Tag: NJ-03

There’s been a bunch of polls released over the past couple of days that we haven’t gotten around to blogging yet. Let’s blast through ’em all in one post (trendlines in parens):

• IN-Gov (Research 2000): Daniels 49 (47), Long Thompson 45 (46)
• NH-Gov (Saint Anselm College): Lynch 73, Kenney 7 (!)
• NH-01 (Saint Anselm College): Shea-Porter 42, Bradley 35
• NH-02 (Saint Anselm College): Hodes 35, Horn 18
• NJ-03 (Monmouth): Adler 41, Myers 44
• NM-Sen (Research & Polling): Udall 51, Pearce 36
• NM-01 (Research & Polling): Heinrich 43, White 41
• OK-Sen (TVPoll): Inhofe 53 (56), Rice 40 (37)

All yours.

Over the past couple of days, SSP has shifted its ratings of six competitive races. Here’s a roundup of what we did:

FL-21 (L. Diaz Balart): Lean Republican to Tossup

“Clash of the Titans”.

Those are the words that have been invariably used to describe this hotly-anticipated match-up between GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The mud is beginning to fly fast and furiously, which is to be expected from these two highly-seasoned pols with a long history of personal animus and tension.

Yes, Martinez has baggage from legal troubles in the ’90s, but he’s also a larger than life figure in his hometown of Hialeah, and has an intensely loyal following in that GOP stronghold — as evidenced by many recent endorsements from prominent local Republicans.

The publicly-released polling of this race has been very close: Diaz-Balart led by four points in a June Bendixen poll, and SUSA actually found Martinez leading by two in August. A recent Carlos McDonald poll gives Diaz-Balart a five-point edge, but that’s too close for an incumbent’s comfort. This one is shaping up to be close.

IL-10 (Kirk): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the races that have been in SSP’s “Lean Republican” column since March, this one’s addition to the Tossup pile always seemed like an inevitable outcome — it was just a matter of timing.

Two recently-released polls — one from the DCCC and the other from R2K/DailyKos — give GOP Rep. Mark Kirk a slight edge here, but both polls have the incumbent dangerously below 50%, leaving him vulnerable to a late Seals surge in a D+3 district that is set to deliver a big margin for Barack Obama in November. On top of it all, a new SurveyUSA poll is showing Seals leading by 52-44. While it’s possible that that result is overstating things a bit, if there’s one thing we’ve learned in the past few years, it’s that Republicans are getting increasingly poorer at holding Dem-tilting districts. After all, let’s not forget that Seals, a very talented candidate, outperformed his final internal poll during his 2006 race against Kirk by a full 15 points.

While Kirk has a wrongly-perceived “moderate” profile working in his favor, Seals is deftly using Kirk’s past criticism of Obama to his advantage. This race is a tossup.

NJ-03 (Open): Lean Democratic to Tossup

While Democrat John Adler has been a fundraising machine in his race for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton, he has yet to show much in the way of polling strength so far. In the internals of Republican Chris Myers and recently-released Zogby and Monmouth polls, Myers has led Adler by close margins. You can say what you like about those pollsters, but the fact that we haven’t seen any Democratic polls of this race seems a bit telling.

While this is a D+3 open seat (albeit one that voted for Bush in 2004), it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House in over 100 years. While Jersey Democrats seem to have a habit of being underestimated in the polls, and it still would be surprising if Myers was the ultimate victor in November, it’s hard to give Adler a clear edge here for now.

NV-02 (Heller): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

After Dean Heller beat Democrat Jill Derby in the open seat race for this R+8 district in 2006, many figured a rematch would be fruitless for Democrats here. However, several factors are making this contest interesting, the most glaring being the dramatic change in the district’s voter pool.

By the end of 2006, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 171,874 to 124,008 in this district. (Bear in mind that Derby lost here by under 13,000 votes that year.) The most recent figures listed with the Nevada SoS are significantly different; since 2006, Republicans have added under 4000 new voters to the rolls here, while Democrats have picked up nearly 26,000. That’s a potentially big group of voters who simply were not in play for Derby two years ago.

A recent Research 2000 poll from August gave Heller a mere 47-42 lead over Derby, and private numbers haven’t been especially strong for Heller, either. While Heller retains a clear edge, an upset feels a bit more than just distantly possible in this district.

NY-29 (Kuhl): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl faced a close race from Democrat Eric Massa here in 2006, ultimately winning by only 6,000 votes despite heavy assistance from the NRCC and no DCCC response.

Since then, Kuhl hasn’t exactly been showing much fire in the belly. He was dogged by retirement rumors earlier this year, and has consistently posted sluggish fundraising numbers, being outraised by Massa since the start of the cycle. And don’t forget his response to debate requests from community leaders and local media outfits last month:

“At this point we haven’t agreed to any. We’ve taken the position that I’ve been real busy.”

While this is an R+5 Appalachian-flavored district, it’s facing tough economic times and that should make for a volatile race for Kuhl. Two recent polls, one by the Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC and another by SurveyUSA, have given Massa the lead here. This looks set to be the most challenging race of Kuhl’s career.

OH-01 (Chabot): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. Steve Chabot has been a perennial target for Democrats in this Cincinnati-based district, but this year’s conditions appear to be the most treacherous.

A recent SurveyUSA poll gave Chabot a two-point lead over his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Moreover, Chabot is particularly at-risk by Barack Obama’s strong push in this 28% African-American district. That same SurveyUSA poll gave Obama a 52-43 lead, a considerable improvement over John Kerry’s 49-51 loss here in 2004.

The big Democratic push at the top of the ticket by Obama seems set to give Chabot his biggest test in years.

Zogby International for the Press of Atlantic City and the Richard Stockton College (9/18-20, likely voters):

David Kurkowski (D): 26

Frank LoBiondo (R-inc): 62

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.5%)

First off, note that this is from Zogby International, not the ridiculous internet-based polling of Zogby Interactive. The 2nd CD is a D+4 district that supported Gore by a wide margin, but gave Bush a single-point win in 2004. While this district seems ripe for a takeover attempt at some point, LoBiondo has tirelessly worked the constituent service side of his job over the years, and he retains some significant popularity at home. Don’t count on a shocking upset here.

And now for the open seat race in NJ-03:

John Adler (D): 37

Chris Myers (R): 39

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The only other poll we’ve seen of this race, a McLaughlin & Associates internal for Myers from earlier this month, showed a similarly close (but wide open) race: 33-29 for Myers. South Jersey, and this District in particular, isn’t accustomed to sending Democrats to the House of Representatives, so perhaps these numbers are an accurate snapshot of the race as it stands today — or at least, as it stood last week.

However, the poll was taken before the DCCC kicked in with a TV buy against Myers. It’s also a question of money — Adler held a commanding $1.46 million to $155K cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June. While Myers recently was aided by a fundraiser from his political hero, President Bush, he’s still playing catchup here.

Zogby finds Obama edging McCain by 46-44 in the 3rd CD. That would be a slight improvement over the two-point Bush win here in 2004, but not nearly the 54-43 Gore romp of 2000.

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.

We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts – WOW!

And so on with the show:

CT-04 – D+5 – Shays

It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can’t find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.

As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays’ fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.

CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

DE-AL – D+7 – Castle

GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.

DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote – 57% – occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 – D+4.0 – LoBiondo

LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.

Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 – D+3.3 – OPEN

The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage – 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 – R+0.9 – Smith

This central Jersey district was won by Bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won’t be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won’t be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 – R+4 – Garrett

A district that shouldn’t be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 – R+1 – OPEN

Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage – 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 – R+6 – Frelinghuysen

This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 – D+2.1 – King

This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn’t set the world on fire and won’t with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead 🙁 Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 – D+1 – OPEN

No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 – R+0.2 – McHugh

John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 – D+3 – OPEN

Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan’s gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

NY-26 – R+3 – OPEN

There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 – R+5 – Kuhl

Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don’t discount Massa though as incumbent Randy “shotgun” Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven’t seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won’t provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

IL-10 (McLaughlin & Associates for Mark Kirk, 9/10-11, likely voters, 6/9 in parens):

Dan Seals (D): 29 (32)

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 51 (53)

Undecided: 21 (15)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

On its face, those are some un-sexy numbers for Dan Seals. However, the partisan breakdown of the poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I’ve seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity. Also importantly, Kirk has saturated the airwaves (broadcast, cable, and radio) with $650K worth of ads in the last month. The DCCC has just started to enter the action here, sending out mailers and airing ads immediately after this poll was conducted. Seals himself has just gone back up on the airwaves:

NJ-03 (McLaughlin & Associates for Chris Myers, 9/8-9, likely voters):

John Adler (D): 29

Chris Myers (R): 33

Undecided: 37

Barack Obama (D): 42

John McCain (R): 45

(MoE: ±5.7%)

This is a D+3.3 district in South Jersey that Kerry lost by two points in 2004. I’d be surprised if Obama fared as bad as this poll suggests, but this is also a district that’s not accustomed to electing Democrats to Congress. On the bright side, Adler maintains a ginormous financial edge over Myers, and the DCCC has already been making their presence felt in the district. Still, never take anything for granted.

PA-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Gerlach, 8/19-21, likely voters, 5/21 in parens):

Some Dude Bob Roggio (D): 28 (30)

Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 57 (56)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Yeah, I can’t say I have much in the way of positive spin to offer here. Roggio’s name ID has jumped a whopping 5 points since May — all the way up to 10%!

Yesterday, Congressional Quarterly changed their rating of New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District from Lean Republican to No Clear Favorite.

This means that every single House rater including CQ, the Cook Political Report, Swing State Project, The Rothenberg Report, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have predicted NJ-03 to be either Tossup or Lean Democrat. This is a historic moment, with Republicans having controlled this seat in Congress since 1882.

This is a prime opportunity for a Democratic pickup in a district that has been trending Democrat, and for the first time in history, Democrats outnumber Republicans.

The campaign has made tremendous strides and is gaining momentum throughout the district. Take a look at the campaign YouTube and see all the great stuff from the Adler for Congress campaign.  

Tomorrow morning, John McCain will be in New Jersey’s 3rd District, campaigning with Mayor Chris Myers, who believes like McCain does, that despite the 325,000 person job loss just halfway through 2008, our economy is strong. We need real common sense solutions and change in Washington with a Democrat like John Adler.

Check out this video put out by the Adler for Congress campaign today in preparation for the John McShame visit tomorrow…

It looks like the regional fight between Burlington and Ocean Counties in Southern Jersey that came out in the GOP primary to suceed Rep. Jim Saxton may be spilling over into the general election, much to the benefit of the Democrats.  

The infighting between the two county GOP organizations has been simmering for some time.  In the wake of Ocean County’s nominee Jack Kelly getting trounced in the primary by Burlington’s Chris Myers, Ocean County’s GOP chair, George Gilmore, issued a warning:

“Chris Myers ran a very negative, personal attack against Jack Kelly. I think Mr. Myers has to recognize the consequences of taking such action.”

This is interesting for several reasons.  First, the anger between the two county organiztions is very bitter, and has not healed since Tuesday.  Ocean County and its GOP leadership is much more conservative and combative than Burlington, and this is well demonstrated by Gilmore himself.  

Second, Gilmore is completely capable of cutting of his nose to spite the GOP’s face.  In fact, he has done it before.  Early in the campaign, soon after Saxton announced his retirement, many in the state and national GOP were trying desperately to coax popular moderate State Sen. Diane Allen into the race.  Allen would have unquestionably been the GOP’s best nominee, and probably would have held the seat for the GOP.  The problem?  Allen is from Edgewater Park Township in Burlington County, and this did not gibe with Gilmore who announced he would put a separate Ocean candidate if Allen ran.  After Gilmore put up a stink, Allen opted to avoid the headache of fighting with Ocean County and Gilmore and not to make a go of it, much to the chagrin of the NRCC.    

Third, Gilmore is the head NJ’s GOP County Chairmen as well as the head of one of the GOP’s most powerful (and last remaining) Republican machines.  If he decided to snub Myers, it would guarantee that we win the seat.  

In sum, Gilmore has already hurt the GOP twice in this race by helping force Sen. Allen out of the race, and then running Kelly to weaken eventual winner Myers.  Let us hope he continues acting stupid.

http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.d…

Polls close in Alabama and New Jersey at 8pm Eastern.  We’ll use this thread to follow the results in a number of hot congressional primaries.

Alabama: AL-02 (D & R), AL-05 (R)

Results: Associated Press | AL.com

New Jersey: NJ-Sen (D), NJ-03 (R), NJ-05 (D), NJ-07 (R)

83% of Precincts Reporting

Lautenberg	168,890	62%
Andrews	87,248	32%

Results: Associated Press | NJ.com

11:55PM (David): The AP says there will indeed be a run-off between Wayne Parker and Cheryl Guthrie. There must be plenty of teeth-gnashing at Parker headquarters – he took 49%, just a hair shy of avoiding the run-off outright. Guthrie, meawhile, is far back at 18%. But she’s been waging a very negative campaign lately, which hopefully will continue – and soften up the eventual winner even further for Dem Parker Griffith in the fall. The run-off is July 15th.

10:48PM (David): AL-02 will go to a run-off between Love and Smith. In AL-05, Parker is hovering at 48% with 93% of the votes counted. If he can’t clear 50%, he’ll face Guthrie in a run-off.

10:39PM: Chris Myers just won NJ-03 and Leonard Lance won NJ-07 according to the AP.

10:22PM: The AP is calling NJ-05 for Dennis Shulman!

10:11PM: The AP is calling NJ-Sen for Frank Lautenberg!

9:43PM: The AP is calling AL-02 for Bobby Bright.

9:33PM: Whoops — I can’t believe we forgot about NJ-05 (D). Rabbi Dennis Shulman is leading Camille Abate by 57-34 with 34% reporting.

9:19PM: Some tidbits from Alabama — Bobby Bright is crushing in AL-02 so far, while Jay Love is the early leader on the GOP side. However, Love’s base is in Montgomery, so we should see Smith surge when the Wiregrass region is counted.

9:10PM: Lautenberg is cruising so far. Jack Kelly, the weaker of the two NJ-03 GOP front runners, has a 45-30-25 lead over Justin Murphy and the stronger Chris Myers with 29% reporting. With 8% reporting in NJ-07, Leonard Lance has a 60-19 lead over Kate Whitman.