Swing State Project

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

NormDollar.com, the effort to provide Republicans funding Norm Coleman’s endless legal appeals with disincentive from continuing that funding, is about to reach the $100,000 threshold!

For those unfamiliar with NormDollar.com, basically, anybody who wants to see Coleman finally admit defeat and allow Minnesota to once again have two U.S. Senators can pledge $1 for every day that Coleman prolongs his legal challenges.  To show appreciation for helping progressives raise tens of thousands of dollars that will be used to defeat Republicans in 2010, representatives of the effort caught up with Coleman to personally thank him and to get his signature on the check representing the tens of thousands of dollars that Coleman’s own obstinance has raised for progressives.  You can help the effort cross the $100,000 mark by visiting NormDollar.com and chipping in.  Just one dollar a day to make Norm Coleman go away!

• NY-Sen-B: Steve Israel might have backed down from a primary challenge to appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, thanks to last Friday’s iron-fist-in-a-velvet-glove moment from Barack Obama… but fellow Rep. Carolyn Maloney isn’t cowed. “I respect the choices that every member makes about their future. Steve Israel’s decision to not run for the U.S. Senate was his choice to make, but it doesn’t affect my decision-making process,” says Maloney. She has reportedly told colleagues of her plans to run, but nothing is official yet.

• KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell was tap-dancing like crazy when Chris Wallace asked him point blank on Fox News Sunday whether or not he endorsed Jim Bunning for re-election, restating endless variations on the theme that the race is unfolding and it’s not clear who the players are yet.

• CT-Sen: Another random primary challenger to Chris Dodd has surfaced: Merrick Alpert, a former Air Force officer, aide to Al Gore, and software company executive. Although his online statement about his candidacy attacked Dodd’s “corporate campaign contributors,” Merrick’s previous track record in the leadership of Democratic Leadership for the 21st Century (or DL21C for short), a group for centrist pro-business young Democrats, suggests he may be running to Dodd’s right.

• WV-Sen: Best wishes to 91-year-old Sen. Robert Byrd, who was hospitalized over the weekend as a “precautionary measure” after he developed a fever from a minor infection.

• NY-Gov: Tom Golisano, wealthy gadfly who lost three gubernatorial runs on the Independence Party line, will not be running in 2010, despite some speculation he might run for the GOP nod this time. He’s changing his legal residence from New York to Florida, saying he wants to avoid New York’s high taxes.

• ID-Gov: Weirdo conservative Rex Rammell, who spend a lot his own money to run as an Independent in last year’s Idaho Senate race because of his disdain for Jim Risch (and ultimately had little impact on the race), has caught the political bug and been casting about for a new race. After considering primarying Rep. Mike Simpson in ID-02, he’s now planning to run in the 2010 Governor’s race. He seems to think current Gov. Butch Otter will retire after only one term (although he freely admits, “I could be totally wrong”).

• Redistricting: Roll Call has an interesting piece detailing organizational steps the Democrats are undertaking for the 2010-12 redistricting process. Apparently many felt caught flat-footed for the 2000 round of redistricting, and are wisely revving up years in advance this time.

From the Sunshine State:

Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum launched his fourth bid for statewide office in his hometown of Orlando on Monday, announcing he would try to keep the governor’s office in Republican hands in 2010. …

Since Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision last week to run for the U.S. Senate instead of re-election, Republican political leaders hoping to avoid a primary have rushed to throw their support behind McCollum, 64, a 20-year former Central Florida congressman who ran for the Senate twice during this decade.

McCollum is the first major Republican to announce he would try to replace Crist, although Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson of Osceola County has said he will decide this week whether he would also run.

Partisans with long memories will recall that McCollum was one of the House impeachment “managers” who led the infamous witchhunt against Bill Clinton. He also got beaten by Bill Nelson for the open seat Senate race in 2000, and then lost to Mel Martinez in the GOP primary four years later.

A Mason-Dixon poll released last month showed a tie game between McCollum and the likely Dem nominee, CFO Alex Sink, who of course just got into the race last week. SSP currently rates this race a Tossup.

A few days ago, I wrote a post about the Swing State Project’s mission. I was heartened by the comments, which were very supportive. Nonetheless, certain users have persisted in derailing discussions on this site in exactly the ways I made clear were unacceptable.

To preserve the way virtually all of us want the site to function, we are temporarily suspending the posting privileges of several users who were the worst abusers in the recent NY-Sen-B and UT-Gov posts. If you find yourself unable to comment or post diaries on the site, you are one of the affected users.

If you participated in these derailments but can still post, that does not mean you have our approval. We could have suspended far more people than we chose to. All participants should consider themselves on notice and take care to avoid abusing the site in the future.

If your privileges were suspended, you can request reinstatement after Memorial Day by sending me an email. Reinstatement will not be automatic, and contrition is advised. Note: We will remain exceptionally vigilant should anyone attempt to create a sock-puppet account. Doing so will be grounds for permanent banning.

It gives me no pleasure to do this. We’ve never had to do anything like this before, and I hope we never do again. And to be clear, the vast majority of site users have remained true to the spirit of the site. For this we are very grateful. Yet often the actions of a few can disrupt things for the many, and so we feel compelled to take action. Thank you all for your understanding.

Looks like Dodd’s got a primary opponent, Merrick Alpert:

http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/di…

And here’s his website:

http://merrickforachange.ngpho…

Just looking at the website and the video, I don’t see this guy as the next Ned Lamont, and frankly, I’m for Dodd all the way.  Dodd’s been a great senator in the past and he’s earned a lot of praise from the netroots, and rightfully so.  There have been many times in the past where he’s been a leader on progressive legislation, from Family Leave to FISA, and I’d hate to see him leave the Senate at this point.  I’m well aware of the AIG issue, which I think was a load of crap.  No one worked harder than Dodd (well, maybe Bernie Sanders) to get some accountability at AIG.  If you want to blame someone for that mess, look elsewhere.

That said, I understand that Connecticut voters are rather pissed.  Dodd needs to work to reconnect with his state after his failed presidential campaign.  If he is turned away in the primary, I will support the Democrat, and I hope everyone else does too, and I hope the primary goes ahead without any interference, but I still think Chris Dodd deserves to be reelected.

With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.

Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!

And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	37.73%	39.58%	R+1.85	O+0.5
CA-04	Tom McClintock	31.14%	45.83%	R+14.69	M+10.1
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.83%	41.82%	R+5.99	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.77%	39.29%	R+1.52	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.67%	40.50%	R+4.83	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.63%	42.40%	R+7.77	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	37.81%	42.08%	R+4.27	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.40%	44.77%	R+15.37	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.40%	40.27%	R+8.87	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.02%	44.12%	R+11.09	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.60%	32.94%	D+14.66	O+17.6
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.88%	47.62%	R+15.74	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.94%	46.06%	R+17.12	M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.59%	33.10%	D+16.49	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	59.01%	14.66%	D+44.35	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.63%	21.04%	D+32.59	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.84%	33.45%	D+9.39	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.57%	29.50%	D+17.07	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.80%	40.25%	R+5.45	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.90%	38.77%	R+0.87	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.81%	42.32%	R+5.51	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.06%	39.23%	D+2.82	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.28%	36.59%	D+9.69	O+3.9
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.92%	40.69%	R+4.77	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.69%	38.51%	D+1.18	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.87%	41.34%	R+5.47	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.85%	39.91%	R+3.06	O+4.9
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	38.00%	40.37%	R+2.37	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	35.96%	41.99%	R+6.03	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	36.82%	41.64%	R+4.82	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.80%	41.16%	R+8.36	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.20%	43.36%	R+13.16	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.93%	41.58%	R+10.65	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.72%	39.80%	R+9.08	O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.80%	23.71%	D+29.09	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.66%	18.67%	D+37.99	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.33%	39.32%	D+0.01	O+4.0
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.61%	36.04%	D+4.57	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.61%	20.17%	D+28.44	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.27%	26.75%	D+20.52	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.22%	18.93%	D+32.29	O+44.4
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.08%	33.78%	D+15.80	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.22%	27.88%	D+20.34	O+35.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.92%	11.25%	D+53.67	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	62.00%	16.13%	D+45.87	O+55.9
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.94%	26.85%	D+15.09	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	43.08%	31.46%	D+11.62	O+21.8
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.38%	36.29%	D+9.09	O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

A potentially big score for the Obama team:

President Obama on Saturday selected one of the nation’s leading Republican governors to serve as the ambassador to China, nominating Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman for the diplomatic post that Mr. Obama called “as important as any in the world.” …

Mr. Huntsman, 49, learned to speak Mandarin Chinese during his days as a Mormon missionary in Taiwan. He has worked in two Bush administrations, serving as the ambassador to Singapore in the final year of George H.W. Bush’s term and as a deputy United States trade ambassador for George W. Bush. …

For Mr. Obama, whose advisers already have their eyes set on his re-election in 2012, the selection of Mr. Huntsman is something of a political coup. He has emerged as one of the nation’s most visible Republican governors and was expected to at least consider seeking his party’s presidential nomination to run against Mr. Obama. …

It was far from certain whether Mr. Huntsman would have actually sought the Republican presidential nomination – his centrist views could have created a challenge in early-voting states – but if he is confirmed by the Senate for the ambassadorship to China, he is part of the Obama team at a time when China is of critical importance. And he is out of the mix in the 2012 presidential race.

Utah’s much more conservative Lt. Gov., Gary Herbert, stands to take Huntsman’s place in the governor’s mansion. Discussion underway in safi’s diary.

According to the Associated Press Utah Governor Jon Huntsman will be named Ambassador to China.

http://www.yahoo.com/s/135781/…

This means that Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert will take over as Governor. Utah will have a special election for the race in 2010. But, assuming Herbert runs and our extreme dearth of quaality candidates in the states, I don’t think we’d have a great shot.

I know this may not be the right place, and even if it was its really early, but I can’t help but think of the effect this is going to have on the 2012 Presidential race. Huntsman has been a popular name among political junkies as a guy to run in 2012 and I think a lot of people saw his coming out in support of civil unions as a first step to a Presidential run. But this really squashes a lot of that as I don’t think a guy can win a Republican Presidential primary when his last job was as an Amassador in the Obama administration.

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

So you all know the drill by now – take some VTDs, consolidate them to reflect updated population stats, then piece them together. I couldn’t think of a witty title today either. Oh well.

My goals for North Carolina were to:

• strengthen Kissell (8th) and Shuler (11th)
• draw Foxx (5th) out of her district
• obey the VRA – that is, a majority-black district for Butterfield (1st) and a majority-minority district for Watt (12th)
• maintain percentages for the other Democrats: Etheridge (2nd), Price (4th), McIntyre (7th), and Miller (13th)
• get rid of that touch-point continuity in Guilford County between the 6th (Coble) and the 13th

Update: Many of you have correctly pointed out that NC may be gaining a 14th seat. There’s a plan for that in the works too.

Here’s the new map (yes, everything is contiguous!):

So here are two useful pieces of info that I had:

Here’s average Democratic performance, by consolidated VTD, across 10 contests (US President, US Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, State Treasurer, State Auditor, Commissioners of Agriculture, Insurance, and Labor, and State Superintendent of Education). Average performance in 2008 was 51% Democratic.

Here’s also a map of the minority population of each VTD:

Stats here are: Population, Black Population, Latino Population, Average Democratic and Republican performance, Obama%, McCain%, the number of Democratic and Republican VTDs. SQL is getting angry at me for putting too much data in, so if you want the county breakdown, you’ll have to look here.

So district-by-district:

One of the hardest districts I’ve had to draw. The problem is, with NC’s population growth, each district has to contain more people. Additionally, the majority-minority areas of Northeastern NC have also lost population. Thus, the far reaching tentacles that hit so many counties, including Pitt (Greenville), Lenoir (Kinston), Wayne (Goldsboro), Wilson, Nash (Rocky Mount), Beaufort (Washington), and the list goes on. I like to think of this as the Petey Pablo district (listen to ‘Raise Up’ if you have any questions.) As you can see, we barely cross the threshold at 50.04% African-American. Average Democratic performance is 66.7% – Butterfield’s not in any danger. Obama and Hagan underperformed at 62.0% and 64.5% respectively; Bev Perdue crusied here with 69.3%.

Bob Etheridge’s district has never been that Democratic on a presidential level – Obama winning was a big surprise – but still quite Democratic on a local level. This district reflects that reality as well, but shifted somewhat further south. Etheridge’s home in Lillington (Harnett County) isn’t moved, and Harnett and Lee Counties remain in this district entirely. A large chunk of Republican leaning Johnston County is cut out in the north, replaced by Anson, Hoke, and Richmond counties along the SC border. Instead of anchoring Democratic performance in Raleigh, an updated 2nd finds its strength in Fayetteville.  Average Democratic performance is 54.9%. Obama got 51.4%, Hagan 54.9% and Perdue 55.0%.

This district contains 33 Democratic precincts, which in my mind is 33 too many. However, the 3rd has to accommodate all the parts that would dilute the minority-concentrated 1st district too much, and many of those urban precincts do lean left. This is most evident in Pitt County, where average Democratic performance was 49%. Given the polarized voting often evident in the South though, the rest of this district scores 41.3% overall. Obama severely underperformed, getting 36%.  Hagan and Perdue did better, getting 40% and 47% respectively. This has potential, but it simply isn’t possible to satisfy the VRA and make this district Democratic at the same time.

Mike McIntyre’s district is pretty much like Etheridge’s, more Democratic at the local level than nationally. This district stays with Wilmington and Lumberton, along with a part of Fayetteville not in the 2nd. This district really doesn’t change all that much, other than some traded precincts with the 3rd to make this more Democratic. Obama nudged out a win with 49.7%, 5 points below the average of 54.7%. Hagan and Perdue both did well here at 55.4% and 56.4% respectively.

David Price, we seem to forget, actually lost in the Republican tide of 1994 before reclaiming his district in 1996. The Triangle, of course, has changed quite a bit since then. This district remains centered on Durham and Chapel Hill (52% of the population), with some Republican-leaning sections of Wake County thrown in for another 22%. This district does expand eastward to grab some rural areas that couldn’t fit into the first 3 districts, but Price need not be concerned. It’s 59% Democratic, but this is one of those districts where Obama overperformed (60.7%). A 60.6% showing for Hagan is a testament to the Democratic nature of this district; Perdue did underperform at 57.1%.

Even in the most gerrymandered of states, you still have some examples of compactness. This is this map’s token compact district, if you will. It consists of Wake County only, losing a good chunk of border territory along the Virginia border and an arm into Greensboro (and that touch-point!). It contains all of Raleigh and Cary, along with some suburbs. Another strong Democratic district; average performance is a bit low at 57%, but this is where Obama excelled with 59.9%, an improvement over Brad Miller’s current district, actually.

This is the other half of Brad Miller’s district, featuring the Northern border counties – Person, Caswell, Rockingham, and Stokes. That’s not where the population is though, and to compensate, this district has a southern arm that hits parts of Orange, Alamance, Guilford, and Forsyth counties, including significant parts of Greensboro and Winston-Salem not drawn into Mel Watt’s 12th. Virginia Foxx doesn’t even live in this district, and I have a hard time seeing her winning this 53.8% Democratic district. Obama scored a respectable 52.9%, and Perdue 54.0%. Hagan, being from Greensboro, stomped here with 56.4%.

All the Republicans in central NC have to go somewhere, and this district is it. I think the packing of Republicans is especially evident, given that there are 3 Democratic precincts out of 190. With the Democrats in Alamance, Guilford, Union, and Mecklenburg drawn into other districts, all the Republicans are left here. At 33.3%, this is the most Republican district in NC on average. Obama scored 33.11%. Hagan did comparatively well at 37.3%, and Perdue absolutely bombed here, netting 29.2%. Sue Myrick may have less incentive to retire now.

Mel Watt’s VRA district was significantly easier to draw than Butterfield’s, partially because of the looser requirement. In essence, you have to have the majority-black precincts of Charlotte (Mecklenburg) and the Triad (Greensboro, High Point, and Winston-Salem) along with some connecting precincts. Much like the current 12th, I chose to run this district through Cabarrus, Rowan and Davidson Counties, roughly paralleling I-85. New is an arm into Statesville in Iredell County. In the interest of leaving more high-performing Democratic precincts for the 5th and 8th districts, this district also barely makes the cut at 50.02% minority. Watt’s still in no danger though, at 65.2% Democratic, 65.4% Obama, 66.7% Hagan, and 61.9% Perdue.

Larry Kissell gets a significant boost out of this district, though it becomes much more Charlotte-centric. His home in Montgomery County remains, although with a connecting strip through Stanly and Union counties into Mecklenburg. 72.6% of this district is now in Mecklenburg County, which is nice for Kissell since this district’s part of Charlotte was on average 63.3% Democratic (Obama did better at 66.3%). Overall, this makes for a 57.2% Democratic district; Obama did better at 59.0% and Hagan better still at 59.7%. Even Bev Perdue, who underperformed heavily in Charlotte (where Pat McCrory is Mayor) won, eking out a 400-vote win. This, I think, is a testament to the Democratic nature of this district, which should be safe for Kissell.

This district sets the stage for a Foxx-Coble showdown. I know the core of Coble’s district is actually in the new 6th, but Sue Myrick lives in the Mecklenburg part. Coble also lives in the Guilford part of this district. Funny how that works. (Foxx lives in the Avery County section.) More of this district is Foxx’s, but Coble’s also actually sane. I’ll leave you to decide how a primary between the two works out. The college town of Boone (Appalachian State) is removed, replaced by an arm into the Republican sections of Greensboro and Alamance County. Again, packing Republicans is at work here, with 14 out of 264 precincts being Democratic for an average of 35.8%. Obama got 32.1% (this is Appalachia, after all); Hagan 38.2%, and Perdue 36.9%.

Patrick McHenry’s district doesn’t change too much – he and Heath Shuler trade some precincts in the South to make Shuler’s district more Democratic by removing the vast majority of Republican Henderson County. I had originally wanted to draw a good district for 2008 candidate Daniel Johnson, but another Democratic district in Western NC was simply unrealistic. 15 out of 177 precincts are Democratic, leaving it at 37.1% Democratic, 35.1% Obama, 39.6% Hagan, and 33.0% Perdue.

I really tried to get Heath Shuler a district that Obama won, but it simply wasn’t possible without the district hitting Charlotte. Thus, we’re left with an Asheville-centered district that takes all of WNC to the west, and then sprouts two arms. One arm reaches northeast to grab Boone, and the other goes sawtooth along the SC border to get Forest City (Rutherford County), Shelby (Columbus), and finally, Gastonia (Gaston). This makes a 52.1% Democratic district, with Hagan and Perdue overperforming at 52.7% and 52.4% each. Obama came closer, falling 3,000 votes or 0.9% short, at 48.9%.

And there you have it, a 9-4 map of North Carolina. Without the VRA, it would be possible to squeeze at least one more Democrat out, but you can’t have everything. Questions, comments, and witty remarks about what these districts actually look like welcome.