifth-generation farmer with solid NRA ratings. And his Dad got his seat when he left it and now his Dad is all into it! How cute is that! NRA-approved, rural-friendly moderate male will also have big potential crossover appeal.

Con: Just got appointed, might be prohibited from campaigning in office. Might be better to let him gain experience and not encourage him to sacrifice his career on in a race where he’d be the David to Goliath.

Good bio: http://www.kansasfreepress.com…

Alan Jilka – former Salina Mayor– Pro: Former Salina Mayor, was going to be the “sacrificial lamb candidate/maybe they’ll nominate an actual Nazi and I can win candidate” for the open seat in KS-01. He could switch over without any great loss.

Con: No one knows who he is, if he can run the state, or if he can raise money to match Brownback’s millions. Salina only has 42,000-ish people.

Dan Hesse – CEO of Sprint – Pro: Wealthy businessman, but not a total a-hole by most accounts. According to a survey by Glassdoor, he’s by far the most popular telecom CEO according to his employees, which helps since there are literally thousands in this district. l don’t know if he’s even a Democrat…but if he’s unaffiliated, and switched to the Democrats to run for Governor, I totally think he could win a primary. KS Dems are a pretty pragmatic bunch.

Con: I don’t know if he lives in KS, but Sprint’s headquartered there. Don’t know if he’s a Democrat or would even consider running.

Official Sprint bio: http://www2.sprint.com/mr/ex_d…

Rolf Potts – Travel Writer – I told ya, crazy. Pro: From Salina, lots of family there, maintains family farm there. Founded Vagablogging and is a successful small businessman. Kinda almost famous.

Con: Probably would rather be a travel writer and too footloose and worldly. Never held office.

Bio: http://www.rolfpotts.com/bio

Burdett Loomis – Univ. of KS Professor of Political Science – Pro: Would be seen as knowledgeable about politics while also being very non-partisan. Has some experience as “Director of Administrative Communications, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, 2005.” The KU connection would drive up his vote share in Douglas & Johnson Counties.

Con: An academic, no business experience, no elected experience. Kansas State connection would drive down his numbers in Manhattan.

KU Bio: http://www2.ku.edu/~kups/peopl…

Chris Steineger – State Senator – Okay, yes, he’s an elected official and not supposed to go in this section. But what’s his deal? He seemed to look at a run then decide against it. Nice website but hasn’t been updated recently.

Pro: Experienced elected official and would not have to give up his seat to run. Wonky. Seems fairly competent.

Con: Would be seen a liberal. And urban. All that and his reduce-the-state-to-13-counties plan would be stir up rural fear. Also majorly on the outs with the state party and recently told KC Star: “The party insiders just can’t get their stuff together,” Steineger said. “I lay it on them. They’re dysfunctional. I think it’s directly their fault that we’re in this situation.” Not helpful.

Interesting profile: http://cjonline.com/opinion/20…

I’m sure we can throw out some more names, no? There’s 50-ish Democrats who are State Reps, what about any of them?  

What about Jill Docking? Rematches are always fun, right? I probably forgot someone obvious, too so help me out….  

And now it’s time to throw out some unexpected names. Kansas SSPers, please brainstorm with me. Let’s get crazy.

Kansas Democrats are on their way to presenting the strongest slate of candidates in years with respected businessman Tom Wiggans‘ announcement that he will run for Governor. Wiggans, a native Kansan, will run against career politician, and well known right-wing Republican, Sam Brownback.

From his bio:

Tom Wiggans is committed to applying his vast business experience to Kansas state government as our next Governor. By utilizing his common sense business practices to bring people together and solve problems, Tom will work with both Democrats and Republicans to pull our state out of the economic recession, ensure we have a stable state budget, and create 21st century jobs for our future.

His campaign has also put together a bio video which you can see here.

More about Tom Wiggans and his campaign below the fold.

Tom is exactly what Kansas voters need right now. A successful businessman who isn’t going to let rigid ideology guide his decisions. Our state has been hit hard by these challenging economic times. Tom has the vision and experience to weather the economic storm, create 21st century jobs and improve our schools. If you’d like to learn more, or get involved you can check out his website here.

From his bio, here are some other interesting facts about Tom Wiggans:

Born and raised in Fredonia in Wilson County, Kansas

Tom lives in Olathe, KS with his wife Kathryn and two teenage daughters

Tom is the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Peplin, a bioscience company developing a product for skin cancer and other serious skin diseases

Served as a Page to Representative Clyde Hill

Graduated from the University of Kansas with a Bachelor’s Degree in Pharmacy

Member of the board of Trustees of the University of Kansas Endowment Association

As usual, I will continue to update you on the political scene in Kansas and how you can get involved with the party and campaigns. If you’re interested in helping today, here’s some easy things to do:

Tom’s website launched today and you can get involved by clicking here.

Click here to introduce Tom on Twitter:

Big news: Businessman Tom Wiggans has announced his campaign for Governor. Get involved: bit.ly/3MoU1X (Please RT!)

Click here to introduce Tom on Facebook:

Tell your Facebook friends to get involved with Tom’s campaign for Governor!

Thanks for your continued support.

Full disclosure: I work for the Kansas Democratic Party.

In Kansas, redistricting is controlled by the state legislature, with the Governor having veto power. By far the most likely political scenario is that in 2010,  Republicans will have a huge advantage in the state Senate (currently 31-9) and a big one in the state House (currently 76-49) and likely a new Governor in conservative Republican Sam Brownback (ugh) unless Democrats find a miracle candidate to take him on.

But one-party control has its downsides: namely, a long-running split between the party’s hardcore conservatives and its moderates, who regularly side with Democrats to either make mischief or enact good policy, depending on your point of view. It plays out in the legislature regularly, and in the congressional seats occasionally.

The most recent example is the 2nd District’s Nancy Boyda, a Democrat who knocked out the very conservative Jim Ryun in 2006, 51-47. “Moderate” Lynn Jenkins edged out Ryun in the 2008 Republican primaries and was able to bring enough Republicans back into the fold to defeat Boyda 51-46.

Here’s the thing: If (conservative) Brownback is elected Governor in 2010, the last thing he’ll want to do in 2011-2012 is a pick a fight with legislators over redistricting.  

A Gov. Brownback (ugh) will have his hands full pushing through a conservative agenda over the feisty moderates (whose main base, suburban Johnson County, is going to get quite a few more seats regardless). Moderate Republicans and Democrats share a lot of redistricting aims–they want competitive seats, basically. Make seats too heavily Republican and conservatives will take over, too heavily Democratic…well, that’s not really a possibility in Kansas.

Overall, Kansans do tend to be fairly civic-minded about redistricting and don’t do obvious gerrymanders, using fairly balanced “select committees” of legislators to do the grunt work. Finally, legislators also put maintaining the core of existing districts into the redistricting guidelines for last time, so I’d bet that’s likely to show up again.

The Big First – District One – map color: blue [irony alert!] – The person in this seat basically has a space waiting for them on the Agriculture Committee. And it will be the person who wins the Republican primary for this open seat in 2010. This district is about as red and rural as it gets–and like many rural areas, it’s bleeding population.  

Adds: bits of Geary & Nemaha, all of Riley  

Loses: Pratt, Barber, Waubaunsee, the rest of Greenwood

Old PVI: R+23

New PVI: R+22

District Two – Lynn Jenkins (R) – map color: green – At PVI+9, it’s already the 2nd most Dem district (tells you something about KS right there), but there’s nowhere else to put the rest of liberal Lawrence now that the 3rd district has grown too populous for it. Based on Moore’s 2008 numbers here, that’s a net of about 13,000 votes in the D column flooding the district (with 27000 votes total and a 71-24 split). Jenkins beat Boyda by 13,500 votes in 2008. D’oh.

The only help Republicans can offer is tinkering around the edges–taking out Topeka would be the only way to really affect the composition and that’s out of the question from several standpoints. It’s just unfortunate for the Great White Dope that her district completely surrounds the fastest-growing and bluest one in the state. That said, moderate Republicans should (at least in theory) love this district. They might still be able to edge out an incumbent Democrat (barely), but a conservative could be defeated in a general election.

Adds: the rest of Douglas County (net 13000 D), Wabaunsee (net 1300 R), Montgomery (net 5000 R)

Loses: Riley (net 1000 R), Coffey (net 1400 R), Woodson (net 500 R), Wilson (net 1300 R)

Old PVI: R+9

New PVI: R+5

District Three – Dennis Moore (D) – map color: purple – Even if Republicans wanted to get rid of the delegation’s sole Democrat, it would be nearly impossible. To do it, you’d have to move out both Douglas & Wyandotte counties and then tack on a dozen or so rural ones. Not really a “community of interests” between the state’s richest, most populous suburban county and slew of relatively poor rural counties.

So instead, the district drops the rest of Douglas and picks up a few sparsely-populated (for now) bits of Miami County. It’s enough to shift the PVI needle a few clicks to the right, but not enough to dislodge Moore, who won Johnson County 51-45 and Wyandotte 75-21. Still, a moderate Republican could definitely pick up this seat if the 63-year-old Moore retires. Then again, so could a Democrat.

Old PVI: R+3

New PVI: R+5

District Four – map color: red – Centered on the slow-growing Wichita metro area, the Fightin’ Fourth has to add a few rural counties and becomes a bit redder. Even if state Rep. Raj Goyle can pull off an upset in 2010 in the open seat race here, he’ll be even harder-pressed to win here after redistricting.

Adds: Coffey, Woodson, Wilson, Pratt, Barber

Loses: Montgomery

Old PVI: R+14

New PVI: R+15

Final score: Two seats that a moderate Republican or Democrat could possibly win, and two seats they almost certainly couldn’t.  

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)

Tiahrt (R) 37

Sebelius (D) 47

Moran (R) 36

Sebelius (D) 48

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Contradicting that earlier GOP primary poll Tiahrt leads Moran 24-19.

“Yet here we have Gov. Kathleen Sebelius coming in with a solid 56-37 approval rating, including a surprisingly good 42-54 among Republicans, which is important given that Republicans make up half the state’s voters. In the head-to-head matchups, Sebelius, gets about a third of those voters. Independents, another quarter of the voter pool, like her at a 63-27 clip. If those numbers held up, she’d make history by having a Democrat represent Kansas in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1939.”

Run Kathleen, run!

(Cross-posted from Kansas Jackass

Two bits of news out of the Republican Primary for the United States Senate seat Sam Brownback is vacating in 2010.

First, Congressman Todd Tiahrt announced the formation of his campaign steering committee.  It includes such Republican notables as State Representatives Kasha Kelly, Lance Kinzer, and Peggy Mast, along with former Speaker of the Kansas House Doug Mays, and Sharon Meissner, who we surmise is the wife of twice-failed Kansas State Board of Education candidate Dr. Robert Meissner.

Lovely, right?  I do appreciate they sent the press release directly to the blog, though.

In the news that actually matters, the Washington Post is today reporting a poll commissioned for the campaign of Congressman Jerry Moran includes much better news for him than it does good ol’ Todder.

Rep. Jerry Moran starts as the frontrunner for the GOP Senate nod in Kansas, according to new polling done for his campaign. Moran, who has held the massive central-western 1st district since 1996, holds a 41 percent to 25 percent edge over fellow Rep. Todd Tiahrt in a poll conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies.

“While it is still very early in the primary campaign, it is currently a lot better to be Jerry Moran than it is to be Todd Tiahrt,” Bolger wrote in the polling memo.

I’m sure people will read that and scream, “But it was a internal poll, so it’s just bullshit.”  While I’m sure campaign-released polls always only include selective information (like, for instance, we bet Moran isn’t telling anyone who he matches up against Gov. Kathleen Sebelius…), just because it’s an internal poll doesn’t immediately make it invalid.  A polling firm won’t get much work if their poll are routinely proven wrong in the press.

So, there you go- while Tiahrt’s busy naming his committee, Moran’s busy winning the election.  Long way ’til August 2010, but the pollster is right- I’d much rather be Jerry Moran today.

(Cross posed from Kansas Jackass)

With radical right-winger Todd Tiahrt not running for re-election to the Kansas 4th District seat in Congress in favor of a bid for the United States Senate(probably), we’ve got another open congressional seat on our hands in Kansas.

We already talked about who the Republicans might decide to put up, with Susan Wagle, Matt Schlapp and his Mom Sue, and Derek Schmidt all seeming to be likely candidates.

Now we turn to the Democratic side.

Just like our previous lists for Governor and the United State Senate, these are folks I think could potentially make a respectable run at the office in discussion, and they certainly do vary in likelihood and viability.

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer certainly does have the name recognition to run, though we aren’t sure how the non-Wichita parts of the KS-04 would react to him.  State Representative Jim Ward and Board of Regents member and 1996 Senate candidate Jill Docking are also both candidate who could certainly raise the cash and create the organization needed to win.

In my eyes, after Docking, we’ve got quite a jump in the likelihood these folks might consider running.

Former State Senator Don Betts ran in 2008 and got smashed by Tiahrt.  While Betts certainly might do better when the seat is open, I’m afraid his political future has been dashed in some pretty cold water.  State Rep. Melody McCray-Miller is a long shot, but, again, could put together the campaign needed to win a seat.

Here’s two way, way, way wild cards:  Former Congressman Dan Glickman and Vice Chairwoman of the Kansas Democratic Party Teresa Krusor.  Both these politicos could certainly raise oodles of cash through connections in Kansas and nationwide.  Also, we know Glickman can run and win in the area- he did represent Wichita for a hundred thousand years in Congress before Tiahrt swept in in the ’90’s.

These are just initial thoughts, again, it’s a long way to 2010, but I think each of these people could run against anyone and win.

And, by-the-by, our money’s on Goyle.

Cross posted from KansasJackass.com

With the news Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson will not be running for Governor of Kansas in 2010, all of the political hacks of the state looked at each other and said, “OK, if not Parkinson, who’s going to run as the Democratic nominee?”

Speculation fell immediately at the feet of former Minority Leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and current state Treasurer Dennis McKinney.

While McKinney does seem to fit the bill as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, let’s assume for a moment he decides to run for the office he now holds, state treasurer, in 2010, rather than launching a run for Governor. Who else might the Democrats nominate?

The Kansas Republican Party Executive Director Christian Morgan said dismissively:

Who do they have that’s going to step up?” said Christian Morgan, the Kansas GOP’s executive director. “I think they have an incredibly short bench.”

It’s not the length of your bench that matters, Chris- it’s how you use it.  One would have thought you’d know that as well as anyone.

It’s true we don’t have the problem the Republicans have- that so many of our elected officials think they’re good enough, smart enough, and that, doggone it, people like them that the Republicans always end up with primaries that involve knees to the groin and pulled hair, the Kansas Democratic Party has talent that has governed efficiently at every level- the hallmark of a person who could lead our state.  Household names they might not all be, but we’re guessing “Sandy Praeger” wasn’t, either, before she was elected Insurance Commissioner.

On my short list of potential Democratic candidates for Governor, we have two mayors:  Joe Reardon of the KCK-Wyandotte County Consolidated Government and Carl Brewer of Wichita.  Hailing from the largest population centers of the state & the economic engines thereof, these two men are already executives with many of the same responsibilities as found in the governor’s office, just on a smaller scale.  Actually crafting a budget and implementing policies that effect the economy in very direct ways are both things Senator Sam Brownback can’t claim he’s ever done, and would make both men excellent candidates for Governor.

Jill Docking is always mentioned as a potential candidate for statewide office because she came so dang close to trouncing Brownback when he first ran for the United States Senate in 1996.  While she hasn’t sought elective office since that bid more than a decade ago, Docking has stayed active in politics and currently sits on the Kansas Board of Regents- so she has first hand knowledge of the budget disaster the state faces- again, something Senator Sammy just doesn’t have.

Securities Commissioner Chris Biggs might decide to make a run at the Governor’s mansion- he’s another person, like Docking, who has run statewide and only lost very narrowly.

Either of the big-name District Attorneys in Kansas would be excellent candidates- Nola Foulston from Wichita or Charles Branson from Lawrence.  A little dash of hard and fast law-and-order can’t hurt.  And, again, you’ve got that whole administrative experience thing that comes in awfully handy.  It’s also encouraging both of them just got re-elected in landslides.

Congressman Dennis Moore could certainly, certainly run and win- but he’s already told us he’s running for re-election, so we’re pretending he’s not available right now. Same goes for Attorney General Steve Six– he’d better be running for his spot in ’10.

State Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, former Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, State Senator Laura Kelly or Kansas Democratic Party Chairman Larry Gates could certainly all raise the money necessary to make a competitive bid, as could State Senator Janis Lee or former State Senator Christine Downey.

Ready for some real wild cards?  How about Secretary of Social and Rehabilitation Services Don Jordan or Secretary of Agriculture Adrian Polansky, or Roger Werholtz from the Department of Corrections?  Before you laugh those folk off the playing field, remember what Sam Browback was before he ran for Congress….yes, that’s right, just a lowly Secretary of Agriculture.

So, there, a bench.  It’s obvious some of those folk are more likely than others to even consider a run, but each one of them could run for Governor and win the seat against Brownback or Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh or Insurance Commissioner Praeger or whoever else might decide to jump in on the Republican side.

What’s our power ranking?  McKinney’s out front, followed by Mayors Reardon and Brewer with Docking, Biggs, and the DA’s next.  That is about as tenuous a “ranking” as there as even been, seeing as none of the people involved have even said they might be interested in running.

Just remember this:  2010 is still a long way off, friends.

As her Republican opponent files the biggest single quarter fundraising report from a Kansas congressional candidate in the state’s history, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda (D-KS) actually finds herself increasingly more secure in her first re-election bid.

Even with a $681,000 quarter and running in a district that went to George W. Bush by double digits, Republican Kansas State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins woke up today to not only still find herself behind in cash-on-hand, but she also had to read that The Cook Political Report had moved the race in the Kansas 2nd out of the “Toss Up” column and into “Leans Democratic.”  

The question is: Why?

For those of us on the ground, it’s easy to see the answer to that question.

Over the course of the last 2 years, Boyda has been an able representative- never quite liberal enough for the liberals, and never quite conservative enough for the conservatives.  Instead she has been a very traditional Kansas Democrat, bucking the party when it doesn’t represent her district’s interests.  While that hasn’t always made her popular with lots different interest groups, it has left her quite popular and well-regarded back at home.

Also, the simple fact the folk back at home have seen so much of Boyda has made a massive difference in the way she’s perceived in district.  Boyda has held hundreds of public meetings, has been home nearly every single weekend (save the few she spent in Iraq and Afghanistan- including Christmas 2007), and her constituent services office has been open and accessible, potentially the very best in Kansas.

While those things certainly have insulated Boyda, in at least some regard, to the ceaseless partisan attacks she’s been bludgeoned with for two years, simply coming home a lot and being available only goes so far for a Democrat in an R+7 district.  Why, then, is a Republican like Jenkins having such a hard time gaining traction in this previously reliably Republican district- and why has The Cook Political Report moved this race out of the toss up category this late in the game?

All you need to do is open a district newspaper to find out.

Over the course of the last two weeks, Lynn Jenkins has been hit by two revelations that went straight to the core of her candidacy (the fact that, as a CPA and a competent state treasurer, she could better manage the fiscal house of the United States than Boyda) and have totally derailed her bid.

First: While campaigning against former Congressman Jim Ryun in the Republican primary, Jenkins skipped every single monthly meeting of the Kansas Public Employee Retirement System Board of Trustees- while that fund, which provides for the pensions of every state employee and school teacher in Kansas, lost more than $1 billion.

Missing board meetings certainly isn’t a sexy scandal, but it resonated in the district, if only because Jenkins had been hitting Boyda hard for months for Boyda’s infamous 10-minute “walkout” on Ret. Gen. Jack Keane from a 2007 Armed Services Committee meeting, with Jenkins saying Boyda wasn’t doing her job because she left the room.  Unfortunately for Jenkins, when the voters compared the two it was all too obvious who actually wasn’t doing their job and who’s lax attention to their duties had actually harmed the people of Kansas.

Jenkins dug herself deeper when she wouldn’t explain where she had been instead of at the meetings, only to state she was “busy” and that she has “a lot of balls in the air” at the current time.  Oh, also, Jenkins said she was never actually out of contact with the board, and that she communicated with everyone via email.  But, in the very same newspaper piece she was quoted saying that, the Executive Director of KPERS said:

(KPERS executive director Glenn Deck) said he hadn’t received any e-mails or phone calls from Jenkins recently and said he wasn’t aware of others receiving contact either.

“I don’t think so because I think I would be copied,” Deck said.

He also said he wasn’t aware of feedback Jenkins has provided to the board while she was away.

Ouch.

It got worse for Jenkins October 16 when the Topeka Capital-Journal ran a story revealing that, during her terms as state treasurer, the state of Kansas misallocated upwards of $15 million in motor fuel taxes in the way payments were made out to Kansas counties.  The accounting error that led to the mismanagement of funds wasn’t the fault of the Jenkins administration, and her staff did indeed find the flaw after using the wrong formula for six years.

But our story gets better.  So, for six years Lynn Jenkins either overpaid or shortchanged Kansas counties- millions of dollars potentially mismanaged.  After her staff discovered the error, she dashed off a letter to the governor’s office alerting her and then Lynn…did nothing…for two months.  Not a single word to any counties to let them know they might be asked to repay thousands back to the state in their next fiscal year- nor notification that they may be receiving extra cash, either.  By the time she got around to telling the counties what had happened, 2009 fiscal year budgets were already set and we can promise you not one county in Kansas budgeted an extra $150,000 just in case Lynn Jenkins screwed up.  If Jenkins had moved appropriately, counties might have been able to adjust to repay the state (or, of course, absorb new funds), but she didn’t.  

One last bit: Still to this day the treasurer’s office has not produced a spreadsheet showing where overpayments and underpayments have occured, so Kansas counties still have no idea what they might owe.  

Eventually someone’s going to have to pay for Lynn Jenkins’ mismanagement, and, sadly, it’s going to be the taxpayers of Kansas.

Lynn Jenkins’ star was near particularly bright- generally, the people of the Kansas 2nd seem happy with Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.  But, over the course of the last two weeks, Jenkins’ task ahead became much, much more difficult- all because she’s really not good at the job she already has.  When you’re running a campaign based solely on the fact you’re really competent and that you’ll be able to “clean up Washington,” nothing is more damaging that it being revealed that you’re really, really just not competent.

Boyda’s reelection certainly won’t be a blow out, and Jenkins has already tried her best to distort Boyda’s record in an effort to make her own record problems go away, but, for those of you wondering why The Cook Political Report had decided this race was a little less close than it was a couple of weeks ago, we hope this provides a little local perspective.