Swing State Project

2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont announced today that he’s filing papers this afternoon for a possible run for governor in 2010.  

Excerpt from his e-mail blast and website announcement:

Since the 2006 campaign for Senate, I have continued to meet with citizens across our state – as co-chairman of the Obama campaign in Connecticut, founder of a state policy institute at Central Connecticut State University, and as an oustpoken advocate for health care reform. I have been constantly reminded during these conversations that Connecticut is not living up to its potential and that too many of our families are still being left behind.

Whether it has been health care and the economy, losing jobs, young people leaving the state, or the never-ending budget crisis, we have all seen our state head in the wrong direction.

Simply put, Connecticut’s current Chief Executive is not getting the job done.

Governor Jodi Rell’s approval rating has come down quite a bit this year, but she’s still at 57 percent approve/38 percent disapprove in the Pollster.com average. Then again, Lamont didn’t shy away from a longshot campaign in 2006, so he may be ready for another challenge.

I’d like to hear from SSP readers who are familiar with Connecticut politics. Could Lamont make a race of this? Would he be the strongest potential challenger against Rell? How would having him in the governor’s race affect Senator Chris Dodd’s re-election campaign?

New York: In NY-23, we lost, apparently because the conservatives won, because in their brave new world winning no longer means earning more votes than the other candidates, but rather defeating the candidate that will vote with you most of the time in order to pave the way for the candidate who would theoretically vote with you all the time but has no chance of getting elected in your swing district. I quake in fear of next November, when conservatives will enjoy the mightiest of all glorious historic victories, with the crushing general election losses of Marco Rubio, Chuck DeVore, Rand Paul, Ovide Lamontagne, Sharron Angle, Christine O’Donnell, Peter Schiff, Chuck Purgason, Ken Buck, and Patrick Hughes, thus purifying the soil for decades to come.

Uh, more specifically, in NY-23, Bill Owens (D) defeated Doug Hoffman (C) and Dede Scozzafava (R), 49-45-6, with about a 6,000 vote margin (out of 131,000) separating Owens and Hoffman.

Elsewhere in New York, two powerful incumbents got scares. New York City’s I/R mayor Michael Bloomberg beat Democratic comptroller William Thompson by a much narrower-than-expected margin: 51-46. And Democratic Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi is barely leading Republican Ed Mangano, 48-48 (with a 237-vote margin, which may change as absentees are counted). Republicans picked up two open New York City council seats in Queens (including the one vacated by new comptroller John Liu), bringing the Democrats’ control of that body down to a perilous 46-5.

New Jersey: Republican former US Attorney Chris Christie defeated Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine in the Republicans’ big score of the night, beating Corzine and independent Chris Daggett 49-44-6. The big story here may be the unexpected collapse in Daggett’s numbers (he had been polling near 20% several weeks ago); I’d guess that a swath of moderate but fervently anti-Corzine voters realized that they were planning to waste their votes on a spoiler (Daggett) and in the end held their noses and voted for Christie. The other big story: the robo-pollsters (PPP, SurveyUSA) not only getting the result right but coming close on the spread, while some of the more traditional pollsters saw a Corzine victory. Christie’s amply-cut jacket didn’t have much in the way of coattails, though: Republicans picked up a total of only one seat in the Assembly, with Domenick DiCicco poised to pick up an open seat in Gloucester County in Philly’s suburbs, leaving Dems in control of the chamber, 47-33.

Virginia: Here’s where the Democrats really stunk it up, although the handwriting on the wall could be clearly seen from months away. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Creigh Deeds by a substantial margin, 59-41. Further down the ticket, Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling was re-elected over Jody Wagner, 56-44, and Republican Ken Cuccinelli won the AG’s race over Steve Shannon, 58-42. Democrats also took some damage in the House of Delegates, although they seemed to stave off total wipeout: Republicans netted five seats, to move the total from 53 (and 2 GOP-caucusing indies)-45 (with 2 formerly Dem vacancies) to 58 (plus the 2 indies)-39 (with one Dem incumbent-held seat, the 21st, going to recount).

Maine: In what seemed to be the night’s biggest heartbreak for many in the netroots, Question 1, a vote to repeal gay marriage, passed by a 53-47 margin. Nevertheless, Mainers defeated an anti-tax initiative (Question 4, 40-60) and expanded medical marijuana access (Question 5, 59-41).

Washington: In the nation’s other corner, Referendum 71, a vote to approve legislation creating “marriage in all but name” expanded domestic partnerships, is passing 51-49. (Assuming it passes, this would be, by my reckoning, the first time gay rights have been expanded through statewide vote; since King County has reported disproportionately few of the state’s ballots, that margin is likely to grow.) Washington also rejected anti-tax I-1033, 44-56, and King County elected Dow Constantine as County Executive by a comfortable 57-43 over Susan Hutchison (in the first time this has been run as a nonpartisan race — unfortunately for Hutchison, somewhere in the last few weeks her Republican cover got blown). The Seattle mayor’s race will probably be the last race in the country to get resolved: with less than half reporting, anti-establishment progressive Mike McGinn leads establishment progressive Joe Mallahan 50-49.

California: In the night’s other House election, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi defeated Republican attorney David Harmer in CA-10, 53-43 (with the balance going to Green and Peace & Freedom candidates). That’s a bit underwhelming in a district where Barack Obama won 65-33, but in a low-turnout special, it’s not remarkable.

North Carolina: Charlotte got only its second African-American mayor and its first Democratic mayor in 22 years, as 38-year-old Anthony Foxx beat the polls en route to a 51-49 over Republican Andy Lassiter. Democrats also now have an 8-3 edge on the city council. College town Chapel Hill now has an openly gay mayor: Mark Kleinschmidt, who narrowly defeated conservative Matt Czajkowski, 49-47.

Ohio: Somehow I can’t see Cleveland becoming the next Las Vegas (maybe $pringfield, Ohio will), but Ohio voters just opted to legalize casino gambling in Issue 3, 53-47.

Pennsylvania: Republicans picked up a seat on the state Supreme Court; Jane Orie Melvin defeated Democrat Jack Panella 53-47. The GOP now controls the court 4-3, which has bad implications for state legislative redistricting next year.

Michigan: Another Dem screw-up that may bury the prospect of a pro-Democratic gerrymander in Michigan next year is a loss in the one hotly contested state Senate seat anywhere last night. In SD-19, Republican Mike Nofs won 61-34, picking up a seat formerly held by Democratic now-Rep. Mark Schauer. Republicans now control the Senate 22-16 (all seats are up in 2010, meaning Dems now need to flip four for control — of course, they’d also need to hold the gubernatorial race, which may not happen either). In Detroit, incumbent Dave Bing held on to win the mayor’s race, 58-42.

Georgia: We’re headed to a runoff in Atlanta, where city councilor Mary Norwood and state Senator Kasim Reed finished 1 and 2, with 46% and 36% respectively. Reed may be able to pull it out, though, if he consolidates African-American votes in the general (the 3rd place finisher, Lisa Borders with 14%, is also African-American). The most interesting legislative race seems to be the previously Dem-held HD-141, where it’s unclear whether Dem Darrell Black or GOPer Angela Gheesling-McCommon (each of whom got 23%, although Black has a 16-vote edge) will face off against independent Rusty Kidd (who got 44%) in the runoff.

Got any other races you want to share results from, or want to talk about? Let us know in the comments!

Filing closed on Monday in Illinois; the first state to do so in this cycle.

How many of Illinois’s 19 Districts did we file candidates for?

Below the fold for all the juicy details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

But before you do rejoice in the following sentence: “Congratulations Congressman Owens!” How fantastic does it feel to say that?

As most of us know Illinois has 19 Congressional Districts – 12 Dem and 7 Repub.

At the close of candidate filing we had candidates in all 19 Districts – woo hoo. Whilst this can reasonably be expected in a Blue State it is a good start nonetheless.

As for Team GOP – well they didn’t do so well. They dredged up candidates in only 17/19 Districts. Consequently Congressmen Rush and Gutierrez have only Green Party opponents to overcome in the 1st and 4th. Rush has to fend off three primary challengers first though.

Some thoughts about various challengers; ours and theirs.

Democrats:

11 incumbents 8 challenged districts:

6th – Ben Lowe has bobbed up at the last minute and seems destined to be 3rd tier frustratingly enough.

10th – BARNBURNER – Will it be Seals or Hamos? With the Repubs fielding their best possible candidate in Coulson (assuming she makes through the primary) either Seals or Hamos will have their work cut out for them. One of the top Democratic targets in the country. My money is on Seals (I volunteered for him in 2008) to bring this Kerry/Obama Repub district back home in 2010

13th – Scott Harper held Biggert to 53% in 2008 and if there is even a mild pro democratic environment he may well make this race super competitive. Has to seriously step up his fundraising as he had only 54k COH as at the end of September. Top tier candidate in a 2nd tier race. 2nd top Democratic target in Illinois

15th – David Gill who ran in 2004 & 2006 is back again. In the Democratic tsunami of 2006 he managed all of 42% and there is no reason to assume he will do any better this time with only 12K COH as at the end of September. 3rd tier candidate alas.

16th – It’s always good to have a local mayor step up to the plate. In this case it is Freeport Mayor George Gaulrapp. He has only been in the race for a few weeks so we will have to wait and see. 2nd tier candidate.

18th – Is Gulf War veteran Carl Ray the man to deliver the Schock required to win this district? Not with $241 COH he aint (But to be fair he hasn’t been in the race long). 3rd tier candidate.

19th – Is clean government campaigner Tim Bagwell the man to take on and beat Shimkus. No he isn’t as his last minute filing would seem to indicate. 3rd tier candidate.

Now for the Repubs:

7 Incumbents, 10 challenged districts.

1st, 4th – NO CANDIDATE – heh

2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 12th, 17th – 3rd tier no-names.

8th – All 6 of the Repubs here seem to be no better than 3rd tier. Looks like Bean will cruise here. Of the 6 Repubs only Rodriguez seems to be of any quality.

11th – Kinzinger seems to be top tier. With 151k COH and being an Iraq war veteran he may be a threat to frosh Halvorson – but i doubt it. Race to watch.

14th – With 5 Repubs running expect a bloody Primary. If as expected establishment choice Ethan Hastert emerges then he will give Foster a real challenge. With 313k COH Hastert has to be considered top tier.

From here it is off to Texas where filing closes on January 4th. We are not travelling well here at all vis a vis candidate recruitment but you will have to wait for my next diary, due in the next week to read about that.

In regards to New York what a stunning result in the 23rd. Who would have thunk that there would be only 2 Republican in the 29 New York Congressional House Delegation. WOW

Surely now the party has to step up and recruit top tier challengers to the last two hold outs – Pete King in the 3rd and Chris Lee in the 26th. This is all the more important given that the Democratic held 29th is more Republican than both of them!  

SD-01 (R): Former State Rep. Buddy Carter (R) creams former Chatham County Commission Chair Billy Hair (R) 82.1% to 17.9%. I figured Carter would win, but I had no idea it would be that lopsided.

SD-35 (D): There will be a runoff, we just don’t know which two of the four million nine candidates (all Democrats) will be on the ballot.  With 69% of the vote in, the three most likely candidates seem to be former State Senator Donzella James, Torrey Johnson (my favorite), and Benny Crane. EDIT: As I’ve been writing this, the AP has called the race for a James-Torrey Johnson runoff.

HD-58 (D): The AP is calling a runoff between Democrats Asha Jackson (my least favorite of the four Democrats in the race) and Simone Bell (who would be the second openly gay member of the General Assembly ever and the first from a racial minority and my favorite for mostly unrelated reasons).  

HD-75 (D): Democratic prodigal son (he’s a bastard child) Ron Dodson has reclaimed his seat, defeating Republican Shawn James 60.1-39.9.  In a night we’re we seem to be fucking ourselves, we do it again.  Dodson left the party before, works for big healthcare, says his biggest goal is tort reform, had failing ratings on the environment, and was for the gay marriage ban.

HD-129 (R): In the all-Republican special, Kip Smith barely missed an outright win in his father’s former seat and will now face total wingnut Steve Earles in the runoff.  The guy that seemed the least of four evils came in third.  Smith is bad but Earles is a complete nut.

HD-141 (D): We should be thankful for crazy splinter Republicans.  Political neophyte, wingnut, and recent college grad Casey Tucker siphoned over 500 votes from the more established Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon.  As it stands now, she and Democrat Darrell Black are separated by sixteen votes (with Black leading) for the right to face indepedent Rusty Kidd in the runoff.

HD-159 (R): The race to replace the aforementioned Buddy Carter wasn’t a race at all, like I expected.  Former State Rep. Ann Purcell (whom Carter unseated in the primary) defeated fellow Republican and self-professed “true conservative” Jesse Tyler 79.2-20.8

The runoffs for SD-35, HD-58, HD-129, and HD-141 (and Atlanta Mayor) will be on December 1.  A more thorough rundown of the candidates and districts can be found here.

2:50PM: Well, at some point in the last half hour or so, CA-10 got called in favor of John Garamendi. With not much else left to talk about, we’ll wrap it up here. A disappointing night on the balance, although certainly with its surprising bright spots (some of which are also hilarious and teabagger-enraging, like NY-23).

2:07AM: You’re probably out there thinking, “Hey, you promised us results on the House race in Washington’s LD-16!” Unfortunately, the GOP picked that one up. At about R+16 (centered on Walla Walla in eastern Washington), it was by far the reddest seat held by a Dem in the state legislature; long-time Dem Bill Grant died earlier in the year, but his daughter Laura Grant was unable to hold it against GOPer Terry Nealey, 58-42. Dems still are in firm control of the state House, 61-37.

1:57AM: If you’re wondering what happened in all those legislative special elections in Georgia, TheUnknown285 tells you all about it in the diaries.

1:45AM: Assorted good news and bad news. The good news is that Tom Suozzi finally pulled it out in Nassau County, winning by 200-odd votes. The bad news is that the Dems totally dropped the ball in Michigan on that state Senate seat (SD-19, the one that Mark Schauer vacated). GOPer Mike Nofs picked it up easily, 61-34. That boosts the GOP’s edge to 22-16 in the chamber, making it that much harder to flip come 2010 (a key target for redistricting purposes). Also in Michigan, Detroit mayor Dave Bing survived his re-election, although maybe by a closer margin than anticipated (58-42 against Tom Barrow). With Kevin Johnson ensconced in Sacramento, hopefully soon we can field a starting five of NBA guards turned big-city mayors. Can we get Walt Frazier to run for NYC mayor next time?

1:35AM: They’re taking their sweet time in CA-10. Not that it matters. With 51% reporting, it’s still Garamendi 55, Harmer 40.

1:29AM: Couple other odds and ends from Pennsylvania. Wunderkind Pittsburgh mayor Luke Ravenstahl won re-election without much trouble, getting 55% of the vote against two challengers, including Franco Harris (son of the similarly-named Steelers legend), running as an indie, who pulled in 15%. And in Harrisburg, PA, the Democrat, Linda Thompson won a contested race, 55-45.

1:21AM: The AP now seems to be calling the race in Maine, for the side of evil. The numbers still are at 87% reporting, with it passing 53-47. On the plus side, it’s shaping up to be a good night for pot — Maine’s Question 4, which expands medical marijuana (including state dispensaries), passed 59-41. Maine’s own anti-tax TABOR-style initiative also went down to defeat, 60-40. So: Maine likes pot and taxes. Gays and lesbians, not so much.

1:09AM: Still bad news in Maine; with 86% reporting, the spread grew a tiny bit more on Question 1. “Yes” (i.e. against gay marriage) now leads 53-47.

1:06AM: This definitely calls for a ganja break. The tiny Colorado town of Breckinridge just, via initiative, legalized the possession of up to one ounce of marijuana, plus paraphernalia. 72% voted yes.

12:57AM: There’s one more barnburner that wasn’t on anybody’s radar screen: Tom Suozzi, the Democratic Nassau County Exec (1.5 million people on Lon Gisland), is barely winning reelection. He’s up 48-48, with a 400-vote margin, with 99% reporting (only 10 precincts left). If he wins, he’ll owe his survival to a Constitution Party candidate sucking up votes on the right. Assuming he squeaks through (and that depends on where those last 10 precincts are… hopefully not Massapequa) this may dim his luster a bit; he was seeming likely to run for AG assuming Cuomo vacated to run for Gov.

12:45AM: Here’s a hot mayor’s race I don’t think we’ve mentioned yet. Bill Foster, the more conservative option, beat Kathleen Ford 52-47 in St. Petersburg, Florida.

12:38AM: We’re headed to a runoff in Houston; that was expected. City controller Annise Parker leads at 31%, and she’ll face off against former city attorney Gene Locke, who got 26%.

12:33AM: You know, Chris Christie didn’t seem to have much in the way of coattails. It looks like the GOP only netted one Assembly seat in New Jersey. McDonnell did a little more damage in Virginia, pulling along the LG and AG (Bolling and Kooky Cuccinelli); the net GOP gain in Virginia was 5, which seems to move the GOP’s advantage in the House of Delegates to 60 (including 2 R-leaning indies) to 40. (That might be off by 1, someone correct me if I’m wrong.) (UPDATE at 1AM: NLS says it’s 60-39, with one race still not called.)

12:20AM: Good news from Washington, although R-71 is still closer than I’d like. R-71 is being approved (contra the Maine initiative, ‘yes’ is the vote for tolerance here), 52-48. I-1033 (a TABOR-style anti-tax initiative from unstoppable initiative huckster Tim Eyman) is getting its butt kicked, 44-56. And King County Executive is staying in Democratic hands, as Dow Constantine is beating quasi-Republican Susan Hutchison 57-43. Seattle mayor, though, is paper-thin: contrary to polls, Mike McGinn is leading (he probably has lots of cellphone-only voters), but only 50-49.

12:18AM: Let’s kick it west coast. In CA-10, we’re only up to 29% reporting, and the numbers haven’t changed much. Garamendi leads Harmer 56-40. Looks like Garamendi got most of the last minute deciders (based on that 50-40 poll). So that’s two nice upgrades in the House (from McHugh to Owens, and from Tauscher to Garamendi).

12:16AM: Of course, it’s all ACORN’s fault.

12:15AM: More good news from the comments: Hoffman has apparently conceded in the 23rd. Thus sparing us the agony of a NY-20 style drawn-out recount process, and we won’t have to wonder about those malfunctioning St. Lawrence County machines. Cue the sound of a million wingnut heads ‘sploding.

12:07AM: Bad news from the comments: the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race has been called for the Republican (Jane Orie Melvin). This looks like it’ll hand the advantage in state legislative redistricting to the GOP for 2010.

12:05AM: Thanks to DavidNYC for handling all the hard stuff; I’ll be working the late shift and the west coast stories. Let’s start the new thread with some good news. Reportedly Fox has called NY-23 for Bill Owens. Who would have ever thunk that we could pick up the 23rd at the same time as we’re losing NJ-Gov?

12:05AM: Please join us in the new thread.

11:49PM: Mark Kleinschmidt narrowly beat Matt Czajkowski for the mayoral job in Chapel Hill, NC.

11:46PM: Oh, yeah, so the NYC mayoral race was officially called for Bloombo, but it wound up being close – just five points. A lot of people are going to have a lot of ‘splainin’ to do tomorrow.

11:44PM: 85% tallied and Owens still leads 49-45 – about 4,200 votes.

11:41PM: Democrat Anthony Foxx looks to have won the Charlotte mayor’s race by a little more than 3,000 votes. (All precincts are in.)

11:39PM: Out in California’s 10th CD, John Garamendi is up 56-40 with 22% in.

11:35PM: Taegan Goddard says that there are 10K absentees in NY-23.

11:31PM: Good guys with a narrow lead on Washington’s Ref. 71, 52-48. But remember, it can take a long time (even weeks) to count the vote in Washington.

11:28PM: Bad guys pull ahead, 51.6 to 48.4 in Maine.

11:27PM: Also in the NYC burbs, incumbent Dem Andy Spano (Westchester Co. Exec.) is getting destroyed, 58-42. Did anyone see that coming? Down in Hotlanta, Norwood is holding a lead at 45, with Reed at 37. This one looks headed to a run-off.

11:23PM: Ambitious Nassau County (Long Island) Executive Tom Suozzi is leading his Republican challenger by just 1% with half the vote counted. Suozzi would probably run for AG if Cuomo runs for governor – wonder if this might put a crimp in his plans.

11:22PM: Reid Wilson of The Hill: “Several GOP sources telling me they expect Bill Owens (D) to win NY23.”

11:00PM: We are down 52-48 in that PA Sup. Ct. race – 83% reporting. Not good.

10:57PM: A bright ray of sunshine? Owens leading 49-46 with two thirds in.

10:44PM: Dave Weigel says: “WHOA – Hoffman splitting Madison County, where he was leading 2-1 in Siena Poll. Getting ready to say ‘Congressman Bill Owens.'” You can get county results here.

10:33PM: The good guys have won in Kalamazoo.

10:43: Time for some more thread.

10:25PM: Shades of Florida 2000: Apparently, NBC has retracted its call on NYC-Mayor, but the NYT is still loud-n-proud. Bloombo’s lead has widended a bit, with three-quarters of the vote now reporting. But barring some late, wild changes, this is going to be a major story – how all the polls were so wildly wrong (and so many of them, too!), and how establishment Democrats failed to support one of their own.

10:21PM: Dems win a special election in Alabama, taking HD-65 by a 53-47 margin, which was quite a bit closer than expected.

10:17PM: Up in Maine, gay marraige is holding on by 51-49 with 22% in.

10:16PM: With 27% in, Bill Owens is up 51-44-5.

10:13PM: The AP is calling NJ-Gov for Chris Christie.

10:11PM: Man. Bill Thompson is only 0.5% back with over half the vote recorded. What is going on here?

10:07PM: As I’d suspected, Corzine is overperforming a bit in the north and Christie is overperforming in the south. (Maybe those LG picks actually made a difference, too.) Corzine is 49/48 in Bergen (should be 42/47 according to baselines), 68/27 in Essex (should be 64/25), 68/27 in Hudson (should be 61/28), and 52/43 in Passaic (should be 48/41). But Christie is cleaning up down the shore: 31/62 in Monmouth (should be 35/53), 28/66 in Ocean (should be 28/60), and unfortunately, in blue Camden County, where it’s 52/42 (should be 55/33). This balances out to a very close race, but it looks like it’s shading toward Christie.

10:05PM: In NY-23, Owens is still leading even at 15% reporting. He’s at 51%, with Hoffman at 45 and Dede at 5.

9:47PM: NYT calls the NYC mayoral race for Bloombo. Jesus. More than half my adult life has been spent under Republican mayors in NYC, and that ratio is about to get worse. The Times must really know something, though – 17% in and Bloombo leads by little more than 1%.

9:39PM: With 158 of 169 precincts reporting, Dem Anthony Foxx has a 52-48 lead in the Charlotte mayor’s race.

9:35PM: Sorry about the server errors, folks – not a whole lot we can do on our end, I’m afraid. Anyhow, the first few precincts are reporting in NY-23.

9:29PM: Looks like Jon Corzine is underperforming his county baselines just about everywhere. Though it just closed to 49-44-6 Christie with 44% reporting.

9:24PM: Another VA General Assembly Dem incumbent set to bite the dust in HD-83, trailing by 20 points with 82% reporting.

9:22PM: Some results are finally starting to make their way in from the Atlanta mayor’s race.

9:20PM: 52-42-6 Christie with 35% in. Ugh.

9:08PM: 50-43-5 Christie, with 29% reporting.

9:02PM: Polls are now closed in NY. In PA, the Dem Supreme Court candidate is up large with 6% in.

8:56PM: 16% of the vote in so far in New Jersey, and Christie is up 54-40. Don’t fret, though – most of the counties reporting are expected to go heavily to Christie.

8:55PM: Just 4% in so far in Maine – good guys with 56%.

8:52PM: TheUnknown285 says of GA-HD-141: “There will be a runoff. One of the candidates will be the indy Rusty Kidd. The question is: who will be the other candidate? Democrat Darrell Black and Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon are separated by sixteen votes with seemingly only canvassing and absentees left.”

8:50PM: Johnny LT has a good update on the VA Assembly races. Says Johnny: “So far not looking as bad as it should be for such a large McDonnell victory.”

8:38PM: Just a head’s up for those planning to burn the midnight oil: We may not get the full results of NY-23 tonight, as several towns in St. Lawrence County are having difficulty with their new voting equipment.

8:33PM: Time for some fresh thread. The AP has results for several states: CA | CT | GA | ME | MI | NJ | NY | OH | PA | VA | WA.

Democratic Governor Chet Culver’s campaign started running its second television commercial today, a 30-second spot focusing on the governor’s response to last year’s flooding and this year’s budget shortfall. (A few weeks ago Culver ordered a 10 percent across-the-board cut in the current-year budget.)  

Like the commercial Culver ran last month, this ad emphasizes that the governor cut spending and his own salary in order to balance the state budget during this recession without raising taxes. I think the ad is well-crafted in terms of script and visuals, but like Bleeding Heartland users IowaVoter and dricey, I am concerned when Democrats rely heavily on Republican anti-tax messaging. Culver may be reinforcing conservative frames and limiting his future policy options if he does win re-election.

Des Moines Register political columnist Kathie Obradovich highlighted another potential problem not long ago:

Gov. Chet Culver vowed to balance the state budget without raising taxes. And yet a third or more of Iowa school districts might end up raising property taxes as a direct result of the cut to state school aid ordered by Culver.

Is the governor breaking his promise? Well, no. And yes.

When Culver talks about avoiding a tax increase, he really means income and sales taxes – the two major revenue streams for the state. He’s referring to tax increases that he would have to sign into law. In that sense, he hasn’t raised taxes.

But he acknowledges that property taxes are a concern. Culver says he’ll ask the Legislature next year to require school districts to use their cash reserves before raising taxes.

Republicans are already blaming Democrats for the property tax increases many Iowans will experience next year. Their outrage is hypocritical, because the state cuts affecting education and local governments would have been far more severe if not for the federal stimulus bill, which included aid to state governments. Of course, Republicans denounced the stimulus package and bashed Culver for using these federal funds for their intended purpose: to help backfill the 2009 budget.

In any event, Democrats should be wary about staking next year’s campaign on “we didn’t raise your taxes during this recession.” That won’t be a comforting message to Iowans who have to pay a larger property tax bill in September 2010.