Swing State Project

This article by the New York Times highlights what we here on the ground already knew: The political winds are turning against the Republicans here. I already detailed this with my two previous diaries, but i want to add another part: the state of the local races here two very competitive Assembly districts.

Recently, Art Pedroza of the Orange Juice Blog recently wrote a scathing criticism of the leadership and the workings of the OC Democratic Party. While i disagree with him on certain issues, he makes a strong point by saying:

Make no mistake about it- the Republican Party of Orange County is the enemy.  They hate Mexicans.  They hate homosexuals.  They hate the poor.  They are corrupt, for the most part.  Stop kissing up to these people!

Now on to the locally contested races:

AD-68

Challengers: Phu Ngyuen (D) vs Allan Mansoor (R)

Registration: 40.1% Rep./32.7% Dem./21.9% Ind

Analysis: Located in the South-west part of OC, this district is extremely diverse with Hispanic enclave Stanton to the north, down to famed Little Saigon and the ethnically diverse meltingpot known as Costa Mesa. Democrat Phu Ngyuen is running a strong campaign against Costa Mesa Mayor Allan Mansoor, who is known for his Joe Arapaio-like bullying of immigrants. Ngyuen was recruited by the Dems for his strong ties to the Vietnamese community, a very competitive voting group and has the backing of the entire OC Democratic Party leaders. According to the Secretary of State, Ngyuen has $136,604 CoH while Mansoor is at a jaw-dropping $8,617! However, this race is still favorable to Mansoor due to his stature in Costa Mesa and the generally pro-Republican lean of 2010. Still, if Ngyuen can pull within single digits, that’s a win in itself.

Rating: Leans Republican

AD-70

Challengers: Melissa Fox (D) vs Don Wagner (R)

Registration: 42.3% Rep./30% Dem./23% Ind

Analysis: This race is gonna be one to watch on election day. Attorney Melissa Fox is up against Don Wagner, a member of the Coastal Community College District and a vocal social conservative. This district is open after Chuck DeVore’s pathetic attempt to beat Carly Fiorina in the Republican Senate race. Fox has been hitting the ground hard, running a stellar grassroots campaign and recently won the Democracy for America’s Allstar Grassroots campaign. However her fundraising is small, having raised only around $27,000 and having an anemic $7,747. But Wagner manages to beat (or stump below?) that, having raised $163,208 he is now at an amazing….$425. Yes, four-hundred and twenty-five dollars. But to be fair, he did face a very crowded Republican Primary, where he was the underdog against favorite Steven Choi, an Irvine Councilman. The folks at Orange Juice and the Liberal OC have been relentlessly going after Wagner since the campaign’s started. It amazes me that even though this district, with its large Republican registration, not only voted for Obama (51-47) but against! Prop 8 (50-50 narrowly) and yet they keep giving us Chuck DeVore-style religious wacko’s like Wagner. Nevertheless, my heart says this race is a Tossup but my mind tells me its another Leans R, but i’m letting my heart win for today.

Rating: Tossup

For those who are interested, here’s some links:

http://cal-access.ss.ca.gov/Ca… — Secretary of State’s Website for Campaign Funds

http://orangejuiceblog.com — In my opinion, the best place for knowledge on OC politics. Some posters have libertarian tendencies (such as Art Pedroza) while others are solid progressives (like Vern Nelson), but its still a very telling website to learn more on OC Politics.

http://votemelissafox.com — Melissa Fox, Democratic Nominee for AD-70

http://votephu.com — Phu Ngyuen, Democratic Nominee for AD-68

(Note: Wednesday is my first day of school (go juniors!), so my presence on SSP will be limited. But i’ll be back as much as i can to catch up on any delicious cat fud that may appear and of course i’ll stay for the November elections, so this may be my final (diary) post for a while. =)

(Note 2: This post was intended to focus on all local OC races, but i only picked AD-68 and AD-70 because of the competitiveness and visibility it has gotten.)

One of the things I like best about SSP is finding out about interesting downballot races that would otherwise escape my notice. So in that spirit, I’ve put together a massively comprehensive guide to the state races in Kansas in 2010.

Wherefore art thou, Sean Tevis, oh star of the 2008 KS State House races?

While Kansas isn’t exactly high on anyone’s radar for this election cycle, there are plenty of competitive races (KS-03 & KS-04, plus nearly all the statewide offices this year) throughout the state. Join me, won’t you, for a look at what’s happening downballot in the Kansas state Legislature?

But before we get into an analysis of the various districts in play this cycle, there are a few things to keep in mind…one is that this diary wasn’t meant to be published so soon. It was also way too long, so I was going to publish it in parts, but I hadn’t decided on what those parts were. Apparently, I’ll be doing it in thirds, since I just did seats 1-40, the competitive ones, at any rate.

In 2010, only Kansas House of Representatives seats are up, with the exception of …

STATE SENATE:

KS-StSen-07: Moderate state Sen. David Wysong resigned, leading Republicans to choose state Rep. Terrie Huntington as his replacement. With a fairly moderate profile, she must now fend off challenges from the left and right in the only Senate seat being contested this cycle (the full Senate, including this seat, is up in 2012). Republican David Harvey is coming at her from the right, but she survived (barely) with 54% in the primary. Democrat Wayne E. Hodges awaits in the general. Possessing a master’s in public administration, Hodges is an adjunct professor at Park University and a sometime writer/reporter. We could do a lot worse, although Hodges starts at a distinct disadvantage over a battle-tested moderate Republican. Hodges bio

In 2004, Wysong won with 56% of the vote, and was re-elected with 54% in 2008. So it’s not a totally unwinnable district. If Hodges can’t win it in 2010, I’m betting state Rep. Mike Slattery (KS-HR-24) might try to move up in 2012. Of course, even if Hodges wins, Republicans will still dominate the upper chamber 30-10. Rating: Likely Republican

With that little appetizer out of the way, let’s get to the main course of this feast of local political analysis…

Democratic nominee Stephene Moore wields the power of delicious baked goods in her quest for KS-03.

KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – 125 seats

Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)

HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-# <—this is the district’s number

43.5R/27D/28.6U   <—this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state’s registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated.  Out of the roughly 1.7 million registered voters, there are also about 10,000 registered Libertarians, along with 1,169 members of the Reform Party. Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.

District Map    <—-this is the official map from the Legislature’s website KSLegislature.org.

MAIN SOURCES:

Candidate Guide + District PVIs from Capitol Strategies LLC [pdf]

Guide to every KS House seat’s past voting from OurCampaigns.com

Candidate Fundraising from Ethics.ks.gov

Before we start, I’d meant to put something in about how off-year elections are actually the better ones for KS Democrats. A smaller electorate is generally a more moderate and better-informed one in Kansas. Sure, the teabaggers may be out in force, but that’s nothing new in Kansas. And Democrats, as you’ll see, have a lot of competitive candidates up and down the ballot, not only Stephene Moore & Raj Goyle for Congress, not only the best statewide slate we’ve had in a long while (Holland, Kultala, Six, McKinney & Biggs), but even in many state legislative races, Democrats are now fielding pretty solid candidates who can compete and possibly win. So below, find the first chunk of contested districts, all the ones I’ve ranked as competitive that number between 1 & 40.

Among these, there are some that are either totally safe (thanks to PVI heavily favoring one party) or uncontested completely. In districts 1-40, those seats are:

Uncontested Democrats: 05, 08, 32, 33, 34, 37

Safe Dem:  01, 02, 03, 31, 35, 36

Uncontested or intraparty-only Republicans: 06, 07, 09, 11, 13 26, 27, 30

Safe Republican:  12, 21

Geographically, seats 1-40 are centered on the eastern edge of the state, hence the seemingly high quantity of competitive seats. (generally speaking, KS gets more conservative as you go West). Most of the competitive ones below are in suburban Johnson County, which has been going from rosy red to quite purple rather quickly. The exceptions in competitive seats in 1-40 are the rural, Fort Scott-based 4th, the 10th, which takes in the suburban/exurban/rural areas south of Lawrence, and the Fort Leavenworth-based 40th. The two Fort districts border Missouri, and Lawrence is just one county over from the state line (via Johnson or Wyandotte, aka-the Dot) from the state line.  

COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-04: 46R/27.4D/26U : District Map : (D) Shirley Palmer (good name, good pic at left) defeated incumbent Lynne Oharah (a man, surprisingly) in 2006 in this Fort Scott-centric district with 51.3% of the vote and won again in 2008 with 53% in a rematch. This year, she’ll face a new opponent in Caryn Tyson, whose father-in-law was a local state Senator and a woman with deep local ties. Tyson’s website, at least, is a careful balance–conservative but not too conservative. She’ll be a tough opponent, but Palmer’s been a solid representative, has excellent education credentials and her local ties are just as strong.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-10: 37R/29D/33U : District Map : (D) Tony Brown –  Brown will face off against Terri Lois Gregory, who’s coming off a strong primary victory. Frankly, Gregory is a rather creepy lady staffer for state Rep. Mike Kiegerl (KS-HR-43) and a fairly hardcore conservative. Brown was elected in 2008 with just 49% of the vote (a Libertarian took 5% and the Republican got 45%). Interestingly, this is Dem gubernatorial nominee Tom Holland’s old legislative district, which I would expect to yield a big enough boost for Brown that he’ll pass the 50% mark this time, in addition to the sophomore swing and going up against a hardcore right-winger.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-14: 43R/25D/31U : District Map : (R) Incumbent Lance Kinzer faces off against Elliott Lahn, a city planner for nearby Merriam. Kinzer’s gotten around 60% in his previous races, but Lahn’s got a good website, raised some money, and has snagged a few endorsements. Kinzer doesn’t have quite the conservative stink of other members of the JoCo delegation, but he also hasn’t faced very many competitive opponents. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-15: 43R/24D/32U : District Map  : (R) Arlen Siegfreid – Archconservative Siegfreid, now Speaker Pro Tem (2nd in command of KS House Republicans), has essentially become too conservative for this district, which was once staunchly conservative. In 2002, Siegfried won the newly-formed seat with 60% of the vote, but it has blued rapidly, with Siegfried’s vote share declining steadily to a narrow 52-48% victory over Sean Tevis in 2008 (McCain got 60% here). If Sean Tevis were running here again, I’d rate it a Tossup, but I’m doubting the website-less and rather invisible Wright will do as well as Tevis. Look for Siegfried to use his influence to draw himself a redder seat after redistricting, or perhaps one in the state Senate. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-16: 46R/25D/28U : District Map  : (D) Gene Rardin – Elected in 2006 by a hair after the moderate Republican incumbent went down in the primary, Rardin has survived two very close calls with less than 51% of the vote. This cycle, Rardin again faces a very conservative opponent in teabagger Amanda Grosserode, which should allow him to squeak to another term, despite representing one of the most heavily Republican districts in the county.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-17: 46.5R/24D/28.5U : District Map  : (Open/R) Jill Quigley – The moderate Quigley faced a primary against teabagger Kelly Meigs as she tried to win her second full term after being appointed in 2007, but Meigs won 53-47 amid a decent turnout (for a primary). A moderate Republican can easily hold this seat–Quigley nabbed about 62% in her first try against modest opposition–but an anti-school teabagger would be considered a prime target. Waiting to swoop in and pick up the seat is Democrat Bryan Cox….now here’s where it gets interesting. Conservative blogs KansasProgress.com (intentional irony alert!) and KawandBorder.net are reporting that Cox is considering stepping aside and letting Quigley have his place on the ballot. She’d switch parties, of course, and run as a Democrat. Also, the $16k left in her campaign account would become useable again, an upgrade on Cox’s $200 haul. Why would Cox step aside? Well, he might if he’s the Bryan Cox that’s a high-level Democratic Party operative who’s now running Lisa Johnston’s Senate campaign and was recently (still?) the Riley County Field Coordinator. Once Cox bails, the 8 local precinct committee(wo)men choose a replacement–perhaps now-Democrat Jill Quigley? Stay tuned folks, because if Quigley switches sides, this will instantly become one of the hottest races around and a great pickup opportunity.

Rating: Tossup, for the sheer insanity of it all…. it’s Lean D with Quigley as a D, Lean or Likely Republican if it’s Meigs Vs. Cox

KS-HR-18: 44.6R/27D/27.8U : District Map : (D) Cindy Neighbor – Interesting career. First elected in 2002 to this seat as a moderate Republican, she lost the Republican primary in 2004, then returned to win the seat as a Democrat in 2006 with less than 50% of the vote, and got re-elected in 2008 with 52.5% of the vote against Republican John Rubin, an Army JAG officer who is back again in 2010. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-19: 43.6R/25.3D/30.5U : District Map : (D) Dolores Furtado – A former Johnson County Commissioner, she won this seat in 2008 with 51% of the vote, and faces a strong challenge from Jim Denning, the CEO of Discover Vision Centers, who won his primary with a convincing 77%. But Furtado’s a tough old bird and she’s not going down without a fight. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-20: 49R/24D/27U : District Map : (Open/R/Kevin Yoder) – The district where I was raised for 15 years. A swingier-than-it-looks surburban Overland Park seat whose Republicans are heavily moderate, being vacated by former moderate Kevin Yoder. Yoder protege Rob Bruchman won a stunning 70% victory in the primary against Stephanie Sawyer Clayton, who, despite Yoder’s supposed moderate reputation, ran to Bruchman’s left, favoring opening up liquor sales, keeping abortion legal, and not hating immigrants. With Bruchman squarely in the conservative camp, Dems do have a chance, especially because the candidate for the Ds is Rob McKnight, apparently (I couldn’t confirm this) a former GOP consultant turned Democrat and longtime local resident. He’s been a good fundraiser (including some notable local moderate Republican names) and scoring good endorsements, as well. McKnight is actively campaigning and has a website that, smartly, appeals to a sense of neighborliness against the carpetbagging Bruchman: Kansas20.org. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-22: 34.6R/32D/32.5U : District Map : (D) Lisa Benlon –   Another former Republican state representative, Benlon returned to politics in 2008 as a Democrat, winning 53% to succeed Democrat Sue Storm, who rose to a seat on the state Board of Education. Benlon did draw a fairly strong opponent in Greg Smith, the father of the late Kelsey Smith. Still, the district’s blue tint, and Smith’s super-conservative profile, should be enough to save Benlon. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-23: 33.5R/32.2D/33.5U : District Map : (D) Milack Talia – After running twice before (once for a different state rep seat, the 29th), Talia captured 56% of the vote in his 2008 race. Helpfully for his electoral chances, he’ll defend the seat against “Conservative Constitutionalist”/teabagger Michael Foltz. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-24: 36R/32D/31.5U : District Map : (D) Mike Slattery – The scion of the apparent Slattery Democratic dynasty-in-the-making, Slattery scored a narrow Democratic primary victory in 2008 for one of the most Dem-leaning seats in the county, then went on to win the general fairly handily. Since only Talia’s and Benlon’s districts are more Democratic in Johnson County, Slattery stands a good chance of being re-elected. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-25: 45.5R/27D/26.6U : District Map : (R) Open/Barbara Bollier – Appointed to fill Terrie Huntington’s seat by local Republicans, this will be retired anathesiologist Barbara Bollier’s first race. Huntington got 57% in 2002 to win the seat, 56.5% in 2004, just 54.5% in 2006, and rebounded to 61% against a weak opponent in 2008. Bollier will face off against Shana Althouse, who is actively campaigning, quotes Gov. Sebelius, and is all about education–a good profile for this district.  Her website is good, too: www.shanaalthouse.com   Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-28: 57R/18D/24.5U : District Map : (R) Pat Colloton, generally identified as a moderate, is used to cruising to re-election, having no opponents in ’04 and ’06 and taking 75% against a token opponent in 2008. She’ll face the somewhat stronger Elise Chapline in 2010, who has self-funded $7k thus far, but I doubt Colloton’s sweating it much in her dark red seat. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-29: 48.6R/21D/29.5U : District Map : (R) Sheryl Spalding – Two-term incumbent Spalding survived a right-flank primary challenge by 29 votes from the teabaggy Richard Downing and will face Democrat Doug Dowell (good name) in the general. Having survived her primary, the moderate Spalding will probably survive with solid numbers.  Rating: Likely Republican

The shadow of Siegfreid looms large across Olathe.

KS-HR-38: 45R/23.4D/31U : District Map : (R) Anthony Brown was elected in 2004 after wining the Republican primary (no Democrat filed that year). In 2006, he took 56% of the vote and in ’08 nabbed 57%. Brown is now fully identified with the conservative faction in the legislature, and faces off against JCCC professor and psychologist Roberta Eveslage, This fast-growing district contains the northwesternmost edges of Johnson County along with Eudora & the fringes of Lawrence in Douglas County. While Brown is from conservative Eudora, Eveslage is from moderate Lenexa. The battleground is booming DeSoto, where well-to-do parents are concerned about school funding battles because they need to expand their schools pretty rapidly to handle the population influx. Eveslage’s laser-like focus on the issue is smart, her website is decent (http://robertaforkansas.com/) and she’s actively campaigning. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-39: 42R/26D/31.4U : District Map : (R) Owen Donohoe – Elected in 2006, Donohoe has proven to be a staunch conservative, not a great fit for this moderate district, as evinced by his weak victories, 52.3% in ’06 and 51.3% in ’08. Donohoe’s up against retired school principal Joe Novak, who ran in ’08 and nearly won. Now that he’s so clearly identified with conservatives, Donohoe is going to bleed moderate Republicans, probably enough to let Novak eke out a victory this time around. He’s also BFFs with Kansas’ worst legislator, Connie O’Brien, so he obviously sucks.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-40: 32R/35D/31.6U : District Map : (D) Melanie Meier – Our candidate here is awesome and profile-wise, fits her Fort Leavenworth-based district like a glove. Raised in a military family that eventually settled in Leavenworth, Melanie Meier was elected in 2008 (with 56%) but resigned her post to serve in Iraq. When she returned, KS Dems reappointed her to the seat she’d won. Active in her community, her husband’s also in the military, and she’s a Catholic, so it’s tough to imagine a better candidate for this district. She’d be an excellent candidate for higher office, too, perhaps the state Senate or even Congress against Lynn Jenkins. Rating: Likely Democrat

Next up, seats 40-80, including central and eastern Kansas (basically everything from Lawrence to Salina along I-70), some suburban Wichita seats, still a few more Johnson County seats, plus the Chet Edwards(es) of Kansas. Click here to read about the next 40 seats.

Photo credit for potentially the best photo ever of Arlen Siegfreid: the Olathe Republican Party.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s gotta be wondering why all those former employees couldn’t wait until after the November election to up and die. With the death two weeks ago of Lance McNaught still in the news, another WWE star, Luna Vachon, died over the weekend. An autopsy is scheduled, but the WWE paid for rehab for substance abuse for Vachon last year.

• KY-Sen: Democrat Jack Conway’s out with his first TV ad for the general election. The ad buy, touting Conway’s work against prescription drug abuse and child pornography as AG, is for about $150K. Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Paul is out with a doozy of a legislative proposal: to audit the nation’s gold reserves. As with many things that come out of the gray area between ultra-libertarianism and black helicopters-territory, the “huh? why?” part is best answered by reading the comments on the article, which apparently suggest that our nation’s gold supply actually been given away as collateral on all our debt to commercial banks/our Chinese overlords/the UN/the Bavarian Illuminati. Why is this getting filed under KY-Sen? Partly because those reserves are (allegedly!!!!1!) in Kentucky at Fort Knox, but also because at some point Rand Paul is going to inevitably get called on the carpet to say whether he agrees with dad’s latest scheme.

• NC-Sen: Civitas is out with a new poll of the Senate race in the Tar Heel State, but it’s an odd little critter, only polling “unaffiliated” voters. They seem to mirror the larger split statewide, with Richard Burr leading Elaine Marshall 39-32 (with 7 for Libertarian Michael Beitler). 34% of respondents had still never heard of Marshall. Burr is also out with his first TV ad of the cycle, focusing on his down-home-ness, presumably to ward off the “gone Washington” problem that sank Elizabeth Dole two years ago. The buy is for $578K (click the link to see the breakdown among the state’s many media markets).

• NH-Sen: Ovide Lamontagne just got a big score: the endorsement of the Manchester Union-Leader, the state’s largest newspaper and also one of the most consistently right-wing editorial pages anywhere. Newspaper endorsements can usually be shrugged off, but the Union-Leader’s endorsement of Lamontagne in the 1996 GOP gubernatorial primary helped him pull of the surprise upset of Rep. Bill Zeliff. Can this help him in a four-way split, though, instead of just a two-way, especially when Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie have dramatically outspent him so far? Lamontagne is also finally hitting the airwaves with his first TV ad, with the primary approaching in just a couple weeks. (No dollar figure given, but it’s only a one-week cable buy.)

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle just keeps handing gift after gift to Harry Reid, this time unfortunately timed to coincide with Katrina’s 5th anniversary: video has surfaced from Angle’s 2006 NV-02 bid in which she says she would have voted against Katrina relief funds. One other minor Nevada point, also courtesy of Jon Ralston: Clark County‘s GOP chair just resigned, leaving more disarray in the local Republican hierarchy as far as staying organized and disciplined for November.

• OH-Sen: The national Chamber of Commerce is out with a new positive ad touting Rob Portman, which is odd since Portman has enough money in the bank that he can pay his own way and then some. (The establishment, free-tradin’ Portman is definitely their kind of guy, though, much more so than the teabaggers cluttering a number of other close Senate races.) NWOTSOTB.

• AL-05: Republican Mo Brooks (who blew out party-switching Parker Griffith in the GOP primary) has a decent, but not overwhelming, lead over Dem Steve Raby, at least according to his own internal courtesy of POS. Brooks leads 48-37; taking into consideration that it’s an internal, this race isn’t a likely pickup but certainly still on the table.

• KY-06: One other ad to consider today: Ben Chandler’s out with another spot, this time going negative against local attorney Andy Barr, hitting him on the issue of the bad kind of SSP (social security privatization).

• MI-01, MI-03, MI-07: We Ask America is out with a trio of House district polls in Michigan. As is their usual modus operandi, the Republicans are in the lead. In the Dem-held open seat 1st, Dan Benishek leads Gary McDowell 45-29 (even WAA admits they expect that to tighten a lot, based on Benishek’s name being in the news from the ultra-close GOP primary). In the reddish open-seat 3rd being vacated by GOPer Vern Ehlers, Justin Amash leads Patrick Miles 51-30. And the state’s most vulnerable Dem incumbent, Mark Schauer trails ex-Rep. Tim Walberg in a rematch, 45-37.

• OH-17: “Trafican’t” just got turned into “Trafican.” Although there’s no official word, supporters of ex-con ex-Rep. Jim Traficant are saying that re-canvassing of petitions has yielded enough valid signatures to get him on the ballot as an independent. He was only 20 shy, and they’ve found at least 27 new valid signatures. Traficant isn’t likely to be much of a factor against incumbent Rep. Tim Ryan in this solidly blue district, though.

• AGs: I know I can rely on Louis Jacobson to go even deeper into the weeds than we here at SSP ever will. Writing for Governing magazine, he handicaps and encapsulates the nation’s many state Attorney General races. He finds the Dems (who currenly have a 32-18 edge in AG positions) in danger of losing at least six seats this year, including Dem-held open seats in California, Arizona, and Georgia. One of the Dems’ best (if only) offensive opportunities is Bill McCollum’s old post in Florida. The St. Petersburg Times has a deeper profile of the race between Democratic state Sen. Dan Gelber, and the Sarah Palin-backed Hillsborough Co. prosecutor Pam Bondi.

• Mayors: Here’s a second poll in a week’s time showing current Washington, DC mayor Adrian Fenty significantly trailing in his bid for re-election, against Democratic primary opponent Vincent Gray. The Washington Post finds Gray leading Fenty 53-36 among likely voters, or 49-36 among registered voters.

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 38%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 57%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 44%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

• OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 37%, Mary Fallin (R) 52%

• OK-Sen: Jim Rogers (D) 24%, Tom Coburn (R-inc) 67%

• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 19%, Jim DeMint (R) 63%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 48%, John Raese (R) 42%

After completing my US House analysis a few days ago, I figured it was time to post my US Senate analysis.  

Some basic background:

1)  On paper, the Republicans should be able to take the Senate, but they really only have a 20% chance of doing so due to some candidate issues, specifically in Nevada and Kentucky.  

2)  Right now, I estimate that the Republicans will gain 6 seats (winning 25 out of the 37) seats at play.  This involves me breaking all the tossups for the Republicans except Kentucky and Wisconsin.

3)  Democratic majority will remain intact with a 53 to 47 partisan breakdown in the Senate.

Safe Democratic (7)

Hawaii

Maryland

New York

New York

Oregon

Vermont

West Virginia

Likely Democratic (1)

Connecticut

Leans Democratic (3)

California

Nevada

Washington

Tossup (6)

Colorado

Florida

Illinois

Kentucky

Ohio

Wisconsin

Leans Republican (3)

Missouri

New Hampshire

Pennsylvania

Likely Republican (6)

Alaska

Arkansas

Delaware

Indiana

Louisiana

North Carolina

Safe Republican (11)

Alabama

Arizona

Georgia

Idaho

Iowa

Kansas

North Dakota

Oklahoma

South Carolina

South Dakota

Utah

Oh please, oh please:

The Tea Party Express, which spent some $600,000 on Alaska Republican Joe Miller’s primary challenge to Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), says it’s preparing to do the same on behalf of Christine O’Donnell (R) in Delaware. […]

Tea Party Express spokesman Levi Russell said Monday that his organization is already cutting TV and radio ads in Delaware and expects to be on the air by the end of the week. Russell said he hopes to match the support the group offered in GOP primaries in Utah, Nevada and Alaska this year.  

“All of our spending is dependent on the enthusiasm of the Tea Party Express members,” Russell said. “It’s up to that race and that candidate to capture their imagination.”

As to whether O’Donnell has done that to this point, Russell admits “not quite yet.” But he expressed confidence that the money will flood in over the coming days.  

“I’m sure we’ll be spending six figures in Delaware,” Russell predicted.

After powering Mike Lee, Sharron Angle and Joe Miller to stunning primary victories (or, in Miller’s case, a still-unconfirmed kill), the weight of the Tea Party Express’ independent expenditures cannot be ignored.

Establishment Republicans in Delaware appear to be livid at this news (and O’Donnell’s candidacy in general), with state GOP chair Tom Ross call O’Donnell “a perennial candidate who lacks the standing in Delaware to get elected to anything.” The Politico recently profiled O’Donnell’s long-shot bid, and she had some choice quotes on Castle, describing him as “not a church-friendly candidate” and “the most liberal Republican in the House” who could be toppled in a closed GOP primary. (Less savory was O’Donnell’s campaign manager spouting off about Castle being a “70-year-old bad heart Republican.”)

Meanwhile, the rest of us are hiding quietly behind the washing machine.

Swing State Project came down with a rare case of Saturday Night Fever over the weekend, with regularly scheduled primaries in Louisiana and the Senate special primary in West Virginia.

• Louisiana: For a brief moment there, back in June, David Vitter vs. Chet Traylor looked like it was going to be a fascinating GOP primary. In the end, though, Traylor’s failure to raise money or increase his profile, along with Louisianans’ decidedly laissez-faire (or is it laissez-les-bons-temps-rouler?) approach to their politicians’ peccadilloes, let Vitter escape with an 88-7 victory. That’s actually better than Charlie Melancon’s 71% against no-name opposition.

Two House races also had some drama. In LA-02 the question was more one of whether state Rep. Cedric Richmond could avoid a runoff against Juan LaFonta, rather than whether he could get the most votes. In the end, he did, winning 60-21 — despite a late financial onslaught from a deep-pocketed LaFonta-backing attorney, Stuart Smith, who created an anti-Richmond PAC called Louisiana Truth PAC — and will face endangered GOP accidental incumbent Joe Cao in November. In LA-03, former state House speaker Hunt Downer was the presumed frontrunner, but barely even squeaked into a runoff with attorney Jeff Landry; Landry got 49.6% to Downer’s 36%. Maybe it’s not that surprising, as Downer got in late and Landry had been running and fundraising all cycle; also, Landry had the teabagger cred while Downer was dragged down by the twin lead zeppelins of “establishment” and “former Democrat.” Downer has shrugged off calls for him to withdraw and avoid prolonging the fight, so the battle in the runoff (for the right to face Dem Ravi Sangisetty) will be for those 14% of voters who went for fellow teabagger Kristian Magar.

• West Virginia: Not much drama was expected here, and none was to be found. Gov. Joe Manchin won the Democratic nomination against a challenge from the left from former Rep., former SoS, and former Truman (!) administration official Ken Hechler, 73-17. He’ll face John Raese, whom you may remember spending millions of his own money in 2006 to finish in the mid-30s against Robert Byrd. Raese won the 10-person GOP field, drawing 71%. (The only other GOPer to break double-digits, at 15, was Mac Warner, last seen losing the WV-01 primary this spring.)

Politico:

The Alaska Libertarian Party will not swap its chosen nominee for Sen. Lisa Murkowski if she loses the GOP nomination.

“We have decided that we will not offer the nomination to Lisa Murkowski for the Senate seat, even if came to that, because of fundamental differences,” said Alaska Libertarian Party Chairman Scott Kohlhaas.

The prospect of getting a sitting United States Senator to change colors must have been a hard thing to turn down for a party that doesn’t even have any elected state legislators, but at the end of the day, it seems that the Libertarians had too many issues with Murkowski’s voting record. At the end of the day, though, this is good news for Democrats: polling has shown that Democrat Scott McAdams has the best shot against Miller in a two-way race. Of course, now the possibility exists that Murkowski could run as a write-in, should she lose the GOP nomination to Miller.

In other Alaska news, the latest updated tally of uncounted votes is now north of 25,000: 15,720 absentees, 663 early votes, and 9,117 questioned ballots. The Alaska DoE says that about 7,000 votes will be counted tomorrow, which should give us a good indication of just where this race will end up.

Meanwhile, Joe Miller sounds like a 2004-era tinfoil hatter, as his attorney is sounding the alarm over Murkowski supporters potentially tampering with the state’s “vulnerable” Diebold voting technology with their iPhones. God, this cat fud looks so tasty that even I may need to take a bite!

EPIC-MRA for Detroit Free Press (pdf)(8/21-23, likely voters, 6/12-15 in parentheses)

Virg Bernero (D): 29 (34)

Rick Snyder (R): 51 (49)

Undecided: 20 (17)

(MoE: ±4%)

When Rick Snyder started looking, at the end, like he might win the GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan, it raised an interesting question, given that Snyder was thoroughly dominant in pre-primary polls of the general election while the Dems were within striking distance of Peter Hoekstra and especially Mike Cox. Is it better to have a situation where, at the very worst, Michigan’s governor is a relatively sane, pleasant guy (albeit, at the end of the day, a Republican), or a situation where there’s a chance (though less than a 50% chance, given the nature of the year) of a Dem winning (but a greater than 50% chance of a truly odious creep being the next governor)? At any rate, once the dust settled on primary night, we were left with the former option, and now we’re seeing Snyder even further dominating Dem nominee Virg Bernero in polling. (The best post-primary result for the Dems actually comes from Rasmussen.)

The favorables tell pretty much the whole story here: Bernero’s “angry mayor” shtick doesn’t seem to be wearing well (he’s at 22/27), while Snyder’s post-partisan positioning gives him a remarkable 48/12 standing. Bernero — who over the weekend chose Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence as his running mate, which should help a bit in terms of African-American support and presence in the Detroit area — may improve his numbers as he gets better-known, but it may be too late for him to do much to define Snyder. With that in mind, Swing State Project is moving this race to “Lean Republican” from “Tossup.”

Another day, another dose of protein-enriched cat fud from the bitter Republican ballot battle between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski. This is what it’s all about, people.

The New Math: The Alaska Division of Elections announced over the weekend that they now have 23,472 ballots (and counting) to process. That number includes 13,740 absentee ballots (out of 16,000 that were requested), 9,069 questioned ballots, and 663 uncounted early votes. It bears repeating, of course, that not all of these ballots are Republican, and that some will inevitably be invalidated rather than counted. The first batch of votes will be counted on Tuesday, with additional counts on September 3rd and 8th. We don’t know how many votes will be counted tomorrow, but the Anchorage Daily News is reporting that the DoE will determine the number at some point today.

Hope for Murkowski?: The Juneau Empire took a closer look at where the absentee ballots are coming from, and finds that a “slightly larger” portion of the absentees are coming from Murkowski-friendly areas:

The biggest portion of the ballots remaining to be counted are absentees, which share some significant traits with a type of ballot that has already been counted: early ballots.

Both early votes and absentee votes were cast by voters who sometimes weren’t exposed to the last days of the campaign, which saw Sarah Palin making automated phone calls to Republican voters on behalf of Miller and Tea Party Express-funded ads making attacks on Murkowski.

While Miller won election-day voting 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent, Murkowski won 54.1 percent to 45.9 percent among early voters.

About three-quarters of the votes cast Tuesday were in the hotly contested Republican races for governor, lieutenant governor and senator. If that margin holds and the absentee votes mimic the early votes, that could eliminate Miller’s lead, the Empire’s analysis shows.

Also, a slightly larger proportion of the absentee votes come from areas where Murkowski ran strongly. Her strongest areas were in Southeast, where she was born, in Anchorage, which she represented in the Alaska Legislature, and in the Bush. Miller, from Fairbanks, was most strong in the Interior and the Mat-Su Valley.

Fear and Loathing in the Mat-Su Valley: Joe Miller’s sure been off to a great start in displaying Senatorial temperament, first getting nailed by us for comparing the Murkowski/Libertarian Party situation to prostitution and now snarling in the direction of the NRSC:

Miller telephoned POLITICO Friday night, in an apparent preemptive strike against absentee-ballot challenges by Republican officials.

“We’re very disturbed over the fact that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has chosen to send a group of high-powered lawyers up here to Alaska to interfere with our election process,” Miller said.

“It appears that they’re trying to steal an election. The fact of it is, is that they only have one [goal], and it certainly is not the integrity of the election. It’s to skew the results against Joe Miller.” […]

“We’ve received calls from many people that have been queried – absentee voters who are asked who they voted for,” Miller said. “We believe that the votes ought to be counted appropriately, as they always have, without the interference of lawyers that are out there calling Alaskan voters to see how they voted, and without making challenges to the ballots.”

Way to make friends, Joe! Of course, Miller can publicly abuse the NRSC as much as he wants, and that organization will react as stony-faced as the Queen’s Guard staring down a throng of ill-mannered children. At the end of the day, the committee will offer their full support to Miller — should he be the nominee — but you can bet they’ll be grimacing on the inside if they need to do so.

In the Anchorage Daily News, Miller campaign spokesman Randy DeSoto doubled down on the allegations, saying that the NRSC is engaged in a “nefarious” scheme to “throw out ballots” marked for Miller. I note with some amusement that Miller is accusing Murkowski of attempting to “pull an Al Franken”, while also drawing attention to the fact that one of Norm Coleman’s recount lawyers is apparently providing assistance to Murkowski. I guess the phrase “pulling a Norm Coleman” doesn’t have the same cachet in teabagger circles.

The Libertarian Option: Joe Miller’s tweet became a lot more famous than the article to which it was attempting to draw attention, but there was some good dirt in that particular Daily Caller article from Alaska Libertarian chair Scott Kohlhaas:

Scott Kohlhaas, state chairman for the Libertarian Party of Alaska, told TheDC that a number of things have to happen before any decision is made. “Rumors are flying but I really have no comment on them because, I mean, Lisa would have to decide to do it and then our candidate would have to decide to voluntarily step down [and] then our executive committee would have to vote on a decision.”

Kohlhaas said he has no illusions about the fact that Murkowski is not a Libertarian, but says that having her run as one would be a way to get more publicity for the Party and possibly help the Party gain seats in state legislatures. “There are 7,000 state legislative seats out there and we don’t have one,” he said. “As far as getting the name out there, this episode is doing that much better than any one state legislative seat would. And in terms of morale for our Party a state [senator] would be a real gain for us.”

At the end of the day Kohlaas recognizes that having Murkowski run as a member of the Libertarian Party would certainly “confuse some people because she is not libertarian.”

“But that happens all the time. Our job is to educate and get the philosophy out there,” he said. “If we decide to do this it will advance the Party and believe me we won’t do this for nothing.”

Kohlhaas said that it will ultimately be up to David Hasse to decide if he would be willing to step aside.

“Yesterday, he was inclined to do this but today maybe not,” Kohlhaas said.

A lot of “ifs” there, of course. Murkowski certainly has her share of supporters who would like to see her commandeer the Libertarian line, including Andrew Halcro, who says that he’s shelling out for a Dittman Research poll in order to see how Murkowski would do in a three-way race against Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams. (Of course, we’ve already seen a poll like that, but perhaps Dittman will find more encouragement for Murk.)

Facing the Nation: Miller appeared on CBS yesterday to give us all a taste of his overwhelmingly tea-stained agenda, and he had headlines like this one to show for it back home:

Miller: Alaska should forgo federal help

Uncle Ted this guy ain’t! Miller also stuck by his openness to privatize Social Security, moderating himself only to say that those who have paid into the program already can keep their benefits (this despite also suggesting that Medicare and Social Security are unconstitutional). How magnanimous of him! Of course, that’s the kind of talk that tickles the erogenous zones of the nutters at the Club for Growth, and The Creative Team Who Brought You Bill Sali is now saying that they’ll direct fundraising dollars to Miller.

The Real Deal: Meanwhile, tacked on at the end of a piece on the booming salmon harvest up in Alaska, we have some more color on Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, who sounds like a staunchly reality-based dude:

At a press conference after the primary election, McAdams, who grew up in Petersburg, said commercial fishing “goes to the core of my identity.”

“I learned to read, write and reason in a town where 85 cents on the dollar came from commercial fishing,” McAdams said. “I spent five years as a deckhand working in fisheries throughout the state.

“I seined in Southeast, Kodiak, I hand-bait longlined in the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. I have an appreciation and a great affinity for the lifestyle and the culture, and for the need for commercial fishing in our state.”

McAdams also picked up the endorsement of the Alaska AFL-CIO over the weekend (along with his fellow Democratic ticket-mates… and EFCA-backer Don Young). I’m looking forward to hearing more from and about McAdams once this Republican cat fud buffet is closed.