Sen. Evan Bayh will not run for re-election, a decision that will shock Democrats and Republicans alike in Indiana.
In prepared remarks, Bayh, 54, cited excessive partisanship that makes progress on public policy difficult to achieve as the motivation for his decision.
“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so in Congress has waned,” he said.
“My decision was not motivated by political concern,” he added. “Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election.”
Among other things, Bayh cited the recent Senate vote against a bipartisan commission to deal with the deficit (which would likely have recommended big cuts in entitlements).
Seven-term Representative Leonard Boswell is only the 64th most vulnerable Democrat in the House of Representatives, according to Crisitunity’s “vulnerability index,” but Iowa Republicans still like their chances against him. Five candidates have already entered the GOP primary, and two others I’ve never heard of were reportedly collecting signatures on nominating petitions at the off-year caucuses on January 23. The field may expand before the filing deadline in March.
A few recent developments in the Republican primary race are after the jump.
Former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons is way ahead in the money race, thanks to support from heavy-hitters like ethanol baron Bruce Rastetter as well as a number of political action committees. After announcing his candidacy in November, Gibbons raised $207,310, spent $2,240 and ended the year with $205,069 on hand and $2,686 in debts owed. In the fourth quarter, he raised more money than Boswell, who collected $169,377, spent $50,643 and had $462,193 cash on hand as of December 31. (Most of Boswell’s fourth-quarter fundraising came from political action committees.)
Craig Robinson of the Iowa Republican blog has been promoting Gibbons’ candidacy for a while now, and he is ready to declare victory for Gibbons in the primary already, based on the fundraising numbers. However, Bleeding Heartland user mirage (a supporter of State Senator Brad Zaun) noted in the same thread, “About $51,000 of Gibbons funds will be restricted (meaning they can’t be used against Zaun in a primary), and about $130,000 came from outside the 3rd district.”
Speaking of Zaun, he raised $30,600 during the fourth quarter, spent $93 and ended 2009 with $30,507 on hand. Presumably he has raised more money since January 1, because he made a television ad buy last week. It’s generic Republican fare with low production values:
Zaun was the first up on television, but as Robinson noted triumphantly, “Even if [Dave] Funk or Zaun raised $1000 everyday between now and the primary, they still wouldn’t match what Gibbons currently has in his campaign account.”
Funk, the IA-03 candidate favored by the Tea Party crowd, raised $22,685 in the fourth quarter, spent $19,553 and ended the year with $16,507 on hand. According to mirage, much of Funk’s remaining money is restricted for use after the primary. I don’t think he’ll be needing that.
Mark Rees, who is running as a more moderate Republican, raised $3,100 and loaned his own campaign $52,647. He spent $3,247 and ended the year with $52,500 and $52,647 in debts owed to himself. I don’t know how much of a moderate GOP base is left in the Des Moines suburbs, but if conservatives divide their support among three or four candidates, Rees could slip through.
Yesterday we learned about an internal poll of the GOP race, conducted by Victory Enterprises, campaign consultants for Zaun. I posted the whole polling memo from Victory Enterprises at Bleeding Heartland. The poll was conducted on January 27 and 28 and surveyed 400 Republicans in Iowa’s third Congressional district who are likely to vote in the June primary.
The poll shows 60 percent of respondents were undecided about whom to support in the primary. Zaun had 26 percent support, compared to 5 percent for Gibbons, 3.6 percent for Funk, 2.1 percent for Pat Bertroche and 1 percent for Rees. In Polk County, the population center of the district, 37.5 percent of respondents supported Zaun. His family has owned hardware stores in the Des Moines area, and he is a former mayor of Urbandale, a large suburb. His state senate district includes Urbandale and part of Des Moines.
About half the respondents hadn’t heard of Zaun. (This poll was in the field before his tv ad went up on January 29.) I was more surprised to see that 67.8 percent of respondents said they had never heard of Gibbons. His supporters have promoted him as almost a celebrity candidate, because he was the last person to lead Iowa State to a national championship in wrestling.
Several of the candidates will gain more name recognition in the coming months as they begin to advertise and hold campaign events around the districts. Gibbons clearly will have the resources for an extensive paid media campaign. National Republicans seem to have picked Gibbons already, which is one reason he’s pulled in so much out of state PAC money.
Zaun’s early activity is similar to that of another former Victory Enterprises client, 2008 2nd Congressional District candidate Peter Teahen. In May of 2008, Victory Enterprises polled the 2nd Congressional District. Teahen, the better known candidate from the largest county in the district, had a big lead in the poll.
In VE’s 2008 poll showed Peter Teahen with 36% of the vote, while Miller-Meeks had 14 percent, and Lee Harder netted 7.5 percent. Forty-one percent of likely GOP primary voters were undecided. Despite the Teahen’s early lead, Miller-Meeks won the primary by 218 votes.
The difference between the 2008 2nd District race and this year’s 3rd District primary is that Gibbons has created a huge fundraising advantage over his opponents. Thus far, Gibbons has not run any ads, sent mail, or paid for phone calls.
The money race between Teahen and Miller-Meeks in the primary was tight. While Miller-Meeks outraised her opponent, Teahen had the ability to loan his campaign a considerable amount of money. Gibbons has already raised more money in his first fundraising quarter than Miller-Meeks and Teahen spent combined in the 2nd District primary.
I agree with Robinson that this race is up for grabs with so many Republicans undecided and most of the candidates lacking name recognition. I also think Boswell will be re-elected, despite the Republican wave that may be coming. None of the GOP candidates seem impressive, and the eventual nominee will have little cash left after the primary.
Roxanne Conlin’s campaign for U.S. Senate released partial fundraising numbers yesterday, and they are impressive:
Total cash raised (Nov. 2 – Dec. 31):
$603,575.44
Cash on hand:
$502,832.84
Total individual donors: 1,649 (1,395 Iowans/85% Iowans)
Online supporters signed up: Over 31,000
Donations $100 and under: 1,332
Donations $250 and under: 1,433
All of Conlin’s campaign contributions came from individual supporters, because she has pledged not to accept contributions from federal lobbyists or PACs. (I wouldn’t have advised her to take that stance, because there are PACs and lobbyists fighting for good things as well as those working against the public interest.) In any event, she has shown that she can raise enough money to staff and run a statewide campaign. Conlin is about a third of the way through a 99-county tour she began earlier this month.
In other words, Conlin raised more from individual donors in two months than Grassley raised from individuals during the third quarter. That’s a strong pace, and it suggests a lot of Iowans are motivated to take the fight to Grassley. Conlin has already raised nearly five times as much as Democrat Art Small spent during his entire 2004 campaign against Iowa’s senior senator.
I don’t have new fundraising numbers from the other Democrats running against Grassley. Bob Krause raised $7,430 during the third quarter, ending with $3,493 on hand. Tom Fiegen raised $3,781 during the third quarter, ending with $519 on hand. I like many of the statements I’ve heard from Krause and Fiegen, but they have yet to show that they will be able to run a statewide campaign, and therefore appear to be extreme underdogs leading up to the Democratic primary in June. Neither Krause nor Fiegen seems likely to drop out of this race, however. On the contrary, Fiegen called on Conlin to quit the race last month, saying Republican attacks on her would divert attention from Grassley and the “needs of working families.” Yesterday Krause criticized one of Conlin’s tax credit proposals.
Grassley will be very tough to beat. His approval rating has fallen but is still above 50 percent, and he has set a goal of raising $9 million for this race. Even if Democrats don’t manage to defeat Grassley, giving him a spirited challenge is well worth the effort. Driving up turnout among Democrats whom Grassley has alienated can only help our candidates down-ticket.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has been trying to get 14-term incumbent Rick Boucher (D, VA-09) to retire, but he disappointed them today:
“I am planning to seek reelection. I have given no consideration to retiring,” Boucher said in a statement Wednesday. “While I never make political announcements this early in the year, due to the press inquires we are receiving, it is time to remove any doubt anyone has about my intentions.”
Holding this R+11 district would be a challenge if the seat opened up, but most election forecasters don’t expect Boucher to have any trouble.
If Republicans do recruit a prominent challenger to run in this district, Boucher’s vote for the Waxman-Markey American Clean Energy and Security Act last June will probably become a major issue in the campaign. Coal interests are big employers in Boucher’s district. He backed the climate change bill after securing amendments to make sure that coal usage would continue to grow between now and 2020 even if the bill became law.
“I have introduced this important legislation because the Supreme Court’s ruling strikes at the very core of democracy in the United States by inflating the speech rights of large, faceless corporations to the same level of hard-working, every day Americans,” Boswell said in a statement. “The court’s elevation of corporate speech inevitably overpowers the speech and interests of human citizens who do not have the coffers to speak as loudly.”
Boswell said House Joint Resolution 68 would disallow a corporation or labor organization from using any operating funds or any other funds from its general treasury to pay for an advertisement in connection with a federal election campaign, regardless of whether or not the advertisement expressly advocates the election or defeat of a specified candidate.
“Corporations already have an active role in American political discourse through million-dollar political action committees and personal donations to campaigns,” Boswell said. “The legislation I introduced will prevent the Wall Street corporations that received billions in taxpayer bailout dollars from turning around and pouring that same money into candidates that will prevent financial regulation on their industry. No American should have to turn on the TV and see AIG telling them how to vote.”
Five Republicans are running against seven-term incumbent Boswell in this D+1 district. Most Iowa observers consider Brad Zaun and Jim Gibbons the front-runners. Dave Funk has the backing of the Tea Party crowd, and I love his tweets that begin, “Congress needs Funk.” Mark Rees is staking out a moderate position, and I have no idea what Pat Bertroche is doing in this race.
Long-shot candidate Dave Funk was the first Republican to step up against Boswell, and he just hired Iowa Tea Party Chairman Ryan Rhodes as his political director. I assume that Funk will not be able to raise enough money to compete with Zaun and Gibbons, and that there aren’t several thousand central Iowa teabaggers for him to pull out of his hat.
Democratic Rep. Chris Carney received a phone call Wednesday from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) asking him to consider becoming a Republican, a top GOP official told POLITICO.
A spokesman for Carney declined to say if the congressman was considering such a switch.
“No further comment at this time,” said Carney spokesman Josh Drobnyk, who would only confirm that the call took place.
In a brief interview, McCain declined to offer details about the conversation.
“I just said, ‘Whatever you do, I know that you’ll make the right decision for the country,'” said the Arizonan.
Carney defeated Republican incumbent Don Sherwood in 2006. Pennsylvania’s 10th district has a PVI of R+8.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Martin tweeted today that Walt Minnick (ID-01) and Bobby Bright (AL-02) are not switching.
UPDATE: Forgot to mention that Carney voted for the stimulus bill and the House version of health care reform, so it’s questionable whether he could survive a GOP primary in PA-10. He did vote against the climate change bill.
“I am flattered by the overtures of Sen. McCain and other Republican Party officials and consider their outreach a sure sign that I have worked in a truly bipartisan manner,” Carney said in a statement.
“I always put my district above political party and have maintained an independent voice. I have enjoyed widespread Republican support throughout my district and will continue to work closely with Democrats, Republicans and independents alike. I appreciate the Republican Party’s outreach, but I have no plans to change parties.”
Just noticed this story in Politico (apologies if this was already diaried somewhere here):
The DCCC raised $3.65 million for the month, and ended November with $15.35 million cash-on-hand. It still holds $2.66 million in debt from last election cycle.
The NRCC only raised $2.34 million in November, and spent $2.16 million, hardly adding to their overall cash total. The committee now has $4.35 million in its account, while still owing $2 million in debt.
I am feeling rather pessimistic about next year’s House races, but if the NRCC can’t build up a decent war chest now, with unemployment high and support for health care reform sinking, I don’t see them putting together a huge wave. They’re talking about targeting dozens of seats, but they’re a long way from having the money to do that.
On the other hand, they do seem to have a more enthusiastic base.
Three conservative Republicans have already announced plans to run against Representative Leonard Boswell in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and today retired architect Mark Rees of West Des Moines threw his hat in the ring too.
William Petroski reports for the Des Moines Register:
Rees said he isn’t criticizing Democratic President Barack Obama or individual members of Congress.
“It’s not that I support what is and has been happening in Washington because I don’t any more than my fellow candidates,” Rees said in prepared remarks. “But it serves no legitimate purpose to craft politically motivated, emotionally driven statements laced with selected statistics promoting and promising unrealistic, unachievable results.” […]
Rees said he supports a federal balanced budget amendment, expanded job creation tax credits, capital investment tax credits for new equipment and facilities expansion and developing market import loan programs. He favors stronger border security, but wants to provide immigrants with a path to citizenship.
In addition, Rees said he wants to protect marriage between a man and a woman, but also believes in civil unions. He also favors cost-effective efforts to cap carbon emissions, but he does not support programs to allow pollution credits to be traded or purchased by any entity other than the government.
He said he supports expanding alternative energy programs through investment tax credit programs and a progressive tax structure that includes a vanishing long-term capital gains tax, a tiered short-term capital gains tax, a specialized market trading surtax, and a targeted short-sales capital gains tax.
West Des Moines is the largest suburb of Des Moines and one of the larger cities in IA-03, but many of the newest and wealthiest neighborhoods in West Des Moines lie in Dallas County, which is part of IA-04.
I have no idea whether Rees can self-fund or raise enough money to run a credible campaign during the primary. Dave Funk, Jim Gibbons and Brad Zaun will be competing to see who’s the most conservative, so it’s conceivable that a moderate could sneak through next June with a strong showing in the Des Moines suburbs.
If any of the other candidates drop out before then, though, I would put extremely long odds on GOP primary voters selecting someone who believes in civil unions for same-sex couples or a path to citizenship for immigrants who came to this country illegally.
TUESDAY UPDATE: According to The Iowa Republican blog, Pat Bertroche is campaigning for this seat but has not filed paperwork with the FEC yet. So that would make five candidates if Bertroche goes forward.
So Utah gains a seat, having no clue about Utah Politics I decided to make a district as ridiculously large as possible while keeping the deviation of population as low as possible. I knew that most of the population in Utah was around Salt Lake City and the Provo area, but I had no idea it was that concentrated.
CD-01: Blue deviates from the average district population with +7
CD-02: Green deviates the least from the district average with -6 people
CD-03: Purple deviates the most from the district average which is -26 people
CD-04: I admit that the Red district is packed with people to make it larger. +25 people from the district average :p
I think CD-04 may be geographically one of the largest not-at-large districts
