Tag: Minnesota

My campaign manager recently drafted a letter to discuss the electability of my candidacy. Recently, we had a strong showing at the gubernatorial caucuses, stunning the pundits who said we didn’t have a chance.

As the Chief Author of the Minnesota Health Plan, I’ve helped organize over 70 signers onto the bill, including several of my opponents in this primary race. If I have the opportunity to serve as Minnesota’s next Governor, I will push for real changes. That is my promise to you. We will see real change!

I look forward to hearing any questions, comments or concerns relating to the electability of my candidacy and addressing them directly.

I hope you will join us.

Sincerely,

John

—

John Marty

DFL Candidate for Governor

http://www.johnmarty.org  

Traveling around the state, our campaign has heard from countless people who believe in John Marty’s vision, they respect his values, they trust his integrity — they say he could become a truly great governor. However, some say he can’t win.  Some say he’s too nice.

   John is actually more electable than other candidates this year, and here’s why:

   Many independent and Independence Party voters believe that both major parties are controlled by corporate interests and special interest money. John has consistently rejected lobbyist and PAC money, and he has been recognized, time and time again, for his courage and independence in standing up to powerful interests. John is the candidate with the credibility to win over those independents.

   At a time when voters are increasingly cynical about politicians, John has earned a reputation of being trust-worthy and honest. Research has shown that candidates do best, not by appealing to the center, but by holding firm convictions that, while they may be less popular, show evidence of commitment and integrity. John is the candidate who can overcome that cynicism, and win the respect of voters who know he will do what he says.

   Many Green Party members are former DFLers who left the party because it has too often surrendered to political expedience. John is the candidate who has demonstrated the courage of his convictions and speaks to the values of the Green Party.

   Tens of thousands of low-income people who were inspired and came out to vote in 2008 are once again feeling that the political system doesn’t care about them. John’s promise of affordable health care for all, through his single-payer, Minnesota Health Plan can give them renewed hope. His commitment to ending poverty — through his legislation for affordable childcare, living wages, and fair taxes legislation — gives them a chance to see a brighter future ahead. John is the candidate who can inspire and re-engage disenchanted voters.

   So why do some DFLers say that John Marty cannot win? Because John ran for Governor in 1994 and lost by a large margin.

   In that race, John was challenging a popular incumbent governor. And in 1994, the beginning of the Gingrich “revolution,” Republicans saw landslide victories across the country; not a single Republican incumbent in any gubernatorial race or U.S. House or Senate race lost that November. Even so, it wasn’t a perfect campaign. John has acknowledged his mistakes — and learned from them. He is sixteen years older and wiser and has the confidence and experience to match his vision and courage.

   Times change, and in 2010, John Marty is the right person at the right time.

   In recent years, John has repeatedly shown his ability to appeal to independents and Republicans. Although his suburban senate district had a four point Republican edge according to the court redistricting panel,  John has won by large margins — over 62% last time — which means he picks up both independent and Republican votes. John has shown an ability to win — not by avoiding tough issues but through his bold vision and ethical leadership.

   On caucus night, John exceeded expectations, outperforming seven other gubernatorial candidates in the straw poll, without being a wealthy, self-financed candidate, without accepting a penny of special interest money, and without compromising his values.

   We need John to be the DFL candidate for Governor, and delegates around the state are joining forces to see that John receives the party endorsement in April.  Please join us!

   Warm regards,

   Taina Maki

   Campaign Manager

   P.S. Please visit our new website at: JohnMarty.org.

please see my following response to President Barack Obama. I’d love to hear what you think.  Imagine having a governor who fights to put in single-payer healthcare! Imagine the example that Minnesota could provide for the other 49 states? In my 23 years in the state senate, I’ve fought for healthcare for all. As the prime sponsor of the Minnesota Health Plan, I’ve helped organize over 1/3rd of the legislature to co-sponsor the bill.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

Thanks,

John

p.s. Please visit our brand new website at  http://www.johnmarty.org  

Single Payer Solution for Obama

by Senator John Marty

January 29, 2010



“If anyone…has a better approach that will bring down premiums, bring down the deficit, cover the uninsured, strengthen Medicare for seniors, and stop insurance company abuses, let me know.”

— State of the Union

January 27, 2010

An open letter in response to President Obama’s State of the Union request for a better approach to health care reform:

Dear President Obama,

During your State of the Union address, you explained why you are fighting for health care reform, expressed frustration at the lack of success, and invited others to suggest a better approach.

I’m taking you up on that invitation and offer a bold suggestion:

Take a look at our Minnesota Health Plan — a proposal that covers everyone, saves money, and creates a logical health care system to replace the dysfunctional non-system which currently exists. It is a proposal that would provide health care to everyone, not merely health insurance for many. Our MN Health Plan (mnhealthplan.org) could be readily adapted as a nation-wide plan. It would meet each of the five requirements you mentioned in your State of the Union request:

Bring Down Premiums. Most Americans would see a big reduction in premiums because the plan would be significantly cheaper than our current health care non-system. Because the premiums for the MHP would be based on ability to pay, everyone’s premiums would be affordable. Some would pay more, but overall, costs would go down. Most people would save money, while getting the care they need and deserve. The total costs for the plan would be less than we now are paying for premiums, co-pays, deductibles, and taxes for medical programs.

Bring Down the Deficit. By keeping people healthier and by delivering quality health care efficiently, it would save hundreds of billions of dollars for the federal government, and even more for states. For example, by covering chemical dependency treatment and providing comprehensive mental health services, it would cut crime and human service costs (such as out-of-home placement of children), some of the biggest and fastest growing expenses facing state and local governments.

Cover the Uninsured. It would cover the uninsured and the under-insured. In fact it would cover everyone — 100% of the public.

Strengthen Medicare for Seniors (and everyone else). It would cover prescription drugs — with no “doughnut hole.” It would cover long term care, in-home care, dental, eye care, physical therapy, and medical supplies — it would cover all medical needs. And, they would have their choice of doctor, hospital, clinic, dentist — complete freedom to choose their medical providers.

Stop Insurance Company Abuses. There would be no “pre-existing conditions” to worry about, no underwriting, no denials of coverage, no “out of network” problems. I like to use the analogy of police and fire protection. When you return home to find a burglary in process and call 911, the police dispatcher does not ask if you qualify. They do not ask if you have police insurance. They do not ask whether your policy covers home burglary. They don’t ask if you have pre-existing conditions that would disqualify you. They don’t waste time and money having you fill out forms so your insurance company can be billed. The police response does not depend on your insurance status. Everyone is treated equally. It’s the American way. It is time to treat health care the same way.

As a 23 year member of the Minnesota Senate, let me comment briefly on the politics of this proposal:

The MHP is a single payer proposal. You have acknowledged that single payer is the only way to cover everyone. Seven years ago you said that single payer health care is “what I’d like to see. But… we may not get there immediately. Because first we have to take back the White House, we have to take back the Senate, and we have to take back the House.” Now that we have taken back the White House and the Congress, it is time to act.

I recognize, as you do, that you do not have the votes to pass truly universal health care at this time. The insurance and pharmaceutical industries contribute so much to members of Congress — they control the debate — so health care for everyone isn’t even on the table.

This, however, is your opportunity for leadership. If you propose and fight for health care for all, as FDR did with Social Security in 1935, the voters would respond. If you don’t win this year, ask the American people to elect candidates who will stand with you. Make it the issue of the campaign: Health Care for All vs. Health Insurance for Some. Instead of losing Democratic members of Congress this year — as Massachusetts illustrates — you would gain votes and could actually pass the bill next year.

Dr. Martin Luther King stated, “Of all the forms of inequality, injustice in health care is the most shocking and inhumane.”

Almost a half century later, we still have not addressed the injustice in health care that Dr. King described as the most inhumane. Ignoring this injustice is immoral and it is economically unsustainable. People are hurting, some are literally dying, businesses are folding, and it is crushing our national economy.

Please, restore the Hope that you raised in all of us, bring back the inspiration that made the American people so excited by your inauguration. I urge you to step back, reconsider, introduce a health care plan that is truly universal, and fight for it.

Justice requires no less.

Respectfully,

John Marty  

A special election is being held today in MN State Senate district 26 to replace Republican State Senator Dick Day who resigned to become a Lobbiest for the gambling Industry (don’t get me started).

Senate District 26 leans Republican, McCain carried it 50-47, Norm Coleman 43-36-21. Still there is hope, the two State House Reps in the district are Democrats (each Senate district in Minnesota is divided into two house districts).

The Candidates are Democrat Jason Engbrecht, a college physics professor and Faribault School Board member. Republican teabagger and bussinessman Mike Parry. Independence Party member and Waseca mayor Roy Srp (yes that is his last name).

If you want more background on the candidates I suggest you check out a fine local blog, bluestempairie.

http://www.bluestemprairie.com/

You can get the results from the SOS ofice here.

http://electionresults.sos.sta…

To win Engbrecht will have to run up the margin in Rice County, especially the City of Faribault (his hometown). I would guess he will needs at least a 10 point margin in Faribault and 5 points in Rice County as a whole. Engbrecht will have to keep it within 3-5 points in the rest of the District.

The real wildcard is the Independence Party candidate Roy Srp. He is a 3 term mayor of Waseca (3rd largest town in the District) and has more political experiance than either of the major party candidates. Waseca also happens to be the hometown of the Republican Parry. I don’t think Srp can win without any Party machinery behind him but you never know.

Prediction

Engbrecht (D) 37

Parry (R) 32

Srp (I) 31

Polls close 8 central

I wanted to share with you my latest column, cross-posted on other blogs.

Thanks,

John Marty

DFL Candidate for Governor in Minnesota

http://www.johnmarty.org  

An Election, not an Auction

by Senator John Marty

November 2, 2010 is supposed to be an election. Unfortunately, it is beginning to look like an auction, with government for sale to the highest bidders. Powerful interest groups buy favors with big campaign contributions.

Special interest money is a dominant force in determining who wins elections and even who runs for office. And it doesn’t simply affect who gets into office. Once elections are over, special interest money influences who chairs legislative committees, who has the ear of powerful lawmakers, which bills receive a hearing, and ultimately what laws are passed. One congressional staffer, after observing the clout of interest groups, said, “If this were NASCAR, members of Congress would have the corporate logos of their sponsors sewn to their jackets.”

It’s an insidious process, in which wealthy interests buy elections and gain access and goodwill through campaign contributions. Most public officials are honorable people who would never “sell their vote.” But this system has a very real, albeit subconscious, impact even on well-meaning public officials.

We can change this and we must change it. In the Minnesota Senate, I have been a leader, authoring campaign finance reform legislation to drive special interest money out. Politicians understandably want the money, because campaigns are expensive, and without the special interest money, they feel they cannot win. That’s why reforms that put in public financing and limit spending are essential. With reform, politicians can win elections without taking the special interest money.

Let me give three examples of the problem: special interest money is destroying our environment, crushing health care reform, and buying big taxpayer subsidies.

Special interest money is destroying our environment. It is the reason we cannot pass basic environmental protection legislation in Minnesota, even though DFLers have a two-to-one margin in the Senate, and almost that in the House. The powerful interests fighting environmental legislation make generous contributions to both Republican and DFL legislative caucuses. Consequently, it is no surprise that legislative leaders appoint committee chairs and structure committees in a manner that won’t upset those donors too much.

Likewise for health care reform. Even with all the talk about “universal” health care in Washington, there is not a single proposal to provide universal care under consideration. Even before the legislative compromising began, the Obama proposal with the public option was estimated to cover only 94% of the public, leaving 6% with no care, and many more whose insurance doesn’t cover the care they need. That’s not exactly universal.

So why isn’t universal health care on the table? Senator Max Baucus, the chair of the committee that wrote the Senate legislation, refused to consider it. Is it any surprise that Baucus wants to require people to buy insurance, instead of providing universal health care, when he has received hundreds of thousands of dollars from the health insurance lobby? Not surprisingly, the insurance lobby’s money goes to all the key lawmakers involved in the health reform debate.

Special interests are brazenly buying taxpayer subsidies. Four years ago, Zygi Wilf and his family, the owners of the Minnesota Vikings, gave $20,000 to both the Minnesota Republican Party and the DFL Party. They gave $10,000 to the DFL legislative caucuses and $12,000 to the Republican ones. In fact, they gave $5000 to both Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty and to his DFL challenger.

Why would they give massive amounts to both parties? Because they want as much as $700 million in public money to subsidize a new stadium. They haven’t won yet, but their proposal is getting a lot of attention at the capitol this year despite the worst budget crisis in memory.

Political insiders are so accustomed to lobbyists and interest groups bearing contributions that many have been desensitized to this influence peddling. Picture what would happen if the Wilf family made similar contributions to NFL officials before the next Vikings game.

A referee taking the money wouldn’t be saluted as a successful participant by either the NFL or its fans. He would be thrown out of his job. The conflict of interest is obvious.

But in politics, unlike football, the special interests who give the most aren’t thrown out in disgrace. They are actually admired for their clout. Candidates accepting their contributions are seen as major players because of the amounts they can raise.

This isn’t acceptable. Isn’t fair treatment from our government as important as fair officiating in our football games?

Do we value our democracy so little that we are willing to turn it over to special interests?

It doesn’t have to be this way. Replacing special interest money with publicly funded campaigns would cost a fraction of what taxpayers pay in subsidies, tax loopholes and other give-aways that special interests buy. And the benefits of a clean environment and a health care system that works for everyone? That’s priceless.

___________



Want to join our database for updates on our campaign? Please e-mail campaign@johnmarty.org

Fellow progressives, my name is John Marty; I am entering my 24th year in the Minnesota Senate, where I have fought for social and economic justice since day one.

In the Senate, I’ve championed LGBT rights (I am chief author of marriage equality legislation), I’ve fought for government ethics reform, I’ve designed and authored single-payer healthcare (www.mnhealthplan.org), I’ve taken on powerful interest groups to protect our environment, and I’ve championed legislation to get living wage jobs and move our economy forward. We now have over 70 co-authors on my single payer legislation — over a third of the legislature!

I am a Democratic candidate for Governor in 2010 running on true progressive principles, like Senator Paul Wellstone, principles that I hold with deep conviction. In 1994, I was the DFL nominee for governor, but like many other progressives running that year, the Gingrich Revolution and his “Contract ON America.” made our attempts unsuccessful.”

Never wavering from my progressive principles, we’ve established viability with a team of supporters focused on reclaiming the governorship. With our election, we can have a national impact across this country.

Imagine a governor with the courage to break the insurance industry’s grip on our health care system, passing single payer. Imagine making healthcare a right, not a privilege.

Just imagine what the national implications would be! Imagine the precedent we would set for Democratic Party candidates throughout this country to have a genuine, principled progressive as governor of a state.

Imagine a governor who puts LGBT marriage equality, ethics reform, living wages for workers, and environmental protection, front and center on the state’s agenda.

Over next several months, I will reach out here and on other blogs across the country to keep you updated about our campaign. Please take a minute to read this recent column I wrote about the need for political courage. Feel free to share it with friends.

Thank you and I look forward to reading your comments below.

Sincerely,

John

www.johnmarty.org

The Courage of our Convictions

By Sen. John Marty

   If 21st Century Progressives led the 19th Century Abolition Movement, we’d still have slavery, but we’d have limited it to 40 hour work weeks, and we’d be so proud of the progress we’d made.

   In earlier eras of U.S. history, progressives believed they could fight injustice and move society forward, and they did so. Today however, many progressives have lost faith in their ability to affect significant change. Many are content simply to tinker with problems, whether the issue is getting living wages for work, ending poverty, or removing toxins from our food supply.

   For example, consider universal health care. All progressives claim to support this, but many aren’t willing to fight for it — not because they believe it’s bad policy, but because they believe it is “politically unrealistic.” When our proposed Minnesota Health Plan is offered as a way to deliver universal health care, some dismiss it as legislation that can’t happen for decades. They talk about universal health care but offer and support proposals that are mere band-aids.

   It is instructive to look back to the past. Despite the reality that men were the only ones who held office and the only ones who could vote, suffragettes fought and won the seemingly impossible goal of gaining the right to vote. In the 1960’s civil rights activists believed they could get rid of segregation laws and get equal rights under the law. When told they were expecting change to occur too rapidly, Martin Luther King wrote a book explaining, “Why We Can’t Wait.”

   Today, however, regardless of the speed of other changes in society, many progressives have lost hope. For them, such a book would now be titled, “Why We Need to be Pragmatic and Accept Token Change.”

   This timidity can be explained by decades of defeat at the hands of right wing politicians like Newt Gingrich and Karl Rove, which caused many progressives to retreat from a “Politics of Principle” to a supposed “Politics of Pragmatism” that is not only lacking in courage, but also has been highly ineffective.

   Under the politics of principle, the progressive movement would fight for the goal, using pragmatic politics only to figure out how to promote the message.

   But with the current politics of misguided pragmatism, some progressives calculate what is politically acceptable, and then determine what they will stand for. For example, using this “pragmatism,” President Obama decided to push for health insurance for more instead of health care for all .

   One cannot totally fault the President for failing to push for comprehensive reform. He shied away from principle-based reform because he knows that members of Congress working on health reform take big campaign contributions from the health insurance lobby and other powerful interests. He knows that they are afraid of nasty campaign attacks and believe they need the big money to win reelection.

   “Pragmatically,” Democrats in Washington are pushing for “universal” health care that isn’t universal. They are pushing for reforms that cost more, not less, and policies that focus more on their sense of pragmatism than on real public health and prevention.

   It’s time for progressives to have the courage of our convictions. If we claim to believe in universal health care, we need to fight for it. The MN Health Plan — which covers everyone for all their medical needs, and costs less than we are spending now — is on the table. Those who are not willing to take on the powerful insurance lobby, ought to be honest and admit that reelection and other priorities matter more.

   Refusing to fight for it because it is “not politically realistic” becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Likewise, dismissing it as something that will take decades to pass means leaving the problem to the next generation.

   Whether the issue is living wages for workers, environmental protection, or LGBT equality, many progressives have lost courage. They fight to raise the minimum wage by fifty cents for every dollar that inflation takes away. Even in victory, we accomplish little.

   It is time to move beyond fear and stand up for the principles we say we believe in. Minnesotans deserve nothing less.

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

It’s been almost a year since Election Day 2008, but some of our ’08 champs could still use a little help.  Just sayin’.

As of September 30, 2009:

Democrat	Cash on Hand	Debt	Amount in the Red	Where to Contribute
Al Franken	$242,128	$450,859	$208,731	Contribute to Al
Jeff Merkley	$137,221	$271,589	$134,368	Contribute to Jeff

I’m not saying there aren’t plenty of 2010 candidates that need our help.  (There are!  Please help!)  I’m just saying that helping our previous progressive winners to close their books and retire their debts could encourage other Democrats currently running to follow in more progressive footsteps, knowing we have their backs.

I’ll leave you with a few reasons to be very, very proud of Senator Al Franken’s first months as a U.S. Senator (and very, very motivated to help retire his campaign debt):

And a dash of Senator Merkley for good measure:

Yeah, here’s another Minnesota redistricting…

My 7 seat map can be found here.

I did none of this with a computer program or anything like that.  i was fortunate that MN provides all the info I needed to do this with the MnSOS office providing all the vote totals and also precinct maps of every state house seat, which was the main way I broke down the districts by vote and population when I didnt need to break it down to city/township/precinct level.  The state legislature websites has excellent maps with the two I used constantly were a map of the all the state house seats that also showed city boundaries which made it my go to map for figuring out my planned geography.  More importantly though, a precinct map of the entire state showing election results from dark red to dark blue.  I found county population totals for 2007 and when they broke down beyond that point, I wikipediad it which sometimes included 2006 estimates but mainly for 2000 totals and then I used common sense for population movements, figured out the percentage of growth for that county/area, etc to figure out the 2007 population of said city/precinct.  There is certainly some error involved in this but nothing that would alter more than a couple precincts here or there and then my map accounts for current population movement as opposed to 2000, little bit of a trade off there.

Everything is recorded in excel spreadsheets, they look like a hot mess.

map with county lines can be found here

My CD4 is quite a gerrymander but none of that is essential to district make up.  This map could easily be changed to provide nice clean lines but I wanted to pack Dems and Reps to see what the best case scenarios could be.  Undoing any gerrymanders would still result in my intended goals.

This is map is either a 7/1 or 6/2 map. Bachmann can’t win her district but a more moderate Republican possibly could.  And Kline is now uber safe.  Paulsen is drawn out of his district and could possibly run there, but you’ll see later that the Obama margin for victory there is Philly/Chicago suburb like and he’d probably not bother moving. 7/1 at the best 6/2 at worst.

As for the tables, the first 08 is the new Obama vs McCain percentage for each of my districts, second 08 is what the current district got.  And then the following years are what the current districts got as well with them being the three-way vote.  Then next is population and what each county got in 08 and 04.

MN-1 Rep. Walz	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	651557	50/45.5	51/47	48/52	47/51
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Houston County	19515	54	44	48	51
Winona County	49802	58	39	52	46
Watonwan County	11022	49	48	45	53
Steele County	36378	46	51	56	43
Dodge County	19552	44	54	42	57
Wabasha County	21783	47	50	47	52
Olmsted County	76470	51	47	47	52
Mower County	38040	60	37	61	38
Freeborn County	31257	57	41	55	44
Waseca County	19528	45	53	43	56
Blue Earth County	59802	55	42	48	51
Nicollet County	31680	54	44	50	49
Martin County	20462	41	56	42	57
Brown County	26013	43	55	37	61
Murray County	8511	49	48	44	54
Jackson County	10883	47	51	46	52
Cottonwood County	11349	46	52	43	56
Nobles County	20128	48	50	42	56
Pipestone County	9305	42	55	38	61
Rock County	9498	42	56	39	60
Faribault County	14869	46	51	43	55
Fillmore County	21037	53	44	49	50
Lincoln County	5877	49	48	47	52
Redwood County	15519	42	55	38	62

This district changed very little, it took an extra county here and there but more or less, I didn’t want to change it.  Walz is already winning by large margins and he’s an excellent fit for the district.

MN-2 Rep. Kline	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	651855	40/58	48/50	38/60.5	45/54
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Wright County	117372	40	58	38	61
Scott County	62113	39	59	37.5	61.5
Carver County	88459	41.5	57	36	63
Dakota County	38718	44	54	39	60
Sherburne County	86287	39	58	39	60
Stearns County	86586	40	55	40	58
Benton County	5881	36	61	36	63
Hennepin County	72869	37	62	37	61
Anoka County	54649	40	58	40	59
Isanti County	38921	41	56	41	58

I decided to tie all the conservative exurban areas together along with Republican suburbs, putting all the republican counties into one congressional district instead of spread across two.  This makes it mainly a combination of CD2 and CD6, and takes out the main Republican-fundy base of Bachmann’s district.  It takes out the counties around the St. Cloud area, minus St. Cloud, keeps the former second’s GOP base of Carver and Scott county in the southwest (minus some of the suburbs that were 50/50’ish for Obama), also heavily conservative Wright county from CD6, and I threw in Isanti county from CD8 to shore up the GOP into one CD.  The district has a bit of a propeller as I need to pick up more population and those 4 townships in Benton were the most GOP areas to connect to CD2.  Kline lives in the portion of Dakota county that it includes and will be 100% safe in this district.  However, Bachmann will be looking for a seat as well. More on that later.

MN-3 OPEN	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	650300	57/41	52/46	53/46.5	48/51
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Hennepin County	487008	58	40.5	54	46
Anoka County	163292	53	43	51	48

This district shifts east and north as I cut out some of the traditional upper-to-upper middle class suburbs to take in more working class suburbs bordering Minneapolis to the west and north.  Eden Prairie, Bloomington, and most of Edina now are in CD5 (I kept some of Edina in CD3 for population and gerrymandering as some precincts went 2-1 for Obama while the city as a whole went about 55-45.)  The district then picked up Hopkins, Golden Valley, St. Louis Park, Fridley, Columbia Heights, and a few others in that area.  These areas also have a much higher proportion of minority voters so the district gets a bit less white and without Edina and Eden Prarie, probably drops pretty far in average income.

Paulsen lives in Eden Prairie so technically this district is open.  He could move to run here which he may to give it a shot but it voted for Obama by 16%, an increase of 10% from the current district lines.  We have a HUGE bench in this district to make that happen as there are roughly 25 state reps and senators per CD and the GOP only has about 6-7 of those seats in this CD.  I want to give Paulsen somewhat of a chance of retaining this seat (PA6, IL10) but I really dont know how he could.

Please tell me someone watched Mighty Ducks recently and these cities all sound familiar….  Cake eater is from Edina, Goldburg I believe is Bloomington.

MN-4 Rep. McCollum	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	651475	61/38	64/34	58.5/40	62/37
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Ramsey County	468147	66	31.5	63.5	35
Washington County	79263	47	51	44.5	55
Anoka County	104065	43	55	42	57

This is the district I gerrymandered the most as I wanted to pack as many Democrats into CD6 as possible.  The northern part of the district is represented by Anoka County exurbs that vote 2-1 GOP in some parts and the north third of Washington County which is exurban but not quite as Republican, maybe 60-40 at worst.  There really isn’t even much population up there as the main source is Ramsey county, which gets a little bit cut up.  The three blobs of gerrymander are as follows.  The main one is St. Paul, to the east, the district picks up the Republican precincts of Woodbury and then in the south it picks up Inver Grove Heights, a swingy suburb.  Safe for McCollum still.

MN-5 Rep. Ellison	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	647577	69/29	74/24	65/33	71/28
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Hennepin County	583048	71	27	67	31
Scott County	64259	48	50	42	57

As said previously, this district now picks up the south/southwest burbs in exchange for the very liberal first ring suburbs.  All the suburbs have been trending D quite rapidly and most voted for Obama.  The suburbs in Hennepin county, Edina, Eden Prairie, and Bloomington have trended pretty quickly while the two suburbs in Scott County, Shakopee and Savage, were once brutally Republican but population growth has exploded here and has brought them to suburban voting trends instead of exurban voting trends.  This is still extremely safe for Ellison.

MN-6 OPEN	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	648958	53/45	45/53	49.5/49.3	42/57
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Washington County	181743	54	44	49.5	49.4
Dakota County	327677	52	45.5	49	50
Ramsey County	31744	59	39	57	42
Goodhue County	45839	48	50	47	51
Rice County	17381	55	43	53	45

This is where I began this project as the main goal was how to get rid of Bachmann and make a Dem district.  It starts up in Washington county, takes in the Dem areas like Oakdale and Stillwater, cuts into Ramsey county to take in Maplewood, and then includes most of Dakota county where the northern portion is heavily populated suburbs that have heavily trended Democratic (hold all but one state house seat, which we picked up in 06 but lost in 08) while the rest of the county is townships and Republicanism.  It takes in swing Goodhue county and blue Rice county, where the colleges of Carleton and St. Olaf rack up margins for the Dems.  (Not to be confused with the St. Olaf Rose from Golden Girls is from, there is a St. Olaf township up north in Otter Tail county.)

Bachmann may no longer live in this district as I may have put her in CD4.  I know she recently moved to Woodbury, which is the city I gerrymandered.  So not sure which part of Woodbury carries that witch but regardless, she wouldn’t be a viable candidate in either CD.  I figure her and Kline could have an excellent face off in CD2 in an endorsement and primary.  Both have large constituencies in that district, almost 50/50, with maybe a slight edge to Bachmann in amount of former district.  So I’d consider this an open seat and it is a total swing district so it could go either Democrat or Republican, with the Dems being a slight favorite, especially in 2012 if Obama can manage another 8% win here.

I first had this district extremely gerrymandered to take in more Democrats but I decided to strengthen the Dems in CD3 in exchange for this CD as there is no way Bachmann can win this district, regardless. Here is a map of what I had before.

MN-7 Rep. Peterson	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	648519	47/50	47/50	43/55.5	43/55.4
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Kittson County	4505	58	40	50	49
Traverse County	3712	51	46	48	50
Stevens County	9624	49	48	47	51
Swift County	11192	55	42	55	43
Todd County	24029	43	54	41	57
Yellow Medicine County	10000	51	46	49	50
Lake of the Woods County	4095	42	60	38	60
Marshall County	9618	49	48	42	57
Becker County	31964	45	52	40	58
Polk County	30708	51	47	43	56
Pope County	11065	51	47	49	49
Clearwater County	8245	44	54	43	56
Red Lake County	4118	51	45	44	54
Mahnomen County	5129	61	36	53	45
Pennington County	13756	50	48	44	54
Clay County	54835	57	41	47	52
Otter Tail County	57031	42	55	37	61
Douglas County	36075	44	54	44	54
Grant County	6021	51	46	49	50
Big Stone County	5385	52	46	50	48
Lac qui Parle County	7258	52	46	53	46
Renville County	16132	48	49	45	53
Lyon County	24695	48	50	42	57
Beltrami County	43609	54	44	50	48
Roseau County	15946	40	58	31	68
Chippewa County	12465	52	46	52	47
Wilkin County	6418	45	52	33	65
Sibley County	15007	45	52	39	59
McLeod County	37220	38	58	37	62
Meeker County	23211	43	54	43	56
Kandiyohi County	40784	46	52	44	55
Norman County	6685	62	35	47	51
Hubbard County	18376	42	56	42	57
Wadena County	13382	40	58	39	59
Le Seur County	28034	47	51	45	54
Stearns County	7785	36	62	35.5	63

I left CD7 pretty much alone.  It’s GOP leaning and always will be, but the DFL is still quite powerful in most of the areas at the local level and it currently has a DFL incumbent, whose got a good decade if not more left until we should expect retirement.  

MN-8 Rep. Oberstar	Pop.	2008	2008	2004	2004
Total	649780	54/44	53/45	53/45	53/46
	Pop.	Obama	McCain	Kerry	Bush
Cook County	5398	60	37	53	45
Lake County	10741	60	38	60	39
St. Louis County	200528	65	33	65	34
Carlton County	33893	62	35	63	36
Pine County	228164	49	48	50	49
Koochiching County	13459	54	44	50	48
Itasca County	44542	55	42	55	44
Cass County	28723	45	53	43	56
Crow Wing County	61648	45	53	42	57
Morrison County	32733	39	58	41	58
Mille Lacs County	26354	45	52	43	55
Kanabec County	16090	44	53	44	55
Aitkin County	15910	48.7	48.8	48	51
Chisago County	50128	44	54	43	56
Benton County	33623	45	52	45	53
Stearns County	51680	53	45	51	48

My biggest question was, what should I do with St. Cloud?  It’s literally in the middle of extremely conservative Stearns, Benton, and Sherburne counties, it’s Dem but the vote margin is only 2,000, thus not making it worth much in votes considering the county I’d have to attach with it.  Benton county provided the smallest GOP margin and CD8 always goes Dem if by a smallish margin at the presidential, so I decided to include it here.  By adding this and eliminating Isanti county, it does get a nice Dem bump. Oberstar is safe until retirement and then it will still be safe DFL when open.

Since I live here in Minneapolis, MN and am addicted to Dave’s Redistricting App, I decided to try my hand at redistricting MN two different ways, first, assuming we lose a district and second, assuming we do not lose a district. The 7 district plan is below and should produce a 6-1 DFL map, or at worst a 5-2. The 8 District Map could be 7-1, but will be 6-2 once Peterson retires I think.

I’m very much a compactness kind of guy, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get a good Democratic Gerrymander with a compact map. The Maps and district descriptions are below the fold:

Here’s the seven district map:

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL) Blue

I originally forgot to include Mankato, Walz’s home, in this district and had to do some fancy work with MN-7 to make in in the district, but it worked. This district has three main bases Mankato, Rochester and then the motherload, Dakota County and the suburbs it contains. This should be a significantly more DFL friendly district than the 1st as it exists now.



District 2: John Kline (R) Green

Kline should be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here, though I almost forgot to include his home in Lakeville. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.



District 3: OPEN (formerly Erik Paulson (R)) Purple

I took Paulson’s home in Eden Prairie out of this district and gave all the GOP parts of Hennepin over to the 2nd. This district is based in Anoka County and will be a fairly 50-50 district I think, but will lean DFL over the next few years if it does not already lean that way. I considered including Bloomington in it, but it just got too messy.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R) Red

Placing Bachmann’s residence here was accidental at first, but too amusing not to go ahead with. This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R) Yellow

Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 3rd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Teal?

The old 8th becomes the 6th and essentially stays the same. I reddened it a litle to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.



District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL) Grey

Peterson’s district added a LOT considering its low population growth. It expanded to include much of the old 1st district and I had the 6th take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+2-4 district I think, but competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.

Now for the 8 District Map

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL)

I didn’t strengthen it much, but some of the GOP leaning rural areas went to the 7th. Walz will be fine here and Obama won the district.

District 2: OPEN (formerly John Kline(R) )

Kline might move here, as this is the heavy GOP seat, but then again, Paulson and Bachman may move here too, since I drew all 3 GOP reps out of their districts. Whoever represents the 2nd could be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district, as well as St. Cloud. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.



District 3: John Kline (R)

Kline lives in this new version of the 3rd which is based around Bloomington, MN and Dakota County. Obama won this district by a few points and its prolly around D+1. Kline may run here or he may move to the 2nd but this is a lean DFL district.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R)

This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd or the 6th, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R)

Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 2nd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: OPEN (formerly Michelle Bachmann (R) )

This is a new incarnation of the 6th, based in Anoka county, but much more suburban than the old 6th. This leans DFL and it would be an easy win for Tinklenberg or another Mainstream DFLer.

District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL)

Peterson’s district added a bit considering its low population growth. It expanded to include some of the old 1st district and I had the 2nd take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+4-6 district I think, but could competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.

District 8: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Purple

The 8th essentially stays the same. I reddened it a little to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.

Here is another Democratic gerrymander. I chose Minnesota because the majority of the poll voters picked it. For those of you who voted for Georgia, that is my next state.  For Minnesota, a gerrymander like this is possible but it could be a long shot. This would only happen if the Democrats retain the State Legislature and capture the Governorship. I drew this map assuming that Minnesota would lose one electoral vote. I probably was able to create a 6-1 Democratic map even though there is a chance it might be a 5-2 Democratic map. My main objectives were to keep all Democrats safe while weakening Republican Erik Paulsen of the 3rd district and combining Republicans John Kline and Michelle Bachman. They are both so Conservative so at least we can knock away one of them. The pink lines are the boundaries of the old districts.  Here is the link to my maps http://frogandturtle.blogspot.com

District 1 Tim Walz (D) Blue

Even though I would have loved to strengthen Walz but I could do that because I needed enough Democratic counties to protect Collin Peterson (D) in the 6th district. Anyway, this district is pretty much the same as it is except I took in Democratic leaning Rice and Lincoln Counties as well Le Suer and part of Goodhue County. Le Suer and Goodhue are both marginal. I probably raised the Obama performance in the district by just a bit. I estimate that Obama won 52% to 53% of the vote here. The racial stats are 91% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

District 2 John Kline (R) vs. Michelle Bachman (R) Green

I have heard some talk from Republicans about combining Minneapolis and St. Paul into one district. I bet they did not consider that the Democrats could combine most of the Republican suburban areas into one district. I strengthened the 2nd district’s Republican performance by adding more Republican territory near St. Cloud and removing Rice County. McCain probably won only 55% of the vote here so a strong Democrat could possibly make it competitive. Michelle Bachman’s home Stillwater is in the district. The 2nd district contains part of her old 6th so she will probably choose to run here. John Kline is more entrenched so he will probably win, forcing Michelle Bachman to finally get out of Congress. Racial stats are 90% White. Status is Safe Republican if Kline wins, Likely Republican if Bachman wins.

District 3 Erik Paulsen (R) Purple

I know one thing about this district; Paulsen is in for a tough race with this district. He was elected in 2008 so he had almost no time to become entrenched into his district. To weaken him, I removed part of western Hennepin County, put in the most urban parts of Washington County and added some heavily Democratic areas in Minneapolis. Paulsen won by eight points in 2008 against Ashwin Maida, an impressive candidate. This definitely drops the chances of clearly knocking off Paulsen but with some new territory, it should be much easier. Obama won 56%-57% of the vote here. Racial stats are 8% African American, 6% Asian and 81% White. Status is Toss Up/Tilt Democratic.

District 4 Betty McCollum (D) Red

Her district looks very different from the one she has now. I had to unfortunately extend it out into the Republican suburbs because of population loss and the elimination of Michelle Bachman’s district. Her district extends all the way out to St. Cloud now. Ramsey County gave Obama a margin of 96,000 votes and the part McCollum has Obama probably pulled out a 75,000 vote margin there. The suburban part of the district probably gave McCain a 15,000 vote margin. A 60,000 Obama margin should be enough to protect McCollum. If Bachman decided to run here, she would probably not win. Obama probably won 59% of the vote here. The racial stats are 6% African American, 6% Asian, 6% Hispanic and 79% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 5 Keith Ellison (D) Yellow

Even though I slipped in part of the old 3rd district, Keith Ellison should have no worries. Minneapolis will keep him safe and sound. Obama probably won here with 68%-72% of the vote. Racial stats are 10% African American, 8% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 73% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 6 Collin Peterson (D) Teal

Even though I have tried to strengthen every Democrat here, I had to weaken Peterson a bit. I took away a few northern Counties that lean Democratic and added some of Stearns and Sherburne Counties which lean Republican. I may have compensated for those counties by adding a touch of Minneapolis. Weakening Peterson should not hurt him much. He is a moderate Democrat who is the chairman of the Agriculture Committee and has been representing the 7th district since 1991. He should be safe even though McCain probably won 51% of the vote here. Racial stats are 90% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 James Oberstar (D) Gray

This district has slow population growth so I had to extend it to the North Dakota border. The counties there lean Democratic so the new additions do not alter the 7th district’s political leanings much. It would not matter how many Republicans are here because Oberstar has represented this district since the 1970’s. He creamed former Senator Rod Grams when he ran for House in 2006. No question about it, Oberstar is safe. Obama probably received 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 93% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

The following are my thoughts on redistricting each of the Midwestern states-from Iowa and Missouri to Western Pennsylvania. I think in general, things look good for Dems right now, with the exceptions of Indiana and Missouri. But read on and tell me what you think.

In alphabetical order

Iowa

I think that in some ways, Iowa is the most predictable state because of the way they redraw their lines. You know that there will be a Democratic leaning 1st District in the northeast, a stronger Democratic 2nd in the southeast part, a Polk County/Des Moines based 3rd, and Steve King’s wingnut friendly 4th in the Western part of the state.

Indiana

With the GOP likely to run remap here, the consensus is that they’ll target Baron Hill by stripping him of Bloomington. I think that’s potentially dangerous, as neither Buyer or Burton are good campaigners. Furthermore, I think Baron Hill would be a great candidate for Governor, so the Indiana GOP better be careful what it wishes for……

Illinois

Two thoughts: if Kirk runs for Senate and we win his 10th (or if we win it outright), I’m guessing the ultimate target would be Judy Biggert, who’s older and less politically talented than Roskam. The best bet might be to pair them together in an ultra GOP DuPage based district and use the Dem leftovers with parts of say, the 9th to create a new Dem district.

Now my evil little thought: I wonder if we could create a Democratic leaning monstrosity with the most Democratic friendly parts of Rockford, Peoria, Champaign/Urbana, and Springfield. Yeah it’d be ugly, but so is Phil Hare’s 17th…..

Michigan

In Michigan, if Dems run remap, there are several ways to go with it. My guess is that they would draw Thad McCotter into an Ann Arbor based district that he couldn’t win-that’s by far the easiest. I also think they’ll. The other thing they should do is draw a Lansing based Democratic District drawn for Virg Bernero and give the GOP parts of the 8th to Candice Miller and pack all of the GOP’s Southeast strongholds into a single district. I suppose there’s also the outside possibility of a Dem Western district that combines the city of Grand Rapids with some of the Dem leaning counties on Lake Michigan, but I’m not sure Vern Ehlers wouldn’t win that anyways….

Minnesota

Regardless of whether the state ends up with 7 or 8 CDs, the objective of Minnesota’s redistricting plan (if Dems control, and I think they will) will be to get rid of Michele Bachmann. The only difference being how you do it. If there are 8 CDs, you simply draw a 6th that is is close to even and friendly to State Senator Tarryl Clark. If there are 7, slam her into an uber-GOP (Sherburne, Wright, Carver,Scott and the most GOP friendly parts of Dakota, Anoka, and Hennepin)  district with John Kline.

The big question here in either case is whether the DFL goes after the 3rd by swapping some of the more Democratic suburbs like St. Louis Park and Hopkins for GOP friendly stuff like Edina.

Missouri

Dems have to pray that Missouri holds onto its 9th CD so they can simply play incumbent protection and draw a more friendly 4th CD along the I-70 corridor from KC to Boone County. If Missouri goes to 8, I’m almost certain that Skelton’s district is toast.

Ohio

If Dems control redistricting and Ohio loses 2 seats, here’s some possibilities

-The basic premise is to pack the GOPers into 4 ultra GOP districts: the 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th while creating a Dem Dayton district, cracking the 14th into 3, and the 2nd into 3 parts plus creating a Democratic leaning mashup of the 18th and 12th designed for Zack Space.

-Create a Democratic 3rd by combining Montgomery County with Oxford and the most Dem friendly turf you can find in Greene.

-Eliminate Jean Schmidt’s 2nd with the Dem parts of Hamilton going to the 1st, the GOP suburban stuff splitting between the 7th and 8th CDs and the Dem leaning Ohio River Counties into the 6th.

-Drop the GOP parts of the 15th into the 4th, 5th, and 7th and pick up Dem friendly turf in Franklin. However be careful because….

-To protect Zack Space, try and take what’s left of Franklin and mate it to the friendliest portions of the 18th while dropping as much of the GOP stuff into the 7th as possible.

-Finally, crack Steve LaTourette’s 14th into 3 between Marcia Fudge’s 10th (as much of Geauga  as you can get away with), Tim Ryan’s new district (which would be something like half of Lake and what’s left of Geauga, Astabula, Trumbull and the most Dem parts of Mahoning with some Dem strength going to Boccieri in the 16th), Finally, put the other half of Lake into Kucinich’s 10th by connecting it along Lake Erie.

Pennsylvania

As I remarked in another diary, Tim Murphy is almost certainly toast because the map is likely to be redrawn by a judge due to the split in the state legislature. Flat out, there is no way that any sane judge would draw something similar to Murphy’s one step short of fictitious 18th CD that he has now. He’ll either wind up running against Murtha (and will lose) or will end up in something similar to Frank Mascara’s old 20th (which he’d lose as well).

Wisconsin

I think the best target for Wisconsin Dems, should they control the trifecta, would be to go after Paul Ryan rather than Tom Petri-its much easier to play mix and match with the heavily Democratic 2nd and 4th than it is with Petri’s 6th. Ryan’s also waaaay to conservative for his district as it is, and Petri is something of an institution in his district anyways, even if on paper it is slightly more Democratic.