Swing State Project

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/5-7, likely voters, 7/6-8 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 43 (42)

Rob Portman (R): 39 (35)

Undecided: 18 (23)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 41 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 40 (36)

Undecided: 18 (24)

(MoE: ±4%)

Lee Fisher (D): 35 (22)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 26 (17)

Undecided: 39 (61)

(MoE: ±5%)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (44)

John Kasich: 40 (39)

Undecided: 15 (17)

(MoE: ±4%)

Things may finally be coming into focus in Ohio, according to R2K; while most polls of Ohio have been notable in terms of how few people were paying attention, it’s looking like people are starting to make up their minds with the May 4 primary now approaching. On the Senate side, the “no opinion”s for Lee Fisher (41/24 favorables), Jennifer Brunner (38/26), and Rob Portman (39/30) are all down into the 30s. Fisher leads Brunner in the Dem primary and also performs a tiny bit better against Portman, probably indicative of his huge financial edge — you can’t win an election with good intentions alone.

With Barack Obama (46/45) and Gov. Ted Strickland (47/41) seeming to be recovering a bit, and HCR tolerated by the public (43 support/37 repeal), Ohio (as also seen in the last Quinnipiac poll) may be starting to seem less-bad for the Dems right now than a number of other swing states. Strickland’s 45 is still ominous given that almost everyone has an opinion on him and he has little room to grow; both these races are poised to be very close, every-vote-counts affairs in November.

RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen | OH-Gov

Talk Business, a multi-format Arkansas newsmagazine, is conducting a whole bunch of polling on the state’s congressional primaries. They are using an outfit I’m not familiar with, with the memorable name of “The Political Firm.” They look to be a Republican pollster, but I don’t know if they have any skin in the game (or if Talk Business has any axe to grind).

In any event, Talk Business says all the polls were taken April 6-7th, were of registered voters (sort of an unusual choice, given that the primary is on May 18th), and are unweighted. TPF says it uses IVR (aka robopolls). Talk Business also promises two more rounds of polling before the primary.

AR-01 (D):

Tim Wooldridge: 18

David Cook: 11

Steve Bryles: 9

Chad Causey: 9

Ben Ponder: 5

Terry Green: 1

Undecided: 47

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-02 (D):

Joyce Elliott: 21

Robbie Wills: 16

Patrick Kennedy: 11

David Boling: 7

John Adams: 4

Undecided: 41

(MoE: ±4.6%)

AR-02 (R):

Tim Griffin: 20

Scott Wallace: 20

Undecided: 60

(MoE: ±3.6%)

AR-03 (R):

Steve Womack: 21

Cecile Bledsoe: 17

Gunner DeLay: 16

Mike Moore: 8

Bernie Skoch: 5

Steve Lowry: 4

Doug Matayo: 2

Kurt Maddox: 1

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±4%)

First it looked like he would, then like he wouldn’t… but now it’s a done deal. Roll Call:

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), who led a key group of anti-abortion-rights House Democrats that helped secure passage of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, told the Associated Press that he will announce his retirement later Friday.

Stupak said he wants to spend more time with his family and start a new career after 18 years in Congress, and he will announce his retirement Friday afternoon at Northern Michigan University, the AP reported.

Stupak’s full statement is available here. In the diaries, Menhen recently took a look at some possible Stupak successors — it’s well worth a read.

UPDATE: With Stupak’s retirement, we’re adding MI-01 to our list of competitive House races, at “Tossup.”

UPDATE: At his news conference this afternoon where he confirmed his retirement, Stupak stopped short of an explicit announcement, but he gave a shout-out to conservative Democratic state Rep. Mike Lahti, who’s been on most people’s short lists of possible replacements:

“A lot of people could do it,” Stupak told a reporter when asked if Democratic candidate could win the seat. “People like Mike Lahti would do a great job.”

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-01

FL-Sen: It’s official: Charlie Crist wants to lose. He definitively says he won’t run as an independent, “once and for all.” Given the way his statement is worded, though, he could still run as a Democrat.

KY-Sen: Is the Rand Paul money train slowing down? Trey Grayson raised $733K in Q1, topping Paul’s $630K. Given that Paul is the only Paulist running much of a campaign this cycle, I’m wondering why his freakazoid coterie hasn’t raised more for him. What’s more, Grayson is touting an internal poll from Jan van Lohuizen showing him with a narrow 39-37 primary lead – the first time we’ve seen a good poll for Grayson in some time. This is a case when I’d expect Paul to produce a dueling internal – if he has a decent one.

NV-Sen: I got awful tired of this kind of story after Mark Sanford managed not to resign despite multiple stories, week after week, of people “pressuring” him to quit. So the fact that a couple of Republican semi-bigs in NV want John Ensign to go don’t impress-a me much. You want to get someone to drop out, you need to threaten to support a credible primary challenger and cut off their fundraising. And hell, even that doesn’t always work. (Just look at Gov. Jim Gibbons!)

UT-Sen: Looks like Sen. Bob Bennett is ignoring his job in order to try and save it. Congress is on a recess right now and will reconvene next week, but Bennett is going to stay behind in Utah to campaign until the May 8th GOP caucus. While Bennett probably can’t get the 60% of convention votes he would need to secure the Republican nomination, he can try to block someone else from doing so, thus forcing a primary in June.

FL-Gov: Alex Sink has parted ways with her campaign manager, Paul Dunn, who came on board last year after managing Rep. Suzanne Kosmas’s 2008 campaign. “Longtime Sink confidante” Jim Cassady will take over the helm.

CA-36: Marcy Winograd, challenging Rep. Jane Harman in the primary, succeeded in denying Harman the “pre-endorsement” of the California Democratic Party by collecting 300 delegate signatures. Now the fight for the party’s endorsement goes to the floor of the state convention, which meets in L.A. next week. Winograd can still fight on to the June primary regardless of what happens with the endorsement, though.

GA-08: Some Paulist is dropping out of the GOP primary to spend more time with her gold bullion. Valerie Meyers says she won’t continue in the race to challenge Dem Rep. Jim Marshall. WMAZ (click the link) has a good primer on who else is still in the running.

HI-01: The Asian American Action Fund, a pro-Dem group, is slamming the DCCC for getting involved in the race, and particularly for siding with the white guy. The organization isn’t hesitating to point out that Hawaii’s 1st CD is 58% Asian and Pacific Islander. Meanwhile, Republican Charles Djou is – as James Hell envisaged – attacking the DCCC as a “mainland group” and criticizing its “outside interference.” If Djou’s framing takes hold, it’s possible that both Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case will get tainted as a result. That would be just great – and eminently predictable. (BTW, Hanabusa says she raised $450K in Q1.)

PA-04: Labor leader Jack Shea, who had been considering a write-in or independent challenge to Dem Rep. Jason Altmire on account of his vote against healthcare reform, has decided against a run.

PA-08: Zoiks! Republican Mike Fitzpatrick’s campaign tells PoliticsPA that they raised $500K in just two months. Fitzpatrick is trying to win his seat back from Rep. Patrick Murphy.

PA-12: A source tells the Hill that the NRCC plans to go up with some TV ads in the special election to fill Jack Murtha’s seat. Aaron Blake recites my favorite line, though: “There is no indication as to the size of the NRCC buy.” They’ll have to file an independent expenditure report soon enough, though (if this buy is for real).

TN-08: Somewhere in the Sonoran Desert, John McCain’s head just exploded. That’s because one Robert Kirkland just filed an independent expenditure report… on behalf of his brother, Ronald. What hath McCain-Feingold wrought? Now these two can’t even speak to one another at the family Fourth of July barbecue!

WV-01: Some fundraising numbers from Republican candidates in West Virginia. David McKinley says he’s raised $300K, while Sarah Minear has raised $272K (but a quarter mil of that was a self-loan). Mac Warner, a third candidate, hasn’t released any nums yet.

North Carolina: SEIU says it’s trying to form a new third party in NC, called North Carolina First, with the goal of running candidates in this fall’s elections. The Tarheel State is home to three Dems who voted “no” on healthcare reform: Heath Shuler, Mike McIntyre and Larry Kissell. SSP rates Shuler and Kissell as Likely Dem and McIntyre as Safe Dem, but a third-party challenge from the left could of course alter that calculus.

Data: A new site called Transparency Data is offering contributor data for the last twenty years… for federal and state races. Looks like a good one to bookmark.

Public Policy Polling (3/29-4/1, Pennsylvania voters, no trend lines):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 43

Pat Toomey (R): 46

Undecided: 11

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 42

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Quinnipiac (3/31-4/5, registered voters, 2/22-28 in parentheses) (primary numbers):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 41 (49)

Pat Toomey (R): 46 (42)

Undecided: 12 (8)

Joe Sestak (D): 34 (36)

Pat Toomey (R): 42 (39)

Undecided: 22 (24)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Arlen Specter (D): 53 (53)

Joe Sestak (D): 32 (29)

Undecided: 15 (14)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

PPP’s first look at the Pennsylvania Senate race finds a small lead for Pat Toomey; Quinnipiac’s newest entry pretty much confirms their numbers, despite their slightly different models (Quinnipiac polls registered voters) and despite showing a decent Arlen Specter lead last month. PPP’s sample breaks down very neatly: Specter leads by 71 among people who approve of Obama, while Toomey leads by 71 among people who disapprove. With Obama at 46/50 approval in Pennsylvania, that’s enough for a small Toomey lead. (The sample breaks down 49 voted for Obama, 48 for McCain, so their sort-of-LV model is a bit more conservative than the 2008 electorate.)

Public Policy Polling (3/29-4/1, Pennsylvania voters, no trend lines):

Dan Onorato (D): 32

Tom Corbett (R): 45

Undecided: 23

Jack Wagner (D): 30

Tom Corbett (R): 43

Undecided: 27

Joe Hoeffel(D): 31

Tom Corbett (R): 46

Undecided: 23

Anthony Williams (D): 27

Tom Corbett (R): 45

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Quinnipiac (3/31-4/5, registered voters, 2/22-28 in parentheses) (primary numbers):

Dan Onorato (D): 33 (32)

Tom Corbett (R): 45 (42)

Undecided: 21 (24)

Jack Wagner (D): 29 (30)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (42)

Undecided: 21 (26)

Joe Hoeffel(D): 28 (30)

Tom Corbett (R): 50 (41)

Undecided: 21 (27)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Dan Onorato (D): 20 (16)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 15 (10)

Jack Wagner (D): 13 (11)

Anthony Williams (D): 5 (2)

Undecided: 47 (59)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Tom Corbett (R): 58

Sam Rohrer (R): 7

Undecided: 35

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The Pennsylvania Governor’s race didn’t look good before, and now it looks even worse if you follow Quinnipiac’s trendlines (although the shift mirrors the shift in the Senate race in the same sample, indicating they got a much more conservative batch this month). PPP’s first look at the race isn’t quite as bad, but still confirms the general idea. As both PPP’s Tom Jensen and Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown point out in their writeups, things are likely to tighten up once the Democratic primary is over and the focus is on one candidate. Right now, the Dems have such a name rec deficit (against Tom Corbett, currently getting his name in the news constantly with the Bonusgate prosecutions) that the race is very much of a question mark at this point. With Corbett flirting with the 50% mark, though, the Dems may be getting into too deep a hole here to dig out once they’ve coalesced.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen | PA-Gov

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist, who’s been trying to sound more conservative for the last few months, seems to have changed tack again, trying to sound, well, independent… and that’s leaving many speculating that it’s a prelude to, say, an independent bid for the Senate. Crist is now portraying himself as standing up for “the people” against the GOP legislature, as he just vetoed a leadership fund bill and is poised to veto a controversial bill that would abolish teacher tenure and tie teacher pay to test scores. Polling has shown Crist in so-so shape in a three-way race, but it’s still a better bet than the GOP primary is for him at this point. Crist has until April 30 to decide whether to pull the trigger on an indie bid.

• LA-Sen: Bayou Buzz is saying that Republican incumbent David Vitter may still wind up with some conservative opposition in the Senate race, despite having scared off all the top-tier possible opponents. Former state Sen. (and 2006 Insurance Comm. loser) James Cain, who’s well-connected with the religious right, is “seriously considering” making the race. Cain says he’d prefer to run in the GOP primary, but is also considering running as a teabagger independent — which, if it splits the right-wing vote, could make things considerably more interesting for Dem Charlie Melancon.

• UT-Sen: Freshman GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz, whose name had briefly been associated with a possible primary challenge to Bob Bennett, still doesn’t think much of Bennett’s chances at the state convention, even though Bennett faces lower-caliber opposition than Chaffetz. Chaffetz drew some parallels to the same dynamic that helped him beat long-time Rep. Chris Cannon in 2008, and Cannon concurs, saying that the same movement has evolved since then.

• FL-Gov: I hinted at this yesterday, but these numbers are worth elaborating: Republican AG Bill McCollum raised $1.4 million last quarter, compared with $1.1 for Democratic CFO Alex Sink, suggesting that the same momentum change that we’ve seen in polls lately may be playing out in fundraising too. Sink still leads in receipts over the election cycle, and has the edge in cash on hand (she has $5 million).

• GA-Gov: One other gubernatorial race where the Democratic candidate is fundraising like mad is Georgia; ex-Gov. Roy Barnes raised over $900K this quarter and is sitting on $2.84 million CoH. That puts him well ahead of the top Republican, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, who reports $2 million CoH but only raised $75K during the last quarter. Republican ex-SoS Karen Handel raised $400K in Q1, but is sitting on nearly $600K.

• PA-Gov: Little-known state Sen. Anthony Williams raised some eyebrows with his big cash haul last quarter ($1.7 million for the quarter), but it’s a little less amazing now that it’s been revealed that much of that came from one huge contribution from a not-very-appealing source: $750K came from Democrats for Education Reform, who are a school-choice group. Another interesting co-inkee-dink: Williams’ campaign manager is, in his spare time, president of a Philly charter school.

• CT-05: Sam Caligiuri and Justin Bernier have gotten some wealthy company in the GOP primary in the 5th, from businessman Mark Greenberg. He says he’s pledging $1 million of his own money for the race (although that may come in installments, as he currently reports $403K in his account).

• FL-08: You may recall our amazement the other week to find that there’s a Whig running in FL-25… well, apparently they’re proliferating all over Florida, as now there’s one running in FL-08 as well. CQ talks briefly with Steve Gerritzen, who plans to go all William Henry Harrison on Alan Grayson’s ass.

• MI-01: Sounds like Bart Stupak was speaking mostly out of frustration when he said he was considering retirement a few days ago, or maybe he got the attention he was seeking in response. In today’s Detroit Free Press, he’s sounding much likelier to run, saying he’s “not ready to quit yet,” and that he has “every intention” of running again. He still has to have his biannual sitdown with his family about whether to do it or not, though.

• NH-02: Sorry, Charlie… you’re going to need more money than that. GOP Ex-Rep. Charlie Bass reported $155K, with $262K CoH, in his quest to reclaim his old seat. Dem Katrina Swett also reported yesterday, with $325K last quarter and over $1 million CoH (mostly leftover from her Senate bid that never happened). Bass also lags Ann McLane Kuster, who reported $285K last quarter.

• PA-07: State Rep. Bryan Lentz seemed to have a pretty easy path to the nomination in the 7th, and that path got even easier, with the dropout of environmental lawyer Gail Conner from the Dem field. That leaves only political consultant Teresa Touey in the way, and Lentz is challenging her signatures.

• SC-01: Carroll Campbell III got a big endorsement in his bid for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Rep. Henry Brown, from ex-Gov. David Beasley. That makes two ex-Govs backing him (as it would be pretty awkward if he didn’t have his dad’s endorsement). (UPDATE: Ooops, my apologies. The elder Campbell died several years ago.)

• CO-AG: This is a little down in the weeds, but it may be the first big test of whether joining the frivolous Republican AG lawsuit against the feds over HCR is a net positive or negative. Republican AG John Suthers just drew a top-tier challenge, from Democratic Boulder County DA Stan Garnett. Garnett was motivated to get in largely by Suthers’ participation in the lawsuit.

• NARAL: NARAL rolled out a bunch of endorsements for Democrats going on the offense in House races. Most interestingly, they waded into the LA-02 primary, endorsing state Rep. Cedric Richmond (who still faces fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta; the winner faces Joe Cao in November). They also supported Dan Seals (IL-10), Paula Brooks (OH-12), Suzan DelBene (WA-08), and Steve Pougnet (CA-45).

• Redistricting: If you like big charts with lots of population numbers and vote percentages (and if you’re at SSP, you probably do), here’s a post for you. Josh Goodman looks at California population changes on a county-by-county level and finds heaviest growth in Republican-leaning counties, but the growth is mostly Hispanic. Here’s the nice succinct conclusion, which I think applies everywhere and not just California:

The most rapid growth is in Republican places, but, in many cases, it’s among people who are likely to be Democratic voters. What that might mean is that this round of redistricting will produce short-term Republican gains, but, over the long haul, these Republican places won’t be Republican anymore.

• WATN?: Mahoney, Foley, and Spitzer, oh my! All three losers are in the news today as they publicly ruminate about comebacks. Ex-Rep. Tim Mahoney says people have been urging him to run for his old seat, which he lost to Republican Tom Rooney (and with Chris Craft out, hell, he may actually be their best option). Meanwhile, the guy Mahoney beat, Tom Mark Foley, has been gauging interest for his own comeback, running in 2011 for West Palm Beach mayor. Rounding out the trifecta of sex scandal survivors, Eliot Spitzer is still keeping his name in front of the press, saying that Kirsten Gillibrand presents an appealing target but sounding more plausibly interested in a run for state Comptroller.

• FL-Sen: Remember the good ol’ days of 2009, when Charlie Crist’s huge cash advantage would make him inevitable even if insurgent Marco Rubio somehow caught on with the teabagger set? Yeah, I’m having trouble remembering too. Rubio just brought in $3.6 million this quarter, the best of any candidate reporting so far. (Crist has yet to report, and even if he loses the quarter may yet lead in total cash.) Rubio may be getting himself into some trouble, though, with the all-important senior demographic in Florida, though, as his recent comments about changing Social Security (by, among others, raising the eligibility age) may not sit well with the state’s 3.5 million beneficiaries.

• IL-Sen: Looks like the biggest fundraising news today is coming from the GOP side of the aisle: Mark Kirk had a strong quarter, too, as he pulled in $2.2 million, leaving him with $3 million in the bank.

• NY-Sen: With all the state’s second-tier Republican talent interested in taking on Kirsten Gillibrand, where they might at least have some hope of an upset, no one’s signing up for the truly quixotic task of taking on Chuck Schumer in the other Senate race. That may change, as political consultant Jay Townsend is talking about stepping out from behind the curtain and trying his hand as a candidate. Townsend is currently working for Nan Hayworth’s campaign in NY-19.

• WI-Sen: A new Republican is stepping forward to run in the primary for the right to take on Russ Feingold… and, no, it’s not Tommy Thompson. Dick Leinenkugel, a former state Commerce secretary (an appointed position), plans to enter the race soon regardless of whether or not Thompson gets in. (Cillizza says, as far as Thompson goes, he’ll decide by early May and “most informed speculation seems to suggest he will take a pass.”) If Leinenkugel’s name is somehow evocative of hungover collegiate Sunday mornings, he’s from the family that owns the similarly-named brewery.

• GA-Gov: A sudden late entrant to the already-crowded Republican field in the Georgia governor’s race is bringing a lot of his own money with him. Ray Boyd is a wealthy real estate executive, and he kicked off his campaign by writing himself a $2 million check. He promises to reach out to the state’s teabaggers for support. The newest Insider Advantage poll of the GOP primary field doesn’t include Boyd; it finds Insurance Comm. John Oxendine with a solid lead at 26. Ex-Sos Karen Handel is at 18, ex-Rep. Nathan Deal is at 9, state Sen. Eric Johnson is at 5, and “Other” racks up 11, with 31% still undecided.

• MD-Gov: Ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich officially kicked off his campaign to get back his old job from Martin O’Malley in November. The DNC, however, is trying to tie Ehrlich today to his former #2 man, who’s gone on to rather overshadow Ehrlich for the last few news cycles: ex-LG and current RNC boss Michael Steele.

• MI-Gov: There’s another EPIC-MRA poll of the Michigan governor’s race, suggesting they’re going to be polling pretty frequently. This time, they find the likeliest matchup, Democratic state House speaker Andy Dillon vs. Rep. Peter Hoekstra, goes to Hoekstra, 40-33 (one month ago Hoekstra led 41-37). Mike Cox beats Dillon 43-34 and Rick Snyder beats Dillon 42-30, while Lansing mayor Virg Bernero loses to Hoekstra 42-29, to Cox 44-30, and to Snyder 42-26. Dillon leads the Dem primary 22-15 (with 11 for Alma Wheeler Smith), while Hoekstra leads the GOP primary at 27, with Cox at 21, Snyder at 15, Mike Bouchard at 13, and Tom George at 3.

• NV-Gov: Here’s some strategic thinking from the camp of Reid the Younger. The Committee to Protect Nevada Jobs (headed by Rory Reid’s consultant Dan Hart) is running ads bolstering incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons and attacking GOP primary rival Brian Sandoval (who’ll provide a much more difficult opponent for Reid than the thoroughly-trashed Gibbons).

• RI-Gov: The Association of Democratic City and Town Chairpersons — the umbrella group for the Dem party chairs of each of the state’s 39 municipalities — issued endorsements for a number of key races. Maybe there’s some tension between them and the state party, as they endorsed Treasurer Frank Caprio for the Governor’s race (instead of AG Patrick Lynch) and in RI-01, Providence mayor David Cicilline (instead of former state party chair William Lynch, brother of Patrick). They also endorsed Jim Langevin in RI-02, where he faces a primary challenge from a state Rep.

• WY-Gov: Democrats in Wyoming seem to have moved somewhere back behind square one in their search for a gubernatorial candidate. Their seeming best bet in the wake of Gov. Dave Freudenthal’s decision not to go for re-election, state Sen. Mike Massie, has decided to run for state superintendent of public instruction instead, where he’ll face incumbent GOPer Jim McBride.

• DE-AL: The NRCC has to be happy to get something of an upgrade in the open seat race in Delaware, shaping up to be their likeliest loss in the House. Michelle Rollins, a wealthy philanthropist, has confirmed that she’ll run. She hasn’t run for office before, but the DCCC already started attacking her several weeks ago, indicating they take her (or at least her wallet) more seriously than the Some Dudes already running. Former Lt. Gov. John Carney is the Democratic candidate, and has had a long head-start on the race.

• MA-09: Progressives looking for a primary challenge to Stephen Lynch (in the wake of his “no” vote on HCR) will have to look somewhere other than Needham town meeting member Harmony Wu; she announced via Facebook that she won’t be running.

• MI-01: Seems like Rep. Bart Stupak got his feelings hurt after taking a serious pounding from the left, from the right, and from pretty much all points in between during his last-minute obstruction of the health care reform passage. He’s saying that, although he has the signatures prepared for another run, he’s not ruling out retirement this year. Assuming he runs again, he faces a primary from the pro-choice left as well as a general election challenge from angry teabaggers on his right. If he does retire, Menhen is already on top of it in the diaries, listing some potential replacement candidates.

• NY-23: Paul Maroun, a Franklin County Legislator who got passed over by local GOP heads in favor of Dede Scozzafava in the special election in the 23rd, had been planning to run in the primary this year, but just decided against it. That leaves only two remaining contenders, Doug Hoffman (who ran on the Conservative Party line last year and is still doing his part to cheese off the local GOP), and self-funding investor Matt Doheny.

• PA-15: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan keeps on being one of the Dems’ few bright lights among its challengers this cycle, pulling in $320K this quarter, with $825K CoH. For more numbers, Reid Wilson’s out with today’s fundraising wrapup at the Hotline, with other numbers worth checking out including everybody in PA-Gov and FL-Gov.

• DNC: Michael Steele rolled out the RNC’s gaudy committee fundraising numbers early as a means of distracting the media from, well, everything else that’s happening at the RNC. Unfortunately, that kind of backfired, as the DNC put out numbers that topped the RNC’s already-high numbers. The DNC pulled in more than $13 million in March (compared to $11 million for the RNC), showing (via the HCR victory) that nothing succeeds like success.

• RNC: Speaking of the RNC’s numbers, here’s an interesting accounting trick that’s just come to light: the RNC had a deal going with the Michigan GOP to give money back and forth to each other, in order to inflate the RNC’s fundraising numbers. Not really the day that Michael Steele would have chosen for this news to come out.

This week we’re taking an in-depth, multi-part look at the 1994 election, as a means of divining what the 2010 election may hold for us in the House. To do so, we’re looking at some of the myths that seem to have taken hold regarding 1994; yesterday, for instance, we addressed the idea that 1994 was full of unpredictable, arbitrary wipeouts — which it wasn’t (our House Vulnerability Index did a spot-on job of predicting likelihood of losing compared with other Democrats).

Today, we’re looking at a couple more myths. They’re all interrelated — open seats and freshman status weigh heavily on the House Vulnerability Index — but it lets us slice and dice the data some new ways:

Myth 2) The losses in the 1994 election were disproportionately in the South, as historically Democratic districts that had started going Republican at the presidential level finally flipped downballot too.

No, not true. There’s plenty of reason to think this was the case (as I did until I started doing this research), as the 1992 round of redistricting rejiggered a number of districts in a way that was potentially harmful to moderate white Democrats elected by a coalition of African-Americans and working-class whites. With the creation of odd-shaped VRA-districts in a number of states, starting in 1992, moderate Democrats found themselves with the choice of either primaries against African-Americans in VRA districts, or against Republicans in much more conservative suburban/rural districts.

However, it turns out most of the impact from this occurred immediately in 1992, not 1994. For instance, the two Birmingham-area districts, which supported moderate Dems Claude Harris and Ben Erdreich, got turned into the mostly-white 6th and mostly-black 7th, which thus in 1992 turned into liberal Dem Earl Hilliard and conservative GOPer Spencer Bachus. Similarly, in 1992, long-time Democratic Rep. Walter Jones Sr. retired when he found himself in a now black-majority NC-01; his son, Walter Jones Jr., lost the Dem primary to Eva Clayton. In fact, this gave rise to perhaps the only Dem loss in 1994 that seems directly related to the VRA gerrymander: Rep. Martin Lancaster survived the 1992 election reasonably well despite having lost many of NC-03’s African-American voters to next-door NC-01, but in 1994 faced off against the younger Jones, now a Republican (and whose dad had represented many of NC-03’s voters prior to the redistricting), and lost.

It’s possible that Stephen Neal in NC-05, who got a nastier district in 1992 after having the black parts of Winston-Salem moved into the newly-formed NC-12 and then won by only 7% in 1992, may have felt compelled to hit the exits in 1994 primarily because he didn’t relish the task of trying to hold the district. At R+4 at the time, though, that wasn’t a particularly bad district. Norm Sisisky’s VA-04 also seems to have gotten worse post-1992 because of the gerrymandering of VA-03, but he still survived 1994 unscathed and held that district until his 2001 death. (If you can think of any other examples, please discuss in the comments. For instance, the creation of GA-11 or FL-03 may have had some consequences I’m not thinking of.)

The South (as defined by the US Census with one exception — I’m treating Maryland and Delaware as Northeast) did lose more Democratic seats than any other region of the country, that much is true. But that’s mostly because there were more Democratic seats in the South than any other region of the country; in terms of the overall win/loss percentage, the Democrats actually fared slightly better in the South than in the Midwest or West. In addition, much of what happened in the South was because of open seats; there were certainly more open seats in the South, while the South’s freshmen and veterans tended to fare better than those in the Midwest and West. There may be something of a chicken and egg effect here — old-timer Reps. in the South may have sensed trouble a-brewin’ and gotten out of the way, meaning that the inevitable losses took the form of open seats instead of defeated veterans — but, as we saw yesterday, open seats are the hardest to defend and the mass retirements (15 in the South) seemed to compound the disaster.

The one region where the Democrats performed notably better than the norm was the Northeast (their casualty rate in defensive races was only 11%, compared with 22% overall). That’s largely because there are so many safely-blue districts in the major cities of the Northeast; there were fewer suburban or rural seats there, which were the types that the GOP picked up in 1994. (The Dems faring comparatively well in 1994 in the Northeast helped pave the wave for their near-total dominance there now, as they gradually picked up suburban districts that leaned blue at the presidential level over the following decade.)

Here’s the list of who goes where. Open seats, for our purposes, includes races where the incumbent was knocked off in a primary. (And I’m not listing veterans who won, in the interest of space.)

South open seats won: TX-18 (D+22, ex-Washington), TX-10 (D+8, ex-Pickle), KY-03 (D+3, ex-Mazzoli), TX-25 (D+3, ex-Andrews)

South open seats lost: OK-02 (D+3, ex-Synar), TN-04 (R+2, ex-Cooper), NC-05 (R+4, ex-Neal), TN-03 (R+5, ex-Lloyd), OK-04 (R+7, ex-McCurdy), NC-02 (R+7, ex-Valentine), MS-01 (R+7, ex-Whitten), GA-08 (R+8, ex-Rowland), SC-03 (R+13, ex-Derrick), FL-15 (R+14, ex-Bacchus), FL-01 (R+20, ex-Hutto)

South freshmen won: FL-17 (D+25, Meek), AL-07 (D+21, Hilliard), LA-04 (D+19, Fields), TX-30 (D+19, Johnson), NC-12 (D+18, Watt), VA-03 (D+18, Scott), GA-11 (D+17, McKinney), FL-23 (D+16, Hastings), NC-01 (D+15, Clayton), SC-06 (D+14, Clyburn), GA-02 (D+12, Bishop), TX-28 (D+11, Tejeda), TX-29 (D+11, Green), FL-03 (D+10, Brown), MS-02 (D+9, Thompson), AR-01 (D+7, Lambert), FL-20 (D+3, Deutsch), FL-05 (R+1, Thurman), GA-09 (R+14, Deal)

South freshmen lost: KY-01 (D+0, Barlow), VA-11 (R+5, Byrne), GA-10 (R+10, Johnson)

South veterans lost: TX-09 (D+5, Brooks), NC-04 (D+1, Price), TX-13 (R+5, Sarpalius), NC-03 (R+8, Lancaster), GA-07 (R+11, Darden)

Midwest open seats won: MO-05 (D+13, ex-Wheat), MI-13 (D+4, ex-Ford)

Midwest open seats lost: OH-18 (D+2, ex-Applegate), MN-01 (D+1, ex-Penny), IL-11 (R+1, ex-Sangmeister), MI-08 (R+1, ex-Carr), KS-02 (R+2, ex-Slattery), IN-02 (R+8, ex-Sharp)

Midwest freshmen won: IL-01 (D+34, Rush), IL-02 (D+32, Reynolds), IL-04 (D+19, Gutierrez), WI-05 (D+13, Barrett), MI-05 (D+5, Barcia), MO-06 (D+3, Danner), MI-01 (D+0, Stupak), MN-02 (R+0, Minge), OH-13 (R+1, Brown), ND-AL (R+7, Pomeroy)

Midwest freshmen lost: WI-01 (D+3, Barca), OH-19 (R+0, Fingerhut), OH-01 (R+2, Mann), OH-06 (R+4, Strickland)

Midwest veterans lost: IL-05 (D+5, Rostenkowski), IA-04 (D+4, Smith), IN-08 (R+2, McCloskey), KS-04 (R+6, Glickman), NE-02 (R+8, Hoagland), IN-04 (R+13, Long)

West open seats won: CA-16 (D+12, ex-Edwards)

West open seats lost: OR-05 (D+2, ex-Kopetski), WA-02 (D+2, ex-Swift), AZ-01 (R+9, ex-Coppersmith)

West freshmen won: CA-37 (D+29, Tucker), CA-30 (D+18, Becerra), CA-33 (D+18, Roybal-Allard), CA-06 (D+15, Woolsey), CA-14 (D+11, Eshoo), CA-17 (D+11, Farr), AZ-02 (D+11, Pastor), CA-50 (D+7, Filner), OR-01 (D+4, Furse), CA-36 (R+3, Harman)

West freshmen lost: CA-01 (D+7, Hamburg), WA-09 (D+3, Kreidler), WA-01 (D+2, Cantwell), CA-49 (D+1, Schenk), AZ-06 (R+4, English), WA-04 (R+7, Inslee), UT-02 (R+8, Shepherd)

West veterans lost: WA-03 (D+4, Unsoeld), NV-01 (D+1, Bilbray), WA-05 (D+1, Foley), CA-19 (R+4, Lehman), ID-01 (R+9, LaRocco)

Northeast open seats won: PA-02 (D+26, ex-Blackwell), PA-20 (D+11, ex-Murphy)

Northeast open seats lost: ME-01 (R+0, ex-Andrews), NJ-02 (R+4, ex-Hughes)

Northeast freshmen won: NY-08 (D+28, Nadler), MD-04 (D+24, Wynn), NY-12 (D+22, Velazquez), NY-14 (D+20, Maloney), MA-01 (D+10, Olver), PA-04 (D+10, Klink), NJ-13 (D+7, Menendez), MA-05 (D+2, Meehan), NY-26 (D+2, Hinchey), PA-15 (R+1, McHale), PA-06 (R+7, Holden)

Northeast freshmen lost: NJ-08 (R+1, Klein), PA-13 (R+4, Margolies-Mezvinsky)

Northeast veterans lost: NH-02 (R+5, Swett), NY-01 (R+6, Hochbrueckner)

This is just brutal.

Public Policy Polling (4/1-5, Illinois voters, no trend lines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 33

Bill Brady (R): 43

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4%)

The scariest number, though, is this one: Pat Quinn’s job approval rating is 25-53. Those are some true toilet bowl numbers. It’d be an amazing feat for an incumbent, even in a blue-leaning state like Illinois, to survive in the face of such discontent. Indeed, PPP has even gone so far as to coin “The Corzine Line“, pointing out that Jon Corzine’s -23% job approval ended up giving him a defeat by a 4% spread in last year’s New Jersey gubernatorial election.

I know that some observers believed that Quinn got an easy ride with the primary win of the sharply conservative Brady. And, yes, Quinn’s lucky that he’s not dealing with the Illinois equivalent of Chris Christie, but it’ll still be pretty hard for him to gin up enthusiasm among his own base — especially with the extremely underwhelming Alexi Giannoulias sharing space on the ballot as the party’s nominee for U.S. Senate. Brady is already cleaving off 19% of the Democratic vote, and a further 28% is undecided. Quinn may be able to turn off those Democratic voters from Brady with blistering attack ads, but at this point I just have to wonder if those same voters that Quinn needs would just as easily decide to stay home.

Since I am currently on my spring break from school I thought that I’d play around with Dave’s Redistricting App in order to draw what I’d like NJ to have as a congressional map come redistricting. Since Jersey is expected to lose a congressional representative my main goal was to get rid of Scott Garrett’s (R) seat in the 5th district, considering he’s one of my least favorite members of congress. Other goals of mine were to make sure cities and counties were not separated as much as possible, make sure Adler’s (D) 3rd district makes him a safer incumbent (I predict he will win re-election in 2010), and ultimately make the map as realistic as possible. Take a look for yourself and let me know what you think.      

District 1: Rob Andrews (D)

As you can see I pretty much left the 1st district the same and only made minimal changes. My changes included moving the district out of Burlington County and further into Gloucester. This new district voted for Obama with ~64% and has a PVI of ~D+11 (from D+12). Andrews should win re-election easily as he is currently doing so.    

District 2: Frank LoBiondo (R)

Again another district with only minor changes. I moved the second out of Camden, Gloucester,and Burlington Counties and into southern Ocean county. Obama won this new district with ~53% and has a PVI of D+0 (from D+1). This district should be competitive in a good year and a top recruit (Jeff VanDrew comes to mind).  

District 3: John Adler (D)

This is the first district that I put some major changes to. First I kicked the 3rd out of conservative stronghold Ocean county and moved the district to completly cover Burlington county and into Mercer county where it covers about 60% of Trenton. Obama won 60% of this district with a PVI of D+7 (from R+1). This district will be competitive in 2010 but if Alder pulls it off (which I expect) then he will have this safer district to represent.  

District 4: Chris Smith (R)

This is another district where I only made minor changes. I was able to move the 4th district completely out of Mercer and Burlington counties and settle it into both upper Ocean and lower Monmouth counties. This is the first district so far that McCain won with ~57% and has a PVI of R+11 (from R+6). Republicans will win this seat easily and should be considered a safe seat.  

District 5(Former 12): Rush Holt (D)

This is the first district that I drew that is a textbook example of a gerrymandered district (the old district was also). I moved this new Y-shaped district completely out of Hunterdon and Somerset counties and alittle of out Mercer, Monmouth, and Middlesex counties. To make up for these loses I extended the district into Union county where Lance used to represent. This new district voted for Obama with 66% and has a PVI of D+13 (from D+5). This is a safe seat where Holt and future Democratic congress members should win without a major fight.  

District 6: Frank Pallone (D)

As anther seriously gerrymandered district (which was already so) I was able to move the 6th district out of some parts of Monmouth and Middlesex counties and into Union county where it now covers some parts where Lance’s district used to represent. The new district voted for Obama 56% and has a PVI of about D+3 (from D+8). The district is less safe than it used to be but Democrats should still be able to win it fairly easily.

District 7: Leonard Lance (R) Vs. Scott Garrett (R)

When I first tried to redraw the 7th district I tried making it into a Dem friendly district so to make the GOP lose 2 seats instead of 1 in Jersey. But the only way I could have make this happen was to turn is district into one of the worst cases of gerrymandering possible. I decided against this (based on both particle reasons and my dislike of insane gerrymandering) and instead make a super conservative district. This district combines the western portions of both former 5th and 7th districts and includes Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, and Somerset counties completely and a small portion of Union county. This new district gave McCain a 58% victory and has a PVI of R+12. If this district is drawn there is a large possibility of a GOP primary fight between incumbents Leonard Lance and Scott Garrett where I would expect Lance to win since he would have represented most of the new district. A Lance victory would rid Jersey of the most disliked (I say this generously to Garrett) congressman by Jersey Dems.        

District 8: Bill Pascrell (D)

Now comes time for the district where I currently live. I withdrew the district a tad bit away from Essex County (only a tad) and make it not only go further into suburban Northern Passaic County but also into western Bergan county. Obama won this new district with 60% and has a PVI of D+7 (from D+10). This is a safe blue district and Bill Pascrell (love this guy) will represent this district for as long as he wants (considering he wins suburban towns that votes Republican by over 20 points).

District 9: Steve Rothman (D)

Rothman’s district is pretty much the same with minor changes of moving the district a tad bit out of Jersey City and out of Passaic County (Hawthorne) and into Bergan County. This district voted for Obama with 62% and has a PVI of about D+9 (the same as before).

District 10: Donald Payne (D)

With Payne’s district I was able to move it out of Hudson county completely (allowing Jersey City to be split into only 2 districts instead of 3) and moved it to almost completely cover Essex county. While the district is no longer a vastly Black majority district it still remains a large polarity of the pop. Obama won the district with 78% and has a PVI of D+25 (from D+33).

District 11: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) vs. Scott Garrett (R)

Now comes the 3rd safest GOP district in the state and probably the most wealthy in Jersey.m The new district has been moved out of Essex, Somerset, and Sussex county competently and put into northern Passaic county and into northern Bergan county. This weirdly shaped gerrymandered district covers the eastern part of the old 5th district and all of Morris county. This district may become a battleground for both Frelinghuysen and Garrett if both choose to run for re-election. I would expect Frelinghuysen to win considering most of the district lays in Morris where Frelinghuysen lives and currently represents and is quit popular. The district voted for McCain with 54% and has a PVI of R+8 (from R+7).

District 12: Albio Sires (D)

Now comes the last district left, the 12th. Only small changes were made such as moving the district further into Jersey City and out of Secaucus and Kearney. The district is 47% Latino and 30% white (down from 56%) making the district minority dominated. Obama won the district with 77% and has a PVI of D+24 (from D+21). This is a safe seat for Dems where a Latino should be expected to represent.

So now that you have seen what I wish to see as Jersey’s new congressional map tell me what you think.