California: How Demographic Changes Impacted Partisan Changes (Part 3)

We next stop by the coastal counties outside the major urban centers. In most of the northern half, the coastal regions outside the cities started out Republican and began trending Democratic in the mid-20th century with the migration of urban people and the establishment of UC Santa Cruz in Santa Cruz County. Lake and bellwether San Benito Counties are technically not coastal, but their political dynamics are very similar to the non-major-urban coastal counties, so that is why I am including them here instead of with the other inland counties. San Luis Obispo and Del Norte counties are much further away from urban settings and thus have not had the Democratic trend of the others. Some of these counties, especially Mendocino and Humboldt, Perot and Nader way overperformed, which artificially made the counties more Republican in 2000.

Santa Barbara is regarded as mirroring California politically and demographically (while San Benito only mirrors the state politically) and its trend has largely followed the state’s. Ventura County was a originally a swing county and trended Republican as it became more of a suburb of L.A., before beginning trending the opposite direction in the 90s along with the rest of suburban SoCal.

While these counties don’t make up a very big slice of the pie population-wise, only about 10% or so, and are also growing slower than average, their Democratic trend is still more than welcome.

Del Norte

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
2,759
14.1%
0.08%
R+3.7
1930
4,739
71.8%
0.08%
D+5.4
1940
4,745
0.1%
0.07%
R+5.8
1950
8,078
70.2%
0.08%
R+9.0
1960
17,771
120.0%
0.11%
D+3.0
1970
14,580
-18.0%
0.07%
D+1.5
1980
18,217
24.9%
0.08%
R+3.0
1990
23,460
28.8%
0.08%
D+1.9
2000
27,507
17.3%
0.08%
R+7.2
2008*
29,100
5.8%
0.08%
R+6.9

Humboldt

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
37,413
10.5%
1.09%
R+12.5
1930
43,233
15.6%
0.76%
R+7.6
1940
45,812
6.0%
0.66%
D+1.4
1950
69,241
51.1%
0.65%
R+3.5
1960
104,892
51.5%
0.67%
D+4.0
1970
99,692
-5.0%
0.50%
D+5.2
1980
108,525
8.9%
0.46%
D+1.2
1990
119,118
9.8%
0.40%
D+9.9
2000
126,518
6.2%
0.37%
D+1.1
2008*
129,000
2.0%
0.35%
D+10.9

Lake

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
5,402
-2.2%
0.16%
D+4.1
1930
7,166
32.7%
0.13%
R+1.2
1940
8,069
12.6%
0.12%
R+10.4
1950
11,481
42.3%
0.11%
R+12.8
1960
13,786
20.1%
0.09%
R+8.2
1970
19,548
41.8%
0.10%
D+0.1
1980
36,366
86.0%
0.15%
R+0.9
1990
50,631
39.2%
0.17%
D+6.4
2000
58,309
15.2%
0.17%
D+4.3
2008*
64,866
11.2%
0.18%
D+5.9

Mendocino

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
24,116
0.8%
0.70%
R+5.0
1930
23,505
-2.5%
0.41%
R+0.7
1940
27,864
18.5%
0.40%
D+1.6
1950
40,854
46.6%
0.39%
R+5.9
1960
51,059
25.0%
0.32%
D+0.5
1970
51,101
0.1%
0.26%
D+3.5
1980
66,738
30.6%
0.28%
D+1.4
1990
80,345
20.4%
0.27%
D+13.6
2000
86,265
7.4%
0.25%
D+6.5
2008*
86,221
-0.1%
0.24%
D+17.5

Monterey

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
27,980
15.9%
0.82%
R+4.5
1930
53,705
91.9%
0.95%
R+2.5
1940
73,032
36.0%
1.06%
D+0.0
1950
130,498
78.7%
1.23%
R+6.1
1960
198,351
52.0%
1.26%
R+4.2
1970
247,450
24.8%
1.24%
R+0.6
1980
290,444
17.4%
1.23%
R+5.2
1990
355,660
22.5%
1.20%
D+5.0
2000
401,762
13.0%
1.19%
D+7.4
2008*
408,238
1.6%
1.12%
D+14.1

San Benito

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
8,995
11.9%
0.26%
R+1.2
1930
11,311
25.7%
0.20%
D+2.4
1940
11,392
0.7%
0.16%
R+2.1
1950
14,370
26.1%
0.14%
R+9.7
1960
15,396
7.1%
0.10%
R+1.8
1970
18,226
18.4%
0.09%
D+0.2
1980
25,005
37.2%
0.11%
R+3.7
1990
36,697
46.8%
0.12%
D+1.0
2000
53,234
45.1%
0.16%
D+4.1
2008*
54,699
2.8%
0.15%
D+6.1

San Luis Obispo

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
21,893
12.9%
0.64%
R+2.2
1930
29,613
35.3%
0.52%
D+3.7
1940
33,246
12.3%
0.48%
R+0.6
1950
51,417
54.7%
0.49%
R+9.4
1960
81,044
57.6%
0.52%
R+2.7
1970
105,690
30.4%
0.53%
R+0.4
1980
155,435
47.1%
0.66%
R+6.9
1990
217,162
39.7%
0.73%
R+1.9
2000
246,681
13.6%
0.73%
R+7.4
2008*
265,297
7.5%
0.73%
R+1.7

Santa Barbara

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
41,097
48.2%
1.20%
R+3.4
1930
65,167
58.6%
1.15%
R+5.2
1940
70,555
8.3%
1.02%
R+0.2
1950
98,220
39.2%
0.93%
R+12.4
1960
168,962
72.0%
1.08%
R+7.1
1970
264,324
56.4%
1.32%
R+1.0
1980
298,694
13.0%
1.26%
R+5.7
1990
369,608
23.7%
1.24%
D+0.1
2000
399,347
8.0%
1.18%
R+0.9
2008*
405,396
1.5%
1.11%
D+6.6

Santa Cruz

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
26,269
0.5%
0.77%
R+4.6
1930
37,433
42.5%
0.66%
R+5.8
1940
45,057
20.4%
0.65%
R+8.1
1950
66,534
47.7%
0.63%
R+12.9
1960
84,219
26.6%
0.54%
R+8.0
1970
123,790
47.0%
0.62%
D+2.5
1980
188,141
52.0%
0.79%
D+2.5
1990
229,734
22.1%
0.77%
D+17.9
2000
255,602
11.3%
0.75%
D+16.0
2008*
253,137
-1.0%
0.69%
D+25.9

Ventura

Year Population Change % of state PVI
1920
28,724
56.6%
0.84%
R+13.1
1930
54,976
91.4%
0.97%
R+5.0
1940
69,685
26.8%
1.01%
D+1.9
1950
114,647
64.5%
1.08%
D+3.4
1960
199,138
73.7%
1.27%
D+3.9
1970
378,497
90.1%
1.90%
R+4.6
1980
529,174
39.8%
2.24%
R+8.8
1990
669,016
26.4%
2.25%
R+5.4
2000
753,197
12.6%
2.22%
R+2.6
2008*
797,740
5.9%
2.18%
D+1.0

NY State Senate: Weekly Campaign Roundup #4

It’s time for the fourth edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  This week we’ve got endorsements from NYLCV and ESPA, and our candidates go on the attack while Republicans fight amongst themselves.

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

The New York League of Conservation Voters, a non-partisan, policy making and political action organization that works to make environmental protection a top priority, announced their support of numerous Democratic Senators and candidates . They endorsed 14 incumbent Democrats and 5 challengers – Dave Mejias, Susan Savage, Joanne Yepsen, Kathleen Joy, and Mary Wilmot. NYLCV President Marcia Bystryn had this to say specifically about Savage: “Susan Savage is exactly the kind of 21st century leader that New York needs. Susan knows that a healthy environment, green jobs and clean energy are not luxuries for the good times – they are the ways forward to a stronger, more economically vibrant New York.”

The Empire State Pride Agenda, the statewide, bi-partisan civil rights and political advocacy organization dedicated to winning equality and justice for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) New Yorkers, endorsed seven incumbent Democratic Senators and four Democratic challengers in their second round of 2010 endorsements. Not a single Republican was endorsed by the group. “These endorsements are the product of careful consideration by the Pride Agenda’s staff and Political Action Committee,” said executive director Ross Levi in a statement. “Our decisions are not based on a single issue, but a comprehensive review of a candidate’s positions and record, as well an assessment of his or her leadership qualities.”

Joe Williams, Executive Director of Democrats for Education Reform, wrote an op-ed in The New York Daily News that argued the leadership of Senate Majority Leader John Sampson and his fellow Democratic senators are responsible for New York still being in the race for federal dollars. Going forward, Williams argued, “the commitment the Democrats demonstrated for reform needs to be matched by elected officials, school districts and unions across the state.”

Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz has secured the Independence Party line in the November election. He was chosen after an interview and endorsement process. “Voters in the Hudson Valley have shown time and again that they want to be represented by legislators who are independent of the special interests as well as the Albany leadership of both the Republican and Democratic Parties,” Kaplowitz said in a statement. “As an Independent Democrat on the Westchester Board of Legislators, I have been able to lead the way toward cutting millions in waste from the budget, consolidating departments to save money, and reforming pensions.”

Democratic Candidate Dave Mejias attacked his opponent, 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon, for opposing a $1-per-hour pay raise for Nassau health-care workers . Mejias denounced Hannon’s position, saying: “A guy who has an extra $60,000 to loan his campaign telling workers they don’t deserve a $1 an hour raise is outrageous. 34 years in Albany has made Kemp Hannon quite comfortable, and he obviously doesn’t care what it’s like to try to feed a family on $20,000 a year.” Hannon has received $19,500 in campaign contributions from the Health Care Providers PAC since 2005. After the representatives from health care providers industry failed to provide evidence that the pay raise would hurt health care providers, an attempt to block the raise was unanimously rejected by the Nassau County Legislature on July 26.

Dave Mejias also launched a new campaign site this week.  Check it out at DaveForNewYork.com.

Dan Janison, of Newsday, profiled the race between Regina Calcaterra and 34-year Republican incumbent Ken LaValle. He said Calcaterra brings a “different style” to the race, that she is” hailed by her supporters as a sharp, energetic fighter,” and mentioned her work representing the state’s pension system in the high-profile lawsuit against WorldCom.

After 26-year incumbent and Bruno-successor Dean Skelos criticized Democrats for holding an extra legislative session, Democratic Candidate George Sava hit Skelos with the sad truth of some hard facts. Sava responded by saying: “Skelos is the expert when it comes to wasting tax money. After all, he voted to double state spending over 14 years, stuck taxpayers with a bill for over $1.2 million to fund his office last year, and allowed property taxes to rise 320 percent since he was elected. Nassau County tax payers are suffering. We need public servants who don’t just point the finger but come up with real solutions.”

REPUBLICANS

The Senate GOP decided to attack one of its own this week. Republican Greg Ball, who is running for the GOP nomination in SD-40 where Democratic Candidate Mike Kaplowitz has been running a stellar campaign, woke up to quite a smackdown from the GOP. In response to his organizing a “Women for Ball” event, the SRCC issued the following statement: “This is a tired rerun of what happened two years ago when news first broke that Greg Ball had been hit with an order of protection for stalking his ex-girlfriend. The facts are the facts, and Greg Ball stands accused of groping a waitress at an Albany bar, an account several eyewitnesses confirmed. Today, he trots out a woman whose mother is on the payroll of Ball political ally Steve Katz to spread lies. Those accusations are slanderous and are subject to legal liability. The residents of Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester counties are tired of the distractions, tired of the conspiracy theories and tired of all of the excuses. You can’t take anything Greg Ball says seriously.” For once, a statement well put by the SRCC.

Incumbent Republican Martin Golden, facing his first election contest in years, dropped his petition challenge of Democratic Candidate Mike DiSanto‘. DiSanto declared that he was not surprised by the Golden campaign’s challenge, adding that it is not unusual for “entrenched” incumbent politicians to challenge opponent petition signatures. “Everyone in the community knows my signatures are valid,” said DiSanto. “We live in a democracy and do not crown kings in America. I will not be intimidated by those who seek to undermine the political freedom that our country was founded upon,” With 2,100 signatures, he collected over twice the number required.

Former New York City Council Member Anthony Como, a Republican running for State Senate against Sen. Joe Addabbo, has been ordered to repay nearly $13,000 in unspent and misspent funds to the New York City Campaign Finance Board. The charges stem from his losing 2008 general election Council loss to Elizabeth Crowley. The repayment includes $6,800 that was spent impermissibly on phone and copy machine contracts for his campaign office that spanned well beyond Election Day, repayments of unspent campaign funds, and $100 spent on a newspaper ad for the Holy Child Jesus Team Drama Club that the CFB deemed not campaign related.

Ohio Senate 2010 Baselines – Fisher vs Portman

So anyway, yeah, in case you haven’t heard, we have another razor-close federal election shaping up in Ohio.  I know, surprise surprise, but I’m going to try to diagram where I think both candidates need to do to win this election.  I’ll start with each candidates’ respective bases and then move to the swing areas.  

Fisher’s base – Lee Fisher’s base is in Cuyahoga County and in democratic northeastern Ohio.  As such, to win this election, he’s going to need to run up percentages mirroring what Barack Obama got at the very least, and he should be able to beat his percentages in some areas that were cool to Obama for cultural reasons.  

Portman’s base – Rob Portman’s base is in the Cincinnati area and in southwestern Ohio.  As such, to win the election, Portman is going to need to run extremely well in metro Cincinnati and in the rural reaches of the west and southwest of the state.  His goal should be to meet or exceed the percentages put up here by George W. Bush in 2004.  

Now for the really important stuff.  Assuming Portman and Fisher carry their bases (and believe me, if one doesn’t, they are toast), there are three regions that need to be watched to see who is going to pull this one out.  One area is fairly populous, and the other two aren’t, but nevertheless could swing the race.

1.Northwestern Ohio – This area includes Toledo and the rural reaches surrounding it.  The farmlands are usually solid GOP, but Barack Obama exposed a divide here, as he did extremely well in the farmlands along the I-80 corridor, winning several counties not won since Clinton and holding down margins elsewhere.  Portman must seek to sweep this area and put up numbers similar to George W. Bush’s 2000/2004 marks and hold down the margin a bit in Toledo.  A lot of this region falls into the economic conservative/social liberal category, so Portman’s job might not be as difficult as it would appear on paper given the year.

2.Southeastern Ohio – This region is one in which democrats usually do well, but despite his win Barack Obama had difficulties here in 2008, mostly due to race and cultural difficulties in the mostly white, working-class electorate.  Lee Fisher, being an establishment Ohio democrat, shouldn’t have too many issues here.  The electorate is socially conservative/economically liberal, and probably wouldn’t be inclined to like Portman’s financial stickiness and his support of offshoring.  The GOP candidate’s goal will be to try to replicate John McCain’s success here, but his job will be more difficult because of his policy positions.

3.The I-70 corridor – This is the one region of the state that is often the decider in a close election, and it surprises me that it never seems to get much coverage.  What is the I-70 corridor?  I define it as a belt that stretches through three counties, that until recently were swingish, and includes the cities of Dayton, Springfield, and Columbus.  All three of these places could potentially be competitive in this election, though Columbus less so than the others.  Fisher will need to win Dayton and especially Columbus by big margins and try to win Springfield outright, while Portman will try to pull an upset in Dayton, win Springfield strongly, and hold the margin close in Columbus.

Which brings us to the map:

Ohio Senate 2010

Colors:

Pink/Light Blue – 0-6% win

Red/Blue – 6-12% win

Dark Red/Dark Blue – 12%+ win

As you can see here, the northeastern base for Fisher and the southwestern base for Portman are well represented, as are the swing regions of the state.  If the election were to play out exactly like this, we’d be heading to a recount, though Fisher would have a lead of about 10k votes.  So consider these the marks that Fisher has to hit, and that Portman must beat, to win.  The turnout totals are based on the 2006 senate election, slightly modified for population growth/loss and expected turnout.

county fisher portman

Northwest Region 261357 293658 555015 47.1% 52.9%

williams 5838 7143 12981 45.0% 55.0%

defiance 6024 7577 13601 44.3% 55.7%

paulding 2956 4576 7532 39.2% 60.8%

van wert 3577 6839 10416 34.3% 65.7%

mercer 4813 10718 15531 31.0% 69.0%

auglaize 5745 11842 17587 32.7% 67.3%

allen 14197 21921 36118 39.3% 60.7%

putnam 3300 10539 13839 23.8% 76.2%

henry 5094 6377 11471 44.4% 55.6%

fulton 7336 8679 16015 45.8% 54.2%

lucas 80630 56159 136789 58.9% 41.1%

wood 22805 22747 45552 50.1% 49.9%

hancock 8498 18621 27119 31.3% 68.7%

hardin 4079 5703 9782 41.7% 58.3%

wyandot 3212 4901 8113 39.6% 60.4%

crawford 7227 9455 16682 43.3% 56.7%

seneca 9442 10643 20085 47.0% 53.0%

sandusky 11299 11583 22882 49.4% 50.6%

ottawa 9548 8972 18520 51.6% 48.4%

erie 16572 13018 29590 56.0% 44.0%

huron 8934 9994 18928 47.2% 52.8%

richland 20231 25651 45882 44.1% 55.9%

Northeast Region 840114 587727 1427841 58.8% 41.2%

lorain 58129 41429 99558 58.4% 41.6%

ashland 7740 11449 19189 40.3% 59.7%

holmes 2210 5841 8051 27.5% 72.5%

wayne 15799 22485 38284 41.3% 58.7%

medina 30586 36186 66772 45.8% 54.2%

cuyahoga 295568 139235 434803 68.0% 32.0%

summit 116776 78559 195335 59.8% 40.2%

stark 71975 67353 139328 51.7% 48.3%

portage 30776 23875 54651 56.3% 43.7%

geauga 18403 23153 41556 44.3% 55.7%

lake 46649 43988 90637 51.5% 48.5%

ashtabula 18651 14878 33529 55.6% 44.4%

trumbull 49586 28520 78106 63.5% 36.5%

mahoning 58364 32851 91215 64.0% 36.0%

columbiana 18902 17925 36827 51.3% 48.7%

Central Region 386100 409689 795789 48.5% 51.5%

marion 9578 12026 21604 44.3% 55.7%

morrow 5176 7299 12475 41.5% 58.5%

coshocton 6024 7340 13364 45.1% 54.9%

knox 9041 12536 21577 41.9% 58.1%

licking 24599 35312 59911 41.1% 58.9%

muskingum 13664 14534 28198 48.5% 51.5%

delaware 27709 43024 70733 39.2% 60.8%

union 6550 11281 17831 36.7% 63.3%

logan 6409 9797 16206 39.5% 60.5%

champaign 5689 8498 14187 40.1% 59.9%

madison 5414 8010 13424 40.3% 59.7%

franklin 209461 168198 377659 55.5% 44.5%

fairfield 23283 33506 56789 41.0% 59.0%

perry 5927 5255 11182 53.0% 47.0%

hocking 5064 4662 9726 52.1% 47.9%

pickaway 7458 11459 18917 39.4% 60.6%

ross 11761 11801 23562 49.9% 50.1%

fayette 3293 5151 8444 39.0% 61.0%

Southwest Region 399464 582617 982081 40.7% 59.3%

darke 7067 13111 20178 35.0% 65.0%

shelby 6122 11101 17223 35.5% 64.5%

miami 12354 24699 37053 33.3% 66.7%

clark 23650 25456 49106 48.2% 51.8%

greene 21415 40797 62212 34.4% 65.6%

montgomery 95491 90122 185613 51.4% 48.6%

preble 5621 10036 15657 35.9% 64.1%

butler 38443 80854 119297 32.2% 67.8%

hamilton 129134 155467 284601 45.4% 54.6%

clermont 22333 46588 68921 32.4% 67.6%

warren 19102 54588 73690 25.9% 74.1%

clinton 4505 8187 12692 35.5% 64.5%

highland 5174 7797 12971 39.9% 60.1%

brown 5650 8547 14197 39.8% 60.2%

adams 3403 5267 8670 39.3% 60.7%

Southeast Region 126748 127907 254655 49.8% 50.2%

pike 4845 4798 9643 50.2% 49.8%

scioto 13466 12708 26174 51.4% 48.6%

lawrence 8261 11216 19477 42.4% 57.6%

jackson 4453 5833 10286 43.3% 56.7%

gallia 3903 6155 10058 38.8% 61.2%

vinton 1884 2601 4485 42.0% 58.0%

meigs 3190 4569 7759 41.1% 58.9%

athens 10788 5739 16527 65.3% 34.7%

morgan 2655 2823 5478 48.5% 51.5%

guernsey 6334 6905 13239 47.8% 52.2%

noble 2311 2859 5170 44.7% 55.3%

washington 10231 12540 22771 44.9% 55.1%

monroe 3431 2535 5966 57.5% 42.5%

belmont 13190 10356 23546 56.0% 44.0%

jefferson 13473 12188 25661 52.5% 47.5%

harrison 2930 3050 5980 49.0% 51.0%

tuscarawas 15860 15524 31384 50.5% 49.5%

carroll 5543 5508 11051 50.2% 49.8%

Statewide Total 2013783 2001598 4015381 50.15% 49.85%

SSP Daily Digest: 8/4 (Morning Edition)

  • FL-Sen: Is Marco Rubio off the supply-side reservation? He admitted in a recent campaign stop that “tax cuts don’t pay for themselves,” which seems like high-grade Republican apostasy. I look forward to his undoubtedly forthcoming apology.
  • Meanwhile, more interestingly, Jeff Greene is getting in some hot water for his maritime adventures. At a debate on Sunday, Greene claimed he had visited Cuba in 2007 – a very touchy subject in South Florida, of course – as part of a Jewish humanitarian mission. Oops, says a campaign spokesbot – “What he meant to say was that in 2007, he went on the boat from Honduras to the Bahamas, and en route the boat had a hydraulic problem” and made a pit-stop in Cuba. Yuh huh – cuz I always mix up yachting hijinks with charity tours with my rabbi. But wait, there’s more! A former Greene deckhand (and there are quite a few who despise their old boss) says the candidate is lying, and that “It was their total intention to go to Cuba. We never went to Honduras, not even close. I figure it was the glamour of wanting to go to a banned country.” Good luck explaining this one away.

  • CA-Gov: Props to Jonathan Martin at Politico for making sure this one didn’t get flushed down the oubliette: Ins. Co. Steve Poizner still has not endorsed Meg Whitman, who vanquished him in the GOP primary.
  • NM-Gov: A new front in the New Mexico governor’s race: Dem Diane Denish says she supports a domestic partnership law, which would give same-sex couples many of the same rights as heterosexual married couples. Predictably, Republican Susana Martinez is opposed. Domestic partnership bills have come up regularly in the state legislature but have always foundered. Of course, this issue may or may not get a lot of traction in a year like this.
  • TN-09: Willie Herenton is claiming that early voting patterns show him well on the way to a 3-to-1 victory over Rep. Steve Cohen. You can supply the laughter.
  • NY-24: Rep. Mike Arcuri, spurned by both the Independence and Working Families Parties, is still trying to get on a second ballot line – one of his own creation. His campaign is petitioning to create an “NY Moderates” party.
  • IN-02: Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly is up with a pair of ads attacking “Wacky” Jackie Walorsky for her support of Wall Street and for “free trade” deals with Mexico and China. Of course, NWOTSOTB.
  • FL-22: This just shows you how stark raving insane Allen West is. While serving in Iraq in 2003, he claims he got wind of a plot… against himself. Rather than recuse himself from the investigation, he ordered his subordinates to beat a detainee, and then threatened the man with summary execution – going so far as to fire a gun over his head. You can find the full story here, but the reason why this is coming up is that West just released an absurdly self-serving video where he portrays himself as some kind of heroic Jack Bauer – but the reality is that West only avoided criminal charges by tendering his resignation to the Army.
  • PA-07: Look, if I were Pat Meehan, I’d howl about this, too – but the fact is, even if Dem Bryan Lentz’s campaign did help teabagger Jim Schneller qualify for the ballot, that’s just fucking politics. (The Lentz camp isn’t answering any questions, but a lot of Schneller’s petitions were circulated by Lentz supporters.) And what’s more, as Alex Roarty at PoliticsPA points out, Schneller is very likely to stay on the ballot, which will undoubtedly help Lentz – and all the whining in the world won’t change that.
  • WI-07: A shadowy right-wing 527 (are any of them not shadowy?) with the oddly dystopian name of “the New Prosperity Foundation” has a new TV ad trying to stereotype Dem Julie Lassa as a “big-spending politician.” Of course, NWOTSOTB.
  • Fundraising: Aaron Blake and the staff at the Fix have truly done heroic work: They’ve compiled gubernatorial fundraising numbers, an epically daunting task given that you need to navigate a million different state SoS websites, with different interfaces, reporting requirements, and reporting periods. Still, somehow, they managed to do so, and they have the most recent fundraising nums for all the major gube races around the nation – just click on the “Governors Races” tab.
  • Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri Results Thread #3

    12:56am: The AP’s called KS-01 for Tim Huelskamp. With MI-01 and MI-02 not looking like they’ll be resolved tonight, and MI-09 having a clear frontrunner in Raczkowski, SSP is going to call it a night!

    12:50am: MI-09 (R) is looking good for Rocky Raczkowski, who’s ahead 42-27 with 72% reporting.

    12:48am: The KS-04 GOP primary is called for Mike Pompeo, who has 39%. Pro-choice Planned Parenthood-endorsed state Senator Jean Schodorf finishes second with 24%.

    12:42am: The AP’s also called MI-03 for Justin Amash, who becomes the favorite to succeed outgoing GOPer Vern Ehlers. KS-02 (D) is called for Cheryl Hudspeth, and not netroots fave Sean Tevis, who finishes in third.

    12:39am: The AP’s finally called MI-13 for Hansen Clarke. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is the 4th House incumbent and 6th member of Congress to get booted, joining the ranks of Reps. Parker Griffith, Alan Mollohan, and Bob Inglis and Sens. Arlen Specter and Bob Bennett.

    12:33am: The AP’s called Jerry Moran the winner in KS-Sen. Just like we’ve been saying.

    12:28am: Back in Kansas, Moran continues to nurse his lead over Tiahrt. Still very little from the three largest counties in KS-01, which is 70% reporting and 69-27 Moran. KS-04 is 85% reporting, 67-27 Tiahrt. Moran winning the rest 48-45.

    12:22am: Legal just got back to us about Michigan’s automatic recounts, and the 2,000-vote margin provision applies only to statewide contests.

    12:18am: Just two measly precincts left in MI-01, where the margin has shrunk to 39 votes. The ticker tape says a mere 10-vote margin for Benishek when this is over.

    12:07am: Just five precincts left in MI-01. Two are in Allen-friendly Bay County, the rest in Benishek-friendly Iosco County. SSPLabs predicts an 86-vote edge for Benishek when this is done.

    12:05am: Back in MI-02, most of the outstanding precincts are in Muskegon County, where Bill Cooper’s getting almost half the vote. That won’t push him back into contention, but Riemersma’s 2nd-place performance there so far might help him overcome his 593-vote deficit to Huizenga.

    12:01am: Here’s one race we haven’t mentioned too much tonight: MI-09. According to the Oakland County Clerk, Rocky Raczkowski has a 41-26 lead over Paul Welday with almost 50% in.

    11:57pm: The recount provisions may be significant in MI-02 as well, where Bill Huizenga has a 600-vote lead over Jay Riemersma.

    11:55pm: In MI-01, Benishek continues to hold his narrow lead over Allen. SSP Labs is telling us this will hold and that Benishek will prevail by about 120 votes. SSP Legal is looking to Michigan’s recount provisions; the standard in general elections is 2,000 votes or less, no word on primaries.

    11:36pm: The Missouri GOP House primaries are pretty much over (but with no calls from the AP yet). In MO-04, Vicki Hartzler is up 41-30 over Bill Stouffer and has a 9,000 vote edge; in MO-07, Billy Long is up 37-29 over Jack Goodman and has a 7,500 vote edge.

    11:34pm: The KS-Sen race has been called! The Dem side, that is, for Lisa Johnston.

    11:31pm: More precincts trickle in up in MI-01. The SSP Labs mainframe is still telling us 38.8 Benishek, 37.8 Allen. It’s telling us also there are about 3,100 votes left to count.

    11:26pm: KS-Sen keeps seesawing with us, but this recent tightening can be attributed to another 11% of KS-04 having rolled in. Tiahrt’s still winning his base 68-27, Moran’s winning his 69-28, and Moran splitting the DMZ (still) 48-45. KS-01 is still at 52% reporting.

    11:24pm: State Rep. Kevin Yoder’s been declared the winner on the GOP side in KS-03, he’ll go on to face Stephene Moore in November.

    11:18pm: Back on the GOP side, Jerry Moran is starting to pull away from Todd Tiahrt. 51% of Moran’s KS-01 is reporting compared to 57% of Tiahrt’s KS-04. More votes are being cast in KS-01 and Moran’s also winning the neutral zone 48-45.

    11:16pm: In the significantly less-exciting KS-Sen Dem primary, Lisa Johnston continues to nurse her 31-24 lead over Charles Schollenberger.

    11:12pm: A mere 36 votes separates Benishek from Allen in MI-01, but SSP Labs is still telling us that Benishek will pull this out 38.9 to 37.7, thanks to his strong 53-26 in the UP while holding his losses to 46-29 under the bridge.

    11:10pm: Michigan Radio has called MI-13 for Hansen Clarke, making Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick the 4th House incumbent booted this year.

    11:06pm: The lead keeps changing hands in MI-02; Kuipers has fallen from first to third, while Riemersma has moved to second. 72% reporting there. Amash is still leading in MI-03; Clarke continues to hold the advantage over Cheeks Kilpatrick in MI-13.


    It’s a progressive party!

    Results:

         Kansas: Associated Press | Politico

         Michigan: Associated Press | Politico | MI DoS

         Missouri: Associated Press | Politico | MO SoS

    Kansas, Michigan & Missouri Primary Results Thread #2

    11:07pm: Follow us over here.

    11:05pm: One more KS-Sen point before we wrap up this thread: four of the largest counties in Moran’s KS-01 have reported either 0 or 1 precincts so far: Reno (Hutchinson), Geary (Junction City), Ford (Dodge City), and Finney (Garden City). So the tide is only beginning to turn.

    10:57pm: More on KS-Sen: even with Johnson Co., Moran is still leading Tiahrt in the neutral districts, 48-45. Their own districts are a wash: Moran is winning the 1st 69-28, and Tiahrt is winning the 4th 67-28.

    10:55pm: Now this is interesting. Johnson Co., the biggest county in Kansas, seemed to report every precinct en masse… and it went narrowly for Tiahrt (49-45) despite Moran, at least to my mind, fitting its suburban profile better. Nevertheless, despite losing the prize of Johnson Co., Moran is, as expected, starting to pull back ahead. He’s up to a 48-46 lead over Tiahrt, with 56% reporting statewide.

    10:51pm: SSP Labs is projecting 39.1% for Benishek, 37.4% for Allen when all is said and done in MI-01.

    10:48pm: 88% are reporting in MI-01 R, and we aren’t anywhere near a conclusion yet. It’s Benishek over Allen, 39-38, with a 900-vote spread separating them.

    10:46pm: And add yet one more. The AP has called MI-07 R for Tim Walberg, who beats Brian Rooney 59-31. That’s gotta be good for us… Walberg is too wingnutty for that swing district, and having run for that office the last three times, everybody already knows him.

    10:44pm: The AP adds one more call: the D primary in MI-12. Sandy Levin beats the promotion-seeking state Sen. Mickey Switalski fairly convincingly, 73-27.

    10:43pm: And the AP has called KS-04 D for Raj Goyle, who most definitely did not get VicRawl’d tonight. He beats Robert Tillman 81-19, a bit like smashing an ant with a hammer, but those ads will still help build up his name rec for November.

    10:41pm: The AP has called MI-Gov R for Rick Snyder. Good news: the next governor of Michigan will not be a wingnut. Bad news: Snyder, with his moderate appeal, will probably be the toughest matchup for Bernero in November.

    10:37pm: I haven’t seen this many Dutch guys beating the crap out of each other since the last time Feyenoord played PSV Eindhoven. (Sorry, obscure ‘football’ reference there.)

    10:36pm: Meanwhile, back in MI-02, which Hoekstra is probably feeling bad about having vacated, it’s a 30-30 tie between Huizenga and Kuipers. Social con Riemersma (who polls had in the lead) is falling back to 18, with teabagger Cooper at 12.

    10:34pm: No AP call yet on the GOP side in MI-Gov, but we’re getting word that Peter Hoekstra has conceded the race (presumably to Snyder, who leads Hoekstra 37-26, with Cox at 24).

    10:32pm: Here’s more data from SSP Labs, about KS-Sen, where the spread is about 600 votes. About 40% of Tiahrt’s district has reported, though, while only 23% of Moran’s has, and Moran is winning the other two CDs, 51-41.

    10:31pm: In Missouri, Vicki Hartzler has pulled into a bigger lead in the MO-04 GOP primary. She’s up on Stouffer, 42-30. That’s with 62% reporting, including both of their home counties fully in.

    10:29pm: Great White Dope Lynn Jenkins is going back to the House from KS-02 for another term, it looks like. The AP has called her race against Dennis Pyle, although she finishes with an underwhelming 59%.

    10:26pm: In KS-Sen, the real question mark is going to be Johnson County. This is the most populous county in the state, the suburbs ringing Kansas City, Kansas, and the core of KS-03. Only 1 of 447 is reporting so far (with a 50-42 lead for Moran, in case you care).

    10:25pm: This is the first time all night we’ve seen a Todd Tiahrt lead in KS-Sen. They’re both at 47%, with Tiahrt ahead by about 900, with 27% reporting. Bear in mind, though, that Segwick Co. (Wichita, Tiahrt’s town) has largely reported; it’s 74% in. So this is probably as good as it gets for Tiahrt.

    10:20pm: We’ve suddenly jumped to two-thirds reporting in the MO-07 R primary. That clot of Nodler voters in Newton Co. apparently showed up, but it’s not enough to swing the needle. It’s still Long 35, Goodman 29, Nodler 16.

    10:08pm: Over in MI-01, Benishek now leads Allen by 39-38. In KS-01, Huelskamp has pulled to a 35-25-24 lead over Barnett and Mann, but there are lots of votes left to count there.

    10:03pm: In the KS-Sen race, Moran now leads Tiahrt by only 47-46, but bear in mind that Tiahrt’s home district (KS-04) has more precincts reporting than Moran’s 1st CD so far.

    10:01pm: Over in MI-13, Clarke leads Cheeks Kilpatrick by 48-38 with just under 37% in. To take a look at the track record of other House incumbents who’ve faced primaries this cycle, check out our handy chart here.

    9:58pm: With more than 1/3 in, things are still very tight in MO-04. Hartzler leads Stouffer, 37-35. On the Dem side, the race has been called for Ike Skelton. He defeated man/lion hybrid Leonard Steinman… the very kind of being that the GOP is looking to stamp out… 81 to 19.

    9:56pm: One race that isn’t close is MI-07, also with almost half in. It’s Walberg 58, Rooney 32. Thus ending the dream of two Rooney brothers in the House… and of Domino’s Pizza having its own personal in-house Representative.

    9:55pm: More than half is reporting in MI-01, and Jason Allen continues to nurse a small lead (39-37) on Dan Benishek.

    9:53pm: On the R side, we’re probably nowhere near a call. Snyder’s at 37, with Hoekstra closest at 26, and Cox at 24. Bouchard (and by extension Ted Nugent) pretty much a non-factor here at 11.

    9:51pm: The AP has called MI-Gov D for Virg Bernero! He leads Andy Dillon at the same 58-42, with about 20% reporting.

    9:49pm: Wow, things are even closer in KS-Sen now. It’s Moran 47, Tiahrt 46 with 10% in.

    9:48pm: In KS-04, we have enough to report on: Mike Pompeo leads at 37, with Jean Schodorf (who led at very first) at 29, and Wink Hartman at 21. And on the Dem side, looks like the Raj Goyle ad blitz paid off, and then some. He’s beating Robert Tillman 79-21.

    9:47pm: Back in KS-02, Lynn Jenkins continues to underwhelm in the GOP primary; she’s at 59 against teabagging state Sen. Dennis Pyle. At least she’s doing better than Sean Tevis, who’s in 3rd and last place among the Dems.

    9:46pm: Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick looks like she’s on her way to becoming the 4th primary casualty in the House this year. With 27% in, she trails Hansen Clarke 50-35.

    9:45pm: Wow, nearly a 3-way tie in the GOP field in KS-01: Mann 29, Huelskamp 28, Barnett 26.

    9:43pm: Things are just getting underway in KS-03, with about 3% in, but Kevin Yoder has a pretty solid lead over Patricia Lightner in the GOP primary: 48-35.


    Moving the party over to a fresh new thread.

    Results:

         Kansas: Associated Press | Politico

         Michigan: Associated Press | Politico | MI DoS

         Missouri: Associated Press | Politico | MO SoS

    Michigan & Missouri Primary Results Open Thread

    9:41pm: Follow us over here.

    9:40pm: I don’t think we’ve even mentioned the Kansas Dem Senate primary, not that we really need to. Lisa Johnston leads at 35, with Charles Schollenberger at 23, and David Haley (a state Senator and former SoS candidate, no less) a woeful 17.

    9:39pm: Switching back to Kansas, things are getting tighter between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Moran leads 49-44 with about 8% in.

    9:36pm: Speaking of MI-02, that GOP primary may be the night’s most exciting match. It’s currently Huizenga 26, Kuipers 25, Riemersma 24, Cooper 19.

    9:34pm: Although Peter Hoekstra can take some comfort in the fact that he’s still well-liked back home. He’s up 50-25 over Snyder within the bounds of MI-02.

    9:33pm: As we close in on 20% statewide in Michigan, things are looking fairly stable in the governor’s races. Virg Bernero leads 58-24 over Andy Dillon for the Ds. For the GOP, it’s Snyder 36, Hoekstra 27, Cox 25, Bouchard 10. Looks like cornering the moderate market worked out for tough nerd Snyder.

    9:31pm: Thanks to a big margin in the Lower Peninsula, Jason Allen’s pulling into the lead in MI-01, now 39-38 over Dan Benishek.

    9:30pm: As more votes pour in, things are tightening up in MI-13. Hansen Clarke still leads Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, but with about 10% in, it’s still a pretty big Clarke lead: 50-32. At least she’s over the Bob Inglis line for worst incumbent primary performance.

    9:28pm: The most drama in Missouri seems to be in the GOP field in MO-04, where social con Vicki Hartzler leads state Sen. Bill Stouffer 39-34.

    9:27pm: What am I bid for a House seat? With about 10% reporting, auctioneer Billy Long is cruising in MO-07, with 40%. State Sen. Gary Nodler’s stronghold of Newton Co. hasn’t reported yet though (he’s only at 8, with J. Goodman at 22).

    9:25pm: Show Me the money! The AP has called the GOP Senate primary in Missouri, no surprise, for Roy Blunt. He’s beating Chuck Purgason 72-13 in one of the cycle’s bigger cases of teabagger fail.

    9:23pm: Wow, major momentum shift in MI-02 again. Now teabagger Bill Cooper’s in 4th! Huizenga and Kuipers share the lead at 26, with about 15% in.

    9:21pm: Only 5% in in KS-01, but in the R primary there, birther real estate agent Tracey Mann leads at 32, with CfG fave Tim Huelskamp at 27 and ‘moderate’ Jim Barnett at 20. No runoffs in Kansas.

    9:20pm: I think most people had forgotten that Lynn Jenkins in KS-02 was getting a semi-legit teabagger challenge (state Sen. Dennis Pyle). She’s winning, but with an underwhelming 60-40 margin with about 3% in.

    9:19pm: Hmm, things much tighter suddenly in MI-01 GOP primary. Benishek leads Allen 40-38.

    9:18pm: Switching over to Kansas, Jerry Moran is in the lead, 52-40. Moran leads 73-22 in KS-01, while Todd Tiahrt leads 55-38 in KS-04.

    9:16pm: In MI-09, Rocky Raczkowski is way in the lead in the GOP primary: 50-28 over Paul Welday, Joe Knollenberg’s former CoS.

    9:15pm: And in MI-07, the guy who was teabagging before it was called teabagging, Tim Walberg, looks like he’ll be back for revenge. He’s beating establishment choice Brian Rooney 55-34.

    9:13pm: In MI-03: state Rep. (and teabagger) Justin Amash is running away with it at 47%, with Hardiman at 17 and Heacock at 19.

    9:12pm: Check out MI-02: teabagging businessman Bill Cooper’s in the lead at 30 with nearly 10% in, with those three Dutch-named guys all clumped in the low 20s.

    9:08pm: It’s early, but get a load of netroots fave Sean Tevis in KS-02 — the dude is in third place against a pair of Some Dudes!

    9:06pm: Hoekstra’s leading 47-27 in his home CD, but in 3rd elsewhere.

    9:04pm: In MI-06, Fred Upton has nosed down to 55% against wingnut’s wingnut Jack Hoogendyk.

    9:01pm: Back in Michigan, Virg Bernero has shot up to a 59-41 lead over Andy Dillon. For the Republicans, Rick Snyder is ahead of Pete “The Incredible Hoek” Hoekstra by 35-28. Just over 7% of precincts reporting.

    8:57pm: Though this was a foregone conclusion, the Associated Press has called the Dem Senate nomination in Missouri for Robin Carnahan.

    8:55pm: Just a handful of votes in in MI-13, but Hansen Clarke is leading Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick by 43-17 so far.

    8:51pm: Some more GOP House race updates: In MI-01, Benishek leads Allen by 45-30; in MI-02, Kuipers leads Riemersma by 26-23 (with Huizenga very close behind); in MI-07, Walberg leads Rooney by 55-34.

    8:49pm: Wow, check out MI-06 — Republican incumbent Fred Upton is only at 55.5% against teabagging ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk. 20% of precincts are reporting.

    8:43pm: A good sign for Dan Benishek in MI-01 (R): he’s leading 53-19 in the UP, but also edging out Jason Allen 35-34 in the LP.

    8:40pm: Regional divisions are becoming pretty evident in a few races. In MI-Gov (R), Peter Hoekstra’s scoring 61% in his home district while only 27% elsewhere. In KS-Sen (R), Jerry Moran’s getting 73% in his home district to Tiahrt’s 22%; he’s also leading 59-34 in the rest of the state. Nothing in Tiahrt’s home district’s reported though.

    8:39pm: The AP’s called KS-Gov (R) for Sam Brownback.

    8:24pm: House races for the GOP: In MI-07, Walberg’s out to an early lead with 66%; in MI-01, with two UP precincts in, Dan Benishek’s up 37-26 over Jason Allen. In Missouri, Vicki Hartzler is up 36-28 over Bill Stouffer in MO-04.

    8:22pm: A few results in Michigan, where on the Dem side, Andy Dillon has a 3% advantage over Virg Bernero. On the GOP side, Peter Hoekstra’s out to an early lead with 35%, with Mike Cox behind at 28% and Rick Snyder at 23.

    8:18pm: A surprising result in MO-08 (R) so far, with incumbent Jo Ann Emerson earning only 60%.

    8:12pm: Our first results in for the night, a lonely precinct in Missouri where Roy Blunt has 55% to Chuck Purgason’s 37% in the GOP Senate primary.


    Let’s do this thing.

    Results:

         Kansas: Associated Press | Politico

         Michigan: Associated Press | Politico | MI DoS

         Missouri: Associated Press | Politico | MO SoS

    The White Female Vote in 2008

    By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

    What if only white females voted in the 2008 presidential election?

    This is the type of question social scientists and individuals like me love to explore, and which everybody else presumably finds quite boring. More fascinating still, there is actually a somewhat reliable answer to the question. This is because, in every state of the union, there are exit polls of the white female vote in 2008.

    It turns out that if only white females voted in 2008, Senator John McCain would have won the popular vote 53% to 46%, taking a comfortable eight-point lead.

    Senator Barack Obama, however, would be president. He would win a razor-thin, 273 to 265 majority in the electoral college:

    Photobucket

    More below.

    This is quite a remarkable result. Mr. Obama loses by eight percentage  points amongst white female voters – yet still wins the electoral  college and becomes president. Imagine if Senator John McCain lost the real 2008 presidential election by the exact same popular margin and then magically won the electoral college.

    This is a graph Nate Silver once compiled of the chances this would happen in the real electorate:

    White Female Vote Nate Silver

    According to the analysis, a four-point margin in the popular vote translates into a one percent chance of losing the electoral college. Notice how the graph does not even go beyond a seven-point popular victory.

    So how does Mr. Obama lose so badly amongst white females yet still become president?

    Here is the answer:

    The White Female Vote in 2008

    As it turns out, white female supporters of Mr. McCain are distributed very inefficiently. They are packed in states the Republican is already winning, especially in the racially polarized Deep South – where Mr. McCain does so well it is quite amazing and sad.

    The Democratic white female vote, while not as numerous, is far more efficiently placed. Democrats win white females where it matters – in thin but strategically located margins in enough states to win the electoral college.

    This fact can be illustrated visually:

    Photobucket

    The map above constitutes the 2008 white female vote, except this time  differentiated by margin of victory. Except in a few parts of New England, Democrats never win white females by margins greater than 20%.

    Finally, this analysis also illustrates the continuing racial divide confronting the United States. More than a century after slavery and fifty years after Civil Rights, in too many parts of the country one can tell far too much – about voting habits or other behavior – just by looking at skin color.

    P.S. For those interested, here is a full of table of the white female vote in 2008, by each state’s exit polling.

    The White Female Vote in 2008

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/3 (Afternoon Edition)

    CO-Sen: Now it’s Michael Bennet’s turn to dip into his personal funds to pay for the closing days of the Democratic Senate primary. After Andrew Romanoff posted a lead in the most recent poll of the primary (and sold his house to finance his last push), now Bennet’s fronting himself $300K. Here’s some good news, though, if Romanoff does succeed in pulling off the upset: he’s reversed course on his previous refusals of DSCC help (seemingly aware of the difficulty of winning without it, with him having burned through all his money on the primary). Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the fence, John McCain is providing some good news! for Jane Norton. He’ll be stumping on her behalf soon, and also sent around a fundraising e-mail, asking for another $200K for Norton and attacking Ken Buck’s past prosecutorial misconduct. (Buck responded by saying that McCain and “his lobbyist friends” were “greasing the power brokers” for Norton. “Greasing the power brokers?” I’m not even sure what that means, and I don’t know if I want to.)

    PA-Sen: Diarist cilerder86 does some digging into Joe Sestak’s Act Blue contributions, and finds that his fundraising isn’t letting up at all. In fact, based on Act Blue data (which seems to have a stable relationship with his overall fundraising), he extrapolates Sestak having raised at least $1.1 million in July, and on track to raise at least $3 million this quarter.

    CO-Gov: It looks like John Hickenlooper had the right idea emptying his coffers to reserve cheap ad space and hope they’d get refilled quickly, because they did. Of course, it helps that he got a big assist from Scott McInnis’s well-timed implosion. Hickenlooper’s pre-primary report had $203K raised in the last two weeks of July, compared with $41K for McInnis and $20K for fellow GOPer Dan Maes.

    GA-Gov: With Barack Obama speaking in Atlanta, Dem nominee Roy Barnes managed to be found in a totally different part of the state, meeting in rural Monroe County with 28 county sheriffs who are supporting his candidacy at a previously-scheduled engagement. Barnes said, “I’d rather be with these folks, if you want to know the truth. I’m not running for governor of Washington D.C. I’m running for governor of Georgia.”

    HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann is the money leader in the Hawaii governor’s race. He raised $822K in the first half of the year, and is sitting on $2 million CoH. Democratic primary rival Neil Abercrombie raised $712K in that period, but spent considerably, leaving him with only $469K CoH. Republican Duke Aiona raised $374K in the first half, and has $719K CoH.

    MI-Gov: There’s word of one more poll out in Michigan of the Dem gubernatorial primary. Details are, well, sketchy; all I can tell you is that it’s from a firm I’ve never heard of, Foster McCollum White & Associates, and I have no idea whether it’s a public poll or an internal from Virg Bernero or an ally. At any rate, it’s more evidence for a late Bernero surge, giving him a 50-22 lead over Andy Dillon.

    MA-10: With most of the attention having fallen on the flawed Republican candidates in this open seat race, it’s easy to forget there’s still a competitive Democratic primary between two well-established fixtures here too. State Sen. Robert O’Leary has the lead in his own internal poll, conducted by Gerstein-Agne. He leads Norfolk Co. DA William Keating 44-38, with a 57-38 lead among voters who know both candidates.

    NY-25: Dueling internals got rolled out in the 25th, which is pretty low on people’s priority lists in New York, but still needs to be watched carefully, given the climate of the day. Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle (one of the more obscure Mama Grizzlies) offered a poll from McLaughlin & Associates giving Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei a 46-37 lead (and closer numbers among those who’ve heard of both). Maffei responded with a Kiley & Co. poll giving him a 54-35 lead instead.

    Rasmussen:

    AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 34%, John McCain (R-inc) 53%

    AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 43%, J.D. Hayworth (R) 38%

    CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Scott McInnis (R) 25%, Tom Tancredo (I) 24%

    CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 42%, Dan Maes (R) 27%, Tom Tancredo (I) 24%

    NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 50%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%

    NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 48%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 34%

    NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 51%, David Malpass (R) 31%

    SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 20%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 62%