Tag: Joe Sestak

• PA-Sen: Rep. Joe Sestak is actually sounding likelier to jump into the Senate race than he did before Arlen Specter’s party swap. Interviews this week find him taking on a more belligerent tone and staking out an outsider position. Sen. Bob Casey, however, is moving right away to say he’ll support Specter no matter what happens in the primary.

• IN-Sen: A Hamilton Campaigns poll finds Evan Bayh with ridiculously high favorables: 74/23, with even 61% from Republicans. He also has $11.4 million in the bank. You think with that level of popularity maybe he could drop the defensive crouch and stop reflexively opposing his party’s agenda?

• CA-32: As the May 19 special election primary fast approaches, Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu and state Senator Gil Cedillo have started going at each other hammer-and-tongs. Cedillo’s camp has sent out mailers charging Chu with giving special tax breaks to corporate campaign contributors; Chu’s camp responds that they were “routine refunds of overpaid sales taxes.” Chu leads in fundraising and endorsements, but will need to make substantial inroads into the Latino vote in this district with a Latino majority but a large Asian bloc.

• CA-45: We’ve known for a while that openly-gay Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet was intending to challenge Rep. Mary Bono Mack in this newly-blue district (still R+3), but he made it official earlier this week.

• AR-St. House: Here’s one I’m still trying to wrap my head around: until this week, there was actually a Green Party member in a state House of Representatives. And it wasn’t Vermont, Maine, or Oregon: it was Arkansas, of all places. Well, that ended this week, as State Rep. Richard Carroll of North Little Rock switches to the Democratic Party today. (The effect of the switch is minimal: Dems now control the House 75-25.)

• Swingnuts’ Delight: Everything you ever wanted to know about the awesome delicacy that is chocolate babka. Stick around here long enough and DavidNYC might send you one! (Hat-tip: reader RC)

• NY-20 (pdf): There’s light at the end of the tunnel in the NY-20 count, and as we get closer, Scott Murphy’s numbers keep going up. This morning’s BoE tally gives him a lead of 167, following the addition of more votes from Columbia, Dutchess, and Warren Counties (all of which Murphy won on Election Day).

Apparently all Saratoga County votes are accounted for, except for 700 challenged ballots, which, thanks to yesterday’s court ruling, will be counted. (While Saratoga County in general is Jim Tedisco’s turf, the Tedisco camp’s heavy use of challenges of student votes suggests that these votes may include a lot of votes from artsy Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, which one would expect to lean Democratic.)

• CO-Sen: Finally, a GOPer commits to the Colorado senate race against appointee Michael Bennet. It’s Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, who made his announcement while teabagging in Grand Junction. Frazier is 31 and African-American, so he brings an interesting backstory to the race, but it’s unclear whether his strength among conservative activists can overcome his otherwise low profile in the GOP primary (assuming anyone else bothers to show up).

• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac takes another look at the Florida senate race; not much has changed since last time, although one noteworthy finding is that Floridians would prefer to see Charlie Crist remain as governor rather than jump to senate, by a 42-26 margin. That doesn’t stop him from crushing in the senate primary (Crist beats Marco Rubio and Vern Buchanan 54-8-8). Buchanan leads a Crist-free primary, while on the Dem side, Kendrick Meek narrowly leads Pam Iorio (16-15, with 8 for Ron Klein, 5 from Dan Gelber, and a whole lotta undecideds).

• PA-Sen: John Peterson isn’t a make-or-break endorsement, but the former GOP representative from rural PA-05 said that he won’t support Arlen Specter’s re-election bid in 2010. He stopped short of endorsing Pat Toomey (Peterson supported Specter in the 2004 primary), but said it was time for Specter to retire. In other completely unsurprising endorsement news, the Club for Growth (of which Pat Toomey was president until several days ago) today endorsed Toomey’s bid. Laugh all you want, but Toomey will need all the financial help he can get; Specter hauled in $1.3 million in Q1 and is sitting on $6.7 million CoH.

• TX-Sen: Our friends at Burnt Orange Report have a nice graph showing Bill White and John Sharp dominating the fundraising chase so far in the hypothetical Texas senate race. (The chart doesn’t include GOP heavyweights Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and AG Greg Abbott, who haven’t taken formal steps for the race, but whose cash stashes are state-specific, putting them back to fundraising square one if they ran for senate.)

• CT-Sen: If Chris Dodd is going to win again in 2010, it’s going to be on the back of money, not popularity. Luckily, he still has lots of the former, as big-money donors aren’t being scared off by his poll numbers: he raised $1 million in the first quarter, with $1.4 million CoH.

• MN-Sen (pdf): Minnesotans would like the madness to stop, and would like to have a 2nd senator. PPP finds that 63% think that Norm Coleman should concede right now, and 59% (including 54% of independents) think Tim Pawlenty should sign Al Franken’s certificate of election right now. (This should give Pawlenty some pause as to whether or not to create further delay in the name of partisan politics, as he’s about the only person left who can drag this out.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $542K in the first quarter, only about half of what Robin Carnahan raised. Our JeremiahTheMessiah came up with the best possible headline for this story:

Carnahan Smokes Blunt… In Fundraising

• GA-Gov: As reported in the diaries yesterday by fitchfan28, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropped out of the gubernatorial race, citing health concerns. Cagle was more-or-less front-runner, and his departure leaves SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to slug it out for the GOP.

• IL-10, PA-07: Two huge fundraising hauls (by House standards) from two candidates who may be looking to move up. Mark Kirk, who pulled in $696K in the first quarter, is supposed to decide soon whether or not to try for IL-Sen. (He has only $597K CoH, though, after burning through all his cash defending his seat in 2008. So he may just be raising hard in expectation of another top-tier challenge in 2010 in this blue district.)

Joe Sestak raised $550K in the first quarter, leaving him sitting on a mongo $3.3 million. Could this… plus his suddenly increased media presence, as he talks the defense budget and Don’t Ask Don’t Tell… be tea leaves that he may be the Dem who jumps into PA-Sen after all? (Sestak has previously declined, and he’s always been mentioned as an afterthought in this race after Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy. But neither of them have made any moves, leaving Joe Torsella the only Dem challenger so far.)

• Numbers: California’s Secretary of State office finally released its Supplement to the Statement of Vote, heaven for nerds. Now you can look up Presidential and Prop 8 votes not just by congressional district, but by state senate or assembly district or even Board of Equalization district.

{Originally posted with poll at my blog Senate Guru.  Head over to vote in the poll.}

With conservative former Congressman Pat Toomey set to challenge incumbent Arlen Specter in the 2010 Republican Senate primary, I think it’s safe to assume that we’ll see a bloodbath in which Specter is labeled a convictionless flip-flopper and Toomey is dubbed an unelectable right-winger.  No doubt both Specter and Toomey will spend the bulk of their resources just to get through the primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee politically battered and financially near-broke, having to re-build a bankroll from almost scratch.

Naturally, this raises the question: who do you want the Democratic nominee to be?  With the Republican nominee starting the general election in rough shape from a bloody primary, and with Pennsylvania Democrats continuing to grow their voter registration edge over Pennsylvania Republicans, Democrats are in the driver’s seat.  Without further ado, here is the cattle call of potential candidates, in alphabetical order:

District Attorney Lynne Abraham

During late-December of last year, both KYW Newsradio 1060 Philadelphia and CBS-3 Philadelphia reported that District Attorney Abraham was considering a bid.  As for bio, she was head of the Philadelphia Redevelopment Authority in the 1970’s and subsequently a judge on the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas.  She has been District Attorney of the City of Philadelphia since 1991 and has won four elections during her tenure – but she has already announced that she is not running for re-election to the post this year.  A knock on her as a candidate, though, is related to the strength of her resume: in 2010, she will turn 69-years-old.  I don’t imagine she’d plan on seeking several six-year terms to build her seniority.

State Representative Dwight Evans

The 54-year-old State Representative is a powerhouse in the state Legislature as the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, having served in the state House for nearly thirty years, but has also had his share of electoral losses.  He finished third in the 1986 Democratic primary for Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, finished third in the 1994 Democratic gubernatorial primary, and had fifth-place showings in two crowded Philadelphia Mayoral runs in 1999 and 2007.  Still as the Democrats’ Appropriations chief for nearly twenty of his thirty years in the state House, he has wielded considerable power for a long time.  The Executive Director of the PA-Dems was talking Representative Evans up this past January as a possible 2010 Senate candidate.  Representative Evans has done a great deal to improve Philadelphians’ lives, but has had difficulty translating that success in bids for higher office.

Congressman Patrick Murphy

At only 35-years-old, Congressman Murphy, an Iraq War veteran now serving his second term in Congress, is considered a rising star in the Party.  Some of his pluses are quite obvious: his military experience brings unique perspective and his relative youth would allow him to build seniority over the years for Pennsylvania.  According to the National Journal’s 2008 Vote Ratings, Congressman Murphy was the 187th most liberal member and the 240th most conservative member – in other words, he was fairly centrist.  Given the political carnage that is expected at the end of Specter-Toomey: The Sequel, PA-Dems may want to elect someone more liberal than Congressman Murphy has been.  Also, while Congressman Murphy appears to be a more-than-decent fundraiser, as of the end of 2008, he had just under $150,000 on hand, with just over $100,000 in debt, which means he’s starting from nearly scratch on the money front.

Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz

Now serving in her third term, Congresswoman Schwartz is one of only two women in Pennsylvania’s Congressional delegation.  Her bio includes: executive director of the Elizabeth Blackwell Center, a Planned parenthood clinic in Philadelphia, ’75-’88; acting Deputy Commissioner of the Philadelphia Department of Human Services, ’88-’90; State Senator, ’91-’04; Congresswoman, ’05-present.  According to the National Journal’s 2008 Vote Ratings, Congresswoman Schwartz was the 112th most liberal member and the 316th most conservative member, i.e.she was a bit to Congressman Murphy’s political left.  Also, known for being a strong fundraiser, she closed out 2008 with just under $2 million on hand and no debt.  On Election Day 2010, Congresswoman Schwartz will be 62-years-old, suggesting perhaps only a tenure of two-terms tops if she ran.

Congressman Joe Sestak

The 57-year-old military veteran is in his second term in Congress.  After graduating from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1974, Congressman Sestak picked up an M.P.A. and a Ph.D. from Harvard before embarking on an impressive naval career.  According to the National Journal’s 2008 Vote Ratings, Congressman Sestak was the 150th most liberal member and the 277th most conservative member, putting him in between Congressman Murphy and Congresswoman Schwartz in the ranking.  Also a very solid fundraiser, Congressman Sestak ended 2008 with over $2.9 million on hand and no debt.  Back in December, Congressman Sestak’s office suggested that he wouldn’t be a candidate for Senate in 2010; however, with the new political dynamic of the combative Republican primary, perhaps Congressman Sestak might reconsider.

State Representative Josh Shapiro

Like Congressman Murphy, Representative Shapiro is only 35-years-old.  He is in his third term in the state Legislature, and was named Deputy Speaker of the House in his second term.  Prior to his time in the state Legislature, Representative Shapiro spent about eight years on Capitol Hill working for several elected officials, including service as Chief of Staff to Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Arlen Specter’s last Democratic opponent.  Representative Shapiro has met with the DSCC to discuss a possible bid; and, he has begun an aggressive outreach campaign to determine whether or not he’ll run.

State Board of Education Chairman Joe Torsella

The 45-year-old Torsella has worn many hats: state Board of Education Chairman, President and CEO of the National Constitution Center, and Deputy Mayor for Policy and Planning for the City of Philadelphia under then-Mayor and now-Governor Ed Rendell.  He also ran for Congress in 2004 and narrowly lost the Democratic primary to now-Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, who won her first term in that election cycle.  He is also the only announced candidate for Senate in 2010 on the Democratic side, though he has yet to launch a campaign website (that I can find, anyway) despite having announced two months ago.  It is rumored that Torsella enjoys the support of Governor Rendell’s political machine behind the scenes.  Through contacts from his numerous civic roles and possible assistance from the Rendell machine, Torsella was able to raise a respectable $600,000 in Q1 (having only started campaign fundraising in mid-February).  The amount is enough to demonstrate capable fundraising, but far from strong enough to scare off primary challengers, especially members of Congress with seven-figure campaign bankrolls.

State Auditor Jack Wagner

Auditor Wagner began serving as a statewide official in this capacity in 2005, succeeding Bob Casey Jr., who, of course, defeated Republican Rick Santorum for Senate in 2006.  Prior to his tenure as Auditor, Wagner spent a little over a decade in the Pennsylvania state Senate.  Auditor Wagner is also a Purple Heart recipient from his time with the Marine Corps in Vietnam.  Auditor Wagner is the only person on this list from western Pennsylvania, which could provide a geographic advantage.  On Election Day 2010, Auditor Wagner will be 62-years-old, like Congresswoman Schwartz, suggesting a limit to his possible tenure in the Senate.  Additionally, it’s been reported that Auditor Wagner has told friends that he will not run for the Senate seat.

Former State Treasurer Robin Wiessmann

Former Treasurer Wiessman had a largely financial services background before filling the remainder of Bob Casey’s Treasurer term after he ascended to the U.S. Senate.  She spent the 90’s as President of Artemis Capital Group and went on to serve as a Vice-president at Goldman Sachs.  She also put in a stint as Deputy Director of Finance for the City of Philadelphia.  If Wiessman was interested in a prolonged political career, one suspects that she would have run for Treasurer last year instead of ceding the office, though.  If she does decide to run, fundraising won’t be as difficult as it would be for other first-time candidates as her husband is reportedly a major Democratic fundraiser.

With Governor Ed Rendell serious about retiring from electoral politics and with current state Treasurer Rob McCord in only his fourth month in the role and having expressed no interest in a Senate bid thus far, this appears to be the pool from which a Democratic nominee will arise.  You’re encouraged to make your case for your candidate in the comments.  If there is someone you would like to see as the Democratic nominee in PA-Sen who hasn’t been listed, share your thoughts in the comments, as well.

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

As I’d promised in my diary on New Jersey, Pennsylvania would be the next state I’d tackle. This would  have been done a lot sooner, but those things called work and exams kind of got in the way….

My goal, flat out, was to carve more Democratic districts. I’m all for compactness when it comes to suitcases and mp3’s, but not when I’m gerrymandering states. Again, I kept Democratic Congresscritters in their homes.

Unlike New Jersey though, Pennsylvania is probably maxed-out when it comes to Democrats (save Gerlach and Dent, whose districts are certainly Democratic.) Pennsylvania is also losing one seat (most likely) in 2010, so I drew 18 seats on 2008 population estimates. I didn’t “merge” two districts per se, but more like took the 16th, 17th, and 19th and produced two districts from them.

I had the following goals in mind:

• Dislodge Gerlach (6th) and Dent (15th) by increasing Democratic performance in their districts.

• Give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more favorable territory. They represent McCain districts now, I wanted to change those to Obama districts.

• Maintain strength for Sestak (7th), Patrick Murphy (8th), Kanjorski (11th), and Schwartz (13th). They have decently strongly Democratic districts, which I wanted to maintain at their current levels.

• Keep Brady (1st), Fattah (2nd), and Doyle (14th) in strongly Democratic districts, but perhaps not as absurdly strong as before. Obama scored 88%, 90%, and 70% respectively, I felt this could afford to be lowered somewhat. A corollary to this goal is keeping Fattah’s district majority Black. I didn’t bother with Brady’s currently plurality Black district, though it may still be.

Here’s the new map (click for full-size version):

Much more below the flip.

Again, to start, I used this map of Obama’s performance across the state, by municipality. As before, lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5 to 15, 15 to 25, 25 to 35, and the new uber-dark, which is a margin of 35+.

Going district by district, here’s what we’ve got. As a sidenote, I didn’t bother renumbering districts to make sense (which they don’t right now). I think it’s easier to keep core areas the same when numbering, since I think most of us automatically relate, for example, “PA-14” to Pittsburgh.

Summary statistics are: County, Population, Obama Votes, McCain Votes, Total Votes, Obama%, McCain%.

I’m going to go Northwest to Southeast, as opposed to in order by non-sensical district number. I think that makes the most sense.

Sad to say, this district probably isn’t much more gerrymandered than its current counterpart. It contains the entirety of Erie and Crawford counties in the northwest, and starts a slow march towards State College. I’d hate to leave those Democratic votes behind, and plus they’re a good way to shore up Dahlkemper’s district, which Obama lost by 17 votes. It takes in the Democratic parts of Centre and Clinton counties on the east end, with some arms into Clarion and Venango. I’d like to think I succeeded, since Obama scored 45% in the 3rd’s part of Venango and 50% in Clarion, compared to 35% and 33% in the parts not in the 3rd. All in all, a 54% Obama district – a 6% increase from its current form.

4		689,397	182,724	168,763	356,152	51.31%	47.39%
	Allegheny	389,960	110,152	102,177	214,148	51.44%	47.71%
	Beaver	149,042	36,109	35,781	73,326	49.24%	48.80%
	Lawrence	75,681	17,041	16,670	34,362	49.59%	48.51%
	Mercer	74,714	19,422	14,135	34,316	56.60%	41.19%

Altmire is pretty much in the same boat as Dahlkemper, except with a district that Obama lost 44-55. There’s no need to complicate this by including any parts of Butler County, so this district sticks along the Ohio, Beaver, and Shenango Rivers up from Pittsburgh (but not including) to Sharon, through Allegheny, Beaver, Lawrence, and Mercer counties. It’s a point of pride for me that Obama won each county component. Specifically in Allegheny County, Altmire swaps out a bunch of Republican northern suburbs for friendlier stuff east of the city, notably Monroeville and Penn Hills. Obama scored 44% in the Allegheny portion of the old 4th, compard to 51% here. If Altmire didn’t live in Republican-leaning McCandless, there could have perhaps been more improvement. Anyways, this works out to a 51% Obama district – an improvement of 7%.

18		689,231	136,738	218,177	359,372	38.05%	60.71%
	Allegheny	127,747	30,252	41,789	72,634	41.65%	57.53%
	Beaver	24,444	4,390	7,114	11,706	37.50%	60.77%
	Butler	181,082	32,260	57,074	90,761	35.54%	62.88%
	Greene	13,925	2,072	2,748	4,892	42.35%	56.17%
	Lawrence	16,216	2,670	5,181	7,987	33.43%	64.87%
	Mercer	25,909	4,147	8,239	12,668	32.74%	65.04%
	Washington	82,349	18,019	27,503	46,141	39.05%	59.61%
	Westmoreland	217,559	42,928	68,529	112,583	38.13%	60.87%

This district is what happens when you try to strip all the Republican territory out of the 3rd, 4th, and 12th districts and pack it together. Butler County has no place in a Democratic district, nor does the large chunk of Westmoreland County which is quickly trending away from us. Throw in some the northern Pittsburgh suburbs stripped out of Altmire’s district and the core of Tim Murphy’s old district, and you get this 38% – an 8% drop in Democratic performance.

14		688,540	227,685	124,055	355,158	64.11%	34.93%
	Allegheny	688,540	227,685	124,055	355,158	64.11%	34.93%

The 14th doesn’t change much – it keeps the entirety of the city of Pittsburgh and suburbs to the east like Swissvale and Doyle’s home in Forest Hills. Instead of reaching southwest, the new 14th looks south to the southern Pittsburgh suburbs like Upper St. Clair and Bethel Park. Arguably, this district is actually more compact than the current 14th. No worries for Mike F. Doyle though, since Obama still won 55% in the non-Pittsburgh part of the district.  Combine that with the 75% Obama scored in the city, and you get a 64% Democratic district, a drop of 6%.

12		689,579	146,095	143,358	294,030	49.69%	48.76%
	Allegheny	19,931	4,385	3,865	8,347	52.53%	46.30%
	Armstrong	26,485	5,114	6,186	11,454	44.65%	54.01%
	Cambria	131,716	29,955	28,623	59,705	50.17%	47.94%
	Fayette	135,292	24,805	23,726	49,108	50.51%	48.31%
	Greene	25,794	5,757	5,141	11,084	51.94%	46.38%
	Indiana	55,368	12,477	12,254	25,068	49.77%	48.88%
	Somerset	26,108	5,709	6,599	12,656	45.11%	52.14%
	Washington	122,958	28,100	23,199	52,318	53.71%	44.34%
	Westmoreland	145,927	29,793	33,765	64,290	46.34%	52.52%

It’s no secret Obama didn’t do all that hot in Southwest PA, and it’s painfully obvious here. Kerry won the old 12th, which Obama lost by about 1,000 votes. Trying to create an Obama district required some creative districting and ends up being more like connect-the-dots between traditionally Democratic Fayette and Greene counties, Johnstown (Murtha’s residence), Washington, the college town of Indiana, and Lower Burrell in Westmoreland. The old 12th pretty much packed all the Democratic votes in the area, so the increased population requirement really made me stretch. I think again, I have a strong case for this being more compact than the old 12th. Either way, it’s a slight improvement to a district Obama won by 3,000 votes, an improvement of 0.5%.

9		689,087	102,284	191,267	298,149	34.31%	64.15%
	Adams	5,926	1,018	1,671	2,739	37.17%	61.01%
	Armstrong	42,940	6,024	12,356	18,627	32.34%	66.33%
	Bedford	49,650	6,059	16,124	22,508	26.92%	71.64%
	Blair	125,593	19,813	32,708	53,298	37.17%	61.37%
	Cambria	14,271	2,496	3,372	5,965	41.84%	56.53%
	Clarion	28,186	4,045	8,111	12,435	32.53%	65.23%
	Clearfield	33,268	5,672	8,599	14,588	38.88%	58.95%
	Cumberland	19,402	3,428	4,426	7,976	42.98%	55.49%
	Fayette	9,667	1,090	2,054	3,172	34.36%	64.75%
	Franklin	139,459	21,169	41,906	63,641	33.26%	65.85%
	Fulton	14,261	1,576	4,642	6,306	24.99%	73.61%
	Huntingdon	45,552	6,621	11,745	18,730	35.35%	62.71%
	Indiana	32,520	4,588	7,473	12,236	37.50%	61.07%
	Jefferson	45,151	6,447	12,057	18,904	34.10%	63.78%
	Somerset	52,087	7,169	15,087	22,712	31.56%	66.43%
	Venango	31,154	5,069	8,936	14,312	35.42%	62.44%

Moving into the ‘T’ now, this is the first of two extremely Republican districts. Arguably, there are two population centers, one in Altoona in Blair County and the other in Chambersburg in Franklin. From there, it moves northwest, picking up the parts of Somerset, Cambria, Indiana, and Armstrong not packed into Murtha’s 12th, and then the parts of Venango and Clarion not in Dahlkemper’s 3rd. At 34% Obama, this is the most Republican district in Pennsylvania and a 1% drop from the current 9th.

5		689,043	114,992	195,836	315,767	36.42%	62.02%
	Berks	9,899	993	2,312	3,366	29.50%	68.69%
	Centre	46,567	8,837	11,902	21,089	41.90%	56.44%
	Clearfield	9,696	1,511	2,228	3,839	39.36%	58.04%
	Clinton	10,002	1,540	2,434	4,024	38.27%	60.49%
	Cumberland	199,164	43,028	57,531	102,130	42.13%	56.33%
	Dauphin	43,419	8,423	15,149	23,834	35.34%	63.56%
	Juniata	23,163	3,068	6,484	9,819	31.25%	66.04%
	Lebanon	53,875	9,202	16,904	26,528	34.69%	63.72%
	Lycoming	49,426	7,076	15,691	23,131	30.59%	67.84%
	McKean	23,852	2,886	5,596	8,645	33.38%	64.73%
	Mifflin	46,609	5,375	10,929	16,502	32.57%	66.23%
	Montour	3,868	590	1,167	1,771	33.31%	65.89%
	Northumberland	22,909	3,245	6,360	9,734	33.34%	65.34%
	Perry	44,850	6,396	13,058	19,745	32.39%	66.13%
	Potter	18,080	2,300	5,109	7,583	30.33%	67.37%
	Schuylkill	10,533	1,776	3,294	5,139	34.56%	64.10%
	Snyder	23,134	2,499	6,442	9,069	27.56%	71.03%
	Tioga	24,641	3,610	7,527	11,305	31.93%	66.58%
	Union	25,356	2,637	5,719	8,514	30.97%	67.17%

The is the other Republican district taking in a large chunk of the T. More packing of Republicans here, as this district on the east side swaps many tentacles with Chris Carney’s new 10th district. Any pockets of even-remotely Democratic friendliness are pulled out, including Williamsport and Sunbury. What’s left is expansive Republican space, centered in Cumberland County moving north towards the Northern Tier. At 36% Obama, this is a drop of 8%.

10		688,967	134,946	156,456	296,409	45.53%	52.78%
	Berks	8,704	1,724	2,167	3,995	43.15%	54.24%
	Bradford	61,626	10,306	15,057	25,884	39.82%	58.17%
	Columbia	64,663	13,019	14,255	27,838	46.77%	51.21%
	Dauphin	5,728	823	1,231	2,073	39.70%	59.38%
	Lackawanna	44,778	13,784	10,806	24,913	55.33%	43.37%
	Luzerne	11,637	2,044	3,020	5,153	39.67%	58.61%
	Lycoming	67,880	11,305	14,589	26,316	42.96%	55.44%
	Montour	14,368	2,757	3,388	6,216	44.35%	54.50%
	Northumberland	68,307	11,083	12,655	24,201	45.80%	52.29%
	Pike	57,102	11,493	12,519	24,285	47.33%	51.55%
	Schuylkill	108,170	20,758	23,247	44,766	46.37%	51.93%
	Snyder	14,849	2,883	3,458	6,410	44.98%	53.95%
	Sullivan	6,556	1,233	1,841	3,131	39.38%	58.80%
	Susquehanna	41,388	8,381	10,633	19,383	43.24%	54.86%
	Tioga	16,194	2,780	3,799	6,679	41.62%	56.88%
	Union	17,997	4,696	4,140	8,961	52.40%	46.20%
	Wayne	51,139	9,892	12,702	22,932	43.14%	55.39%
	Wyoming	27,881	5,985	6,949	13,273	45.09%	52.35%

You can’t win all of them, and this is the one district that wasn’t to my liking. I really wanted to protect Carney a bit more, but the territory simply wasn’t there to do that and protect the Democratic strength of Kanjorski’s 11th. I chose to hedge a bit and to keep the 11th strongly Democratic. It might be a waste to protect Kanjorski like that, but he’s got to retire eventually and we can definitely get a good Democrat out of Scranton. Thus, this district starts in Wayne and Pike counties, before moving through Susquehanna (Carney lives in Dimock) and northern Lackawanna counties. Lycoming County outside of Williamsport is stripped out as much as possible, and it gains Columbia County and a large chunk of Schuylkill County freed up from Holden’s 17th. Surprisingly, I still managed a gain of 0.5% to 45.5% Obama. Carney should be fine here regardless.

11		689,582	177,101	128,039	309,934	57.14%	41.31%
	Carbon	62,326	13,464	12,957	27,050	49.77%	47.90%
	Lackawanna	164,442	53,736	28,682	83,626	64.26%	34.30%
	Luzerne	300,203	70,448	58,107	130,815	53.85%	44.42%
	Monroe	162,611	39,453	28,293	68,443	57.64%	41.34%

Kanjorski was probably saved in 2008 by Obama’s coattails, and shoring up the 11th was one of my major goals. Surprisingly, this actually becomes more compact, too, it seems. What we get is a district centered on the Lackawanna Valley. 43% of this district is Wilkes-Barre and Luzerne County, and another 23% each for Scranton/Lackawanna County and Monroe County. All in all, a 57% Obama district, up 0.3% from the old 11th. Also a rare victory for compactness.

17		689,314	176,601	148,808	329,673	53.57%	45.14%
	Berks	52,440	11,062	13,461	24,959	44.32%	53.93%
	Cumberland	6,969	1,850	1,782	3,719	49.74%	47.92%
	Dauphin	199,854	59,866	40,264	101,138	59.19%	39.81%
	Lancaster	229,139	60,406	52,477	114,386	52.81%	45.88%
	Lebanon	72,551	14,108	17,410	32,035	44.04%	54.35%
	Schuylkill	28,135	5,938	7,418	13,522	43.91%	54.86%
	York	100,226	23,371	15,996	39,914	58.55%	40.08%

Connect the dots version 2.0 here, as we string together the cities of York, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Tim Holden’s home in St. Clair in Schuylkill County, all of which are strongly Democratic. They’re counterbalanced by the Republican outlying portions of York, Dauphin, and Lancaster counties, though. However, 59% Obama performances in the 17th’s parts of Dauphin and York and a 53% showing in Lancaster anchor this 54% Obama district on balance, an improvement of 6% from the current 17th.

16		688,715	118,510	197,429	320,910	36.93%	61.52%
	Adams	93,986	16,615	24,678	41,924	39.63%	58.86%
	Berks	9,821	2,245	3,260	5,596	40.12%	58.26%
	Chester	1,059	243	552	806	30.15%	68.49%
	Dauphin	5,275	759	1,576	2,362	32.13%	66.72%
	Lancaster	264,774	39,180	74,091	114,863	34.11%	64.50%
	York	313,800	59,468	93,272	155,359	38.28%	60.04%

This is what remains of the old 16th and 19th districts once the Democratic cities are stripped out. There’s really not much to say about this district based in York and Lancaster, except that it’s the last “Republican” district we have to talk about, it only gets better from here. At 37% Obama, it’s a drop of 6% from the old 19th and 10% from the old 16th – which was intentional, of course.

15		688,754	177,367	136,903	318,961	55.61%	42.92%
	Berks	65,559	15,023	14,970	30,535	49.20%	49.03%
	Lehigh	333,423	87,089	63,382	152,473	57.12%	41.57%
	Northampton	289,772	75,255	58,551	135,953	55.35%	43.07%

Starting with the Lehigh Valley, the 15th continues to have the entirety of Northampton County. Lehigh County did have a bite taken out of it by the old pterodactyl of the 6th, but the Lehigh in its entirety stays here too. Instead of reaching into MontCo with two rods hugging the MontCo-Berks and MontCo-BucksCo line, it goes for Bucks County instead. At 56% Obama, this is a slight improvement. Charlie Dent should be gone as soon as we get a good challenger anyway.

Southeast PA is definitely (in my mind, anyway), the coup de grace of this map. Here’s an inset of that:

Each district is colored by county component: all greens are the 6th or 8th, blues are the 7th or 13th, red is the 1st, and yellow is the 2nd.

First, the boring stuff (i.e. the 1st and 2nd):

1		689,174	266,010	78,010	347,098	76.64%	22.47%
	Delaware	208,267	65,596	42,719	109,675	59.81%	38.95%
	Philadelphia	480,907	200,414	35,291	237,423	84.41%	14.86%

Bob Brady’s district remains anchored in South Philly with an arm into Delaware County. The composition of this arm, however, is significantly different. Brady swaps with Sestak some cities (notably strongly-Democratic Chester city) for some Republican leaning parts of the Main Line. Brady’s old 1st had a 89% Democratic section of DelCo, the new 1st has a 60% Democratic section. This lowers Democratic performance by about 11%, down to 77%. Brady need not be concerned.

2		688,659	303,286	34,983	339,990	89.20%	10.29%
	Philadelphia	688,659	303,286	34,983	339,990	89.20%	10.29%

No significant changes for Chaka Fattah. His district still contains most of West Philly. Cheltenham in MontCo is removed, substituted for an arm into Northeast Philly. The changes aren’t all that significant, the district is only down 0.85% in Obama performance.

8		686,233	199,224	162,328	365,625	54.49%	44.40%
	Bucks	619,093	179,031	150,248	332,924	53.78%	45.13%
	Montgomery	27,576	7,460	5,533	13,168	56.65%	42.02%
	Philadelphia	39,564	12,733	6,547	19,533	65.19%	33.52%

Consistent with tradition, Bucks County remains in the 8th in its entirety. The old 8th had an odd-looking protrusion into MontCo (where Obama got 63%), and took a section of Northeast Philly where Obama barely edged McCain with 49%. We flip the roles here, instead taking Wards 41 and 65 of the city, where Obama got 65%. We also take a few municipalities (funnily, Hatfield Twp, Hatfield Boro, and Hatboro Boro) in MontCo, where Obama got 57%. Overall, Obama got 54.5%, up 0.5%.

13		688,902	224,312	140,834	368,302	60.90%	38.24%
	Montgomery	443,652	144,765	100,434	247,223	58.56%	40.62%
	Philadelphia	245,250	79,547	40,400	121,079	65.70%	33.37%

The 13th remains a MontCo-Philly hybrid. It takes in more of MontCo now, consistent with the increased population constraint, reaching all the way to the Berks County Line. Instead of reaching through the city, the new 13th no longer touches the Delaware River, stopping short by grabbing Northeast Philly taken from the 8th. Centered in Abingdon (it’s the largest municipality), the new 13th’s section of MontCo is 59% Obama, up from 57%, and the new 13th’s section of Philly is 66% Obama, up from 60%. Together, this makes for a 61% Obama district, up from 58%.

7		689,283	219,653	154,096	377,651	58.16%	40.80%
	Chester	211,997	66,693	57,071	125,146	53.29%	45.60%
	Delaware	345,246	113,274	72,554	187,835	60.31%	38.63%
	Montgomery	132,040	39,686	24,471	64,670	61.37%	37.84%

The new 7th stays composed of ChesCo, DelCo, and MontCo. Since more of DelCo is given to Brady’s 1st, this district becomes more Chester County heavy, reaching further north and west into the county. It, incidentally, takes Jim Gerlach’s home in West Pikeland Township here. Even so, the new ChesCo portion is 53% Obama, up from 50%. The DelCo section gets a healthy boost from the city of Chester while keeping in Radnor, Haverford, and Upper Darby along the Main Line. The New DelCo section is 60% Obama, up from 56%. The MontCo part remains mostly the same, taking in Norristown, Upper Merion, and Lower and Upper Providence Townships. Combined, this is a 58% Obama district, up 2.5%.

6		688,652	198,024	136,472	338,576	58.49%	40.31%
	Berks	251,731	66,000	44,343	112,060	58.90%	39.57%
	Chester	265,765	70,897	56,798	129,300	54.83%	43.93%
	Montgomery	171,156	61,127	35,331	97,216	62.88%	36.34%

My favorite district. The pterodactyl is back (hence the title, get it?), and it’s leaner and meaner (to Republicans, anyway). The body remains majority Chester, but it swaps out a large swath of eastern ChesCo for townships along the Lancaster County line freed up from the 16th. It still, however, keeps Democratic centers in Downington and Coatesville, and adds West Chester proper, which was gerrymandered into the 16th before. Obama performed roughly the same in the old and new Chester part.

As before, the left wing reaches into Berks County, but before, Reading was cracked three ways between the 6th, 16th, and 17th. Now, Reading and its 81% Obama goodness are kept whole in this district, raising Obama’s performance in Berks from 54% to 59%. The right arm is still my favorite. Originally, Republicans conceived of this as a way to crack MontCo into two Republican (PA-06, PA-07) and one swing district (PA-13). This is best termed, I think, an EPIC FAIL. The old right arm was 64% Obama, and this new version is 63%. I maintained the anchor in Lower Merion Township and Narberth, since their combined 71% Obama goodness is just too good to give up. Combined, this raises Obama’s performance here by another 1% to 58.5%.

So there you have it, a new, 18-seat map for Pennsylvania. Comments? Questions? Which state should I do next? Please share what you think the districts look like, also!

The new Representatives from PA, elected with slim majorities, have a problem, but there’s a solution.

Problem:

We all know what’s happening with congress and fundraising.  It’s become a frequent news story: no sooner are members of the 110th Congress in office than they are required to raise millions for their reelection.  It’s just a question of math: raise as much as possible or you’ll lose, because your opponent will be doing the same thing.  I wrote about Jason Altmire’s experience (D, PA-4) earlier. 

This Tuesday, The Philadelphia Inquirer had a story on the problem Patrick Murphy (D, PA-8)faces:

There’s no such thing as a governing period now? It’s one campaign into the next.  It’s really two full-time jobs – being a congressman and being a candidate.

Jason Altmire and Patrick Murphy are just two vulnerable freshmen who need to raise money to stay in office, from day one.  To win the next election, they are already in full campaign mode, 24/7.  There’s a tension between having time for policy making and raising enough money.

Even though he won in 2006, Altmire was outspent almost 2 to 1.  Murphy raised $2.4 million, a huge sum, but Michael Fitzpatrick had over $3 million at his disposal and that race was decided by 0.6% of the vote (1,521 votes).  Clearly each had a strong message that worked with voters.  Still, with such slim majorities they would have a better chance of securing their reelection if they could spend the next 20 months legislating and communicating their work with constituents without the huge workload of raising several million dollars.

Meanwhile, the Inquirer highlighted another PA congressman’s dilemma.  Joe Sestak (D, PA-7) said:

I know fund-raising is important? but more important is outreach and getting people to know me.? Voters are like sailors.? They want you to look them in the eye, to grasp their concerns, to know you care.

As the paper points out, the former 3-star general knows how to lead and inspire, if he’s given the support and resources to do it.

Solution:

This morning the Philadelphia Daily News endorsed legislation for public financing of congressional elections introduced on Tuesday by a bicameral, bi-partisan team featuring Sens. Dick Durbin and Arlen Specter, and Reps John Tierney, Todd Platts and Raul Grijalva.

The Daily News, The Baltimore Sun, Adam B (on Daily Kos) and a host of other bloggers and journalists are endorsing public financing at the state and national level.  This is great news for the state of the nation, and we need to make sure the momentum grows.

Under public financing, the 2008 races could be spent talking to constituents door-to-door and at town hall meetings, instead of at high-dollar events with a handful of people who are already convinced to vote for them.  In fact, Durbin’s proposals encourage candidates to choose grassroots campaigning because they can qualify for public funds with small donations of $5 from average citizens.  Under public financing, Jason Altmire, Joe Sestak and Patrick Murphy would both have been given matching funds to level the playing field.  How many more voters could they reach in November 2008 with that kind of freedom?