Swing State Project

• AR-Sen: A labor-funded group, the Citizens for Strength and Security, is up with a six-digit ad buy in the Arkansas Senate race, attacking putative GOP frontrunner state Sen. Gilbert Baker for his pork-hungry ways. There’s some speculation, though, that the real target of the ad isn’t Baker but rather Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who’s publicly mulling a primary challenge to Blanche Lincoln; observers wonder if this is a sign that the SEIU and allies are firing a shot across Halter’s bow, showing that they have Lincoln’s back (at least monetarily) in exchange for a cloture vote on health care reform for her. With the Arkansas Democratic Party also laying out a lot of money on a pro-Lincoln TV ad, there does seem to be something concerted going on.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has caught a lot of attention with her splashy spending on the Senate race, blowing through $2 million in three months. Her first campaign finance report, though, is creating a whole lot of question marks. A significant amount of that money isn’t itemized (as campaign finance laws would require), but rather listed as in-kind contributions from McMahon herself; this goes well beyond the usual food and travel stuff that gets listed as in-kind, to include legal fee, survey research, and technology. On the Dem side, poor Chris Dodd won’t be able to attend his own Biden-headlined fundraiser because of the Senate’s working weekend; his wife Jackie will be pinch-hitting for him.

• FL-Sen: RNC chair Michael Steele previously warned stimulus-supporting moderates that the GOP would be “coming after them,” but he dialed that back in a recent St. Pete Times interview when the subject came to Charlie Crist, suggesting a more neutral RNC stance on the Senate primary. He sounded sympathetic about Crist’s job, saying being governor is “not as simple as right or left.”

• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Planned Parenthood issued endorsements in the Illinois races, and just went with the establishment choices (Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn), despite Cheryle Jackson making a big issue out of reproductive rights in health care reform in her Senate primary bid. Perhaps to even things out after spurning Jackson, they also endorsed in the Cook County Board president race, giving the nod to Toni Preckwinkle.

• NC-Sen: We’re already seeing some ideological differences in the North Carolina Dem primary field, as SoS Elaine Marshall and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham seek to differentiate themselves. Marshall says she’d support the public option, while Cunningham says he’d only have voted to start debate on HCR. (Campaign Diaries also has a longer piece on the race today.)

• NY-Sen-B: Suffolk County Legislator (i.e. county commissioner in most states) Jon Cooper is the only elected Dem who has been moving full speed ahead on a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand rather than tipping in a toe and then turning tail. (Activist Jonathan Tasini is already committed to a primary run too.) Cooper says he’ll make a public announcement about his intentions next week, and considering that he’s bringing along a few allies (most notably Assemblyman Charles Levine) it may point to a run… not that he’s likely to pose much of a challenge to Gillibrand.

• CO-Gov: The Denver Post has an in-depth look at how the state’s teabaggers are in a lather over the party establishment’s efforts to clear the field for ex-Rep. Scott McInnis in the gubernatorial race. With state Sen. Josh Penry and ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo pushed aside, though, they don’t have anyone to hang their tri-cornered hats on, other than random businessman Dan Maes, who doesn’t seem to have the name rec or money to make much of an impact in the primary.

• ID-Gov: Democrats finally landed a credible candidate to go up against Butch Otter in the Idaho governor’s race (one of the few anywhere in either column to rate as “Safe”). Keith Allred is a former Harvard professor who’s now a mediator and consultant, who’s attracted a lot of attention via his bipartisan economy-boosting group The Common Interest.

• MN-Gov: Here’s another campaign finance screwup, that may hurt gubernatorial candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher. It turns out that Kelliher maxed-out donors were directed to give to the DFL, which in turn bought an expensive voter database for Kelliher’s campaign’s use. The money has been returned, but this may point to some favoritism on the DFL’s part, because this arrangement wasn’t offered to any of the other candidates.

• NV-Gov: This may be an exercise in advanced tea leaf reading, but the fact that Carolyn Goodman, wife of Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman, has stepped down from her post on the school board is taken to mean that she may be planning on running for Las Vegas mayor in 2011 — which would in turn suggest that Oscar Goodman will be planning on being Governor at that point.

• GA-12: Bedecked in a fuschia hat, former state Sen. Regina Thomas officially kicked off her Dem primary rematch against Rep. John Barrow with an event in Savannah today. She only got 24% against Barrow last year, but may benefit from an earlier start this cycle.

• TN-08: The elevation of farmer/gospel singer Stephen Fincher to “Contender” by the NRCC isn’t sitting well with some other Republicans in the district who are sniffing out the now-competitive race in the wake of Rep. John Tanner’s retirement. A few other Republicans, most notably Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn Jr., are interested. (Flinn is from the district’s small slice of Memphis suburbs, which may be a liability though in this mostly-rural district.) Also mentioned as a potential GOP candidate is Jackson-area physician Ron Kirkland.

• Cook Co. Board Pres.: There’s already a poll out on the Cook County Board president race (the top slot in the nation’s second-largest county, and the race that Rep. Danny Davis recently dropped out of). Incumbent Todd Stroger is in bad shape, with only 14% of the vote; he trails both Dorothy Brown at 29 and Toni Preckwinkle at 20, leading only Terrence O’Brien at 11.

• Mayors: The mayoral runoff in Houston, the nation’s fourth-largest city, is set for tomorrow. City controller Annise Parker (who just got Burnt Orange Report’s endorsement) led in the November election; she faces former city attorney Gene Locke. A Parker victory would make Houston by far the largest city to ever elect an openly LGBT mayor.

After seeing the addition of partisan data for New York, I decided to try my hand at creating a 28-0 map of New York (well at least a map where Obama won 28 districts in 2008).

From the outset, there are a couple of assumptions that went into the design. 

1) Keep intact county lines as much as possible.
2) Make it difficult for Republicans to win the district.
3) Ignore homes of incumbents (both R and D)
4) I also did not match up existing district numbers with the map

The top level description of the map is that I succeeded. In western NY, I grouped counties in an East-West manner, splitting Buffalo and stretching those districts from the Finger Lakes to Lake Erie. In eastern NY, I grouped counties North/South with Scott Murphy's District going from the Canadian border to Dutchess County. On Long Island, I split NY 2 to go East-West across eastern Suffolk and Nassau counties. 

In the end, I created 28 districts Obama won, with only four district where Obama won with 51% of the vote or less.

 

Long Island

The goal for Long Island was to create three Democratic performing districts in Suffolk and Nassau counties. To that end I was successful,  however, there are two or three Districts that in the wrong year, could flip to the Republicans. However, since Democratic performance has been improving in this area, it is possible that demographic trends will preserve Democrats in this area.

CD 1: (blue) Suffolk – 83% White 8% Hispanic
52-47 Obama

CD 2: (green) Suffolk, Northern Nassau –  81% White 8% Hispanic
52-47 Obama

CD 3: (purple) Suffolk, Southern Nassau – 76% White 11% Hispanic
51-47 Obama

CD 4: (red) South and West Nassau – 65% White 15% Black 12% Hispanic
57-42 Obama

I admit I am not familiar with the actual New York City area to make an informed observation about these districts, but I do preserve a number of minority-majority districts. Only the Staten Island district may flip in a bad year.

CD 5: (yellow) South Queens – 22% White 49% Black 14% Hispanic
81-18 Obama

CD 6: Central Brooklyn – 6% White 73% Black 14% Hispanic
95-4 Obama

CD 7: (grey) Northern Queens –  42% White 27% Asian 18% Hispanic
65-33 Obama

CD 8: Northern Queens, Extends into Kings – 29% White 15% Asian 8% Black 43% Hispanic
74-25 Obama

CD 9: Northern Queens Bronx – 8% White 27% Black 5% Asian 56% Hispanic
90-8 Obama

CD 10: (magenta) Western Queens, Western King – 28% White 29% Black 30% Hispanic
87-11 Obama

CD 11: Southern Brooklyn – 57% White 18% Black 10% Asian 10% Hispanic
58-41 Obama

CD 12: Central/ West Manhattan – 70% White 6% Black 8% Asian 12% Hispanic
82-16 Obama

CD 13: Lower Manhattan/Brooklyn – 53% White 6% Black 17% Asian 18% Hispanic
77-21 Obama

CD 14: Staten Island/Brooklyn – 63% White 6% Black 10% Asian 17% Hispanic 51-47 Obama

CD 15: Harlem/East Side – 21% White 27% Black 45% Hispanic
90-8 Obama

CD 16: (green) Bronx/SE Yonkers – 19% White 30% Black 41% Hispanic
85-14 Obama

Rockland, Westchester area

 I have three districts extending out of New York City into Yonkers and Rockland and Westchester counties. This arrangement is similar to, but expands upon the current map of the area. where both NY 17 and NY 18 extend into the City. 

In the existing eastern most district, NY 18, Representative Lowey has consistently won with over 65% of the vote (Bush/Kerry 58%) – this performance may go down with this map's NY 20. However, this is necessary to strengthen (this map's) NY 18 (Hall), where Obama would have a more comfortable victory. 

CD 17: Bronx, W. Westchester, SE Rockland – 64% White 12% Black 15% Hispanic
61-37 Obama

CD 18: (yellow) Orange, S Sullivan, S Ulster, N Rockland, Poughkeepsie –  79% White 7% Black 9% Hispanic
54-44 Obama

CD 20: (pink) Putnam, E Westchester, E Bronx 89% White
53-44 Obama

Upstate NY

Upstate New York keeps counties intact and create nine districts where Democrats should be expected to win in most elections. However, in the right circumstances several districts could flip. However, I expect that no conservative Republican could win in these areas – especially with the trends in New England in support of Democrats.

Unlike the existing map, I took a more radical approach to dividing the districts, weakening the existing District around Albany (Tonko) and around Binghamton (Hinchey). I support Murphy and Owens, as well as take out Lee. However, this map does not respect the residence of incumbents as Owens and Murphy are placed in the same district as well as Maffei and Arcuri.  

CD 19: (ugly green) Franklin, Clinton, Essex, Washington, Rensselaer (-Rensselaer), Columbia, Dutchess (most) – 89% White
53-44 Obama 

This is Scott Murphy's current district. I help him by extending the district all the way to the Canadian border, and the Democratic leaning counties of Franklin and Clinton counties.

CD 21: (red) Warren, Saratoga, Albany, Greene, Delaware (most), NE. Ulster – 88% White 5% Black
56-42 Obama

I take the Tonko's Albany based district, and go North to Saratoga and then South into Delaware and Ulster counties. The district also includes the City of Rensselaer.

CD 22: (brown) Chautauqua, Cattaragus, Allegany, S. Steuben, Chemung, S. Tompkins, S. Broome, S Delaware, N. Sullivan (includes Binghamton and Ithica) – 89% White
51-46 Obama

Of all the districts that undergo a change, perhaps the most radical change is to Hinchey's district. The district now spans most of New York's southern border, but expands North to take in the city of Ithica. This district is perhaps the toughest to defend in a wave election, but the Democratic strongholds of Ithica and Binghamton should prevent a Republican from staying in office long.

CD 23: (light blue) N. Broome, Chenango, Madison, Ostego, Herkimer, Fulton, Montgonery, Schoharie, Fulton, Hamilton, Onodaga (part) – 90% White
52-46 Obama

This is the district I had the most fun drawing – as it streches across most of Central New York, connecting Syracuse and Schenectady and into the Binghamton suburbs. This is a Democrat performing district, but would vulnerable in a wave election.

CD 24: (purple) St. Lawrence, Jefferson, Lewis, Oneida, Oswego, Onodaga (part) 91% White
50-48 Obama

Because I was not concerend about where incumbents live, I was able to create a Democratic leaning district in Northern New York. The district extends into the Syracuse suburbs to preserve a Democratic lean. 

CD 25: Onodaga (Syracuse and S), Wayne, Cayuga, Seneca, Yates, N. Steuben, Schulyer, N. Tompkins, Cortland 90% White
52-46 Obama

With the City of Syracuse divided between the 23rd and 25th, this district expands westward. In a wave election, a Republican could take the district, but turnout in Syracuse should prevent that.

CD 26: (dark grey) Monroe (most), Orleans – 76% White 13% Black 5% Hispanic 58-40 Obama

I make the Rocester area whole -but add in the more conservative Orleans county.

The Buffalo area retains the exsiting split – but both then stretch Eastward to take some of the rural counties in Western NY. Obama still won each of the districts with over 53% of the vote.

CD 27: S and E Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario – 85% White 10% Black 53-44 Obama

CD 28 – N Erie, Niagara, Genese, S Monroe – 84% White 8% Black 54-43 Obama

In conclusion, a 28-0 vote is possible, but because of the voting patterns in Central and Western NY, a 28-0 map will leave several Democrats vulnerable to a wave election, especially if one goal is compactness and the preservation of county borders. 

After seeing all the great maps here I’ve decide to give it a try.  This is my first attempt at redistricting a state and my first diary.  While doing this for the first time I kind of wished I had lived in a smaller state, but Texas is where I grew up and where I live.  Since this is my first attempt at redistricting a state I want constructive criticism, but please be gentle 🙂 especially the long-time observers of Texas Politics because I am sure some of my commentary may be a bit off on some of the areas I am less familiar with.  I used Daves Redistricting App for this.  Please note I am not exactly familiar with the VRA law and how to apply it because I am new at this so if someone would like to critique this map for that it would be appreciated.

With Bill White running for Governor and the Democrats a few seats from the majority in the House, what would a Democratic Redistricting of Texas look like?

My goals for doing a Democratic redistricting of Texas were to

1.  Create at least two new Democratic seats in DFW

2.  Clean up Travis County

3.  Clean up Harris County, add another Dem seat.

4.  Work to weaken several GOP incumbents including Sessions and Culberson.

All districts have a +/- 2.5% population deviation from the average.  I will describe each group of district based on metro area or geographic location.

East Texas

CD-1 Largely consists of the currently existing CD-4.  Like most of rural Texas it is very white, very conservative. 71% White, 15% African American, 10% Hispanic  Safe R

CD-5 now includes Ellis County and the City of Tyler and is out of Dallas County entirely.  This new district has the potential for a very entertaining primary between Joe Barton, Louie Gohmert and Jeb Hensarling.  70% White, 10% African American, 16% Hispanic  Safe R

CD-6 which had a significant chunk of its population in the DFW metro area is now entirely rural.  69% White, 15% African American, 12% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-17 although this district is in Central Texas it shows up good in the East Texas pic.  I am one of the people who remains amazed at Chet Edwards-D ability to hold on to his heavily GOP district.  Unsure of how to protect him I only have a few choices since his district gained population so Bosque, Somervell, Madison and Grimes Counties have been removed from his district.  Waco and Byran/College Station are still within CD-17  This district is probably still a Toss-up as Edwards will have to work hard to maintain this seat.  67% White, 9% African American, 19% Hispanic

Greater Houston Area (the Rural/Suburban districts)

CD-33 is a rural district which extends from greater Houston to Bastrop Country which is southeast of Austin  which is a solid GOP seat.  61% White, 11% African American, 25% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-22 is now almost entirely contained within Fort Bent County with small pieces in Waller and West Harris County.  Obama barely lost Fort Bend County, and despite being a minority-majority district I think this seat stays GOP.  44% White, 17% African American, 24% Hispanic, 12% Asian  Likely R

CD-14 Ron Paul isn’t going anywhere.  56% White, 8% African American, 30% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-08 contains north suburban Houston, the district is largely split between the fast growing Montgomery County and North West Harris County. 71% White, 5% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Safe R

CD-02 Rural/suburban Houston contains Beaumont and Port Arthur.  62% White,, 18% African American, 15% Hispanic.  Safe R

Greater Houston (the Urban/Suburban districts)

CD-09 Now rests entirely within Harris County, other than a small extension to the west of CD-07 this district remains largely unchanged.  17% White, 32% African American, 36% Hispanic, 11% Asian.  Safe-D

CD-07 is now more Urban, it has essentially been shifted a big to the east which moves it a bit into south Houston.  The conservative west part of his district has been annexed by conservative CD-08.  46% White, 12% African American, 33% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Leans D

CD-18 and CD-29 were both redrawn to undo the ugliness of the previous districts.  CD-18 15% White, 30% African American, 49% Hispanic.  CD-29 17% White, 14% African American, 65% Hispanic.  Both remain safe D.  

CD-35 Contains a good chunk of the currently existing CD-22 and is on the cusp of being a minority-majority district. 53% White, 10% African American, 29% Hispanic, 4% Asian  Lean R

Travis County (Austin)

CD-10 Contains most of Austin.  54% White, 6% African American, 32% Hispanic, 5% Asian,  Safe D

CD-25 At first I thought I drew a GOP leaning seat here but it may be a Dem leaning seat.  This district contains the remainder of Austin as well as Round Rock, Georgetown and Cedar Park.  If Dems organize well enough this could very well be a Dem held seat.  56% White, 9% African American, 27% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Toss-up

Bexar County (San Antonio)

CD-21  This district is heavily Hispanic, much of this district is part of the former CD-23 and CD-20.  Ciro Rodriguez may opt to run here instead of CD-23 for reasons which will be clear when CD-23 is described. 29% White, 4% Black, 61% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-20  Central and South San Antonio, like CD-21 this district is heavily Hispanic. 30% White, 6% Black, 60% Hispanic  Safe D

South and Southwest Texas

CD-27 Remains largely unchanged, just tightened up because of the population increase in South Texas. 20% White, 2% African American, 75% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-15 Much of the Rio Grande Valley.  Safe D

CD-28 This guy extends from South San Antonio all the way down to Hidalgo county. 34% White, 6%, African American, 56% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-23 Laredo is back in this heavily Hispanic district.  82% Hispanic and 15% White makes this the most Hispanic district in the state.  

CD-16 In El Paso remains largely unchaged and is a bit more compacted.  Safe D

West and Central Texas

CD-13 A true West Texas district!  Contains the cities of Amarillo and Lubbock.  An interesting note about this district is that it is only 57% White, the remainder is 33% Hispanic and 5% African American.  I don’t know much about West Texas but I was expecting a much higher percentage of white folk.  However given the demise of the rural Democrats in Texas this district remains in the GOP hands.  Safe R

CD-19  Midland-Odessa and Abilene are the cities in this geographically huge district. 58% White, 5% African American, 33% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-11  This one encompasses a lot of Lamar Smiths former CD-21.  San Angelo and part of New Braunfels make up this heavily GOP district.  Loving County which is also the least populous County in the Country is also here. 68% White, 2 % African American, 26% Hispanic.  Stonewall, the birth place of President Lyndon Johnson is in this district.  Safe R

CD-31  Another rural conservative district located in Central Texas. 64% White, 12% African American, 18% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-04  Although this district is part of the DFW Metroplex it shows up nice on this image.  This district includes the northern parts of Denton and Collin County which are two of the fastest growing counties in the state.  At 78% White, 4% African American and 12% Hispanic this rural district is a GOP stronghold.  Contains Wichita Falls, Sherman and Denison, the later is the birthplace of President Dwight Eisenhower.  Safe R

DFW Metroplex

CD-36 This district which contains several Far North Dallas suburbs including McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Flower Mound and Denton is solid GOP all the way.  68% White, 7% African American, 17% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-12  The C shape of this district obviously stands rightly for “conservative”.  The most conservative parts of Americas second largest conservative urban county are here.  Conservative parts of south and west Arlington, West and North Tarrant County lock up this district as a solid GOP seat.  Safe R

CD-26 Situated in Central Fort Worth extending out into south Fort Worth and west into Arlington.  The Democratic Party would lock this one up. 37% White, 21% African American, 37% Hispanic.  Safe Dem

CD-24 This guy straddles the Dallas-Tarrant County line and is in an area of Dallas and Tarrant County where local Democrats have been having a lot of success in state House races the past few cycles.  42% White, 14% Black, 34% Hispanic.  Lean D

CD-30  This was the sole Democratic Representative in DFW after the redistricting of 2003.  CD-30 does remain the most African American in the state, however the district now grabs the conservative enclave of Highland Park in near the center of Dallas county. 25% White, 38% African American, 32% Hispanic.  Safe D

CD-03  Another district where local Democrats have been having great success at winning State House Seats.  42% White, 16% African American, 33% Hispanic and 6% Asian.  I really want classify this seat as Lean D but I don’t think it is quite there yet.  Toss-up

CD-34  Now the “What…” moment will be answered regarding this creatively drawn district.  This district is drawn to strengthen the Democratic presence in CD-32 and CD-03 by moving a lot of the strong GOP north Dallas areas into a safe GOP seat with Plano.  CD-34 cuts straight down into Dallas County and ropes up University Park, a conservative enclave just north of Highland Park.  Plano is one of the most conservative cities in the country and is almost entirely within this district. 64% White, 7% African American, 12% Hispanic, 12% Asian  Safe R

CD-32  This majority Hispanic district is now ready for to be picked up by a Dem.  Heavily Democratic portions of south Dallas are included and heavily GOP sections of north Dallas are included in CD-34.  28% White, 11% African American, 54% Hispanic.  Likely D

Exciting news, folks: Thanks to the hard work of Dave and Jeffmd, Dave’s Redistricting App now has political data for the state of New York. Just like with Maryland, when you create your new New York maps, you’ll be able to see the Obama-McCain percentage for each district.

With this new feature launched, SSP plans to hold a redistricting contest in the near future. Dave has asked, though, that everyone kick the tires a bit before we officially begin the contest. So head on over to the app and test out the new NY data – and then stay tuned for a more detailed announcement from us soon!

• CT-Sen: Joe Biden is stopping by Connecticut yet again to fill up Chris Dodd’s coffers with a fundraising event tomorrow. This comes against a backdrop of increasing questions from the press of whether or not Dodd will be retiring (or getting pushed out the door by the party)… suggesting the beginning of the same self-fulfilling downward spiral that dragged down Jim Bunning, who’d similarly worn down his welcome on the other side of the aisle.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio is making a strange ploy here, when the substance of his previous campaign has all been more-conservative-than-thou. He now says he would have accepted stimulus funds, had he been governor. Maybe he’s already thinking ahead to how he’ll have to moderate things, once he’s in the general?

• IL-Sen: With the Illinois primary fast-approaching, believe it or not, Alexi Giannoulias is hitting his cash stash to already go on the air with a second TV spot, again focusing on his jobs-saving efforts. On the GOP side, it looks like Rep. Mark Kirk‘s frequent flip-flopping is starting to catch the attention of the legacy media; the Sun-Times and AP are taking notice of his new McCain-ish attempts to harp on earmarks despite his own earmark-friendly past.

• NV-Sen: Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, recently cleared on corruption charges, had previously said that he wouldn’t seek to challenge Harry Reid in the Senate race. Now sources are saying Krolicki is, in fact, “interested.” It’s unclear whether Krolicki sustained an unfixable amount of damage as a result of the charges, though, or what sort of space he could seek to carve out in the already overcrowded GOP primary field.

• SD-Sen: You might recall a while back we noted that Matt McGovern, a clean energy activist, was considering a run to follow in his grandfather George’s footsteps in the Senate. Today he declined a run, leaving the Democrats without any candidate to go up against John Thune next year.

• TX-Sen: South Carolina’s Jim DeMint, increasingly the go-to guy for right-wing kingmaking, issued his fourth endorsement in a Senate primary, although this is the primary that may or may not ever happen. He gave his imprimatur to Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, who’s been a darling of the rightosphere but who’s polled in the single-digits in the few polls of the special election field.

• MN-Gov: Here’s a fundraising boost to state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, who has lots of behind-the-scenes support in her DFL gubernatorial bid but a big name rec deficit against names like former Sen. Mark Dayton and Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak. She secured an EMILY’s List endorsement, giving her a nationwide base to tap into.

• SC-Gov: Mark Sanford may have dodged his final bullet, allowing him to serve out his last year in ignominious peace. A 7-member state House Judiciary subcommittee voted 6-1 against impeachment and instead unanimously for censure. The matter still goes before the full Judiciary committee, but they seem unlikely to reverse course.

• Governors: PPP has one of their frequent good observations: of the nation’s governors who have the worst approval ratings, most of them are ineligible or not planning to run for re-election in 2010 (Baldacci, Doyle, Perdue, Rendell, Schwarzenegger). The three who are running for re-election next year are all likely casualties in their own primaries (Brewer, Gibbons, and Paterson).

• FL-12: Outgoing Rep. Adam Putnam, who’s leaving his job to run for Florida’s Ag Commissioner, has given his endorsement to former state Rep. Dennis Ross to replace him. It’s something of a formality, with no other major GOPers in the race, but should help keep anyone else from last-minute gate-crasing.

• IL-10: Lots of endorsements in the 10th. On the GOP side, state Rep. Beth Coulson got the endorsement of moderate ex-Gov. Jim Edgar, the state’s only recent ex-Gov who’s still on the right side of the law. For the Dems, Dan Seals got the endorsement of the powerful New Trier Township Democrats, while state Rep. Julie Hamos was endorsed by Citizen Action.

• IL-14: Recent dropout Mark Vargas finally confirmed that he’ll be pulling his name off the ballot, leaving only the two biggest names. This comes as a relief to the camp of state Sen. Randy Hultgren, who were worried that name of Vargas (who endorsed Ethan Hastert) would stay on the ballot to split the anti-Hastert vote.

• LA-03: Wondering why no one prominent is leaping at the chance to fill the open seat left behind by Charlie Melancon? They know what we redistricting nerds at SSP already know… that seat is likely to vaporize in 2012, leaving any victory a short-lived booby prize. No elected officials of either party have thrown their hat in yet; attorney Ravi Sangisetty and oil field manager Kristian Magar are the only Dem and GOPer, respectively, who’ve gotten in.

• MN-07: Long-time Rep. Collin Peterson says he won’t decide until February on whether to run for re-election (although he has filed his paperwork to run). That may have a few hearts skipping a beat at the DCCC, where a Peterson retirement would leave another GOP-leaning rural seat to defend — but Peterson says a late decision on sticking around is always standard operating procedure for him.

• NY-19: An initially generic Roll Call profile of Nan Hayworth, the moderate, wealthy ophthalmologist who’s the last GOPer left to go up against Rep. John Hall after more conservative and polarizing Assemblyman Greg Ball dropped out, has some interesting dirt buried deep in the article. They say that county-level party officials aren’t necessarily behind her, that there are three other (unnamed) persons interested in running, and there’s still a movement afoot in the district to get Ball back in the race.

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi, the underdog gaining steam in the Dem primary in the 6th, got an endorsement from a key moderate in the Pennsylvania delegation: the 10th district’s Chris Carney. Doug Pike got his own Congressional endorsement too, although from a little further afield: from Massachusetts’s Niki Tsongas. There are also rumors of a third potential Dem entrant to complicate matters: Lower Merion Township Commissioner Brian Gordon (not to be confused with his commission-mate Scott Zelov, who’s now considering a run on the GOP side).

• TN-08: State Rep. Jimmy Naifeh confirmed that he won’t run in a Democratic primary against state Sen. Roy Herron to take over retiring Rep. John Tanner’s seat. Naifeh, the House speaker for 18 years, is a legendary figure in Tennessee politics and would have posed a big challenge to Herron. Meanwhile, in a sign of their optimism, the NRCC bumped their farmer/gospel singer candidate, Stephen Fincher, up a slot in their three-tiered “Young Guns” program, from “On the Radar” up to “Contender.”

• VA-02, VA-05: The two top contenders in the GOP primary in the 2nd have already had one big proxy fight, backing different candidates in the Dec. 5 primary for an open, dark-red state Senate seat in Virginia Beach. Auto dealer Scott Rigell apparently won the skirmish, backing Jeff McWaters, who defeated Virginia Beach city councilor Rosemary Wilson, who was backed by businessman Ben Loyola. Loyola is running to the right of Rigell (who contributed to Barack Obama last year). Meanwhile, in the 2nd and the 5th, the GOP is faced with the same decision that often bedevils them: pick a nominee by primary election, party canvass, or party convention? With state Sen. Rob Hurt a strong general election contender in the 5th but generating suspicions among the base (for voting for Mark Warner’s tax hike), and with activist-dominated conventions often yielding unelectable candidates (see Gilmore, Jim), the decision can affect the GOP’s general election chances in each one.

• WA-01: Spunky Microserf rides to the rescue, against an entrenched, well-liked suburban Representative… on behalf of the GOP? That’s what’s up in the 1st, where never-before-elected Microsoft veteran James Watkins will go up against Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee, who’s had little trouble holding down the Dem-leaning district.

• NY-Comptroller: The New York Post (so keep the salt shaker handy) is reporting that ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer is still interested in a return to politics, and is looking seriously at the Comptroller’s race. It seemed up in the air as to whether he’d run in the Democratic primary against appointed incumbent Tom DiNapoli (also under reported primary threat from William Thompson) or as an independent.

• GA-St. Sen.: A famous family name is looking to get back into Georgia politics. Jimmy Carter’s grandson, 34-year-old attorney Jason Carter, is looking to run in the upcoming special election in the 42nd Senate district, a reliably Democratic area in western DeKalb County where current Senator David Adelman is resigning to become Ambassador to Singapore. Interestingly, Carter may run into trouble with the district’s large Jewish population, where his grandfather’s name has lost some of its luster because of his pronouncements on the Israel/Palestine saga.

• Mayors: In what seems like an astonishingly fast recount, state Sen. Kasim Reed was confirmed as victor in the Atlanta mayoral race. He defeated city councilor Mary Norwood by 714 votes, losing a grand total of one vote from the original count. Norwood has now conceded.

• House: Here’s a concept from the 70s we don’t hear much about anymore: the “misery index.” But Republican pollster POS dusted off the idea, looking at 13 “change” midterm elections where the average Election Day misery index (unemployment plus inflation) was 10.1, and in which the average loss among the White House party was 26 seats. They point out that today’s misery index is 10.02 (although, assuming unemployment declines over the next year, so too will the misery index).

• Redistricting: Moves are afoot in two different states to make the redistricting process fairer. In Illinois, a statewide petition drive is underway to take redistricting out of hands of the legislature and give it to an independent commission. And in Florida, as we’ve discussed before, two initiatives are on their way to the ballot that would require districts to be compact and not take partisanship into account. The GOP-held legislature is challenging them, however, in the state Supreme Court; part of their argument is that this runs afoul of the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision on “crossover” districts in Bartlett v. Strickland.

New York State now has partisan data in Daves Redistricting! Thanks to jeffmd for the ton of work he did to make this happen. Please read below the fold before trying this!

Jeffmd created all new shapefiles for New York voting districts. The population numbers are 2010 estimates (gleaned by Jeff from available data), so there’s no need to check “Use new population estimates.” And the partisan data (2008 presidential election) was put together by Jeff to match those districts.

To access this new data, you need to check the “Use Test Data” checkbox in the upper right corner of the app before selecting New York State. (Because the data format is different than I have been using, I’ve separated it into a separate directory on the server.)

Warning: the shapefiles file is very large (17MB). (Texas has the next largest at 7MB.) So it will take minutes to load — go get coffee.

As most of you know, NY will almost definitely lose 1 CD after 2010. I started trying to build a new plan (as I tested out the new data and software changes). Quite a challenge. You already have various minority majority districts in the NYC area (Black majority as well as Hispanic majority). Keeping those balanced correctly while shifting to accomodate 1 fewer district will be a challenge. (And interesting to see neighborhoods in Brooklyn where McCain kicked butt — those of you from the city understand this much better than an outsider like me.) Now, the Hispanic demographic is not broken down further, which could hinder your job. The Census Bureau does have this data and I may be able to make that change in the future, but for now, this is what we have.

Enjoy redistricting NY. Don’t stay up too late and jeopordize your job or marriage!

Update: I uploaded a new version of the app and I think you are going to like this!

(1) Fixed percentages so that they are calculated by rounding. This was simply my coding error.

(2) Made the sizes of the CD labels smaller for the smaller districts. Especially good for NYC.

(3) Made it so you can drag the new CD labels where you want them! Woohoo!

It looks like the Democrats aren’t wasting any time lining up a successor to retiring Rep. Brian Baird either:

The party quickly landed a well-regarded candidate in state Rep. Deb Wallace, who announced her campaign this morning. A legislator with experience winning in the most politically-competitive part of the district (Clark County), she sports high marks from the National Rifle Association and environmental groups alike….

In a brief interview with POLITICO hours after Baird’s announcement, Van Hollen singled out Wallace as a “terrific candidate” with other Democratic candidates likely to enter the race.

The article makes clear that the “other candidates” are state Sen. Mike Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Brendan Williams, both of whom were repeatedly mentioned yesterday — meaning we could be looking at a contested primary. Wallace, who represents the swingy (R+1) 17th LD in Vancouver’s suburbs, sounds reminscent of pro-gun, pro-environment ex-Rep. Jolene Unsoeld, who represented the 3rd from 1988 until getting wiped out in 1994. (Pridemore and Williams are from bluer turf — Pridemore from central Vancouver, and Williams from Olympia.)

RaceTracker Wiki: WA-03

Rasmussen (12/8, likely voters, 10/13 in parentheses) (primary release):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (40)

Pat Toomey (R): 46 (45)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 8 (9)

Joe Sestak (D): 38 (38)

Pat Toomey (R): 44 (37)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 13 (19)

(MoE: ±3%)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (46)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (42)

Other: 3 (2)

Not sure: 14 (10)

(MoE: ±5%)

Arlen Specter’s numbers against ex-Rep. Pat Toomey haven’t changed much from October, which isn’t good news. What has changed here is that, unlike October, where Rep. Joe Sestak led Toomey by a point, Sestak now trails Toomey by 6, making it harder for Sestak to make the argument he’ll perform better vis-a-vis Toomey. Specter’s numbers are pretty locked-in, though, with only 6% of all voters having no opinion of him, compared with 19% for Toomey and 26% for Sestak.

On the Democratic primary front, the single-digit gap between Specter and Sestak from October (the smallest yet seen in the race) is back to 13. Specter actually has pretty good approvals among Dems, maybe thanks to his race to the left (66/25). Sestak is at 48/22, but that leaves 25% not sure, giving him a lot more of a ceiling for growth.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen

In another setback for the bean-counters over at the DCCC, Democrats will have to defend yet another competitive open seat next year. Tim Sahd has the scoop:

Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) announced his retirement tonight, becoming the third Dem in a vulnerable seat to announce his departure in the last few weeks. “The time has now come to pursue other options, other ways of serving. Hence, I am announcing today that I do not intend to seek reelection to Congress in 2010,” Baird wrote in a statement. “This is not an easy decision to be sure, but I believe it is the right decision at the right time.”

The CD, with a Cook PVI of EVEN, is a very fertile open seat for GOPers to attack. Washougal City Councilor Jon Russell (R) and WA House GOP caucus ex-CoS David Castillo (R) were already running and prepared to face Baird. Several new candidates are likely to emerge.

Obama carried this district by a 52-46 margin, but Bush won it twice by two-point spreads in both 2004 and 2000. There’s no word yet on who Democrats plan to recruit here, but I would expect big moves on both sides of the fence in the coming days.

UPDATE: Reid teases a few potential Dem names:

Dem sources, meanwhile, believe state Sen. Craig Pridemore (D) and state Rep. Brendan Williams (D) are potential candidates to replace Baird. Pridemore is from Vancouver, and Williams is from northern Thurston Co.

ANOTHER UPDATE (Crisitunity): On the Dem side, it’ll probably be Pridemore. He wouldn’t have to give up his state Sen. seat to run in 2010. He has the advantage of being from Vancouver, increasingly the district’s population center. He’s an Army vet and pretty well-liked. On the GOP side, I’d bet on state Sen. Don Benton, also from Vancouver, who ran against Baird in 1998 when it was an open seat and got to 45%. Benton also gets a free shot in 2010. Another possibility is state Sen. Joe Zarelli, who also ran against Baird (in 2002) but only got to 38%, which is what generic wingnut is usual good for in that district. One other possibility is state House minority leader Richard DeBolt, from Centralia in the middle of the district. The article also mentions state Rep. Jaime Herrera, who’s a former aide to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and who already seems to be moving to get into the race.

EXTRA UPDATE (David): The New York Times just had a story the other day profiling Vancouver, WA – and how the city often gets confused with its Canadian neighbor in the same region.

GOP UPDATE (David): Republican state Rep. Jaime Herrera has already said she’ll run. The 31-year-old Herrera is a former aide to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers and was appointed to fill a vacant state House seat in 2007, which she won outright last year. Politico calls the seat “competitive,” but according the Swing State Project’s in-house analysis of presidential results at the legislative level in Washington, this district has a 2008 PVI of R+6, making it the tenth-most Republican in the state (out of 49). It went for Bush 57-42 and McCain 52-47. There are already a few GOPers already in the race, so it remains to be seen whether Herrera will clear the primary.

Dem Update (David): Hotline says their sources are suggesting a couple of other potential names: Clark Co. Commis. Steve Stuart (D) and Rep. Deb Wallace (D).

One Last Update (Crisitunity): The only electoral opponent Herrera has ever faced was a Democratic unknown in 2008, whom she defeated 60-40 in both the top 2 primary and the general. She’s never faced off against another Republican; as remarked above, she was appointed to her position in 2007 (Washington fills legislative vacancies by appointment rather than by fast special election)… after Republican state Rep. Richard Curtis had to resign after a little gay escort scandal.

RaceTracker Wiki: WA-03