Tag: Mark Dayton

• CO-Sen (D): The Democratic heavyweights are out in this marquee race on our side in Colorado, splitting between appointed incumbent and former Denver Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet and Colorado House speaker Andrew Romanoff. Obama’s recorded a robocall for Bennet, while the Big Dog’s been stumping for Romanoff (who, yes, endorsed Hillary in 2008). While Romanoff’s bid seemed quixotic at first, he’s managed to gain some traction, with the most recent polling in the race offering a split decision, with PPP saying Bennet 49-43 and SurveyUSA saying Romanoff 48-45. Much hay was made about Bennet’s accidental incumbency, and the newest scuttle in the race takes the form of Bennet’s financial dealings while Superintendent. While that news may have broken a little late, Romanoff still has the momentum — but will it be enough? (JMD)

• CO-Sen (R): The Devil Wears Prada! Or, perhaps more appropriately, former Lt. Gov Jane Norton wears high heels, according to her rival, Weld County DA Ken Buck. The two have been duking it out for the conservative mantle. Buck’s been endorsed by GOP would-be kingmaker Jim DeMint and has had some airpower in the form of shady 501(c)(4) group Americans for Job Security; Norton’s earned the endorsements of both John McCain and the star of Saved By The Xenophobia, Jan Brewer. Norton and Buck remain close in polling, with PPP giving Norton a narrow edge at 41-40 and SurveyUSA giving Buck some more breathing room at 50-41. All of this remains in complete flux though, and any result tonight could be rendered moot by a switcheroo with the Governor’s race, should the Colorado GOP somehow manage to cast off their albatross in Scott McInnis. (JMD)

• CO-Gov (R): Former Rep. Scott McInnis was at one time considered a major get for the GOP, and the strength of his candidacy was such that he helped push incumbent Dem Gov. Bill Ritter out of the race after just one term. No more. While some initially dismissed McInnis’s plagiarism scandal as a minor white-collar affair that wouldn’t interest average voters, his transgressions in fact proved unusually potent, leading to his campaign’s utter ruin. Polls now show a dead heat between McInnis (whose fundraising has dried up) and crazy fringer Some Dude Dan Maes (who never raised squat to begin with). The primary may be completely moot, though: Rumors have abounded that if McInnis were to win, he’d step down in favor of a less-damaged candidate. We should probably be rooting for Maes, though, who has explicitly said he’d do no such thing. (D)

• CO-03 (R): Former state Rep. Scott Tipton, who represented a large swath of Southwestern Colorado before running against incumbent Dem. John Salazar in 2006, looked like he would easily earn the right to challenge Salazar a second time, but was held to only 45% at the state nominating against the teabaggish Bob McConnell, who also earned 45%. As a result, the two square off tonight, with McConnell running to Tipton’s right, even boasting a Sarah Palin endorsement. Both candidates have some cash to play with, Tipton having spent $213k and McConnell having spent $132k so far. Given the relative low profile of this race – Salazar bested Tipton with 62% in 2006 and seems to be more entrenched than most vulnerable Dems – the race remains unpredictable. (JMD)

• CO-07 (R): The primary field in this suburban Denver district is also down to two after the convention, with Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier having earned 49% and carpetbagging former Democrat Lang Sias having earned 43%. Frazier is winning the money race by quite a distance, $252k to Sias’s $89k cash-on-hand. Sias — who lives in CO-02 and became a Republican in 2007, however, boasts endorsements from both former 7th CD Rep. Bob Beauprez, the one and only Tom Tancredo, and John McCain, who Sias campaigned for (but didn’t vote for). Again, Perlmutter doesn’t seem particularly vulnerable, leading to a lower-profile — and less predictable — race tonight. (JMD)

• CT-Gov (D): Connecticut Democrats are hungry for a win this November — which would be their first gubernatorial win since William O’Neill’s re-election in 1986 — but they’ll have to get through a fast-closing primary tonight to see who their nominee will be. ’06 Senate nominee and Lieberman primary-slayer Ned Lamont is facing off against former 14-year Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, and this race looks like it’s going down to the wire. After lagging in the polls behind Lamont for months, Malloy has used some well-timed punches to turn Lamont’s business experience against him, releasing TV ads criticizing Lamont for layoffs at his telecommunications company. The latest Q-poll shows that Lamont’s lead has eroded to a mere three points — certainly not a margin to bet the farm on tonight. (JL)

• CT-Gov (R): While technically this one is a three-way decision, the only candidates with a shot at winning the Republican nomination tonight are ex-Ambassador Tom Foley and Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele. Like Lamont, Foley has used his personal fortune to catapult himself to an early lead. Fedele has had a rough time keeping pace, highlighted by his failures to secure endorsements from Gov. Jodi Rell and the state GOP convention. Still, Fedele has swung back at Foley with TV ads drawing attention to layoffs at one of Foley’s textile factories in Georgia. The latest Q-Poll shows some juice for Fedele, but he still lags behind Foley by 38-30. (JL)

• CT-Sen (R): Little Bobby Simmons announced that he was taking his ball and going home, but it turns out that he was just lingering behind the bleachers until he could muster up the courage to take another at-bat. The results aren’t pretty: a 50-28 lead for controversial WWE Queen Linda McMahon in the latest Q-Poll. Next! (JL)

• CT-02 (R): Now this one’s getting down in the weeds, but Republicans are trying to prod as many Dem-held seats for potential weakness as possible. The crop of candidates going up against two-term Rep. Joe Courtney, however, leaves much to be desired. After their most well-funded recruit, former Hebron Board of Finance vice chairman Matthew Daly, dropped out in May, Republicans are picking between former TV anchorwoman Janet Peckinpaugh, former State Department official Daria Novak, and farmer/attorney Douglas Dubitsky. Peckinpaugh, the most “hyped” of the trio, failed to raise more than $50K for her campaign, and her candidacy drew early fire for her most recent employment stint as a shill for a now-defunct mortgage company in deceptive, TV news-like ads. As much success as Republicans have had in expanding the map this year, this race stacks up as a glaring recruiting failure. (JL)

• CT-04 (R): State Sen. Dan Debicella is the clear front-runner in the race to take on Rep. Jim Himes. He faces a couple of Some Dudes who, as befits their Some Dude status, haven’t raised squat: Rick Torres and Rob Merkle. (A more credible opponent, Tom Herrmann, dropped out in June after petition fraud meant he couldn’t qualify for the ballot.) Debicella won his party’s backing at the state convention earlier this year. (D)

• CT-05 (R): Though the 5th district would seem to be a tougher GOP target than the 4th, the Republican primary here has attracted quite a bit more money, and a larger number of credible candidates. Another state senator, Sam Caligiuri, is also the presumed front-runner here, having won 70% of the delegate vote at his party’s nominating convention. But Afghanistan vet Justin Bernier, who was running in this race (and got some favorable notice) before Caligiuri dropped down from the senate contest last November, has raised a creditable sum and hasn’t given up. Like many others in his position, though, it seems he’s had a chip on his shoulder ever since Caligiuri hopped into the race, and that’s usually not very appealing. Wealthy businessman Mark Greenberg actually leads the money race, with over a million raised (most of that from his own pockets), but most of the media attention devoted to this contest has seemed to focus on the Caligiuri-Bernier matchup. The winner, whomever he may be, gets to challenge sophomore Rep. (and all-time SSP hero) Chris Murphy in the fall. (D)

• GA-Gov (R): The big ticket race in Georgia is the Republican gubernatorial runoff, between Karen Handel, the former SoS who finished a dominant first in the primary, and Nathan Deal, the former U.S. Rep. who was second. The Beltway media tends to emphasize that this is a proxy fight between possible presidential candidates (with Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney backing Handel, and Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee backing Deal), but the important post-primary endorsements here may have been the NRA, and third-place finisher state Sen. Eric Johnson (who has a strong base in the Savannah area), which both seemed to have consolidate conservative and rural Johnson and John Oxendine votes behind Deal. With that, Deal has pulled into a polling tie with Handel, promising a down-to-the-wire race tonight. (C)

• GA-07 (R): With the surprising third-place finish of state Rep. Clay Cox (who’d had the backing of the Club for Growth and many local endorsers), meaning he’s not in the runoff, it’s anybody’s guess as to who has the upper hand tonight in the Republican runoff in the dark-red open seat 7th and be the district’s next Rep. (Actually, this part of Atlanta’s northern suburbs is going through a lot of demographic change that will be beneficial to Democrats in the long run, but this isn’t going to be the year to capitalize on that.) John Linder’s former CoS, Rob Woodall, faces off against radio talk show host Jody Hice. (C)

• GA-09 (R): Few candidates are as well acquainted with each other as newly-minted Rep. Tom Graves and former state Sen. Lee Hawkins, who, thanks to a special election, special election runoff, and primary, are now poised to face each other for the fourth time this year. Graves has won the first three rounds, and barely missed winning the primary outright (with 49% of the vote), so it would be a pretty monumental turnaround for Hawkins to finally win it, on the time it really counts (as November will be of little import in this dark-red district). Maybe having been in Congress for five months is enough to give Graves the unacceptable taint of incumbency, though. The county to watch is Hall, where Hawkins has his geographic base and which tends to report late. (C)

• GA-12 (R): Democratic Rep. John Barrow — who overcame his main challenge this year, a challenge from the left from former state Sen. Regina Thomas, in the primary — will be watching with some interest tonight to see who his Republican opponent will be: nuclear power plant project manager Ray McKinney, or former fire chief of the small town of Thunderbolt, Carl Smith? Neither one is particularly well-funded or has an imposing profile, but this race could be competitive if the Republican wave is particularly large. (C)

• MN-Gov (D): Minnesota Democrats will finally have a chance to participate in some real democracy today, rather than having their gubernatorial nominee chosen for them by a bunch of elites at a party convention. State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher did in fact win the endorsement of state delegates, but former Sen. Mark Dayton and former state Rep. Matt Entenza forged on with primary challenges regardless. It was probably a wise move for the wealthy Dayton, seeing as recent polls have all shown him to be in first place, with MAK in second and Entenza (who also has access to family money) in third. While this race may not wind up being very exciting, in a low turnout three-way with one woman and two men, the outcome could be unexpected. (D)

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens; 5/3-5 in brackets):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 46 (38) [34]

Tom Emmer (R): 32 (35) [42]

Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]

Undecided: 13 (15) [15]

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 39 (33) [33]

Tom Emmer (R): 33 (35) [41]

Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]

Undecided: 13 (21) [17]

Matt Entenza (DFL): 38 (33) [31]

Tom Emmer (R): 33 (37) [42]

Tom Horner (I): 12 (12) [10]

Undecided: 17 (18) [16]

(MoE: ±2.7%)

The wheels on the bus go round-and-round, except, of course, if your bus is Tom Emmer’s gubernatorial candidacy. Emmer’s hit a few speedbumps recently, having been on the receiving end of ads from DFL candidate Matt Entenza attacking Emmer’s Palinism and outside groups hitting Emmer on drunk driving laws.

SurveyUSA follows up with a second poll confirming the results of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s poll earlier this week, with leads for each of the DFL hopefuls. Emmer’s decline’s been quite stunning, having consistently lost points in each progressive SurveyUSA poll. We’ve had “Joementum” and felt the “Mumpower”, and now, there’s “Emmermentum.” Mark Dayton fares the best, now boasting a 14-point lead, up from an 8-point deficit three months ago – a remarkable 22% swing in that time. Margaret Anderson Kelliher is now up 6, a 14-point swing from being down 8; Entenza’s now 5 up, a 16-point swing from being 11 down.

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 43 (39)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 27 (26)

Matt Entenza (DFL): 22 (22)

Undecided: 7 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The corresponding part of the poll examining the DFL primary also mirrors the Star Tribune’s poll. There’s been slight movement since SurveyUSA last examined the race in June, with Mark Dayton still in the driver’s seat with a 16-point lead over MAK and Entenza in third. Dayton looks well on his way along the road to redemption since retiring from the Senate four years ago; with these results and Emmer’s rising unfavorables, there’s good reason for optimism that we’ll take back the Governor’s Mansion in St. Paul.

CO-Sen: In yet another example of the perils of Citizens United, Americans United for Life, a non-profit anti-abortion group, is endorsing GOPer Jane Norton. Worry not, circular firing squad enthusiasts, as other pro-life groups endorsing Norton’s more conservative rival Ken Buck are already hitting back promoting Buck as the pro-lifest option.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, seeking to stanch the bleeding of support to Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary, has released an internal poll showing him leading by the slimmest of margins, 36-35, with 8% going to Maurice Ferre and 20% undecided. Meek has three events planned with the Big Dog in the coming weeks – which isn’t surprising given Meek did endorse Hillary Clinton for President in 2008.

KY-Sen: Braun Research (8/2-4, likely voters):

Jack Conway (D): 31

Rand Paul (R): 41

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3.46%)

Braun Research is out with another poll in Kentucky, showing a result consistent with other pollsters of a slight lead for mountain-hater Rand Paul.

NV-Sen: Sharron Angle’s Tour de Crazy continues, as she’s now bandying about criticizing gay adoption (which is legal in Nevada) and advocating for the right of religious officials to endorse political candidates – which flies squarely in the face of Section 501(c)(3) of the tax code.

CO-Gov: Former state legislator Tom Wiens – last seen briefly running for the Senate seat currently held by Michael Bennet – may have set his sights on the Governor’s race as a post-primary option given the utter fail of both GOPers on the ballot, Scott “plagiarist” McInnis and Dan “lien collector” Maes. Wiens claims to have already voted for Scott McInnis, but his follow-up statement that “I voted for Scott McInnis and let’s hope things work out” is hardly a ringing endorsement.

MN-Gov: Target’s CEO, Gregg Steinhafel, is apologizing for the company’s recent $150,000 to the shadowy right-wing group Minnesota Forward, which was last seen airing ads in support of the waitstaff-hating, gay-bashing, Christian conservative-cozy GOP nominee, Tom Emmer. The irony in all of this, of course, is that Target is the successor to the Dayton-Hudson Corporation…to which Democratic gube-hopeful Mark Dayton is an heir.

AL-05: With many of their members at risk in November, the Blue Dog Coalition senses an opportunity to add to their ranks here, endorsing Dem nominee Steve Raby. The Blue Dog Coalition goes way back in this northern Alabama district, as Bud Cramer – who held this seat until 2008 – was a co-founder of the coalition.

ID-01: It’s hard to to tell who’s campaign’s been more amusing, Bill Sali’s or Raul Labrador’s. The normally GOP-leaning Idaho Associated General Contractors – who even endorsed Bill Sali in 2008 – are opting for Dem Walt Minnick, even citing Minnick’s opposition to the stimulus as a point of reservation for the group.

TN-08: The dust’s hardly settled from last night’s bloody GOP three-way…primary, which has fortunately allowed Democratic nominee state Sen. Roy Herron to build up a huge financial advantage. Outside groups are stepping in though, with the conservative-leaning 60 Plus Association dropping $240k in ad buys against Herron in the Memphis, Jackson, and Nashville markets.

VA-05: To the disappointment of cat fud lovers everywhere, the teabaggish Jim McKelvey – despite his earlier reluctance – is endorsing the man who beat him in the primary, “moderate” state Sen. Robert Hurt. Fortunately, there’s still the teabagging independent in this race, Jeff Clark.

WA-08: In a major surprise, the Seattle Times has decided not to endorse incumbent GOPer Dave Reichert, criticizing his constant nay-saying. The Times – which has endorsed Reichert in the past – is instead opting for Microsoft exec Suzan DelBene (D) and Expedia senior manager Tim Dillon (R) in Washington’s unusual top two primary.

Polling: Daily Kos, after having fired their pollster Research 2000, is back in the polling game, to the delight of Swingnuts everywhere. While Daily Kos has yet to decide on a national pollster, they’ve settled on the always reliable Public Policy Polling for state-level horserace polling.

Rasmussen:

CA-Gov: Brown (D) 43%, Whitman (R) 41%

MI-Gov: Bernero (D) 37%, Snyder (R) 49%

NC-Sen: Marshall (D) 40%, Burr (R) 49%

Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star-Tribune (7/26-29, registered voters, no trendlines):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 40

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 30

Matt Entenza (DFL): 17

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±7.8%)

Mark Dayton (DFL): 40

Tom Emmer (R): 30

Tom Horner (I): 13

Undecided: 17

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 38

Tom Emmer (R): 29

Tom Horner (I): 13

Undecided: 18

Matt Entenza (DFL): 36

Tom Emmer (R): 31

Tom Horner (I): 15

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Things haven’t been going so well for Tom Emmer lately, who at one point immediately after the GOP convention had a unity-bounce lead in the polls (or at least in the Rasmussen/SurveyUSA likely voter universe). In the last few weeks, he’s released a weak fundraising report, been the target of big advertising blitzes from both Matt Entenza and a Dem 527, and won’t be able to ever eat in a restaurant in Minnesota again, as his waitstaff is likely to be serving him loogie sandwiches for the foreseeable future. On top of all that comes the new Star-Tribune poll, which may be the most bullish on DFL chances of any poll yet: it gives all three DFL candidates, even Entenza, a decent lead over Emmer.

They also look at the DFL primary, although the 7.8% MoE is pretty absurd. At any rate, the results mirror what other polls of the primary have found: Mark Dayton with a lead of 10 or so over Margaret Anderson Kelliher. The DFL-endorsed Kelliher also got the Star-Tribune’s endorsement over the weekend. Whether those endorsements help her to overcome Dayton and Entenza’s money, well, we’ll have to wait until Aug. 10 to find out.

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff, who’s had seeming trouble articulating a motivation for his primary campaign against appointee Michael Bennet (other than “it was my turn”), still seems like he’s confident in his chances of winning the primary. He just doubled down by selling his house and lending the $325K proceeds to his campaign (or maybe he was just eager to sell the dump, anyway). Romanoff had $464K CoH on June 30, but most of that has been gobbled up by ad buys. Also on the ad front in Colorado, the shadowy, Ken Buck-backing 501(c)(4) Americans for Job Security is out with another anti-Jane Norton ad, attacking her over her support for anti-TABOR Proposition C.

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell, the forgotten right-winger in the Delaware GOP primary against Rep. Mike Castle, keeps hitting wingnut paydirt. Having already secured the Susan B. Anthony List endorsement, she’s now getting backing from two more of the engines pulling the crazy train: the Tea Party Express (the corporate astroturf umbrella org for the teabaggers), and Concerned Women for America (Phyllis Schlafly’s group). The Politico article includes a litany of O’Donnell’s baggage as rattled off by Delaware’s GOP state party chair, so it seems like the establishment is taking note and starting to push back.

• FL-Sen: Well, that was fast; I guess when you have a few hundred million dollars at your disposal, you can whip up ads pretty quickly (or just have  a couple extra sitting in the can, ready to go). With Kendrick Meek having launched his first Dem primary ad yesterday, a negative ad against Jeff Greene, today Greene hit back with two different anti-Meek ads. One focuses on Meek’s family connections to a corrupt developer, and the other focuses on the cigar-maker carveout from SCHIP. As always, NWOTSOB.

• KY-Sen: The Jack Conway camp has leaked Daily Kos an internal from Benenson giving them a 44-44 tie with Rand Paul, and a 48-46 lead over Paul with leaners pushed. The poll’s a little stale, having been taken June 26-29, but it’s good news; if nothing else, it’s confirmation for the most recent PPP poll, which also saw a tie. We have a copy of the full memo here. Another small reason for optimism in the Bluegrass State: there’s word of a new (and apparently nameless, for now) 527 headed by former progressive Democratic ’08 Senate candidate Andrew Horne, that will be playing in the Kentucky race. They have $2 million pledged by various business leaders to work with, and they’ve lined up Anzalone Liszt and Zata|3 to work for them.

• CT-Gov: This is one of my favorite headlines since “Lamborn Primaried by Local Crank“: “Looney Backs Malloy in Governor’s Bid.” (Martin Looney is the state Senate majority leader.)

• FL-Gov: Taking a page from Raul Labrador, Bill McCollum’s out with an internal. His own poll from McLaughlin & Associates finds him trailing Rick Scott 37-31. (The polling memo actually has the audacity to ask, “Why hasn’t Rick Scott done better?”)

• MD-Gov: Local pollster Gonzales Research is out with their second look at the Maryland gubernatorial race; they find a 45-42 lead for Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich, which very closely echoes the PPP poll from a few weeks ago. Their trendlines go back to January, when a Ehrlich re-run was only vaguely being discussed; then, O’Malley had a 9-point lead.

• MN-Gov: Fundraising reports in Minnesota were due yesterday. GOPer Tom Emmer might well need to use that giant jar of pennies he had dumped on his table in order to buy some ad time, as he’s lagging on the financial front. Emmer has less than $300K CoH and raised under $800K in the first six months of the year, while DFL endorsee Margaret Anderson Kelliher has $385K CoH and raised about $1 million. Kelliher, however, still might not get out of her primary against two rich guys: Matt Entenza raised $360K during that period but also loaned himself $3.5 million (and spent $3.9 million, mostly on TV ads). Mark Dayton hasn’t filed yet.

• OR-Gov: Republican Chris Dudley is padding his financial advantage over John Kitzhaber in Oregon’s gubernatorial race: he’s raised $850K since the May 18 primary, compared with $269K for Kitzhaber. Dudley has raised $2.6 million all cycle long, compared with Kitz’s $1.7 million. (One historical note, though: Ted Kulongoski was easily re-elected in 2006 despite being outspent by opponent Ron Saxton and his $7 million.) Much of Dudley’s money seems to be coming in from out-of-state, as the former NBA player and current financial advisor is getting a lot of Wall Street and sports industry money. Interestingly, the timber industry, usually a Republican force in the state, is staying largely on the sidelines this election, as they’re fairly friendly with Kitzhaber.

• TN-Gov: Having nowhere to go in the GOP primary polls but up, Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey is going the out-and-proud Islamophobe route. Spurred on by the ongoing controversy over the construction of a mosque in Murfreesboro, Ramsey, in response to a question at an appearance, said, “You could even argue whether being a Muslim is actually a religion or is it a nationality, way of life or cult, whatever you want to call it.”

• ID-01: Raul Labrador, a conspicuous absence from the NRCC’s anyone-with-a-pulse Young Guns program, says that he “opted out” of the Young Guns. (Yeah… just like I “opted out” of junior prom.) He didn’t give a specific reason why, although tensions between him and the NRCC have been high.

• MN-03: I’m not exactly sure why Jim Meffert thought it was a good idea to release this internal, but I guess he needed to let people know that he’s actually contesting this thing. His poll (no mention of the pollster in the article) finds him trailing freshman GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen 44-27, with 7% for an IP candidate. The number he’d probably like us to focus on is that Paulsen has only a 33% re-elect (although only 12% say they’re a definite “no”).

• MN-06: Seems like Johnny Law doesn’t like Michele Bachmann’s particularly freaky brand of law and order: the state’s police union, the Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, just gave its endorsement to Dem Tarryl Clark in the 6th.

• RI-01: The American Federation of Teachers, having just endorsed indie Lincoln Chafee instead of Dem Frank Caprio, also went for unconventional with their 1st District endorsement. They went for young up-and-comer state Rep. David Segal, who’s tried to stake out the most progressive turf in the Dem primary, instead of Providence mayor and presumed frontrunner David Cicilline.

• TN-09: On top of having gotten SSP’s annual John Hostettler Award for outstanding performance at filing quarterly reports (for failing to electronically file his FEC report on time, despite having only $19K CoH), Willie Herenton got a much worse piece of news: the Congressional Black Caucus either doesn’t think much of his chances, or think much of him. Although they wouldn’t let Steve Cohen join their club in 2007, they did just endorse him, and sent $5,000 his way.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 29%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 59%

• AZ-Sen (D): Rodney Glassman (D) 15%, Cathy Eden (D) 11%, Randy Parraz (D) 10%, John Dougherty (D) 7%

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 40%, Jane Norton (R) 44%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 39%, Jane Norton (R) 48%

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 48%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 48%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 38%, Charlie Baker (R) 32%, Tim Cahill (I) 17%

• Election results: Last night’s Georgia primary election went pretty much as expected. The main surprise was the collapse of John Oxendine in the GOP gubernatorial primary, who had the most money and led most polls, but his collapse was plainly foreseeable via polls over the last few weeks. He finished fourth, behind Karen Handel and Nathan Deal (who’ll advance to the runoff, where the Palin-backed Handel will attack Deal for being corrupt and the Gingrich-backed Deal will attack Handel for being a RINO), and Eric Johnson. Ex-Gov. Roy Barnes locked down the Democratic nomination without a runoff. Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond easily advanced to face GOP incumbent Johnny Isakson in the Senate race.

In the House races, Dems in two of the three potentially competitive races in Georgia know who their opponents will be: Mike Keown in GA-02 and Austin Scott in GA-08 won without runoffs. John Barrow — who beat back a challenge from the left from Regina Thomas in GA-12 (with a final score of 58-42, as Thomas’s Savannah stronghold reported late) — will need to wait for a runoff between Ray McKinney and Carl Smith. Hank Johnson in GA-04 escaped his three-way primary against Vernon Jones and Connie Stokes without a runoff, too. Finally, two dark-red seats will feature GOP runoffs: GA-09’s newly-elected Rep. Tom Graves will face off yet again against Lee Hawkins, who lost the special election, while the GA-07 race features a runoff between Rob Woodall and Jody Hice.

• AR-Sen, AR-Gov: That internal poll from Blanche Lincoln didn’t seem to do anything to stem the gusher of bad polls. One additional poll came out yesterday, from Ipsos on behalf of Reuters. It finds John Boozman leading Lincoln 54-35. On the plus side, it also looks at the Governor’s race and finds that the Zata|3 poll finding only a 9-point lead for incumbent Dem Mike Beebe may have been a bit pessimistic. They find Beebe leading Republican challenger Jim Keet 57-35, more consistent with other polling.

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth is out with a new introductory TV ad in the Indiana Senate race. It focuses on his blue collar roots and his experience as Sheriff; there’s nary a mention of his time in Congress.

• LA-Sen: It turns out David Vitter may actually be a better family-values role model than his newly minted GOP primary opponent. Faulkner character State Rep. Noble Ellington says that Chet Traylor was “significantly involved” in his divorce from his ex-wife Peggy McDowell, who then married Traylor. Traylor is currently romantically involved with the estranged wife of one of his stepsons via McDowell. The two stepsons have also filed a lawsuit against Traylor, accusing him of hiding information about his financial assets, as part of their probate case concerning McDowell’s recent death without a will. (If someone wants to call me classist in the comments, please feel free, but I can’t help but notice that Traylor’s name is a homonym for a certain type of dwelling whose residents are stereotypically and often unfairly associated with such behavior.)

• WV-Sen, WV-Gov: As expected (at least as expected since late last night), Shelly Moore Capito announced this morning that she won’t run in the Senate special election in November, despite the nice Capito Carveout specifically designed by the legislature to facilitate her doing so. This leaves self-funding businessman John Raese the likely candidate. (In fact, he’d sounded likely to run in the primary with or without Capito, which may have been a major deterrent for Capito. She cited not wanting to run for two things at once, though, and the potential legal challenges to her doing so.) The primary is Aug. 28, so someone will need to fill the gap soon. West Virigina political analyst Hoppy Kercheval seemed to be the first to correctly diagnose the situation earlier yesterday, pointing out her risk-averse past.

There was one surprise, today, though: Joe Manchin drew a primary opponent, theoretically from the left. He was recently in the news for his staunch opposition to Mike Oliverio in WV-01; it’s former SoS and former Rep. Ken Hechler. Hechler, by the way, is 95 years old, older even than Robert Byrd was, so, well, take that for what it’s worth. Most of the speculation today instead seems to involve what happens with the Governorship. Succession laws aren’t very clear (and there’s no Lt. Gov.), but apparently State Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin will be acting Governor in the event of a Manchin move to the Senate. The bigger question is when the election to fill that job would occur: in a 2011 special election, or in 2012 when Manchin’s term would end anyway? Any discussion of GOP candidates for that begins and ends with Capito, but the Dem list is endless, ranging from temp Sen. Carte Goodwin to SoS Natalie Tennant, but almost certain to include state Treasurer John Perdue and state Sens. Jeff Kessler and Brooks McCabe.

• AL-Gov: Following the lead of Artur Davis on the Democratic side, Bradley Byrne finally got around to endorsing Robert Bentley, sticking his knife in his back a few more times along the way for good measure. His parting shot was that Bentley still needs to answer questions about his relationship with the teachers’ union, the Alabama Education Association.

• CO-Gov: OK, so it’s looking like if Scott McInnis does get kicked to the curb, no one is going to rally behind Dan Maes. His vaunted financial small-business acumen turned out to be a lot of inflated boasting, as newly-released tax returns reveal that his credit reporting business turns out to be a small operation and one that paid him earnings that put his family below the poverty line in 2005 and 2008. When asked how he made ends meet, he responded, “there are other ways to pay yourself than salary,” without further elaboration. Well, that’s true… are those ways legal, though?

• HI-Gov: After padding things out as long as he could, Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann finally resigned his day job today and launched his gubernatorial campaign in earnest. Hawaii has a “resign to run” law, so Hannemann wasn’t officially running until now, despite having been transparently campaigning for many months in the Dem primary against Neil Abercrombie.

• MA-Gov: Massachusetts Citizens for Life endorsed ex-Dem indie candidate Tim Cahill, rather than Republican Charlie Baker. Baker, from the moderate blue-blood side of the party, is pro-choice.

• NV-Gov (pdf): PPP’s Tom Jensen finds it ironic that somehow the Nevada GOP managed to pick the strongest possible Republican for the gubernatorial race and the weakest possible one for the Senate race. The telegenic and inoffensive Brian Sandoval is somehow managing to avoid having his GOP predecessor Jim Gibbons’ unpopularity (25/63) rub off on him (Sandoval is at 42/31). Sandoval leads Rory Reid (who’s at 34/48) by 52-38 in the general election.

• RI-Gov: Bill Clinton will be appearing in Rhode Island on behalf of Democratic candidate Frank Caprio, last man standing in the Dem primary, on July 29. Caprio backed Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary.

• WI-Gov: Fundraising numbers in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race are out. Democrat Tom Barrett raised $2.39 million in the period of January through June, while GOPers Scott Walker and Mark Neumann raised $2.59 million and $1.96 million respectively (although some of Neumann’s money seems to be out of his own pocket). In terms of CoH, it’s Barrett (with no primary opposition) with $2.89 million, Walker with $2.57 million, and Neumann with $1.05 million.

• IA-02: Marianette Miller-Meeks, the ophthalmologist who lost severely to David Loebsack in 2008, is back for a rematch, and seems to be in better shape this time (better, even, than Raul Labrador), if her own internal is to be believed. Her poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research gives Loebsack a 46-41 lead.

• NJ-03: The Courier-Post wonders aloud “who the heck is Peter DeStefano?” That’s because no one really seems to know. He’s the independent Tea Party candidate in the 3rd, who hasn’t done anything to promote himself and whose main claim to fame was polling in the double-digits in John Adler’s recent internal poll where he was dominating Jon Runyan. This led, naturally, to GOP claims that DeStefano was some sort of plant from the Adler camp. DeStefano denies that, but isn’t helping matters with his pattern of ducking publicity, not just among the teabagging rank and file but even with the Courier-Post too.

• PA-11: Naturally, it’s never a sign of strength for an incumbent to go negative on his challenger this early… but it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Paul Kanjorski is in a heap of trouble in his rematch against Lou Barletta. But Kanjorski may feel he’s not only better served by localizing, not nationalizing his race, but also that he has a target-rich environment for hits on Barletta, given Barletta’s tenure as mayor of city of Hazleton, which has the highest unemployment in the state and whose local government is in danger of going into receivership.

• TX-06: I suppose this is an example of karma at work. Rep. Joe Barton’s campaign fund took a loss of $154K over the last three months because of hits to its investments… perhaps most significantly, because of losses at BP.

• RNC: It seems like Michael Steele can say all the dumb things he wants and keep his job (fo shizzle), but could financial mismanagement be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? The RNC has had to report new debts that were kept off the books by staffers loyal to Steele, and treasurer Randy Pullen (not a Steele ally) is going public alleging that the debts go much deeper than what was reported to the FEC, claiming that more than another $7 million in debt is out there. The dispute is likely to dominate matters at the RNC’s annual meeting in two weeks. This also leads to speculation that American Crossroads, the Karl Rove 527 operation that finally seemed to kick into high gear last month, will be the de facto main source for independent expenditures this year while the RNC sputters.

• House: Well, it looks like we’re stuck with 435 for the foreseeable future. A federal district court ruled against the plaintiffs in a lawsuit that claimed that only 435 seats was unconstitutional under 14th Amendment grounds, because of malapportionment between different states (i.e. Montana and Wyoming each getting one Rep., despite their population differences).

• Rasmussen:

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 41%, Rand Paul (R) 49%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%

• MN-Gov: Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 35%

• MN-Gov: Matt Entenza (D) 37%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43%, John Kasich (R) 48%

Stephanie Schriock, a former campaign manager for Al Franken and Jon Tester (as well as Tester chief-of-staff), became the new head of EMILY’s List earlier this year. Her organization is supporting state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher in the Minnesota gubernatorial race. Kelliher is running against two men for the Democratic nomination, former Sen. Mark Dayton and former state Rep. Matt Entenza. Last Thursday, Schriock tweeted:

It’s nearly MAKction time in #MNGov & I can’t wait to hear the gr8 things that @MAKminnesota will accomplish. Better than those #lazy$ men.

If you click the link, you’ll notice that she since deleted that tweet (which was up for, I believe, at least a day). But there’s no acknowledgement or apology on her Twitter account.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There’s no shortage of pollsters looking at California, and now Canadian firm Ipsos (on behalf of Reuters) piles on. They find, like most pollsters, single-digits leads for the Democrats in both major races: Jerry Brown leads Meg Whitman 45-39 in the gubernatorial racer, while Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina 45-41. They also find the proposed ballot initiative legalizing marijuana failing but by a close margin, 48-50.

• CO-Sen: The endorsement that seemed to blow everyone away yesterday was Bill Clinton’s unexpected backing of Andrew Romanoff, who’s mounting a primary challenge to appointed incumbent Michael Bennet in the Senate primary. It may not be that surprising, though, given Clinton’s willingness to go to bat for lost causes who backed Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2008, which Romanoff did. It sounds like Clinton’s intervention will be limited to fundraising e-mails, though, rather than stumping with Romanoff.

• FL-Sen: The criminal case against former state GOP party chair Jim Greer is interesting enough on its own. But it could get even more interesting if Charlie Crist gets called to testify as a witness, which could happen, as his name is on a list of potential witnesses that’s being circulated.

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk, having offered some weak excuses (“I wasn’t thinking”) at his public appearance yesterday to apologize for his resume embellishments, tried to get back on the offensive against Alexi Giannoulias, rolling out two ads. That includes one that tries to get back to the whole “mob banker” meme. Giannoulias, however, isn’t letting the resume flummery issue die; he rolled out his own attack ad today keeping Kirk’s misrememberments front and center.

• KY-Sen: Charming: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost the Democratic primary to AG Jack Conway, isn’t going to endorse anyone in the Senate race. Also, he said he isn’t planning to run for Governor next year. (Steve Beshear is running for re-election, but dropped Mongiardo from the ticket in favor of Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson, perhaps assuming that Mongo would already be Senator by 2011.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): SurveyUSA (6/23-24, likely voters):

Elaine Marshall (D): 40

Richard Burr (R-inc): 50

Mike Beitler (L): 6

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4%)

We haven’t been intentionally ignoring this poll from last weekend, just kept dropping the ball on getting it onto the front page. At any rate, this is one of those weird instances where Rasmussen sees a better race for the Dems than does SurveyUSA, although that may have to do with Rasmussen’s odd tendency to see huge post-primary bounces.

• NV-Sen: Last night’s title heavyweight bout was between Sharron Angle and Jon Ralston on Ralston’s public affairs TV show. Angle tried to emphasize her softer side, walking back earlier vague threats about armed insurrection, but still voiced support for Social Security phaseout and, maybe even more fatal for Nevada, support for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site.

• WV-Sen: Don’t get too comfortable in assuming that the West Virginia election to replace Robert Byrd won’t be held until 2012. There are vague rumblings that, despite the SoS’s decision, there might be a legislative special session this year to move the election date to November 2010. Bear in mind, though, that Dems thoroughly control the legislature so they’d be doing it only if they thought there was an advantage to doing it now instead of ’12. As Aaron Blake points out, Joe Manchin is not only the heir apparent to the Senate seat but also the Governor, who has the power to move the special session agenda, so the whole thing is really up to him. (Manchin might figure his heavy popularity is more of an advantage in a shortened election season, instead of a multi-year ramp-up to 2012.) At any rate, Manchin seems content to take his time, wanting to wait until after Byrd’s funeral next week to make any moves.

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton is flying in the face of conventional wisdom (conventional wisdom that ignores the success of recent pro-tax ballot measures in Oregon and freakin’ Arizona) by making tax increases for the wealthy a cornerstone of his gubernatorial campaign. Dayton also just landed endorsements from 2006 gubernatorial candidates Mike Hatch, and ex-Rep. Bill Luther.

• ID-01: Raul Labrador, the gift that just keeps on giving. Labrador, who just had to walk back criticisms of John Boehner, is now facing reports that he recently tore into John McCain at a pre-primary appearance and voiced his support for J.D. Hayworth. On a related note, the NRCC just promoted 16 more Young Guns to the top tier of their fundraising pyramid, but despite having won the primary here, Labrador‘s name is still nowhere to be seen on the list.

• KS-04: Here’s some trouble for Wink Hartman, the businessman competing with Mike Pompeo for the GOP nomination in this Todd Tiahrt-held open seat. Pompeo’s camp is making hay out of reports that Hartman, whom they’ve accused of carpetbagging in from Florida, is still taking a valuable homestead exemption on his expensive house in Florida, which would require that to be his primary residence.

• LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond seems to have a big advantage in his quest to win the Democratic nomination in the 2nd; he’s released an internal poll taken by Zata|3 (which you might remember polling the Arkansas primaries on behalf of Arkansas Business Journal), giving him a 53-13 lead over fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta. No general election numbers for the battle against Republican Rep. Joe Cao were released.

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello is out with what might get my vote for the best candidate TV ad of the cycle so far. (Well, the best ad not featuring Dale Peterson, I suppose.) It’s attention-grabbing and light-hearted enough to break through the clutter, while still staying on-message on the issue of jobs.

• WA-02: Talk about an utter polling fail. John Koster, the Republican challenger to Rep. Rick Larsen, is touting a poll with a lead over Larsen but isn’t giving the name of the pollster or even the specific numbers (saying he’s “in the neighborhood of 53 to 47 percent” – wow… no undecideds?). Larsen’s camp is saying the poll is crap, and they have a little more than the usual platitudes to back that up: Larsen was actually one of the persons polled, and he helpfully jotted down all 12 questions the poll asked. One of them identified Larsen as… a Republican.

• DCCC: Here’s some good news; now that they’re down to the final day of the quarter, the DCCC is actively twisting some arms to get recalcitrant House Dems to cough up their DCCC dues. So far, through the end of last month, House Dems have given $19.5 million over the cycle to the DCCC… but deadbeats still abound.

SurveyUSA for KSTP (6/14-16, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 39

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 26

Matt Entenza (DFL): 22

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Mark Dayton (DFL): 38 (34)

Tom Emmer (R): 35 (42)

Tom Horner (IP): 12 (9)

Undecided: 15 (15)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 33 (33)

Tom Emmer (R): 35 (41)

Tom Horner (IP): 12 (9)

Undecided: 21 (17)

Matt Entenza (DFL): 33 (31)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (42)

Tom Horner (IP): 12 (10)

Undecided: 18 (16)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

The newest SurveyUSA poll of the Minnesota governor’s race shows an unlikely political comeback underway: ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, who retired in 2006 because few people expected him to be able to win re-election, is now the favorite in the DFL primary against DFL-endorsed Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and also the only Dem currently beating Republican Tom Emmer.

It’s a better set of numbers for the Dems than the ones put up in the previous SurveyUSA poll, where Emmer had a substantial lead in the midst of a post-convention bounce. These numbers instead look much closer to the more recent MPR poll, which had Dayton beating Kelliher by 10 in the primary and Emmer by 4 in the general (while Emmer narrowly beat MAK and Entenza). The previous SurveyUSA poll was distinguished by much demographic weirdness in the crosstabs, but today’s poll has many of the same oddities (the Democratic primary sample in today’s poll, for instance, is only 34% liberal, is only 56% in the Twin Cities, and actually has 22% Tea Party supporters in it, while those 18-34 year olds still continue to be big Emmer backers)… so I suspect there is some real movement away from Emmer as his bounce fades, rather than merely a more favorable sample.

• CO-Sen, PA-Sen: Need some quantification that people just don’t care about the job-offer so-called-stories in the Colorado and Pennsylvania races? It comes from Rasmussen, of all places, perhaps the pollster you’d think would have the greatest vested interest in finding that people do care. 44% of those sampled say this is business as usual for politicians, with only 19% saying it’s unusual. And 32% say it’s an issue that will be “very important” in their decisions in November (and what do you want to bet most of that 32% wouldn’t think it was important if it was a Republican offering a job to a Republican?), Scott Rasmussen points out that’s quite low compared with other issues in importance.

• DE-Sen: It’s been confirmed: Joe Biden will be heading back to Delaware to stump on behalf of Chris Coons. Biden will appear at a June 28 fundraiser in Wilmington.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP is out with another look at the North Carolina Senate race, where the Democratic field has yet to be settled via runoff. Today’s results focus only on the general election, though, where Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham both lost a little ground against Richard Burr as the bump wore off in the middle of the lull between the primary and the runoff. Burr is still at an unenviable approval of 35/37, but he leads Marshall 46-39 (up from a 1-point margin in the poll immediately post-primary) and leads Cunningham 46-35.

• AL-Gov: The final count of all ballots in the too-close to call Republican gubernatorial primary is scheduled to be released today. The issue isn’t who won, but who made second place and makes it into the runoff. Businessman and gubernatorial progeny Tim James, who was in third on election night by 205 votes, says he’ll seek a recount regardless of what happens with the final count of provisional ballots, so it’ll be a while before we know whether he or Robert Bentley faces Bradley Byrne in the runoff.

• MI-Gov: One more big union endorsement for Virg Bernero in the Michigan Democratic primary; the Lansing mayor got the nod from the state AFSCME (not surprising, considering that public employee unions have little use for his rival, Andy Dillon).

• MN-Gov: The good news: there’s a new poll out showing all three potential DFL nominees handily beating GOP nominee Tom Emmer in the Minnesota gubernatorial race, contrary to the recent SurveyUSA (where Emmer was winning) and Minnesota Public Radio (super-close) polls. The bad news: it’s a pollster I’ve never heard of, and I can’t tell at whose behest they took the poll, so I don’t know how much weight to give this one. At any rate, Decision Resources Ltd. finds that Mark Dayton leads Emmer and Independence Party nominee Tom Horner 40-28-18. Margaret Anderson Kelliher leads 38-28-17, while Matt Entenza leads 34-27-19.

• MS-Gov: Hey, I know we haven’t even gotten through the current election, but it’s only a year and a half till Mississippi’s off-year gubernatorial election. The mayor of Hattiesburg, Johnny Dupree, will seek the Democratic nomination. If he won, he’d be Mississippi’s first African-American governor. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

• TX-Gov: It turns out that it was too early to conclude (as the media did yesterday) that the Greens were actually going to get a ballot line in Texas this year, which could make a difference in a close gubernatorial race. An Arizona political consulting group collected the 92,000 signatures and, for campaign finance purposes, delivered them as “a gift” to the Greens. But while an individual could do that, a corporation can’t, according to an election law expert.

• VT-Gov: One other state where organized labor is starting to weigh in to the Democratic primary is Vermont, where the state AFL-CIO and the Vermont Education Association both have decided to back former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine. The good news here may be that the AFL-CIO isn’t backing Anthony Pollina like they did last time, splitting the liberal vote (although there’s no indication yet that Pollina will be running this time).

• FL-24: One day after snagging Mike Huckabee’s endorsement, Karen Diebel got the boom lowered on her by RedState (who don’t have a candidate they’re backing, but suddenly seem spooked about her electability issues). They reiterated the (already a known piece of oppo research that’s been floating around for the last year, although perhaps not known to all readers here) story about Diebel’s 911 call in 2007 where police were called to her house over reports of a dead snake in her pool and she subsequently told police she was afraid she was being monitored through her phone and computer.

• NJ-04: With the exception of his hard-core anti-abortion stances, Chris Smith has usually been one of the most moderate House Republicans, so it’s strange to see him enlisting the help of bomb-thrower Michele Bachmann in a re-election bid (in the form of robocalls). In fact, it’s strange to see him sweating a re-election bid period, but facing a teabagger primary challenge from Alan Bateman in today’s climate, he’s not taking any chances.

• WA-08: It’s also see strange to see the Seattle Times going after their pet Congresscritter, Dave Reichert. But they also lambasted him in a weekend editorial for his cynicism, after he was caught on tape telling a Republican audience how he takes the occasional pro-environmental vote in order to throw a few bones to moderate or liberal voters in order to make himself safer in his Dem-leaning swing district. I suppose his brief moment of transparency upset their Broderite inner compasses and trumped even their need to keep him in office.