Tag: Baron Hill

Sorry about the title, I was going for something more creative and that is a bit blah. However the title does explain the overview of this diary. This election cycle was expected to be as boring as can be for Indiana yet a series of retirements and resignations changed it. Indiana contains many important elections and promises to be an entertaining year. I will try and provide an overview of all of our elections and even provide predictions. I hope you enjoy!

IN Senate

When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth is the absolute best person to take on Coats. He is young, energetic and actually lives in Indiana. He is running as an outsider as well, instead of talking about his tenure in Congress he focuses on his time as Sherriff. Ellsworth is solidly against gun control whereas Coats seems to favor it. Ellsworth will likely get a solid number of Republicans who are dissatisfied with Coats. This race has yet to truly take off yet but when it does it will be close, very close. Please do not write Indiana off. Go ahead and give it a Republican lean for now if you want but understand a lot will change when the campaign begins. Please read Ellsworth’s campaign report that includes some encouraging poll results.

http://www.ellsworthforindiana…

Prediction

Ellsworth -50%

Coats-47%

Other-3%

IN-01

Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us.

Prediction

Visclosky-67%

Leyva-33%

(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)

IN-02

Joe Donnelly is a nice enough guy. I have only met him once but he seemed friendly. Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. He actually beat a somewhat solid candidate in 08, garnering nearly 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! They nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Jackie is a state representative and former reporter. Do to the nature of the district it is not impossible for Jackie to pull an upset but I highly doubt it. I would put it at lean D.

Prediction

Donnelly-55%

Wolarski-45%

IN-03

I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned a bit ago after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who just ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t. The one positive is that Stutzman primary supporters will probably show up greater in November and may still be mad enough their guy lost to Coats that they may vote Ellsworth.  

Prediction

Stutzman-56%

Hayhurst-44%

IN-04

Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.

Prediction

Rokita-66%

Sanders-34%

IN-05

Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gizillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.  

Prediction

Burton-67%

Crawford-33%

IN-06

Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially if we retain Congress. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.

Prediction

Pence- 72%

Welsh- 28%

IN-07

Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him and I think he has a real future in the house. Perhaps he will even reach leadership someday. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. Carson has his job in Congress until he does not want it anymore. Scott will be crushed.

Prediction

Carson-65%

Scott-35%

IN-08

Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got one of the best possible candidates we could have gotten in state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is very popular. People seem to forget that when rating this district. Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He offers nothing. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party does not like him and I am sure some of them will refuse to vote for him. Van Haaften has even reached out to some of the upset Tea Party members. I could see him getting a lot of Republican votes. No matter how you think the Senate race will turn out it is obvious that Ellsworth will clean up in his own district and that will likely provide coattails for Van Haaften. Fellow Indiana SSP user notanothersonofabush made a good point the other day about The GOP having other priorities and it is very true, the Republicans have there eyes set on the Senate seat and possibly knocking out Hill and this is not at the top of their to do list.  

Prediction

Van Haaften-53%

Buchson-47%

IN-09

Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Young is not free of controversy though, he received money from Massey energy, a mining company which is now under scrutiny for unsafe conditions it puts it’s workers through. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It makes an excellent attack add. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. A lot of people say his vote on health care reform hurt him but I actually think he would be worse off had he voted against the legislation. He needs high turnout in Bloomington and he needs to keep progressives happy there. Also please do not take the poll taken by fire dog lake seriously. They were against the health care reform bill and I believe it was there tactic to poll tough districts to scare members of Congress out of voting for the legislation. The poll in question was highly questionable as it contained many gottcha questions and such. Mike Sodrel even released an internal poll showing him leading by one so it is pretty obvious that poll was highly inaccurate when a Republicans internal shows better news for Hill. Tough but Hill has it in him.

Prediction

Hill-50%

Young-46%

Others-4%

IN SoS

Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats will nominate Vop Osili  or Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. I do not know the dynamics of the race, although I consistently receive emails from Vop and he sounds like a serious candidate. I do not know this race enough to make a prediction though, maybe my fellow Indiana SSP users could make the call.

Auditor and Treasurer

Berry and Mourdock are safe. I do not know a lot about the races but they are scandal free so they will probably be fine.

IN State House

We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose but narrowly. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 52 seats and we get 48. I hope I am wrong.

State Senate

The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.

Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!

• AR-Sen: As predicted, labor doesn’t look like it’s going to kiss and make up with Blanche Lincoln. The SEIU says it won’t back Lincoln in November, if nothing else, seeing as how they have races with better odds elsewhere that they need to deal with. PPP’s Tom Jensen reinforces that point in a piece entitled “Write Off Lincoln,” listing a handful of total sleeper races where the polls have been better for Dems than Arkansas.

• CT-Sen: Campaigns don’t usually release internal polls showing them down by 13 points, but when all the public pollsters are showing you down by more than 20 after your blockbuster move failed and it’s a last ditch effort to get contributors to not write you off, I suppose it makes sense. A Moore Information poll finds Linda McMahon trailing Richard Blumethal “only” 51-38.

• IL-Sen: Glad to see that the mainstream environmental groups are starting to see the big picture of how Washington works instead of reflexively endorsing moderate Republicans who occasionally pantomime throwing them a bone (see also Reichert, Dave). The Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters, who’ve backed Mark Kirk in the past in his House races, will be going with Alexi Giannoulias instead this year.

• NH-Sen: This seemed more like a cry for attention than a well-thought-out campaign pre-announcement when it happened last week. So it’s not surprising to hear that whistleblower/former state Securities chief Mark Connolly, after floating his name last week, has decided against running against Paul Hodes in the Dem Senate primary. (The same link also has a list of filings for New Hampshire’s state Senate… although Blue Hampshire has that data in helpful table form. Most notable: a troubling Dem-held open seat in a R+4 district.)

• SC-Sen: That didn’t take long at all, for the Democrats’ baffling new Senatorial nominee, Alvin Greene, to slide into Scott Lee Cohen territory. With revelations this morning that he’s facing felony obscenity charges, the state party is calling on Greene to drop out of the race. Mother Jones has some more detail on Greene that really plumbs the depths of his sheer unpreparedness for what he’s gotten himself into. I have no idea whether he’s a GOP plant (who got fronted the $10K filing fee to be a speed bump for Vic Rawl and wound up winning instead) or just a naif who accidentally wandered into the corridors of power, “Being There”-style, but either way, it makes for a great story.

• AL-Gov: It’s official; Robert Bentley finished in 2nd place in the GOP gubernatorial primary, earning him a spot in the primary, and, as expected, Tim James will file for a recount. AG Troy King just issued an AG opinion clarifying the whole issue of whether an automatic recount applies here: no, it doesn’t apply to primaries, so James is responsible for the cost of the recount himself. James still plans to do it, though, despite the cost of at least $300K.

• MI-Gov: Republican AG Mike Cox got endorsements from two key GOP power brokers: from the state Chamber of Commerce, and also from Dick and Betsy DeVos. I was a little surprised that the Grand Rapids-based Amway cult leaders didn’t go with their in-house western Michigan U.S. Rep., Pete Hoekstra, but Hoekstra claims not to be surprised, probably suggestive of some interpersonal tension with the DeVos family.

• MN-Gov: Here’s one more place the SEIU won’t get involved: the DFL gubernatorial primary in Minnesota. All three contenders seem to be friendly with labor, so the SEIU didn’t seem to want to play favorites in a field that’s basically a tossup.

• OR-Gov: Now this is odd… while Oregon has a rather New England-influenced politics, there’s no track record of quirky moderate independents running and winning there. Nevertheless, prominent local attorney John DiLorenzo is reporting a $150K loan from himself to his exploratory committee, in apparent preparation for a gubernatorial run.

• SC-Gov: I don’t think the RGA could tip its hand any further than it did last night, all but endorsing Nikki Haley, who still has to get past a runoff against Gresham Barrett, saying “the voters made a clear choice” and “the outcome is certain.” Barrett, for his part, is brushing that off and continuing to fight on.

• VT-Gov: You may remember Anthony Pollina, who ran as a Progressive and then independent in several gubernatorial races, going as far as to finish 2nd in 2008. Good news for Vermont Dems: Pollina isn’t making a third-party bid, or even running for governor at all this year; instead, he’s running for a state Senate seat. Also, it sounds like the local Dems and Progressives are getting smarter about not canceling each other out, as they plan to avail themselves more of “fusion voting” this year. (H/t terje; the whole comment is well worth a read.)

• AR-01: With the ink barely dry on Chad Causey’s victory in the Dem runoff, the Rick Crawford campaign released an internal poll showing them with a lead over Causey. The poll by POS gives the GOP nominee a 40-34 lead. While the district has a strong Dem tradition, Obama’s 54% disapproval in the district gives Crawford an opening.

• IN-03: There’s a tally of 15 different Republicans seeking the GOP nod for the special election to replace the recently-resigned Mark Souder; the local GOP will meet on Saturday to choose somebody. The most prominent name is state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who recently lost the IN-Sen primary, but the list also includes IN-03 primary loser Bob Thomas, two state Reps., Randy Borror and Wes Culver, and even a local TV anchor, Ryan Elijah.

• IN-09: Biden alert! The fundraiser-in-chief has added Baron Hill to his list of beneficiaries, and will be appearing on his behalf in Jeffersonville on June 28.

• PA-12: For his rematch against now-Rep. Mark Critz, Tim Burns is going to try a different campaign manager. Having lost by 9 in the special after seeming to lose the ground war, he parted ways with former chief Tadd Rupp.

• NRSC: John Cornyn admits that the NRSC’s wide playing field this November isn’t all good news, because their limited resources (currently $17.1 million) will be stretched thin. Somewhere Dino Rossi is thinking “Now he tells me…”

• Polltopia: Maybe the biggest story that people are following today is the quick decision, in the wake of the AR-Sen runoff polls (as well as MA-Sen, PA-12, and the AL-Gov D primary…), by Daily Kos to part ways with hired pollster Research 2000. However, Markos says the decision was more based on 538’s aggregate pollster ratings than any one poll. There’s no word yet on which pollster will be wearing the orange in the future. Mark Blumenthal has more on the decision, including R2K head Del Ali’s response.

AR-Sen: The Big Dog is coming back home to stump for Blanche Lincoln, the first time he’s done so this race. Meanwhile, the SEIU just tossed in another $100K for phonebanking and another $100K for field on behalf of Bill Halter. (There’s also an amusing negative $100K entry for “reverse phonebanking.”)

CA-Sen: Chuck DeVore is as insane as this ad. A true must-see. In news of the normal, President Obama kept to his promise to return to CA for two more Barbara Boxer fundraisers. The events raised $1.75 million, $600K of which will go to Boxer and the balance to the DSCC.

KY-Sen: Heh, that was quick. Rand Paul is already planning the dreaded “staff shakeup.” The only problem is that he can’t fire himself. Barring that, Mitch McConnell is telling his least-favorite fellow Kentuckian to shut the fuck up and hide under a rock – “for the time being.”

PA-Sen: I agree – this is a magnanimous move. Arlen Specter introduced Joe Sestak to his Senate colleagues at their weekly lunch yesterday. Very gracious.

AL-06, AL-07: Unsurprisingly, corporate lawyer Terri Sewell is the only Democrat airing TV ads in the primary to succeed Rep. Artur Davis, spending about $200K so far. With $783K, she’s far outraised her chief competitors, Earl Hilliard, Jr. ($328K) and Shelia Smoot ($100K). Sewell can also count among her contributors Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz.

Crazily, though, ten-term GOP Rep. Spencer Bachus is also airing ads in advance of his primary in AL-06, some $70K worth. Bachus has spent an amazing $680K on his campaign so far, even though his challenger, teabagger Stan Cooke, has raised just $29K total. This is the reddest district in the nation according to Cook PVI (R+29), which may explain Bachus’s anxiety, since he is the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee and voted in favor of the bailout.

AR-01: A similar situation in AR-01 as in AR-02 below, where first-rounder David Cook endorsed the somewhat less-conservative Chad Causey over the extremely conservative Tim Wooldridge in (you might be a little surprised to hear me say this if you don’t already know the names) the Democratic runoff.

AR-02: Some runoff endorsements on both sides from the also-rans. Patrick Kennedy and John Adams (great names, huh?) both endorsed Robbie Wills in the Democratic race, while David Boling endorsed Joyce Elliott. I suspect national Dems would prefer Wills over the more-liberal Elliott, but this race is probably too touchy to get involved in.

DE-AL: Joe Biden returned home to do a fundraiser in Wilmington for John Carney. No word on whether he’ll also do one for Senate candidate Chris Coons, but it’s not like it’s a big schlep.

FL-25: The statewide Florida AFL-CIO, following the lead of its South Fla. branch, endorsed little-known longshoreman Luis Meurice in the Democratic primary, rather than Joe Garcia. The union, Florida’s biggest, backed Garcia in 2008.

IN-05: This is exactly the kind of weird that Dave Weigel specializes in. Tim Crawford, the teabagging “Democrat” who snuck to victory in the Democratic primary here, abruptly dropped out of the race after an unpleasant meeting with, you know, actual Democrats… and then wrote a long, rambly email saying he was un-dropping-out. Ah well.

IN-09: Speaking of Joe Biden, he’ll also be doing a fundraiser in late June for Rep. Baron Hill in Jeffersonville, Indiana.

NC-08: I would really freakin’ love to see Tim D’Annunzio pull this one off. The entire NC House GOP delegation just collectively endorsed former TV sportscaster Harold Johnson, terrified as they are of the spastic-fantastic Tim-diana Jones. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, click here stat.

RI-01: Scott Brown is coming to Rhode Island for a fundraiser with state Rep. John Loughlin, the GOP’s candidate in this open seat. To date, Loughlin’s raised about $344K, which might not seem too bad, but in fact he’s been running for a long time, since well before Rep. Patrick Kennedy announced his retirement.

VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian has a new poll from McLaughlin & Associates showing him with a 36-23 lead over Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity in the GOP primary. A March poll had Fimian up 29-17. Herrity had his own poll out last month, though, showing him with a 42-21 lead – and pointed out that Fimian claimed his internals had him just three points behind Gerry Connolly before election day 2008, but lost by twelve.

DSCC: Uh, good, I guess. The DSCC has cancelled plans to have EPA chief Lisa Jackson headline an NYC fundraiser next week – but what a retarded idea in the first place. It seems pretty inappropriate to me to have cabinet members doing hackwork like this (can you imagine Hillary Clinton or Eric Holder shilling for dollars?), but it’s even worse when you’re talking about the head of the EPA in the midst of the oil spill crisis in the Gulf. I also find it unctuous that the original invitation promised that the event would be “intimate, so each of you will have a real opportunity to get to know and to speak to Lisa about issues of concern to you and our nation.” Pretty gross when it’s our team selling access to the ultra-wealthy. Barf.

Ideology: Alan Abramowitz has a great piece up at the Democratic Strategist, looking at the correlation between ideology (as measured by DW-NOMINATE) and election performance by Republican senators. Using a modified eight-point DW-N scale, Abramowitz finds: “For every additional one point increase in conservatism, Republican incumbents lost an additional three percentage points in support relative to their party’s presidential candidate.” But shhh… don’t tell the Republicans!

Yesterday’s primary elections in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio showed two things: one, despite all the huffing and puffing about it being an anti-incumbent year and there being a massive wave of teabaggers ready to take the system down, establishment candidates still won pretty much everything. And two, the enthusiasm gap between the parties that we’ve been warned about is definitely out there, and numbers from last night back that up.

Indiana: Indiana was the case study for what went wrong with the anti-establishment candidates — there were just too many of them. In Republican race after race, the anti-establishment votes were split between too many candidates, letting the incumbents or the anointed challengers slip through; had the teabaggers had the presence of mind to unite behind one person, they could have done some actual damage. In the Senate primary, 90s-leftover Dan Coats won with a tepid 39%, beating state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (standard-bearer of the DeMint wing of the teabaggers) at 29 and ex-Rep. John Hostettler (representing the Paulist wing) at 23. As we’ve wondered openly before at SSP, I have no idea whether that’s better or worse for Democrats, seeing as how Coats has access to actual money but also a dump-truck full of vulnerabilities (starting off with the possibility that the NRA might actually support Brad Ellsworth over the Brady Bill-supporting Coats).

The same dynamic played out in a slew of House races. In IN-03, somnambulistic Rep. Mark Souder won with 48% over two opponents, Bob Thomas at 34% and Phil Troyer at 16%. In the open seat race in IN-04, SoS Todd Rokita only cleared 42%, although there were 13 contestants in the race and his nearest rival, Brandt Hershman, only reached 17%. In IN-05, widely disliked Rep. Dan Burton managed to way underperform his 52% from his last primary: he only got to 30%; luckily for him, his opposition was so chopped up that he still survived, with former state GOP chair Luke Messer coming closest at 28%. In IN-08, the NRCC’s pick, surgeon Larry Bucshon, barely survived a horde of teabaggers, most of whom coalesced behind Kristi Risk, whom he beat 33-29. And in IN-09, a three-way duel between ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel, establishment pick attorney Todd Young, and teabagger fave Travis Hankins wound up with Young winning with 34%, with Hankins at 32% and Sodrel at 30% (sparing us Baron Hill vs. Sodrel Round Five). The only dominant performance was Jackie Wolarski in IN-02, who picked up 61% of the vote to Jack Jordan’s 28%.

As with Coats, it’s unclear to me who we’d rather have faced in those races. In each case, it was a choice between an establishment guy with money but who isn’t going to excite the GOP base, vs. an outsider without the connections or, possibly, the campaign chops. Maybe Risk’s loss will help with Democrat Trent Van Haaften’s outreach to the local teabaggery, and in the 9th, while it’s sad Baron Hill won’t get to face off against the increasingly laughable Sodrel, Young seems to come with his own set of problems (first and foremost, a big recent donation from Don Blankenship, controversial CEO of coal mining company Massey Energy).

North Carolina: The big story in North Carolina was the Democratic primary in the Senate race. Thanks to a fairly strong performance from third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis, nobody cleared the 40% mark, and we’re headed to a June 22 runoff between SoS Elaine Marshall and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham, which’ll be a duel between name rec (Marshall) and money (Cunningham). Marshall finished at 36%, Cunningham at 27%, and Lewis at 17%.

At the House level, in the main race where the GOP is playing offense, the primary is also headed to a runoff. In NC-08, unhinged rich guy Tim D’Annunzio got 37% and ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson got 33%. NC-11 had looked like it was also headed to a runoff, but by night’s end businessman Jeff Miller barely cleared the hurdle, with 40.2%. In both those races, the Dem incumbents got mild rebukes from their bases (presumably over their anti-HCR votes), with Larry Kissell getting only 63% and Heath Shuler getting 62%. In NC-06 and NC-10, geriatric Howard Coble (64%) and bombastic Patrick McHenry (63%) also underperformed against fractured opposition. You have to look further downballot to see any bodies falling: five incumbent state legislators lost their primaries (four of them Dems, although some of these look like safe seats).

Ohio: The main event in Ohio was the Senate primary for Democrats, where Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, as expected beat SoS Jennifer Brunner 55-45. Considering how vastly Brunner was outspent, and the trajectory of the last week’s polls, it’s actually surprising it was that close. Apparently Brunner’s hard work on the ground in some of Ohio’s reddish areas in the last weeks of the campaign paid off some dividends, as she put up big leads in the Cincinnati area (Hamilton and Clermont Counties). Naturally, it leaves you to wonder what she could have done if she’d had some actual money.

In the House, OH-02 was the scene of two contested primaries. Rep. Jean Schmidt survived her primary challenge with little trouble, beating Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn 62-22. On the Dem side, Surya Yalamanchili squeaked out a 41-38 win over David Krikorian, with apparently enough people repulsed by both to give 22% to Some Dude J. Parker. Krikorian continued to be a douchebag even in defeat, accusing Yalamanchili of having played “the race card.” The establishment candidates in the two other big GOP primaries both prevailed: in OH-16, Jim Renacci got 49% to 40% for Matt Miller (his third straight time breaking 40% but losing the GOP primary here). And state Sen. Bob Gibbs, the NRCC’s recruit in OH-18, seems to have beaten Fred Dailey by about 200 votes (at 21% each), although this race appears headed to a recount. (One would be hard-pressed to call Dailey, the 2008 nominee and former state Agriculture Director, an outsider candidate, although at least he was certainly angry this time around.)

In Ohio, there were also some allegedly hot primaries for the GOP in statewide races, where teabagger favorites were taking on establishment picks, that also turned out to be a big bucket of nothing. In the SoS primary, state Sen. Jon Husted beat Sandra O’Brien 67-33, while in the Auditor race, Delaware Co. Prosecutor Dave Yost (who was the teabagger fave when he was in the AG race running against the guy they really hate, Mike DeWine, but became their enemy when he switched over to the Auditor’s race against the guy they liked) beat state Rep. Seth Morgan 65-35.

Finally, as I said at the start, there’s the matter of turnout disparities. Reid Wilson points to how only 662K voters voted in the OH-Sen Democratic primary, which was lower than the number of Democratic voters (872K) in the Democratic primary in 2006 (where there was no contested D primary in either the Governor or Senate races). That jibes with the broader numbers we’ve been seeing about enthusiasm gaps (as with Gallup‘s recent poll showing 43% of Republicans are “very enthused” about voting, while 33% of Democrats are). The falloff was similar in Indiana, where only 204K Dems participated as opposed to 304K in 2006, although it’s worth noting that the Dems were playing offense in 2006 and had contested House primaries, while this year there was really bupkus to get Dems to the polls in Indiana. In North Carolina, 425K voted in the Dem primary. Reid compares this to 2004, where more Dems showed up in the primary, but that may not be an apt comparison as that’s a presidential year — regardless, that too may be an ominous number in the context of the Republican Senate primary, where almost as many, 374K, voted to help Richard Burr dispatch no-name opposition.

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has launched his first TV ad of the campaign, hitting Marco Rubio for being a lobbyist. Dunno that Crist has the cred to make these attacks stick. Rubio’s firing back with an ad that ties Crist to Obama (something that’s more easily done).

LA-Sen: Hah! Awesome! GOP Sen. Tom Coburn, hoping to force Dems into an uncomfortable vote, wants to offer an amendment to the healthcare reconciliation bill that would prohibit insurance coverage of Viagra for convicted sex offenders. The Louisiana Democratic Party put out a press release saying that surely Coburn “would agree that anyone who has admitted or been found guilty of involvement with prostitution should not be covered either.” Zing! Meanwhile, in an act of extreme bravery, Rep. Charlie Melancon says he doesn’t support repealing healthcare reform.

NV-Sen: As Las Vegas Now puts: “It has not been a pleasant two weeks for United State Senate hopeful Jon Scott Ashjian. Three of his personal properties have been served with default notices, his Nevada Tea Party supporters will not come to his aid and national party leaders have denounced him as a fraud.” Click the link for all the details.

WA-Sen: Yesterday we learned that Dino Rossi got jiggy with Michael Steele. Now it turns out that he also paid a visit to NRSC HQ. Wonder if he’ll bite.

AL-Gov: As in Georgia (see GA-12 item below), several leaders of the Alabama African American community are unhappy with Artur Davis’s vote against healthcare reform. State Sen. Hank Sanders of Selma sent an open letter to Artur Davis, criticizing his decision, and TV host Roland Martin also expressed displeasure, saying that Davis “was elected to represent the people in his district in Congress, not a future position that he may or may not get.”

NY-Gov: Newly-minted Republican Parker Griffith may have supported Howard Dean, but even more newly-minted Republican Steve Levy supports… single-payer healthcare insurance? Oh yes, according to a Working Families Party survey he filled out in 2007. Michael Long will be sooo pleased. (H/t Darth Jeff)

PA-Gov: Philly Mayor Michael Nutter will endorse state Sen. Anthony Williams in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. This gives Williams, who just joined the race and trails in the polls, a big shot in the arm, especially if Nutter puts his full machine behind him. (Williams has done quite well in the money race, though, outraising some of his better-known competitors.)

AR-03: A Republican candidate with the perversely appropriate name of Gunner DeLay is calling for “civil disobedience” against healthcare reform. Just what we needed – more incitement, from a former prosecutor, no less. I guess DeLay is trying to make amends for his pro-union past as a state senator.

GA-07: Another Republican is jumping into the field to succeed GOP Rep. John Linder: his former chief of staff, Rob Woodall. He joins state Rep. Clay Cox and Walton County businessman Tom Kirby.

GA-09: The special election date to fill Nathan Deal’s seat has been moved from April 27th to May 11th (run-off: June 8th), in order to give military and overseas voters enough time to submit their ballots.

GA-12: Dem Rep. John Barrow is definitely feeling some heat over his “no” vote on healthcare. Black political leaders, who had generally supported Barrow over the years, are very unhappy with him and are either pulling their endorsements or switching over to his primary opponent, Regina Thomas. African Americans make up a third of the district’s population and approximately 60% of Dem primary voters. Thomas, though, got pasted in a 2008 effort to defeat Barrow and has chump change in her campaign account.

IL-11: GOPer Adam Kinzinger hasn’t gotten the memo, apparently, because he’s going full steam ahead on repealing healthcare reform. The responses to this are so easy it’s ridiculous – which is why Rep. Debbie Halvorson in turn accused Kinzinger of wanting to repeal protections against pre-existing conditions. We could do this all day.

IN-09: A Wilson Research Strategies poll for Republican Mike Sodrel shows him very competitive with Rep. Baron Hill, trailing by just a 43-42 margin. Sodrel also tested the GOP primary, where he looks very strong. He has 46%, compared to 19 for activist Travis Hankins and 13 for attorney Todd Young. (Young is on the NRCC’s Young Guns list.) The poll was conducted a few weeks ago, before the healthcare reform vote.

MD-01: How much does a vote against healthcare reform get you? Dem Rep. Frank Kratovil is going to find out. Despite Kratovil’s two “no” votes, his opponent Andy Harris is charging: “This is Nancy Pelosi’s bill. Her fingerprints are all over it, and Frank Kratovil enabled Nancy Pelosi to be in the position where she is now.” If this line of attack sticks, it’ll show that cringe politics rarely works.

PA-03: Dem Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper’s Some Dude primary opponent, Mel Marin, filed a challenge to keep Dahlkemper off the ballot – and just got his challenge rejected. Supposedly he’ll appeal.

PA-07: The SEIU has backed Dem Bryan Lentz in his bid to win the open 7th CD against GOPer Pat Meehan.

SD-AL: Even though he declined to challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin himself, Steve Hildebrand is trying to help Dr. Kevin Weiland qualify for the Democratic primary. Weiland has to submit 1,250 signatures in just one week’s time, though.

DNC: The DNC is trying out a new message, airing radio ads which ask voters to tell their Republican congressmen: “Hands off our healthcare!” Be very curious to see if these draw any blood – or if this message continues to see use.

Healthcare: SEIU is spending $700K on ads thanking Dems in tough districts for their “yes” votes on healthcare: Tom Periello (VA-05), Dina Titus (NV-03), Betsy Markey (CO-04), John Boccieri (OH-16), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) and Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL). The local New York chapter will also air ads thanking Scott Murphy (NY-20), Bill Owens (NY-23), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Tim Bishop (NY-01) and Steve Israel (NY-02).

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 36

Dan Coats (R): 37

Undecided: 27

Brad Ellsworth (D): 34

John Hostettler (R): 40

Undecided: 26

Baron Hill (D): 37

Dan Coats (R): 37

Undecided: 26

Baron Hill (D): 36

John Hostettler (R): 42

Undecided: 22

Jim Schellinger (D): 34

Dan Coats (R): 39

Undecided: 27

Jim Schellinger (D): 33

John Hostettler (R): 44

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±4%)

This poll went into the field before Indiana Democrats coalesced around Rep. Brad Ellsworth – and before Rep. Baron Hill took himself out of the running. Architect and 2008 Dem gubernatorial candidate Jim Schellinger also won’t be our nominee, but the inclusion of his name lets us see how a non-DC name fares. And the bottom line is that it’s competitive all around.

Perhaps even more interesting, though, is that lunatic John Hostettler, who was teabagging before they even invented tea, performs better than creaky beltway creature and North Carolina resident Dan Coats. While the CW says we should always be rooting for teabaggers in GOP primaries, Coats’ abysmal resume has me questioning that assumption. Hoss really is nucking futs, though, and as a notoriously feckless fundraiser, he probably can’t raise nearly as much money as Coats can. I’m torn – I want them both to win!

(Additional discussion in hoosierdem’s diary.)

Not surprising, but still good news:

“I took some needed time this week to thoughtfully reflect upon what had transpired,” Hill said in a statement. ” I would like to thank all those whose honest input I sought, including members of the Indiana Democratic Party’s Central Committee and folks from the Ninth District.”

Hill also offered support for Ellsworth, who faces a couple of little-known Democrats in his quest to become the party’s nominee. The state party’s central committee will ultimately pick their candidate after the state’s May 4 primary.

“I believe my friend and colleague, Congressman Brad Ellsworth, is the right man to fulfill the task of ensuring a Democrat is elected to succeed Senator Bayh,” Hill said.

Hill, like the rest of us, was totally blindsided by Evan Bayh’s retirement decision, but suffered one crucial disadvantage over Brad Ellsworth: he was in Afghanistan and incommunicado for security reasons at the time of Bayh’s announcement. For many strategists, that was probably just as well — they both preferred Ellsworth as a candidate, and his open seat would be slightly easier to defend over Hill’s. Still, Hill seemed upset that he had been passed over so quickly, which probably inspired his brief exploration of the race. And now we return to our regularly scheduled program.

• FL-Sen: There’s one more poll of the GOP primary in the Florida Senate race, and it’s even more dire for Charlie Crist than the Rasmussen poll from earlier in the week: Crist trails Marco Rubio 48-30, according to a poll commissioned by the Chamber of Commerce. (Remember that their previous poll, back in October, had Crist leading Rubio 44-30, and even that was considered something of a warning sign at the time.) Meanwhile, Jim DeMint seems to be actively goading Crist into switching parties – something he might want to be careful about, thinking back to that R2K poll showing that was Crist’s best shot at being Florida’s next Senator. (And Aaron Blake is certainly noticing that Crist is sounding more “independent,” for what that’s worth.) Finally, while Jeb Bush will probably never come right out and endorse Rubio over Crist, he’s pretty much hitting us over the head with a sledgehammer as to how he feels about the race, saying that Crist’s support of the stimulus was “unforgivable.”

• IN-Sen: While Baron Hill is continuing to let his interest in filling in as Senate candidate be known, DSCC head Bob Menendez seems to be moving full speed ahead on coronating fellow Rep. Brad Ellsworth, saying he “is going to be a great candidate.” (In other Menendez news today, he’s confirming that there aren’t going to be any more Democratic retirements this cycle.) Meanwhile, Evan Bayh is trying to walk back his douchey comments delivered as he walked out the door last week about how the stimulus didn’t create any new jobs (in the face of CBO estimates that indicated he was off by about 2 million). Now he’s downgraded that to it’s “probably largely true if limited to the last six months,” whatever that means.

• KY-Sen (pdf): Who would’ve thought, even half a year ago, that Republican SoS Trey Grayson’s biggest problem wouldn’t be the general election but even getting out of the primary? Republican pollster Magellan (independent of either candidate) released a poll of the GOP primary, finding Rand Paul overwhelming Grayson, 44-23. Grayson and Paul are busy trading blows over coal, each accusing the other of being insufficiently pro-coal.

• NY-Sen-B: As the search goes on for a celebrity candidate for the Republican nomination to go up against Kirsten Gillibrand, a new name has just bubbled up that may leave some people scratching their heads: Dan Senor, the former Bush adviser (and husband to CNN’s Campbell Brown). He’s currently talking to “money types” about the race.

• PA-Sen: Franklin & Marshall’s new poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race doesn’t contain much good news for either Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak; they’re both losing to ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, at least among likely voters. Specter trails Toomey 44-34 and Sestak is down by an even worse 38-20. However, they fare much better among registered voters, with Specter beating Toomey 33-29 and Toomey beating Sestak 25-22. (As far as trendlines go, last month Toomey and Specter were tied among RVs at 40 each, and Toomey led Specter 45-31 among LVs, so it’s actually a bit of an improvement.) Specter has the edge in the Democratic primary, up 33 to 16 (little changed from 30-13 last month). Meanwhile, Toomey has tried publicly to put some distance between himself and his Wall Street past, but it’s clear that he’s privately still eager to take their money in order to fight his opponents’ “populist” agenda. (Hmm… that may be the first time in history anyone has ever called Arlen Specter “populist.”) Toomey’s approach is just part of a larger movement, profiled in detail by the Washington Post, about how Wall Street contributions are increasingly flowing away from the Dems and back toward their usual friends in the GOP.

• CA-Gov: One more poll has Meg Whitman overwhelming Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner by a wide margin in the GOP primary: 60-12, suggesting that her ad blitz while the other candidates have stayed silent has paid off (for now). The poll was taken by M4 Strategies on behalf of the Small Business Action Committee (although it’s not clear if they have a horse in the race).

• FL-Gov: There are dueling ads in the Florida governor’s race already. In an indication of how topsy-turvy everybody’s messaging has gotten in the last year, the RGA is attacking the Democratic candidate, Alex Sink, for being an elitist banker, while the Democrats are attacking Bill McCollum for voting for congressional pay raises and to lift the debt limit.

• IA-Gov: Ed Fallon, whom you may remember for his primary challenge to Rep. Leonard Boswell a few years ago, sounds like he’s sniffing out the possibility of a primary challenge to Gov. Chet Culver now. Fallon says the party needs someone stronger than Culver (who’s in bad position in the polls vis-à-vis Terry Branstad, although that has more to do with Branstad’s strength than Culver’s own approvals).

• PA-Gov: The same Franklin & Marshall poll doesn’t look at general election matchups in the gubernatorial race, seeing as how the Democratic field is completely unsettled (although, given the Senate numbers and the lack of name rec for all the Dems, I wouldn’t expect those numbers to be very appealing). At any rate, they find Tom Corbett on track to win the GOP nod, beating state Rep. Sam Rohrer 26-4. The Dem side is utterly dominated by “undecided,” with Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, Auditor Jack Wagner, and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel all tied for the lead at 6. (That’s not a misprint.) Scranton mayor Chris Doherty (who just dropped out) is at 4, with state Sen. Anthony Williams still in close striking distance at 1.

• RI-Gov: Here’s one of the first definitive-sounding polls in a very interesting gubernatorial race, courtesy of Brown University. Ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee seems to be in pole position in his independent bid, although his lead over Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio isn’t that big: Chafee leads 34-28, with 12 for Republican John Robitaille. Chafee has a bigger lead over Democratic AG Patrick Lynch 32-17, with 13 for Robitaille. There are still a lot of undecideds in the Dem primary, but Caprio leads Lynch, 30-21.

• TX-Gov: Rasmussen takes what may be its last look at the Texas gubernatorial race before the primary next Tuesday. The real question may be shaping up to be whether Rick Perry can escape the primary without a runoff. Perry’s in the lead with 48, with Kay Bailey Hutchison at 27 and Debra Medina at 16. (The last Rasmussen poll was three weeks ago, before both Medina’s surge and then subsequent crash, so the numbers really aren’t that different from that poll’s 44-29-14.) Rasmussen also finds a competitive general election, with nice trendlines for Democratic candidate Bill White from the last poll. White loses to Rick Perry 47-41 (instead of 48-39), and loses to KBH 47-38, while beating Medina 47-37 (instead of losing to her 41-38, like last time). Kay Bailey Hutchison may have signaled that she’s thrown in the towel, admitting in an AP interview that she’s been flummoxed by Perry’s success at casting her as a Washington insider. John Cornyn is now saying that he hopes KBH decides to stick around as a Senator “if” she loses the governor’s race — I don’t think you have too much to worry about there, John.

• KS-01: SurveyUSA has a poll out of the GOP primary in a race that’s gotten little attention: the election to fill the open seat left behind in the dark-red 1st by Rep. Jerry Moran’s Senate run. At R+23, the only question is whether semi-wingnut or super-wingnut wins. It actually looks like semi-wingnut might win: state Sen. Jim Barnett (who seems more in Moran’s mold) is leading fellow state Sen. Tim Huelskamp (the Club for Growth’s endorsee) 23-16. Former Sam Brownback CoS Rob Wasinger is in 3rd place at 8.

• PA-06: Some cryptic comments from Lower Merion Twp. Commissioner Brian Gordon have him sounding like his short campaign in the 6th is about to come to an end (after he managed only 1 vote at the Chester Co. Democratic Party endorsement shindig where Manan Trivedi prevailed), with an eye toward another whack at Rep. Jim Gerlach in two years. He said “I’m either the last candidate out for 2010 or the earliest guy in for 2012.”

• PA-12: Now we know the dates for the party meeting where the nominees for the May 18 special election in the 12th get picked. For the Dems, the state executive committee will pick a nominee on March 8. For the GOP, a convention held in Latrobe on March 11 will pick the nominee. One other Dem is also floating his name out there for the nod: former Cambria County Controller Albert Penska. Meanwhile, no one’s quite sure what happens to the half a million dollars in campaign cash left behind by Rep. John Murtha. It looks like money reserved for the upcoming general election will need to be refunded, but the money in his leadership PAC is up for grabs.

• VA-05: I wonder if this presages an independent/Tea Party run by ex-Rep. Virgil Goode, or if he’s just looking to keep his face in the news? Goode is planning to address a Lynchburg teabagger gathering next week. Goode, who briefly was an Independent in between being a Democrat and a Republican during his Congressional tenure, has already announced that he won’t run for the Republican nomination again.

• VA-09: It sounds like Republican state House majority leader Morgan Griffith is pulling the trigger on a run against Rep. Rick Boucher in the 9th, and has the endorsement of the other two GOP legislators who’d considered the race. Boucher is already acting fast to shore up his right flank, touting his most recent endorsement from the NRA.

• WA-03: There’s one less Republican in the GOP field in the 3rd, as Washougal mayor pro tem Jon Russell pulled out of the race and endorsed state Rep. Jaime Herrera. (Interestingly, businessman David Castillo, rather than Herrera, seems to have most of the endorsements from area politicians in this race, despite not being an elected official — although he seems to have locked many of these endorsements down before Brian Baird retired and Herrera got in.) Russell is still looking to move up; he’ll be running for the House seat in LD-18 vacated by Herrera.

• Blue Dogs: The Center for Responsive Politics takes a look at fundraising by the Blue Dogs, and finds that they easily outraise their more liberal counterparts among the Dems. The average Blue Dog raised $693K last year, $75K more than the average non-Blue Dog Democrat. Is it a question of them being more vulnerable and needing more money, or them being more corporate-friendly? Or more accurately, is it a question of them being more vulnerable and thus needing more money and thus needing to be more corporate-friendly in order to get money from the people who have money to give?

• Redistricting: In its ongoing series looking at redistricting battles in various states, the Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College has a very thorough rundown of what all is at stake in Florida in the next few years. Complicating matters is the potential passage of a “Fair Districts” initiative that will be on the ballot this year (and seems to be on track to pass), which would restrict the parties’ ability to gerrymander.

• AZ-Sen: One more endorsement for John McCain, as the GOP establishment circles the wagons around him in the face of a primary challenge from J.D. Hayworth. Today, it was former presidential rival Mitt Romney’s turn to boost McCain.

• FL-Sen: Rasmussen follows up with a look at the Senate general election in Florida, and pretty consistent with its last few polls, gives double-digit leads to both Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio over Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek. Crist leads 48-32, while Rubio leads 51-31. It’s looking dicier for Crist to make it to the general, though, and that’s reflected with an increasing number of staffers seeing the handwriting on the wall and bailing out. Political director Pablo Diaz announced his departure, and new media consultant Sean Doughtie is already out.

• IN-Sen, IN-08: Dem Rep. Baron Hill, still apparently mulling a Senate bid, says that he probably will make a decision “this week”. Meanwhile, presumptive Dem nominee Brad Ellsworth has officially removed his name from the 8th CD Democratic primary ballot, leaving state Rep. Trent Van Haaften as the consensus Democratic choice. (J)

• MA-Sen: Unless you were under a rock yesterday, you know that the Senate jobs bill cleared the cloture hurdle with the aid of five Republicans, most notably Scott Brown, who actually seems to be thinking ahead to getting re-elected and, in doing so, has royally pissed-off his nationwide base of teabagging donors. On top of that comes another revelation that ought to further take the bloom off his status as living embodiment of angry-white-guy rage: that truck that signified he was an average blue-collar guy? Turns out he owns it in order to haul his daughter’s horse.

• NV-Sen: One more data point in the Nevada Senate race, this one not looking so good for Harry Reid. Research 2000 polls the race again, this time on behalf of the PCCC, and finds Reid trailing Sue Lowden 53-39 and Danny Tarkanian 54-40. The real point of the poll, though, is to try to show him that his support would go up if he successfully got a public option into the health care reform bill, with 31% saying they’d be likelier to vote for him if so (with 15% saying less likely and 51% saying no difference). Bear in mind that this poll, unlike the interesting POS poll from yesterday, doesn’t factor in the sudden emergence of a 3rd party Tea Party option.

• CT-Gov: After some brief flirtations with the idea, ex-Rep. Chris Shays has decided not to run for Connecticut governor after all, saying he couldn’t make it work financially. Although he didn’t address the also-rumored possibility of running again in CT-04, the same logic may apply there too.

• FL-Gov: The seeming dwindling of the Alex Sink campaign continues apace, at least if you go by Rasmussen’s trendlines. Republican AG Bill McCollum is up to 13-point lead against the Democratic CFO, 48-35.

• GA-Gov: More Rasmussenny goodness in neighboring Georgia, where they take their second look at the general election in the gubernatorial race. While Democratic ex-Gov. Roy Barnes led several of the GOP contestants in the previous Rasmussen poll, trailing only Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, this time he doesn’t fare as well. Barnes loses to Oxendine 45-37, to Rep. Nathan Deal 43-37, to SoS Karen Handel 45-36, and ties state Sen. Eric Johnson 37-37.

• IL-Gov: The GOP primary contestants are still waiting for the last ballots to trickle in today, the last day for counties to submit their numbers to the state. (The state has until March 5 to announce official results.) Estimates last week were that there were fewer than 2,000 votes, mostly provisional votes, to count. State Sen. Kirk Dillard, currently trailing by a little more than 200 votes, doesn’t plan to make a decision on whether to concede or keep fighting until after the 5th. On the Democratic side, the search for a Lt. Governor goes on. Pat Quinn had publicly said that his top choice would be current Deputy VA Secretary Tammy Duckworth, but she has taken herself out of consideration today.

• MI-Gov: Looks like Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee is in the gubernatorial race for the Democrats; he’s skipping right over the exploratory phase and filing as a candidate for governor. He joins Lansing mayor Virg Bernero and state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, with state House speaker Andy Dillon likely to enter soon.

• PA-Gov: State Sen. Anthony Williams didn’t meet his very high $4 million fundraising bar, but he seems to feel heartened enough by the $2 million he has to officially pull the trigger on a gubernatorial run. With Chris Doherty and Tom Knox both out of the Democratic field now, it seems like there’s room for one more SE Pennsylvania candidate in the field; Williams, from Philadelphia, will be the only African-American in the race.

• WI-Gov: One more Rasmussen gubernatorial poll to look at, featuring (surprise!) the Republican in the lead. Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker leads Democratic Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett 49-40, while ex-Rep. Mark Neumann has a much smaller lead over Barrett, 44-42. That’s actually a smidge better than last month’s Rasmussen poll.

• AR-03: State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe got the endorsement of one of her predecessors in the 3rd, ex-Rep. and former DEA Director Asa Hutchinson. A wide cast of characters, including Rogers mayor Steve Womack, is either already in the hunt for the GOP nod or considering it, in this dark-red district.

• AZ-05: Rep. Harry Mitchell can probably consider this to be good news: another divisive Republican primary, which helped him to a comfortable victory in 2008, is brewing this year. Former state Rep. Susan Bitter Smith jumped into the GOP field yesterday, which pits her in a rematch against former Maricopa Co. Treasurer David Schweikert (who won the 2008 primary). Businessman Jim Ward and his ability to self-fund is in the mix too, as something of a wild card.

• AZ-08: State Sen. Jonathan Paton has resigned from the state Senate, in order to focus full-time on running against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in the 8th. He leaves behind one piece of legislation underway that’s actually a pretty cool idea: instituting “question time,” a la the UK’s parliament, where the Governor has to show up for a biweekly grilling in front of the legislature. Paton becomes the third Republican state Senator to resign in the span of a few weeks, with Pam Gorman and Jim Waring both having bailed out to pursue the open seat in AZ-03.

• FL-24: Former Ruth’s Chris Steakhouses CEO Craig Miller went ahead and got into the GOP field in the 24th, despite already having taken on some damage from preemptive salvos fired by the DCCC over statements opposed to stronger drunk-driving laws. Potentially self-funding Miller has become the NRCC’s new fave in the race, after state Rep. Sandy Adams and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel have floundered at fundraising.

• FL-25: Joe Garcia, the Democratic 2008 candidate who almost knocked off Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, met with the DCCC’s Chris Van Hollen yesterday. This only serves to increase speculation Garcia will try again, now that the 25th is an open seat. The DCCC has also been interested in Miami-Dade Co. state’s attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle.

• KS-03: Republican State Sen. Nick Jordan, who lost in the 3rd to Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore, looks to be on track to succeed the retiring Moore. Jordan’s own internal poll from POS shows him ahead of state Rep. Kevin Yoder 27-9, with former state Rep. Patricia Lightner and Charlotte O’Hara both at 5 (leaving about half of the voters undecided). Jordan’s poll didn’t look at the general, but there’s nothing to see there yet, seeing as how the Dems haven’t, um, found an interested candidate yet.

• MA-10: In the event of a retirement by Rep. William Delahunt, state Senate majority leader Therese Murray says she won’t try to succeed him. On the GOP side, possible candidate ex-Treasurer Joe Malone may come with more liabilities than were initially apparent when he first started touting himself for the race. After Malone’s tenure ended in 1999, it was discovered that several of his top aides had stolen over $9 million from the state. Malone himself was never accused of being involved, but reminding voters about it will inevitably lead to questions about his judgment.

• NM-02: Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce has released an internal poll performed on his behalf by the Tarrance Group that gives him a small lead over Democratic Rep. Harry Teague, 48-44. The good news for Teague is that R beats D in a generic ballot test 47-37, showing that the conservative Teague overperforms the Democratic brand despite his vote in favor of cap and trade in this heavily oil-dependent district.

• NY-01: Despite the NRCC’s seeming preferences for rich guy Randy Altschuler, he’s already in a difficult primary, and now he may be facing a three-way contest with a local elected official too. State Assemblyman Michael Fitzpatrick says he’s exploring the race.

• OH-06, OH-17: Ex-Rep. Jim Traficant didn’t meet the filing deadline to file as a Democrat for any race in Ohio, but now he’s saying that he’s planning to run as an Independent instead (which would require filing by early May). He’s still not saying where he’s going to run, although neither of the two possibilities look terribly promising: either the strongly-Democratic 17th (which he used to represent), or the swingy 6th, where he’d have to introduce himself to most of the voters

• PA-06, PA-07: Here’s a big get for Manan Trivedi, as he seeks the Democratic nomination in the 6th. He got the endorsement of the Chester County Democrats. With Trivedi already strong in Berks County and Doug Pike strong in Montgomery County, suburban/exurban Chester County is somewhat the pivotal county in the district. (They also endorsed Bryan Lentz over his minor primary opposition in the 7th.)

• PA-12: This is another solid break for the Dems in special election in the 12th: Republican businessman Mark Pasquerilla, with deep pockets, seemed to be one of the few GOPers who could make this race competitive. Something of a John Murtha ally, though, he had previously said he wouldn’t run if Joyce Murtha got in. She didn’t, but Pasquerilla still didn’t bite; instead, he’s endorsing Murtha’s district director, Mark Critz, who announced his candidacy yesterday. This basically moves the GOP back to square one, with the candidates who were already in place for the regularly scheduled election: businessman Tim Burns (who doesn’t seem quite as able to self-fund), or veteran/BMW Direct frontman Bill Russell.

• WV-01, WV-03: Worries have been emanating out of West Virginia’s governor Joe Manchin about the re-election prospects of Reps. Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall, who despite their no votes on cap-and-trade often get tagged as not being sufficiently pro-coal. The United Mine Workers have no trouble supporting the duo, though; they endorsed both of them this weekend.

• DSCC: There have been some rumblings about DSCC chair Bob Menendez’s lackluster ways, at least by comparison to his manic predecessor, Chuck Schumer. Here’s a telling quote:

“Chuck – wow – he would call all the time, three, four times a week, when he needed something, but I don’t ever hear from Menendez unless I initiate the contact,” said a Washington-based donor who has bundled tens of thousands of dollars in contributions to the committee. “You just don’t have the same level of energy from Bob; he just doesn’t push you like Chuck would,” the source added. “And that makes it a lot easier to say no.”

• DCCC: The DCCC is trying to get some mileage out of fanning the flames in some of the most divisive GOP primaries between the GOP establishment and teabagger-powered movement conservatives (which they’re cheekily calling “Palin’s primaries”). Targets include MS-01, VA-02, VA-05, NH-01, CA-11, and TN-08.

• Polltopia: Mark Blumenthal takes another look at Rasmussen, asking if they’ve been “flooding the zone” and thus shaping the overall narrative by sheer numeric dominance of the data that get released. (Sound familiar? He gives a shout-out to a diary here by our own spiderdem that first raised the point.) It’s quite true that Rasmussen has done many more Senate polls this cycle than last (45 vs. 13 at this point in the cycle), but so too have some of the other new players (especially PPP, 21 vs. 5). (He also notices what we’ve noticed, that SurveyUSA is polling less this cycle; they poll only when hired to do so, and he speculates that TV stations and newspapers have cut back their polling budgets.) Interestingly, he also points to why Rasmussen is able to do so: a “major growth capital investment” from private equity firm Noson Lawen. (Noson Lawen, and what their potential agenda might be, sounds like an interesting topic for enterprising investigative bloggers…)

• AZ-Sen: Fox News, of course, has become legendary for its little Chyron errors that always seem to work out to the Republicans’ advantage (slapping a “D” next to Republican Congressmen involved in sex scandals, for instance). What then, to make of their latest one? J.D. Hayworth was recently identified on-screen as “former Arizona congresswoman.”

• CO-Sen: Democracy for America (Howard Dean’s group) is getting involved in the Colorado primary, lending its support to appointed Sen. Michael Bennet. Probably his full-throated support for the public option is helping raise his profile in the netroots. It’s hard to pin down where the ideological fault lines in this primary are, though; his opponent Andrew Romanoff has gotten the big labor endorsements (although both Bennet and Romanoff sound leery about EFCA), and they spent their first debate last week mostly agreeing with and offering kind words about each other.

• FL-Sen:  Sorry, Charlie… Rasmussen takes another look at the GOP Senate primary and finds Marco Rubio putting more distance between himself and Charlie Crist. Rubio is leading Crist 54-36, which is an even bigger gap that last months’ 49-37 edge.

• IN-Sen: Ooops, this could get awkward. Rep. Baron Hill, who was out of the country all last week, got back and decided that he’s at least somewhat interested in (or at least “open to the idea of”) the Senate seat left behind by Evan Bayh too. Rep. Brad Ellsworth already is being treated as heir apparent (to the extent that a replacement for his seat in the 8th is lined up, too), but the state party committee will get the final word on who fills Bayh’s slot.

• NC-Sen: As a bonus addition to their NC-Sen poll from last week, PPP took a look at both sides’ primaries too. On the Democratic side, undecideds rule the day; SoS Elaine Marshall does have the lead, beating former state Sen. Cal Cunningham 29-12 (with 5 for Kenneth Lewis and 2 for Marcus Williams). The only subgroup where Cunningham has the edge so far is voters under 30. On the Republican side, further signs of voters’ general indifference about Richard Burr: he’s polling at only 55% against two unknowns, Brad Jones at 10 and Eddie Burks at 3.  

• NV-Sen (pdf): The first poll of the Nevada Senate race following the news that the Tea Party has sprung into existence and will be running Some Dude is an internal from a GOP pollster, POS. He finds that the top Republicans still beat Harry Reid, but by a much narrower margin than the last few rounds of polling have seen: Sue Lowden leads Reid 42-37 (with 9 for Jon Ashjian), while Danny Tarkanian leads 40-39 (with 11 for Ashjian). Reid beats Sharron Angle 37-32 (with 16 for Ashjian) and Mark Amodei 40-25 (with 19 for Ashjian). Lowden has the edge in the GOP primary, at 35, to 28 for Tarkanian, 8 for Angle, 5 for someone named Chad Christensen, 1 for Amodei, and 0 for the oft-hyped rich guy John Chachas. (Amodei, a termed-out state Senator from Reno, seems to have gotten the message from all this, and dropped out of the race today.

• NY-Sen-B: The NY Daily News observes what I had sensed was happening: the likely challenge from Harold Ford Jr. has seemed to mostly benefit Kirsten Gillibrand, as it raised her profile, and finally kicked her into higher gear, as she’s sought out the spotlight a little more on issues like the public option and DADT. The newest Siena poll (pdf) finds Gillibrand in fine shape so long as George Pataki doesn’t surprise everyone by getting into the race. She trails Pataki 47-41, while beating Port Commissioner Bruce Blakeman 51-24 and wealthy publisher Mort Zuckerman 49-29. She also leads Ford and Jonathan Tasini in the Democratic primary, 42-16-4. If Ford somehow survives the primary, he trails Pataki 48-34, while also beating Blakeman (41-23) and Zuckerman (40-26).

• CA-Gov: A nameless GOP pollster, on behalf of a nameless corporate client, shared an internal poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary with Taegan Goddard. While the lack of transparency is sketchy, the numbers are quite credible: Meg Whitman leads Steve Poizner 55-16.

• MO-Gov: This may be a little premature, but Republican Lt. Governor Peter Kinder is already publicly saying that he’s running for Governor in 2012, presumably against incumbent Dem Jay Nixon. An early start can only help, though; in 2008, Nixon benefited from having his nomination locked down way in advance, while the Republicans fought it out in a nasty primary.

• NM-Gov: NMSU is out with the first poll of the wide-open Republican gubernatorial primary field (although apparently not the general election). Thanks to the benefits of name rec, attorney Pete Domenici Jr. leads the field at 29, ahead of Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez at 12, former state party chair Allen Weh at 7, Doug Turner at 7, and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones at 3. The New Mexico Independent breathlessly reports that this was before the bombshell revelations came out that Domenici used (gasp!) marijuana and cocaine while in college in the (swoon!) 1980s… as if that’s going to change a single vote.

• NV-Gov (pdf): That GOP internal from Glen Bolger also has gubernatorial numbers. Most interestingly, it sees Jim Gibbons (the damaged GOP incumbent) gaining some ground on ex-AG Brian Sandoval; Gibbons trails only 38-32, with North Las Vegas mayor Michael Montandon coming in at 9 (Sandoval’s decline may come at the benefit of Montandon as his profile increases, splitting the non-Gibbons vote). Reid the Younger (Rory, that is) beats Gibbons in the general, 47-36, while tying Montandon 40-40 but losing badly to Sandoval, 50-34. (Also worth noting: the poll also asks some state-level policy questions, and found voters preferring raising taxes to cutting services, 47-38. Certainly more grist for the mill, especially after the passages of Measures 66 and 67 in Oregon.)

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is still taking his time on announcing anything regarding his expected gubernatorial run. While rumormongers seem to think at this point that the announcement is coming in mid to late April (after the fighting over the state budget is completed), the NYT points to a finite deadline: May 25, when the party convention begins (unless for some reason he wants to get on the ballot by collecting signatures and petitioning instead). The same Siena poll (pdf) that we talked about earlier also, as always, covers the gubernatorial race, and there aren’t any surprises there (except perhaps that David Paterson is slipping a bit against GOP candidate Rick Lazio, in the unlikely event he survives his primary). In the primary, Cuomo moves up to 64-22 lead over Paterson (they stopped asking about Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy, whose support seemed to come only out of Cuomo’s column and had pushed Cuomo down to 57 last month). Cuomo beats Lazio 63-26, while Lazio beats Paterson 46-39. (Lazio and Paterson were tied at 42 last month.)

• OR-Gov: Rasmussen issued its first poll of the Oregon governor’s race, and find Democrats leading in every permutation. As always, it wouldn’t be Rasmussen without something weird in there, and what’s weird here is that the closest race is between Democratic ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber and long-ago ex-state Sen. John Lim, where Kitzhaber leads only 40-38. (Lim has a 31/28 approval, which I suppose is low name rec by Rasmussen’s strange standards, but freakishly high when considering that the 74-year-old Lim’s last big moment on the stage was losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden by 61-34, and that he’s probably best known for misspelling his own name on his bumper stickers from his 1990 gubernatorial run, where he lost the primary). Kitzhaber leads Chris Dudley 42-36, Allen Alley 42-34, and Bill Sizemore 48-35, while Bill Bradbury leads Lim 38-35, Dudley 39-36, Alley 41-35, and Sizemore 48-23.

• VT-Gov: That Research 2000 poll (on behalf of local TV affiliate WCAX) that came out late last week had some additional matchups that we didn’t report on, focusing on the ever-present threat of a left-wing spoiler campaign from Anthony Pollina (although last I’d heard, Pollina was sounding more interested in trying for the Democratic nod rather than running 3rd party). Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie wins each permutation, including against SoS Deb Markowitz (who led Dubie in a 2-way race), where he’s up 37-35 with 11 for Pollina. Dubie beats Doug Racine 38-32-12, Peter Shumlin 39-31-12, Matt Dunne 38-31-12, and Susan Barlett 44-26-13.

• WI-Gov: The first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race is ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who’s being treated as the underdog in the GOP primary against Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker. Neumann has deep pockets, but this may be an indication that he’s committed to fighting out the gubernatorial battle to the end instead of moving over to the Senate race, where Russ Feingold currently only has minor opposition.

• MI-14, MI-15: Two octogenarian liberal stalwarts, and the two longest-serving members of the House, both confirmed that they’ll be running for another term: John Dingell (looking for term number 28) and John Conyers (term 23).

• PA-06: Looks like that internal poll released by Rep. Jim Gerlach that had him leading by an ungodly amount had the desired effect. Pharmaceutical exec Steven Welch packed his bags and got out of the race, leaving Gerlach with only token opposition. With a fierce primary underway on the Dem side, it’s now quite the reversal of fortune in this district from where we were mid-last year, when the Dems were united behind Doug Pike and a GOP food fight was underway.

• PA-12: Chris Cillizza is reporting that Joyce Murtha, widow of Rep. Jack Murtha, is going to announce that she won’t run in the May 18 special election to replace her husband. This is big news, as the frontrunners, ex-LG Mark Singel and ex-Treasurer Barbara Hafer, said they’d defer to Murtha. (One more Dem is getting into the field today, Mark Critz, who was Murtha’s district director. Singel and Hafer are the universally-regarded heavyweights, though.) Cillizza also hints that Republicans  “downplay their chances” in this special election, despite the district’s R+1 lean (the real problem for them is their lack of a bench in this traditionally very Democratic area).

• VA-09: Republican state House majority leader Morgan Griffith seems to be moving ahead with a challenge to long-time Rep. Rick Boucher in the 9th, an Appalachian district that’s sliding away from the Democrats. While the district’s trend has to hearten Griffith, he has two problems: Boucher’s huge cash stash, and the fact that Griffith doesn’t live in the district, although very near the border – but while he’s known in the Roanoke market portion of the district, he’ll need to start from square one in coal country in the deep southwest.

• WA-03: Here’s a surprising departure from the Democratic field in the 3rd: state Rep. Deb Wallace, who jumped promptly into the field after Rep. Brian Baird’s retirement and attracted good notices for the few days she had the Dem field to herself. She isn’t endorsing anybody, but said that the district needed a “true moderate Democrat” (which would seem to point toward ex-state Rep. Denny Heck rather than the more liberal state Sen. Craig Pridemore). Heck’s personal wealth probably drove Wallace out of the race, especially since she’d be splitting the “true moderate” votes with Heck while Pridemore ran unimpeded on the liberal side (well, except for flaky activist Cheryl Crist).

• FL-St. House: In the face of a growing ethics investigation that could potentially start moving in a criminal direction, Republican former state House speaker Ray Sansom resigned from his House seat today. There’s one interesting name among the many persons who’d been subpoenaed to testify before the House Select Committee on Standards of Official Conduct: another former state House speaker (and now Senate candidate) Marco Rubio. (Rubio isn’t accused of wrongdoing, and now it sounds like the hearings have been rendered moot anyway.)

• Filings: Campaign Diaries gives a rundown of what happened with the Ohio and Indiana filings, which closed last week. Dems are looking at five competitive retentions in Ohio (including OH-13, where wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley completed his switch for the Senate race, and OH-18, where state Sen. Bob Gibbs deciced to pull the trigger. Potential problems lurk for the GOP in OH-15, where David Ryon filed as the Constitution Party candidate (meaning Steve Stivers might get screwed from the right a second time), and in OH-16, where NRCC fave Jim Renacci faces a competitive primary against more conservative (and presumably less electable) Matt Miller, who almost won the open seat GOP primary in 2008. The GOP’s big disappointment is probably OH-06, where their best bet seems to be former Belmont Co. Sheriff Richard Stobbs (who lost by a wide margin in 2008). There’s less drama in Indiana (except for the unresolved IN-Sen and IN-08 situations), although the open seat in dark-red IN-04 attracted a host of Republicans (most notably SoS Todd Rokita, but also two state Senators).