Swing State Project

Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jack Conway (D): 46

Rand Paul (R): 46

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Hooray! The citizens of Kentucky have finally seen through Rand Paul’s attempts to put a conventional Republican gloss on his oddball libertarianism! All the momentum is with Jack Conway! Oh, wait… what’s that? It’s a poll of registered voters at this late date? Taking into mind how much PPP’s numbers have fallen off since the switch from a more-or-less RV model to a pure likely voter model, that should mean… aw, crap.

SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV and Louisville Courier-Journal (8/30-9/1, likely voters, 7/27-29 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 40 (43)

Rand Paul (R): 55 (51)

Undecided: 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Oh, no! The bottom’s fallen out for Jack Conway in the last month! Wait… what’s that? The self-identified 47% Dem, 42% GOP, 10% Other breakdown of this poll is totally out of whack with Kentucky’s historic voting patterns? (Dems have always had at least a 25% registration advantage over GOPers, and recalculation to reflect that traditional breakdown points to a 51-44 margin, according to analysis by Pete Brodnitz, of Conway pollster the Benenson Group.) Hmmm, guess we’d better get down from that ledge.

Well, how about a tie-breaker, then? On behalf of somebody called the Kentucky Leadership Council, Democratic pollster John Anzalone (I’m not sure if this is just imprecision on The Fix’s part, or if he’s operating truly outside of Anzalone-Liszt) is out with a poll that gives Rand Paul a 48-45 lead over Jack Conway. However… one other thing missing from the writeup of this poll is whether or not it’s freakin’ registered voters or likely voters! Aaaghghgh! [begins pounding head on desk] (Update: The polling memo gives us answers to two questions – it was by ALR, and its sample was of likely voters.)

Oh, by the way, at least we can be certain about one thing: how much money Jack Conway raised with his one-day moneybomb event yesterday. He set a $260K goal and went well past it, raising “more than” $300K (although it sounds like at least $45K of that was lined up ahead of schedule). As for Paul, he’s up with his first TV ad of the general, highlighting his time as a physician, rather messianically titled “Gift of Sight.” (No mention of his breaking with Big Ophthalmology to start his own renegade certification scheme, though.) No offical WOTSOTB, but estimates are of $250K.

Public Policy Polling (9/2-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29

Paul LePage (R): 43

Eliot Cutler (I): 11

Shawn Moody (I): 5

Kevin Scott (I): 1

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Good grief:

The thing drivings the GOP poll advantage in Maine are the same we’re seeing everywhere: a unified Republican base, a lack of interest from Democratic voters, a strong GOP lean with independents, and the specter of an unpopular Democratic President and Governor hanging over the heads of the party’s candidates.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before:

The same depressed Democratic interest that helped sink the party in the Massachusetts Senate election, as well as last fall’s races for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia, is showing itself in Maine. We find those likely to vote in the state supported Barack Obama by a 7 point margin in 2008, in contrast to his actual 17 point victory there. That enthusiasm gap contributes a lot to the margin of LePage’s lead but make no mistake- with him winning 76% of McCain voters and Mitchell at only 52% with Obama’s he’d be in the lead even if the electorate looked the same as in 2008.

UPDATE: The DGA is up with a TV spot hitting LePage on his environmental protection policies (or lack thereof).

Public Policy Polling (9/2-6, likely voters, 6/19-21 in parens):

Bill White (D): 42 (43)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 48 (43)

Undecided: 12 (14)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

PPP’s switch from a registered to a likely voter model gives Rick Perry a six-point lead. Interestingly, that switch only translated into a 52-41 McCain sample from a 51-41 sample in June. However, the sample is significantly more Republican (47R-30D from 43R-37D in June) and whiter (70% from 66%).

Despite Perry’s edge, Tom Jensen calls White, along with Colorado’s John Hickenlooper, “one of the two strongest new Democratic candidates in the country this year”. That’s evidenced by White’s promising 44-29 favorable rating, especially when stacked up against Perry’s 36-49 approval rating. More:

The race is confounding the major trends we’re seeing in most contests across the country. White is winning independents 53-34. Republicans have the lead with them most everywhere else. White’s winning 82% of Democrats while Perry’s getting 77% of Republicans. Republican voters are more unified than Democrats most everywhere else. But there are a lot more GOP voters than Dems in Texas so Perry’s still ahead anyway.

PPP also tested the Lt. Governor’s race, and finds incumbent David Dewhurst up by 54-34 on his spirited Democratic challenger, Linda Chavez-Thompson. That Bill White is poling competitively while the lower-ticketed races look like Solid R affairs is both a testament to White’s strength – and Perry’s weakness.

Meanwhile, PPP’s Dustin Ingalls takes a look at an issue that may have some resonance in Texas this year (much as it did in 1994): term limits.

• AK-Sen: It seems like Lisa Murkowski’s meetings with the Libertarian Party didn’t lead to anything conclusive (while David Haase sounded amenable, the state party sounds opposed), as the signals she’s putting out now seem to point more toward a write-in campaign, if anything. According to Roll Call, she’s “strongly considering it” and will have an announcement as early as tomorrow. In case you’re wondering about TX-22-style hilarity ensuing, the Alaska Division of Elections confirms that a voter can spell her name incorrectly and still have the vote count, which makes the prospect of a write-in campaign for Linda Mukrosky somewhat more doable.

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck may have dirty boots, but he’s been busy scrubbing his website sparkly clean. The Michael Bennet camp has been observing lots of minor changes to Buck’s website to make it more mainstream-y, with softer-sounding rewrites on his issues page on Afghanistan, stem cell research, and immigration.

• DE-Sen: In another sign that the GOP primary between Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell isn’t dialing down, both Castle and the Tea Party Express (on behalf of O’Donnell) are both extending their previous ad buys, starting today and running through next Tuesday’s election. Again, kudos to Hotline’s Jeremy Jacobs, who knows not only the Size Of The Buy but the complete breakdown (Castle, for instance, spent $75K in the Salisbury broadcast market, $27K on statewide cable, and $43K on radio, while the TPX spent $32K on cable only). He also susses out that at the current trajectory, the TPX will reach only slightly past the halfway point on its promise to spend $250K on O’Donnell, unless they want to blow a lot of money at the last minute in the pricey Philadelphia market. Meanwhile, TPM checks out how TPX’s ongoing moneybomb for O’Donnell has been going, who has raised $89K since TPX got involved. Despite O’Donnell’s frequent attacks on Castle’s use of out-of-state money to power his campaign, they highlighted their $250+ donors, and a grand total of one (of 56) was a Delawarean.

• FL-Sen, FL-25: Biden alert! With Kendrick Meek having raised some bucks at a New York appearance with Bill Clinton last night, now he turns his attention to an upcoming fundraiser with the VPOTUS. (Expect to see the usual GOP carping about “Big Hollywood,” seeing as how the fundraiser is in Hollywood. Hollywood, Florida, that is.) 25th District candidate Joe Garcia will also be a beneficiary.

• PA-Sen: The Philadelphia Inquirer has a rundown of Pat Toomey’s past history of earmarks, in of course blatant contradiction with the pledges of austerity that define his current campaign… yet another Republican example of government largesse for me, but not for thee. In his first term in PA-15, Toomey won $9 million in earmarks, including $3 million for one company (Air Products & Chemicals) that then became his single biggest campaign contributor.

• CA-Gov: Steve Poizner seems to have finally gotten the message, if a few months on the late (and tepid) side. The Republican primary loser gave his endorsement to Meg Whitman yesterday… via press release.

• MI-Gov: Local pollster Mitchell Research is out with what appears to be their first poll of the general election in the Michigan gubernatorial race; like most pollsters, they find Republican Rick Snyder with a solid lead. He’s ahead of Democrat Virg Bernero 53-26.

• OH-Gov: Bill Clinton will be in Ohio on behalf of (Hillary endorser) Ted Strickland on the 14th, also the day of his first debate with John Kasich. Clinton will stump for Strickland in both Cleveland and Columbus.

• NC-08: With the DCCC having rolled out a GQR internal poll yesterday giving Larry Kissell a decent lead (48-36) in the 8th (on top of Kissell releasing his own internal in late August with a 49-32 lead), GOP rival Harold Johnson offered up his own poll today to show he’s still in this thing. His poll from POS finds Kissell still leading, but by a more surmountable margin: 39-34.

• NV-03: Politico has details on EMILY’s List weighing into the 3rd, with a two-week TV ad blitz going after Joe Heck on women’s health issues (like his vote against mandated insurance coverage for the HPV vaccine). While the article doesn’t have a link to the ad, let alone the Size Of The Buy, it does have a very interesting look at the advanced micro-targeting they’re using, focusing on very specific TV shows as well as Hulu and Facebook users.

• OH-16: Someone get Jim Renacci a high school history textbook, stat! When asked at the candidates’ first debate what he’d like to do about civil rights, the Republican challenger to John Boccieri retreated to Rand Paul-style teabagger boilerplate, saying “We need to get our federal government out of the way,” and that it was better dealt with as “local issues.” Yeah, because local and state governments in the 50s and 60s were the paragons of tolerance and virtue during the civil rights movement, and that federal government just came in and screwed everything up…

• DGA: If you’ve been wondering what they’re up to at the DGA, they’re out with a strategy memo that outlines the next few months. Wisely, they’re most concerned with the states with the greatest population and hence greatest redistricting impact, meaning that the smaller states with Dem-held open seats (Kansas, Wyoming, etc.) have already probably been on the losing end of their triage decisions.

• TX-St. House: We at SSP have been remiss in focusing on state legislatures in the last few months (for the same reason everyone else has — it’s hard to get good intelligence on them, and there’s too dang much to focus on just at the national level alone), but Burnt Orange Report has done a bang-up job profiling the race for the Texas state House, one of the few legislatures where the Dems are on the offensive and have a slim but legitimate shot at a flip. They’ve written up summaries of the 21 hottest races, all helpfully collected in one place at the link.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias ad rolling out his biggest gun: backing from Barack Obama

• PA-Sen: Not one but two ads from Pat Toomey ads with pretzel logic about how his time on Wall Street tells him that one shouldn’t bail out Wall Street

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson ad hits Russ Feingold again for being a career politician

• TX-Gov: Bill White talks about border security

• VT-Gov: Dem group Green Mountain Future hits Brian Dubie on support for keeping local nuclear plant open

• FL-24: First Suzanne Kosmas ad hits Sandy Adams on teh crazy, especially the 17th Amendment

• GA-08: Jim Marshall ad tries to outflank Austin Scott on the right on the immigration issue

• MI-01: DCCC’s 2nd IE ad goes after Dan Benishek on Social Security

• NY-25: Dan Maffei’s first ad is anti-Ann Marie Buerkle, using Sarah Palin endorsement against her

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s second ad this week focuses on his time as a military doctor

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 38%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 60%

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 42%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 42%, Carly Fiorina (R) 47%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 51%

The California State Assembly hasn’t been very competitive for years now, but just because I like to contribute to the site, I’m going to discuss what very little out there that is competitive.

(image courtesy Wikipedia)

AD-5

This open seat being vacated by term limited Republican Roger Niello includes communities just north of Sacramento, including Citrus Heights. The voter registration is very tight here, with Democrats holding a very narrow edge of less than percentage point. Republicans nominated Andy Pugno, author of Proposition 8. The Democratic candidate, Dr. Richard Pan has the backing of Assembly Speaker John Perez. With such a tight registration edge, the Democrat has a good chance here. I still rate it Lean Republican, though, just for the environment.

AD-10

Alyson Huber prevailed by just 474 in 2008 and was declared the winner after her Republican opponent had gone to the capitol for orientation. This year, she’s facing her 2008 rival, San Joaquin County Supervisor Jack Sieglock once again. The district has a very narrow Democratic edge and includes suburbs of Sacramento, Lodi and part of Stockton in San Joaquin County and the whole of Amador County. Huber benefited from coattails last time around and even then the race was close, so this is one of the ones to watch. I rate it a Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic because incumbents in the Assembly don’t get defeated much (the last time was 10 years ago), but in a year that isn’t great for incumbents, it could happen. It depends on all much attention is paid to the race.

AD-15

This seat was one Democrats had targeted over a few cycles and failed to win. Joan Buchanan won it in 2008 with 52% again San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson. Buchanan faces her 2008 again this time as well. This district includes areas of Contra Costa County that lean Republican, as well as portions of Sacramento, Alameda and San Joaquin Counties. Buchanan did run for the US House not long into her tenure, so that might be liability for her. Toss Up/Tilt Democratic, just because of the incumbency thing and the Assembly.

AD-26

Includes portions Stanislaus and San Joaquin Counties. Democrats hold a registration edge in this district that is held by Republican Bill Berryhill. Berryhill narrowly defeated Democrat John Eisenhut in 2008. This year’s Democratic nominee, Tim Weintz Sr., doesn’t seem to have a website, so it’s not clear what sort of candidate he is. Likely Republican.

AD-30

This central valley seat was the only legislative gain for Republicans in 2008. Former Assemblywoman Nicole Parra backed Republican Danny Gilmore over Democrat Fran Florez (mother of State Senator Dean Florez, who Parra has feuded with). Gilmore opted for only one term. Fran Florez is running again and defeated Parra’s father, Pete for the Democratic nomination and will face Republican David Valadao. Florez likely will win this time, but because of the climate, I’m rating it Lean Democratic.

AD-33

This seat contains the whole of San Luis Obispo County, plus Santa Maria and Lompoc in Santa Barbara County. SLO County leans Republican, while Santa Maria and Lompoc are more evenly split. Hilda Zacarias, Santa Maria’s mayor, is getting good backing from the establishment, but it’s climb for her in this district. She face SLO County supervisor Katcho Achadjian. Likely Republican.

AD-35

In this open seat race for the seat of term limited Assemblyman Pedro Nava, a very heavily contested primary between Nava’s wife, Susan Jordan and Santa Barbara councilman Das Williams. Williams prevailed in the primary, but came out with less cash on hand than his Republican opponent, former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker (who lost a Congressional race in 2000 against Rep. Lois Capps). There is a decent Democratic registration edge here and the district includes areas, like Santa Barbara, that vote strongly Democratic, so Williams has the edge, but it’s still worth watching since Stoker has a big money edge. Lean Democratic.

AD-36

This was one Assembly races in 2008 that was fairly close. Linda K. Jones received 48% of the vote to Steve Knight’s 51% in this Lancaster/Palmdale district. This is an area that has trended into swing territory over time and Democrats are more competitive here. Jones is running again, what’s not presence this time is the coattails of a Presidential race. The seat has a narrow Republican edge, which has been lowered do in part to many minorities moving into the Antelope Valley. This one I rate Likely Republican, simply for the fact that Democratic turnout will be lower than in 2008 and that same incumbency factor I mentioned earlier.

AD-37

Ferial Masry is on her fourth run for Assembly and came closest to winning in 2008 in this Thousand Oaks centered district. Her numbers then were do in part to coattails (Obama won Thousand Oaks and performed well in Simi Valley) and the fact that her opponent, Audra Strickland isn’t all that liked by some people. This year, Strickland is termed out and Masry is facing Jeff Gorell, who ran against Strickland in the GOP primary in 2004 and is the only Republican running for Assembly to get a union endorsement. Masry could poll well again, but it’s a climb.  Likely Republican.

AD-68

This is an open seat, in Orange County that includes Costa Mesa and portions of Garden Grove. The Republican advantage in registration is clear, but Democrats have found a strong candidate in Phu Nguyen. The GOP candidate, Costa Mesa mayor, Allan Mansoor is very nasty to say the least, he said that he entered politics because there were too many taco trucks on that streets. The large Vietnamese population in the district could carry Nguyen to victory, as well as a good percentage of the Hispanic vote. I rate this one Lean Republican just because of the registration in the district and the environment, but Nguyen still has a good chance.

AD-70

In another Orange County seat, which includes Irvine and Laguna Beach, Democrat Melissa Fox is making a legitimate effort. This district has a lot of Democratic voters even though the registration edge favors Republicans. Fox faces community college trustee Don Wagner in the general. I rate this one Likely Republican only because of the environment, but I’m not counting Fox out at all.

State Senate

SD-12

This is the only state Senate race this year that is remotely competitive. The Democratic registration edge is decent in this district that includes portions of Monterey and Stanislaus counties, but for the past 8 years, the seat has been held by a Republican. Now that the seat is open, Democratic Assemblywoman Anna Caballero is running for the seat against Republican Ceres Mayor Anthony Cannella. Both parties are making an effort here and it could go either way, especially in this year. Toss-Up.

SD-34

This district is located in Orange County, holding Santa Ana and portions of Anaheim. In 2004, Democrat Lou Correa very narrowly defeated Republican Lynn Daucher to take this seat. Since then, the seat has seen a big jump in Democratic voter registration. The GOP’s candidate this year is Anaheim City Councilwoman, Lucille Kring, but she doesn’t seem to be that strong of a candidate since her website only has a logo with her picture and a P.O. Box number underneath with no other information or links on the site, which is not smart for any campaign. Correa is a moderate Democrat, who is liked by both sides, so he’s the favorite here. Likely Democratic.

AK-Sen: On the topic of Lisa Murkowski’s declaration that she’s “still in this game” and her outreach efforts to a polite but seemingly unenthused Alaska Libertarian Party, The Mudflats sums up the situation pretty well:

   * She’s not technically in the race right now

   * She’s not out of the race

   * She’s not a quitter

   * She is who she is

   * She will likely not run as a Libertarian

   * She will likely not run as a write-in

   * She doesn’t know what she’s doing

NH-Sen: Businessman Bill Binnie is throwing down another $500K of his own money, with the GOP primary just a week in the way. Though ex-AG Kelly Ayotte leads in what little polling there’s been, I think this race is still up for grabs.

NV-Sen: The LVRJ has a detailed profile on Sharron Angle’s tumultuous years in the state Assembly, where votes in the 42-member body were often “41 to Angle.”

CO-Gov: Some Colorado Republicans are suing to try to knock Tom Tancredo off the ballot, saying his candidacy violates the American Constitution Party’s bylaws. Even if they’re right, I wonder if they have standing.

FL-08: Alan Grayson claims he raised half a million bucks in August, and says he has more than a million on hand, despite prepaying for a bunch of television advertising.

FL-24: GOPer Sandy Adams (and the NRCC, apparently) are touting a Public Opinion Strategies internal which has her leading Rep. Suzanne Kosmas 49-37.

HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa outraised Rep. Charles Djou in the pre-primary fundraising period, $330K to $206K. But Djou has slightly more cash on hand, $428K to $404K.

NY-14: Some Democrat she is. When asked by a reporter if she would vote for her opponent – not even endorse, just vote – in the general if she lost the primary, Reshma Saujani said she “didn’t know” whether she would pull the lever for Rep. Carolyn Maloney. I’ve been adamantly opposed to Saujani’s candidacy since I first learned about her, and with good reason. But this may be the most disgusting thing she’s said so far. How can I possibly trust the Democratic bona fides of someone who can’t even say if she’ll vote Democrat in her own district? And no, her campaign’s belated attempt to claim she’ll “vote a straight ticket” does not assuage me in the least. When the cameras were rolling and the pressure was on, Saujani admitted she wasn’t a team player. We don’t need people like her in Congress.

Turnout (PDF): According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, the “average percentage of eligible citizens who voted in the primaries of each major political party” shows more a greater share of Republicans voting in primaries this year than Dems for the first time since 1930. Of course, 1930 was a pretty good year for Dems… but the trendlines are not inspiring.

SSP TV:

GA-Sen: GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, not a guy you traditionally think of as being endangered (if you’ve ever even heard of him) touts his conservative record

NH-Sen: Paul Hodes compares Washington to… a hot dog eating contest

NV-Sen: Harry Reid continues to produce some of the best negative ads of the cycle

OH-Sen: We mentioned this ad in yesterday’s digest, wherein Lee Fisher sez: “Congressman Rob Portman knows how to grow the economy… in China!” Our update is that a GOPer says the buy is for $1.4 million and that the ad is running in Columbus and northern OH

FL-Gov: Alex Sink responds to Rick Scott’s attack ads, which she says are all about Obama, not Florida

CA-11: Jerry McNerney’s first ad, touting his support for veterans’ causes (I like that he has an actual veteran do the talking – much better than the usual candidate bragging or hackneyed voiceover)

CA-45: Dem Steve Pougnet is on the air with his first ad, kicking off a reported $100K/week TV & radio ad blitz from now through election day

CO-04: Betsy Markey has an anti-spending spot

NM-01: Republican Jon Barela has an ad complaining about the debt

NM-02: Harry Teague is up with his first ad of the cycle, a surprisingly authentic 60-second spot that’s worth watching

NM-02: Meanwhile, Americans for Job Security hits Teague over his vote for cap-and-trade (a “one-week” buy)

NY-02: If Steve Israel is worried enough to go up on the air….

VA-02: Glenn Nye touts his work to keep an aircraft carrier at Hampton Roads

As long as this SSP Editor (and newly minted Chicago resident) has been walking this earth, Chicago hasn’t had a mayor not named Richard M. Daley. Some thought it would never happen, but Da Mare is calling it quits:

Mayor Richard Daley says he will not run for re-election in 2011, saying it’s “time for me, it’s time for Chicago to move on.”

“The truth is I have been thinking about this for the past several months,” Daley said at a City Hall news conference that stunned the city. “In the end this is a personal decision, no more, no less.”

With the top spot in the Second City opening up for the first time in 22 years, speculation has already run rampant regarding who might throw their hat in the ring. Northwest/Southwest Side Congressman Luis Gutierrez is already forming an exploratory committee, while West Side Congressman Danny K. Davis won’t rule anything out just yet.

The 800-(fuckin’)-pound gorilla in the fuckin’ room, of course, is Rahm Emanuel, who represented a chunk of the North Side-based 5th district and had made his mayoral ambitions public awhile ago. But with even Rahmbo’s successor in Congress, Mike Quigley, saying that Rahm isn’t a shoo-in (among others, including South Side Congressmen Bobby Rush and Jesse Jackson Jr.), this race just may prove to be the hottest ticket around after November. (Quigley and JJJr. also haven’t ruled out runs, either.)

Other candidates floated include Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, outgoing Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan, North Side state Rep. John Fritchey, South Side state Sen. James Meeks, Circuit Court Clerk (and failed Cook County Board President candidate and ’07 mayoral candidate) Dorothy Brown, and two North Side Cook County Commissioners – Bridget Gainer (10th) and Forrest Claypool (12th, who’s also running as an indie for Cook County Assessor).

A host of Aldermen and former Aldermen (our term for City Councilpeople) are also rumored to be interested, including Manny Flores (formerly 1st Ward – Logan Square/Wicker Park), Bob Fioretti (2nd – South Loop/Near West Side), Leslie Hairston (5th – Hyde Park/Grand Crossing), JJJr.’s wife Sandi Jackson (7th – South Shore/Calumet Heights), Ed Burke (14th – Brighton Park/Gage Park), Scott Waguespack (32nd – Bucktown/Roscoe Village), Tom Allen (38th – Portage Park), Brendan Reilly (42nd – River North/Loop) and Tom Tunney (44th – Lakeview/Boystown). For what it’s worth, a third member of the Jackson family – JJJr.’s son Jonathan – has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.

If I’ve thrown enough neighborhood/area names in to confuse you, here’s a ward map I made, and the City’s official neighborhood map (pdf).

(And because I can’t get enough digs in on Todd Stroger, who knows, the soon-to-be former Cook County Board President – who finished 4th in his primary with 14% in February – might even be delusional enough to run!)

No mention of this race would be complete without a mention of the racial divisions present here. Chicago’s voting-age population, as of 2000, was 36.7% non-Hispanic White, 33.8% non-Hispanic Black, 22.8% Hispanic, and 4.7% Asian; leaders in both the Hispanic and Black communities have stated that they will be represented in the field. There’ll also be a divide between the pro-Daley loyalists and anti-Daley reformists, especially among white voters, probably between the younger “lakefront liberals” and the old-school machine pols on the Northwest/Southwest Sides. (Knowing nothing about the field right now, this Lakefront Lib would love to vote for Claypool, but would also happily vote for Gainer or Waguespack.)

Under Chicago’s quirky off-year municipal election calendar, petitions are due betwen November 15 and 22, with the primary election on February 22, 2011 and the general (i.e. runoff) between the top two vote-getters six weeks later on April 5 should no one receive 50% +1. With Daley – and many of his allies on the Chicago City Council – heading for the exits (and promotion-seeking Aldermen not running for re-election), one thing is certain: Chicago’s political landscape will be quite different come next April.

Update: A few more names I’ve seen bandied about: City Clerk Miguel del Valle, and Ald. Joe Moore (49th – Rogers Park/West RP). All the candidates highlighted here are Democrats…there’s 1 Republican (of 50) on the Chicago City Council, Brian Doherty (41st – Edison Park/O’Hare), and even he’s a close Daley ally.

Update 2: Even more candidates rumored, two of the Daley family: Da Mare’s brother William Daley, and his son Patrick Daley. More state officials include outgoing comptroller (and failed gubernatorial candidate) Dan Hynes and Attorney General (and daughter of state House Speaker Mike) Lisa Madigan. There’s also Cook County ClerkDavid Orr (who briefly served as mayor after Harold Washington’s death), former State Senate Majority Leader Emil Jones, and Ald. Gene Schulter (47th – North Center/Lincoln Square).

The Heart of This Year’s Darkness: The Deep South

There are seven Southern House seats that are, in my opinion, absolutely gone: the two open Arkansas seats, the Louisana 3rd, Tennessee 6th, Florida 2nd, and the Virginia 2nd and 5th. I still think we have a ghost of a chance in the Tennessee 8th, but that one is likely toast too.

If its any consolation, I think that the Arkansas 2nd and Tennessee 8th are long term pains in the neck for the GOP. The bright spot in the Deep South is the Louisana 2nd, which we should get back, so that effectively cancels out our loss of the 3rd district, which disappears in redistricting anyways.

I’m actually optimistic when it comes to pretty much every Deep South incumbent except for Allan Boyd. If my memory serves me right, the last one of those to lose under non flukey circumstances was Max Burns in the Georgia 12th in ’04. So I have Bright, Childers, Barrow, Spratt, Edwards, Ciro Rodriguez, and Marshall hanging on.

In the upper South and border states, things are a bit better. I think the North Carolina delegation is in relatively good shape, and that we hold onto the Virginia 11th as well. Kentucky is fine. In Florida south of the I-4 corridor, Kosmas and Grayson are far from gone (pure tossups, though I like Grayson’s chances better), Klein’s challenger in the 22nd is insane, and we could actually come out of Florida in better shape, if the only loss is Boyd and Garcia picks up the 25th. The GOP has yet to nail down Florida 12 as well.  

The Other Pain Center: The Industrial Midwest

Our incumbents in Missouri are in pretty good shape; I’m firmly convinced that Ike Skelton is too much of a fixture to lose and Russ Carnahan’s seat is too Democratic. Roy Blunt isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either on the Senate side, which is a plus. In Illiois, we should break even; minus Halvorson but plus Seals; Foster is a likely winner as well. I can live with that. I think Brad Ellsworth’s seat is a likely loss, but Donnelly and Hill narrowly hold on. The success of the auto bailout saves Gary Peters in the 9th District, but Mark Schauer is in trouble in the 7th. In Ohio, Kilroy isn’t strong enough, and Driehaus’s district is too polarized this year for him to survive; he’s not going to get the AA turnout he needs there. Boccieri should be okay in the 16th.

The Mid Atlantic

In the Mid Atlantic region, there are two seats that are currently very far gone: Pennsylvania 11th and New York 29th. Neither of those should be a long term hold for the GOP (PA-11 is too Dem, NY-29 goes in redistricting). There are a large number of seats I’m very concerned about here: the New York 24th (though I feel better seeing some positive numbers for Arcuri there), John Adler in the New Jersey 2nd, the Maryland 1st, and the Pennsylvania 3rd, 7th, and 10th; though Carney’s opposition seems sub-par. I particularly feel very queasy about the open 7th in Pennsylvania. Altmire, Murphy, and Holden should be okay,. Against this, we will pick up the open seat in Delaware.

New England

In all of New England, I think our only problems lay in the New Hampshire seats; my best guess is that we hold the 1st, and lose the open 2nd District. There are some who think MA-10 is in play, but I have my doubts, and even if it is, guess who gets screwed over in redidtricting….

The Upper Midwest and Plains

Our incumbents in Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to be in relatively good shape; Kagan could lose, but I honestly think he’ll be okay, and Julie Lassa’s opposition doesn’t seem to be that strong. Sadly, Michele Bachmann isn’t going anywhere though. In the Dakotas, I think we’ve been seeing too much Rasmussen and too little of anything else. I’m more worried about Pomeroy than Herseth-Sandlin because of Hoeven at the top of the ticket, but I think those are both holds at the end of the day.

I think that Dennis Moore’s seat in suburban Kansas City is a likely loss; the only incumbent in the region I have any reservations about is Leonard Boswell in the Iowa 3rd; he was in trouble even in the wave year of ’06. Why he didn’t get out of dodge in ’08 is beyond me…..

The West

This is the region where we’ve gotten the most help from the GOP. The top of the ticket for the GOP in Colorado is a godsend, which will give Markey a fighting chance, which is all you can ask for in this year’s environment. The spillover effects from Sharon Angle likewise help Dina Titus in suburban Las Vegas, and Jan Brewer doens’t look so hot in Arizona which helps out Harry Mitchell.

I’m guessing that we lose the open Washington 3rd, along with the Colorado 4th. Mitchell has a strong enough brand name in Tempe that he narrowly holds the Arizona 5th, and Titus’s seat could go either way. Somehow, I think Walt Minnick holds on, as does Harry Teague. We are plus one in Hawaii.

So, here’s the Dem lost causes (15):

-Arkansas 1st

-Arkansas 2nd

-Florida 2nd

-Louisana 3rd

-Kansas 3rd

-Illinois 11th

-New Hampshire 2nd

-New York 29th

-Ohio 1st

-Ohio 15th

-Pennsylvania 11th

-Tennessee 6th

-Virginia 2nd

-Virginia 5th

-Washington 3rd

GOP Goners (5)

+Delaware AL

+Florida 25th

+Hawaii 2nd

+Illinois 10th

+Louisana 2nd

Dem “It’s Not Looking Good” Seats (11)

-Colorado 4th

-Florida 24th

-Indiana 8th

-New York 24th

-Maryland 1st

-Michigan 7th

-Nevada 3rd

-New Jersey 2nd

-Pennsylvania 3rd

-Pennsylvania 7th

-Tennessee 8th

Dem Watch List

-Arizona 5th

-Florida 8th

-Iowa 3rd

-Illinois 15th

-Indiana 2nd

-Indiana 9th

-Michigan 9th

-Missouri 4th

-New York 20th

-New York 23rd

-Ohio 16th

-Pennsylvania 10th

-Virginia 11th

GOP Watch List

+Arizona 3rd (nothing but a gut feeling here)

+Florida 12th

+Minnesota 6th

Overall Guess: ~R + 29 seats

As a note feel free to comment about any of these races, and I’ll give you my thoughts

How? That’s not exactly certain. But a week after saying she would be “coming home” at the end of her Senate term, Lisa Murkowski’s tone has changed:

Murkowski told The Associated Press on Tuesday that she’s been inundated with calls and e-mails from supporters, asking her not to leave the race. She says she’s been humbled and is listening – and weighing her options. …

“But what I’m looking at is my state and the future of my state for my kids. So, I have not made that determination that I’m going to give up. I’m not a quitter, never have been. And I’m still in this game,” Murkowski said.

She met briefly Tuesday with the Libertarian candidate, David Haase after friends of hers – without her direction, she said – approached his party, asking if they would consider a Murkowski candidacy. She said she had an interesting discussion with Haase but made clear she’s not interested in changing her “political stripes.”

Besides a third-party run, Murkowski also could seek a write-in candidacy, which she called high risk. Or, she could decide to stay out of the race. …

She has until five days before the general election to decide on a write-in run but acknowledged a decision needs to be made soon. She said she’s listening to Alaskans and giving “considered thought.”

So let’s get this straight: Friends of hers have reached out to the state Libertarian Party, and she’s even gone so far as to meet with Libertarian nominee David Haase, but claims she’s not interested in changing her “political stripes”. And, for their part, the Alaska Libertarians, who already voted against allowing Murkowski on the ballot, are publicly saying that having her on their ballot line is probably not going to happen:

…Party chairman Scott Kohlhaas said the meetings are leading up to a discussion with Murkowski herself if she decides she wants a spot on the party’s ticket.

But it’s unlikely Libertarian leaders — who have disapproved of Murkowski’s voting record in the past — will allow her on the ballot before the Sept. 15 deadline, he said. “I tried to warn the Murkowski people that they’re trying to climb Mount McKinley here … it’s probably impossible.”

Murkowski has eight days to somehow make a Libertarian run happen, if that’s what she’s interested in. The Libertarians, for their part, are the most curious players here — voting to block Murkowski from their ballot, and calling a switch “probably impossible”. Are they trying to get some major concessions out of Murkowski in exchange for their ballot line? Or do they just like the attention of a United States Senator for a change?

UPDATE: More details on Murkowski’s play:

Libertarian Party nominee David Haase told POLITICO he met with Murkowski at the home of a private citizen Tuesday morning in Anchorage, where they discussed whether she was in interested in replacing Haase as the party’s nominee on the ticket this November.

“My answer was that I was considering it and I wanted her to come up with some reasons why, and she’s considering that,” said Haase….

Haase said that he and Murkowski agreed they would touch base again Wednesday and would make a decision on the issue tentatively by Friday – just five days before the Sept. 15 deadline to make changes to party nominees on the ballot….

Nonetheless, Murkowski and Haase discussed the matter – and it appears the senator made some efforts to discuss some of her more Libertarian-leaning positions during the meeting.

Haase recalled that Murkowski told him that she has “reservations” about the Federal Reserve – a pet issue for the Libertarian nominee – and reminded him that she supported an amendment this year that would have called for an audit of the country’s central banking system.

What a crazy race. Who knows if any of this will pan out. Also, I’m not surprised to see Murkowski tout her “reservations” about the Fed. After all, we wrote that little bit of PR for her a week and a half ago:

Anyhow, I wonder if Murkowski’s support of a David Vitter amendment which supported a stronger audit of the Fed than the one that ultimately passed might endear her to the Libertarians.

SSP: Like reading Lisa Murkowski’s memoranda a week early!

UPDATE: The Anchorage Daily News has much more, and by the sounds of it, the Libertarians are pretty cool to the idea:

In order for Murkowski to run as a Libertarian, Haase would have to step aside and the party would need to reverse its vote barring her from the ticket.

“It would be a serious flip-flop,” party chairman Kohlhaas said. “And I don’t think it’s happening.” …

Haase said Murkowski does have Libertarian tendencies but that her support for the war on drugs is a problem. Party chairman Kolhaas has also identified other Murkowski positions as a problem for the Libertarians. Those include her vote to authorize the war in Iraq and her 2008 vote in favor of the Bush administration’s Wall Street bailout plan, which Murkowski has said she regrets.

Haase said he might be willing to talk to his party’s leadership on Murkowski’s behalf. “If she convinced me I would do everything I can to convince them. But she hasn’t convinced me. And she hasn’t decided that she wants to run…she doesn’t want to be seen as somebody that will switch parties just to get elected.” Haase said.

Kohlhaas said the Libertarians are trying to be polite. But he said he understands [Murkowski] “is not going to change her stripes,” and if that’s the case it would be impossible for the party’s executive committee to reverse itself and allow Murkowski on the ticket.

• AK-Sen: Once again, the Swing State Project is proud to issue one of its once-in-a-blue-moon endorsements, and to do it for Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee in Alaska. We’re two-thirds of the way to our $2,400 goal, and we’ve just hit 50 contributors, so please join in!

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: This is a real head-scratcher: Ken Buck’s camp is out with an internal poll by POS… showing him losing (despite what a number of public polls have said)?!? The poll gives a 43-40 edge to Michael Bennet, with 5 going to the Libertarian candidate. Either this is an odd attempt to mess with Dems’ heads, or, more likely, a message to his supporters to stop taking the race for granted and to keep the contributions flowing. UPDATE: OK, this isn’t a Buck internal; it’s a joint POS/Fairbank Maslin collaboration, and it’s not said on whose behalf this poll was performed. One other bit of news from the poll: it also includes gubernatorial numbers, and John Hickenlooper is closing in on the 50% mark. He’s at 48, to 25 for Dan Maes and 15 for Tom Tancredo.

• DE-Sen: Tax liens and penalties are sort of the common cold of political scandals, but this isn’t timed well for Mike Castle, who’s trying to stave off a last-minute zone-flooding from Tea Party Express on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. Castle had to make interest and penalty payments three times on his Capitol Hill pad in 2005 and 2006, although of course that pales in comparison to O’Donnell’s long track record of ducking her bills. Meanwhile, we have a sense of what the Tea Party Express‘s fully operational battle station looks like: they’ve spent only $60K on O’Donnell’s behalf so far, but plan to have spent $250K by the primary (including more airing of their TV spot and radio ad, as well as direct mail and out-of-state phone banking).

• KY-Sen: The moneybomb shoe’s on the other foot: Jack Conway’s doing an online one-day fundraising scramble today. As of 1 pm ET, the day’s total was up to $130K. Meanwhile, against that moneybomb backdrop, is an instance of a paid Rand Paul staffer having gotten caught sockpuppeting over at Daily Kos, concern-trolling against Conway from the left.

• NH-Sen: A lot of money ($10K from various officers and employees) has flowed into Kelly Ayotte’s campaign from a decidedly sketchy company in Texas: Tax Masters, one of those companies that relies heavily on late-night advertising to generate business for helping resolve debts owed to the IRS. The company and its CEO were charged with multiple violations of Texas’s consumer protection laws, in the wake of hundreds of consumer complaints.

• OH-Sen, OH-Gov: The Columbus Dispatch offers up some truly bad numbers for the Democratic candidates in Ohio, finding Rob Portman leading Lee Fisher 50-37 in the Senate race and John Kasich leading Ted Strickland 49-37 in the governor’s race (and the GOP winning all lower statewide races too), among registered voters. One important caveat, though: the Dispatch’s poll are notoriously an all-mail-in survey (why not just poll subscribers to Literary Digest?!?), and have consistently ranked dead last in most of 538’s pollster ratings (until the most recent installment, when they managed to leap ahead of a few other members of the rogues’ gallery, including Research 2000, ARG, and Zogby Interactive).

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray leaked an internal poll today to Politico, showing that the needle has barely budged in this race between two ubiquitously-known, well-defined candidates. The Fairbank Maslin poll gives Murray a 50-45 lead, and 53/42 approval. An April internal by the same pollster, back when Dino Rossi was only considering entering the race, gave Murray an 8-point lead.

• MA-Gov: A poll from local wire service State House News Service gives a decent lead to Deval Patrick, thanks to an assist from Tim Cahill. Their first poll of the gubernatorial race has Patrick leading Republican Charlie Baker, independent Cahill, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 34-28-18-4, among registered voters.

• MD-Gov: For every Joe Miller, there’s, well, a Brian Murphy. The Washington Post takes a quick look at the upstart GOP gubernatorial candidate, whose Sarah Palin endorsement hasn’t turned into much of anything (other than a way for Bob Ehrlich to burnish his moderate credentials). In the pre-primary reporting period (all of which covers the post-Palin period), he’s raised only $35K, including $14K from himself, leaving him with $31K CoH. Ehrlich raised $725K over the 18-day period, taking him to $2.5 million CoH, while Dem Martin O’Malley raised $267K and has $6.5 million CoH.

• MI-Gov: While organized labor is the biggest force propelling Dem Virg Bernero in Michigan, there’s one union that isn’t falling in line. The state’s largest construction union, the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, is backing Rick Snyder instead. More alarmingly for Bernero, the much-larger Teamsters haven’t endorsed yet and could conceivably go for Snyder too.

• MS-Gov: The 2011 election is only fourteen months away, and things are taking shape in Mississippi. Phil Bryant, the first-term Republican Lt. Governor, is taking steps to prepare for a bid. Businessman Dave Dennis also seems likely to run, while the state’s great-named SoS, Delbert Hosemann, also sounds like he’s interested.

• TX-Gov: We have two wildly divergent polls in Texas, both from GOP pollsters. Hill Research, on behalf of the Texas Watch Foundation (in a poll that seems primarily about homeowners’ insurance reform, but where the gube race seems to have gotten thrown-in as an attention-getter), finds Rick Perry leading Bill White by only a 42-41 margin. On the other hand, GOPAC (perhaps having gotten an advance heads-up about the Texas Watch numbers) rolled out numbers showing Perry in better shape. Their poll, via Wilson Research Strategies, gives Perry a 50-38 lead over White.

• KS-04: With polling now pretty consistently showing Mike Pompeo leading Raj Goyle by single digits in the open seat race in the 4th, the last thing the Republicans can afford here is a high-profile third-party challenge on the right. That’s what they might get, though, if businessman (and former Tic-Tac-Dough host) Wink Hartman follows through on threats to pick up the just-abandoned Libertarian ballot line. The state party has started scrambling to lean on Hartman to get him to stand down.

• NY-various: There’s a bonanza of pre-primary fundraising reports in New York (where the primary is next week). The biggest raiser among the various Republican House challengers was Chris Cox in the 1st, who raised $103K to Randy Altschuler’s $59K (although Altschuler still has a big CoH advantage). In the 23rd, the numbers were much smaller: Matt Doheny raised $41K and Doug Hoffman raised $37K, although Doheny has about three times Hoffman’s CoH.

• WV-01: On the back of the DCCC’s wave of internal polls today, here’s one more poll that probably has to go in the “good news” file: an internal poll, from POS, has Republican David McKinley trailing Dem Mike Oliverio in the open seat race in the 1st. Oliverio leads McKinley 41-36. The only other poll of this race was an Oliverio internal last month that gave him a seemingly too-good-to-be-true 52-36 lead over McKinley, but at the very least, it seems like everyone’s in agreement that Oliverio’s in pole position for now.

• Ads:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with an ad in Colorado, letting Ken Buck go after himself with his own words on Social Security and the 17th Amendment

• DE-Sen: Mike Castle’s new ad is out; predictably, it goes after Christine O’Donnell for her crazy finances

• FL-Sen: First TV ad from Charlie Crist, stressing his (what else?) independence; also Kendrick Meek’s first TV ad, which is him on a swamp boat and stressing his (what else?) Dem credentials

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt ad about how much he loves small business

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher’s first TV ad out of the gate is negative, going after Rob Portman for being George Bush’s job-exporting trade representative

• CA-Gov: Strangely sepia-toned ad is Jerry Brown’s first, seemingly to remind older Californians about how much things sucked less when he was Governor the first time (SOTB: $1.2 million for one week… that’s California for you)

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s first post-primary TV ad is an attack ad against… Barack Obama? (and Alex Sink, too, I guess)

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes goes negative against Nathan Deal on the issues of his recently-released tax returns, calling him “too corrupt even for Congress”

• SC-Gov: Nikki Haley’s first TV spot, outsider-themed with a jab at Mark Sanford

• FL-22: The new Ron Klein spot is another anti-Allen West spot, but still hammering on the tax liens instead of, well, West’s non-stop stream-of-consciousness crazy

• ID-01: Walt Minnick’s first TV spot: please disregard the “D” next to his name, because he’s independent

• IN-02: The NRCC’s first television IE of the cycle, hitting Joe Donnelly for, well, being a Democrat

• IN-08: Trent van Haaften’s first TV ad is a basic introductory spot

• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper’s second ad tries to cram “jobs” in there as many times as possible

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s first TV ad also works the outsider angle

• PA-11: Paul Kanjorski’s second ad works the Social Security privatization angle, smart in such an aged district

• PA-15: Interestingly, Charlie Dent’s first ad is a negative shot against John Callahan (on local property taxes), indicating he may be feeling some heat here

• WI-07: Julie Lassa’s second ad goes after Sean Duffy for saying that he can’t do anything to create jobs

• AFSCME: Here’s the big buy of the day: the AFSCME is shelling out $1.5 million in four states (Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) for an ad attacking Republicans for voting against the state aid package in August)

• Rasmussen:

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 37%, Mike Castle (R) 48%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 47%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%

• ID-Gov: Keith Allred (D) 36%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%

• ID-Sen: Tom Sullivan (D) 24%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 63%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 39%, Charlie Baker (R) 34%, Tim Cahill (I) 18%

• NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 28%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 61%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 33%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 45%