Obama – Page 3 – Swing State Project

Note From Diarist: This diary is primarily about the Presidential campaign. I wrote it for Daily Kos but didn’t feel it got the exposure I was hoping for. It’s very much inside baseball politics so I thought it might have some fans around here, but it is about the Presidential campaign which I know is no longer the focus of the website. If the moderator wishes to delete it, I’ll understand.

Anybody following the horse race at all has a pretty good idea where the key battlegrounds are expected to be. My personal opinion is that the three markets that are most likely to determine the 2008 election winner are, in this order, Denver (including Boulder and Fort Collins), Detroit, and Northern Virginia. Beyond those three, there are at least a dozen markets in key battleground states that will be sucking up the vast majority of campaign resources in the next 50-some days until the election. That’s the way the game is played and always will be for as long as the Electoral College is a reality. My thought process this morning was dedicated to isolating some geographic hotspots that are perhaps under-the-radar of conventional wisdom yet could nonetheless be very productive investments of time and resources for the Obama campaign. The top-10 I came up with are listed below in descending order.

10. Flagstaff, Arizona–Because it’s John McCain’s home state, nobody expects Arizona to be a swing state in 2008. It probably won’t be, but the most recent poll released from the state showed McCain leading by only six in Arizona, a smaller lead than he held in the expected battleground state of Nevada. The Obama campaign needs to do some internal polling in Arizona and see if their findings reflect the recent polling of a single-digit McCain lead. If it is, I think it would be entirely worthwhile to pour some campaign dollars in the less-expensive media market of Flagstaff, which is already favorable Democratic terrain, and also to set up a campaign stop there. It would be very embarrassing for the McCain campaign if Obama went to the university town of Flagstaff and filled the streets with tens of thousands of screaming fans in McCain’s backyard. Obviously this is not something we’re likely to see in the closing weeks of the campaign, but for headfake value alone, it’s something worth doing in September.

9. Aberdeen, South Dakota–I’ve seen only one poll coming out of South Dakota, and it showed McCain with a scant four-point lead. I don’t expect Obama to win there, but I’m puzzled why the prospect of a competitive South Dakota is not even being discussed even when the polls are similar to those of North Dakota, which is a battleground. Aberdeen is a worthwhile target for a September campaign stop and television ads for a number of reasons. This is the Democratic part of South Dakota. Tim Johnson and Stephanie Herseth pulled out statewide victories in 2002 and 2004 by running up the score in the counties in and around Aberdeen. Given that the Democrats have adopted a much more friendly platform to controversial-everywhere-but-the-Corn-Belt biofuels than Republicans in 2008, Obama could pick off alot of GOP-leaning farmers in eastern South Dakota who don’t trust McCain’s commitment to agriculture. Beyond that, Obama could do a rally with hometown boy Tom Daschle and really make some connections to voters who were out of reach for Gore and Kerry. I’m not certain about particulars of the Aberdeen media market, but I suspect it would be one of the cheapest in the country for advertising, and cuts into portions of North Dakota making it even more useful.

8. Wheeling, West Virginia–I have a good friend who lives deep into the hollers of Logan County, WV, and still insists from her interactions that she believes Obama will win West Virginia. I suspect that puts her in a minority small enough to count on one hand, but I still think some outreach effort into West Virginia would be valuable, particularly in the Wheeling area. Obama essentially ceded West Virginia to Hillary in the primary, making only one campaign stop in Charleston on the eve of the primary. Voters there don’t know him, but I suspect that if more do, the margin for McCain in the state could potentially be far less lopsided than if he doesn’t set foot there. More importantly though, I think Wheeling is important for the same reason it was important for Kerry four years ago. The market cuts into Ohio and Pennsylvania, specifically the very blue-collar regions of Ohio and Pennsylvania where Obama has the most work to do to win over skeptics. I suspect campaigning in this area is something of a defensive move, meaning his best hope is probably to cut losses rather than win over Bush voters, but in the context of controlling losses within statewide races in OH and PA, the old adage that the best offense is a good defense certainly seems to apply.

7. Council Bluffs, Iowa–Each new round of poll numbers indicate that Iowa appears less likely to ultimately be a battleground state, with Obama managing double-digit leads in the state. Again, I surmise that the untold story accounting for Obama’s strong performance throughout the Corn Belt (even Indiana!) is ethanol, specifically McCain’s previous hard-line opposition to it. The reason Council Bluffs is a secret weapon is twofold. It’s location in the heavily Republican southwest side of Iowa means the Obama campaign is on offense there, competing for traditionally Republican votes in western Iowa, but also competing for votes in Omaha, Nebraska, just across the Missouri River from Council Bluffs. We don’t hear much anymore about the prospect of Obama winning one (or even two) of the electoral votes in eastern Nebraska, and it remains a longshot. Nonetheless, raising Obama’s presence in western Iowa will have spillover effect in Omaha and the corn farmers surrounding it in Nebraska, leaving the prospect of robbing McCain of a Nebraska electoral vote on the table while simultaneously running up the score in Iowa.

6. Durango, Colorado–Chances are, the suburban doughnut surrounding Denver will decide who wins Colorado’s nine electoral votes, but if the race is as close there as most suspect it will end up being, smaller Colorado markets loom large. The fast-changing demography of Colorado was abundantly clear in the 2004 election, and perhaps no place was the change more obvious than Durango, formerly a Republican stronghold in Colorado’s southwest corner, where population growth is apparently fronted by left-leaning young people drawn to the area’s ski culture. I believe there were only five counties in America that Bill Clinton never won in 1992 or 1996, but where John Kerry won in 2004. La Plata County, Colorado, home of Durango, was one of them. If we assume that the trendlines that had clearly transformed Durango in 2004 have continued, Obama should be able to grow upon Kerry’s margin rather significantly in the area in 2008. The fact that neighboring battleground state New Mexico is a few miles south of Durango is an an additional bullet point for its utility.

5. South Bend, Indiana–Congressman Joe Donnelly showed us the potential northern Indiana holds for Democrats if we simply try there. The lesson appears to be learned as Indiana is deemed a battleground state in 2008. South Bend strikes me as the most consequential market in Indiana. Notre Dame University gives Obama a youthful base of operation while simultaneously providing Obama an outreach to Catholic voters, a demographic long cited as one of his most difficult to reach. The South Bend market also reaches into southwestern Michigan, and despite fairly encouraging polls of late, I think Obama will ultimately need all the help in can get in Michigan. Probably outside of the South Bend market but still worthy of mention is another Indiana town in Joe Donnelly’s Congressional district, Kokomo. This is a blue-collar factory town that Democrats should be winning, but rarely do. Voters in Kokomo may be some of the most likely to swing if the Obama campaign reaches out to them in a serious way.

4. Elko, Nevada–In 2004, it seemed like John Kerry was spending more time in Republican-leaning Reno than in Democratic-leaning Las Vegas. I didn’t really understand it at the time, until I saw the election returns and noticed Kerry had significantly cut into the GOP’s advantage in Reno and surrounding areas. The reason Kerry lost Nevada was that he got absolutely destroyed in rural Nevada. Obama, by contrast, beat Hillary in most rural Nevada counties, meaning there’s at least a basis for thinking he could overperform Kerry in places like Elko. Campaigning and advertising in Elko would really be taking Kerry’s 2004 effort to go on offense in Reno to the next level. Considering Kerry got less than 20% of the vote in Nevada’s fourth most populous county, worse than both Mondale and Dukakis did back in the day, there’s easily room for improvement in the area, and even a little improvement upstate Nevada could be the difference in the state.

3. Cincinnati, Ohio–Now considering Cincinnati is the third-largest media market in what is considered perhaps the most critical battleground state, calling for an Obama campaign presence there is on the surface a no-brainer, but most importantly, I see metropolitan Cincinnati as the region of Ohio where Obama is best-positioned to make gains over John Kerry. Kerry narrowly lost Hamilton County (home of the city of Cincinnati and the core of its suburbs), but with a high African-American turnout in 2008, I strongly expect the county to turn blue. Just as important are the three crimson red exurban counties surrounding Cincinnati, which accounted for Bush’s entire margin of victory in Ohio in 2004. In every election since 2004, the needle has moved dramatically against Republicans in all of these counties (Butler, Clermont, and Warren), with Jean Schmidt, Ken Blackwell, and Mike DeWine, all badly underperforming traditional GOP margins in the area. If Obama can keep this trendline going and trim his losses by a few percentage points in suburban Cincinnati, it will go a long way towards offsetting his likely underperformance in the rural portions of Ohio. And to whatever extent the Cincinnati market is an outreach into Indiana is also a feather in our cap.

2. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula–With the racial polarization of metropolitan Detroit, enflamed by the Kwame Kilpatrick scandal, and Obama’s call for tougher CAFE standards fiercely opposed by Detroit automakers, the McCain campaign has some serious ammunition against Obama to take into Michigan. I fully expect Obama will underperform Gore and Kerry in metropolitan Detroit. With that in mind, the thought process should become where we can pick up additional votes in Michigan to offset the possible hemorrhaging in the population centers. To that end, it seems like a no-brainer for Obama to take his campaign up north…way up north. The blue-collar Upper Peninsula of Michigan is sparsely populated, but its demographics seem to align with other Midwestern areas that are Obama-friendly. More to the point, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan looks like Wisconsin, thinks like Wisconsin, and votes like Wisconsin. When you look at Obama’s healthy standing in Wisconsin polls compared to Kerry four years ago or Gore’s eight years ago, my thinking is that every Obama campaign rally that begins in Green Bay should make the quick drive to Marquette, Michigan, from there.

1. Fargo-Moorhead (North Dakota/Minnesota)–I suspect there is no other media market in the country where the needle will move more significantly in Obama’s favor compared to 2000 and 2004 than Fargo-Moorhead. To the extent that North Dakota has already been identified as a battleground state, Obama’s campaign already has a presence in the area, but may nonetheless not appreciate just how many things are working to their candidate’s favor here. First of all, the cities of Fargo and Moorhead are islands of youth in a region otherwise dominated by gray hair. That cuts to Obama’s advantage demographically. Furthermore, in addition to Obama’s more farmer-friendly stand on biofuels, the Democrats have an additional ace-in-the-hole here because the region is one of the nation’s top sugar-growing areas. The sugar industry has enjoyed its relative “cartel” status and has become decidedly protectionist since the passage of CAFTA in 2005, a vote which helped every Democrat on the ticket in Minnesota in 2006 score landslide margins in the Red River Valley. Particularly on the Minnesota side, this area is historically Democratic, even though both Gore and Kerry were destroyed here. This advantage on both sides of the river extends further to the Grand Forks area, a region of North Dakota where every Democrat needs to win big in a competitive statewide race. It’s expected that Minnesota is leaning heavily Obama, but don’t underestimate the pseudo-maverick image of John McCain fooling alot of moderate suburbanites in Minneapolis-St. Paul. That raises the stakes for Obama’s need to win in places like the Red River Valley, which early indications suggest he is poised to do.

United Democratic Party Money Bomb

From the about section of the ActBlue page I’ve created:

Despite the self-important screechings of the traditional media, the hurt feelings and ruffled feathers of the primary season are not insurmoutable. Hillary and Bill Clinton have worked to unite the Democratic Party with their rousing convention speeches and gracious support of Obama during the delegate voting process. Now it’s time to reward Hillary for being a team player by helping pay off her campaign debt.

And while we’re at it, lets give Barack Obama, who was equally gracious in victory, the funds he needs to expand the map, create coattails for down-ballot races, and end the conservative governing that thinks that all social issues are due to gays, Atheists, Hollywood, and working women, that the way to solve all economic ills are tax cuts for the super rich, and that war will solve all of America’s international problems.

We’ve noted with glee that Obama is advertising in states like Alaska and Georgia and opening campaign offices in states like Indiana. And this strategy of expanding the map and out-organizing McCain will yield results in down ballot-races as well. An Obama get out the vote operation in Georgia helps Senate candidate Jim Martin. Organizing in Alaska helps make the words “Senator Begich” or “Representative Berkowitz” possible.

Let this unified party money bomb:

http://www.actblue.com/page/un…

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Weekly Update — August 24, 2008

And the Winning Ticket Is — Obama / Biden 08:

Barack Obama made an excellent choice with his selection of Delaware Senator Joe Biden to be his running mate. On Saturday I spent the day working at the Democratic booth at the Centre County Grange Fair and throughout the day people were asking if the announcement had been made. Everyone I spoke with expressed positive opinions about the choice. If this is any indication of the type of qualified people Barack Obama will surround himself with as President, we can all rest assured that our country will be headed in a better direction come January of 2009.

Obama-Biden 08

The daily trivia question at the Democratic booth was “What Pennsylvania town was Joe Biden’s hometown?” I’m usually pretty good at trivia but Kim Bierly had to tell me the answer was Scranton PA.

Another Busy Week In The Books:

We put quite a few miles on the campaign Jeep this week. On Tuesday, we were in attendance to hear Governor Rendell speak at the CBICC luncheon in State College. It was exciting to hear Governor Rendell speak about the alternative fuels projects going on in Clearfield County. He also mentioned that the BioEnergy project is the single biggest economic development project in the history of Clearfield County at over $250 million.

On Wednesday, we traveled west in the morning to visit Venango County for several meetings, then, we headed east to State College to attend the Penn Ag Democratic picnic. Below is a picture from the Penn Ag picnic with L-R Doug Kilgore, Greg Stewart, Rep. Mike Hanna, Mark McCracken, Rep. Scott Conklin and Sec. of Agriculture Dennis Wolf.

Penn Ag Democratic Picnic

On Friday, we attended the opening of the Clinton County Democratic Headquarters. There was a very nice crowd on hand to hear from Sen. John Wozniak, Rep. Mike Hanna, Commissioner Joel Long, Commissioner Adam Coleman and Mayor Rick Vilello.

Sharing the stage with these leaders who represent Clinton County on the state, county and local level gave me the opportunity to speak about how I want to be a close working partner with other elected officials. As a county commissioner this is something I feel has been lacking in the 5th district and is something I will change when I’m elected to Congress.

Saturday at the Centre County Grange Fair was an outstanding day that started off early with the monthly Centre County Democrats breakfast. We got the chance to speak with people from throughout the 5th district that were at the fair. Also, WPSU filmed a walk around the fairgrounds segment with me. We got a lot of great footage that will appear on a program WPSU is doing about campaigning at the fair. The highlight of the walk around segment was meeting with a lady who told me she just turned 91 and has only missed Grange Fair twice in her life.

The week ended at Treasure Lake in DuBois for an Obama supporter’s picnic on Sunday afternoon. The folks at the picnic were still excited about the selection of Senator Biden and all Democrats are excited about the convention in Denver.

The Week Ahead:

On Thursday, a representative from the campaign will be attending “Obama Watch Parties” for Obama’s big speech at the DNC Convention. We will be making stops in Ridgway, DuBois, and Clearfield. Come for the party and stay for the politics. We will be handing out literature and campaign signs for supporters.

The big event for the week is the WPSU Town Hall Meeting that will be filmed Tuesday at 5:45 at the Grange Fair. It will be aired on WPSU on September 4th and will probably be aired several times before Election Day. If you are at the Grange Fair on Tuesday, plan to stop by and take part in the Town Hall Meeting.

Upcoming Fundraising Event:

Keith Bierly is planning the WE’RE BACKIN’ McCRACKEN GOLF CLASSIC to be held on September 22nd beginning at 8 AM at the Belles Springs Golf Course in Clinton County. The tournament will feature LPGA TOUR player Jackie Gallagher-Smith. The entry fee will be $92.00 per player, or, $300.00 for a foursome. Sponsoring a hole will also be $92.00. There will be an ongoing cookout throughout the final nine holes.

A brochure with all the details will follow in early September. The tournament is 4 weeks from tomorrow – Monday – the 22nd. Belles Springs is conveniently located less than one mile off of Interstate 80 at the Lock Haven Exit. Make you plans now to attend. Contact Keith Bierly at keithbierly@yahoo.com for more details and to make your reservation.

Yard Signs Are Now Available:

For the time being, we want to concentrate on getting the signs displayed in yards only. Closer to Election Day we will concentrate on getting signs out in public view. If you would like a sign for your yard, please email the campaign at mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net, call 765-6821 or speak with members of the campaign staff.

We look forward to seeing out on the campaign trail.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Weekly Update — July 27th, 2008

A busy week campaigning across the 5th district:

The highlight of the past week was the opening of the Centre County Democratic Campaign Headquarters in State College. Over 200 people were on hand to celebrate the opening that included a round of rousing speeches from candidates and campaign representatives including Greg Stewart and Jay Paterno for the Obama campaign, Auditor General Jack Wagner, State Representative Scott Conklin and candidate for state representative Joanne Tosti-Vasey. I want to thank and congratulate Centre County Democratic Chair Diane Gregg, Greg Stewart, Ben Flatgard and everyone else involved in getting the headquarters up and running. Having a facility like this in downtown State College is going to be a tremendous help to all the candidates and the people who are working on the campaigns.

This week I made a trip to Harrison Valley in Potter County for Tioga / Potter Counties Farm Bureau picnic. I got the chance to field some questions on issues that concern the farming communities in a rural part of the district. Not surprisingly, the subject of natural gas drilling that is going on throughout the district also came up.

The weeks events also included a visit to New Bethlehem for the Clarion County Fair, to Pleasant Gap in Centre County for a parade and to Oil City in Venango County also for a parade. The week concluded with Kelly and I attending Dan Surra’s “Night at the Races” annual fundraiser Saturday evening and on Sunday I attended the AFL-CIO regional trap shoot held at the Fox Township Sportsman’s Club in Elk County.

The coming week will close out July and we’ll be into August with 3 months to go until Election Day.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

How Car Magnets Can Help Progressive Candidates and Causes

My mom’s inspiration for a new business came from her nonprofit management and fundraising classes. The idea: to have charities use car magnets to energize their supporters and raise money and awareness of their causes. Car magnets, she thought, could transform people’s cars into forums for engaging their communities. So we set out to create affordable magnets whose convenience, production values, and image quality would blow bumper stickers out of the water. When we started the business this year, everyone asked us, “why don’t you do political magnets too?” So we did. We designed a line of Barack Obama magnets – both with the campaign’s slogans and typefaces and with artists’ and designers’ original designs. We’re reaching out to congressional candidates in competitive races now. I think that car magnets can powerfully amplify the message of progressive causes, particularly for candidates running in expensive, uphill races. I would love to have your feedback about how you think we could help progressive candidates and causes.

We are currently negotiating licensing agreements to create and sell magnets for some major nonprofit organizations, including a number of zoos, aquariums, and museums. Nonprofits and charities are still the keystone of our long-term plans. We also do custom magnets for just about anything, no matter how small the order – we’re creating lines of car magnets for local businesses and even a local children’s soccer team. But everywhere we talked about our business, people asked us the same question: “why aren’t you making political stuff?” Good question! The 2008 political scene, particularly Barack Obama’s campaign, is generating historic levels of political engagement. So, in May, we threw ourselves into creating political magnets. We focused on Obama, naturally. We incorporated some of the campaign’s (non-copyrighted) themes, like Gothic font and “Change We Can Believe In.” We also commissioned designers and artists to create original Obama artwork and designs. And our stuff looks good, if I do say so myself.

Now here’s why I think car magnets can really help progressive activists and causes. Reaching out to voters through local volunteers is the best way to Get-Out-The-Vote (see Obama, Barack and http://www.prospect.org/cs/art… The reason why is simple. People trust their friends, their neighbors, and even their fellow commuters far more than any advertisement. And authenticity and trust are the keys to winning someone over and generating enthusiasm – in politics, in nonprofit fundraising, in life. Displaying a car magnet announces that you not only volunteered but paid to raise awareness about your favorite museum or charity or political campaign. That creates a real personal connection between you, the driver, and the viewer, your audience. With the personal touch a car magnet gives your message, you can powerfully demonstrate the grassroots enthusiasm behind your favorite causes.

Moreover, car magnets’ physical qualities and communication style help them powerfully amplify a progressive message. Most Americans spend over 15 hours a week in their cars – over two hours a day! And they pay attention to their surroundings. A good car magnet can hit many thousands of viewers a day. A car magnet never stops working – downtown, highways, arterials, parking lots, shopping centers, even at home. And unlike a TV ad or a door-to-door salesman, a car magnet doesn’t invade people’s time or personal space, which people really appreciate. Plus, people tend to recoil from bumper stickers, fearing their permanence, low production values, and one-time-only use. Car magnets have none of those problems – their easy-on, easy-off quality gives people huge possibilities for creativity. People remember the written word well, but they remember an image-based message – a picture, a logo, an artistic design – even more well. I think there is a huge, untapped demand for what car magnets can offer, and that they can contribute enormously to progressive causes.

Many of our hopes rest on creating viral and word-of-mouth enthusiasm. Our Holy Grail demographic target is high-awareness voters, especially activists and political campaign donors. We want to reach these people through the Netroots. We are also contacting high-intensity Congressional campaigns too, particularly those involving Netroots darlings like Scott Kleeb and Rick Noriega.

So I would love to hear your comments and thoughts on our car magnet business. I haven’t included our business’s name or website address in this diary because I didn’t want to violate online community etiquette. So I have some questions for readers. First, are people here interested in what our car magnet business can do for progressive causes? How would people here react to me creating diaries discussing the car magnets (Obama, congressional candidates, etc.) that we sell on our website? Would that be taboo? If we bought advertising and became a sponsor of this blog, would we have more legitimacy in creating self-promoting diaries? Are there any progressive, nonprofit, or charitable organizations that you support and care about that would benefit from promoting themselves by distributing car magnet to their supporters? We enjoyed an overwhelmingly positive reaction to our Obama magnets at places like our state Democratic Convention and the Obama “Unite for Change” house parties. But we know that face-to-face and online work in different ways. So any advice at all would be hugely appreciated.

Here’s one last thing I would like your feedback on. We sell car magnets of both Democrats and Republicans – McCain along with Obama, Republican candidates along with Democratic candidates. Here’s our reasons why: first, we wish to encourage civic and community engagement for everyone – progressive, liberal, moderate, conservative, independent, or whatever – as long as it’s respectful and positive. We think increasing civic engagement enriches our communities and our lives. Second, we think that becoming a partisan website would endanger our ability to help nonprofits and charities. Nonprofits and charities, above all else, must seem like honest brokers to fundraise effectively, and associating with partisan websites would alienate large segments of the population.

If you’ve made it this far, thank you from the bottom of my heart for reading so much. I’ve always been impressed by the spirit of civic engagement expressed on Netroots websites like this one, and I’d love to hear what you have to say.

Decatur7@gmail.com

New Texas Poll Shows Noriega Close

The Rick Noriega campaign has sent out a fundraising email citing a recent poll that shows him trailing the incumbent Big John Cornyn by only 2%, among adults and with a large undecided vote.

more below the fold

Link to the source:

http://www.texaslyceum.org/med…

Freshman U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, leads Democratic challenger Rick Noriega in the poll, but the margin is slim and a large number of voters haven’t made up their minds. Cornyn had the support of 38% of the likely voters in the survey, to Noriega’s 36%, with 24% saying they’re not committed to either candidate.

Oh, you were probably wondering about that other race, too.

Republican John McCain would beat Democrat Barack Obama in Texas if the race were held now. But a significant number of Texans said they haven’t picked a favorite yet. Among likely voters, McCain had the support of 43% of those polled to 38% for Obama. Libertarian Bob Barr and independent Ralph Nader had about 1% each. One of every six voters – 17% – said they haven’t decided who will get their vote in November.

Obviously they didn’t lean on the leaners, but that’s O.K. with me this early in the campaign. (It’s from June 12-20, with 1,000 respondents, 8 of 10 said they were registered to vote.)

I’m really excited to see so many voters with an open mind on this race. Lessee, now all Noriega needs is $20 million for a massive media effort. He just might get the money. A poll that shows him trailing by only two points and Obama within five, that makes Texas a real battleground state.

It’s only one poll, I know, I know. But I like it!

PA-05: McCracken for Congress – Progress Report – Sen. Durbin in Clearfield!

IF IT’S TUESDAY, THIS MUST BE BELLEFONTE:

The headline says it all as it was a very busy and sometimes hectic week. I started out the week Sunday and Monday in Harrisburg where I was attending the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania spring conference. I really wish I could have been in State College to see Senator Barack Obama’s historic visit to Penn State but, I had already scheduled to attend the CCAP conference several weeks ago. I’ve heard from people who attended and they were all still buzzing late in the week from the rally.

I left Harrisburg Monday afternoon to attend the Lycoming County Democratic Dinner in Williamsport on Monday evening. Lycoming County Chair Jessie Bloom put together a fantastic event that was so well attended they filled up 2 rooms with Democrats who are excited about 2008.

Lycoming County is split between the 5th and the 10th congressional districts. As I was working the rooms, I shook hands with one gentleman who apologized and said “sorry, you just wasted a handshake, I’m from the 10th district”. I countered back to him, “No, it wasn’t wasted, if I met a Democrat who is going to be working to get Democrats elected in 2008 that was good enough for me”. All the candidates in attendance got the chance to speak and Auditor General Jack Wagner was the keynote speaker for the evening.

Tuesday brought 2 events in Centre County with an afternoon forum for the 5th District Democratic candidates at the Foxdale Retirement Community in State College. Art Goldschmidt moderated the event and the residents asked many important questions.

Then it was on to Bellefonte for a candidate’s forum with the 3 Democratic candidates taking center stage from 6:30 to 7:30 with the Republicans getting their chance from 8:00 to 9:30.

Wednesday brought an early morning trip to Clarion for legislative breakfast sponsored by the Clarion Chamber of Commerce. This event had 16 candidates, 5 for the PA House seat being vacated by Rep. Fred McIllhatten and 11 of the 12 candidates for the 5th District seat. Wednesday evening had us back in Centre County for the League of Women Voters debate. Again, the Democratic candidates went first from 7:00 to 8:00 with the Republican candidates following. Is it wrong to think the Republican candidates had viewers tuning out in favor of American Idol both nights?

Also on Wednesday, we released the news that both the IBEW Local #5 and the Ironworkers Local #772 have endorsed my candidacy. It is important to me that we get endorsements from organizations that represent the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

You can read the endorsement letters here!

Thursday we had the Jefferson County Democratic spring banquet in Reynoldsville followed by a candidate forum for the Democratic candidates at the IBEW building in Clearfield.

Friday brought an important visitor to Clearfield County as US Senator Richard Durbin, the Assistant Majority Leader (also known as the Majority Whip), stopped in Clearfield and DuBois to support the Obama for President campaign. It really is an exciting time for Democrats in central Pennsylvania as we are getting real attention from the presidential campaigns for the first time in my lifetime.

The longest day of the week was Saturday. I was up a 5:15 AM to drive to Warren for a Democratic breakfast at 9:00 AM. I found my theme that communities in the 5th district share many similarities took a new twist on Saturday morning. The Clearfield County Courthouse sets at the corner of Second and Market streets and, believe it or not, the building where the Warren County breakfast was held was on the corner of Second and Market streets. I pointed this coincidence out and the crowd got a chuckle from my observation. I shared the microphone with 3 of the candidates running for the 3rd congressional district along with fellow 5th district candidate Rick Vilello. We also heard from Jeff Eggleston for the Obama campaign and Congressman Marion Berry for the Clinton campaign.

Then it was on to Clarion for a League of Women Voters debate at Clarion University at 2 PM. Rick Vilello and I shared the stage with 7 of the 9 Republican candidates for a joint debate. Rick and I did the Democratic party proud as we addressed the issues important to the hard working people of the district. The event concluded with a brief verbal skirmish between 2 of the Republican candidates during the closing statements. I was very pleased when the Clarion County Democratic Chairman and several people in the audience came up and congratulated both of the Democratic candidates for our performances.

Saturday ended in Ridgway with the Elk County Democratic Spring Banquet. Kelly joined me in Ridgway to hear 2 keynote speakers, Congressman Marion Berry representing the Clinton campaign and Jay Paterno representing the Obama campaign. And, I can’t forget to mention that Victor Ordonez represented the campaign in Mifflin County for their spring dinner on Saturday evening. A big thank you to Victor for making the trip to Lewistown. It would have been impossible to do the debate in Clarion and also make it to Lewistown.

It was a long day to end a long week but I feel our campaign made great progress over the last 7 days. The only downside to this is the reality that campaigning in such a large district is taking a toll on the family life. Kelly and I knew what we were getting into back in January but it is difficult now that we are in the middle of the campaign. April 22nd is coming fast and it will be nice once the outcome is known. Either we will be campaigning through November or life will settle back down.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

Pennsylvania: An Obama Lead?

cross-posted from Election Inspection.

The latest Pennsylvania primary polls show a lot of movement towards Obama:

Pollster	Date	Obama	Clinton
PPP	3/31-4/1	45	43
Quinnipiac	3/24-3/31	41	50
SUSA	3/29-3/31	41	53
Rasmussen	3/31	42	47
ARG	3/26-3/27	39	51

Analysis below the flip.

Compared with the previous result from each pollster, all except ARG show a net gain for Obama:

PPP: Obama net gains 28 from two weeks prior

Quinnipiac: Obama net gains 3 from two weeks prior

SUSA: Obama net gains 7 from three weeks prior

Rasmussen: Obama net gains 5 from one week prior, 8 from 3/12, and 10 from 3/5.

ARG: Obama net loses 1 from 19 days prior.

PPP published an article immediately before they released their PA poll today touting their accuracy in prior contests like Texas and Ohio. Looks to me like they’re trying to protect their reputation in the face of the fact that today’s poll and the prior one in the state are major outliers in opposite directions. In other words, let’s discount PPP for now; and ARG while we’re at it, since ARG polls tend to be way off until the final day of the contest. That leaves a spead of 5, 9, and 12, which is right in line with my analysis from Monday suggesting that as things stand today, Clinton would win Pennsylvania by 5-15 points. However, the trending suggests that the race continues to tighten, and if this continues, Clinton will win Pennsylvania by single digits, if at all.

And as I’ve said previously, a single digit win in Pennsylvania will make any suggestion that she could win this nomination sound mathematically ridiculous instead of merely far-fetched. Clinton’s campaign should be in full panic mode by this point, because this is their last chance and it is slipping away.

Election Inspection’s current delegate breakdown: Clinton 55, Obama 48

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FL and MI Presidential

It’s reached the point in Florida and Michigan where neither remaining candidate in the Democratic Party Marathon is even trying to sound reasonable, much less presidential. Hillary Clinton is arguing the unsupportable position that the original primaries should count, as originally formatted, even though they were held in opposition to party rules and with the understanding by all candidates that they would not count.

Obabma is arguing an equally unsupportable position that, because the political powers in the two states (and in Florida, this means the Republican-controlled legislature) broke the rules, the people of two of the largest and most critical states should be disenfranchised with regard to the party nominee.

normboyd40 :: Methinks I Smell Raw Politics: Boyd’s eye View

I have two thoughts on this issue. First, a pox on both their houses. Let the contest go as it is going. Let them get to the convention, refuse to allow the superdelegates to vote, and nominate Al Gore on the second ballot, with John Edwards as his running mate. (Or John Edwards, with Wesley Clark or Bill Richardson)

Second, stop the stupid squabbling. Hillary – get over it! The original primaries may have seemed like a dream come true for you, but that’s because they were a dream. In the sense of not associated with reality. Get over it!

Obama, knock off the pontificating. It makes YOU look stupid when you talk to us like WE are stupid. Of course, you would love to ignore two states that may just vote for your opponent, but don’t stand there, as “candidate for all the people, all the time” and then say the millions of Dems in these two super-sized states can be ignored. Your camp says “There are serious concerns about security and making sure that everyone gets to vote”. But then you say that the better alternative is to simply guarantee that nobody gets to vote.

So, both of you are exposed for just what you are. Typical machine politicians ready to do anything at all for a victory. Yes. it is true, I will still vote for one of you, if that’s how it ends up, but only because the alternative is unthinkable. No longer will I be able to cast my vote proudly and happily for someone I see as a great American and a potentially great President. No, I will be voting to end the Bush years, to avoid the Bush Lite ascendancy, and get us out of Iraq and back into the rule of law and reason.

A plausible solution for Florida and Michigan has been waved in our faces by a Democrat who, quite frankly, isn’t the most progressive or most loyal to Democratic causes, Sen. Bill Nelson. He would like to tweak the system to favor his candidate, naturally enough, but that can be dealt with. Florida and Michigan have enough big money Democrats to finance this do-over as a mail-in primary. Don’t tell me the US Mail is less trustworthy than Dieboldt Corporation. We can do this. We can do it fairly and efficiently, and we can get a nominee. If not, go back to my first scenario and draft either Al or John.

Oh, and Gov. Dean? May we humbly suggest going back to winner-take-all primaries next cycle? God, I hate it when the GOP is more competent that we are.

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