Tag: Obama

I have done an intensive county-by-county analysis study of the state of OHIO vis-a-vis the presidential election from 2008.

The document is in three parts and published at GOOGLE DOCS.

Part I

Part II

Part III

The excel spreadsheet with all the raw data

As was the case with INDIANA, the study of OHIO was fascinating and provides much thought provoking information.

The advantage of GOOGLE DOCS is that I can continue to update and correct a document and it will be automatically republished without the link changing.

Next state for intensive county by county study: VIRGINIA

From December 2007 to March 2008, I wrote various drafts of a proposal on how our political parties — starting in 2012 — might adopt primary election procedures that would better serve our country in selecting presidential candidates. I originally drafted a hypothetical calendar for 2008, based on general election results from 2004. Now that we have the results for 2008, I can now propose a calendar specific to 2012.

The system by which our parties choose their presidential candidates has proven itself to be, at best, highly questionable — at worst, severely flawed.

The primary calendar we need most is one that is built on an orderly and rational plan — one that is based on mathematics and on recent historical outcomes — and not on an arbitrary, publicity-driven, system of one-upsmanship. The change I propose would provide for a more effective, equitable process than the one we have now.

The following factors are the key ones to consider:

Margin of Victory

– The state primaries would be placed in order according to the leading candidates’ margins of victory in the preceding general election — with the states registering the closest margins of victory going first.

For example, John McCain won Missouri by 0.1% and Barack Obama won North Carolina by 0.4%; conversely, McCain won Wyoming by 33%, and Obama won Hawaii by 45%. Therefore, the primary calendar I propose would commence with primaries being held in states such as Missouri and North Carolina — and would close with such states as Wyoming and Hawaii.

– The purpose of ordering the states according to the margin of victory is to help the parties determine which candidates can appeal to those states that have found themselves most recently on the Electoral Divide. A narrow margin in the general election is reflective of an evenly divided electorate. In this scenario, a candidate who appeals to, say, Florida and Montana is more likely to appeal to a greater number of Americans on the whole.

Iowa, New Hampshire, and Fairness

– Iowa and New Hampshire might object to this new system, given their longstanding tradition of being the first states to cast their ballots. However, so long as Iowa and New Hampshire retain their record of being fairly bipartisan states, they’ll maintain their position towards the front of the primary schedule.

– Just because a state should have its primary later in the season does not mean that that state will prove invaluable to the process. Indiana and North Carolina weren’t held until May 6th, but those two states might have very well decided the fate of the 2008 Democratic nomination.

– This new system allows other states to play a greater role in how the parties select their candidates. For example, Missouri and North Carolina would be two of the states to get the limelight in 2012. Likewise, based on the results to come in November of 2012, a still-different slate of states could have a more significant role come 2016. A rotating system will be healthier and fairer.

Groupings of Five, and Timing & Spacing

– By placing states into groupings of five, no one state will be overly emphasized on any given date.

– Candidates will still need to address the concerns of individual states, whilst having to maintain an overall national platform. For example, a candidate will be less able to campaign against NAFTA in Ohio whilst campaigning for it in Florida.

– Given that each state has its own system for electing its delegates, these groupings of five states will act as an overall balancer. Ideally, caucuses will be done away with altogether by 2012. However — should that not happen — states with caucuses, states with open primaries, and states with closed primaries can all coexist within a grouping, therefore no one system will hold too much influence on any given date.

– Racial and geographic diversity in this process has been a great concern for many. The narrowest margins of victory in 2008 were in a wide variety of regions — the Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the South, and the West.

– All parties would have an interest in addressing these narrow-margined states early on. The incumbent will want to win over those states that were most in doubt of him in the previous election, and opposing parties will want to put forth candidates who have the best chance of winning over those very same states.

– Primaries will be held biweekly, giving candidates and the media enough time to process and respond to the outcomes of each wave of primaries.

– Washington DC will be placed in the same grouping as whichever state — Virginia or Maryland — is closer to its own margin of victory.

– American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and Americans Abroad — not having Electoral votes of their own — will determine their own primary dates, so long as they occur between the first grouping and the last grouping.

Under these guidelines, the proposed calendar for the 2012 primary season is:

January 2012

Tue, 1/10

Missouri

North Carolina

Indiana

Florida

Montana

Tue, 1/24

Ohio

Georgia

Virginia

Colorado

South Dakota

Tue, 2/7

North Dakota

Arizona

South Carolina

Iowa

New Hampshire

Tue, 2/21

Minnesota

Pennsylvania

Texas

Nevada

West Virginia

Tue, 2/26

Mississippi

Wisconsin

New Jersey

New Mexico

Tennessee

Tue, 3/6

Kansas

Nebraska

Oregon

Kentucky

Michigan

Tue, 3/20

Washington

Maine

Louisiana

Arkansas

Alabama

Tue, 4/3

Connecticut

California

Illinois

Delaware

Maryland

Washington DC

Tue, 4/17

Alaska

Idaho

New York

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Tue, 5/1

Utah

Oklahoma

Wyoming

Vermont

Hawaii

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29…

Official: Locke likely to head Commerce

Former Washington governor would be Obama’s third pick for post

A senior administration official says President Barack Obama’s likely pick to head up the Commerce Department is former Washington Gov. Gary Locke.

Locke will be Obama’s third pick to lead the department. Republican Sen. Judd Gregg withdrew his name from contention on Feb. 12, citing “irresolvable conflicts” over the president’s massive stimulus plan.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson dropped out of the running last month, citing the distraction of a federal investigation into the awarding of a lucrative contract in his state.

Locke served two terms as governor of Washington state.

Lets hope the THIRD time is the charm here!

According to The Politico President Obama will nominate Judd Gregg to be his Sectary of Commerce tomorrow. Gregg will almost assuredly be confirmed easily and quickly as he’s well liked by Republicans and Democrats alike.

This now opens up his Senate seat. New Hampshire’s Democratic Governor John Lynch has all but pledged to appoint a Republican to the seat and Gregg said he only would have accepted with that condition. The most commonly mentioned liberal Republican placeholder is Bonnie Newman who served as chief of staff to Gregg but also endorsed Lynch in 2004.

This almost certainly assures that Gregg will at least vote for cloture on the stimulus which makes it likely that it will pass. In addition Newman is likely to be close politically to moderate Republicans like Snowe during her two years.

Also, after two years she is likely to retire rather then run for re-election. This will make the Democratic candidate (likely progressive Rep. Paul Hodes or Rep. Carol Shea-Porter) the odds on favorite. Likely Republican candidates include former Senator John Sununu and other even weaker candidates.

So in short, this moves the Senate slightly leftward for the next two years and will add a very progressive Senator after that. In return Gregg will get to be a member of the cabinet where he can’t do a whole lot of damage and will be useful selling stuff to Senate Republicans.  

The 1984 Presidential election was the first in which I tracked regional election returns, so now that we’re nearly a quarter century removed from the Reagan-Mondale election, I thought it would be fun to count up 20 American cities of varying sizes that have changed the most politically over that timespan.  And boy have there been a ton of changes…so much so that it was difficult to narrow my sample size to nearly 20.  The good news is that of the 20 selected, 13 of the cities have been trending more Democratic, and most of the nation’s significant metropolitan areas have trended most dramatically blue while it’s generally small, zero-growth cities (along with large swaths of rural America) that have been trending red.  More below the fold….

Now clearly there are some major metro areas that have trended strongly blue that didn’t make the cut here.  The most significant are the two largest, New York City and Los Angeles.  In the case of New York City, the Democratic Party’s growth hasn’t been as statistically dramatic as many of its peers.  And in the case of metropolitan Los Angeles, the Democratic trendline has been fairly erratic, particularly in the fast-growing Riverside-San Bernardino region which backslid towards the Republicans in 2000 and especially 2004 before returning to the Democrats in 2008.  Most of the towns on my list have experienced a fairly steady shift in the political trendline since 1984.  Anyway, in descending order…

20. Muskogee, Oklahoma….The caricature of Muskogee will eternally be connected to the flag-waving Merle Haggard song of the Vietnam War era, contrasting the God-fearing patriots of Muskogee with the disrespectful coastal “hippie” culture.  At least as far as political affiliation goes, Muskogee didn’t quite live up to that caricature, being a fairly reliable redoubt for Democrats for decades, even “wimpy liberals” like Michael Dukakis and Al Gore who lost Oklahoma statewide by double digits.  But the 2000 election was the last hurrah for Democrats in Muskogee as Rovian culture war politics caught up to them and resulted in a shift of partisan allegiance this decade.  Bush beat Kerry comfortably in 2004 and McCain trounced Obama by 15 points in Muskogee County this year, completing the realignment.  All is not completely lost though, as Muskogee County was one of only four Oklahoma Counties to vote against Jim Inhofe this year.

19. Jackson, Mississippi….Since Mississippi has never been a swing state and thus doesn’t get any serious media scrutiny in Presidential elections, it’s been easy to miss the political transformation of its largest city into a huge Democratic stronghold.  Hinds County, home of the majority of the Jackson metro area, was almost as Republican as Mississippi at large in the Mondale and Dukakis elections, but began moving gradually towards Democrats during the Clinton years and finally becoming a huge Democratic city this decade, with escalating margins of victory for both Gore and Kerry and then a more than 2-1 rout of Obama over McCain in 2008.  I’m sure the black vote has grown substantially as a percentage of Hinds County’s overall electorate, with much of the white vote moving east to Rankin County, which has remained staunchly Republican over the past two decades.  Nonetheless, metropolitan Jackson, MS, has moved substantially towards Democrats in the last quarter century.

18. Columbia, South Carolina…My writeup about Jackson, MS, could almost be cut-and-pasted to describe the trajectory of Columbia, South Carolina, since the Reagan-Mondale election, specifically Richland County, the county that’s home to the city of Columbia.  It started its leftward march during the Clinton years and finished this election cycle going nearly 64% for Obama.  Again, the county that can be best described as “suburban” Columbia (Lexington County) has trended Republican over the same time period suggesting racial polarization is likely in play, but the Republican growth in Lexington County has not kept pace with the Democratic growth of Richland County.

17. Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange, Texas….The southeast corner of Texas has long been a reliable Democratic bastion, with a fairly large black population working in tandem with a Yellow Dog Democrat instinct among the area’s white voters.  Back in 1984, the cluster of three counties in the state’s southeast corner all went for Mondale, in sharp contrast to Texas at-large and the United States at-large.  The region’s lesser populated counties, Orange and Newton, were the first to transform in the wrong direction, with Orange going red after the Clinton years and Newton barely hanging on for Gore in 2000.  With its larger black population, Jefferson County, the largest of the three counties, has hung on for Kerry and Obama with ever-shrinking margins, to the point that Obama won by merely two points in the county this year.  Meanwhile, Orange and Newton Counties both went for McCain by startling 2-1 margins.

16. Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina….The Raleigh-Durham area has always been the most Democratic population center of North Carolina, but the region’s population as a share of the state at-large and its Democratic margins have progressively grown since 1984 (when only Durham and Orange Counties narrowly went Mondale).  As a result, the region is most responsible for rapidly changing North Carolina from a Republican stronghold 10 years ago to an Obama state in 2008, and if Wake County (Raleigh, Cary) continues its leftward trendline, portends an even bluer future for North Carolina.

15. Lake Charles, Louisiana….Two positions up on the list I profiled Beaumont, Texas, and its shift away from Democrats since 1984.  Only about half an hour to its east is another small city in the Louisiana bayou that has become a tough slog for Democrats, at least in Presidential elections.  Twenty-point national loser Walter Mondale lost Calcasieu County (home of Lake Charles) by the slimmest of margins in 1984, but Democrats handily prevailed in three subsequent Presidential elections before the bottom started falling out in 2000.  Republican margins escalated in 2004 and 2008, where McCain prevailed by 25 percentage points in the county.  Race was almost certainly a factor in the size of Obama’s trouncing here, but it’s hard to imagine any Democratic Presidential candidate being able to win in Lake Charles nowadays.

14. Burlington, Vermont….In 2008, the state of Vermont was second only to Hawaii in its margin of victory for Barack Obama and has a reputation as one of, if not the most, liberal states in America.  Hard to imagine that up until 1992, Vermont was the most Republican state in America from a historical perspective, being the only state to never have voted for FDR.  Things changed fast in the Clinton years, and Burlington, the largest city in Vermont (using the term “city” very loosely), is metaphorical for the entire state’s wholesale dismissal of the Republican Party over the last two decades.  Chittenden County (Burlington) went for Barack Obama by more than 70% this year.  Quite a contrast for a place that stubbornly embraced Alfred Landon and Wendell Willkie rather than voting for Franklin Roosevelt.

13. Chicago, Illinois….In 1984, Walter Mondale carried Cook County, home of the city of Chicago and another two million residents of suburban Chicago, by less than three percentage points.  Meanwhile, all of the suburban and exurban counties surrounding Chicago (Du Page, Lake, Will, McHenry, Kane) went for Reagan by 2-1 margins.  A similar, if slightly less dramatic, formula emerged in 1988.  It was a formula in which Republicans were able to eke out victories of narrow to modest proportions in the state of Illinois.  But starting with the Clinton years, the calculus changed.  Democratic margins in Cook County grew, while margins in the suburban-exurban counties began to shrink a little more with every election cycle, so much so that long-time Du Page County Congressman Henry Hyde has his first quasi-scare in 2004.  In 2008, a favorite son was on the ballot and threw the curve a little bit, but the trendline still seems to hold.  Nowadays, the Democratic performance in metropolitan Chicago is so consistently dominating that even landslide GOP victories downstate aren’t enough to put Republicans in the game, as witnessed in 2004 when John Kerry won only 15 of Illinois’ 102 counties, yet still won the state by double digits due to his 40-point landslide in Cook County.

12. Columbus, Ohio…..Up until the last 10 years, the Columbus area was far closer politically to the Cincinnati metro area than the Cleveland metro area, going strongly for Reagan and Bush-41 and even backing Bush-41 over Bill Clinton in 1992, but significant demographic shifts have moved Columbus dramatically to the left, starting with Gore’s surprise (at least to me) narrow victory in the 2000 Presidential election.  That half-point margin of victory for Gore grew to nine points in 2004 and nearly 20 points in 2008, providing Democrats a desperately needed counterweight to the Appalachian region of southern Ohio which has been trending against them in the same time period.  Columbus’ exurban counties remain Republican, but there are signs that margins are beginning to shrink even there.

11. Paducah, Kentucky….There’s a cluster of territory in western Kentucky and southern Illinois that seems to be politically similar, with a long-standing Yellow Dog Democrat leaning that held on through the 1980’s and 1990’s.  Neither Mondale nor Dukakis won McCracken County, home of Paducah, but both fell short by less than ONE-HALF of one percentage point versus Reagan and Bush-41, respectively.  Clinton won there comfortably in 1992 and 1996, as he did in most of the rural areas surrounding Paducah on both the Illinois and Kentucky side of the Ohio River.  But for reasons I don’t really have a handle on, the tide turn dramatically in 2000 and has continued sweeping Republicans into office since by growing margins.  McCain beat Obama by more than 25 points in McCracken County in 2008.  And unlike some other Yellow Dog Democrat regions that continue to perform well for some downballot Democrats, Paducah has turned against the party almost completely, even rejecting Dan Mongiardo and Bruce Lunsford in recent Kentucky Senate elections.

10. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Florida….I tend to consider Florida’s Gold Coast region one single metro area despite the significantly different demographics in the northern and southern halves of the area.  The entire region leaned Republican in the 1980’s.  Neither Mondale nor Dukakis was able to win Palm Beach or Broward Counties, and both lost big in Miami-Dade County.  The area trended strongly blue in the 1990s and especially 2000, where the presence of Jewish Vice-Presidential nominee Joe Lieberman helped run up the score to blistering margins for Gore in Palm Beach and Broward Counties.  While Democratic margins in those two counties have stalled and even backslid slightly in 2004 and 2008, the Miami-Dade area has picked up the slack and continues its 25-year trendline from a Republican stronghold to a Democratic stronghold.

9. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania…..Metropolitan Philadelphia was much like Chicago in the 1980s in that the city was staunchly Democrat but the suburban areas were uncontested Republican strongholds populated by affluent Reagan-era yuppies.  But like Chicago, the last decade has seen the city grow even more Democratic while the suburbs, on the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware sides, have become less Republican.  And that’s the only difference between suburban Chicago and suburban Philadelphia.  Philly’s suburbs have not only become less Republican, they’ve become outright Democratic.  This year, with far-flung exurban centers like Chester and Berks Counties in Pennsylvania turning an Obama shade of blue, the realignment has been complete, and necessary to help offset shrinking Democratic margins in the western part of Pennsylvania.

8. Gadsden, Alabama….While Alabama has not recently been associated with significant numbers of Yellow Dog Democrats the way that Arkansas and Tennessee have, the mostly white area north of Birmingham remained strong terrain for Democrats in the 1980s and 1990s.  The most populous county among them was Etowah County, home of the small northern Alabama city of Gadsden.  Mondale and Dukakis lost the county by microscopic margins (less than half a point) but Clinton went on to win twice in the 1990s.  But it was clear by Clinton’s scant three-point margin in 1996 that times were changing in Gadsden.  And change they did, with Bush prevailing comfortably in 2000 and Republicans growing margins significantly in 2004 and 2008, with McCain ultimately prevailing with an astounding 69% margin.  I think it’s a pretty safe bet that Gadsden, Alabama, will not be returning to the Democratic fold in the foreseeable future.

7. Reno-Sparks-Carson City, Nevada….While there has been a tremendous shift towards Democrats in Las Vegas over the past few decades, a more recent and more dramatic political realignment has played out a few hours up the road in Reno.  Northwestern Nevada reliably churned out margins better than 2-1 for Republicans in the 1980’s and continued going red even during the Clinton years, but the first signs of softening emerged in 2000 when Washoe County went Bush by “only” 10 points.  Four years later, John Kerry spent a lot of time and money in Reno to try to turn Nevada blue, and managed to shrink Bush’s margin from 10 points to four points.  This year, Reno finally made the leap to the Democrats with margins so lopsided that it’s hard to believe it was ever Republican in the first place (13 points for Obama in Washoe County and even a narrow victory in Carson City).

6. Denver-Boulder, Colorado…..Walter Mondale got destroyed everywhere but the city of Denver in 1984, but from that point forward, there were pockets of Democratic strength in metropolitan Denver, specifically Boulder County and the northern Denver suburbs of Adams County.  Nonetheless, the rapidly growing suburban enclaves of Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties remained unwaveringly red even during the Clinton years and it was starting to appear as though Colorado would join the rest of the Rocky Mountain West in “safe Republican” territory.  By 2004, college students in Boulder had consolidated behind Democrats in a way that hadn’t been the case in the recent past while GOP margins began noticeably softening in the affluent suburbs.  The transformation was completed in 2008 when most of those suburbs went comfortably for Obama (and Senate candidate Mark Udall), leaving virtually every corner of the Denver metropolitan area except the far southern exurbs of Douglas County painted blue.

5. Steubenville-Weirton, Ohio and West Virginia….One of the most difficult to understand political transformations of the last decade has been the shift of this dying, unionized steel region of eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia towards Republicans.  With the exception of Flint, Michigan, you’d be hard-pressed to find a population center in the country as economically devastated as the twin towns of Steubenville and Weirton, and the locals have responded by…..voting Republican.  I was first struck by the soft numbers Gore pulled in the region in 2000 and thought it was a fluke….culturally conservative Appalachian voters weary of the Clinton years and responding favorably to a “compassionate conservative” from Texas.  For that reason, I expected John Kerry’s biggest growth zone in the key battleground state of Ohio in 2004 would be the area around Steubenville, St. Clairsville, and East Liverpool, especially since Weirton Steel went broke in 2001 and the metro area had the highest loss of jobs of any place in the nation during Bush’s first term.  Boy was I wrong.  Kerry underperformed Gore in the area, and quite significantly.  In 2008, McCain won by double digits on the West Virginia side and Obama held on by a mere 50 votes in Jefferson County, Ohio (Steubenville).  Hard to see how the trendline reverses from where we are now.

4. Pittsburgh, Pennsylania….Most political aficianadoes would easily identify the San Francisco Bay Area as the nation’s most Democratic major metropolitan area, but throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, Pittsburgh had it beat.  Every county in and around Pittsburgh voted comfortably for Mondale and Dukakis in 1984 and 1988.  The margins seemed to peak in 1992 and then showed serious erosion in 1996.  Clinton won significantly fewer votes than he did in 1992 while Bob Dole won more votes than did George Bush in 1992, defying the nation trendline.  In 2000, Gore prevailed by even weaker numbers and lost Westmoreland County east of Pittsburgh, a county that had voted for Mondale 16 years earlier.  The metro-wide erosion continued for Kerry in 2004 and hit bottom in 2008, with Obama winning only Allegheny County in metropolitan Pittsburgh, losing Beaver County where Dukakis had won by a more than 2-1 margin in 1988, and getting trounced by 17 points in the former Mondale county of Westmoreland.  It would appear that cultural conservatism and diminished association with a unionized past is taking its toll in the Pittsburgh area much like the Steubenville-Weirton area a short drive down the Ohio River.

3. San Francisco Bay Area, California….It’s hard to believe that in 1984, only San Francisco, Alameda, and Marin Counties in the Bay Area voted for Walter Mondale, given how lopsidedly Democratic every county in the area is today.  The Bay Area officially surpassed Pittsburgh as the nation’s bluest major metropolitan area in the 1996 election, and the margins have only continued to grow since then to the point that Solano County in the region’s northeastern fringe was the region’s LEAST blue county in 2008.  Obama only won there by 63%!  Meanwhile the core old-line cities of the Bay Area (San Francisco, Oakland) are both supporting Democrats by more than 80% margins and the Silicon Valley regions of the southern Bay Area voted for Obama by 70% margins.  For anyone that may know, is there a single city, distant suburb, or small town in the Bay Area that voted McCain in 2008?

2. Orlando, Florida…..Florida was a very crimson shade of red in the 1980s Presidential elections, but the Orlando area was even redder than the state average back then.  Orange County, where the city and the core of the Orlando metro area are located, held strong even for Bob Dole in 1996 before narrowly making the leap to Gore in 2000, joining Osceola County (Kissimmee) just to its south.  While the area stagnated for John Kerry in 2004, I think its fair to say everybody was blown away by how deep a shade of blue the Orlando area turned this year for Barack Obama, taking Orange and Osceola Counties by nearly 20 points and falling only three points short in the northern suburban Seminole County, a long-standing Republican stronghold.  Considering that Obama’s performance in the Tampa-St. Petersburg and West Palm Beach-Fort Lauderdale regions of Florida only barely overperformed Gore and Kerry, it’s not an exaggeration to say that the Orlando area margins were the margin of difference for Obama in Florida this year.

1. Washington, D.C……We all know that the District of Columbia is the nation’s most Democratic jurisdiction and has been for decades now.  At least in the last two Presidential elections, there has not been a single U.S. county in any of the 50 states that has gone Democratic by as wide of margin as the District of Columbia.  But the real story is the reach of the D.C. area that has already transformed the political climates of two states and could end up changing a third in the foreseeable future.  The state of Maryland was the first to change.  Prince George’s County was always Democratic even during the Reagan years, but nothing approaching the 89% margin of victory that Obama scored there in 2008.  The transformation of Montgomery County into a nearly 3-1 Democratic stronghold, along with the more recent transformation of exurban Charles County, until 10 years ago a Republican stronghold, have helped make the state of Maryland an almost impenetrable fortress of Democratic Party might.  And in the last few years, the D.C. area has extended its political muscle into the state of Virginia.  The first signs of Democratic life came in 2000 in Fairfax County when Bush underperformed Bob Dole’s performance four years ago and barely eked out a victory.  Fairfax County was soon conquered, and soon after, Democrats managed to turn exurban outposts like Prince William and Loudoun Counties blue, a feat that would have been unthinkable in 2000.  But even with Maryland and Virginia on a strong blue trendline, the reach of the Washington, D.C. area still hasn’t been fully realized.  The next state that could be turned is West Virginia.  In the northeast corner of West Virginia, the state’s fastest-growing county (Jefferson County, an extension of exurban DC) turned blue this year by an impressive five-point margin.  Hard to imagine how the D.C. metro area can improve upon this in subsequent elections, but I continue to be awed every four years.

Any cities or metro areas I’m overlooking?  I’d love to hear supportive or contrarian thoughts.

With election day nearing on December 6th Obama has decided to cut a radio Ad for Carmouche.

This is Barack Obama.

Together we made history, but there is still one more important election in Louisiana on Saturday, December 6th.

Democrat Paul Carmouche is running for Congress.

To change America and to get Louisiana’s economy back on track – I need leaders like Paul Carmouche working with me in Washington. Let me tell you about Paul Carmouche. Paul is an effective and fair district attorney…who stood up for the victims of violent crime…Paul supports tax relief for the middle class and will work with me to create jobs and get Louisiana’s economy moving.

Paul Carmouche is the kind of leader we need in Washington…to make a difference for the people of Northwest Louisiana.

On Saturday, December 6th please support Democrat Paul Carmouche.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

http://online.wsj.com/article/…

Now he has a point that 2010 is likely to be better for Republicans but even if they get the average 23 seat net gain in the House that barely gets them back above 200 seats, if that.

Also, on reapportionment. Same old conservative spin that Michael Barone parrots in the latest Almanac – red states will gain House seats thus more electoral votes after the 2010 census. Problem for the GOP is that Florida is now a blue state and Arizona should be ripe for going to Obama in 2012 without McCain on the ticket. I also believe North Carolina is due to pick up at least one more seat which supports the idea that as states increase in population they become more open to Democrats due to urban growth.

Cross-posted at Election Inspection 

(Note: due to formating issues, I didn't post the charts here, to see how Obama did compared to Kerry, visit the Election Inspection link) 

I've actually been quite interested in doing a comparison of how Obama did compared to the last Democratic nominee (Kerry). Here's the difference between Obama and Kerry's margins in each state (for reference, I subtracted Kerry's margin from Obama's margin to get the final number, for example, if Obama's margin in California was 24 and Kerry's margin was 9, the equation would be 24-9=15).

Obviously, since Obama won the popular vote by 7, while Kerry lost it by 3, Obama is going to outperform Kerry almost everywhere, and speaking of, the only states where Obama did not outperform Kerry were in Alaska (-1), Arkansas (-11), Louisiana (-4), Tennessee, (-1), Oklahoma (0), and West Virginia. This, however, only tells us what we already know, Obama outperformed Kerry almost everywhere. A more important question to ask would be, where did Obama do better than Kerry relative to how the entire country did (to put it another way, we know that Kerry won California by 9 points, but he lost the national popular vote by 3 points, so Kerry actually ran 12 points higher in California than in the country, and Obama, who won California by 24 points but won the popular vote nationwide by 7 points, performed 17 points better than the country at large. Subtracting Kerry's performance in California compared to the country at large from Obama's same performance means California voted 5 points more Democratic relative to to the rest of the country than it did 4 years ago).

So how did Obama do in these other states compared to the national vote relative to Kerry?

(Follow link at the top for a look at the relative performance of Obama to Kerry in each state)

This gives us a much better picture of which states, in any given year, are moving more Democratic, and which ones are stalling out. Of course, it would be smart to keep in mind that some of these numbers have to be taken in context of home state effects of presidential and vice presidential candidates (Arizona, Alaska, Illinois, Hawaii, and Delaware are the home-states of McCain, Palin, Obama, and Biden respectively; while Texas, Wyoming, Massachusetts, and North Carolina are the home-states of Bush, Cheney, Kerry, and Edwards, if some people over/underperform in certain states and regions, it has to be taken in this context). The glaring exception to the home-state advantage here is North Carolina, where Obama performed three points better relatively to his popular vote standing than Kerry did (and could easily be attributed to the growth of the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area). The states where Obama had the highest outperformance of Kerry's standing were in Hawaii (+26), Indiana (+12), North Dakota (+9), and a three-way tie between Utah, Montana, and Nebraska (+7 each). Obama's top under-performances, by comparison, were in Arkansas (-21), Louisiana (-14), Alaska (-11), Tennessee (-11), with a tie between West Virginia and Oklahoma (-10 each). There are, of course, a bunch of others, but generally speaking, we can say that by comparison, Obama generally underperformed Kerry in the south and the northeast (the exceptions being Vermont, Virginia, Georgia, Delaware, Connecticut, and North Carolina), while he generally outperformed Kerry in the midwest and the west, particularly where there was a large Hispanic population (New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and California). Obama seemed to stick pretty close to Kerry's relative performance in Washington State, Oregon, and Iowa (in fact, it seems that compared to the country, Iowa seems to have a consistant Democratic lean, as it changed exactly zero relative to the country)

This has extremely important ramifications for both presidential and down-ticket races in the future, for example, three states which Obama won which Kerry did not (Ohio, Florida, and Iowa) might seem to be massive improvements for the Democrats compared to how Kerry did, but in actuality, Obama underperformed Kerry relative to the rest of the country in Florida and Ohio, while Iowa stayed the same relative to the rest of the country (that is to say, in both 2004 and 2008, Iowa was roughly three points more Democratic than the country at large) (of course, for Ohio, Kerry actually did relatively better than most Democrats normally do in Ohio, but it usually tends to vote slightly more Republican than the rest of the country, whereas Ohio voted slightly LESS Republican than the national vote in 2008). Now, relatively speaking, Obama tended to GREATLY outperform Kerry in the midwest (Obama's relative performance in Wisconsin was 2 points better, in South Dakota was 3 points better, in Nebraska it was 7 points better, and a full 9 points better(!)). Of course, Obama did, relatively speaking, underperform Kerry in Minnesota, but that might be more a function of McCain spending a dispropotionate amount of time and resources in Minnesota (one of the only places where McCain was significantly outspending Obama on both field organization and advertising). The places where Obama really outperformed Kerry though were in the southwest and the mountain west (Obama outperformed Kerry by 3 points in Colorado, 4 points in Idaho, 5 points in Nevada, 5 points in California, , 6 points in New Mexico, 7 points in Montana, and 7 points in Utah. Like I said above, Obama did tend to underperform in the south, but the three places where Obama outperformed Kerry are states which have strong implications for state-wide Democrats are in Georgia (+2), North Carolina (+3), and Virginia (+4). The other two big deals are California (which has become almost as Democratic as New York) and Indiana (which went from being 18 points more Republican than the country to being only 6 points more Republican).

Democrats are probably going to have a harder time getting elected in Southern states like Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, but strong Democrats are going to have a much easier time running in states like Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Furthermore, with California's gubenatorial race in 2010, if the Democrats don't rip each other apart like they did in 2006, they should have an extremely good chance at winning the governor's mansion, and controlling redistricting for the census.

Progressive Democrat gets endorsement from newspapers distributed throughout his district:

Coastal Empire News, publishers of Savannah Daily News, The Business Report & Journal and Coastal Family Magazine, is endorsing Savannah’s Bill Gillespie (D) for Congress to represent the 1st Congressional District over incumbent Jack Kingston (R).

Savannahian Bill Gillespie is a highly educated, fiscally conservative Democrat, a war hero of the Iraq War, a recipient of the Bronze Star and a candidate with a vision of how to bring jobs back to the 1st District in manufacturing, alternative energy and the timber industry.

And as for Jack “flag pin” Kingston:

It is painful to no longer endorse our friend, Jack Kingston. Many of us know Jack and his family personally and cherish their friendship and their public service. Jack Kingston is a good man, personally, but he has never had a viable or credible Democratic opponent to truly consider.

And these times force us to step back, and take a hard look at his actual voting record on critical issues including fighting all measures to set a timeline to get out of Iraq, his failure to fight runaway Federal spending as a member of the House Appropriations committee that develops the budget, his leadership in defense of Tom Delay and President Bush as well as Republican party smear campaigns this election cycle, and his failure to file his personal financial disclosure information due last May 15 even though he was up for re-election. These votes and others lead us to believe that it is time for a change in 1st District representation.

Frankly, Jack began to lose our support last Feb. 27 when he appeared on the Dan Abrams show and said it was okay to “question Sen. Barack Obama’s patriotism because he doesn’t regularly wear an American flag lapel pin.”

Problem was, sitting there on the TV set with the cameras rolling, Jack wasn’t wearing a flag pin. These types of smear tactics are repugnant and demean elected officials in an era when voters are begging for straight talk on the issues versus old-style personal attack politics.

Yet, he continues to use such tactics, seeking to smear his opponent Bill Gillespie in this race, accusing him of lying about his educational degrees and other achievements, despite two news organizations having confirmed that Gillespie’s resumé is accurate.

Much more in the endorsement, con Kingston and pro Gillespie. I thought I’d written a damning diary about Slappy and a glowing recommendation of Bill, but these guys have got me beat!

Concluding statement:

Bill Gillespie is a credible candidate and a man in touch with the needs of the military establishment in our region, which is a critical component of our local business economy.

To achieve a change, we must change.

All that and Bill Gillespie can fly!

Oh yeah: you can, too.

I spent hours writing this as a Daily Kos diary and virtually nobody read it, but I figured some around here would appreciate the regional specifics and hope some enjoy the read.

It appears incredibly likely at this point that Barack Obama will be elected President in nine days, and I’m excited as hell to see the county maps roll in on CNN and USA Today websites on election night to see how much more blue there is on the national county map than in 2000 or 2004, when more than 80% of the terrain was colored red.  It seems certain that Obama will dramatically improve upon the 582 counties and independent cities that John Kerry won in 2008, but I’m wondering how many of those 582 from last time will be lost.  The ideal would be none, but looking at polling data from several states, it seems likely that a number of them are at serious risk.  Details below the fold.

Alabama–11 counties went for John Kerry in 2004, all in a narrow belt of heavily black counties south of Birmingham.  The only two that might be at risk are Montgomery County and Russell Counties, both of which Kerry won narrowly.  My bet is that higher black turnout than what was seen in 2004 will keep those counties blue, but I’m skeptical whether Obama will pick up more than those 11 Alabama counties.

Alaska–no counties so I’m scarcely interested in their undefined “election districts”

Arizona–Right now it seems Obama is poised to overperform Kerry in McCain’s home state.  Kerry won four Arizona counties, all four of which seem near slam-dunks to shade blue again.  There aren’t too many likely candidates for pickups beyond those four though.

Arkansas–Here’s where Obama is likely to cede some territory.  Obama is underperforming Kerry in Arkansas polls, and given that there are some Yellow Dog Democrat strongholds in Arkansas that are more than 95% white, it seems unlikely that Obama will hold all 21 of Kerry’s counties.  Likely gone:  rural counties in the northeast such as Clay, Randolph, Lawrence, and Poinsett; and at least a few southern counties that aren’t majority black such as Little River, Hempstead, and Bradley.  High black turnout in some of the 30+% black turnout counties could help flip one or two 2004 Bush counties to Obama, but I’d bet against it.

California–Kerry won 22 counties in California, but with few exceptions, the CA counties will remain polarized.  I’m not anticipating Obama losing any of the Kerry counties, but only see a handful of opportunities to pick off Bush counties, such as Ventura County and San Joaquin County.

Colorado–Kerry won 19 Colorado counties in 2004, several more than Gore did, picking off a number of Rocky Mountain counties but losing ground in the Hispanic-heavy region in and around Pueblo.  I’m hoping Obama regains the footing with Latinos that Kerry lost in that region and pick off Huerfano and Alamosa Counties, but more important to Obama’s statewide victory is the need to improve upon Kerry’s performance in the Denver suburbs.  He needs to grow the Kerry margin in Adams County and pick off at least two out of three of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer Counties, all of which went narrowly Bush in 2004.

Connecticut–Kerry won seven out of eight but lost Litchfield County in the northwest corner of CT.  I think Obama will win that one back as Gore did in 2000.

Delaware–With Biden on the ticket, I’m hopeful Obama can win at least one of two of Republican-leaning Kent and Sussex Counties.  Fortunately for Dems, they can win handily with New Castle County up north, the one county Kerry won in Delaware.

Florida–Kerry pulled out only 11 Florida counties.  My sense is that Obama holds those 11 (although fast-growing St. Lucie County is a question mark), and will probably pick up several more battlegrounds, ideally both Pinellas and Hillsborough (along with possibly Flagler, a Gore county) in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area.  Osceola County near Orlando is an option, as are a few rural counties near Tallahassee with high black populations that have narrowly gone Bush in the past but may benefit from higher black turnout this year.  Whether this would be enough for Obama to win Florida remains a question mark.

Georgia–Kerry won 26 Georgia counties, which may sound impressive until you realize there are 159 counties in Georgia.  High black turnout and a hard-fought Senate race seem likely to expand the number of Obama counties, but mostly in rural regions of southwestern and east-central Georgia.  It’s doubtful that any of the more heavily populated Bush counties in Georgia will turn blue this year.

Hawaii–Kerry won all four counties, but only narrowly eked out the population center of Honolulu County.  Obama should vastly overperform in all four Hawaii counties.

Idaho–Kerry won only one county, Blaine County, which is where he skiied in Sun Valley.  That will go Obama this year, and I suspect Latah County, which includes the college town of Moscow, will as well.  Beyond that, the pickings will be mighty slim for blue territory this year.

Illinois–Kerry won only 15 of Illinois’ 105 (is that correct?) counties in 2004.  Needless to say, Obama will perform remarkably better than that.  But I’m not sure exactly how many more.  Will Obama win the long-standing GOP stronghold of Du Page County next to Chicago?  It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet money on it in a national election.  Overall, I’d bet that Obama wins slightly more than half of the Illinois counties, but expect a sea of red in the southern Illinois counties (the region south of St. Louis and Decatur, aside from a handful of Dem strongholds like Carbondale and Cairo).  Several of the southern Illinois counties went for Alan Keyes in 2004 and many more voted for Hillary Clinton in the primary.

Indiana–This one should be fun.  Kerry won only four Indiana counties, but even if we assume Obama falls a few points short of winning the state, alot more turf would turn blue since 2004.  I expect most of Indiana’s population centers would turn blue, including counties like Vigo (Terre Haute), St. Joseph (South Bend), Howard (Kokomo), Tippecanoe (Lafayette), and Delaware (Muncie).  It’s possible even hard-core conservative Allen County (Fort Wayne) could turn blue.  The wild cards that will determine if Obama wins or loses Indiana will be southern Indiana, including Vanderburgh (Evansville) and the north river Louisville counties of Clark and Floyd.

Iowa–Even when narrowly losing Iowa, Kerry still won 32 of Iowa’s 99 counties.  If Obama is ahead by double digits this year, expect him to win the “Harkin coalition” of 60-some counties, essentially everywhere but the western two tiers of counties, and a few outlying GOP bastions.  Southern Iowa thinks and votes like conservative northern Missouri, so Obama may fall short in most of the territory south of Des Moines.  Still, it seems very unlikely that any of Iowa’s 32 Kerry counties will go McCain.

Kansas–Kerry won two Kansas counties.  Those two are still solid, but Obama is unlikely to gain much ground, but could conceivably win Shawnee County (Topeka).

Kentucky–Not good.  Kerry won 12 counties out of 120 in 2004, all but one in culturally conservative eastern Kentucky coal country.  The only Kerry county I feel solid about regarding Obama’s chances is Jefferson County (Louisville), where polling internals suggest Obama is vastly overperforming Kerry and likely keeping the statewide margins in Kentucky in line with 2004.  That indicates Obama is underperforming elsewhere in the state, and the very eastern Kentucky counties that Kerry won, by more than 60% in three of those counties, are the places where Obama was most fervently destroyed in the primaries, pulling in as little as 5% in a couple of them.  That suggests a serious cultural disconnect in play and I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama lost all 11 of those east Kentucky Kerry counties.  If he wins any of them, I anticipate they would be the staunch Democratic counties of Elliott, Floyd, Knott, and Breathitt.  Obama’s only pickup opportunity in Kentucky would seem to be Fayette County (Lexington) or Franklin County (Frankfurt), but I wouldn’t bet on either of those.

Louisiana–This one’s completely up in the air due to Hurricane Katrina displacements.  There are conceivably a few heavy black Bush counties that could be picked off with a high African-American turnout, but I’m not optimistic that Obama will net much more than the 10 parishes Kerry won.

Maine–Kerry won 14 out of 16 Maine counties in 2008.  It seems tough to imagine the other two going into the Obama column this year, but I suppose Washington County would be possible.  I doubt McCain will gain any of the Kerry counties, but Penobscot County is possible given Kerry won it by a half-percentage point.

Maryland–Five of Maryland’s 23 counties, along with the independent city of Baltimore, are usually all the Democrats can hope to get in Maryland given the overwhelming Republican tendencies of the rural parts of the state.  Both Gore and Kerry won these six and these six alone.  Obama could conceivably pick off Anne Arundel County and maybe one of those soft GOP counties on the Eastern Shore like Somerset, but he won’t encroach into GOP territory too much.

Massachusetts–Kerry won all 14 Massachusetts counties, and Obama should do the same.  If any switch, it’ll be Plymouth or Barnstable Counties in the southeast, but I doubt that’ll happen.

Michigan–Kerry won only 15 out of Michigan’s 83 counties, but as is the case with most of the Upper Midwest, Obama is poised to really build upon that number and conceivably win an outright majority of those counties.  Bush won many of his Michigan counties with very soft margins, suggesting a partisan breeze of only five points in Obama’s direction will turn multiple counties blue, including populous counties such as Macomb, Monroe, and Calhoun, as well as large numbers of thinly populated rural counties in northern Michigan and on the Upper Peninsuala.

Minnesota–Kerry won 24 of Minnesota’s 87 counties, and demographics suggest Obama stands point to significantly grow upon that, again potentially winning an outright majority of Minnesota counties.  Internals from polls of North and South Dakota suggest Obama is winning the eastern farm counties of both states.  If that’s true, it likewise means Obama is winning the populist farm counties of western Minnesota, which Gore and Kerry both got smashed in.

Mississippi–Kerry won an impressive 24 counties in Mississippi, but don’t expect that to change much in 2008 simply due to the racial breakdown of those counties.  Obama is likely to grow Kerry’s margins in most of those 24 counties, most of which are majority black, but I’d be surprised if he picked off more than one or two of the 2004 Bush counties.

Missouri–Kerry won three counties and the city of St. Louis in Minnesota…out of 115 counties!!!  Obama will do better than that, but not significantly so.  There are a number of counties encircling metropolitan St. Louis that should be favorable turf.  Boone County (Columbia) seems like Obama territory, and possibly Buchanan County (St. Joseph) north of Kansas City.  Still, I’m not expecting more than 10 Missouri counties for Obama even if he wins the state.

Montana–Kerry won six Montana counties, all of which seem solid for Obama.  Beyond that, it’s not inconceivable to imagine Obama victories in populous (at least for Montana!) Yellowstone County (Billings), Cascade County (Great Falls), and Lewis and Clark County (Helena), along with rural counties like Hill and Blaine that are winnable for Democrats with high Native American turnout.

Nebraska–Kerry won one Nebraska county in 2004.  If Obama gets as many as five, he’ll have done better than any Democratic Presidential candidate in my lifetime.  Possible pickoffs:  rural Saline and Dakota Counties, Lancaster COunty (Lincoln), and conceivably but doubtful in my opinion, Douglas County (Omaha).

Nevada–Kerry won only Clark County in 2004, but narrowed the gap to four points in Washoe County (Reno).  Obama needs Washoe to win the state, and early indications are that he’s winning it, but none of the other 15 Nevada counties are likely to be in play.

New Hampshire–Kerry won six of 10 New Hampshire Counties in 2004, but not among them were the two most populous (Hillsborough and Rockingham).  With current trendlines, it seems as though Obama should win those two counties, but is still unlikely to win the other two Bush counties.

New Jersey–Kerry won 12 of New Jersey’s 21 counties, two fewer than Gore won in 2000.  Those 12 counties seem secure, and Obama could pick off the Gore county of Salem (increasingly Republican Gore County, Monmouth, seems like a stretch) but is unlikely to pick off any of the twice-Bush counties.

New Mexico–Kerry won 12 counties in New Mexico yet lost the state.  If Obama wins comfortably this time, as polls suggest he will, he’ll probably take a handful of additional counties and grow his margins in some of the soft Kerry counties, but I suspect most of the ranch counties in southern and eastern New Mexico will remain red.

New York–Kerry won only 21 New York counties, but I anticipate Obama is poised to overperform Kerry in a number of upstate New York counties (as well as win back Rockland County and Staten Island in metropolitan NYC), particularly those that went Gore in 2000.  McCain will still probably win close to half of the upstate New York counties though, particularly those out in Tom Reynolds and Randy Kuhl country.

North Carolina–Kerry won 20 out of 100 North Carolina counties in 2004, five fewer than Gore did four years earlier.  Expect Obama to win as many as 35, with several heavily black rural counties in eastern North Carolina having gone narrowly Bush in 2004 that will be easier picking this time.  Obama should dramatically grow his margins in the population centers, picking off two pretty significant prizes including Wake County (Raleigh, Cary) and Buncombe County (Asheville).

North Dakota–Kerry won only four of North Dakota’s 53 counties in 2004, but polling internals shows Obama is ahead in eastern North Dakota now.  It’s possible Obama could be the first Democratic Presidential nominee in my lifetime to win Cass County (Fargo) and Grand Forks County.  At the very least, expect Obama to win 15 or more counties in North Dakota, as several of those eastern ND sugar-growing counties should be favorable territory for him if the statewide race is as close as polls suggest.  A high native American turnout could turn the tide in a couple western North Dakota counties such as Mountrail, but for the most part, western ND will still be bright red.

Ohio–Very tough to call this one as polls are all over the place.  Kerry won only 16 Ohio counties, the same number as Gore won.  Obama has to do better than that to win the state.  A high black turnout in Cincinnati is very likely to flip Hamilton County blue and Lake County in the Cleveland suburbs seems like a decent bet to flip.  But if we’re to believe the polling median that Obama is 5-7 points ahead in Ohio, that would mean Obama is likely winning some of the southern Ohio counties like Scioto (Portsmouth) and Ross (Chillicothe) that are generally bellwethers for statewide victory in Ohio.  There’s too much conflicting information at this point, and the poll spread suggests Obama could win as few as 12-15 Ohio counties or as many as 30.

Oklahoma–Gore won nine Oklahoma counties in 2000….Kerry won zero.  Expect Obama to repeat Kerry’s performance.

Oregon–Kerry won only eight counties amongst a sea of territorial red in this blue state, but Obama’s poll leads in Oregon are so substantial than I suspect Obama will win double his number of county victories, though still mostly in the northwestern quadrant of the state.

Pennsylvania–Another state that’s difficult to call.  Kerry won only 13 counties here, ceding some territory that Gore won in western Pennsylvania.  If Obama is really winning Pennsylvania by 10 points as the polls suggest, he probably is winning all or most of those 13 Kerry counties and then some, but the conventional wisdom is that Obama is underperforming Kerry in western PA, and could end up losing the culturally conservative Kerry counties of Beaver, Washington, and Fayette.  That certainly is possible, particularly if we assume Obama’s margins in PA are entirely the product of his running up the score in suburban Philadelphia counties such as Montgomery, Delaware, and Bucks.  Tough to call, but I think we lose some Kerry counties in PA, but also pick up fast-growing Chester County in exurban Philadelphia for Obama.

Rhode Island–Kerry handily won all five Rhode Island counties.  Obama will do the same.

South Carolina–Kerry won 15 counties, most of them majority black.  Obama could win back two or three more with high black turnout, but I’m not expecting to grow the county map much within South Carolina.  The I-95 corridor will remain blue, the rest of the state will remain red.

South Dakota–Polling internals suggest Obama is ahead in northeastern South Dakota.  That means Obama is likely to improve upon the nine SD counties that went for Kerry (but keep in mind that several of the Indian reservation counties will have a lower turnout without a battleground Senate race on the ballot).  It’s conceivable Obama could win 25 counties in SD, since most of the Daschle coalition in eastern SD are smaller counties size way that tend to vote as a bloc.  I doubt Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls), now the destination for college Republicans across the country, will go blue, but expect other population centers like Brookings County (Brookings), Beadle County (Huron), and Brown County (Aberdeen) to either vote Obama outright or come very close to doing so if current polling is to be believed.

Tennessee–Gore won 36 of Tennessee’s 95 counties, Kerry halved that by 18, and if Obama is lucky, he’ll get by only halving Kerry’s numbers to nine counties this year.  Obama should hold population centers Shelby County (Memphis) and Davidson County (Nashville) along with a couple of heavily black rural counties in West Tennessee, but some of the Yellow Dog Democrat rural counties in West and Middle Tennessee that have slowly slipping away for 20 years, including Smith County, home of Al Gore’s hometown of Carthage, will probably turn red.  A handful of tiny deep blue counties such as Jackson, Houston, and Trousdale may stay blue, but I anticipate losing the majority of them.

Texas–Kerry won only 18 counties in Texas, but I’m anticipating Obama to do much better.  Several of the majority-Hispanic south Texas counties (like Cameron and Frio) went narrowly Bush in 2004, and I expect to win them back.  Several population centers in Texas could tip.  I’d bet heavily on Dallas County turning blue this year, as Kerry narrowly missed it in 2004, but beyond that, Bexar County (San Antonio) and Nueces County (Corpus Christi) are also within the realm.  We might be close in the big prize of Harris County (metropolitan Houston) but I still think Obama will fall short of victory. Overall, I’m betting on 30 or more Obama counties in Texas this year.  The bad news…he’ll still lose more than 200 of them.

Utah–Kerry didn’t win any counties in Utah, but I actually think Obama has a chance in three of them this year, including the big prize of Salt Lake County.  The youthful mountain counties of Grand and San Juan in the state’s southeast corner are more likely to flip though.

Vermont–Kerry won 13 of 14 counties in Vermont and Obama will probably win the same 13.  Tiny Essex County in the northeast corner of the state seems likely to remain red though.

Virginia–Kerry won 13 Virginia counties and 19 independent cities in Virginia, and Obama should win most if not all of those locales, with the possible exception of those two southwest Virginia coal counties which remain question marks.  The good news it that Obama is poised to win handily in the important places, namely fast-growing exurban NoVa counties Prince William and Loudoun, both of which would have been inconceivable to see turning blue in 2004.

Washington–Kerry won 12 counties in WA, all on or near the coast.  There are probably about five or six additional counties in play for Obama, again mostly in the western third of the state.  Spokane County used to be a pretty reliable Democratic county, even going for Dukakis in 1988, but seems way out-of-reach for Obama 20 years later.

West Virginia–Polls seem to have backslid a little bit in West Virginia in the last week, and I suspect the end result will be just as bad as Bush’s 13-point victory in the state in 2004.  My anticipation is that the county map will look a little different though.  Obama may likely pick off 2004 Bush counties in population centers like Kanawha County (Charleston) and Monongalia County (Morgantown), but I’m not confident he’ll hold too many of the southern WV coal counties that Kerry won, aside from possibly McDowell and Boone, the bluest two counties down there.  Overall, I’d be surprised if Obama got more than seven WV counties, compared to Kerry’s nine.

Wisconsin–Even though Kerry won by the skin of his teeth, he still managed to win 27 of Wisconsin’s 72 politically polarized counties.  There are probably about 15 more counties in play if Obama has a double-digit lead in Wisconsin as polls indicate.  Most of the Obama pickups are likely to be found in northwestern Wisconsin.

Wyoming–Kerry won one Wyoming County, Teton, and Obama will probably win that and that alone as well.  Albany County (Laramie) may have enough youth votes to turn blue.