Swing State Project

It’s that time again: A week from today, all federal campaigns have to close the books on the fundraising quarter. This means that if you want your favorite candidates to be able to issue strong quarterly campaign finance reports, you’ve got to contribute by March 31st.

Now, I’ll be honest – this is one of my least favorite parts of blogging, and it’s certainly one of the less pleasant aspects of politics in general. But money still matters – a lot. If we want to expand our majorities in Congress – and especially if we want to see progressive change – we’ll need a lot of cash to do so. Many big players – including labor unions, progressive organizations, and deep-pocketed donors – will look at these reports to decide which candidates to give to. It may not seem fair or even wise, but it’s reality, and we’ve got to work the system as best we can.

So we’re asking you to contribute to the Blue Majority candidates on ActBlue. These men and women are all strong progressives who are taking the fight to Republicans all over the country. Of course, they can’t do it without our help, which is why it’s the netroots’ duty to get involved.

Right now, the Blue Majority page stands at about 5,500 total contributions (you can see the number right at the top). Our goal is to add a thousand more contributions by the end of the quarter so that we can hit 6,500 overall. The size of your contribution doesn’t matter (though of course, we encourage you to give as generously as you are able to). We’re looking for aggregate numbers of donors. As the Obama campaign in particular has shown, smart campaigns can get a lot of mileage out of small donors, especially those who give early on. (And it’s still early.)

So please, stand up and be counted – make a donation to a worthy Democrat or three. And of course, if your favorite candidates are not on the Blue Majority page, we strongly encourage you to give to them at their own websites. Let’s nail that 6,500 target!

Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R
CT-02 (Courtney) CT-05 (Murphy) GA-12 (Barrow) IL-08 (Bean) IN-02 (Donnelly) IN-08 (Ellsworth) KS-03 (Moore) MN-01 (Walz) NC-11 (Shuler) NH-02 (Hodes) NY-19 (Hall) NY-24 (Arcuri) OH-18 (Space) PA-08 (Murphy) PA-11 (Kanjorski) TX-23 (Rodriguez)	AK-AL (Young) AZ-05 (Mitchell) AZ-08 (Giffords) CA-11 (McNerney) FL-16 (Mahoney) GA-08 (Marshall) IL-11 (Open) IL-14 (Foster) IN-09 (Hill) KS-02 (Boyda) KY-03 (Yarmuth) NH-01 (Shea-Porter) NY-20 (Gillibrand) NY-25 (Open) PA-04 (Altmire) PA-10 (Carney) TX-22 (Lampson) WI-08 (Kagen)	AL-05 (Open) AZ-01 (Open) LA-06 (Open) MN-03 (Open) NJ-03 (Open) NJ-07 (Open) NM-01 (Open) NY-26 (Open) OH-15 (Open) OH-16 (Open) OR-05 (Open) VA-11 (Open)	CA-04 (Open) CO-04 (Musgrave) CT-04 (Shays) IL-10 (Kirk) LA-04 (Open) MI-07 (Walberg) MI-09 (Knollenberg) MO-06 (Graves) NC-08 (Hayes) NV-03 (Porter) NY-29 (Kuhl) OH-01 (Chabot) OH-02 (Schmidt) WA-08 (Reichert)	AL-02 (Open) AZ-03 (Shadegg) CA-26 (Dreier) CA-46 (Rohrabacher) FL-08 (Keller) FL-13 (Buchanan) FL-15 (Open) FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) FL-24 (Feeney) FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) ID-01 (Sali) IL-06 (Roskam) IL-18 (Open) KY-02 (Open) MD-01 (Open) MN-06 (Bachmann) MO-09 (Open) MS-01 (Open) NM-02 (Open) NV-02 (Heller) NY-13 (Fossella) OH-14 (LaTourette) PA-06 (Gerlach) PA-18 (Murphy) VA-02 (Drake) VA-10 (Wolf) WV-02 (Capito) WY-AL (Open)

So here’s something new. Inspired by the likes of the Cook Political Report and CQ Politics, I’ve cooked up this chart of 2008’s competitive House races, sorted by their likeliness to be retained or lost by the incumbent party.

The standard caveats apply here: the ratings shown are only indicative of the current state of the races. As the campaigns become more engaged and more information becomes known, many of these seats will shift position on the chart — some, perhaps, dropping off altogether. That said, there will be opportunities for other races to be added if circumstances call for it.

Got a beef with our take? Want to post your own ratings? Stick ’em in the comments.

This week I had the chance to participate in a candidate forum on veteran’s issues held in Franklin, Venango County.  The forum offered a great opportunity to address several issues important to veterans in the 5th district.  Several weeks ago I spoke with Ed Scurry, one of the veterans who set up the forum, and he mentioned to me the frustration that veterans in the north central region feel in trying to get regular attention from the current congressman.

Understanding their frustration, one of the ideas I offered during the forum is that I will employ a person on my district staff in the position of Veteran’s Liaison.  The top priorities of the Veteran’s Liaison will be to meet on a regular basis with veterans and veterans groups on issues important to them on the local, regional and national levels.  Additionally, I will utilize this person to keep me informed and up to date on all issues important to veterans.  Perhaps the most important part of my idea, and a promise I will keep, is the person I hire as the Veterans Liaison will be a veteran from the 5th district.

I also continue to press my idea that the federal Veteran’s Administration should have the ability to subcontract with local health care providers so elderly and disabled veterans can get health care services closer to home.  I’ve told the story several times during the campaign of Clearfield County veterans who have to travel to Pittsburgh to get cardiac care when we have a state of the art cardiac facility at the DuBois Regional Medical Center.

Another issue of great importance to veterans in the 5th district and across the nation is the issue of concurrent receipt.  It is my firm belief that a veteran’s pension payment and military disability compensation should be kept separated – one should not have an affect on the other.  A veteran has earned their pension and it should not have an amount deducted if they also receive disability compensation.  Additionally, if a veteran has served their country and suffered a service related disability, our nation owes them their disability compensation.  In Congress, I will support veterans receiving their full military pension and, for any disabled veterans, they should also receive their disability compensation in addition to their pension.

As a nation, we owe a tremendous debt to our veterans.  My recently deceased father was a proud veteran of World War II and my father-in-law served in Vietnam.  Also, as county commissioner, I work closely with our county VA Director to make sure he has the funding to adequately serve veterans in Clearfield County.  It’s a sad day when we hear the stories coming out of Congress that they fail to adequately fund services for our nation’s veterans.

————————

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

The DCCC’s Executive Director, Brian Wolff, recently posted on Democratic efforts to take three Republican-held House seats in South Florida over at the Huffington Post. As you are probably aware, there’s been a tremendous amount of controversy over the fact that Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, co-chair of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has recused herself from these three races, despite the fact that we have quality challengers in each. (Rep. Kendrick Meek has also abandoned these candidates.) Wolff had this to say about the controversy:

 

 

This is in keeping with Wolff’s prior comments on how importantly he views this issue:

Brian Wolff, executive director of the DCCC, says the bloggers are making “much ado about nothing,” noting that it’s “customary” for members to remain neutral in races involving GOP members of their respective congressional delegations.

If you, however, take a different view of things, I encourage you to call or write the relevant parties and let them know:

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (campaign office):

E-mail: AskDebbie@DWSforCongress.com

Phone: 202-741-7154

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (campaign office):

E-mail: chris@vanhollen.org

Phone: 301-942-3768

DCCC Headquarters:

Contact form

Phone: 202-863-1500

Continuing through the alphabet

North Carolina has 13 representatives: 6 Republicans and 7 Democrats

The filing deadline was Feb 29, primary is May 6

North Dakota has 1 representative: A Democrat

Filing deadline is April 11, primary is June 10

District: NC-01

Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound

Representative George Butterfield (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None

Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)

Assessment  Unopposed

District: NC-02

Location Central NC, including Raleigh

Representative Bob Etheridge (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2004, Billy Creech raised $130K to Etheridge’s $1 million. In 2006, Dan Mansell raised little

Current opponents None

Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)

Assessment Unopposed

District: NC-03

Location Most of the Atlantic coast of NC

Representative Walter Jones (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 68-32

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents   Marshall Adame

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-04

Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary

Representative David Price (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Augustus Cho

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-05

Location Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA

Representative Virginia Foxx (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Harrell raised $400K to Foxx’s $1.2 million.  In 2006, Roger Sharpe raised $100K

Current opponents Roy Carter

Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-06

Location Central NC

Representative Howard Coble (R)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Teresa Sue Bratton

Jay Ovittore and

Johnny Carter

Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment This is a solidly Republican seat, but Coble is getting old (born 1931) and hasn’t had a serious fight in a while…

District: NC-07

Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic

Representative Mike McIntyre (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Will Breazeale

Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-08

Location Central part of southern NC, bordering SC,

Representative Robin Hayes (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 329 votes out of 121,000

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Larry Kissell raised $800K to Hayes’ $2.5 million; in 2004, Beth Troutman raised $200K to Hayes’ $1.6 million

Current opponents Larry Kissell

Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 20th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it is on the DCCC list

District: NC-09

Location A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC

Representative Susan Myrick (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ross Overby

Harry Taylor , possibly Bill Glass

Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-10

Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC

Representative Patrick McHenry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Steve Ivester

Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: NC-11

Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC

Representative Heath Shuler (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shuler ousted Charles Taylor, raising $ 1.8 million to Taylor’s $4.4 million

Current opponents John Armor, Carl Mumpower

Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%), 90th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NC-12

Location A really weird, snaky district, SC’s “Black” district.  Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem.  It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th

Representative Mel Watt (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Notes on opponents Ada Fisher ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004 he raised $100K, in 2006, $400K.  Watt raised about $500K each time

Current opponents Ada Fisher again

Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-13

Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA

Representative Brad Miller (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Vernon Robinson raised $2.2 million to Miller’s $1.8 million.  In 2004, Virginia Johnson raised $350K to Johnson’s $1.2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  safe

District: ND-AL

Location The whole state

Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 63-34

Notes on opponents In 2004, Duane Sand raised $1 million to Pomeroy’s $1.8 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

At a town hall meeting Tuesday night (it’s a Congressional “district work period”), Debbie Wasserman Schultz had this to say about her abandonment of three strong Democratic challengers in South Florida:

I know there are people here that are interested in a political matter, so I will get that out of the way right at the beginning. If you have a concern about my previous comments about my staying out of the races in South Florida where candidates are challenging Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Ileana Ros- Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart, I will tell you two things:

First off, I have not endorsed any of the three incumbents in South Florida, nor will I, and I do not support their re-election campaign. I am supportive of the Democratic candidates who are running against them. I have never said otherwise.

Second, I have a national role as one of three co-chairs of Red to Blue Program. All candidates, from Florida to Alaska, have criteria that have to be met to get on this targeted list. Let me guarantee that if they fulfill those criteria, these three Democratic Candidates will be part of our Red to Blue Program…period, end of story. We have three co-chairs in order to be able to spread the workload among us.  It makes much more sense to have someone from outside of one’s own region to be able to make the hits necessary.  

But at the same time I am a representative of the 20th Congressional district of Florida, and I think it is absolutely my responsibility to work with my Republican colleagues.

But just one cycle ago, Debbie had an entirely different outlook – and with good reason:

While her moxie during debates over Terri Schiavo and Hurricane Katrina has earned kudos, it has also gotten the 39-year-old rookie into some trouble. She has rankled the longest-serving and most powerful congressman from South Florida, Republican Clay Shaw, by openly supporting his Democratic challenger.

Shaw’s staff said he tried to welcome her to the Capitol by offering advice and temporary office space and was upset to learn that she was helping state Sen. Ron Klein raise money and meet party leaders.  

…  

Wasserman Schultz served with Klein in the state Legislature for 12 years, and they are close friends. She was tapped by Democratic leaders to help with recruitment and said she could not stay out of a competitive congressional race.  

“It’s not good for my relationship with Clay Shaw, but Democrats can’t afford to leave a seat like that uncontested,” she said.

Why was it okay to do things that weren’t “good for her relationship” with Clay Shaw, but not okay to do so with Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balarts? If Debbie Wasserman Schultz values “working with Republicans” more than expanding our majority in Congress, then she should step down from Red to Blue, regardless of how many co-chairs there are. Everyone running Red to Blue needs to be a partisan bulldog.

And, of course, if the shoe were on the other foot, would any of these three Republicans hesitate to stab Debbie in the back? Of course not.

(Hat tip: FLA Politics.)

Elections are my favorite.

Last cycle, Chris Bowers (then of MyDD) launched a campaign to encourage Democrats in safe or unopposed seats to kick in 30% of their cash on hand balance to the DCCC.  Chris dubbed the project “Use It or Lose It.”  Members were identified and contacted (often by constituents) who encouraged the largesse.

At this point in the cycle, filing deadlines have passed for roughly half the seats in the House and a limited NRCC budget means that many House Democrats will face pretty clear sailing in the fall general election.  One thing the fine series of state and district profiles by plf515 proves, is that Democratic seats are on the whole far safer than Republican seats.  A tool like PVI actually underestimates how many of the seats are safe because some southern and Plains representatives pile up nice margins in districts with a Republican or neutral lean in the Presidential contest.

Last night, I saw the pretty much final results of California filing posted on their Secretary of State’s site.  Democrats filed in 51 of the 53 districts (missing CA-19 and CA-22), while Republicans left seven seats unopposed.  One of those candidates, Laura Richardson, faces primary opposition and has a small cash balance so she was left out but the other six were added to my list of cash resources.  

My previous list in a comment relied on my memory and judgement.  I have used plf515’s data for 2006, 2004, 2004 Presidential, and PVI to flesh out the profiles.  Even using Bowers’ 30% formula, the balances would be enough to add a stunning $20 million to the DCCC war chest.  Last time around, Chris shook out over $3 million.  The difference is mostly in improved fund raising now that the Democrats in the House have reclaimed the majority.  So, with some comments, here is the updated list.

Bud Cramer, AL-5  $1,788,433 retiring

Artur Davis, AL-7 $804,308

Davis was unopposed in 2006 and racked up a 75-25 win in 2004.  Bush was held to 35% and the PVI is D+7 in ALabama.  

Marion Berry, AR-1 $494,054

Berry is unopposed this cycle.  Even when opposed he totaled 69% in 2006 and 67% in 2004.

Mike Ross, AR-4 $721,925

Ross is also unopposed.  He won 75% in 2006 and was unopposed in 2004.

Ed Pastor, AZ-4 $1,222,975

Ed racked up 73-24 and 70-26 wins in 2006 and 2004.  His Arizona district sports a PVI of D+14.

Mike Thompson, CA-1 $1,009,587

Thompson posted 66-29 and 67-28 wins in incumbent friendly California in 2006 and 2004.  His district is D+10.

Tom Lantos, CA-12 (deceased recently) $1,375,049

I don’t know what the legal situation is here.  Prior to 1994, the unspent balance of a congress person’s campaign fund was theirs upon retirement.  Now it can only be spent on another federal campaign (Senate, Presidential).  Tom was a Holocaust survivor and clearly other projects would merit funding as well.

Dennis Cardoza, CA-18 $415,825 Unopposed

Brad Sherman, CA-27 $1,630,301

Brad won by 69-31 in 2006 and 62-33 in 2004.  His district is D+13.

Howard Berman, CA-28 $748,436 Unopposed

Henry Waxman, CA-30 $738,512 Unopposed

Xavier Becerra, CA-31 $489,718 Unopposed

Hilda Solis, CA-32 $182,435 Unopposed

Grace Napolitano, CA-38 $274,991 Unopposed

Allen Boyd, FL-2 $1,029,813

The veteran conservative Democrat ran unopposed in 2006 and won 62-38 in 2004.  Although the district is R+2 that is a deceiving number here.

Robert Wexler, FL-19 $1,361,082

Wexler was unopposed in both 2006 and 2004.  Wouldn’t have mattered as his district is a cozy D+21.

Neil Abercrombie, HI-1 $1,044,182

69-31 in 2006 and 63-34 in 2004 in a D+7 district.

Jesse Jackson, Jr.  IL-2 $645,335

I believe he has no Republican opposition and the Illinois primary is over.  Not that that would matter.  Jess Jr. piled up 85-12 and 88-12 margins the last two cycles and his district is an incredible D+35.  No misprint.  D+35.

Rahm Emanuel IL-5 $1,598,801

Rahm won going away piling up 78-22 and 76-24 margins from his D+18 district.  Politics 1 lists no Republican opponent but either way does it matter?

Jerry Costello, IL-12 $1,814,895

Costello was unopposed in 2006 but had a 69-29 cakewalk in 2004.  His district’s PVI is just D+5 but that is not a meaningful number in his case.

Pete Viscloskey, IN-1 $1,538,630

Viscloskey posted a 68-32 victory in 2004 and expanded it to 70-27 in 2006.  His PVI is D+8 in beet red (at a presidential level) Indiana.

Julia Carson, IN-7

Carson is deceased but she left only $118,000 in the bank for her campaign fund.

Ben Chandler, KY-6 $1,024,862

Chandler piled up an 85-15 margin in 2006 against a Libertarian and a 59-40 edge in 2004.  With Ernie Fletcher at the top of the ballot in 2008, Kentucky Republicans have a lot to hid.  Yes, it’s R+7 but he is safe, safe, safe.

Richard Neal, MA-2 $1,680,986

76-23 in 2006; Unopposed in 2004; D+13

Marty Meehan, MA-5 $4,997,012is year’s session to take the job as President of UMASS-Lowell.  Meehan publicly fought against the call to cash in some of his huge hoard calling it “extortion.”  Oddly, he is allied with Common Cause and is the co-father of campaign reform in the House (Shays-Meehan).  He fought against the blogs and group efforts before while he continued to raise obscene amounts to further pad a huge bank roll.  Don’t know if you can chip it now, Marty, but if not, a lot of this should have funded Nikki Tsongas’ campaign for your seat.

John Tierney, MA-6  $1,293.230

70-30;70-30,;D+11

Stephen Lynch, MA-9 $1,189,148

78-22; unopposed; D+15

William DeLaHunt, MA-10 $1,749,866

64-29; 66-34; D+9

Steny Hoyer, MD-5  $1,564,746  D+9

Chris Van Hollen, MD-8 $1,992,828  D+20

plf had not updated in Round 2 for Maryland but these are people who will kick in and will kick in beyond the 30%.  I have said some bad things over the years about Hoyer but he is a prolific fund raiser for other House members.

John Dingell, MI-15 $1,211,399

The old war horse has represented this district for over 50 years, the longest run in the House. Fwiw, his numbers are 76-23 in 2006. unopposed in 2004 and a D+13 district.

Bennie Thompson, MS-2  $848,842

64-36 in 2006 and 58-40 in 2004.  As his money edge grows, Thompson is stretching this out into an automatic re-elect in a D+10 “majority Minority” district.

Earl Pomeroy, ND-At Large $1,130,511

Pomeroy has been a half-hearted GOP target in years past.  The efforts keep getting weaker.

Rob Andrews, NJ-1  $2,383,585

Frank Pallone, NJ-6 $3,250,178

William Pascrell, NJ-8 $1,137,590

Steve Rothman, NJ-9 $2,002,787

Donald Payne< NJ-10 $983,940

All but Payne are rumored to be saving up lest Frank Lautenberg suddenly retire.  Andrews and Payne went unopposed in 2006 and none of the group has scored below 67% in either of the last two cycles.  Payne has a dandy D+34 PVI in his district.

The only other reason to hold on is smarmy Chris Chrisitie, the state’s US Attorney whose mission in life is to prosecute politicians.  Chrisitie was an equal opportunity prosecutor but now goes after only Democrats in order to save his hjob from Rove’s axe.  Crusader Rabbit has been accused of massive corruption himself by Blue Jersey for steering $3 million in contracts to well connected GOP allies and his old firm.  Chrisitie’s reponse is typical” go after Blue Jersey.

Shelley Berkley, NV-1 $1,159,484

Shelley represents Vegas and has 65-31 and 66-31 margins the last two cycles.  D+8  In this case what happens in Vegas should not stay in Vegas.

Steve Israel, NY-2 $1,004,593

70-30 in 2006; 67-33 in 2004; D+8

Carolyn Maloney, NY-14 $1,108,487; D+26

Her margins in this NYC district are 84-16 and 81-19.  It is hard to expand on 81-19 but she did it.

Charlie Rangel, NY-15 $2,265,159

My excel spreadsheet treated Bush’s 9-90 loss in the district as a date (September 1990).  Of course, Rangel runs ahead of his ticket:  he won 91-7 in 2004 and 94-6 in 2006.  His district’s PVI is D+43.

Once the fact or even possibility of a primary is over, these should be cash cows.  Rangel kicked in in 2006.  

None of the rest have election data so:

Marcy Kaptur, OH-9 $846,226 D+9

Darlene Hooley, OR-5 $467,45 D+1 retiring

Allyson Schwartz, PA-13 $1,619,431 D+8

Patrick Kennedy, RI-1 $700,939 D+16

Jim Clyburn, SC-6 $1,065,327 D+11

John Tanner, TN-8 $1,181,776 D+0

Lloyd Doggett, TX-25 $2,337,581 D+1

Ric Boucher, VA-9 $1,191,069

David Obey, WI-7 $1,235,145

Nick Rahall, WV $1,235,145

IIRC, Kaptur was thrust into a battle of incumbents when redistricted.  She may want the nest egg.

Tanner has higher aspirations.  Governor?  He’s a leading blue dog and (in general) many of the blue dogs have been generous within their group but nit so generous with the DCCC universe as a whole.

The total cash on hand for these individuals is a gawdy $66,832,840.  Uding the Bowers allocation of 30%, a maximum of $20,049,852 could be realized.  This is big money.  Half a million per race for 40 races.

Hays Research for the Jake Metcalfe campaign (3/10/08 – 3/12/08):

Jake Metcalfe (D): 45%

Don Young (R-inc): 37%

Democratic Nominee: 41%

Don Young (R-inc): 34%

MoE: ±4.9%

Let’s see, counting this poll, that’s one, two, three, four surveys in a row showing crumb-bum Young trailing his Democratic challengers.

At this point, the biggest danger for Democrats lies in Lt. Governor Sean Parnell’s primary challenge against Young.

(Hat-tip: TPM EC)

I recently caught wind of the following:

Following a week in which the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) lobbed several attacks on Congressman Scott Garrett’s (R-Wantage) skewed priorities, Congressman Steve Rothman (NJ-9) joined the General Wesley K. Clark, Teamsters Joint Council No. 73, New York Governor David Paterson, and numerous New Jersey political figures in endorsing Dennis Shulman’s campaign to unseat Garrett in New Jersey’s Fifth Congressional District.

“After meeting with Dennis and hearing about him from people throughout Northern New Jersey, I am convinced that he will make an excellent Member of Congress.  I am committed to working with Dennis in 2008 so that, together, we can help solve the problems of New Jersey and the nation in 2009,” said Congressman Steve Rothman.

Did you catch that? Rep. Steve Rothman of New Jersey’s 9th congressional district just the other day endorsed Rabbi Dennis Shulman, who is taking on Republican Scott Garrett in New Jersey’s 5th CD. That is to say, an incumbent Dem endorsed a challenger running against a member of his own state’s delegation.

But what does DCCC Executive Director Brian Wolff have to say about endorsements like that?

Brian Wolff, executive director of the DCCC, says the bloggers are making “much ado about nothing,” noting that it’s “customary” for members to remain neutral in races involving GOP members of their respective congressional delegations.

Quick, someone call up Steve Rothman! He’s violating a long-practiced custom! How dare he! Does Chris Van Hollen know about this breach?

Seriously, folks, I think we know this “custom” is bullshit. Debbie Wasserman Schultz herself recognized this back in 2005, when she unhesitatingly supported challenger Ron Klein against fellow Floridian Clay Shaw:

“It’s not good for my relationship with Clay Shaw, but Democrats can’t afford to leave a seat like that uncontested,” she said.

Scott Garrett is a total recidivist crumb-bum, and the people of NJ-05 deserve better. Rabbi Shulman knows this, and that’s why he’s running to replace him. And Rep. Rothman knows this, too, which is why he’s backing Rabbi Shulman. Surely the good folks in South Florida deserve no less from Debbie Wasserman Schultz.