Tag: Governor

Rasmussen is showing some good news for Democrats in North Carolina – both Richard Moore and Beverly Purdue are leading Republican Pat McCrory by 4-5%.

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Richard Moore (D)	39%
Pat McCrory (R)	34%

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Beverly Perdue (D)	42%
Pat McCrory (R)	38%

This shows improvement over December’s poll:

In December, McCrory on top in both match-ups by an identical 42% to 39% margin. That survey was conducted prior to McCrory’s official announcement to run in the election.

Anyone here know how reapportionment works in North Carolina? If we maintain our hold on the Governor’s mansion and the state legislature, can we squeeze an advantage here after the 2010 Census?

Missouri’s most endangered Republican, Governor Matt Blunt just got served!

A lawsuit that is, by Scott Eckersley, his former deputy legal counsel, who is suing Blunt and four current and former aides.

From the Kansas CIty Star:

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. | Gov. Matt Blunt ducked questions Thursday about a lawsuit alleging his office intentionally deleted e-mails in violation of open-records laws but defended the firing of the former staff attorney who sued him. A whistleblower and defamation lawsuit filed Wednesday by former Blunt attorney Scott Eckersley claims that top Blunt aides directed staff in his office and other agencies to destroy e-mails to avoid providing information sought under public records requests.

The real question is, “What are they trying to hide?” Looks like the deletions are just the tip of the iceberg!

Here’s Blunt’s approval numbers: 46% approve, 48% disapprove. The crosstabs show 36% of the sample were Democrats, 29% Republicans, and 28% Independents. If that’s how party affiliation is lining up in Missouri, we’re in very good shape.

Democratic AG Jay Nixon is running strong – last I heard he was up 51% to 42%. I’m betting we can paint this one as “Democrat Favored”.

(From the diaries. Share your thoughts on Mississippi’s 2007 elections here. – promoted by James L.)

Louisiana has had their jungle primary and Democrats held on to the both chambers of the state legislature, the Lieutenant Governorship, and are heading into run offs for Agriculture Commissioner and Attorney General. Before these runoffs are held, Kentucky and Mississippi will have similar statewide elections on November 6. Additionally, New Jersey and Virginia will be electing large portions of their state legislatures. Going into these elections, I’d like us to have an opportunity to focus on these somewhat overlooked 2007 elections. Before going forward, I will admit that I am not an expert on any of these states and these threads are mostly here for feedback from the forum users. Today, I’ll focus on Mississippi.

Mississippi will be voting for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture and Commerce Commissioner, and Insurance Commissioner. Additionally the state legislature is up. Here’s a brief on each office.

Governor
Haley Barbour, former tobacco lobbyist, is seeking re-election as the Republican nominee. Barbour beat out incumbent Democrat, Ronnie Musgrove in 2003. Since then he has been received positively by the state, mostly due to what was seen as strong reaction to Hurricane Katrina (no doubt reinforced by Louisiana’s poor reaction). The Democrats have nominated John Arthur Eaves Jr. who, from what I have heard, has run hard on religion and performed well in debates while Barbour has appeared listless. Expect Barbour to win, but his margin of victory to be closer than expected.

Lieutenant Governor
Due to term limits, Republican Amy Tuck will not be seeking re-election. The Republicans have nominated 3 term State Auditor Phil Bryant. The Democrat is State Rep. Jaime Franks. Both candidates look to be highly engaged in this race. I have no idea who is favored, but I’d guess Bryant because he has been elected statewide before.

Secretary of State
Incumbent Democrat Eric Clark is retiring. Democrats have nominated Former State Senator Rob Smith. The Republicans have put forward Redstate favorite Delbert Hosemann who will keep those “dirty illegals” from voting. Delbert’s campaign looks much more engaged compared to Smith whose campaign looks nonexistent. Expect the Republicans to gain this one.

Attorney General
Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood is seeking re-election. The Republican candidate is Attorney Al Hopkins. Both sides appear engaged and Hopkins looks like he’s bringing abortion into the election. Both sides also look like they are getting REAL dirty as well. This one may be close, but I’d guess a Hood re-election is in store.

State Auditor
Phi Bryant is the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, so it is an open seat race. Cousin to Congressman Chip, State Sen. Stacey Pickering is the Republican nominee. The Democrats have nominated Forrest County Adminstrator Mike Sumrall. This one looks like it has gotten away from us and will stay with the Republicans.

Treasurer
Republican Tate Reeves is seeking re-election and the Democrats have frequent candidate Shawn O’Hara. This one is staying theirs.

Agriculture and Commerce
Republican Lester Spell is seeking re-election. Former Democratic State Chair Rickey Cole is our guy. This is the only race where the Democrat seems more engaged than the Republican. If we upset any race this is it, but the Republican is still favored. A candidate from the Constitution Party may make the difference for us.

Insurance Commissioner
DFA endorsed and ex-state fiscal officer Gary Anderson defeated incumbent Democrat George Dale in the primary, so this can be considered an open seat race. The Republicans have nominated Mike Chaney. Anderson looks a bit more engaged, but, and I REALLY hate to say this, expect race may be a factor and we may lose it on that alone, issues be damned! I’d say this leans Republican, but we still have chance.

State Senate
A pair of Democrats defected earlier this year and gave control of the legislature to the Republicans. The current Composition is 27 Republicans-25 Democrats. I expect the Republicans may have some coattails from many of their top of the ballot races and gain a tad to expand their majorities.

State House
The DLCC website states the Mississippi State House has a 74-48 Democratic majority. Expect our majroity to shrink due to coattails, but Democrats to stay in command.

Summary
Republicans will keep the statewide seats they already have, however the race for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may be closer than we could have previously hoped for. The Agriculture Commissioner may flip Democratic, however it is unlikely Democrats can also expect to lose the Secretary of State. Our bright side appears that, while it will be close, we should hold onto the Attorney General, barely, and the State House. While Insurance Commissioner will probably flip Republican, we do have fighting chance of holding it.

Please, comment, and tell me your thoughts on Mississippi. I’ll have more of these up before Nov 6 on New Jersey, Virginia, and Kentucky.

On a complete side note, I am looking forward to Friday when I can get Mac OS X.5 Leopard so I can get bloody spell check build into Safari, so until then, please forgive the spelling typos where they are.

Few people are paying attention to the 14 gubernatorial races that will be decided in the next 15 months (3 are happening this fall, and the 11 remaining are set for 2008). Yet, these contests will play a major role in deciding who holds control of Congress in the next decade: The governors who will be elected in those 14 states will hold control of redistricting after the next census, and each party wants to be ready for maximal gerrymandering in 2011.

With that in mind, let’s rank these races, from the most vulnerable to turnover to the one where the incumbent party feels the safest. It immediately appears that very few of these races are likely to be contested at all, especially the ones that will be decided in 2008. Democrats and Republicans will swap Louisiana and Kentucky this fall, and then fight in only  two-three states next year. A stark contrast to the 2006 cycle.

The first 3 races are listed after the jump. The full rankings and detailed descriptions of all 14 races is available here, on CampaignDiaries.com

• Likely Takeover

1. Kentucky (Gov. Fletcher)
The first of the 2007 races. Fletcher has been facing huge allegations of misconduct and has even been indicted. This pushed Anne Northup, a congresswoman defeated in 2006, to challenge him in the primary last spring, but Fletcher inexplicably survived. He is now almost assured of going down in this November’s election against Democrat Steve Beshear, who has led every opinion poll by an average 20%. Democrats are now running ads using Northup’s words against Fletcher. Count on Fletcher losing his executive immunity in less than two months.

2. Louisiana (Open)
The second of the 2007 races. Republican Bobby Jindal almost became Governor in 2003 but came short against Blanco, who chose earlier this year to not run for re-election given her low approval ratings post-Katrina. Jindal became a House member in 2004, and he now looks unstoppable. Louisiana has no primary system, and the first round will take place in late October. Democrats have fielded weak candidates, and their only hope is to hold Jindal under 50% to force him into a one-on-one runoff in early December, but they would have little chance even then. Louisiana is rapidly drifting Republican.

• Toss-up

3. Missouri (Gov. Blunt)
Blunt barely won his first term in 2004 against Democrat McKaskill, who since then became Senator. The 2008 campaign started almost immediately, as it became clear that AG Nixon intended to take Blunt on. The race has been nasty for months already. Given Nixon’s statewide recognition and Blunt’s unpopularity, Nixon might have the slightest of edges.

The rest of the rankings, and detailed descriptions of all 14 races, available here, on CampaignDiaries.com

As we wait for former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) to reveal his plans for the open Senate seat left behind by retiring Republican John Warner, I thought it might be useful to take a look at the track record of Governors who ran for the Senate during the last 10 Congressional elections.  By my count, there have been 24 Governors (sitting, retiring, or former) who ran for Senate seats between 1986 and 2006.  15 of them were victorious.  Here’s the full list (italics denote a challenge to an incumbent; all other races were open seats):

2004

Alaska: Tony Knowles (D), lost by 3%

2002

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaeen (D), lost by 4%

Oklahoma: David Walters (D), lost by 21%

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R), won by 10%

2000

Delaware: Tom Carper (D), won by 12%

Missouri: Mel Carnahan (D), won by 2%

Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D), won by 2%

Virginia: George Allen (R), won by 4%

1998

Indiana: Evan Bayh (D), won by 29%

Ohio: George Voinovich (R), won by 12%

1996

Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D), lost by 14%

Maine: Joe Brennan (D), lost by 6%

Massachusetts: William Weld (R), lost by 7%

1994

Missouri: John Ashcroft (R), won by 24%

Wyoming: Mike Sullivan (D), lost by 30%

1992

New Hampshire: Judd Gregg (R), won by 3%

1990
(none)

1988

Nebraska: Bob Kerrey (D), won by 15%

Nevada: Richard Bryan (D), won by 4%

Virginia: Chuck Robb (D), won by 42%

1986

Florida: Bob Graham (D), won by 10%

Idaho: John Evans (D), lost by 3%

Missouri: Kit Bond (R), won by 5%

North Carolina: Terry Sanford (D), won by 4%

Vermont: Richard Snelling (R), lost by 29%

There was actually a 25th Governor that I did not include: former Massachusetts Governor Endicott Peabody (D), who served for one two-year term in the mid-1960s.  Two decades later, he moved to New Hampshire and ran for Senate against Republican incumbent Warren Rudman, losing by a wide 32% margin.  But I’m only going to count Governors who ran for the Senate seat of the same state.

Overall, Governors have had a 63% success rate in Senate races over the past 10 cycles, and a similar rate in open seat races.  Interestingly, over two-thirds of these Governors with Senatorial ambitions have been Democrats.

Did I miss anyone?

(First off, I'd like to thank DavidNYC for asking me to join the Swing State Project team. While the South and its unique brand of politics is my area of greatest familiarity, I'll try not to focus too much on races from below the Mason-Dixon. In any case, I'm looking forward to writing here at SSP and contributing to the electoral analysis and discussion that the site's known for.)

Over the past few months, conventional wisdom has been that Republican “Bobby” Jindal is an inevitability in his campaign for governor of Louisiana. While that opinion's been reinforced by a few polls, there's also plenty of evidence and polling with which to argue the contrary. 

Being the front-runner certainly carries its benefits for Jindal, but it also means that he'll be the guy with a big bullseye on his back throughout the campaign. Over the next two months, Jindal's opponents will unload their campaign warchests in a concentrated effort to dampen his support and lower his numbers.

Independently wealthy Democratic State Senator Walter Boasso has been airing ads for over a month with some success. In his ads, Boasso slams Jindal's paper-thin record and highlights Jindal's close ties with the Bush administration. But Jindal is also facing trouble from his right, as wealthy GOP businessman John Georges has $7 million COH with which he plans to argue he is the “true conservative” in the race.  In addition, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell has over $1 million in his account. To top it all off, the Louisiana Democratic Party has commenced a major ad buy tarring Jindal.

And of course, the scandal involving Sen. David Vitter's patronage of prostitutes has tarnished the image of the state GOP. To make matters worse for Jindal, he's taking flak from both sides on this issue. Many are upset with Jindal for not calling for Vitter's resignation, while conservatives like Georges are accusing Jindal of “abandoning” Vitter.

Considering that this race is just now heating up although Jindal's been considered an heir-apparent by the media for months, Democrats should take heart from a recent poll commissioned by Georges. In the poll conducted in late July, only 38% of Louisianans said they're planning to vote for Jindal. And the way I see it, he's got nowhere to go but down from there.

This race is far from over. For local updates, keep an eye on the Daily Kingfish.

http://blog.nola.com/times-picayune/2007/08/jindal_leads_comfortably_in_la.html

Southern Media & Opinion Research poll, conducted August 3rd-6th asked 600 likely voters, MoE +/- 4.0%

Jindal (R): 63%
Boasso (D): 14%
Campbell (D): 4%
Georges (R): 1%

SMOR also asked about the Governor's race if New Orleans Ray Nagin (D) were on the ballot:

Southern Media & Opinion Research poll, conducted August 3rd-6th asked 600 likely voters, MoE +/- 4.0%

Jindal (R): 60%
Nagin (D): 10%
Boasso (D): 10%
Campbell (D): 3%
Georges (R): 1%

Southern Media & Opinion Research did two polls in March in preperation for a potential bid by either current Governor Blanco or former Senator John Breaux, and showed Jindal ahead of them, earning 59% and 56%, respectively. Without either of those two top-tier Democratic challengers, its not surprising to see Jindal polling above 60% in their polling.

This polling also paints a different picture than Anzalone Liszt Research polling did in between the two sets of SMOR polls, which showed Jindal's share dropping from 62% to 52% in the same period of time that State Sen. Walter Boasso (D) started running television ads statewide. While two polls is not enough to paint a trendline (though it didn't stop people from trying anyways), it did show Jindal vulnerable to not winning outright in the October jungle primary, whereas this new poll doesn't reflect the same picture.

There are a few reasons why this may be the case. First, speaking technically, different polling outfits use different methodologies, which usually count for discrepancies between them. There is no reliable way to determine which is more accurate until after the election. Anzalone could run a poll next week and find Jindal at 35%, and it wouldn't make either of their polls any more or less reliable. Because of the different methodologies, it is also difficult to make a straight-cut comparison between the two. For instance, you cannot say that Jindal rose ten points between this poll and the most recent Anzalone poll.

Another reason may be that Jindal has started to run statewide TV ads now. TV ads were the primary impetus behind Boasso's rise in the polls, so it stands to reason that the same would happen with Jindal.

Whatever the case, this poll clearly stands in the way of the train of thought that Jindal is not the heavy favorite to win in 2007. Don't get me wrong, this poll is not infallible, and anything can happen, especially in Louisiana politics. The purpose of this poll, and this diary, is not to say one way or another what will happen, but only to give a platform from which people judge what needs to happen. In order for Jindal to lose, someone needs to take a lot of support away from him. According to SMOR, that person doesn't appear to be Walter Boasso or Ray Nagin, and whoever that person may be will have their work cut out for them.

This puts a smile on my face.

In Kentucky’s Republican gubernatorial primary next week, “although the No. 3 candidate claims his internal polls show former Rep. Anne Northup (R-Ky.) pulling ahead, it appears more likely that she can, at best, force a runoff against troubled incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R),” according to the Evans-Novak Political Report. “Even that appears unlikely at this point. One poll shows Fletcher 10 points ahead and well above the 40 percent threshold at which he avoids a runoff.”

Meanwhile, “on the Democratic side, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear is clearly the man to beat at this point. The most likely outcome of next Tuesday’s primary is a runoff between him and Bruce Lunsford. Beshear has benefited from the departure of state Treasurer Jonathan Miller (D) from the race — Miller endorsed Beshear as he exited. In debates, Beshear was everyone’s target, a sign that all of the campaigns recognize his late frontrunner status. Leaning Beshear.”

It looks like that, in the Buegrass State, our best-case scenario is about to come true. Let’s hope so.

If there is any truth to this, then the Louisiana Democratic Party is more screwed than I previously thought.

Gov. Kathleen Blanco would not deny she is considering re-entering the governor’s race when questioned by TV reporters Thursday at the Governor’s Mansion.

“This is Louisiana and lots of exciting things can happen between now and the election,” Blanco said when asked if she was reconsidering.

Marie Centanni, Blanco’s spokeswoman, said later, “The governor is certainly enjoying her current status and she expects it to stay the same.”

We don’t need this. If you’re in, you’re in, if you drop out, you should stay out for the good of the party. Perhaps she is exacting some kind of revenge on the party for pushing her out. Regardless, someone needs to straighten her out.

Many of you already know the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s held a hearing today entitled “Allegations of Misconduct at the General Services Administration.”  One of the allegations explored by the committee was the misuse of GSA funds and resources for political purposes, and the document on which this allegation is based is a Power Point presentation delivered by Karl Rove’s aide Scott Jennings.  The presentation, delivered 26 January 2007, is the official 2007 and 2008 strategy of the White House Office of Political Affairs.  Included therein are graphs and charts pertaining to district PVI, Presidential party performance in midterm elections, overall Presidential party performance during a particular President’s term, House seat statistics, including PVI, party affiliation in recent elections, partisan identification trends, data on the Republicans’ 72 hour program, voter registration data, turnout data, case studies on the success of the 72 hour program and lists of vulnerable House, Senate and gubernatorial seats.  While some of this information is presented in a skewed manner, some of this data is very useful.

Top 20 House Seats Republicans Will Target
order of importance

1 TX-22 (LAMPSON)
2 FL-16 (MAHONEY)
3 CA-11 (McNERNEY)
4 OH-18 (SPACE)
5 IN-09 (HILL)
6 PA-10 (CARNEY)
7 PA-08 (MURPHY)
8 KS-02 (BOYDA)
9 PA-07 (SESTAK)
10 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH)
11 NC-11 (SHULER)
12 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ)
13 WI-08 (KAGEN)
14 GA-08 (MARSHALL)
15 IN-02 (DONNELLY)
16 GA-12 (BARROW)
17 PA-04 (ALTMIRE)
18 NY-19 (HALL)
19 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND)
20 SD-AL (HERSETH)

HOUSE GOP “PRIORITY DEFENSE”
order of importance
1 PA-06 (GERLACH)
2 FL-13 (BUCHANAN)
3 NC-08 (HAYES)
4 NM-01 (WILSON)
5 CO-04 (MUSGRAVE)
6 IL-06 (ROSKAM)
7 CT-04 (SHAYS)
8 OH-02 (SCHMIDT)
9 VA-02 (DRAKE)
10 WY-AL (CUBIN) – indicates she may retire
11 CA-04 (DOOLITTLE)
12 NV-03 (PORTER)
13 NY-25 (WALSH)
14 OH-15 (PRYCE)
15 NY-29 (KUHL)
16 NJ-07 (FERGUSON)
17 MI-09 (KNOLLENBERG) – indicates he may retire

HOUSE GOP “SECONDARY DEFENSE”
seats are listed in alphabetical order
AK-AL (YOUNG) – indicates he may retire
CA-24 (GALLEGLY) – indicates he may retire
CA-25 (McKEON) – indicates he may retire
CA-41 (LEWIS) – indicates he may retire
CA-42 (MILLER)
CA-52 (HUNTER) – indicates he may retire
DE-AL (CASTLE) – indicates he may retire
FL-10 (YOUNG) – indicates he may retire
IL-10 (KIRK)
IL-14 (HASTERT) – indicates he may retire
KY-02 (LEWIS)
LA-01 (JINDAL) – indicates he may retire
MD-06 (BARTLETT) – indicates he may retire
MI-03 (EHLERS) – indicates he may retire
MI-07 (WALBERG)
NC-09 (MYRICK) – indicates she may retire
OH-16 (REGULA) – indicates he may retire
PA-15 (DENT)
VA-11 (DAVIS) – indicates he may retire

GOP SENATE OFFENSE
in no particular order, as a map illustrates the strategy
MT-SEN (BAUCUS)
SD-SEN (JOHNSON)
IA-SEN (HARKIN)
AR-SEN (PRYOR)
LA-SEN (LANDRIEU)
NJ-SEN (LAUTENBERG)

GOP SENATE DEFENSE
in no particular order, as map illustrates the strategy
OR-SEN (SMITH)
CO-SEN (OPEN)
NM-SEN (DOMENICI)
MN-SEN (COLEMAN)
MS-SEN (COCHRAN)
ME-SEN (COLLINS)
NH-SEN (SUNUNU)
VA-SEN (WARNER)

Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are considered noncompetitive

GOP OFFENSE – GUBERNATORIAL RACES
in no particular order, as strategy is illustrated with a map
WA-GOV (GREGOIRE)
MT-GOV (SCHWEITZER)
NC-GOV (OPEN)
LA-GOV (BLANCO) – they note this is a 2007 race

GOP DENFENSE – GUBERNATORIAL RACES
in no particular order, as strategy is illustrated with a map
MO-GOV (BLUNT)
IN-GOV (DANIELS)
VT-GOV (DOUGLAS)
MS-GOV (BARBOUR) – they note this is a 2007 race
KY-GOV (FLETCHER) – they note this is a 2007 race

Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Delaware and New Hampshire are not considered competitive

Although some of this information is dated, I do find it very useful.  How do you view this document?