Swing State Project

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

David asked me to do a quick example of how I do my redistricting, so I decided to use a relatively ‘easy’ state, Wisconsin, since it has townships. In the same way I wouldn’t drive a car or ride a bike without brakes (yes, fixie riders, the laws of physics hate you too), I don’t want to redistrict without having both sets of information.

Before you start, take a look at the state, and try to think how much detail you’re going to want to go into. I usually do townships/municipalities when available, but sometimes precincts. For Wisconsin, I’m going shooting for 7-1, by making the 1st and 6th more Democratic. Wisconsin doesn’t have precinct-level census data, so we’ll have to stick with townships. I really do want to split the city of Milwaukee though, so we’re going to do some estimating in just a little bit.

So now, here’s a quick overview of the process ahead:

1. Collect political and population data

2. Aggregate data together into one spreadsheet

3. Prepare a GIS shapefile (we’ll get into that) for the precinct and precinct-equivalents we’re going to use.

4. Import data from the spreadsheet into shapefile

5. Redistrict!

Follow me over the flip…

You’ll also need a few things:

a) GIS software (I use MapWindow GIS)

b) Microsoft Excel

c) An image editor program, like MS Paint, Photoshop or GIMP

d) A database file (.dbf) editor (Excel 2003 works for this, Excel 07 does not)

Let’s get started with the data.

Political data for Wisconsin is rather easy to do, everything comes in a nice spreadsheet. (Get it here.).

With that in hand, let’s get the population data. This will take a bit of work. Luckily, we have American FactFinder. Scroll down to “Census 2000 Redistricting Data” and select custom table. Let’s get the data for municipalities, so click “geo within geo”, select county subdivision within a state. Add all the county subdivisions of Wisconsin, and then hit next. Choose race, and then total population. Nothing in Wisconsin is VRA protected, so we don’t have to worry about racial breakdown. Now you’ll get a table, which conveniently, you can download by going to print/download. Now you have two nice spreadsheets.

Now that we have two spreadsheets, we have to combine them. This process is pretty arduous, but if you sort everything alphabetically, just copy and paste the two together and run a spot check. Make sure you watch out for any jurisdictions starting with “St.” or “Mc” – the Census Bureau aggregates them as ‘Saint’ and ‘Mac’, something Excel won’t do for you. With the political data, we can get to map making!

So first, we need a map template. Luckily for us, the Census Bureau keeps those on hand in its TIGER/LINE database. Since we’re only using municipalities, we can just download one file, 2000 County Subdivision. Of course, a shapefile is actually several different files, we’ll concern ourselves with two: the .shp, the shapefile itself; and the .dbf, the attribute file that we’ll be editing.

In my maps, I like to have both some political data and population data. Since we’re not worried about racial composition, I only add two sets of data to the attribute file: the population, and the Obama-McCain margin. Population is straightforward, obviously. I calculate the Obama-McCain margin, round up to the nearest percent, and then add 100 (MapWindow doesn’t like negative numbers too much), so theoretically, margins will range between 0 and 200.

Now pop open your MapWindow GIS, and click “Attribute Table Editor”. Under Edit, select “Add Field”. Call the new attribute whatever you want (I’d suggest something intuitive, like “Population” or “08 Margin”, but that’s just me). They’re both integers, and width of 10 is fine. Make sure you do this step before opening your .dbf.

Close out of MapWindow and open your .dbf so we can add our new data. Now we’re tempted to sort by County FIPS and township name (NAMELSAD00), but don’t just yet! Shapefiles require that the attribute file keep the EXACT order of attributes in their original order, so make sure you create a new column of numbers so you can get them back into their original places. Add the population and political info (again minding your Macs and your Saints). There are also ghost shapes called “County subdivision not defined”, which unsurprisingly occurs in counties like Kenosha, Racine, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Sheboygan, etc… Just mind those as well so all our created data gets assigned to the right shapes. [Alternatively, you can also use the VLOOKUP function to match if so you’re so inclined and don’t want to worry about order.]

Finally, we can get to map making. I like to map a few maps before any gerrymandering actually happens: one with political data, and one blank “precinct” map that you can color in your image editor to keep track of what you’ve done so far. In the legend sidebar, right-click on the name of your shapefile, and select “Properties”. Here you can edit a whole bunch of stuff on how you want your shapefile to look, from fill color to line width to transparency. Here, we want to create a coloring scheme. Click on coloring scheme, and you’ll get a pop-up menu. For field, select your margin field. Then, hit the plus sign to add colors. You’ll have to choose your colors. Under the values field, you can pick the values for which MapWindow will apply that color. You can do ranges, like “0 – 100” (this is why we wanted to avoid negative numbers). I use a 7-color scale, which is 13 in total (6 Dem, 6 Rep, and 1 for an exact tie).

With that in hand, you can take screenshots of your maps using Edit->Copy->Map. For finer resolutions, I usually zoom in a bit, take multiple screenshots, and piece them together in an image editor. Now you can get to gerrymandering. To keep running totals of population and political data, in my Excel sheet, I create a column for “District”, and have a series of “SUMIF” statements. This way, as I assign precincts to a district, we get a running total. In states that have VRA protected districts, we can also track the racial composition of a district as we go along. Use your blank precinct map to keep track on a visual basis of what you’ve assigned. MapWindow is helpful here, as its “Identify” function can tell you the name of precincts you’re looking at. If you’re feeling efficient, you can select multiple precincts (holding CTRL), and viewing them all using the ‘Attribute Table Editor’. You can copy all the info out of the Attribute Table into Excel.

Now, all that work comes for the fun part: gerrymander away!

Once you’re done, you can make maps of your finished plan. You can use the precinct map you’ve been using to keep a running track, or we can go back into MapWindow. You can add a new attribute for “District” into the .dbf, as we did before. (Add field in MapWindow first, then use your .dbf editor. Again, make sure the shapes are in the exact order as you found them in.) You can then assign a new coloring scheme based on district number. There are plenty of things you can do at this point, like labeling county names using the County Shapefile, or labeling municipality names (I don’t recommend this, as this will clutter your screen beyond recognition). From here, the choices are endless.

Now, I did actually do a map of Wisconsin. I went a few steps further and divided the city of Milwaukee into precincts. Unfortunately, Census didn’t keep track of those, so I pieced together the city block by block, all 7,394 of them. I won’t go into detail on that, but my plan does split the city between two districts, much like the pre-2000 map.

I’ll cut the usual fluff I put here, since I made you read this far, haven’t I?

Here’s the new map:

And here’s an inset of Milwaukee County, with municipalities labeled.

District by district, we have:

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
1	670,184	216,461	138,012	60.30%	38.45%
Kenosha	149,577	45,836	31,609	58.38%	40.26%
Milwaukee	305,170	109,975	56,748	65.12%	33.60%
Ozaukee	0,103	0,053	0,026	67.09%	32.91%
Racine	167,842	48,846	37,464	55.97%	42.93%
Walworth	47,492	11,751	12,165	48.48%	50.19%

As I said at the outset, I wanted to draw Paul Ryan out. Plus, keeping Kenosha and Racine attached to Janesville required going through Republican Walworth County, something that made gerrymandering quite difficult. Thus, the new 1st sheds Rock County and instead climbs further through Milwaukee, grabbing St. Francis, South Milwaukee, and Cudahy, through some lakefront precincts to downtown, up the East Side, through to the Democratic-leaning North Shore towns. Kenosha County remains in its entirety, while the nastier parts of northwest Racine County are stripped out and packed into the Republican 5th. Obama’s performance in this 45% Milwaukee, 25% Racine, and 22% Kenosha district is up to 60%, up 9%.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
2	670,284	274,235	133,998	66.36%	32.43%
Columbia	5,154	1,697	1,174	58.34%	40.36%
Dane	426,526	205,984	73,065	72.93%	25.87%
Dodge	54,056	13,367	13,699	48.77%	49.98%
Jefferson	74,021	21,448	21,096	49.80%	48.98%
Rock	64,260	19,313	11,644	61.52%	37.09%
Walworth	46,267	12,426	13,320	47.72%	51.15%

Gains have to come from somewhere, and Tammy Baldwin’s 2nd and Gwen Moore’s 4th are where the Democrats that are weakened somewhat to boost the 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 7th. However, this district is still centered on Dane County and Madison. Instead of looking south and north, this district looks east, taking in the entirety of Jefferson County and parts of Rock, Walworth, and Dodge County. Home to UW-M, UW-Whitewater, and Beloit College, this district featured Obama at 66.4%, a drop of 3%. 63.6% of this district’s residents still live in Dane County, so I’m not too concerned.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
3	670,351	214,972	151,028	57.89%	40.67%
Barron	44,963	12,078	10,457	52.89%	45.79%
Buffalo	13,804	3,949	2,923	56.45%	41.79%
Burnett	15,674	4,337	4,200	50.03%	48.45%
Crawford	17,243	4,987	2,830	62.70%	35.58%
Dunn	39,858	13,002	9,566	56.72%	41.73%
Grant	49,597	14,875	9,068	61.29%	37.36%
Green	33,647	11,502	6,730	62.23%	36.41%
Iowa	22,780	7,987	3,829	66.85%	32.05%
La Crosse	107,120	38,524	23,701	61.13%	37.61%
Lafayette	16,137	4,732	2,984	60.49%	38.14%
Pepin	7,213	2,102	1,616	55.74%	42.85%
Pierce	36,804	11,803	9,812	53.59%	44.55%
Polk	41,319	10,876	11,282	48.18%	49.98%
Richland	17,924	5,041	3,298	59.77%	39.10%
Rock	88,047	31,216	15,720	65.58%	33.02%
St. Croix	63,155	21,177	22,837	47.38%	51.09%
Trempealeau	27,010	8,321	4,808	62.59%	36.16%
Vernon	28,056	8,463	5,367	60.22%	38.19%

Ron Kind gets a small boost too, from the inclusion of half of Rock County in his district. Ron Kind sheds Eau Claire to boost the 7th, but picks up Green and Rock from Baldwin and Burnett and Polk from Obey. Kind’s base of La Crosse stays, as does plenty of the dairy country that Kind’s been representing for years. You’re indeed right that Paul Ryan’s house in Janesville gets put in here, but Kind is favored in a Kind-Ryan matchup in this 57.9% Obama district, up half a percent. Paul Ryan’s represented 9% of this district before. Ron Kind’s representing 67% of this district – I’ll let you decide.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
4	670,531	218,908	106,663	66.63%	32.47%
Milwaukee	634,994	209,844	92,697	68.75%	30.37%
Waukesha	35,537	9,064	13,966	38.91%	59.96%

As I’ve said, Gwen Moore bears the other brunt of redistricting. She keeps the western half on Milwaukee County – including the heart of Milwaukee and some suburbs, plus Menomonee Falls in Waukesha. Not to fear though, Obama still got 66.63% here, a drop of about 9%. Still, in this 95% Milwaukee, 5% Waukesha district, a Democrat has the clear advantage.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
5	670,746	152,723	260,690	36.57%	62.43%
Columbia	1,983	0,328	0,747	30.04%	68.41%
Dodge	31,841	5,816	9,316	37.93%	60.76%
Fond du Lac	40,923	9,025	13,722	39.17%	59.55%
Green Lake	19,105	4,000	5,393	42.01%	56.64%
Ozaukee	82,214	20,526	32,146	38.59%	60.44%
Racine	20,989	4,562	8,490	34.61%	64.40%
Sheboygan	25,362	4,897	9,913	32.61%	66.02%
Washington	117,493	25,719	47,729	34.63%	64.27%
Waukesha	325,230	76,275	131,186	36.45%	62.69%
Winnebago	5,606	1,575	2,048	42.92%	55.80%

Sensenbrenner gets a boost too, as all the Republican votes of the Milwaukee suburbs and the Fox Valley get packed here. The trifecta of Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties are brutal for any Democrat (let’s not forget that Bush had a margin coming out of Greater Milwaukee!). Meanwhile, the North Shore of Milwaukee is removed – those were Democratic votes thrown in for no good reason. Throw in the unpalatable parts of Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, and Dodge County, and you’ve got this 37% Obama district.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
6	670,599	195,883	157,909	54.60%	44.02%
Adams	18,643	5,806	3,974	58.36%	39.95%
Calumet	40,631	13,295	12,722	50.31%	48.15%
Columbia	45,331	14,636	10,272	58.09%	40.77%
Fond du Lac	56,373	14,438	14,442	49.47%	49.48%
Jackson	19,100	5,572	3,552	60.24%	38.40%
Juneau	24,316	6,186	5,148	53.80%	44.77%
Manitowoc	82,887	22,428	19,234	53.00%	45.45%
Marquette	15,832	4,068	3,654	51.92%	46.64%
Monroe	40,899	10,198	8,666	53.33%	45.32%
Sauk	55,225	18,617	11,562	60.92%	37.84%
Sheboygan	87,284	25,498	20,888	54.30%	44.48%
Waushara	23,154	5,868	5,770	49.64%	48.82%
Winnebago	151,157	46,592	35,898	55.65%	42.88%
Wood	9,767	2,681	2,127	54.81%	43.49%

The 6th would be the elusive seventh Democratic district in the state, and I had to reach for this one. There was potential in the old 6th, but just need to be developed further. As a result, instead of Republican leaning Dodge County, this district goes farther west and southwest, grabbing Columbia and parts of Baraboo from the 2nd, and some more counties from the 3rd. It sheds the southern half (read: Republican half) of Sheboygan, all of Fond du Lac outside of a few towns and Fond du Lac proper, and Green Lake County. What we get is a district that Obama got 54.6% in, winning each county part except Fond du Lac, which he lost by 4 votes. This district won’t necessarily elect a Democrat – the Fox Valley isn’t exactly a Democratic stronghold, but it’s certainly more likely this way.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
7	670,602	207,247	150,865	56.98%	41.48%
Ashland	16,866	5,818	2,634	68.01%	30.79%
Bayfield	15,013	5,972	3,365	63.22%	35.62%
Chippewa	55,195	16,239	13,492	53.82%	44.72%
Clark	33,557	7,454	6,383	52.76%	45.18%
Douglas	43,287	15,830	7,835	65.93%	32.63%
Eau Claire	93,142	33,146	20,959	60.38%	38.18%
Iron	6,861	1,914	1,464	55.83%	42.71%
Langlade	20,740	5,182	5,081	49.92%	48.95%
Lincoln	29,641	8,424	6,519	55.40%	42.87%
Marathon	125,834	36,367	30,345	53.65%	44.77%
Oneida	12,802	4,029	3,913	50.07%	48.63%
Portage	67,182	24,817	13,810	63.15%	35.14%
Price	15,822	4,559	3,461	55.76%	42.33%
Rusk	15,347	3,855	3,253	53.14%	44.84%
Sawyer	16,196	4,765	4,199	52.52%	46.29%
Taylor	19,680	4,563	4,586	48.94%	49.19%
Vilas	1,613	0,591	0,809	41.68%	57.05%
Washburn	16,036	4,693	4,303	51.56%	47.28%
Wood	65,788	19,029	14,454	55.89%	42.45%

Obey’s district gets a boost too. Dave doesn’t really need the help, but should he retire, nothing should be up to chance. Not too much changes – 81% of the district is a carryover from the current 7th, but the Minneapolis exurbs are shed in exchange for Eau Claire. Obama got 57% here, an improvement of 1%.

District	Population	Obama	McCain	Obama%	McCain%
8	670,378	196,782	163,228	53.95%	44.75%
Brown	226,778	67,269	55,854	54.02%	44.85%
Door	27,961	10,142	7,112	58.14%	40.77%
Florence	5,088	1,134	1,512	42.33%	56.44%
Forest	10,024	2,673	1,963	57.13%	41.95%
Kewaunee	20,187	5,902	4,711	54.81%	43.75%
Marinette	43,384	11,195	9,726	52.77%	45.84%
Menominee	4,562	1,257	0,185	86.81%	12.78%
Oconto	35,634	9,927	8,755	52.42%	46.23%
Oneida	23,974	7,878	5,717	57.00%	41.36%
Outagamie	160,971	50,294	39,677	55.04%	43.42%
Shawano	40,664	10,259	9,538	51.14%	47.55%
Vilas	19,420	5,900	6,246	47.97%	50.78%
Waupaca	51,731	12,952	12,232	50.85%	48.02%

Lastly, we have the 8th, centered still on Green Bay and Appleton. Intentionally, I didn’t tweak too much since Steve Kagen seems to be getting slowly entrenched. 96.5% of the district is the same as the old 8th, including Kagen’s base in Outagamie County. With some rearranging of precincts in Oneida and Vilas counties moves the balance 0.4% to the left, to 53.9% Obama.

Public Policy Polling (9/10-11, registered voters):

Rob Miller (D): 44

Joe Wilson (R-inc): 43

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Whoa. Based on some earlier teasing from PPP’s Tom Jensen, it sounded like Wilson’s outburst against Obama was not hurting him at all in his district, but that’s clearly not the case according to the complete results of the poll. Voters disapprove of Wilson’s outburst by a 62-29 margin, and 49% say that they’re less likely to vote for him (with 35% being more enthused to re-elect him). That’s despite a bare plurality of voters thinking that Obama was actually telling the truth about his health care plan’s coverage of illegal immigrants (46-42).

I guess that New York Times piece filled with gushing praise for Wilson from back home may need to be re-examined…

UPDATE: According to Roll Call, a “GOP source” is claiming that Wilson has raised $700,000 since his outburst in Congress. There’s no way to tell if that number is utter bullshit (which I suspect it could be), as the GOP has no real widely-used equivalent of Actblue that serves as a publicly-viewable online fundraising conduit. The only comparable tool they have, Slatecard, shows a $725.00 tally for Wilson. Considering that Slatecard has redirected its main page traffic to a special “Support Joe” page, that’s pretty pitiful. Third quarter fundraising reports will be due on October 15th, so we’ll have to wait to find out just how fiercely GOP donors are rallying behind Wilson. Until then, I suspect that part of that $700K figure may include a few “pledges”.

LATER UPDATE: Miller’s campaign has said that it’s pulled in a million bucks in the past 48 hours.

• CA-Sen: Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore wants you to remember that he’s still running against Carly Fiorina, regardless of what the NRSC tries to tell you. When John Cornyn sent out some platitudes referring to his strong recruits in Kelly Ayotte and Carly Fiorina, DeVore let the world know in no uncertain terms what he really thinks of the NRSC.

“I welcome Senator Cornyn’s endorsement of Carly Fiorina, my probable opponent for the Republican nomination to defeat Barbara Boxer in 2010. Under John Cornyn, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has racked up an impressive string of endorsements in support of non-conservative, unpopular, poorly vetted candidates across the nation. These candidacies have thus far gone on to flounder or implode.”

Questions continue to circulate about HP’s sales of hundreds of millions of dollars in printers and other equipment to Iran, despite the bans on trade with the nation… and more generally about her ability to close the deal in view of how poorly CEOs have done in statewide races before.

• SC-Gov: Mark Sanford’s prospects have seemed to be on a roller coaster ride since his Appalachian Trail adventure, and this week he’s going through another dip: now the state GOP has called for his resignation. State party chair Karen Floyd made the announcement yesterday evening.

• NC-10: Congratulations to Rep. Patrick McHenry; one of the Beltway’s most eligible bachelors, he’s finally off the market. He announces that he’s engaged to Giulia Cangiano, a GAO economist whom he met through mutual friends.

• OH-17: He’s baaaack! Ex-Rep. Jim Traficant is out of prison, and already talking about running for office. He says there’s a 50/50 chance he’d run for his old seat, although it’s held by a Democrat, Tim Ryan. That didn’t stop him before; he ran against Ryan as an independent in 2002 and got 15% of the vote. Traficant is beaming down to a local teabagging function this weekend to get reacquainted with his constituents.

• OH-18: Although Republicans were disappointed when they didn’t get state Sen. Jimmy Stewart to run, they’ve found another state Senator to go up against Rep. Zack Space: Bob Gibbs of Holmes County. Most of Gibbs’ district is in the 16th, but Holmes County is in the 18th.

• PA-07: Republican Pat Meehan, the former US Attorney for eastern Pennsylvania, who recently bailed out of the gubernatorial primary, is ready to announce his candidacy in the 7th, where Rep. Joe Sestak is leaving behind an open seat. Meehan will make his formal announcement on Monday. Although the seat is D+3, Meehan (the former DA of Delaware County) is strong enough to make this race a very competitive even against highly touted Dem state Rep. Bryan Lentz.

• SC-02: Both heckler Joe Wilson and his Democratic opponent, Rob Miller, are now raising money like gangbusters. Miller is up above $750,000 in contributions now since the Obama address. Wilson has also raised $200,000, although not much of that seems to be coming online: at SlateCard, the GOP equivalent of ActBlue, he’s raised a total of $620 from 13 supporters. PPP‘s Tom Jensen, who polled SC-02 last night, is teasing bad results for Wilson.

• VA-05: Although this guy seems to be the only GOP candidate in the 5th so far, don’t expect him to be the nominee… especially now that he was just convicted on a concealed weapons violation. Bradley Rees was fined $100 in a local court after police found two pistols in his glove compartment. Most attention focused on state Sen. Rob Hurt as the likely GOP challenger to Rep. Tom Perriello.

Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43

Ken Buck (R): 37

Other: 7

Undecided: 13

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39

Ryan Frazier (R): 40

Other: 7

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Oddly, Rasmussen chose not to test the two latest entrants in this race — Democrat Andrew Romanoff, who launched his exploratory committee earlier today, and former GOP Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. If you wanna make sure that your polls gain a lot of ink in the media, it’s usually a good idea to include the names who are getting the most buzz. But, that’s enough Rasmussen criticism for a day…

These numbers are somewhat different than PPP’s findings from August. (In that poll, Bennet lead Frazier by 38-33 and Buck by 39-35.) In any case, I can’t imagine that Frazier, an Aurora city councilor, is in a stronger position than Buck. At this point, they’re still just Two Dudes.

CO-Gov:

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 39

Scott McInnis (R): 44

Other: 7

Undecided: 10

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 41

Josh Penry (R): 39

Other: 7

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Unlike the Senate poll, this snapshot is pretty close to PPP’s August poll. Pretty disturbing stuff.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen | CO-Gov

(H/T: GOPVoter)

Last year all five Iowa incumbents in the House of Representatives were re-elected by double-digit margins. The main challengers failed to win even 40 percent of the vote against Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02), as well as Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05).

I’ve long assumed that none of Iowa’s Congressional districts would be competitive in 2010. Although Republicans have put Leonard Boswell (IA-03) on their long list of House targets, several other analysts share my view that Boswell is safe for next year. To my knowledge, the only declared candidates against Boswell are the little-known Dave Funk and Pat Bertroche. Boswell’s 1996 opponent Mike Mahaffey is thinking it over too.

Isaac Wood and Larry Sabato released new House race rankings, and they included IA-03 among 47 Democratic-held districts that are “likely” to remain Democratic:

The “likely” category is reserved for those competitive races where one party has a distinct advantage over the other. Most of these races feature either strong challengers or weak incumbents, but not a combination of the two that would warrant a more competitive designation. Consider these races as a watch list which could turn into heated battle with a single misstep by an incumbent or positive fundraising report.

I could see Iowa’s third district becoming competitive, but only if the economy is in terrible shape next fall and Republicans fund a well-known candidate with a base in Polk County (the population center of the district).

I question Wood and Sabato’s decision to put Loebsack’s district in the “likely” category as well. So far right-winger Steve Rathje is definitely running against Loebsack (he narrowly lost the 2008 GOP primary for U.S. Senate). Mariannette Miller-Meeks is also considering a rematch. She’s an impressive woman, but I frankly can’t imagine this district becoming competitive in 2010. IA-02 has much stronger Democratic voting performance than IA-03, which tracks closely with the nationwide vote in presidential elections.

Iowa City-based blogger John Deeth, who’s lived in IA-02 for a long time, also thinks Loebsack is rock solid for 2010.

Share any thoughts or predictions in this thread.

P.S.: Any idea when SSP’s 2010 House race ratings will be released?

UPDATE: From Deeth’s blog:

MMM’s case (other than her admittedly interesting biography) was attacking Loebsack as a solid vote for Speaker Pelosi and the Democratic leadership — as if that was a BAD thing in a Democratic district. She also had trouble keeping her own party united behind her, with anti-choice forces within the GOP sent out late attacks and fed the rumor mill.

Only thing I can think of is that Sabato just looked at the Loebsack percentage of just a hair under 60. The Green and independent candidates account for that; in Johnson County at least MMM’s percentage almost exactly matched McCain’s, and Loebsack trailed Obama by almost exactly the third party vote.

Looks to me like Sabato just threw every 2006 and 2008 upset winner (Space, Shea-Porter, Walz, etc.) on the “Likely” list. Like I was saying even BEFORE the 2006 election, the real fluke is that Jim Leach held the seat as long as he did.

Anzalone-Liszt for Pat Quinn (8/18-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 54

Dan Hynes (D): 26

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Hynes, the state Comptroller, apparently had hoped to run for AG, but Lisa Madigan decided to stay put, foreclosing that option. So instead of going for the open Senate seat, he decided to take on an incumbent governor. Hynes currently has a bigger warchest than Quinn (around $3.5m to <$1m), and supposedly thinks he can gain the backing of the Daley machine. But Quinn is no David Paterson – despite a bruising few months spent fighting with the state legislature, he has 72% favorables and a 68% job approval (Hynes is at 56% & 61%, respectively). That makes him the rare sitting governor whose constituents don’t, it seems, hate his guts. (UPDATE: At least as far as Dem primary voters are concerned, as sulthernao points out.)

Illinois has the earliest primary in the nation, Feb. 2, 2010 – just five months away. Hynes might be able to gain more traction thanks to his financial advantage, and Quinn’s ratings are not invulnerable (just think “jobless recovery”). But Hynes, so far as I know, hasn’t released a poll to counter this one. I’ll be very curious to see if he does.

The full memo is available below the fold.

You’ll recall that Bill Hedrick (D) is challenging robotically conservative Ken Calvert (R) in the California 44th (Riverside and Orange Counties). He came surprisingly close last time, and he has a much better funded, better organized effort this time around.

In a comment several weeks ago, I questioned whether Hedrick supports the public option, based on some ambiguous wording in a campaign email. Now, on the basis of a new email, I can say that he apparently does support the public option (though admittedly there’s still a bit of wiggle room):

Last night, President Obama addressed the nation on an issue we all know is critically important: making sure every American receives quality, affordable health care. . . .

Ken Calvert’s response?  Falsehoods, fabrication and fear mongering.  Just read what he had to say:

“It’s the pathway to nationalized health care.” – Press-Enterprise

“The public option is an absolute deal killer.” – Orange County Register

Enough is enough!



My position couldn’t be more clear: I support fundamental health care reform – and I support it now!

Having Hedrick in Congress instead of Calvert would make a huge difference in terms of voting record. You can support him on Act Blue.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps (9/8-9, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (41)

Chris Christie (R): 41 (43)

Chris Daggett (I): 10 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

Democracy Corps’ website is on the fritz for now, so I can’t link to any crosstabs right away. We’ll get you the straight dope once it’s available, though. D-Corps’ website is back up.

Rasmussen Reports (9/9, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (42)

Chris Christie (R): 46 (50)

Chris Daggett (I): 6 (-)

Undecided: 10 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is the first time that Rasmussen has actually included independent Chris Daggett in the mix, and he clocks in at a not-insignificant 6%. Rasmussen also cheekily threw in a few “Who do you trust more?” questions on taxes, “cutting” government spending, and corruption, and — surprise, surprise — found Christie in the lead in each column. Of course, no questions were asked on issues that may have played to Corzine’s strengths, but, hey, this is Rasmussen.

(In the diaries, conspiracy has more.)

UPDATE (David): One key point – among non-leaners, Christie’s lead has shrunk from +11 to +4, which is a pretty dramatic drop. Ras explains:

However, it’s worth noting that other indicators suggest that Christie’s lead might be a bit softer than the eight-point advantage indicates. Results before leaners are included show Christie up by just four points. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Christie leads by six. This suggests that the GOP campaign may be like a baseball team heading into the late innings with a lead but lacking a reliable closer. They’re happy to be ahead but can’t wait for the game to end so they can breathe again.

• FL-Sen: Today is the day we say goodbye to Mel Martinez, resigning to… well, he hasn’t figured it out yet. Martinez leaves sounding rather downbeat, having been pilloried by much of his party for his work on immigration. And today we say hello to George LeMieux, Charlie Crist’s former right-hand man and now body-double in the Senate. Interesting trivia: Kirsten Gillibrand is no longer the youngest Senator; LeMieux is a youthful 40.

• MA-Sen: The rumor du jour coming out of the Bay State is that Andy Card, the former Bush White House chief of staff, is interested in the Senate special election for the GOP. Card would be a long-shot (as would any Republican), but would at least come to the race armed with a giant Rolodex full of donors. (Wait… do people even use Rolodexes any more?)

• UT-Sen: Is Bob Bennett just ready for retirement, or is he trying to move to the left of the the gaggle of far-right primary challengers, hoping they split the wingnut vote and let him win by occupying all of the quasi-moderate Huntsman-style space in the GOP field? Either way, he took a few provocative actions yesterday, as one of only four GOPers to stand and applaud Barack Obama’s call-out of the “death panel” lie last night — which earned him the spot of Public Enemy #1 at RedState — and earlier as one of only five GOPers to vote in favor of cloture on the Cass Sunstein nomination, who currently holds the #2 spot on the list that Glenn Beck is holding in his hand.

• NY-Gov: This is a weird-ass rumor, but apparently several different sources are telling the Weekly Standard that Hillary Clinton may bag on being Secretary of State in order to run for Governor of New York. Take with… I dunno, is there something much stronger than salt? Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani was supposed to be in the middle of a power play involving remaking the leadership of the state GOP in preparation for a gubernatorial run, but seems to be losing that proxy battle, as the insufficiently-pro-Rudy Ed Cox still seems on track to take over as state GOP chair.

• TN-Gov: Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge in the GOP primary for the open gubernatorial race in Tennessee, according to his own polling, done by the Tarrance Group. Wamp has 22% of the vote, followed by Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey at 15, Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons at 14, and Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam at 12. Wamp also led the field with 22 in a poll several months ago from Southern Political Report.

• CA-11: There are already a bunch of next-to-no-names running against Jerry McNerney in the R+1 11th, but the GOP has dug up someone who’s at least one notch above that: Tony Amador, the former U.S. Marshal for the Eastern District of California under the Bush administration, giving him some sort-of-non-partisan law-and-order cred. Amador was the son of undocumented immigrants — but does that make him the kind of courageous by-the-bootstraps story that Republicans love, or unacceptable to the GOP’s rabid nativist base?

• MO-08: Here’s an appealing-sounding recruit for the Dems to go against Jo Ann Emerson: college instructor and Army vet Tommy Sowers. He served two tours in Iraq, then taught at West Point, and now teaches at Missouri University of Science and Technology. He’ll still have an uphill fight against Emerson, who hasn’t drawn tough competition since her initial 1996 election, in this district that actually went for Bill Clinton but has fallen off the cliff lately at R+15.

• SC-02: If last night were a movie, the poster would say “Starring Barack Obama, and introducing Joe Wilson!” With one over-the-top line of dialogue, Wilson was catapulted from back-bench anonymity, to front-and-center among one-dimensional cartoonish House Republican villains, right next to Michele Bachmann and Jean Schmidt. While Wilson privately apologized last night, he is refusing today to publicly apologize in the House well, and Democratic House leadership seems eager to let that slide, not wanting to get distracted from the more pressing matter of health care. However, the assault from the netroots has been merciless; Wilson’s 2010 opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller (who came within 8% of Wilson in 2008 in this R+9 district), has hit the fundraising jackpot, raising over $200K since last night according to the DCCC. (Prior to last night, Miller had $49K CoH while Wilson had $212K.) This includes $135K alone at Act Blue (hint hint). UPDATE: PPP teases that they’re going into the field tonight to poll SC-02; they’re asking for help in drafting the poll, so be sure and give them a hand.

• CA-St. Ass.: In case you were under a rock yesterday (or had a particularly aggressive work-safe web-blocker), Republican Mike Duvall resigned immediately from his state Assembly seat in northern Orange County after getting caught on an open microphone talking in lascivious detail about his sexual transactions with a oil-and-gas lobbyist. The resulting special election in AD-72 doesn’t seem likely to go to the Dems — Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby is set to run for the seat — but it’s the least hardcore part of the OC, where John McCain won only 50-47, so it’s worth paying some attention. (See californianwonder‘s diary for more.)

• House: Here’s a GOP poll that I’m sharing simply because of the sheer irrelevance of its premise: that Nancy Pelosi is the most polarizing House Speaker since Newt Gingrich. Remember that there was exactly one Speaker in between Gingrich and Pelosi. Should it be any surprise that the highly visible Pelosi is considered more polarizing than the shapeless, flavorless DeLay-puppet Dennis Hastert… or that the GOP paid good money to ascertain that?