Swing State Project

• AR-Sen: We’re up to eight Republicans packed into the GOP Senate field in Arkansas, none of whom are exactly top-tier but many of whom seem to have the capability to win both the primary and the general against Blanche Lincoln. The new guy is Stanley Reed, and although he hasn’t held elective office before, he seems to have the insider connections to make a serious go of it: he is former president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, and before that was chair of the Univ. of Arkansas Board of Trustees.

• CA-Sen/Gov: Here’s an interesting rumor, courtesy of Chris Cillizza: moderate ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, probably the GOP’s greatest threat in the general but an underfunded third-wheel in the gubernatorial primary, is considering moving over to the Senate race. Perhaps the news that Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner was planning to spend $15 million of his own moolah on his stalled gubernatorial bid was the last straw? It vaguely makes sense for Campbell (who has already run for Senate twice before, most recently in 2000), as he’d face off against underwhelming Carly Fiorina (who has lots of her own money, but no inclination to use it) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who has nothing but the wrath of the teabaggers powering him.

• IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune has released polls of the primary fields in the Illinois Senate race, revealing no surprises but also still a lot of people left to make up their minds. The Democratic field finds Alexi Giannoulias in the lead at 31, with Cheryle Jackson within kind-of striking distance at 17, David Hoffman at 9, and free-spending attorney Jacob Meister at 1 (with 38% undecided). For the GOP, the most notable number may be that Patrick Hughes, who’s gotten all the buzz as the guy behind whom all the right-wingers are coalescing, is actually getting nowhere at all. Hughes is at 3, tied with virtually unknown Kathleen Thomas (a former school board member from Springfield). Mark Kirk is at 41, but with 47% undecided, he still has a lot of selling to do. Speaking of which, the DSCC has a new website devoted solely to the man and his nonstop campaign-trail flip-flops: Two-Faced Kirk.

• IL-Gov: The same Chicago Tribune sample also looked at the gubernatorial primary fields. Incumbent Pat Quinn seems to be having little trouble on his path to the Dem nomination, beating Comptroller Dan Hynes 49-23. (Hynes may be second-guessing himself for getting into this race instead of the Senate field.) On the GOP side, it looks like former AG Jim Ryan (and 2002 loser) is in pole position despite his late entry to the race, thanks to being the only figure with statewide name rec. He’s at 26, with state party chair Andy McKenna at 12, downstate state Sen. Bill Brady at 10, suburban state Sen. Kirk Dillard at 9, businessman Adam Andrzejewski at 6, and DuPage Co. Board President Bob Schillerstrom at 2.

• PA-Gov: Rasmussen’s poll from last week of PA-Sen had a governor question too, and it shows all of the Dems getting thumped by Republican AG Tom Corbett. That probably has a lot to do with name recognition (Corbett gets his face in the news every day with Bonusgate, which is good for a bizarrely-high favorable of 59/18, while Auditor Jack Wagner is the only Dem with a statewide profile), but the Dems are starting out in a hole here once campaigning starts in earnest. Wagner fares best against Corbett, losing 43-30, while Corbett beats Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato 44-28, ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel 48-26, and Scranton mayor Chris Doherty 46-23.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Breaking! David Paterson is still in deep trouble. He’s at 23/76 approval, and 19/65 re-elects. He loses the Democratic primary to Andrew Cuomo 67-23 (and opinion is certainly solidifying behind Cuomo: 50% want him to run for Governor, while 31% want him to run again for AG). The good news is that Paterson still beats hapless ex-Rep. Rick Lazio in the general, 42-40, while Cuomo beats Lazio 68-22. Siena doesn’t look at Rudy Giuliani at all, making his disappearance from the governor’s race pretty apparent. Siena also takes a look at the Comptroller’s race (although without any William Thompson or Eliot Spitzer permutations), and find Dem Thomas DiNapoli beating GOPer John Faso, 40-24.

• RI-Gov: One state where the gubernatorial race looks less and less likely to go the Republicans’ way is Rhode Island, where their only announced candidate, businessman Rory Smith, quietly backed out of the race on Friday afternoon, citing his “limited political experience and political network.” Maybe state Rep. Joe Trillo could get coaxed back into the race for the GOP — or they could just throw their backing behind former Sen. and former Republican Lincoln Chafee‘s independent bid (although based on his recent comments about the state party, it doesn’t sound like he’d want anything to do with their backing).

• SC-Gov (pdf): One more gubernatorial poll, leftover from last week. PPP polled South Carolina, and found numbers very similar to Rasmussen‘s numbers from last week. Basically, Democrats need to hope for a matchup between Jim Rex (the Superintendent of Education, and only statewide Dem officeholder) and hard-partying, car-racing, plane-crashing Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer; Rex wins that matchup, 37-36. Dems lose every other permutation. Bauer manages to beat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen 38-33, and Robert Ford 37-33. AG Henry McMaster beats Rex 40-31, Sheheen 41-27, and Ford 42-27. And Rep. Gresham Barrett beats Rex 40-33, Sheheen 41-26, and Ford 42-28. (By way of comparison, Rasmussen finds Rex beating Bauer 36-35 and losing his other matchups.) PPP didn’t poll the primaries, but based on favorables, McMaster may be the likeliest GOP nominee, at 30/20, compared with Barrett, little-known outside his district at 14/17, and Bauer, toxic at 22/43. PPP also ran a generic D ballot against GOP Sen. Jim DeMint, who has no-name opposition so far, finding DeMint winning 47-38.

• TX-Gov: As expected, Kinky Friedman ended his Democratic gubernatorial primary bid today. Friedman declined to endorse either Bill White (whose entry probably precipitated Friedman’s exit) or Farouk Shami, despite some connections to Shami. What may not have been expected was that Friedman dropped down to the Agriculture Commissioner race, where he’ll join fellow gubernatorial race refugee Hank Gilbert. While Friedman doesn’t seem to have an agricultural background, he does have as an advisor and backer former Ag Comm. and populist pundit Jim Hightower.

• ID-01: I hadn’t heard any rumblings about this happening, but in case anyone was wondering, Larry Grant (the former software exec who barely lost the 2006 ID-01 race to Bill Sali) said he wouldn’t primary Democratic freshman Rep. Walt Minnick in 2010. Minnick has raised some hackles for being the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus (not that that shouldn’t be a surprise in an R+18 district, but he’s been taking that to extremes lately, leading the way to scrap the new Consumer Financial Protection Agency). Grant also denied that he’d be running in 2010 as a moderate Republican (conceivably to Minnick’s left?), although he seemed to suggest that he could prevail against that field of wannabes, accusing Vaughn Ward of being a “Sarah Palin Republican” and Raul Labrador a “Bill Sali Republican.” (I wonder what that would make Bill Sali, if he decided to jump in?)

• IL-10: In the Democratic primary clash in the open 10th, state Rep. Julie Hamos scored a big labor endorsement today, from the AFSCME.

• IL-14: Ethan Hastert a moderate? Either the apple falls far from the tree, or the Main Street Partnership is having to greatly expand their definition of “moderate” is order to stay relevant in a GOP intent on purging itself into oblivion. At any rate, the Main Streeters’ PAC gave to Hastert (making clear where the ideological fault lines lie in his primary against state Sen. Randy Hultgren), along with OH-15’s Steve Stivers, OH-16’s Jim Renacci, and NH-02’s Charlie Bass.

• KS-03: The specter of Republican civil war in the open seat race in Kansas’s 3rd is abating, as state Sen. (and 2008 loser) Nick Jordan has the respect of both the moderate and conservative wings of the state’s party. Maybe most significantly, state Sen. Jeff Colyer, from the fire-breathing camp, said today that he won’t challenge Jordan in the primary. Moderate state Rep. Kevin Yoder is still exploring the race, though.

• PA-10: Sophomore Democratic Rep. Chris Carney has been one of the juiciest targets with only token Republican opposition, but the GOP may have found an elected official willing to take him on: state Rep. Michael Peifer, who represents a rural portion of the district.

• SC-01: Another Dem is in the hunt in the 1st, for the right to go up against Rep. Henry Brown (assuming he survives his primary). Retired Navy officer and accountant Dick Withington is getting in; his only political experience is losing a state Rep. race in 2004.

• TN-03: The open seat in the 3rd should be attracting at least some Democratic interest, but following the withdrawal of establishment candidate Paula Flowers last month, now even the race’s Some Dude bailed out: businessman (and 2006 loser) Brent Benedict got out, citing family health concerns. A few other potentially-credible Democrats are now looking at the race, though, including Chattanooga city councilor Andrae McGary and Hamilton County Democratic party chair Jeff Brown.

• TX-10: Democratic businessman Jack McDonald has gotten lots of buzz for solid fundraising for a potential run against GOP Rep. Michael McCaul, who looks increasingly shaky in the demographically-changing 10th. Last week, he removed the “exploratory” part of his campaign account, making it official, although clearly he’s been acting like a candidate all year.

• VA-05: The Virginia GOP decided on a primary, rather than a convention, to pick the person who takes on endangered freshman Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th. In a weird way, the primary is better news for the party’s establishment, as the conventions tend to be dominated by the extremists who pick pure but unelectable candidates (recall last year’s Senate flap, where the decision to have a convention drove out moderate Rep. Tom Davis and left them with ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore). With their top contender, state Sen. Rob Hurt, coming from the sane wing of the party, that increases his odds of getting through to the general — but the downside is that this may drive dissatisfied teabaggers to the third-party right-wing candidacy of Bradley Rees in the general.

• WA-03: A journeyman Democrat is considering the open seat race in the 3rd, potentially setting up a primary with early entrant state Rep. Deb Wallace. Denny Heck was a state Rep. in the 80s, lost a Superintendent of Education race, became Gov. Booth Gardner’s chief of staff, and then founded TVW, the state’s local equivalent of C-SPAN. The article also mentions a couple other Dems interested in the race not previously mentioned, including state Sen. Brian Hatfield.

• Mayors: In a runoff election that had an undercurrent of homophobia thanks to the involvement of outside groups, city controller Annise Parker won on Saturday, making Houston by far the largest city to ever elect an openly LGBT mayor. She defeated former city attorney Gene Locke 53-47.

• Redistricting: The Texas Tribune takes a look at the many moving parts in legislative redistricting post-2010 in Texas. Factors include whether the Dems will be able to pick up the state House next year (sounding less likely), and which state officials are on the Legislative Redistricting Board (which takes over if the legislature can’t agree, which seems likely anyway since there’s a 2/3s requirement for the maps to clear the Senate and the GOP is short of 2/3s there).

• Demographics: Governing Magazine has an interesting piece on Gwinnett County, Georgia, which is as good an example as any of how suburbs, even in some of the reddest states, are becoming bluer as they become more diverse thanks to immigration. Gwinnett County has fallen below 50% non-Hispanic white, and it gave Obama 44% of the vote last year.

• Polltopia: PPP is asking for help yet again on which congressional district to poll next. This time, it’ll be a GOP-held district: Michele Bachmann’s MN-06, Lee Terry’s NE-02, or Pat Tiberi’s OH-12.

More bad news for the DCCC:

Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) will retire after 13 terms, he announced today in a press release, becoming the 4th Dem in a potentially competitive district to step down in the past 4 weeks.

First elected in 1984, Gordon had a solid hold on his seat, winning his past 5 re-election bids with more than 60% of the vote; his office said he has never lost any of the 15 counties he represents. He is stepping down, he said, after re-evaluating his future.

“When I was elected, I was the youngest member of the Tennessee congressional delegation; now, I’m one of the oldest. In fact, I have members of my staff who weren’t even born when I took office. That tells me it’s time for a new chapter,” Gordon said in a statement.

At a PVI of R+13, this seat will be even tougher than John Tanner’s open 8th District (R+6) to defend. While Al Gore just barely lost Gordon’s district in 2000, Barack Obama was crushed here by 25 points last year. (John Kerry didn’t fare much better in the interim, losing by 20 points.)

It’s unclear whether Dems have anyone on the farm team who will step up to run for the seat. For the Republicans, a primary is expected between Rutherford Co. GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik and state Sen. Jim Tracy.

UPDATE: Hotline On Call posts the names of a few possible Democratic contenders:

A Dem source points out early names floated as possible Gordon replacements, including state Reps. Mike McDonald and Hank Fincher, Wilson Co. Property Assessor Jack Pratt, Wilson Co. Sheriff Terry Ashe, ex-state Sen. Andy Womack and Kent Syler, a top Gordon aide.

LATER UPDATE: Politico also mentions Murfreesboro mayor Tommy Bragg as a possible Democratic candidate.

RaceTracker Wiki: TN-06

First thank to Dave by his very good application for redistricting and thanks to the people what help me for save and up here the maps. This is my first diary here.

Well, im not expert in laws for redistricting but i hope to respect all. I try let all incumbents their own district, let all democrats safe, and make so compact districts respecting the county borders.

These are the results:

CD1: (Blue) Frank Kratovil (D)

– D+8 Obama 61% McCain 37%

– Include all of Kent, Queen Anne’s, Caroline and Talbot counties.

– Include part of Baltimore county and part of Baltimore city.

– White 57% Black 36%

– Deviation of population: -1673

CD2: (Green) Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

– D+8 Obama 61% McCain 37%

– Include all of Carroll county.

– Include part of Baltimore, Howard and Prince George’s counties.

– White 50% Black 29% Hisp 14%

– Deviation of population: -3402

CD3: (Purple) John Sarbanes (D)

– D+11 Obama 64% McCain 34%

– Include part of Baltimore, Howard and Anne Arundel counties.

– White 56% Black 30%

– Deviation of population: -2964

CD4: (Red) Donna Edwards (D)

– D+10 Obama 63% McCain 36%

– Include part of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties.

– White 54% Black 38%

– Deviation of population: -557

CD5: (Yellow) Steny Hoyer (D)

– D+10 Obama 63% McCain 36%

– Include all of Charles, Calvert, St-Mary’s, Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset and Worcester counties.

– Include part Prince George’s county.

– White 56% Black 36%

– Deviation of population: -3580

CD6: (Greenish blue) Roscoe Bartlett (R)

– D+10 Obama 63% McCain 36%

– Include part of Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 58% Black 16% Hisp 13% Asian 11%

– Deviation of population: +8208

CD7: (Gray) Elijah Cummings (D)

– D+8 Obama 61% McCain 37%

– Include all of Cecil and Hartford counties.

– Include part of Baltimore county and part of Baltimore city.

– White 60% Black 34%

– Deviation of population: -3148

CD8: (Lilac) Chris Van Hollen (D)

– D+8 Obama 61% McCain 37%

– Include all of Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties.

– Include part of Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 70% Black 10% Hisp 10% Asian 8%

– Deviation of population: +7113

These results are using new population estimations. CD6 and CD8 have few more population because i try to respect county borders.

Im not sure if E Cummings get inside his new 7th district but i think he have a good part of Baltimore in the new district.

In images:

UPDATE FOR INCLUDE BLACK MAJORITIES IN CD4 AND CD7:

Giving black majorities of 50% to 4th and 7th district these are the results:

CD1: (Blue) Frank Kratovil (D)

– D+6 Obama 59% McCain 39%

– Include all of Kent, Queen Anne’s, Caroline and Talbot counties.

– Include part of Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Prince George’s counties and part of Baltimore city.

– White 65% Black 26%

– Deviation of population: +6012

CD2: (Green) Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Harford, Baltimore, Carrol, Howard, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties.

– White 50% Black 26% Hisp 15%

– Deviation of population: -4800

CD3: (Purple) John Sarbanes (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Harford, Baltimore, Howard counties and part of Baltimore city.

– White 64% Black 25% Asian 6%

– Deviation of population: -2980

CD4: (Red) Donna Edwards (D)

– D+17 Obama 70% McCain 29%

– Include part of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties.

– Black 50% White 42%

– Deviation of population: +3968

CD5: (Yellow) Steny Hoyer (D)

– D+6 Obama 59% McCain 40%

– Include all of Charles, Calvert, St-Mary’s, Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset and Worcester counties.

– Include part Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties.

– White 63% Black 30%

– Deviation of population: +3283

CD6: (Greenish blue) Roscoe Bartlett (R)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Carroll, Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 61% Black 14% Hisp 13% Asian 10%

– Deviation of population: -1859

CD7: (Gray) Elijah Cummings (D)

– D+16 Obama 69% McCain 30%

– Include all of Cecil county.

– Include part of Harford and Baltimore counties and part of Baltimore city.

– Black 50% White 44%

– Deviation of population: +1739

CD8: (Lilac) Chris Van Hollen (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 38%

– Include all of Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties.

– Include part of Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 73% Black 9% Hisp 8% Asian 8%

– Deviation of population: -5366

These results are using new population estimations.

In images:

In the last few weeks, Rasmussen Reports – already among the most prolific pollsters – has released a torrent of new senate and gubernatorial polls. While political junkies might instinctively be grateful for all the data, partisans have to be concerned about Rasmussen’s ability to drive the over-arching narrative. This is all the more so given widespread concerns about Rasmussen’s methodology – concerns which have given rise to at least two new detailed analyses on Pollster.com this month, one by Mark Blumenthal and the second by Alan Abramowitz.

I personally think Rasmussen Reports has an axe to grind – their made-up way of reporting presidential favorables and their questionable non-electoral polls make me mistrustful. At the same time, we don’t want to stick our heads in the sand, and 538.com’s pollster ratings do indicate that Rasmussen seems to be interested in getting things right, at least as far as the horserace is concerned. So we’ve decided to package up the most recent Raz surveys and let ’em all at you in one blast.

CT-Sen (12/7, likely voters, 9/10 in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 35 (39)

Rob Simmons (R): 48 (49)

Other: 7 (5)

Undecided: 11 (6)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (42)

Peter Schiff (R): 40 (40)

Other: 8 (7)

Undecided: 14 (10)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 38

Linda McMahon (R): 43

Other: 8

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Sen (12/8, likely voters, 9/15 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 37 (36)

Jane Norton (R): 46 (45)

Other: 8 (7)

Undecided: 8 (12)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41

Tom Wiens (R): 42

Other: 7

Undecided: 10

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 38

Ken Buck (R): 42

Other: 8

Undecided: 12

Andrew Romanoff (D): 34 (34)

Jane Norton (R): 45 (42)

Other: 7 (8)

Undecided: 15 (15)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40

Tom Wiens (R): 41

Other: 5

Undecided: 14

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39

Ken Buck (R): 41

Other: 6

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (12/9, likely voters, 10/14 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 42 (41)

Mark Kirk (R): 39 (41)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 14 (13)

Cheryle Jackson (D): 39 (39)

Mark Kirk (R): 42 (43)

Other: 4 (4)

Undecided: 15 (13)

David Hoffman (D): 38 (33)

Mark Kirk (R): 42 (43)

Other: 3 (8)

Undecided: 17 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (12/9, likely voters, 9/14 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (40)

Sue Lowden (R): 49 (50)

Other: 6 (4)

Undecided: 3 (5)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (43)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)

Other: 6 (4)

Undecided: 2 (3)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43

Sharron Angle (R): 47

Other: 7

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (12/7, likely voters, 9/23 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 38 (41)

Other: 8 (6)

Undecided: 18 (14)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 33 (38)

Rob Portman (R): 40 (40)

Other: 7 (5)

Undecided: 20 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (12/7, likely voters,  9/23 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 39 (45)

Jon Kasich (R): 48 (46)

Other: 3 (3)

Undecided: 11 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SC-Gov (12/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Rex (D): 33

Gresham Barrett (R): 39

Other: 7

Undecided: 21

Jim Rex (D): 36

Andre Bauer (R): 35

Other: 13

Undecided: 16

Jim Rex (D): 32

Henry McMaster (R): 39

Other: 10

Undecided: 19

Vincent Sheheen (D): 23

Gresham Barrett (R): 45

Other: 11

Undecided: 20

Vincent Sheheen (D): 29

Andre Bauer (R): 39

Other: 13

Undecided: 19

Vincent Sheheen (D): 26

Henry McMaster (R): 43

Other: 10

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.5%)

For the final word, I’ll turn things over to Jon Stewart. The ever-brights at Fox & Friends had some difficulty in retransmitting a misleadingly-worded (and dodgy) Rasmussen survey on global warming, leading Stewart to opine (at 1:50) that this poll had a margin of error of “monkey-fuck ridiculous”:

Rasmussen Reports, you decide.

So Utah gains a seat, having no clue about Utah Politics I decided to make a district as ridiculously large as possible while keeping the deviation of population as low as possible.  I knew that most of the population in Utah was around Salt Lake City and the Provo area, but I had no idea it was that concentrated.

CD-01:  Blue deviates from the average district population with +7

CD-02:  Green deviates the least from the district average with -6 people

CD-03:  Purple deviates the most from the district average which is -26 people

CD-04:  I admit that the Red district is packed with people to make it larger.  +25 people from the district average :p

I think CD-04 may be geographically one of the largest not-at-large districts

Houston’s mayoral runoff is today, between City Controller Annise Parker and former City Attorney Gene Locke. Polls close at 7pm local time, 8pm Eastern. The Houston Chronicle will carry results here. If you’d like to make predictions, go right ahead!

UPDATE: Parker wins, 53-47.

Add one more special election to the list:

U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie announced today that he is resigning from Congress to run for governor full time….

The resignation will trigger a special election to fill the remainder of Abercrombie’s current congressional term which ends January 2011. The seat will also be up for grabs in the general election in November for the next two-year term.

This may not be too much of a surprise (although Abercrombie in April said he wouldn’t resign his seat), as Abercrombie needs to spend a lot of time in Hawaii to win the race, and that’s a rather long commute from Washington DC. This decision doesn’t affect the overall electoral calculus much, as Abercrombie was already in the middle of his last term, as he can’t run for House and Governor at the same time. On the Democratic side, state Senate president Colleen Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case are already running to succeed Abercrombie; Honolulu city councilor Charles Djou is running for the Republicans. Assumedly, they will all choose to participate in the special election, although they could choose to run only in the regularly scheduled election.

Abercrombie hasn’t set his final day in office, so the date of the special election won’t be known for a while. (I’m wondering if we could have a weird circumstance like Abercrombie’s first election to the House, where on the same day he won the special election to take over the House seat but lost the Democratic primary for the full term.)

UPDATE: If the special election held in 2003 to replace Patsy Mink (which is how Ed Case won) is any indication, it looks like Hawaiian special elections are just one big pool of people from all parties, with the first-past-the-post winning the whole thing (instead of a primary and then a general). If so, that could set up a weird scenario where Djou narrowly wins the special election because Hanabusa and Case split the majority of Democratic votes (say 40% Djou, 35% Hanabusa, 25% Case).

LATER UPDATE (James): In the comments, local SSPer skaje makes the case that the special election will only hurt Djou’s chances by splitting the right-of-center vote with Ed Case. It’s an interesting argument, and I have to admit that this thought crossed my mind. There’s no denying that Case has based a lot of his appeal on his position on the rightward side of Hawaii’s political equilibrium, but whether or not we see Republican-leaning voters splitting may end up hinging upon the type of campaign that Case chooses to run.

LATE LATE SHOW UPDATE (David): When would a special election occur? Essentially, whenever the Chief Election Officer wants to. According to Hawaii statutes, the only requirement is that the “CEO” must conduct a special election within sixty days of making a proclamation that there will be a special election. But the law is silent as to how soon such a proclamation must be issued. Indeed, CEO Kevin Cronin says that his department is strapped and that there may not even be a special election, or may be delayed until the September primary. Another wrinkle is that Cronin recently announced he was stepping down at the end of this month, so the decision may not fall to him.

RaceTracker Wiki: HI-01