Swing State Project

Public Policy Polling (1/4-5, likely voters):

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 50

Michael Fidele (R): 25

Undecided: 25

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 48

Tom Foley (R): 26

Undecided: 27

Ned Lamont (D): 40

Michael Fidele (R): 30

Undecided: 29

Ned Lamont (D): 40

Tom Foley (R): 29

Undecided: 30

Dan Malloy (D): 37

Michael Fidele (R): 26

Undecided: 36

Dan Malloy (D): 37

Tom Foley (R): 27

Undecided: 36

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I think you’d be forgiven if you’ve forgotten who all these players are, so let’s give you a scorecard:

Susan Bysiewicz: CT Secretary of State (1998-)

Dan Malloy: Mayor of Stamford (1995-)

Ned Lamont: Businessman, ’06 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate

Tom Foley: Businessman, U.S. Ambassador to Ireland (2006-2009)

Michael Fedele: State Representative (1992-2002), Lt. Governor (2007-)

Republicans are hampered by extremely low name recognition here, but even Bysiewicz has room to grow (45% are “not sure” whether or not they approve of her). The candidate who arouses the most opinions, one way or the other, is Ned Lamont — but his favorables are at 29-28, well below Bysiewicz’s 39-16 spread. Ned Lamont closed his ’06 campaign with some damaged favorables (29-36, with another 21% having “mixed” feelings, according to a Quinnipiac poll from late October of that year), so he’d have a bit of work to do in building a more appealing image for himself.

Still, though, it’s hard not to like these numbers.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Gov

• Redistricting contest: Attention all redistricting nerds! Our New York redistricting contest deadline is Sunday, midnight Eastern time, so get your maps done. Don’t forget that people need to email their .DRF.XML files to jeffmd at swingstateproject dot com.

• AR-Sen, MO-Sen: Here’s an interesting alliance between two prominent female Senate candidates, one perhaps our most vulnerable incumbent and the other our likeliest pickup. Blanche Lincoln and Robin Carnahan have formed a joint fundraising committee, the Missouri Arkansas Victory Fund.

• CT-Sen: I had almost forgotten about Merrick Alpert, a young entrepreneur who’d been trying to carve out some space for himself in the Democratic primary against Chris Dodd as the “clean” outsider (and had been polling in the low double digits in primary polls, by virtue of his non-Dodd-ness). With the departure of Dodd and his replacement with the squeaky-clean Richard Blumenthal, it looks like Alpert’s going to need to do some message retooling. At any rate, Alpert says he’s sticking around in the race no matter what.

• DE-Sen: A politician voting against something, and then take credit for its benefits after it passes anyway? Why, I’m sure that’s never happened before. Still, it’s not the kind of thing you might expect Rep. Mike Castle to do… but he’s doing it anyway, touting $5 million in aid to the Delaware state government that came from the stimulus package he voted against.

• FL-Sen: I’m not sure if Charlie Crist actually thinks this’ll work; it seems like a transparent-enough ploy that the teabaggers will see through it like Grandma’s underpants. At any rate, he’s spinning to the paranoid right as quickly as the newly-rabid John McCain, decrying “Obamacare secrecy” in HCR negotiations, and also engaging in a little revisionist history about his stance on abortion.

• MA-Sen: Everyone’s getting Twitter-pated about PPP’s early teasings of its poll of this race, which they say is “loseable” for the Democrats; the actual numbers should be out this weekend. Still, you’d think that if there were an actual fire going on here, you’d see the national committees getting involved, and they aren’t (yet)… although the RNC has been sending around an e-mail asking for money on state Sen. Scott Brown’s behalf. Meanwhile, Martha Coakley has a big fundraiser scheduled for next Tuesday in DC (with all the state’s Congressional delegation and other moneybags luminaries like the Podestas) — although, given how gigantic a cash advantage she already has for blanketing the airwaves, it seems like that day might be better spent actually working on the ground than heading to Washington.

• ND-Sen: It turns out R2K had a perfectly good poll of North Dakota in the field on Tuesday, which got spoiled when Byron Dorgan suddenly retired. Still, it sheds some light on Dorgan’s retirement decision, as the final result is Hoeven 54, Dorgan 37 (which may be skewed toward Hoeven because they kept asking polling after Dorgan’s announcement, but Dorgan was still losing before the announcement too). That’s despite Dorgan’s sky-high approvals of 63%… just what happens when the state’s natural lean is against you, and someone even more popular than you comes along (just ask Lincoln Chafee). Remember that R2K found a 57-35 lead for Dorgan back in February over Hoeven; the flip was driven in large part by independents, who moved decisively from Dorgan to Hoeven over the year. One other Democratic name is getting floated as a potential Dorgan successor: former Dorgan aide and former state Senator Kristin Hedger.

• NY-Sen-B: Lots of New York’s power players are trying to talk Harold Ford Jr. down from the ledge regarding his potential primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, starting with Gillibrand’s mentor Charles Schumer. Rep. Jerry Nadler, who came around late to supporting Gillibrand but is firmly in her column now, also joined in the chorus telling Ford (who’s been huddling with advisors from Michael Bloomberg’s coterie) to back off. The campaign against Ford almost seems to write itself, starting with his pro-life proclamations and the fact that he’s been registered to vote in New York for only six weeks. That’s only the tip of the iceberg, though; Campaign Diaries has the definitive takedown of his record.

• NV-Sen: Some more intraparty sniping in Nevada, where Rep. Dean Heller is still complaining that John Ensign continues to tarnish the GOP’s brand in the state, which could hurt its chances in the Senate and Governor’s races in 2010. Heller said he wouldn’t call for Ensign to resign, “at least not on this show.”

• PA-Sen: Former Commonwealth Court judge Doris Smith-Ribner ended her longshot bid in the Democratic primary in the Senate race, having made no fundraising progress. She made so little impact I don’t see this changing much of anything, although maybe it helps Rep. Joe Sestak a bit via less splitting of the anti-Arlen Specter vote. She’s switching over to the Lt. Governor’s race, although she faces a longshot bid there too for the Dem nod against former Philadelphia controller Jonathan Saidel.

• UT-Sen: Maybe yesterday’s news that Jason Chaffetz wouldn’t challenge him was good news for Bob Bennett, but things aren’t getting any better for Team Bob. He’s now officially a target of the Club for Growth, unhappy with his occasionally moments of across-the-aisle comity. The CfG doesn’t have a preferred horse in the race, yet, as they seem torn between Mike Lee, Tim Bridgewater, and Cherilyn Eagar; for now, they’re calling all three of them “superior” to Bennett.

• NM-Gov: The New Mexico GOP has only a number of second-stringers running for Governor (with Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez maybe the most interesting), so they still seem to be casting about. They’ve gotten a nibble from a local attorney with no electoral experience but a prominent family name: Pete Domenici Jr.

• SD-Gov: One more Republican got into the field in the South Dakota gubernatorial race, bringing the total to five. State Sen. Gordon Howie seems to be laying claim to the teabaggers’ mantle in the race, via his presidency of the Tea Party-linked Citizens for Liberty. (I’d rather see him run for the House, where he could someday form the Guys Whose Names Seem To Be Out Of Order Caucus, along with Rodney Tom and Nickie Monica.)

• TX-Gov, TX-Sen: Kay Bailey Hutchison’s gubernatorial run has been giving John Cornyn nonstop heartburn since he took over the NRSC, and now he seems to be strategically leaking that he’d prefer that she drop her gubernatorial bid altogether (despite the primary being only two months away) to avoid the prospect of an expensive special election. Note to Cornyn: she’ll lose the gubernatorial primary anyway, and you’ll have her back shortly. While smart Texans (see White, Bill) seem to be backing away from the Senate-Race-that-probably-won’t-exist, one more Republican is floating his name for the hypothetical race. And it’s a guy I didn’t know even had any political inclinations: ESPN talking head Craig James.

• UT-Gov: Democrats got a good candidate to run in the 2010 gubernatorial special election: Salt Lake County mayor Peter Corroon confirmed that he’ll run. Corroon still faces a steep uphill fight, given the state’s crimson hue, but Dems have a better opening than usual, given the muddled Republican field in view of possible convention and/or primary challenges to appointed Gov. Gary Herbert.

• CA-19: Neighboring Representatives are taking sides in the Republican primary in the open seat race in the 19th. Kevin McCarthy, who leads NRCC recruitment efforts, is sticking with his initial endorsement of state Sen. Jeff Denham despite ex-Rep. Richard Pombo’s entry to the race (although he confesses that he “likes” Pombo too), while Devin Nunes has endorsed his ex-colleague Pombo. Denham also benefits from endorsements from many of the other state GOP House members (Dreier, Royce, Campbell, Issa, and Herger), although Duncan Hunter Jr. switched to “neutral” from Denham after Pombo’s entry.

• IN-09: It’s on… for the fifth freakin’ time. Ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel is launching another run against Democratic Rep. Baron Hill. (Hill has a 3-1 win record in their meetings so far.) The trouble is, unlike previous tries, Sodrel will have to get through a primary this time; attorney Todd Young has already raised substantial money and has many establishment endorsements (including some statewide officials). With Sodrel increasingly buddying up to the teabaggers, this looks like it has the potential to turn into one more skirmish in the establishment/movement battle.

• ND-AL: Republicans suddenly seem more interested in taking on the usually untouchable Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy, no doubt heartened by the knowledge that they’d be running downticket from John Hoeven in the Senate race and might benefit from coattails. State Rep. Rick Berg is sounding the loudest, although former Insurance Comm. Jim Poolman also is expressing interest. Public Service Commission member Kevin Cramer (who’s lost twice to Pomeroy before) was scoping out a run even before Byron Dorgan’s retirement.

• NH-02: With a crowd already formed in the NH-02 Democratic primary, Executive Councilor Debora Pignatelli declined to run. She didn’t endorse attorney Ann McLane Kuster, state Rep. John DeJoie, or Katrina Swett (who hasn’t formally declared yet), though.

• PA-04: There are rumors of a potential primary challenge from the left to Rep. Jason Altmire (despite the R+6 character of his suburban Pittsburgh district). Businesswoman Georgia Berner — who lost the 2006 primary to Altmire, who went on to defeat GOP Rep. Melissa Hart in the general — is dissatisfied with Altmire’s Blue Doggish record and is considering a rematch.

• VA-05: Some more delicious cat fud in the 5th, where state Sen. Robert Hurt, the Republican establishment’s pick in the race, has told the teabaggers to get bent. He’ll be skipping two debates sponsored by Tea Party organizations (although he cites the legislative calendar as the reasons for not showing up).

• Polltopia: Nate Silver has a very interesting deconstruction of Rasmussen, one of the best things I’ve seen written about them yet. He looks at why they keep finding right-wing insurgent candidates (Marco Rubio, Rand Paul) overperforming against Democratic candidates compared to Republican establishment rivals, contrary to other pollsters. What he sees is that between their exclusionary likely voter screen and their one-day polling periods (with no callbacks), they’re disproportionately reaching the most informed, motivated, and ideologically-driven voters.

America’s favorite pollster, Scott Rasmussen, has some nice news for Republicans (1/6, likely voters, 9/30 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 35 (40)

Trey Grayson (R): 45 (40)

Undecided: 12 (17)

Jack Conway (D): 38 (42)

Rand Paul (R): 46 (38)

Undecided: 12 (15)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (37)

Trey Grayson (R): 44 (44)

Undecided: 14

Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (38)

Rand Paul (R): 49 (42)

Undecided: 11 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That’s some pretty nasty stuff, and I’m sure the Paulistas are dancing on the clouds right now. Despite his surprising strength in the general election match-ups, I still hold that the best result for Democrats would be a Rand Paul nomination. That’s not to say that Paul could be easily beaten, but his freak-wing politics are more vulnerable upon closer examination. For instance: Is Rand Paul a 9/11 Truther? The answer isn’t exactly clear.

RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen

One of the big question marks left, as the House landscape is starting to solidify, is whether long-time Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher would have to face Republican state Del. Terry Kilgore in November. We have our answer today… no, he won’t.

Terry Kilgore (R), a member of Virginia’s House of Delegates, told The Washington Post Thursday that family considerations and his seniority in Richmond influenced his decision.

“I’m doing more for southwest Virginia in Richmond than I ever could in Congress,” said Kilgore, who was first elected in 1993 to the Republican-controlled state House.

Kilgore (the brother of the former AG and gubernatorial candidate) was the one Republican who seemed to have the capacity to turn this otherwise-pretty-safe race into a precarious contest. Getting him to run would have been a major recruiting score for the NRCC, as the “Fighting Ninth,” in coal country in southwestern Virginia, is a historically Democratic area that has moved sharply toward the Republicans at the presidential level, but one where the GOP hasn’t had the talent available to translate that shift downballot. (In fact, no Republican at all has filed yet to run here in 2010.) Without Kilgore around, Boucher can breathe much easier, and the DCCC has one less hole in the dike to plug with money.

RaceTracker Wiki: VA-09

Having flamed out of his gubernatorial bid in the face of AG Tom Corbett’s dominance of the Republican primary field, Jim Gerlach‘s going back to his day job:

Less than 24 hours after Rep. Jim Gerlach (Pa.) dropped his gubernatorial bid, the four-term Republican will announce Friday that he will run for re-election to the House instead.

According to a source familiar with Gerlach’s decision, the Congressman is expected to announce he will run for re-election at noon Friday. The same source also confirmed that Gerlach will almost immediately receive the backing of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

This certainly scrambles the PA-06 calculus, especially with the NRCC playing favorites. As we reported yesterday, state Rep. Curt Schroder isn’t getting out (at least not yet) from the Republican primary — and who knows, maybe he can make some hay out of Gerlach’s dithering. Look for some winnowing among the various lesser Republicans in the field, though, and possibly even rich guy Steven Welch, who may not want to throw good money after bad. (UPDATE: Welch sounds like he’s staying in, too.)

On the Dem side, Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi say they’re staying in, too… although this probably diminishes their chances in November (though between the district’s Democratic lean and a lot of ammunition to be had from Gerlach’s vacillations, Gerlach still has to be seen as the GOP’s second-most-vulnerable incumbent).

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-06

First days I was try to down the maps, but I have much trouble until the last change in the application what help me very much.

The philosophy for my model is so easy. If you need more democratic votes for make more democratic the districts, you must go where they are, you must go to New York City. That gives us a linear model what seems a rainbow for the redistricting.

My model try to find the limits, and I can draw a map with very much 59% Obama districts (D+7) but not all, I need down for some districts to 58% Obama (D+6). The first limit what stop me making more democratic New York districts is the limit of box in the Westchester County for can access with more districts to the area of New York City. The second limit would be the VRA conditions.

For make more compact the districts, but without lose the linear model, you only need down more districts to 58% Obama.

IMAGES:

DETAILS:

Only E Massa change his district number. He pass from 29th to 26th. All other democratis incumbents keep his number district.

P King and C Lee, the republican incumbents lose their districts.

Sometimes the areas where lives the incumbents are excessively big. I try to include all the areas in their districts, but for the 2nd, 8th, 14th and 15th districts I need to take some parts for other districts. Knowing exactly where live the incumbents would not be difficult to leave they in their districts.

I don’t include McCain results because i can not see the end of the line of results. The line get cut without pass to a second line.

District 01:

– Incumbent: T Bishop

– Dark blue in Long Island.

– Population: 706,022 with deviation of +5,689

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 02:

– Incumbent: S Israel

– Dark green in Long Island, from Nassau until Suffolk.

– Population: 706,389 with deviation of +6,056

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 03:

– Incumbent: vacant

– Purple in western New York, linear district from Chautauqua until Manhattan.

– Population: 698,741 with deviation of -1,592

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 62%; Bl 7%; Hi 27%; As 2%.

District 04:

– Incumbent: C McCarthy and maybe P King (R)

– Red in Long Island, linear district from Queens until Suffolk.

– Population: 707,202 with deviation of +6,887

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 54%; Bl 15%; Hi 15%; As 9%.

District 05:

– Incumbent: G Ackerman

– Dark yellow in Long Island, from Queens until Nassau.

– Population: 704,967 with deviation of +4,634

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 52%; Bl 7%; Hi 14%; As 24%.

District 06:

– Incumbent: G Meeks

– Dark greenish blue in Long Island, from Brooklin until Nassau.

– Population: 694,093 with deviation of -6,240

– 2008 elections: 79% Obama D+27.

– Racially: Wh 32%; Bl 50%; Hi 10%; As 5%. VRA district

District 07:

– Incumbent: J Crowley

– Gray in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.

– Population: 696,707 with deviation of -3,626

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 51; Bl 3%; Hi 24%; As 18%.

District 08:

– Incumbent: J Nadler

– Light purplish blue in western New York, linear district from Erie until Manhattan (Upper West Side).

– Population: 706,893 with deviation of +6,350

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 69%; Bl 11%; Hi 16%; As 2%.

District 09:

– Incumbent: A Weiner

– Light tuquoise in Long Island, from Queens until Suffolk.

– Population: 694,038 with deviation of -6,295

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 61%; Bl 10%; Hi 18%; As 8%.

District 10:

– Incumbent: E Towns

– Dark pink in New York City, Brooklin.

– Population: 693,891 with deviation of -6,442

– 2008 elections: 82% Obama D+30.

– Racially: Wh 26%; Bl 50%; Hi 13%; As 8%. VRA district

District 11:

– Incumbent: Y Clarke

– Light green in New York City, Brooklin.

– Population: 693,935 with deviation of -6,398

– 2008 elections: 85% Obama D+33.

– Racially: Wh 31%; Bl 50%; Hi 11%; As 4%. VRA district

District 12:

– Incumbent: N Velázquez

– Blue in New York City, from Brooklin until Queens.

– Population: 695,534 with deviation of -4,799

– 2008 elections: 84% Obama D+32.

– Racially: Wh 29%; Bl 11%; Hi 48%; As 8%. VRA district

District 13:

– Incumbent: M McMahon

– Salmon in New York City, from Staten Island until Manhattan by water link.

– Population: 706,942 with deviation of +6,609

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 8%; Hi 13%; As 11%.

District 14:

– Incumbent: C Maloney

– Dark brownish green in New York City and Long Island, from Manhattan until north Suffolk.

– Population: 706,712 with deviation of +6,379

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 81%; Bl 3%; Hi 7%; As 6%.

District 15:

– Incumbent: C Rangel

– Orange in New York City, from Manhattan until Queens.

– Population: 695,108 with deviation of -5,225

– 2008 elections: 86% Obama D+34.

– Racially: Wh 44%; Bl 14%; Hi 27%; As 12%. VRA district

District 16:

– Incumbent: J Serrano

– Green in New York City, Bronx.

– Population: 693,589 with deviation of -6,744

– 2008 elections: 95% Obama D+43.

– Racially: Wh 3%; Bl 32%; Hi 61%; As 1%. VRA district

District 17:

– Incumbent: E Engel

– Dark purplish blue in the south of western New York, linear district neighboring Pennsylvania, from Chautauqua until Manhattan (Upper West Side).

– Population: 706,897 with deviation of +6,564

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 5%; Hi 10%; As 3%.

District 18:

– Incumbent: N Lowey

– Light Yellow in northern New York, from Dutchess until Queens.

– Population: 695,784 with deviation of -4,549

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 6%; Hi 16%; As 6%.

District 19:

– Incumbent: J Hall

– Green in northern New York, from Saratoga and Washington until Putnam.

– Population: 693,403 with deviation of -6,930

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+6.

– Racially: Wh 68%; Bl 14%; Hi 12%; As 4%.

District 20:

– Incumbent: S Murphy

– Light pink in northern New York, from Jefferson until the Bronx.

– Population: 703,781 with deviation of +3,448

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 70%; Bl 19%; Hi 7%; As 2%.

District 21:

– Incumbent: P Tonko

– Dark red in northern New York, linear district from Oswego until the Bronx.

– Population: 706,364 with deviation of +6,031

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 67%; Bl 14%; Hi 13%; As 3%.

District 22:

– Incumbent: M Hinckey

– Brown in western New York, linear district from Erie until the Bronx.

– Population: 706,466 with deviation of +6,133

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 65%; Bl 9%; Hi 20%; As 3%.

District 23:

– Incumbent: W Owens

– Ligth turquoise in northern New York, from Syracuse until Albany.

– Population: 693,837 with deviation of -6,496

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 90%; Bl 5%; Hi 2%; As 1%.

District 24:

– Incumbent: M Arcuri

– Dark purple in western New York, linear district from Ontario until Manhattan.

– Population: 695,810 with deviation of -4,523

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 72%; Bl 16%; Hi 8%; As 2%.

District 25:

– Incumbent: D Maffei

– Pink in western New York, from Buffalo until Onondaga.

– Population: 693,428 with deviation of -6,905

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 87%; Bl 8%; Hi 2%; As 2%.

District 26:

– Incumbent: E Massa

– Dark gray in western New York, from Steuben until Rockland.

– Population: 700,655 with deviation of +322

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 80%; Bl 7%; Hi 7%; As 3%.

District 27:

– Incumbent: B Higgins and C Lee (R)

– Green in western New York, from Erie until Monroe.

– Population: 693,889 with deviation of -6,444

– 2008 elections: 58% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 78%; Bl 14%; Hi 4%; As 1%.

District 28:

– Incumbent: L Slaughter

– Light purple in western New York, Monroe.

– Population: 693,567 with deviation of -6,766

– 2008 elections: 59% Obama D+7.

– Racially: Wh 77%; Bl 13%; Hi 5%; As 2%.

They are four districts in 58% Obama. You can increase three of they until 59% Obama, but the fourth down until 55-56% Obama (D+3 or D+4) because can not access to the New York City area.

Well, sure republicans will hate this model, and maybe democrats smile. New York gives the chance of a good redistricting for democrats.

An omnibus of some of the early-bird fundraising numbers we’ve seen reported so far:

AR-02:

     Tim Griffin (R): >$250K raised

FL-08:

     Armando Gutierrez (R): $210K raised + $100K personal donation; $300K CoH

KY-Gov:

     Steve Beshear (D-inc): $542K raised; $784K CoH

NC-Sen:

     Cal Cunningham (D): $320K raised (since December)

ND-AL:

     Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): $360K raised; $1.4M CoH

NH-Sen:

     Bill Binnie (R): $225K raised + $1.26M loan

NH-02:

     Ann McLane Kuster (D): $206K raised; $550K CoH

NY-01:

     Randy Altschuler (R): $185K raised + $450K loan; $776K CoH

     George Demos (R): $300K raised; $275K CoH

PA-07:

     Pat Meehan (R): $580K raised

     Bryan Lentz (D): ~$300K raised; $450K CoH

TN-08:

     Roy Herron (D): >$425K raised + $250K loan; $675K CoH

     Steve Fincher (R): $320K raised

VA-05:

     Laurence Verga (R): $11K raised + $227K loans/personal donations, $218K CoH

VA-11:

     Keith Fimian (R): $500K CoH

WI-Gov:

     Tom Barrett (D): $750K raised; $1.5M CoH

Upstate New York has trended Democratic quickly over the past decade. Therefore I’m spreading Democratic support thin over Upstate to make only Democratic districts.

However Long Island has trended Republican at the presidential level since 2000. I’m keeping Peter King’s district Republican in order to keep the other Long Island districts safe Democratic. If Long Island becomes more Democratic then Peter King’s district becomes a tossup when he retires. If Long Island becomes more Republican then at least the Democrats on the Island remain safe.

I did not split a single municipality north of Westchester and Rockland Counties except for Buffalo.

I’m sorry the 11th and the 16th are almost the same color.



Please don’t read anything into the colors assigned to the 13th and 14th districts. Those are the colors that automatically get assigned to those numbers, nothing more.

1st District Tim Bishop (D)

Hamptons, Brookhaven

New 54%O 46%M Old 52%O 48%M

82% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian

I removed Smithtown and added some Hispanic parts of Islip to make it more Democratic.

2nd District Steve Israel (D)

Huntington, Babylon, Islip

New 56%O 44%M Old 56%O 43%M

73% White, 9% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian

These days the south shore of Suffolk County is less Republican then the north shore, so I removed the north shore and added more south shore. I hope I kept Steve Israel’s home in the district. The most Democratic parts of Huntington are still in the 2nd.

3rd District Peter King (R)

Oyster Bay, Glen Cove, Smithtown

New 48%O 52%M Old 47%O 52%M

88% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

I tried to find the right balance between making the 3rd possible for a Democrat to win when Peter King retires, while keeping the 1st and 2nd as safe as possible for the Democrats.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D)

most of Hempstead, some North Hempstead

New 58%O 42%M Old 58%O 41%M

63% White, 17% Black, 13% Hispanic, 5% Asian

This is the only Long Island district with a sizable minority population, almost enough for a black or Hispanic candidate to have a chance. The northern protrusion is so that the 5th district reaches Gary Ackerman’s home in Mineola. The eastern protrusions are to take either minority or extremely Republican parts out of the 3rd.

5th District Gary Ackerman (D)

Flushing, Floral Park, North Hempstead

New 62%O 37%M Old 63%O 36%M

51% White, 5% Black, 14% Hispanic, 27% Asian

The loss of a district Upstate can already be felt in the 5th district. It has more Queens and less Nassau than before. Pretty soon it will be possible to make an Asian majority district in Queens.

6th District Gregory Meeks (D)

Jamaica, Ozone Park, Far Rockaway

New 86%O 14%M Old 89%O 11%M

17% White, 50.2% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s still the black district in southern Queens. It expanded west to take some Republican territory from Anthony Weiner.

7th District Anthony Weiner (D) (Old 9th)

Brighton Beach, Sheepshead Bay, Ridgewood, Forest Hills

New 61%O 38%M Old 55%O 44%M

55% White, 7% Black, 21% Hispanic, 14% Asian

It still has the same 2 far-apart population centers. It loses its Hasidic Jews and gains more of Queens.

8th District Edolphus Towns (D) (Old 10th)

Williamsburg, Bedford Stuyvesant, East New York, Canarsie

New 94%O 6%M Old 91%O 9%M

8% White, 66% Black, 20% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Probably the blackest district in America. Yet it borders another black-majority district and is only block away from another black-majority district.

9th District Yvette Clarke (D) (Old 11th)

Park Slope, Crown Heights, Flatbush

New 91%O 9%M Old 91%O 9%M

27% White, 51% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

I removed the panhandle from the Towns district so it would be more compact. As a result the Clarke district barely has a black majority. But it’s good enough.

10th District Michael McMahon (D) (Old 13th)

Staten Island, southwest Brooklyn

New 51%O 48%M Old 49%O 51%M

68% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 9% Asian

The border between the 10th and 12th districts is the only ugly political gerrymander in this map. (The 11th is an ugly racial gerrymander.) The Brooklyn part of this district gave Obama 62% of the vote. Also keep in mind that a Staten Island Democrat has at least a 5 point advantage here over a presidential Democrat, so Michael McMahon should be safe.

11th District Nydia Velazquez (D) (Old 12th)

Sunset Park, Lower East Side, Chinatown, Bushwick, South Corona

New 85%O 14%M Old 86%O 13%M

14% White, 7% Black, 54% Hispanic, 22% Asian

The existing 12th is a Hispanic district, and it also seems to be an Asian district, so I added more of both groups, and extended it into north Queens.

12th District Jerrold Nadler (D) (Old 8th)

Upper West Side, west Midtown, Lower West Side, extremely Republican parts of Brooklyn

New 69%O 30%M Old 74%O 26%M

76% White, 3% Black, 9% Hispanic, 9% Asian

The extremely republican Hasidic parts of Brooklyn had to get buried somewhere. I could have buried them in the black districts but I decided it would be better for race relations to give them to a white Jewish Democrat. The Manhattan part of the district is almost completely unchanged.

13th District Carolyn Maloney (D) (Old 14th)

Upper East Side, east Midtown, Long Island City, Greenpoint

New 79%O 20%M Old 78%O 21%M

69% White, 4% Black, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian

I added Greenpoint (northern point of Brooklyn) because Greenpoint is turning into another rich gentrified neighborhood. Besides that, it’s mostly unchanged.

14th District Charles Rangel (D) (Old 15th)

Harlem, some Upper West Side

New 93%O 6%M Old 93%O 6%M

16% White, 31% Black, 48% Hispanic, 3% Asian

Everything north of 96th street on the east side and 90th(?) street on the west side. And also Rikers Island. I decided it’s more important to make the district geographically compact (Manhattan only) than to add more black population by trading precincts with a Bronx district.

15th District Jose Serrano (D) (Old 16th)

South Bronx

New 95.0%O 4.8%M Old 94.8%O 5.0%M

2% White, 31% Black, 63% Hispanic, 2% Asian

This has the distinction of being the most Democratic district in America. I did my best to keep it that way.

16th District Joseph Crowley (D) (Old 7th)

East Bronx, Astoria

New 84%O 16%M Old 79%O 20%M

24% White, 30% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% Asian

Renumbered 16th because it’s now a Bronx district not a Queens district (thus forcing me to renumber so many other districts). I hope it still includes Crowley’s home in Woodside, it’s hard to tell.

17th District Eliot Engel (D)

Riverdale, Mount Vernon, Ramapo

New 63%O 37%M Old 72%O 28%M

58% White, 17% Black, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It’s not as Democratic as before because it loses black parts of the Bronx and gains Republican parts of Orange County.  But it’s still safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D)

New Rochelle, White Plains, Mount Pleasant

New 61%O 39%M Old 62%O 38%M

71% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

The Westchester district didn’t change much.

19th District John Hall (D)

Peekskill, Middletown, Newburgh, Ploughkeepsie

New 53%O 46%M Old 51%O 48%M

78% White, 8% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian

It gets pushed further upstate. Fortunately gaining northern Orange County and Ploughkeepsie makes it more Democratic.

20th District Maurice Hinchey (D) Old 22nd

New Paltz, Woodstock, Hudson, Albany suburbs

New 55%O 44%M Old 59%O 39%M

89% White, 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district now includes several Hudson Valley counties instead of a finger into Ithaca.

21st District Paul Tonko (D)

Albany, Troy, Schenectady

New 56%O 42%M Old 58%O 40%M

87% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

It still has Tonko’s home in Montgomery County and it picks up Republican territory in Fulton, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties.

22nd District Scott Murphy (D) Old 20th vs Bill Owens (D) Old 23rd

Watertown, Plattsburgh, Saratoga Springs

New 53%O 46%M Old 20th 51%O 48%M, Old 23rd 52%O 47%M

93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

All of Democratic northern rural New York gets packed into 1 district. It’s only 53% now but expect it to continue trending Democratic into the future. I decapitated Herkimer for aesthetic reasons. Unfortunately Murphy and Owens can’t both be Congressman in 2013 but I’m sure they saw this coming when they ran.

23rd District Michael Arcuri (D) Old 24th

Utica, Ithaca, Binghamton

New 54%O 45%M Old 51%O 48%M

90% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Made safer by adding Ithaca and Binghamton and removing most of Oneida County.

24th District Dan Maffei (D) Old 25th

Syracuse, Rome, Oswego

New 55%O 45%M Old 56%O 43%M

88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

The Syracuse district buries extremely-Republican northern Oneida County. It shifted east because Western New York lost a lot of population and its districts are expanding.

25th District Eric Massa (D) Old 29th

Webster, Brighton, Corning

New 50%O 49%M Old 48%O 51%M

92% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This November Eric Massa will hopefully get reelected by a significant margin. This plan then makes his district more Democratic, so he will be able to keep getting reelected. The district includes most of Massa’s original district, and the rest is currently represented by Dan Maffei and Michael Arcuri. If this district becomes open then it’s a tossup, so I’m counting on Massa to keep running for reelection.

26th District Louise Slaughter (D) Old 28th

Rochester, Greece, Batavia

New 55%O 44%M Old 69%O 30%M

78% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian

No more earmuffs! This district includes the entire city of Rochester, its suburbs to the west, and 4 rural conservative counties. Louise Slaughter’s home isn’t in the district, and drawing her in would weaken the Massa district too much. But it’s still Slaughter’s district.

27th District Chris Lee (R) Old 26th

Buffalo, Amherst, Niagara Falls

New 55%O 43%M Old 46%O 52%M

87% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

There’s a fine line between increasing a city’s influence by putting it in more Congressional districts, and decreasing a city’s influence by spreading it too thin over too many districts. I hope I did the former, not the latter. Chris Lee, an unremarkable Republican, will now have to face reelection in a 55% Obama district.

28th District Brian Higgins (D) Old 27th

Buffalo, Lackawanna, Olean

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 44%M

84% White, 10% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Brian Higgins gains some more black parts of Buffalo, and also gains some rural conservative counties. This makes the district as Democratic as it was before, just bigger.

Hello all. I’m very excited to participate in my first contest here at SSP. Not only that, I’m extremely excited to deal with my home state, New York. For you, I’ve redistricted New York, 27-1. I’ve seen some entries that involve a 28-0 gerrymander, which would be hypothetically nice, but probably unfeasible. To strengthen all incumbents, I’ve given every Democrat a 55% or higher Obama district, which translates to at least a D+2 or D+3 PVI for each one.  Right now, several Democratic incumbents occupy Republican PVI districts (Arcuri, Massa, Murphy, Hall, and Owens). That will change under my plan. However, unlike previous entries, I have to ax one of the districts upstate to make sure that I have a 27-1 gerrymander, and, unfortunately for the new guys, Murphy’s old district is eliminated, forcing him to enter a primary with Bill Owens. I don’t really care who wins that one, though I recognize that Murphy is a very good fundraiser and probably would win. All VRA districts are kept in tact, with Velazquez’s becoming Hispanic majority (instead of plurality).  In the future, I foresee that there will be another Hispanic majority district, mostly based in Crowley’s present district. I also want to see a majority Asian district eventually, though I realize that many Asian communities in New York have different interests.

I know that there is a strategic advantage to sending in your map later so that nobody gets any ideas, but I think it’s in all of our best interests to build the best map as possible. If you haven’t made your map yet, feel free to use some of my ideas. If you have made your map, then post it!

Here’s a summary of what I did:

-Created 27 likely/safe Democratic seats

-Created one über safe Republican district to protect Massa, Arcuri, Owens/Murphy, and, to some extent, Hinchey and Maffei.

-Kept districts relatively compact, with only four New York City/suburban districts (there are only two right now, so not much of a difference)

-Kept all cities in one district if possible

-Obeyed the VRA

-Kept populations within the allocated margins

-Made every Democratic seat relatively easy to represent (no Binghamton to Buffalo drives for Massa)

There are 3,086 people that are unaccounted for. I just couldn’t find the missing precincts; I assume they’re in New York City, though, as the unaccounted voters voted for Obama by something like 90-10. I don’t think it makes much of a difference in the larger picture, though. Also, I’m trying to figure out a way to send it to jeffmd through e-mail, as my first two tries didn’t work.

One last thing: I connect a few New York City districts with bridges-and, in one case, a ferry. I will note that in my write-up. Please enjoy!

Clean Map:

With Counties:

Long Island:

District 1 – BLUE

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Islip, Brookhaven, Southampton)

Population: 669,859

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 49% Bush 49%

White: White: 77% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Bishop keeps his base in the Hamptons, while receives favorable territory in Brookhaven and Islip. These added points to his previous district-of which Obama only received about 51% of the vote-should keep Bishop safe.

District 2 – DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Nassau County

Population: 700,704

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 75% Black: 9% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: The newly minted Long Island district takes in much of Israel’s and Bishop’s old district in Eastern Suffolk. The district splits Huntington, which is Israel’s base, so Israel can elect to run in either the 2nd or the 3rd district.

District 3 – PURPLE

Incumbent:

Area: Part of Nassau County (Glen Cove)/Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Bronx County (The Bronx)

Population: 700,178

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 47% McCain 52%; Kerry 47% Bush 52%

White: 73% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 9% Other: 1%

Notes: This is where King is screwed. His base in Southern Nassau is split into three districts, the 3rd, the 4th, and the 5th. I had to add part of the Bronx to strengthen the district (and for population purposes). King would have to sweep the Nassau portions to win, and I don’t think he could. Granted, this district is less Democratic than the 4th and the 5th, but I think the Democratic lean ultimately propels a Democrat to victory. Israel could also run in the neighboring 2nd, as Huntington is split between the two districts.

As for the Bronx connection, the representative can take the Throgs Neck Bridge from Queens. Though the bridge doesn’t connect the Long Island parts to the Bronx part, it will make representing both sections very manageable.

District 4 – RED

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)/Peter King (R)

Area: Part of Nassau County (Long Beach)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,877

Obama: 57%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 41%; Kerry 55% Bush 41%

White: White: 64% Black: 15% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 10% Other: 3%

Notes: This district takes in most of King’s base, (and his home), but tethers it to Queens to make this district pretty safe for McCarthy. Also of note, I had to add some black-majority precincts to make McCarthy safe, so Meeks has to go Brooklyn to make sure his district is VRA. Also, here is a short arm in the middle of Nassau County to take McCarthy’s home in Mineola.

District 5 – YELLOW

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

Area: Part of Nassau County/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,542

Obama: 58%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 63% McCain 36%; Obama 63% McCain 36%

White: 61% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 18% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Takes in Nassau, Queens along with parts of King’s base. He should continue to do fine here.

District 6 – DARK GREENISH BLUE

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

Area: Queens County (Queens)/Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,692

Obama: 87%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 89% McCain 11%; Kerry 84% Bush 15%

White: 17% Black: 50% Native: 0% Asian: 9% Hispanic: 17% Other: 7%

Notes: Remains a VRA-protected district in Queens, but to help McCarthy, it is water-continuous to take in black-majority precincts in Brooklyn. Takes in some icky old Weiner precincts. Meeks can travel the Shore Parkway to go Brooklyn to his other constituents. Also has the most “Other” raced-people in the state (45,528). I have no idea what that means.

District 7 – GRAY

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,514

Obama: 80%

McCain: 20%

Old District: Obama 79% McCain 20%: Kerry 74% Bush 24%

White: 29% Black: 19% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 40% Other: 4%

Notes: I didn’t change much, but now the district is even more Hispanic. Crowley would win here, and I doubt he would get a primary. However, a Hispanic Bronx Democrat should win here after he retires. He can travel on Route 678.

District 8 – DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,149

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District: Obama 74% McCain 25%: Kerry 72% Bush 27%

White: 59% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 17% Hispanic: 14% Other: 3%

Notes: Nadler loses downtown, but retains his base on the Upper West Side. He also takes in heavily Republican areas of Brooklyn, but that area is superfluous as his Manhattan parts are ridiculously Democratic. I also gave him Chinatown.

District 9 – LIGHT TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,891

Obama: 61%

McCain: 38%

Old District: Obama 55% McCain 44%; Kerry 56% Bush 44%

White: 50% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 16% Hispanic: 22% Other: 5%

Notes: I had to shore up this district, even though Weiner would be fine otherwise. It’s just that Weiner will probably run for another office some day (especially mayor), so I wanted to make sure that a moderate (probably Jewish) Republican couldn’t win here. It’s pretty gerrymandered to be a slightly majority white district. Anyway, his base is here and Weiner should win by a large margin.

District 10 – DARK PINK

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,919

Obama: 85%

McCain: 15%

Old District: Obama 91% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 22% Black: 52% Native: 0% Asian: 5% Hispanic: 18% Other: 23%

Notes: Pretty much the same Brooklyn-based VRA-protected district, but it takes in icky some icky Brooklyn precincts to help Weiner.

District 11 – GREEN

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,196

Obama: 84%

McCain: 16%

Old District: Obama 90% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 25% Black: 54% Native: 0% Asian: 7% Hispanic: 11% Other: 4%

Notes: Same deal as District 10.

District 12 – MEDIUM BLUE

Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,735

Obama: 86%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 86% McCain 13%; Kerry 80% Bush 19%

White: 23% Black: 11% Native: 0% Asian: 11% Hispanic: 51% Other: 3%

Notes: A VRA-protected Hispanic district, Velazquez sheds Manhattan and takes in the Hispanic parts of Brooklyn and Queens. The district gets a somewhat big makeover to make it Hispanic-majority, but I’m sure there will be no complaints for anyone.

District 13 – TEAL

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

Area: All of Richmond County (Staten Island)/Part of New York County (Manhattan)

Population: 700,676

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District: Obama 49% McCain 51%; Kerry 45% Bush 55%

White: White: 71% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: My Staten Island-based district is now tethered to downtown Manhattan to make the district a safe Democratic district.

District 14 DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,854

Obama: 80%

McCain: 19%

Old District: Obama 78% McCain 21%; Kerry 74% Bush 25%

White: 64% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 18% Other: 3%

Notes: My hometown district, Maloney gains parts of Brooklyn to enable Velazquez to have a Hispanic-majority district. Goes all the way up to the limits of the Upper East Side on 96th Street.

District 15 – ORANGE

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,198

Obama: 91%

McCain: 8%

Old District: Obama 93% McCain 6%; Kerry 90% Bush 9%

White: 17% Black: 27% Native: 0% Asian: 6% Hispanic: 47% Other: 3%

Notes: Rangel’s district is plurality Hispanic (and almost majority Hispanic). I would bet he wouldn’t like this district, as he could be primaried by an ambitious Hispanic legislator who would target him on ethics issues. Otherwise, it loses all parts of the Upper West Side, which never really made sense for him.

District 16 – LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)

Population: 700,500

Obama: 95%

McCain: 5%

Old District: Obama 95% McCain 5%; Kerry 89% Bush 10%

White: 3% Black: 33% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 60% Other: 2%

Notes: The VRA-protected South Bronx district makes no substantive changes. This district would undoubtedly have the fewest white people in the country.

Suburbs:

District 17 – DARK BLUE

Incumbent:  Eliot Engel (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Yonkers)/Part of Rockland County/Part of Orange County

Population: 700,056

Obama: 60%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 72% McCain 28%; Kerry 67% Bush 33%

White: 61% Black: 17% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 16% Other: 3%

Notes: A kind of similar district to Engel’s current, the district takes in Mount Vernon, parts of Rockland, parts of Orange, and all of Yonkers. His home in the Bronx remains for a solid (but less diverse) Democratic district.

District 18 – LIGHT YELLOW

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Rye, New Rochelle, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Delaware County

Population: 699,983

Obama: 58%

McCain: 41%

Old District: Obama 62% McCain 38%; Kerry 58% Bush 42%

White: 76% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: This district is pretty ugly, but it’s necessary to shore up Hall and Hinchey. It has the preexisting Westchester flavor, but it moves upstate to take in nasty Republican-leaning areas. It’s so ugly that Orange County is represented by four congresscritters. Anyway, Lowey should do well here, as her home base in Rye stays.

District 19 – WESTERN NEW YORK GREEN

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

Area: Part of Chemung County (Elmira)/All of Steuben County/All of Allegany County/All of Cattaraugus County/All of Chautauqua County/Part of Erie County (Buffalo)

Population: 700,415

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 48% McCain 50%; Kerry 42% Bush 56% (former 29th)

White: 84% Black: 11% Native: 1% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: This is by far my favorite district that I drew. Massa takes in three of the heavily Republican Southern Tier counties (Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Steuben), while taking in moderate Chautauqua. It is also tethered to Buffalo, though, which shifts the district up in the Obama column tremendously. On the eastern side, the Democratic-leaning Elmira is taken in. This district should be safe for Massa.

District 20 – BEIGE

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

Area: Part of Otsego County/Part of Montgomery County/Part of Schenectady County (Schenectady)/Part of Schoharie County/Part of Delaware County/All of Greene County/All of Ulster County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Rockland County/Part of Dutchess County (Poughkeepsie)/Part of Shanango County

Population: 699,767

Obama: 56%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 59% McCain 39%; Kerry 54% Bush 45% (Current 22nd)

White: 81% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 7% Other: 2%

Notes: Shoring up Hinchey while losing Ithaca and Binghamton was a struggle, yet I think I did well. The district takes in the strongly-Dem precincts in Rockland County, going up through Sullivan, taking up some of the rest of the Capital Region, including Democratic Schenectady City. His base in Ulster is still there, though, and should propel Hinchey or whatever succeeding Democrat to win.

District 21 – DARK RED

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

Area: Part of Westchester County (White Plains, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County (Newburgh)/Part of Dutchess County/All of Columbia County

Population: 700,291

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 45% Bush 54% (Current 19th)

White: 78% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: Hall’s district gets quite the makeover, but now is solidly his. He moves upstate a little, but Dover Plains is still here. He takes in heavily Democratic White Plains in Westchester.

District 22 – BROWN

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

Area: Part of Fulton County/Part of Schenectady County All of Albany County (Albany)Part of Rensselaer County/Part of Saratoga County/Part of Schoharie County

Population: 700,675

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 40%; Kerry 55% Bush 43% (Current 21st)

White: 90% Black: 5% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: The Albany-based district is not as strongly Democratic as it once was, but it remains safe territory for Tonko. Schenectady is lost, as is Troy.

District 23 – UPSTATE LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)/Scott Murphy (D)

Area: Part of Saratoga County (Saratoga Springs)/All of Washington County/All of Essex County/All of Warren County/All of Clinton County/All of Franklin County/All of St. Lawrence County/All of Jefferson County/Part of Lewis County/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County/Part of Renssalaer County (Troy)

Population: 700,814

Obama: 55%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 52% McCain 47%; Kerry 47% Bush 51%

White: 92% Black: 3% Native: 0% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: I’m tired of Blue Dogs, so I really don’t care what happens to Murphy in this district. I had to axe on upstate district, so I chose Murphy’s and drew him into this one. Here, which now has a D PVI, takes in a lot of old McHugh-territory, while shedding Lewis and Hamilton counties. Also, Saratoga Springs and Troy are added, helping boost the district by a few percentage points. The district should be fine for whoever makes it out of the primary.

District 24 – SYRACUSE PURPLE

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County/All of Wayne County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Cayuga County/Part of Onondaga County (Syracuse)/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County

Population: 700,260

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 50% Bush 48% (Current 25th)

White: 87% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 2%

Notes: Maffei’s district remains the same in principle with its Syracuse base.

District 25 – ROCHESTER PINK

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County (Rochester)/Part of Livingston County (Geneseo)/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County

Population: 700,187

Obama: 59%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 68% McCain 30%; Kerry 63% Bush 36% (Current 28th)

White: 78% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 5% Other: 2%

Notes: A Monroe-centric district, Slaughter also absorbs Geneseo in Livingston, most of Ontario County, and the Obama-won precincts in Yates. Her district sheds a lot of Democratic votes (all in Buffalo), but she-or any other Rochester Democrat-would do well here. A bonus: no more earmuffs district.

District 26 – UPSTATE GRAY

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

Area: Part of Niagara County/Part of Erie County/All of Orleans County/All of Wyoming County/All of Genesee County/Part of Livingston County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Chemung County/All of Tioga County/Part of Broome County/Part of Chenango County/Part of Otsego County/Part of Oneida County/All of Herkimer County/All of Hamilton County/Part of Fulton County/Part of Montgomery County

Population: 700,225

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District: Obama 46% McCain 52%; Kerry 43% Bush 55%

White: 95% Black: 2% Native: 0% Asian: 0% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Clearly drawn to take every upstate Republican precinct, this district is beyond safe for Lee. I believe that Obama lost every single precinct in this county, except for two in lower Broome! The district is reminiscent of jeffmd’s earlier redistricting, but I do think that this is the way to shore up Democrats all across the state. Dems could hypothetically run a Blue Dog here, but that’s probably a waste of money, as the overall partisan bent strongly favors Republicans and the district is in the Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Capital Region media markets.

District 27 – BUFFALO LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

Area: Part of Erie County (Buffalo, Lackawanna)/Part of Niagara County (North Tonawanda, Lockport, Niagara Falls)

Population: 700,130

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 54% McCain 44%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 85% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 4% Other: 1%

Notes: This Buffalo-based district does not change much partisan-wise, but it shifts up to take Niagara Falls.

District 28 – MID-STATE PINK

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D)

Area: Part of Oneida County (Rome, Utica)/All of Madison County (Oneida)/Part of Onondaga County/Part of Cayuga County (Auburn)/All of Seneca County/All of Tompkins County (Ithaca)/All of Cortland County/Part of Broome County (Binghamton)/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Lewis County

Population: 699,838

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 50% McCain 48%; Kerry 47% Bush 53% (Current 24th)

White: 90% Black: 4% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Arcuri sheds a lot of the Republican precincts in Oneida, while retains his base in Utica. Further, he loses Herkimer and Chenango, while taking in Ithaca and Binghamton. The distict also takes in Auburn and the southern suburbs of Syracuse. The PVI is now in the D territory, and Arcuri should be fine from now on-though, he might consider leaving the Blue Dogs as votes in Tompkins might want a primary.