Swing State Project

We’ve made no secret that we’re hoping that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper jumps into the gubernatorial race. In a statement to the media today, Hickenlooper is considering it, but he’s giving Interior Secretary and ex-Sen. Ken Salazar the first right of refusal:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper said this afternoon he would make a relatively quick decision about whether to run for Colorado governor but said that he would consider entering the race only if Ken Salazar didn’t. […]

“Ken Salazar is Ken Salazar. Should Ken Salazar decide to run I’d probably be his first volunteer,” the popular Denver mayor said at a downtown press conference, surrounded by his family.

Hickenlooper praised Ritter for his “courage” in announcing earlier in the day that he wanted to devote more time and energy to his family and would abort his run for a second term, declaring that “this is Bill Ritter’s day.”

Will Salazar actually go for it? Well, there are enough rumblings to suggest that it’s a distinct possibility. Salazar’s brother, 3rd CD Rep. John Salazar, is on the record with words of encouragement for such a switch, and, for what it’s worth, ColoradoPols is hearing that an “official decision is all but done”. Salazar is staying mum on the question for now, but the Denver Post reports that he’ll have the White House’s permission to run if he so chooses.

Meanwhile, 7th CD Rep. Ed Perlmutter, who sounds pretty jacked now that Ritter is off the ballot, is not ruling out the possibility of a gubernatorial bid himself:

“This is a nightmare for the Republican party. This decision is a game changer, and I believe Colorado Democrats have a deep bench of potential candidates who can win this race. I am confident we will have a candidate who will present real solutions for Colorado instead of the Republicans who want to focus on the status quo by just saying no. We will retain this seat and continue to move our state forward and ensure Colorado remains one of the best states to live in.

“I am honored to have my name mentioned as a potential candidate. I love this state and I want to continue to serve my community and state and make it a great place to live for everybody. It’s a premature decision to make at this time, but one I will carefully consider.”

Hickenlooper is by far my first choice here, but Salazar appears to be salivating over the opportunity. We’ll just have to stay tuned.

Rasmussen (1/5, likely voters, 12/1 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)

Gilbert Baker (R): 51 (46)

Undecided: 7 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)

Curtis Coleman (R): 48 (44)

Undecided: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)

Tom Cox (R): 48 (44)

Undecided: 9 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)

Kim Hendren (R): 47 (46)

Undecided: 10 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Markos has already jumped upon this poll, trying to direct Lincoln’s attention to the possibility of retirement. DavidNYC made a persuasive case that Democrats would be better off with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter running in Lincoln’s place, and PPP will go into the field sometime during the next few weeks to test “alternatives” to Lincoln. (They’ll also test alternatives to Harry Reid and Michael Bennet, but that’s a discussion for another thread.)

RaceTracker: AR-Sen

• FL-Sen: Here’s one late-30-something, telegenic conservative helping out another: WI-01’s Rep. Paul Ryan just endorsed Marco Rubio in the Senate primary. Ryan (who’s actually been getting some dark-horse presidential buzz lately) may in fact be the real beneficiary here, since it may direct some of Rubio’s healthy glow among the teabag set in Ryan’s direction, bolstering his future credentials. Speaking of the teabaggers, despite having claimed the scalp of Florida GOP chair and key Charlie Crist ally Jim Greer, they still aren’t happy with the annointment of John Thrasher as the new chair; apparently he too is insufficiently crazy, or at least part of the same backroom process. Finally, take this with a huge hunk o’ salt, but ex-Rep. Mark Foley is highlighting a rumor on his Facebook page (yes, Mark Foley is on Facebook, and I’m not eager to think about what else might be on his page) that Charlie Crist is on the precipice of pulling his FL-Sen bid altogether and running for another term as Governor instead.

• NY-Sen-B: Lots of walking-things-back going on in New York’s Senate race. Republican Rep. Peter King is now saying he’s “leaning against” a Senate bid. Taegan Goddard rightly invokes both Mario Cuomo and Hamlet in ridiculing King’s protracted public vacillations. And ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. also may be dialing things down too, in regards to a possible primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand. An operative working with Ford is now saying that Ford is “unlikely to take the plunge,” and seemed more interested in “creating buzz” for himself. (Why am I not surprised?)

• AZ-Gov: The GOP primary field in Arizona is getting even more scrambled, with the entry of Some Dude who claims to be bringing $2.1 million to the table with him. Owen Buz Mills’ campaign report was the first anyone has seemingly heard of him. He’s a member of the National Rifle Association’s board of directors, and owner of a company called Gunsite (which operates a 2,000 acre weapons training site). Current Gov. Jan Brewer said she wouldn’t be deterred by Mills’ presence, as did former state regent John Munger (who probably has more to lose by Mills’ entry, as he’s sort of the de facto non-Brewer for now, at least until or unless state Treasurer Dean Martin gets in the race).

• CO-Gov: While much of the speculation, in the wake of Gov. Bill Ritter’s surprise decision not to seek another term, has focused on Denver mayor John Hickenlooper, or a switch from the Senate primary by former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, there’s one other high-profile possibility: Interior Secretary, and former Senator, Ken Salazar. Salazar, however, is staying mum, for now. PPP’s Tom Jensen is skeptical of a Salazar candidacy, though, pointing out that Salazar didn’t have strong favorables (39/36 in late 2008) even before he joined the Obama administration, and Colorado has seen one of the biggest drops in Obama approvals of any state, making his time in the Cabinet something of an anchor for him.

• CT-Gov: Three sort-of prominent local officials are all scoping out the already-crowded Governor’s race in the Nutmeg State. On the Dem side, the First Selectwoman of Simsbury, Mary Glassman, said she’ll seek the nomination (she was the 2006 Lt. Governor candidate). On the GOP side, Shelton mayor Mark Lauretti says he’s considering the race; he’s banking on his nearly 20 years of experience running the city, although he is currently the target of a federal corruption probe. (Although what Connecticut mayor isn’t?) Also, the Republican mayor of the much larger city of Danbury, Mark Boughton, says he’s reached a decision on whether or not to enter the race. The weird thing is, he doesn’t plan to let anyone know what that decision is for another month.

• AL-02: Businessman Rick Barber made it official today: he’s launching a teabag-powered primary challenge to the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby. He owns several “billiards facilities” in the area, as well as organizing tea parties in his spare time. The primary winner will face freshman Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright.

• AR-02: Another GOP establishment fave, former US Attorney Tim Griffin, just got bumped up a notch in the NRCC’s three-tiered fundraising pyramid [scheme]. He was promoted to “Contender,” leaving him just one step away from coveted “Young Gun” status.

• CA-19: With a big three-way brawl already brewing in the GOP open seat primary between ex-Rep. Richard Pombo, state Sen. Jeff Denham, and former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, ex-SoS and 2004 Senate race loser Bill Jones has decided to give the race a pass.

• NJ-03: One possible alternative to Jon Runyan as the GOP nominee in the 3rd said “no thanks” yesterday. State Sen. Christopher Connors was apparently the first choice of the Ocean County Republican party; Runyan is the Burlington County party’s pick, so it remains to be seen whether Ocean County unites behind Runyan or pushes someone else (like Toms River city councilor Maurice Hill).

• TN-08: The NRCC, based purely on their own fantasies, has been attempting to “gay bait” Dem Roy Herron. And of course, the tradmed has dutifully transcribed whatever bullshit the NRCC has spewed out. Funny, then, that the kid spokesbot responsible for this smear enjoys attending “GOB festivals.” No, Arrested Development fans, this has nothing to do with erstwhile ne’er-do-well George Oscar Bluth. Just click the link and John Aravosis will tell you all you need to know. (D)

• VA-05: The teabagging right keeps coalescing behind businessman Laurence Verga as the Republican primary alternative to state Sen. Robert Hurt (who apparently voted in favor of a tax once)… and now Verga is getting the endorsement of one of their iconic figures: Samuel “Joe the Plumber” Wurzelbacher. Could a Chuck Norris endorsement be far behind?

• UT-03, UT-Sen: Freshman Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz is expected to announce today that he’ll run for another term in the House. He’s been occasionally associated with a potential primary challenge to Senator Bob Bennett, but has more recently said he’s likelier to seek re-election to the House.

• WA-St. Sen.: This is getting way down in the weeds, but remember attorney Randy Gordon? He was briefly the leading Democratic candidate in the 2006 race in WA-08, before standing down in the primary in favor of a Camp Wellstone classmate with better fundraising chops: Darcy Burner. Well, it looks like he’s secured the temporary appointment to take over the vacant state Senate seat in the 41st LD, left vacant by Fred Jarrett’s move to become Deputy King Co. Executive; he should have a fairly easy time retaining this Dem-leaning seat based in suburban Bellevue.

• Mayors: Here’s a wild rumor (with Sally Quinn as its source): ex-Rep. and current CoS Rahm Emanuel isn’t planning on a long-term stay in the White House. Emanuel is reportedly eyeing a run for Chicago mayor in 2011. Also on the mayoral front, Baltimore mayor Sheila Dixon is leaving office; she offered her resignation and an Alford plea on a count of perjury in order to settle a number of charges against her.

• DCCC: Chris Van Hollen offered some boilerplate reassurances today that few, if any, Democratic retirements in the House are in the offing. He said there would be a “couple more,” if that. (With almost all the troublesome seats accounted for, that’s not a surprise; SC-05’s John Spratt seems to be the biggest question mark outstanding in a difficult seat.) (UPDATE: Ooops, I missed Spratt‘s re-election announcement over the holidays. So now I don’t know who’s vulnerable and unaccounted for.)

• RNC: By now, readers should be familiar with the NRCC’s cash crunch, which severely hampers its ability to capitalize on recruiting successes and the favorable environment. But anyone thinking they might turn to the RNC for a bailout may be surprised to hear that the once-flush RNC is in almost equally dire shape. After a spending spree under Michael Steele’s leadership (to the tune of $90 million last year), the RNC is only sitting on $8.7 million in the bank. That’s down from $22.8 CoH at the start of Steele’s tenure. That’s the party of fiscal discipline at work for you, right there.

I’m now going to say a sentence I never thought I’d have to say: Let’s round up everything that’s happened so far in North Dakota today. The big news in the wake of Byron Dorgan’s retirement announcement, of course, is perhaps also the least surprising: Republican Gov. John Hoeven wasted no time in throwing his name into the ring for the newly open seat:

Popular Gov. John Hoeven is letting his political allies know that he’s preparing to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.)

North Dakota Republican Party Chairman Gary Emineth told POLITICO that he spoke with Hoeven’s senior staff soon after learning of Dorgan’s retirement, and they informed him that Hoeven is preparing to jump in the Senate race once he deals with family issues back home.

Hoeven apparently will formally disclose his intentions within “two weeks.” Hoeven’s quick entry would almost certainly work to exclude any other prominent North Dakota Republicans from considering the race.

Now, who’s going to be running for the Democrats? If the Progressive Change Campaign Committee gets its way, it’ll still be Dorgan. They’ve organized a letter-writing campaign of constituents asking Dorgan to reconsider and run again; they’ve already racked up more than 1,000 notes.

The highest Dem on the totem pole would seem to be the state’s at-large Representative since 1992 (when Dorgan got promoted to the Senate), Earl Pomeroy. Pomeroy is officially noncommital right now, but reportedly has let his staff know that he’ll be remaining in the House. That may be for the best, as Pomeroy would be an underdog against Hoeven and he’d place that House seat in jeopardy as well. Instead, much of the speculation about possible Dem candidates has turned to former AG Heidi Heitkamp, who in fact ran against Hoeven in his first gubernatorial race in 2000. She held him to a 55-45 margin in that race after being diagnosed with breast cancer in mid-campaign, although she’s been out of politics since then. (She’s currently a director at Dakota Gasification, a synethetic fuels company.) (UPDATE: A new CQ article confirms that Pomeroy won’t run, and also mentions that in addition to the possibility of Heidi Heitkamp running, so too could her brother Joel Heitkamp, a former state Senator and now host of a popular local talk show.)

Speculation has also turned to perhaps the most famous North Dakotan: populist talk show host Ed Schultz, who has been fielding calls requesting that he run (including from the state House minority leader, Merle Boucher). Schultz said he’s a “long way” from actively considering it, but didn’t explicitly rule it out and did addresss Hoeven’s potential vulnerability.

We’ll have a clearer sense of this race next week, when R2K polls this race (assumedly with Pomeroy, Heitkamp, and Schultz matchups against Hoeven). R2K will also be tackling Colorado and Connecticut next week as well. (Discussion underway in BruinKid‘s diary.)

RaceTracker Wiki: ND-Sen

I don’t know why Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post keeps suggesting that Representative Leonard Boswell is a retirement risk for Democrats. True, Republicans have been trying to pressure him to call it quits, but I haven’t heard any Democrat around here express concerns about it.

According to Radio Iowa’s Kay Henderson, Boswell told a “small group of reporters” on Monday, “I’m running.”

Five Republicans have already announced plans to run in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and three of them have started hiring campaign staff.

It seems we’ll get a mini-test of the “tea party” phenomenon in the IA-03 Republican primary. Two contenders have significant backing in the Republican establishment: various elected officials are supporting State Senator Brad Zaun, while a bunch of major donors are supporting Jim Gibbons.

Long-shot candidate Dave Funk was the first Republican to step up against Boswell, and he just hired Iowa Tea Party Chairman Ryan Rhodes as his political director. I assume that Funk will not be able to raise enough money to compete with Zaun and Gibbons, and that there aren’t several thousand central Iowa teabaggers for him to pull out of his hat.

Whoever wins the June primary, the GOP will need something better than the tired rhetoric they’ve thrown at Boswell lately to win this D+1 district.

Public Policy Polling (1/4-5, registered voters):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 59

Rob Simmons (R): 28

Richard Blumenthal (D): 60

Linda McMahon (R): 28

Richard Blumenthal (D): 63

Peter Schiff (R): 23

(MoE: ±4.3%)

We got some tweets yesterday from PPP that they found Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal leading Republican opposition in the Connecticut Senate race by “uber-safe” margins. It seems like the message from that poll was received, as in the intervening day, Chris Dodd announced his retirement, and Blumenthal finally got took the plunge and is running for the open seat. With everyone wondering about the ramifications of this stunning swap, this has to be one of the most eagerly awaited polls I’ve seen.

The numbers are, indeed, stunning. Blumenthal routs his Republican opposition, with the closest race against ex-Rep. Rob Simmons a whopping 31-point margin. Blumenthal’s favorables are 59/19, including 71% favorable among Dems, 60% among indies, and even a 37/35 favorable among Republicans.

This contrasts with Chris Dodd’s numbers: losing 44-40 to Simmons, tying Linda McMahon at 43-43, and beating Peter Schiff 44-37. While that’s actually a little better than some other recent polls had shown, it still indicates pretty clearly why he felt it was time to step aside. PPP also tested Rep. Chris Murphy, who seemed like a likely Plan C but seems highly unlikely to enter now that Blumenthal is already in. Murphy beats Simmons 42-35, McMahon 43-36, and Schiff 44-28: again, indicating that the problem was specific to Dodd (who clocked in with a pitiable 29/57 approval), and not with Connecticut suddenly turning against Democrats.

With this, we’re moving the race rating to Lean Democratic. Why only Lean D? (This may actually disappoint many of our salivating fans.) Our rationale is that Blumenthal is untested in terms of running for federal office, with potentially “mile wide, inch deep” support that comes with name rec from decades as the state’s AG that may dissipate somewhat in a heated election, especially one in an unfavorable year for Democrats. However, we’re doing so out of an abundance of caution, and expect to move this rating further in the Democratic direction if additional polls are in the same range.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

Breaking news from Politico, it looks like North Dakota Governor John Hoeven (R) WILL run for the Senate to replace Dorgan.

So does this mean SSP changes it to “Likely R”?

FYI, with a nationwide economy where every state seems to be in the red, Hoeven’s popularity is sky high in part because North Dakota is like one of only two states where they actually somehow have a budget surplus.

And now we’re getting reports that MSNBC host Ed Schultz has been called up by the ND Dems leader Merle Boucher about possibly running for the Senate seat.  As it’s so new, Schultz hasn’t categorically said no.  More discussion on this at DailyKos and Huffington Post.

From Roll Call:

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), one of the Nutmeg State’s most popular politicians, will announce Wednesday afternoon that he will run to replace Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), who is expected to hold a noon news conference where he will announce he is not seeking re-election.

Blumenthal is likely the most popular politician in Connecticut and has easily won re-election to his statewide post since he was first elected in 1990. A November poll from Quinnipiac University showed Blumenthal with a 78 percent approval rating – and his entry into the race certainly boosts Democratic chances of keeping the seat.

Meanwhile, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R) and former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) have indicated that they are still in the race no matter what happens with Dodd – or who runs in his stead.

Democrats have their candidate of choice now. This race just got a whole lot tougher for the Republicans. How tough? Well, Public Policy Polling will give us a detailed look later this afternoon.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

The Jackson Sun has reported that State Senator Roy Herron (D-Dresden) has announced he has raised 675K in his bid to replace retiring Congressman John Tanner (D-Union City) since his entry into the race on December 2nd. A caveat of this total is that 250K are funds donated by Herron to his own campaign, which in itself shows a rather large commitment and ability to self-fund. This rather large figure however has not completely cleared the primary field for Senator Herron as retired State Representative, and former House Transportation Chairman, Phillip Pinion (D-Union City) says he is still considering the race and states he can raise the funds to compete with Herron if he chooses to enter the race.

Source link: http://www.jacksonsun.com/arti…

On the Republican side of the aisle – gospel singer/farmer/agri-business operator Stephen Fincher, of Crockett County, announced shortly after the Herron release that he had 620K from two quarters of fund-raising. Fincher was the touted candidate of the NRCC even before Tanner’s retirement due to his fund-raising ability, but this has changed somewhat now that Dr. Ron Kirkland of Jackson has entered the race as of January 4th. Dr. Kirkland is a highly respected doctor and military veteran from the district’s largest population center, Jackson. Big strengths to Kirkland’s campaign will be his ability to raise money and/or self-fund, strong ties to business/professional community within the district, and links to strategically important northwest Tennessee via his family ties to Union City.

Source links:

Jackson Sun (on Kirkland): http://www.jacksonsun.com/arti…

Knoxville News-Sentinel (Fincher fundraising/Kirkland): http://blogs.knoxnews.com/hump…

Texas candidate filing has now closed.

How are the parties going vis-a-vis recruiting candidates to run in all 32 House Districts?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

The Texas Congressional House delegation is currently split 20/12 in favor of the GOP.

All incumbents have refiled for all 32 Districts.

So onto challenger filings.

First the bad news and there is no way to sugarcoat this – The GOP have a full slate, many with multiple candidates. Yep all 12 Dem held Districts have GOP candidates:

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

And for Democrats the news isn’t great.

We have confirmed candidates in only 13 of 20 GOP held Districts:

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

And in the other 7 GOP held districts it seems that there is no candidate:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

This is unfortunate to say the least.

Remember that in 2008 we did not run candidates in 6 districts:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

One potential snafu is that it seems that Grier Raggio is not listed as filed in TX-32. Given that there were media stories about him filing on December 30th I expect that he will bob up on the TX Dems list in the next day or two. There are also 2 Dem candidates listed without a race so we will see where they end up too.

A disappointing but not surprising effort from the Texas Democratic Party. Whilst write-in candidates are possible this is highly unlikely if past cycles are any judge.

How can we expect to win the Governors race when 1/3rd of Republican Texan Congresscritters will not have a Democrat running against them in November?

** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***