Swing State Project

Previous diaries

Summary:

  TX has 32 representatives, 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats

Possibly vulnerable:

 TX-10 (R)

 TX-17 (D)

 TX-23 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from AOL

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: TX-01

Location  Eastern TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AR, including Tyler  map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Louie Gohmert (R)

VoteView  362

First elected 2004

2008 margin 88-12 over an independent

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Current opponents None declare

Demographics  55th most rural (49.1%), 72nd lowest income (median = $33K), 90th most Blacks (18.9%), 17th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-02

Location  Oh, the odd shapes of TX districts!  This one mostly runs east west, from the LA border (and the Gulf) west to outer Houston.  But it also extends north a bit.  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Ted Poe (R)

VoteView  438

First elected 2004

2008 margin 89-11 over a libertarian

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 56-43

Obama margin 40-60

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   94th most Blacks (19%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-03

Location North central TX, including Plano and Garland    map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Sam Johnson (R)

VoteView  428

First elected 1991

2008 margin 60-38 over Tom Daley

2006 margin 63-35

2004 margin 86-8-6 over minor parties

Obama margin 42-57

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents No declared Democrats

Demographics  61st highest income (median = $61K), 61st fewest veterans (9.5%).

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-04

Location Northeastern TX, bordering OK and AR, including Texarkana map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Ralph Hall (R) (may retire)

VoteView  R + 21

First elected 1980

2008 margin 69-29 over Glenn Melancon

2006 margin 64-33

2004 margin 68-30

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  44th most rural (50.4%), 14th most Republican  

Assessment Hall is the oldest person in the House (born 1923).  But, even if he retires, this is solidly Republican territory.

District: TX-05

Location  Shaped like a C; the inner-top of the C is near Dallas, it goes south and then east, and also east directly from Dallas   map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Jeb Hansarling (R)

VoteView  441

First elected 2002

2008 margin 84-16 over a Libertarian

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   35th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-06

Location    Shaped sort of like a boot, with an added doodad on top, the top of the boot is south and west of Dallas, it extends south about 100 miles and then east  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative  Joe Barton (R)

VoteView 391

First elected 1984

2008 margin 62-36 over Ludwig Otto

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 40-60

Bush margin 2004 67-34

Current opponents Ludwig Otto

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-07

Location  Western outskirts of Houston  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative John Culberson (R)

VoteView  357

First elected 2000

2008 margin 56-42 over Michael Skelly

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  70th highest income (median = $58K), 66th fewest veterans (9.9%)  

Assessment Vaguely possible, but not at all likely

District: TX-08

Location The southern part of eastern TX, bordering LA   map

Cook PVI R + 25

Representative Kevin Brady (R)

VoteView  347.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin 73-25 over Kent Hargett

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 25-74

Bush margin 2004 73-28

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   45th lowest income (median = $40K), 8th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-09

Location Part of Houston and southern suburbs   map

Cook PVI D + 22

Representative  Al Green (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 2004

2008 margin 94-6 over a libertarian

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 72-27

Obama margin 77-23

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Current opponents None declared

Demographics    28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), 54th most Blacks (37%), 64th most Latinos (32.8%), 12th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly 11% Asians), 38th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-10

Location A long, narrow district running from Austin almost to Houston   map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Michael McCaul (R)

VoteView  343

First elected 2004

2008 margin 54-43 over Larry Joe Doherty

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin 79-15-6 against minor party candidates

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents A primary; then Jack McDonald is considering it and has already raised over $600K.

Demographics   77th highest income (median = $52K), 85th most Latinos (18.7%).

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; McDonald should go for it!

District: TX-11

Location  Western TX, bordering (a little) on NM, including Odessa, Midland, and Brownwood  map

Cook PVI R + 28

Representative Michael Conaway (R)

VoteView 413

First elected 2004

2008 margin 88-12 over a libertarian

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 77-22

Obama margin 24-75

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Current opponents None declared

Demographics    60th lowest income (median = $33K), 50th most Latinos (29.6%), 3rd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-12

Location Part of Ft. Worth, and western and northern suburbs   map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Kay Granger (R)

VoteView  358

First elected 1996

2008 margin 68-31 over Tracey Smith

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 72-28

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics  63rd most Latinos (23.7%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-13

Location Northern panhandle, bordering OK and NM   map

Cook PVI R + 29

Representative Mac Thorberry (R)

VoteView 393

First elected 1994

2008 margin 78-22 over Roger Waun

2006 margin 74-23

2004 margin 92-8 against a libertarian

Obama margin 23-76

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   72nd lowest income (median = $34K), 2nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-14

Location  Most of the Gulf Coast of TX   map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Ron Paul (R)

VoteView  444

First elected 1996

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 33-66

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics  60th most Latinos (24.9%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-15

Location Southern TX, between the Gulf and Mexico, but bordering neither   map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Ruben Hinojosa (D)

VoteView  164

First elected 1996

2008 margin 66-32 over Eddie Zamora

2006 margin 62-24-15 against two Republicans

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   6th lowest income (median = $27K), 59th fewest veterans (9.3%), 18th fewest Whites (19.7%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 2nd most Latinos (77.6%) (only TX-16 is higher), fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (1%)

Assessment Increasingly safe

District: TX-16

Location Westernmost TX, bordering NM and Mexico, including El Paso   map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Silvestre Reyes (D)

VoteView  177

First elected 1996

2008 margin 82-10 against an independent

2006 margin 79-21 against a libertarian

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 44-57

Current opponents Tim Besco

Demographics  43rd lowest income (median = $31K), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), most Latinos (77.7%)  

Assessment Safe

District: TX-17

Location Another TX district with twists, but it’s south of Dallas and centers on Waco map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Chet Edwards (D)

VoteView  201

First elected 1990

2008 margin 53-45 over Rob Curnock  

2006 margin 58-40

2004 margin 51-47

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Current opponents Rob Curnock is running again, as are other Republicans

Demographics 19th most Republican  

Assessment Can’t be considered totally safe, but not that vulnerable

District: TX-18

Location  Shaped sort of like a Q, in Houston and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 24

Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

VoteView  17

First elected 1994

2008 margin 77-20 over John Faulk

2006 margin 77-19

2004 margin 89-6-5 against minor party candidates

Obama margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 28-72

Current opponents John Faulk is running again, as is Tex Christopher

Demographics 40th lowest income (median = $31K), 41st fewest veterans (8.3%), 17th fewest Whites (19.7%), 32nd most Blacks (40.1%), 43rd most Latinos (35.6%), 35th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-19

Location  Another weird shape…like a W with extra squiggles.  Borders NM in the west, then jiggles around eventually almost reaching the OK border; includes Lubbock  map

Cook PVI R + 26

Representative Randy Neugebauer (R)

VoteView  420

First elected 2003

2008 margin 72-25 over Dwight Fullingim

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 58-40

Obama margin 27-72

Bush margin 2004 78-23

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 53rd most Latinos (29%), 5th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-20

Location  San Antonio and a odd shaped area around it   map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Charlie Gonzalez (D)

VoteView  117.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 72-25 over Robert Litoff

2006 margin 87-13 against a libertarian

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 45-55

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 51st lowest income (median = $32K), 31st fewest Whites (23.4%), 9th most Latinos (67.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-21

Location Mostly west of San Antonio, but also north and east of San Antonio, towards Austin map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Lamar Smith (R)

VoteView  351

First elected 1986

2008 margin 80-20 against a libertarian

2006 margin 60-25-9 (two Democrats)

2004 margin 61-30

Obama margin 40-58

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Current opponents Lainey Melnick

Demographics   25th most veterans (16.8%).

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-22

Location Oh, I dunno…. a bowtie with one strand loose? Mostly south of Houston map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Pete Olson (R)

VoteView  241

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-45 over Nick Lampson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  48th highest income (median = $58K), 42nd most Republican  

Assessment long shot

District: TX-23

Location Western TX, except for El Paso, borders Mexico and NM   map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Ciro Rodriguez (D)

VoteView  191

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-42 over Lyle Larson

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Francesco Canseco, maybe others

Demographics  74th lowest income (median = $34K), 47th fewest Whites (30%), 13th most Latinos (65.1%).  

Assessment Not completely safe, although Rodriguez has raised almost $500K.

District: TX-24

Location  Shaped like a T between Dallas and Ft. Worth   map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Kenny Marchant (R)

VoteView  411

First elected 2004

2008 margin 56-41 over Tom Love

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   47th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-25

Location Austin and southern and eastern suburbs   map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Lloyd Doggett (D)

VoteView 122

First elected 1994

2008 margin 66-30 over George Morovich

2006 margin 67-26

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   94th fewest veterans (10.8%), 98th fewest Whites (52.9%), 45th most Latinos (33.9%)

Assessment safe

District: TX-26

Location A square with two sticks, running north from Ft. Worth to the OK border map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Michael Burgess (R)

VoteView  369

First elected 2002

2008 margin 60-36 over Ken Leach

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 66-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents Neil Durrance (errr, someone tell him to fix the pic on his website to show his face)

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment

District: TX-27

Location  The southern Gulf coast   map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Solomon Ortiz (D)

VoteView 175  

First elected 1982

2008 margin 58-38 over Willie Vaden

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 63-35

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents James Duerr

Demographics   41st lowest income (median = $31K), 34th fewest Whites (27.6%), 8th most Latinos (68.1%)

Assessment Pretty safe

District: TX-28

Location Southern TX along the Mexican border   map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Henry Cuellar (D)

VoteView 216

First elected 2004

2008 margin 69-29 over Jim Fish

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 54-46

Obama margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics   17th lowest income (median = $29K), 49th fewest veterans (8.7%), 20th fewest Whites (20.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 3rd most Latinos (77.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-29

Location If you can describe this shape, you’re good! East of Houston map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Gene Green (D)

VoteView  173.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 75-24 over Eric Story

2006 margin 74-24

2004 margin 94-6 against a libertarian.

Obama margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents Frank Mazzapica

Demographics   48th lowest income (median = $32K), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 10th most Latinos (66.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-30

Location Dallas and southern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

VoteView 60

First elected 1992

2008 margin 83-16 over Fred Wood

2006 margin 80-18

2004 margin 93-7 against a libertarian

Obama margin 82-18

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   72nd lowest income ($34K), 45th fewest veterans (8.4%), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 30th most Blacks (41.4%), 43rd most Latinos (34.2%), 26th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-31

Location North and west of Austin map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Carter (R)

VoteView  361

First elected 2002

2008 margin 60-37 over Brian Ruiz

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 67-34

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   29th most veterans (16.4%)

Assessment long shot

District: TX-32

Location   Shaped like most of a circle, near Dallas  map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Pete Sessions (R)

VoteView  406

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-41 over Eric Roberson

2006 margin 56-41

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Steve Love

Demographics 53rd fewest veterans (8.9%), 90th fewest Whites (50.1%), 40th most Latinos (36.2%)  

Assessment Safe

First Rasmussen has Christie up 46-38 but check out the commentary. He sounds worried.

“However, it’s worth noting that other indicators suggest that Christie’s lead might be a bit softer than the eight-point advantage indicates. Results before leaners are included show Christie up by just four points. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Christie leads by six. This suggests that the GOP campaign may be like a baseball team heading into the late innings with a lead but lacking a reliable closer. They’re happy to be ahead but can’t wait for the game to end so they can breathe again.”

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

And Democracy Corps?

Christie leads 41-38 and the internals are similar.

“Corzine’s standing has improved over the past month, with his favorable rating ticking up from 32 percent to 36 percent. Christie’s favorability rating remains at 1:1, 33 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable.”

http://www.democracycorps.com/…

Corzine has to move from 38% but there is still hope.

As it turns out, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) is seeing immediate, tangible consequences to his now-infamous heckle during President Obama’s address before congress last night.

Proof that one man’s loss is another man’s gain: in the hours following South Carolina’s GOP Rep. Joe Wilson’s “You lie!” outburst during President Barack Obama’s joint address to Congress Wednesday evening, his 2010 Democratic opponent has raised about $100,000 from 3,000 people, according to a spokeswoman for the House Democrats’ campaign operation.

Full article: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/…

This incident could have just turned Rob Miller into this cycle’s Elwyn Tinklenberg. However, while Michele Bachmann’s loony tune Hardball appearance occurred in the lead-up to Election Day, Wilson’s fall from grace is happening over a year out from November 2010, which seemingly would give him ample time to recover, particularly in a conservative state like South Carolina.

Even so, given his fairly narrow margin of victory last year, Wilson clearly – and totally unnecessarily – has offered up red meat for a campaign that may have otherwise floundered, and given Democrats a reason to be fired up in an otherwise uninspiring midterm election season.

UPDATE: Chris Norby, the Current Board of Supervisors member will run for the 72nd, instead of Clerk-Recorder. (H/tOCRegister)

UPDATE 2: Placentia Councilman Scott Nelson, Former Placentia Councilman and wife of Former Senate GOP Leader Dick Ackerman, Linda Ackerman are either planning on running or expressed interest.

I was planning on making this apart of the other diaries to come on Assembly races, but because of Mike DuVall’s latest resignation after it is known that he is another idiotic family values republican who pulled a Sanford. Even Lynn Daucher, the last assemblywoman from my home city, was moderate on Abortion (Hmm, always the women in the GOP, with the pro-choice sentiments?)

Now for the district:

Basically, it covers most of North OC, including Placentia, La Habra, Brea, part of Fullerton and Anaheim..and Yorba Linda. There is hope, we can win here if we try hard to get stand behind John MacMurray elected. The only obstacle is Yorba Linda, with its very slanted registration status makes it the sole decider on who becomes an Assemblyperson. It is also the least GOP district in Orange County, with only 43.2% Republican, 33.8% Democratic while just about 19% are Decline to State.

The issue, like President Obama’s campaign: The Independents. They can swing this district blue if we can get a strong message and alot of campaign donations. Fullerton is DEM-friendly, where McCain won by less than a 1,000 votes! Anaheim is, along with La Habra (Shout out to Councilwoman Rose Espinosa!). Brea and Placentia are GOP-favored, but are small to not make much difference. Then..Yorba Linda. Yes, the same Yorba Linda where Richard Nixon’s Presidential library is, where over 50% of voters are Republican, and Democrats narrowly beat the Independents. The issues must be on the Economy, Health Care and Education. Stick it to the voters, how rude the GOP is ( like a certain congressman shouting crap at tonight’s state of the union address, and Rahm gets the last laugh) But anti-reformers are also here, thanks to a recent townhall by Rep. Gary “Dirty” Miller (R-Diamond Bar). The idea is a simple one: Unite. Unite moderate Republicans (yes, they’re still alive here.) who are socially moderate, fiscally conservative and moderate Democrats who are hesitant about the Public Option. Better than a Zell Miller Democrat (if i can say that), but not necessarily a Blue Dog either. Maybe he can stylize himself as a “Bi-Partisan Democrat” or something. Only time will tell..

Current Challengers:

Democratic:

John MacMurray, a teacher from La Habra

Republican:

Chris Norby, Current Member of the Board of Supervisors

Possibly Brea City Councilman Marty Simonoff, who lost to DuVall in the primary 61%-39%

Possibly Placentia Councilman Scott Nelson

Possibly Former Placentia Councilman Scott Brady

Possibly Linda Ackerman, wife of former GOP Senate Leader Dick Ackerman

Possibly City of Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru

I’ll expand on this a bit later, but for now let’s just stand behind John MacMurray.

It seems that the GOP has found an honest-to-gosh state Senator to take on Harry Reid next year. After signaling his interest in the race all the way back in May, state Sen. Mark Amodei of Carson City, who’s term-limited out of office next year, has launched his campaign for U.S. Senate. From the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

Amodei today announced he will join the field of challengers seeking to oust U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., from his job of 24 years.

“I’d rather run against Harry Reid than every other Democrat in the state,” Amodei said during an announcement from the 16th floor of the World Market Center in downtown Las Vegas, overlooking the Strip skyline. […]

Amodei’s Republican opponents are expected to make hay criticizing him for votes in the state Legislature in support of some tax increases.

“The biggest challenge for any candidate is can you get out of your own tribe’s primary,” Amodei said during a low-key, jovial announcement.

In other words, Amodei may run into some problems with the teabagging base, despite being, according to Nevada political commentator Jon Ralston, “one of the smartest, canniest and, yes, funniest members to grace the rarely hallowed halls in the capital”. That base will certainly have a smorgasbord of options for their pick against Reid, though. In addition to Amodei, other Republican candidates expected to run include ex-Nevada GOP chair Sue Lowden, former SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian and ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (the Club For Growth’s ’06 favorite).

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen

That’s what Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman would like you to believe. Hoffman, as you know, is running to the right of socially moderate GOPer Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens in the special election to replace John McHugh (who one of these days may actually get to serve as Army Secretary). Hoffman’s inked a top-tier GOP polling firm for his campaign, which is a pretty solid tea leaf that he’s serious about running a real campaign. Here’s his first publicly-released poll:

McLaughlin & Associates (8/25-26, likely voters):

Bill Owens (D): 20

Dede Scozzafava (R): 30

Doug Hoffman (C): 19

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Those are pretty remarkable numbers — especially the 20% figure for Owens. (Surely, Owens suffers from a severe case of “Some Dude” syndrome, but that’s a pretty low baseline for a Democrat to be starting at in an Obama district.) Whether or not Hoffman’s candidacy is the deciding factor in this race remains to be seen, but one thing seems probable: he can’t be ignored when handicapping this race.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-23

• CO-Sen: The NRSC got its sort-of-top-tier challenger to Michael Bennet in the Colorado Senate race: former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton filed to form an exploratory committee and launched her campaign website, suggesting that the exploratory period will be a brief one. Norton’s never been elected on her own (just while joined to popular Gov. Bill Owens), but, unlike the rest of the GOP field, she’s at least known statewide.

• CT-Sen, AR-Sen: Chris Dodd finally made his decision about which Senate committee to chair, and he opted to return to Banking, instead of continuing at HELP where he shepherded through health care reform legislation in Ted Kennedy’s absence. He still has a lot on his plate; he’ll be focusing on bolstering financial services regulations and creating a new banking consumer protection agency (all stuff that would seem less likely to happen if Tim Johnson took over Banking). The WaPo says that all signs point to Tom Harkin of Iowa, #2 on HELP, ditching his coveted Agriculture chair to take over HELP. This means the Agriculture chair is likely to fall to Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (bypassing a few other more senior Senators with better chairs), who, while not from a big farm state, is facing a difficult re-election and will benefit from the profile and money that come from a chair.

• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon campaign released an internal poll taken by Anzalone Liszt that’s getting a little stale (taken in mid-May, long before Melancon announced), but that shows Melancon in striking distance. The head-to-head has David Vitter beating Melancon 47-37 (and Melancon winning the bogus “after hearing positive info” vote 49-41). The good news is that Vitter’s re-elect number is down to 39%, with 45% preferring someone new. Melancon has 35/13 favorables.

• TX-Sen: Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst sent a letter to supporters that he’s running for re-election in 2010. While he may be the initial odds-on favorite to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Senate, I wouldn’t take this to mean he’s not running in the Senate special election — since he doesn’t need to give up his seat to run and he’d probably like to keep being Lt. Gov. if he loses the election, and there’s also still a possibility that KBH doesn’t resign after all, if she senses the gubernatorial primary heading south on her. (H/t DTM,B!)

• AK-Gov: No surprise here, but Democratic former state House minority leader and 2008 House candidate Ethan Berkowitz filed his candidacy papers today. He’ll likely face off against Sean Parnell, who inherited the office after Sarah Palin’s re$ignation, but first he’ll need to survive a primary against state Sen. Hollis French and Bob Poe. (Parnell will also need to survive a primary against state Rep. John Harris.)

• MA-Gov: Tim Cahill picked a strange day to make his announcement, on a day when everyone is fixated on the Massachusetts Senate race instead, but today he made official what has long been suspected: he’s running for Governor. The Dem-turned-Independent state Treasurer has a $3 million warchest, giving him a big edge over incumbent Dem Deval Patrick, who has $464K (of course, if Christy Mihos wins the GOP primary, he can put all his expenses on his own tab). Polls that have included Cahill have shown him running neck-and-neck with Patrick, although Cahill is running against tradition — there has apparently never been an Independent elected to statewide office in Massachusetts.

• MN-Gov: I’ve completely lost track of how many people are now running for Minnesota Governor — let’s just say it’s a number somewhere between 10 and 800 — but one more guy got in the race on Labor Day: state Rep. Tom Rukavina, for the DFL. Rukavina is from the town of Virginia in the rural but very pro-union Iron Range.

• OR-Gov: While the Dem side of the Oregon Governor’s race is narrowing, the GOP side keeps growing: former state Senator John Lim from Portland’s eastern suburbs said he’d get in. Lim is best-known for losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden (with a whopping 34% of the vote).

• SC-Gov: While it’s unclear whether “calls for resignation” on Mark Sanford’s part will ever turn into a tangible move for impeachment or just some pre-emptive ass-covering by state Republicans so it looked like they tried, those calls are getting louder. The state’s House Speaker, Bobby Harrell, made the call yesterday, and now there’s talk of a letter with the signatures of at least 60 House GOPers (out of 72, and almost half the entire House) calling on Sanford to step down.

• VT-Gov: As we reported yesterday, Vermont Auditor Tom Salmon did in fact follow through on his decision to switch to from the Democrats to the Republican Party. However, Salmon sounds likely to run again for Auditor, saying there’s a “10% chance” he’ll run for Governor instead. Salmon said that he’d support Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie if Dubie were to run for Governor, and wouldn’t challenge him in a primary. There’s been no word from Dubie, though, on what he plans to do.

• FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson… well, let me try to be kind here and say that he courageously ignores all that conventional wisdom about who and who not to piss off. He’s picking a fight with his hometown paper, the Orlando Sentinel, referring to them in a fundraising e-mail as “a trashy tabloid that dresses up bias and gossip as news.”

• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz may have decided against a run in his current home district, the 24th, but he’s holding a fundraiser on behalf of Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, one of the three GOPers seeking the nod to go against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.

• IL-10: Bob Dold is running for the GOP nomination in the 10th District, joining state Rep. Beth Coulson and rich guys Dick Green and Bill Cadigan. Bob Dold is a lawyer who also owns a pest control business. In keeping with district’s lean, Bob Dold says that Bob Dold is fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

• NE-02: Jim Esch, who’s coming off two back-to-back losses to GOP Rep. Lee Terry, switched his party affiliation to “independent” last week, but said yesterday that he has no plans to seek elected office at any level in the future. Esch defended his decision to the Omaha World-Herald: “I feel a little hypocritical when I go to Democratic parties and say, ‘I’m a Democrat’ when I don’t believe in the party.” (J)

Meanwhile, across town, state Sen. Tom White (who’s apparently still a Democrat) officially launched his campaign against Terry today.

• PA-03: Suddenly there’s a backlog of challengers to Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, the Dem freshman in this R+3 district. Republican Meadville businessman Paul Huber, who ran a heating equipment company and served on a local medical center board, filed campaign paperwork. AG’s office investigator Elaine Surma is already in the race for the GOP, and former Erie County Solicitor John Onorato sounds likely to run.

• PA-06: Here’s a likely minor, but certainly interesting, challenge to Doug Pike (who seems to have the establishment support locked down) in the Democratic primary in the open seat race in the 6th. Manan Trivedi is a Reading native born to Indian immigrants; he is an Iraq vet and a primary care physician. He formally announced his campaign yesterday.

• Redistricting: Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita has gone off the deep end in anticipation of the next round of redistricting in Indiana: he wants to make it a felony to consider politics in the redistricting process. Um… considering that Rokita is a Republican and that Republicans are likely to control the redistricting process post-2010, I don’t quite get it. (And neither do Republican legislators, who are telling him to shut up.)

• Votes: The Hill compiles a list of 23 Democrats who have indicated opposition to “the health care plan moving through the House.” (Nancy Pelosi can afford to lose up to 38 votes.) It’s unclear what “opposition” means, and the rationale isn’t always the same (Eric Massa, for instance, opposes it, but only because he’s stuck in single-payer mode), but it’s an interesting list, generally of the vulnerable and/or the hardcore Blue Doggish (although New Jersey’s John Adler strangely stands out like a sore thumb).

Things are starting to take shape in North Carolina; Elaine Marshall, the state’s Secretary of State and first woman elected to statewide office, looks like she will become the first top-tier Democratic challenger to Richard Burr.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall filed paperwork Tuesday to create a campaign committee to run for the U.S. Senate next year.

“We’ll have a more formal announcement in the future,” said Thomas Mills, a consultant for Marshall. “We were feeling we just needed to get started in moving forward.”

Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis is the only announced Democratic candidate so far. Charismatic former state Senator Cal Cunningham seems likely to get in as well, while former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker and Rep. Bob Etheridge are still considering it.