Swing State Project

This area is kinda the I-4 corridor. I would say out of the 3 districts I drew which are about 780k people give or take. This is a fast growing area of Florida and this is merely a map that will focus on the communities of interest idea of this area.

Blue is for the elderly and exurban. The center of the district is The Villages|Lady Lake which looks to grow more and more and is very attractive for Republican identifiers all over the country to move to. This district if it were to be made smaller would likely remove the Lake County portion that would be more of a Daytona exurb. And some parts of Marion county that are not near The Villages into a district that would go to Gainesville or Tallahasse.

I used to live in Citrus county which is in the north and western portion of the district, the county is divided in half, using the potential extension of the Suncoast Parkway as a border. This district is very much a transition from North Florida into the I-4 corridor. I should mention that in modern Florida the plotting of major road corridors are for growth purposes by developers who run the show in this area. This blue district is quite Republican and save for the areas near Orlando it is nearly all red.

It should be noted that the growth here is in the 50+ population and perchance minority populations along State Road 50 for work in Orlando. If this district was to be split up even further the Black voters in western Orange county would probably prefer to be in the purple district; pushing that one further Democratic.

Counties: parts of Citrus, Marion, Hernando, Orange, and all of Lake and Sumter

Partisan rating: Likely Republican for awhile

Green is for the suburbanite. The center of this district is the center-right Lakeland, a city between the sprawling cities of Orlando and Tampa which in turn could make Lakeland similar to Tacoma, Washington many years down the road (Think Seattle and Olympia with Tacoma in between). The area is southern for the most part in this area and middle class.

There are areas that are well to do but down the road there is going to be a large Hispanic plurality in some communities due to farm workers. One only has to drive I-4 to see why I drew this district into Hillsborough, once it his I-75 you see the tall buildings of downtown Tampa and though Plant City appears to be a Tampa suburb it is more similar to Lakeland and Polk county in appearance as well as proximity.

Counties: part of Pasco, Hillsborough and most of Polk

Partisan rating: Lean Republican, but tossup in 10 years

Purple is for Mickey. This district is just South Orlando with all its Theme Parks and its suburbs, it is a majority minority district with Whites having the VAP plurality and Hispanics having the plurality when it comes to the population as a whole. The area is very likely to elect a Democrat. The populations in Osceola county are either Farmers (low in number but Republican), Rich Whites (who occupy the planned communities adjacent to Disney and Universal), and Minorities who very much can bring this district home for Democrats.

Counties: Orange and Osceola

Partisan rating: Lean to Likely Democrat

I felt like putting this up for all to see since I have seen some diaries that split these areas up. Mind you I do not expect everyone to conform to what I think; but I am offering this as a guide for those interested in communities of interest in the I-4 corridor. This is absent actual partisan data but just an assumption on my part as someone who has spent a great part of the past few years traveling around this area.

If wanted, I would love to post a Tampa Bay and Orlando-Daytona maps finishing the I-4 corridor for reference.

I had really hoped we were done with this guy:

Former Democratic Rep. Ed Case, who finished third in last year’s special House election, announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate in Hawaii Sunday, releasing a video to supporters.

“I’m running for the Senate because I believe we can and must do better, and that our Hawaii offers a better way forward for our country,” he says in his announcement video. …

Case becomes the first official entrant into the state’s first open seat Senate contest since 1990.

Case is in fact coming off two straight losses, plus an embarrassing yank on the rip-cord. In 2006, he united the Hawaii political establishment against him when he challenged now-retiring Sen. Dan Akaka in the Democratic primary, losing 54-45. He then tried to stage a comeback last year, as Dave Catanese notes, splitting the vote with Colleen Hanabusa in a 1st CD special election prompted by now-Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s resignation. This allowed Republican Charles Djou to win with just 39% – despite an arrogant attempt by the DCCC to intervene on Case’s behalf. (The D-Trip insisted, without evidence, that Hanabusa was unelectable – even though the entire establishment was once again united against Case.) After the special, Case said he’d challenge Hanabusa in the Dem primary for the regular election last November, but dropped out just days later, probably realizing he’d get smoked in the primary. As a final coda, Hanabusa beat Djou in the general, showing just how misguided the DCCC’s interference was.

As I say, I would have thought this track record would have been enough to put an end to Case’s political ambitions, but ambition is what defines Ed Case – ambition, and douchiness. Case is truly a Dem in the DLC mold. Most notoriously, when he was running for Congress in 2002, he said he would have voted for the Iraq war resolution – and as late as 2006, he voted (and spoke) in favor of an open-ended military commitment in that country. He’s also been a regular supporter of anti-progressive legislation like the bankruptcy bill and the PATRIOT Act. In short, Hawaii can – and should – do a lot better than Ed Case. Indeed, his recent track record at the polls shows that Hawaiians already know this.

But I’m a bit concerned, because Case has been making amends with the other Dan – Sen. Dan Inouye, the dean of Hawaii politics. Case says he called Inouye last month to “apologize,” though exactly what he was apologizing for wasn’t clear. (Inouye took Case’s run against his buddy Akaka quite personally, it seemed.) And after Case dropped out of the HI-01 race last year, Inouye termed him a “real Democrat,” though I remain convinced Case bailed in order to avoid a third straight defeat, not because he was being a team player. So Case might no longer be the outcase he once was. Fortunately, Dems have quite a strong progressive bench in the state, so I’m hopeful someone like 2nd CD Rep. Mazie Hirono will step in and mop the floor with Case – soon.

The latest release of the Political Data Inc.  redistricting package allows us to look at the 2010 election results by contest.  So, using the congressional results from last election cycle I was able to construct election results as if the Cook plan had been implemented.

An obvious caveat is that these elections never happened.  Incumbents who had an easy ride in the existing lines would be fighting a different battle.  But it’s also true that the challengers – many of which were unimpressive and unfunded – would be cut from a different mold in a newly competitive seat.

Cook Uncooked Part Deux

The daily digest from the other day about the Democrats' plans for New Mexico got me thinking about creating my own New Mexico map. My goals in this map were very simple, make NM-01 more Democratic while shoring up Steve Pearce in the south (making Pearce happy with the map makes it harder for Republicans to reject it, especially given that there is a real risk that a court-drawn map makes NM-02 more Democratic, and Pearce is going to have a hard time winning a district that votes for Obama). But having said that, these caveats apply:

 

1. This map is probably not what a court would draw

2. It's better for Democrats than Republicans (although as I mentioned before it strengthens Steve Pearce, and that probably would at least give Pearce

3. The partisan percentages are only rough estimations, as I had to use the election data from 2008 (with 2000 population) compared to using the actual 2010 census data, as such my partisan numbers might be off somewhat (though probably not enough to make a difference)

Even with these caveats in mind, I still think there is a good chance that Democrats at least try to pass this type of map and try to get Martinez to go along with it by making Steve Pearce happy the maps below the fold:

Format: New stats (old stats)

 

 

NM-01

Pop: 685,912 (-481 dev.)

Democraphics

White: 39.8%/44.6% VAP (41.8%/46.7% VAP)
Hispanic: 47.2%/43% VAP (48.2%/43.7% VAP)
Native American: 6.6%/6.3% VAP (3.6%/3.5% VAP)

Partisanship: Obama 60.8% (59.6%)/McCain 37.8% (39.1%)

Notes: The first district gets a bit of a make-over here, it sheds all of Torrance County and loses most of Valencia County (while retaining a reservation). Really, all I've done to NM-01 is to shift it to the west, it loses the very northeastern part of Bernalillo County to the second district, while in exchange taking the western parts of Bernalillo county and absorbing Cibola County and the reservations in McKinley County.

 

NM-02

Pop:  686,837 (dev. +444)

Demographics

White: 42.1%/47.4% VAP (40%/45.2% VAP)
Hispanic: 52.6%/47.4% VAP (51.9%/47% VAP)
Native American: 1.7%/1.6% VAP (4.5%/4.3% VAP)

Partisanship: Obama 47.5% (48.5%)/McCain 51.1% (50.1%)

Notes: So you'll notice that the second district has become a touch whiter and more Hispanic, that's because NM-01 has absored most of reservations that were here before. Another big thing that happens here is that it sheds the more heavily Democratic northwestern part of Bernalillo County and takes in the more Republican northeastern part, as well as taking the town of Edgewood, taking all of Torrance County, and nearly all of Valencia county. To make the population as close as possible, it was also necessary for the second district to take small parts of San Miguel county. The major difference happen by trading some populations between CD-01 and CD-02. This is a district that Steve Pearce would be quite happy with.

 

NM-03

Pop: 686,430 (dev. +37)

Demographics

White: 39.6%/43.9% VAP (39.6%/44% VAP)
Hispanic: 39.1%/36.4% VAP (39.0%/36.3%)
Native American: 17.3%/15.9% VAP (17.3%/16% VAP)

Partisanship: Obama 61% (60.9%)/McCain 37.8% (37.9%)

Notes: Very little changes about NM-03, it sheds a little population to NM-02 and NM-01 for population purposes, but otherwise its core completely.

Tampa Bay Area

FL-5 (Rep. Richard Nugent, R-Spring Hill), Yellow

It now covers just 3 counties instead of all or parts of 8 counties in its current form (removed from Lake, Levy, Marion, Polk and Sumter counties), and is designed as an exurban Tampa seat.  It takes most of Citrus and Pasco counties (minus Port Richey and New Port Richey), plus all of Hernando County (Nugent’s political base, as he’s formerly the Sheriff there).  Safe Republican.  

FL-9 (Rep. Gus Bilirakis, R-Palm Harbor), Cyan

This district is minimally altered from its present form, except that it loses Clearwater and parts of western Pasco County.  It also exchanges some Tampa suburbs with FL-11 and FL-12.  Bilirakis’ home base of Palm Harbor and northern Pinellas County, however, is still here.  Safe Republican.

FL-10 (Rep. C.W. Bill Young, R-Indian Shores), Pink

It gains Clearwater from FL-9, and black parts of St. Peterspurg from FL-11; but loses Dunedin and parts of Palm Harbor to FL-9.  Still totally within Pinellas County, and is the most competitive district in the Tampa Bay area.  Lean Republican with Young, Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic in open seat scenario.



FL-11 (Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa), Light Green

This is the most drastically altered district in the Tampa Bay area, as it is now confined within Hillsborough County.  It loses its arms into Manatee and Pinellas counties, and gains some more conservative suburbs to the east.  It has a lower black percentage but a higher Hispanic percentage than its previous form.  Still plurality white (and 52% white voting age population/VAP).  Castor should be fine if she survives her initial election in this district.  Leans Democratic.

Central Florida

FL-8 (Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Orlando), Lavender

This district is recast to become solely within metro Orlando (Removed from Lake and Marion counties), it also loses its Osceola County portion to FL-12.  However, it gained southeastern Seminole County (Altamonte Springs and Longwood etc.) and eastern Orange County from FL-24, plus bits of FL-3 and FL-7.   As it subsumes most of the conservative parts of Orange County with a slice of traditionally GOP Seminole County attached to it, Webster should be fine here, although the growth of Hispanic population could make the district more interesting towards the end of the decade.  Likely Republican.

FL-12 (Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Lakeland), Baby Blue

Polk County (formerly split with FL-5 and FL-15) is now entirely within this district.  It loses the Hillsborough County portion to FL-9 and FL-13.  It is less white and more Hispanic (about 22%) than its previous incarnation, thanks to the inclusion of parts of Kissimmee.  For now, Ross should be fine, but it seems likely that this district will undergo  demographic changes similar to FL-8 down the road.  Likely Republican.

FL-15 (Rep. Bill Posey, R-Rockledge), Orange

This district now contains all of Brevard County (previously split with FL-24) and most of rural, less Hispanic portions of Osceola County.  It is removed from staunchly GOP Indian River County and takes most of Okeechobee County that still has hints of local conservative Democratic heritage (but votes GOP in federal races).  Posey should be fine here.  Likely Republican.



FL-24 (Rep. Sandy Adams, R-Orlando), Deep Violet

This district now contains most of Seminole County (Oviedo and Sanford etc.) and virtually all of Volusia County, but removed from Brevard and Orange Counties.  Seminole’s GOP heritage should give it a GOP tilt, but a moderate Democrat from Volusia should be competitive here in neutral or Dem-friendly years.  Toss Up/Tilt-Republican.

FL-27 (NEW SEAT, Sky Blue)

The Democratic votes freed up from FL-3 and FL-8 are the basis of this plurality Hispanic (about 33% of VAP) district (plurality white in VAP at about 38%, with 22% black VAP).  It consists of downtown Orlando, black areas in western Orange County, Hispanic portions of east-central and southern Orange County, and the adjoining heavily Hispanic portions of Osceola county (Kissimmee and environs).  Should be a perfect district for State Reps. Darren Soto or Scott Randolph, both Orlando Democrats, if they want promotion to the Congress.  Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer is another solid candidate for this seat.  Finally, polarizing but wealthy former Rep. Alan Grayson may also want to run here if he wants to return to Congress.  A Puerto Rican Republican, however, can make this race competitive.  Lean Democratic.

My partisan count for these seats are 5R, 2D, 2 swing.

Overall partisan count so far are 10R, 3D, 2 swing.

Southwest Florida, Heartland and Heartlands seats (FL-13, 14, 16 and 26) up next.

31, Male, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

Welcome to my first diary, I altered the numbering of the congressional district to be geographically oriented. The goal of this diary is to produce an 8-0 Maryland delegation. After playing with the map for a few weeks, I produced 7 districts that are Democratic and another district for former Congressman Frank Kratovil. The easiest way to make the district 8-0 is to split the Eastern Shore. Originally I had a 6-0-2 map in which the 1st District was slightly McCain and the 6th District was slightly Obama, after editing, they both became more Democratic. I have have also tried to clean-up the look of the current 2nd&3rd Districts.

1st District: open (blue)

Democrat: frm. Rep. Frank Kratovil?

Advantage: Tossup, Likely D w/Kratovil

2008 results: Obama 50.1% McCain 48.0% Other 1.9%

Race: 73.6% W,15.8% AA,5.6% H,3.5% A,1.5% O



2nd District (current 5th): Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (green)

Democrat: Steny Hoyer

Advantage: Safe Dem

2008 results: Obama 59.8% McCain 39.1% Other 1.1%

Race: 60.6% W,32.0% AA,3.2% H,2.2% A,2.0% O



3rd District : Rep. John Sarbanes (purple)

Democrat: John Sarbanes

Advantage: Safe Dem

2008 results: Obama 58.2% McCain 39.8% Other 2.0%

Race: 67.5% W,21.2% AA,4.9% H,4.2% A,2.1% O



4th District (current 2nd): Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D), Rep. Andy Harris (R)? (red)

Democrat: Dutch Ruppersberger

Advantage: Safe Dem

2008 results: Obama 58.9% McCain 39.1% Other 2.0%

Race: 65.0% W,26.4% AA,3.3% H,3.4% A,1.8% O



5th District (current 7th): Rep. Elijah Cummings (yellow) VRA

Democrat: Elijah Cummings

Advantage: Safe Dem

2008 results: Obama 77.0% McCain 21.7% Other 1.3%

Race: 33.9% W,56.2% AA,2.7% H,5.3% A,1.7% O



6th District (current 4th): Rep. Donna Edwards* (teal) VRA

*lives outside current 4th and new 6th

Democrat: Donna Edwards

Advantage: Safe Dem

2008 results: Obama 77.9% McCain 21.1% Other 1.0%

Race: 30.7% W,53.0% AA,10.2% H,4.6% A,1.5% O



7th District (current 6th) : Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R)(gray)

Democrat: Jen Dougherty? thoughts?

Advantage: Likely Dem

2008 results: Obama 55.2% McCain 42.9% Other 1.9%

Race: 64.6% W,11.6% AA,11.3% H,10.6% A,1.8% O



8th District: Rep. Chris Van Hollen (light purple)

Democrat: Chris Van Hollen

Advantage: Safe Dem

2008 results: Obama 61.6% McCain 36.8% Other 1.6%

Race: 65.8% W,13.8% AA,12.2% H,6.5% A,1.7% O

Thoughts on winners and losers in this map?

Errors?

Who would run in the new 7th?

Who would be unhappy with this map?

I am as partisan a Democrat as most people on this website.  As an Illinoisan, I am dismayed that my state elected five freshmen Republicans last fall but very grateful (for a whole lot of other reasons besides redistricting) that Governor Quinn just managed to hold on.  Otherwise we would be looking at another “incumbent protection” map, which in a state that just elected five freshmen GOP congressmen last fall, would be tantamount to a GOP gerrymander.

Various would-be mappers such as Silverspring have proposed 14-4 maps that would make Delay and Phil Burton proud.  But many of these maps go by Obama 2008 data, which is a fundamentally flawed data set to be basing districts on in my very educated opinion.  On the surface maps provided by such places as usaelection.org, you can see counties like Kendall and Grundy and Stephenson and McHenry (just to name a few) that wound up in Obama’s column in 2008.  No seasoned Democratic politician in Illinois would ever call these counties that are Democratic by any means.  Perhaps as suburban/exurban areas of McHenry and Kendall start to fill up and become more swingy, those counties might change.

This diary, however, focuses on a slightly different problem with the Obama 2008 data when compared against Kerry 2004 downstate (where it models pretty accurately – I understand the concerns people have about Cook and Dupage which may be a bit bluer now in 2011 but that trend is not noticeable anywhere outside of Chicagoland).  The problem is this: several of the downstate cities that mappers such as myself and Silver Spring and others count on to create as many Democratic-leaning districts as we can, aren’t really all that blue to begin with.  In other cases, such as Decatur and Urbana-Champaign, they are quite blue, but turnout is a problem.  Follow me across the jump where I demonstrate this using a new district I have been creating in most of my maps – a new 13th which disappears in Chicagoland and reappears as a vacant downstate cities seat.

On first glance this district ought to be safely Democratic, even in 2004.  It isn’t entirely so.  Believe it or not, but Bush got 49% of the vote in this district (and the narrow tendrils connecting the various cities together only amount to about 30k residents so that isn’t the problem so much).  The district is good enough for my standards, though, because Obama did get 59%.  By Cook PVI it is a D+4, perhaps not completely safe from a meltdown of 2010 proportions but most Republicans cannot win in districts any more Democratic than this, and other than Tim Johnson, there is no sitting Republican congressman from this area of the state who could have cross-over appeal.  Even then, Tim Johnson is not a Mark Kirk, and it would take a Mark Kirk for the GOP to win this seat.  So I think it is reasonably safe Team Blue, probably as safe as can be drawn in fact.

In most other parts of the country, a 51% Kerry, 59% Obama seat would be considered safely Democratic.  But again, pay attention to that swing.  At 8% it is a bit larger than nationwide if not as extreme as the 10-12% swings found everywhere in Chicagoland.  When one looks at the cities, you see what I am discussing (with the order of the numbers being Dem-Rep):

Peoria: 28,542-18,536 in 2008; 24,795-22,398 in 2004

Danville: about 8,000 – about 4,500 in 2008; about 7,500-about 5,000 in 2004 (Does anybody know where I can find Danville or Vermillion precinct numbers; their elections website is among the most unhelpful I have ever experienced?)  I calculated this by assuming, for the sake of argument, that the out-city areas of Vermillion were equally as red as the out-city areas of Champaign County next door but I could be slightly off in either direction.

Champaign-Urbana: 32,618-13,408 in 2008; 28,814-17,222 in 2004

Bloomington: 17,578-15,167 in 2008; 13,628-17,154 in 2004

Normal: 12,257-9,197 in 2008; 9,555-10,570 in 2004

Springfield: 32,463-24,019 in 2008; 24,650-28,971 in 2004

I am progressing slower than normal with my maps because it has occurred to me that there are really three scenarios that have to be taken into consideration.  Scenario A: a tactically conservative but aggressive in every other sense map that would lock down 13 Kerry districts (Rockford going together with Rock Island; the 14th going into downtown Joliet, etc.).  Scenario B: a more risky 12-4-2 map that would put Joliet in a swing seat as well as Melissa Bean in another one in the north part of Chicagoland.  Scenario C finally would aim for a 12-5-1 which would shore up Melissa Bean while pushing a Kane seat into Rockford, which would then make the downstate cities seat very swingish (voted for Bush 53-47 then flipped to Obama 55-45).

Personally I would opt for Scenario A if I were drawing the map and not try to do a 14-4.  Unfortunately with Citizens United, the money game is even more unstacked in our disfavor.  Our ticket should get a bump with Obama on the top of the ticket, but then what about the remaining four elections in the decade-long period that any map would be operative?  Finally, another reason to be aggressive when possible but tactically conservative, drawing maps more according to Kerry or 2010 congressional data rather than Obama: Illinois is notorious for split-ticket voters.  In the weeds work I have been doing up in Chicago suburbia, I cannot tell you how often a precinct that voted 60-40 for Obama voted also in the same election for Biggert or Roskam.  And that was in 2008!  Chicago suburbia is full of independents and moderates.  

That being said, it is possible to draw 13 Kerry seats to only 5 Bush seats, and if 13-5 were achieved in 2012, that would still mean -6 GOP, +5 Dem.  That is nothing to snuff at.

Great news:

State Rep. Jennifer Shilling (D-La Crosse) announced her candidacy Saturday to run in a potential recall election against incumbent state Sen. Dan Kapanke (R-La Crosse).

Volunteers collected 22,561 signatures in a bid to force the recall in the wake of Gov. Scott Walker’s collective bargaining bill. Kapanke supported the measure.

For the election to be triggered, 15,588 signatures must be verified.

Shilling is about as strong a candidate as we could hope for – and it’s a great opportunity for her, since she gets to take a free shot at Kapanke while keeping her seat. Hopefully this means we’ll have other similarly strong recruits from the state House in our other recall efforts. Also, this is a pretty big vote of confidence by Shilling in the quality of the signatures, which I’m guessing will stand up to scrutiny. Game on!

P.S. Click here for Jennifer Shilling‘s Assembly campaign site, which I’m guessing will get updated soon.