Bonus: UT also tested a wide range of down-ballot races.
Margins & Errors: The DSCC supposedly has some internal with Alexi Giannoulias up 2 in IL-Sen, but this is some NRCC-style crap with no details other than the toplines… Some MI-Gov poll shows that the race still sucks… Frank Guinta is touting an internal in NH-01 that supposedly has him up 53-37, but there isn’t even word of the pollster’s name
AR-02: OnMessage for Tim Griffin (10/13-14, likely voters, 6/13-14 in parens):
Joyce Elliott (D): 40 (34)
Tim Griffin (R): 52 (50)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
GA-02, GA-08: Landmark Communications (R) (10/19, likely voters):
Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 45
Mike Keown (R): 47Jim Marshall (D-inc): 35
Austin Scott (R): 51
(MoE: ±3.5%)
KY-03: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/18-19, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):
John Yarmuth (D-inc): 58 (53)
Todd Lally (R): 31 (30)
Undecided: 3 (12)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Bonus finding: Jack Conway leads Rand Paul by 54-36 in this district, up from 51-39 in the previous Braun poll.
KY-06: Mason-Dixon for the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV (10/15-19, likely voters):
Ben Chandler (D-inc): 48
Andy Barr (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.5%)
LA-02: Zata|3 for local Dems (10/20, likely voters):
Cedric Richmond (D): 53
Joe Cao (R-inc): 36
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.4%)
ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/13-17, likely voters, 10/10-11 in parens):
Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 45 (48)
Dean Scontras (R): 40 (33)Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49 (43)
Jason Levesque (R): 30 (30)
(MoE: ±5.7%)
MI-15: EPIC/MRA (10/16-19, likely voters):
John Dingell (D-inc): 53
Rob Steele (R): 36
(MoE: ±4.9%)
NY-22: Abacus Associates for Maurice Hinchey (10/20-21, likely voters):
Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 51
George Phillips (R): 34
(MoE: ±4.9%)
RI-01: Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC (10/20-21, likely voters):
David Cicilline (D-inc): 41
John Loughlin (R): 41
(MoE: ±5.7%)
TN-08: The Tarrance Group for Stephen Fincher (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):
Roy Herron (D): 35 (36)
Stephen Fincher (R): 50 (47)
Undecided: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±5.8%)
WA-02: SurveyUSA (10/19-21, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):
Rick Larsen (D-inc): 50 (50)
John Koster (R): 46 (47)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Bonus: SUSA also tested the state AG, SoS, and Treasurer races.
Bonus: Ipsos also tested the AG, Ag Comm’r, and CFO races.
Note: The poll apparently asked respondents about “Alex Giannoulias.”
Margins & Errors: On Sunday, Pat Toomey moved out to a 3-point lead in the Muhlenberg tracker, while Tom Corbett is +9… some sketchy details of IN-02 internals from Brian Howey: “Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn said internal polling has shown Walorski chipping a 9-point Donnelly lead to “at the margin of error” around 4 percent.” … CNN sources tell them that Harry Reid’s internals have him up 6 over Sharron Angle in NV-Sen… PPP will have polls out for CA, CO, KY & WV this week
Rather unusually, Suffolk included Blumenthal & Malloy twice in their head-to-head questions: once as the Dem candidate, and once as the Working Families Party candidate. Each got about 3-4% as the WFP candidate. I’ve never seen a pollster do this in New York, where the practice of fusion voting is best known.
Note: Among the 10% who have already voted, Schrader leads 47-46. This continues a pattern we’ve seen in other SUSA polls (and also some, but not all, of the early voting numbers by party registration).
What better way to celebrate SSP’s seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?
AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):
Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)
Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):
Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):
Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)
Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)
Undecided: 20 (20)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):
Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)
Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)
Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)
Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):
David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)
Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)
Undecided: 20 (14)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):
Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)
Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)
Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)
Undecided: 11 (16)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39
Van Tran (R): 39
Ceci Iglesias (I): 5
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5.7%)
FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kendrick Meek (D): 22
Marco Rubio (R): 39
Charlie Crist (I): 31
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.4%)
FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alex Sink (D): 45
Rick Scott (R): 38
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm’r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.
MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35
Charlie Baker (R): 42
Tim Cahill (I): 10
(MoE: ±3.5%)
MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):
William Keating (D): 46
Jeffrey Perry (R): 43
Other: 5
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.9%)
MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):
Virg Bernero (D): 37
Rick Snyder: 50
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±2.1%)
MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):
Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)
Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)
Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)
Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)
Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)
Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)
Undecided: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.
NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads plans to get involved here.
NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 59
Carl Paladino (R): 24
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3%)
OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53
Art Robinson (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.9%)
OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40
Scott Bruun: 44
(MoE: ±5.7%)
PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):
John Callahan (D): 32 (38)
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)
Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)
Undecided: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, “active voters,” 10/7-13 in parens):
Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)
Undecided: 6 (13)
(MoE: ±4%)
Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?
UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter Corroon (D): 27
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4%)
Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.
VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40
Rob Hurt (R): 46
Jeffrey Clark (I): 1
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.1%)
WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):
Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)
Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)
Undecided: 6 (17)
(MoE: ±5%)
Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size… Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll – he has the n, but won’t say the pollster’s name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken… Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 – but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll’s sponsor
All the latest House polls in one place.
IL-09: Magellan for Joel Pollak (10/12, likely voters):
Jan Schakowsky (D-inc): 48
Joel Pollak (R): 30
(MoE: ±3%)
IL-10: We Ask America (10/15, likely voters):
Dan Seals (D): 39
Bob Dold (R): 50
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±2.9%)
ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):
Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 48 (54)
Dean Scontras (R): 33 (36)Mike Michaud (D-inc): 43 (44)
Jason Levesque (R): 30 (32)
(MoE: ±5.7%)
MN-01: SurveyUSA (10/12-14, likely voters):
Tim Walz (D-inc): 47
Randy Demmer (R): 42
Steven Wilson (IP): 4
Lars Johnson (I): 2
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.1%)
MO-05: Pulse/Rasmussen for Jacob Turk (10/5, likely voters):
Emanuel Cleaver (D-inc): 52
Jacob Turk (R): 43
(MoE: ±4%)
NH-01, NH-02: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, September in parens):
Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 36 (39)
Frank Guinta (R): 48 (49)
(MoE: ±5.3%)Ann McLane Kuster (D-inc): 43 (38)
Charlie Bass (R): 36 (43)
(MoE: ±5.1%)
PA-04: Public Opinion Strategies for Keith Rothfus (10/6-7, likely voters):
Jason Altmire (D-inc): 47
Keith Rothfus (R): 36
(MoE: ±5.7%)
PA-07: Franklin & Marshall College (10/5-11, likely voters):
Bryan Lentz (D): 31
Pat Meehan (R): 34
(MoE: ±4.9%)
PA-08: Monmouth University (10/11-13, likely voters):
Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 46
Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 51
(MoE: ±3.9%)
PA-10, PA-11: Critical Insights for the Times Leader (dates unspecified, likely voters):
Chris Carney (D-inc): 38
Tom Marino (R): 44Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41
Lou Barletta (R): 43
(MoE: ±4.9%)
RI-01: Quest (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):
David Cicilline (D): 47 (49)
John Loughlin (R): 36 (26)
Undecided: 13 (25)
(MoE: ±6.2%)
SC-02: Anzalone Liszt Research (10/7-10, likely voters, 5/3-6 in parens):
Rob Miller (D): 39 (34)
Joe Wilson (R-inc): 46 (49)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
TN-04: Public Opinion Strategies for Scott DesJarlais (10/12 & 14, likely voters, 9/27-28 in parens):
Lincoln Davis (D-inc): 40 (42)
Scott DesJarlais (R): 45 (42)
(MoE: ±5.7%)
VA-09: SurveyUSA (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/27-29 in parens):
Rick Boucher (D-inc): 51 (53)
Morgan Griffith (R): 41 (38)
Jeremiah Heaton (I): 4 (5)
Undecided: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4%)
WA-03: SurveyUSA (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):
Denny Heck (D): 42 (43)
Jaime Herrera (R): 53 (52)
Undecided: 6 (4)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
I’m your poll pusher. 19 new ones:
Rodney Glassman (D): 22
John McCain (R-inc): 56
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Chris Coons (D): 54
Christine O’Donnell (R): 33
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±2.1%)
Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):
Chris Coons (D): 57 (55)
Christine O’Donnell (R): 38 (39)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (18)
Marco Rubio (R): 44 (46)
Charlie Crist (I): 30 (33)
(MoE: ±3%)
Susquehanna (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/2-7 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (23)
Marco Rubio (R): 45 (43)
Charlie Crist (I): 29 (29)
(MoE: ±2.9%)
Harry Reid (D-inc): 45
Sharron Angle (R): 43
Scott Ashjian (T): 2
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Joe Sestak (D): 45
Pat Toomey (R): 46
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (53)
Dino Rossi (R): 43 (44)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Russ Feingold (D-inc): 44 (45)
Ron Johnson (R): 52 (41)Tom Barrett (D): 44 (42)
Scott Walker (R): 52 (53)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Joe Manchin (D): 44
John Raese (R): 44
Jesse Johnson (MP): 5
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Frank Caprio (D): 37 (36)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (24)
John Robitaille (R): 22 (13)
Ken Block (M): 2 (2)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 45
David Harmer (R): 35
David Christensen (AIP): 5
(MoE: ±4.4)
Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 47 (50)
Mike Keown (R): 46 (44)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Rush Holt! (D): 51
Scott Sipprelle (R): 46
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Tim Bishop (D-inc): 51
Randy Altschuler (R): 39
(MoE: ±4%)
John Hall (D-inc): 43
Nan Hayworth (R): 46
(MoE: ±4%)
Bill Owens (D-inc): 42
Matt Doheny (R): 31
Doug Hoffman (C): 15After Hoffman voters told he suspended campaign/endorsed Doheny:
Bill Owens (D-inc): 44
Matt Doheny (R): 39
Doug Hoffman (C): 1
(MoE: ±4%)
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 40
Lou Barletta (R): 47
(MoE: ±4.8%)
Mark Critz (D-inc): 43
Tim Burns (R): 36
(MoE: ±4.9%)
• AK-Sen: In the avalanche of various other acts of hypocrisy and self-dealing that have come out about Joe Miller in the last few weeks, somehow I missed this one: not only did he avail himself of low-income hunting and fishing licenses, but his family has received assistance from Medicaid and similar state-level Denali Kidcare. Somewhere, his most ardent supporters are hurling their copies of Atlas Shrugged into the fireplace in disgust, learning that their mighty Producer is nothing more than a parasite, weakly availing himself of every program under the sun designed to enslave man. (And somewhere, either heaven or Rick Barber’s fevered imagination, James Madison is hurling his copy of the Federalist Papers into the fireplace, upset that this ostensible patriot is availing himself of such a plainly unconstitutional program.)
• DE-Sen: I think this had been made pretty clear few weeks ago, but Mike Castle reiterated it in as official terms as possible on CNN yesterday: he’s not endorsing anybody in the Senate race.
• FL-Sen: Very-tanned centrist GOPer governors gotta stick together, and Arnold Schwarzenegger just gave his probably-not-worth-much backing to Charlie Crist yesterday. The Marco Rubio camp may have gotten the last laugh here, though:
“When it comes to inflicting ‘Collateral Damage’ on the economy, Charlie Crist and Arnold Schwarzenegger are definitely ‘Twins.’ Charlie’s flip-flops have made him a master at telling ‘True Lies.’ We all know the only thing Charlie cares about is the next election. But this year, Florida will take an ‘Eraser’ to ‘The Running Man.'” – Rubio campaign spokesman Alex Burgos, responding to Schwarzenegger’s endorsement of Crist.
• PA-Sen: I wouldn’t start popping the champagne cork (or even buy a bottle of champagne) yet, but the DSCC seems to be seeing some negative-ad-driven progress in Pennsylvania. They’ve released an internal poll, via Garin Hart Yang, that actually gives Joe Sestak the lead. He’s up 44-42 over Pat Toomey, in a poll taken Oct. 8-10. With leaners pushed, Sestak expands to a 47-44 lead. No public pollster has seen anything like that (at least yet).
• WA-Sen: If you’re wondering what’s up with the huge disparities in Washington Senate numbers between the live-caller and auto-dialed polls, you’re not alone. Nate Silver doesn’t exactly have answers, pointing to unique Washington variables that confound pollsters, like its (almost entirely) vote-by-mail status and its large number of cellphone-only users. But he does have some interesting charts showing that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have consistently overestimated GOP performance all decade long in Washington (while, at the same time, Elway has overestimated Dem performance).
• WV-Sen: Hot on the heels of PPP’s poll showing Joe Manchin back in the lead, the DSCC is out with an internal poll showing similar numbers. The GQR poll from Oct. 7-12, the height of “hicky” mania, gives Manchin a 49-44 lead over John Raese, whose 40/38 faves lag Manchin’s 63/28.
• CA-Gov: All previous political self-funding records are quickly receding in Meg Whitman’s rearview mirror, as she just plowed another $20 million into her gubernatorial bid, bringing her all-cycle total to over $141 million.
• WV-Gov: I don’t know what West Virginians’ aversion to comprehensible succession laws is, but after emerging from the morass of how to replace Robert Byrd, now the legislature is grappling with what to do with the Governor position if Joe Manchin manages to win the Senate special election. Legislative lawyers say that unless the legislature takes some sort of action, Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin would take over as “acting governor” for the entire remainder of Manchin’s term, until the regularly scheduled Nov. 2012 election… but that there would be two elections that day, one for the full four years and one for the lame-duck period.
• FL-25: I look forward to seeing David Rivera’s explanation:
Over the past seven years, Republican state Rep. David Rivera repeatedly said in sworn documents that his main source of income, outside of his salary from the Legislature, came from consulting work he did for the U.S. Agency for International Development. But USAID has no record of ever hiring Rivera — now a candidate for Congress — or his company.
• KS-04: SurveyUSA has shown an unexpectedly close race (for an open seat in a dark-red district in this climate), with several polls in high single digits, so GOP nominee Mike Pompeo is offering some pushback with an internal from Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates from Oct. 10-11. His poll gives him a 48-31 lead over Raj Goyle. (You may recall that this pollster works with the Club for Growth, and is responsible for highlights like this one. Senator Dick Zimmer vouches for their accuracy!)
• NY-24: Richard Hanna’s out with an internal poll, courtesy of McLaughlin (no dates given by Politico, and with a big fat MoE of 5.6%). Hanna leads, but only by 46-43. Considering that Hanna is trying to push back against not a Mike Arcuri internal but an honest-to-gosh public poll (from Siena) with an Arcuri lead of 8, that seems like kind of weak sauce.
• MN-06: Today’s fundraising highlight is that Michele Bachmann pulled in $5.4 million in the third quarter. Interestingly, it looks like she’ll report “only” $3.4 million cash on hand, suggesting a similar phenomenon as Sharron Angle (for whom there weren’t any CoH numbers at all), where there’s a lot of churn going on not just for a TV blitz but also for widespread nationwide direct-mail marketing, which is expensive. (Just ask Joe Cao.) While these numbers certainly don’t bode well as far as unseating Bachmann this year, the bright side is that’s money that low-information voters might otherwise have given to GOP House challengers in tight races who could have actually leveraged that money a lot more effectively.
• TX-27: Even if you’re a political junkie like us, yesterday’s internal poll was probably the first you’ve ever heard of Blake Farenthold. The DCCC fills in some blanks, suggesting that you’re probably not likely to hear too much about him in the future, either. He’s somehow sitting on a negative $5K in cash, and… I’m not quite sure how this happened, but he appears on the front of what appears to be some sort of local tea party-oriented publication, in pajamas, in the company of what appears to be some sort of sex-industry professional (and not as an example of what not to do, but apparently because said publication is endorsing him). Yeah, I’m just as confused as you; you’ll have to check out the link.
• WA-08: Ordinarily, we don’t report on newspaper endorsements, since they don’t seem to move many votes and are usually pretty predictable based on each paper’s e-board leanings. We’ll make an exception in this case, since Dave Reichert largely owes his continued existence to the Seattle Times, who’ve clung to him as, in their eyes, the last remaining exemplar of the old-style moderate Republicanism they fetishize. So it’s a strange and wondrous thing to see them turning their back on him in favor of Suzan DelBene.
• Blue Dogs: CQ has an interesting piece about the yawning leadership gap at the Blue Dogs, where two of its key members, John Tanner and Dennis Moore, are skedaddling. It cites a number of possible new heads (most notably Allen Boyd and Jim Matheson), but there’s a certain amount of cart-before-horse here, because the Blue Dogs are disproportionately in the crosshairs this cycle and it’s unclear how many of the key ones (Boyd, especially, as well as Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) will even be back.
• DLCC: The DLCC is out with its third and probably final installment in its “Essential Races” series, pointing you (and your contribution dollars) toward 15 more legislators in key races that might determine chamber control in some of the most important state legislatures.
• Money: More evidence that the advantage by the Democratic committees and individual members was pretty illusory, given the myriad ways (527s and 501(c)(4)s, oh my) that the wealthy have to plow nearly-unlimited money into political races: an alliance of groups (Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and Norm Coleman’s American Action Network, as well as a new one, Commission on Hope, Growth, and Opportunity) is planning a $50 million ad blitz focused on some relatively underserved House races. This includes IN-02, CO-07, and even Maurice Hinchey’s NY-22. (H/t Nathan Gonzales.)
• SSP TV:
• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk revisits the Broadway Bank yet again with his newest ad
• LA-Sen: A solid ad from Charlie Melancon, hitting David Vitter on outsourcing and cozying up to BP
• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan tries some anti-Washington (including congressional pay raises) shots at Roy Blunt
• PA-Sen: VoteVets boosts Joe Sestak with a hit on Pat Toomey for voting against veterans’ benefits
• CT-Gov: The RGA has a boilerplate attack ad on Dan Malloy as tax-raising career politician
• HI-Gov: It’s not your imagination, this race is looking competitive, at least if the DGA is advertising here: they’re out with an anti-Duke Aiona ad
• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn’s new ad actually comes close to saying that Bill Brady will kill your dog if you vote for him.
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland’s ad goes back to the basics: hitting John Kasich on his outsourcing Wall Street ways
• SC-Gov: The RGA is having to advertise and staff up in SC-Gov, probably much to their chagrin, as this looks like it’s turning into a real race: their new spot calls Vincent Sheheen liberal, morphs him into Obama, and does all the usual
• IL-17: The SEIU backs up one of labor’s biggest backers in the House, Phil Hare, with a 10-day buy for $317K in the Quad Cities, for an ad hitting Bobby Schilling on free trade and outsourcing
• PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s new ad goes after Jim Gerlach and ‘special interests’
• PA-08: VoteVets is also out with a spot in the 8th, hitting Mike Fitzpatrick on veterans’ benefits votes during his brief stay in Congress
• WI-03: The National Federation of Independent Business is out with a slew of new ads that includes softening up not-quite-top-tier Dem districts, with 10-day ad buys including not just WI-03 but also CA-11, CO-03, MO-03, NY-19, NY-23, PA-10, OH-16, and SC-05.
• Rasmussen:
• ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 32%, Paul LePage (R) 35%, Eliot Cutler (I) 21%
• NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 43%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%
• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D) 52%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 49%
• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally got around to belatedly filing his financial disclosures, maybe feeling he had something to hide. He really shouldn’t, because he’s just like the rest of us: he’s carrying a lot of credit card debt. He owes between $35K and $80K on three separate charge accounts, and also owes himself $103K for a campaign loan. That, my friends, is fiscal conservatism you can believe in. (His biggest asset seems to be undeveloped farmland worth at least $250K, apparently the same Delta Jct. land for which he was receiving farm subsidies.)
• FL-Sen: Here’s a freaky rumor (and I think it’s nothing more than that, as everything seems to be business as usual with the Kendrick Meek camp today, at least on the surface). The Wall St. Journal alludes to increased chatter that a Meek/Charlie Crist deal might be in the works for Meek to drop out of the race and clear the way for Crist to take all the left-of-center votes.
• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: The DGA is out with an internal poll of Illinois, via Global Strategy Group. The poll, though, has better news on the Senate front than the gubernatorial battle. Alexi Giannoulias leads Mark Kirk by 3: 40-37, with 3 each to the Green and Libertarian candidates. On the other hand, Pat Quinn, who’s popped up in the lead in a couple polls lately, trails Bill Brady by 1, at 36-35, with 4 for Green Rich Whitney, 2 for Lex Green, and 6 for Scott Lee Cohen. Just the fact that Quinn seems to be climbing back into the thick of things at this late date seems to be newsworthy in itself, though.
• MO-Sen: As is often the case with these advancing-in-a-different-direction stories, there have been some mixed signals about whether the DSCC is packing up in Missouri. Hotline is observing that this seems to be at least partially the case: they’ve canceled buys from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25, although the buy still seems intact for the last week before the election. They’ve spent $1.8 million in Missouri so far, but probably will be looking to spend that money on defense in West Virginia, or maybe even Washington, which seems to be slowly edging back onto the map.
• NV-Sen: We might expect a steady stream of endorsements on a regular basis from now until the election for Harry Reid from not-insane Republicans. Two were just unveiled in the last few days. One is from Bill Raggio, the former Republican leader in the state Senate (and a legislator since 1972), who has particular reason to dislike Sharron Angle, as she tried to primary him out of his Reno-area seat in 2008. The other is Dema Guinn, the widow of the recently deceased ex-Gov. Kenny Guinn, who also says that her former husband would have backed Reid in this case too.
• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/1-5, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55 (48)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 34 (42)
Undecided: 11 (9)
(MoE: ±2.9%)
SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 54 (45)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 35 (44)
Other: 8 (8)
Undecided: 3 (4)Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (49)
Carl Paladino (R): 34 (40)
Other: 5 (8)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±4%)
I think we can conclude that both those previous Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls — the two ones that came out simultaneously and had the big New York races in single digits, spurring a wave of panic — were some combination of a perfect wave of primary bounce and big honkin’ outlier. These races have resumed looking pretty much the way they have all cycle except for those two blips.
We also have NY-Sen-A numbers (60-30 for Chuck Schumer over Jay Townsend in SurveyUSA, and 63-32 in Quinnipiac), and NY-AG numbers (Eric Schneiderman leads Dan Donovan 46-40 in SurveyUSA, and 43-32 in Quinnipiac). Quinnipiac also has Thomas DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 49-31 in the Comptroller race.
SurveyUSA for KABC-TV (9/30-10/3, likely voters, 9/19-21 in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 47 (46)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (43)
Other: 8 (8)
Undecided: 2 (3)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)
Carly Fiorina (R): 43 (43)
Other: 9 (6)
Undecided: 2 (2)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
SurveyUSA finds very little movement on the polling front, with Barbara Boxer losing a few points to “undecided,” and Jerry Brown gaining a smidgen of ground. (This poll was in the field after the Meg Whitman housekeeper story had broken, although it continued to evolve; unlike Rasmussen, they seem to find it barely affecting the numbers with everyone pretty much already having made up their minds.) SurveyUSA has some other odds and ends, as per usual: they find Gavin Newsom still leading Abel Maldonado in the Lt. Governor race, 42-37, and Proposition 19 for the legalization of marijuana still passing, 48-41.
Ipsos for Reuters (10/3-4, likely voters, 6/25-27 (using RVs) in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 50 (45)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (39)
Undecided: 7 (14)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49 (45)
Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (41)
Undecided: 6 (13)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Ipsos’s trendlines also suggest that nothing much has changed, although it has because they’ve been out of the California picture for four months and they entirely missed Meg Whitman’s August spike and subsequent swoon. (This poll was also taken after housekeeper-gate, but 72% say that has no effect on their vote.) Reuters finds little enthusiasm gap in California, with 75% of Dems reporting they’re certain to vote, and on top of that, Brown and Boxer both lead among independents. Among RVs, Boxer and Brown both lead by an identical 48-42. Interestingly, that’s two polls in one day finding Brown polling better than Boxer, which we’ve rarely seen all cycle.
Ipsos finds 53-43 support for Prop 19 (pot), 37-49 support for suspending the state’s greenhouse gases law, and support a simple majority for budget passage by 58-29.
GOP operative Mike Murphy is also tweeting that the Meg Whitman camp has an internal showing her within two points, 43-41. It also has Gloria Allred (representing Meg Whitman’s former worker) with an unfavorable of 68%!!!1! (Uh, too bad Gloria Allred isn’t running for anything.)