Tag: Democrats

[Cross-posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

As we look at the 2008 Senate map, and where we have pick-up opportunities, there are some obvious choices for who would be our best candidate, and there are some not so obvious choices.

From Sebelius in Kansas to Allen in Maine to Easley in North Carolina to a number of choices in New Hampshire to fewer choices in Idaho, there is much to discuss.

Who is your ideal 2008 Senate candidate? Who would you like to see run?

More below the fold.

SEEMS OBVIOUS

Colorado (Wayne Allard) – U.S. Rep. Mark Udall: he’s all-but-in, so no need for the hard sell, and he’s the frontrunner with momentum while the CO-GOP is looking to a potentially nasty primary

Kansas (Pat Roberts) – Governor Kathleen Sebelius: enjoys a 67-29 approval-disapproval as Governor

Maine (Susan Collins) – U.S. Rep. Tom Allen: one of only two ME Congressmen, he is routinely re-elected with 60+% of the vote

Mississippi (Thad Cochran) – Former state Attorney General Mike Moore: the most popular Democrat in Mississippi

Nebraska (Chuck Hagel) – Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey: a bright star on a relatively shallow bench

North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) – Governor Mike Easley: already beating Elizabeth Dole in polling

Virginia (John Warner) – Former Governor Mark Warner: left the Governor’s office with an 80+% approval rating

SEEMS FAIRLY OBVIOUS

Alaska (Ted Stevens) – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich: With Tony Knowles’ electoral results statewide dropping from ’98 to ’04 to ’06, it seems that Begich’s star is the fasting rising among AK-Dems

Oregon (Gordon Smith) – U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer: a popular Democrat re-elected with larger totals each successive election, he seems to be politically preparing for a statewide bid

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander) – Governor Phil Bredesen: enjoys a monstrous 73-24 approval rating, while Lamar is at 53-36

Wyoming (Mike Enzi) – Governor Dave Freudenthal/Former Congressional candidate Gary Trauner: pretty much the only two high profile Democrats in the state at the moment; Freudenthal enjoys a mammoth 77-19 approval, but has indicated no interest in the race; Trauner came within about 1,000 votes of winning the At-Large Congressional seat in 2006

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (deep benches) – who would you prefer?

Minnesota (Norm Coleman) – do we choose the high-profile satirist, the millionaire public interest attorney, or well-known legislators?

New Hampshire (John Sununu) – do we choose the popular, young Mayor, the prominent activist, the progressive businessman, or the medical professor/former astronaut? An embarrassment of riches that not only should scare Sununu but also Gregg in ’10

New Mexico (Pete Domenici) – several prominent Congresspeople and current and former statewide elected officials – just waiting on Domenici to make a retire or run for re-elect decision

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (slimmer or quieter benches) – who are your picks?
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Idaho (Larry Craig)
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Texas (John Cornyn)

The Hill published an article highlighting some of the fundraising efforts of freshmen Democrats in the House.  Apparently, many are doing quite well.  David Loebsack (IA-02) has raised about $71,000.  Kirsten Gillebrand (NY-20) has raised $65,000 in PAC money alone.  Earl Perlmutter (CO-07) has raised $79,000.  Charlie Wilson (OH-06) has raised $34,000.  Paul Hodes has raised $35,000.  Jason Altmire (PA-04) and Patrick Murphy (PA-08) have both raised $50,000 in PAC money alone.  Zack Space (OH-18) and Steven Kagen (WI-08) have both raised $35,000 in PAC money.

As far as simple financial numbers go, this is good news.  All of these candidates are vulnerable to some degree.  So, if all of these House members are already off to good starts, they may be able to force out potentially strong challenges early on.

But the article also has some worrying relevations.  For one thing, Nancy Boyda (KS-02) has raised only $13,000.  Considering the presidential vote in her district (Bush won it by 20 points), Boyda is probably one of our top five most vulnerable Democrats.  Plus, she will not have Sebelius’ coattails helping her and will instead have to contend with the Republican tide at the top of the ticket from the eventual Republican nominee and Senator Pat Roberts. Finally, she will possibly face a rematch against Jim Ryun. More over the flip…

However, the thing that is more disappointing to me than Boyda’s numbers (it’s early, give her some time) is where the other candidates are getting there money.  First, relying heavily on PAC money does not give the best image.  But beyond that, it’s a question of which PACs they’re getting donations from.

Both Gillebrand and Perlmutter have taken money from Altria, which represents the makers of Marlboro cigarettes. Loebsack and Perlmutter have received contributions from the American Bankers Association PAC while Perlmutter also has donations from Comcast and JP Morgan and Loebsack has donations from the American Association of Realtors.

It’s unsettling to see any elected officials taking money from cigarette makers.  It’s worse to see Democrats, liberal Democrats at that, doing that.  And while Comcast, et al. aren’t the scourge of Satan, I also don’t like the image of elected Democrats at their beg and call.

http://www.thehill.c…

My suggestion for anyone else who feels the way I do, is to donate through the Netroots and other liberal PACs like MoveOn and Democracy for America.  The more candidates and elected officials can get from the Netroots, the less they have to rely on PACs whose goals are sometimes/often/always contrary to the goals of progressives/working people/middle class/etc.

One should also note that Netroots heroes Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), John Yarmuth (KY-03), Joe Sestak (PA-07), John Hall (NY-19), and Tim Walz (MN-01) are not mentioned in the article.  We need to act now to keep these people a)in Congress by making sure they have adequate resources to be re-elected and b)from becoming corrupted by negative interests.

From BBC News:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6296299.stm

Kerry ‘will not seek White House’

Senator John Kerry, who lost to George W Bush in 2004, will not run for US president in 2008, reports say.

The Massachusetts Democrat had been thought to be considering another run, and had kept campaign staff and a fundraising operation in place.

But he would have faced an uphill battle for his party’s nomination, given the likely candidacies of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Mr Kerry is expected to make a formal announcement in the coming hours.

He made his decision only in the past day, reports say.

I already posted a list ranking the 132 most vulnerable members of the House.  Here is a list of the 60 most vulnerable House Democrats.  Rankings are based on PVI, 2004 incumbent or incumbent party performance and 2006 incumbent performance.  Those who received less than 55% of the vote in 2006 are in bold, and House fresh(wo)men are in italics.

1 WI-08 (KAGEN) R+4
2 KS-02 (BOYDA) R+7
3 IN-09 (HILL) R+7
4 FL-16 (MAHONEY)R+2
5 PA-10 (CARNEY) R+8
6 AZ-05 (MITCHELL) R+4
7 TX-22 (LAMPSON) R+15
8 NY-19 (HALL) R+1
9 IL-08 (BEAN) R+5
10 TX-23 (RODRIGUEZ) R+4

11 PA-04 (ALTMIRE) R+3
12 NY-20 (GILLIBRAND) R+3
13 NC-11 (SCHULER) R+7
14 CA-11 (McNERNEY) R+3
15 MN-01 (WALZ) R+1
16 IN-02 (DONNELLY) R+4
17 NH-01 (SHEA-PORTER) R+0
18 NY-24 (ARCURI) R+1
19 KY-03 (YARMUTH) D+2
20 AZ-08 (GIFFORDS) R+1

21 LA-03 (MELANCON) R+5
22 PA-08 (MURPHY) D+3
23 GA-12 (BARROW) D+2
24 TX-17 (EDWARDS) R+18
25 FL-22 (KLEIN) D+4
26 GA-08 (MARSHALL) R+8
27 NH-02 (HODES) D+3
28 IA-03 (BOSWELL) D+1
29 OR-05 (HOOLEY) D+1
30 UT-02 (MATHESON) R+17

31 CO-07 (PERLMUTTER) D+2
32 OH-18 (SPACE) R+6
33 IN-08 (ELLSWORTH) R+9
34 IA-02 (LOEBSACK) D+7
35 CO-03 (SALAZAR) R+6
36 CT-02 (COURTNEY) D+8
37 CT-05 (MURPHY) D+4
38 VT-AL (WELSH) D+9
39 PA-07 (SESTAK) D+4
40 IA-01 (BRALEY) D+5

41 SC-05 (SPRATT) R+6
42 SD-AL (HERSETH) R+10
43 KS-03 (MOORE) R+4
44 TX-27 (ORTIZ) R+1
45 TN-04 (DAVIS) R+3
46 IN-07 (CARSON) D+9
47 PA-17 (HOLDEN) R+7
48 AR-02 (SNYDER) R+0
49 ND-AL (POMEROY) R+13
50 VA-09 (BOUCHER) R+7

51 KY-06 (CHANDLER) R+7
52 NY-01 (BISHOP) D+3
53 TX-15 (HINOJOSA) D+3
54 IL-17 (HARE) D+5
55 TX-28 (CUELLAR) R+1
56 OR-04 (DeFAZIO) D+0
57 WI-03 (KIND) D+3
58 NC-13 (MILLER) D+2
59 NC-02 (ETHERIDGE) R+3
60 WA-03 (BAIRD) D+0

A list of the sixty most vulnerable House Republicans will be generated shortly.