Swing State Project

Posted Wednesday night at West Virginia Blue.

I went to the peace vigil in Shepherdstown tonight. Five years of the occupation already. Some have been at it since before the Iraq invasion and occupation.

The event was moved to O’Hurley’s General Store due to the rain.

I saw many familiar faces from other peace events and political campaigns and I saw new faces as well. There were about 80 people in all in the large room where music and dances are sometimes held.  

It was a good mix of young students from Shepherd College and gray-haired veterans of the Vietnam War and of Vietnam War protests.

It had been cooler during the day, but had warmed after the rain stopped and a fire in the stone fireplace had died down to smoking embers. On a wet day, the wood-smoke made the room seem cozier.

A good friend who I had traveled to Fairmont with to canvass in the last days of the 2004 Kerry-Edwards race was at the entrance collecting money for Central Asia Institute. We hugged and I made a donation and got a couple of sugar cookies and a cup of tea.

There were a pair of guitarists singing. Then I saw Anne Barth, our WV-02 candidate for Congress, standing in the back of the room. She greeted me warmly. She really is a very nice woman. I was surprised to see her there not because she’s not a strong advocate for peace, but because I hadn’t seen any announcement of her attendance. She was there not to politic but to show solidarity with the others who want to support the troops and bring them home from Iraq.

She hadn’t planned on speaking, but one of the singers asked between songs if she would say a few words. Barth kept it brief. She introduced herself and said she remembered the day when Senator Byrd spoke out against the war and how the fax machines buzzed with people agreeing with him and others opposed to him. (Read his speech here.) She said she still gets chills thinking of his speech when he was one of the few voices with the courage in Congress to speak out in opposition before the war.

“Senator Byrd was right,” Barth said and people applauded. “I want to end this war and bring our troops home.”

Barth said she wanted to go to Washington and join him in his efforts to bring the troops home.

“The troops have served honorably. It is time they were brought home,” she said.

When she finished to loud applause, two more singers, a young, college age woman and a grayhaired man did a lovely duet of John Lennon’s Imagine.

It was a good event, solemn yet friendly with people united in purpose.

Afterwards another canvassing partner, JBdem4usa, took me out and bought me a beer, Mountaineer Stout, just like he said he would.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	71	Retiring
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Retiring
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Retiring
CA-12	Lantos	D	D+22.5	80	Retiring
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
CO-06	Tancredo	R	R+10	62	Running for President
IL-11	Weller	R	R+1.1	51	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
LA-04	McCrery	R	R+6.5	59	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring (?)
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Retiring
NJ-07	Ferguson	R	R+0.6	38	Retiring
NM-01	Wilson	R	D+2.4	47	Running for Senate
NM-02	Pearce	R	R+5.7	61	Running for Senate
NM-03	Udall	D	D+5.5	60	Running for Senate
NY-21	McNulty	D	D+8.7	61	Retiring
NY-25	Walsh	R	D+3.4	61	Retiring
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	72	Retiring
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Retiring
PA-05	Peterson	R	R+9.7	69	Retiring
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Retiring

*Denotes impending special election

Vacancies & Resignations

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Resigned*
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Elected Governor*
LA-06	Baker	R	R+6.5	60	Cashing In*
MS-01	Wicker	R	R+10.0	57	Appointed to the Senate*

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CO-05	Lamborn	R	R+15.7	54	Primary challenge
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
GA-10	Broun	R	R+12.7	61	Primary challenge
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues/Primary challenge
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MO-06	Graves	R	R+4.8	44	Potential gubernatorial run
MO-08	Emerson	R	R+11.0	58	Potential gubernatorial run
MO-09	Hulshof	R	R+6.5	50	Potential gubernatorial run
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues/Primary challenge
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Mulling retirement

Jeanne Shaheen has bounced back in the latest ARG

poll, taking a 47% to 33% lead over John Sununu.

The swing is nearly all from independents, who now favor Shaheen 61-13(!).  And 26% of independents are undecided, so they will decide the race as Sununu wins GOP voters 81-1.

I think race has a lot more twists and turns (and swings) ahead.

Disclosure: Member of Joe Garcia’s media team.

I spoke with Joe earlier and he is very appreciative of the enthusiasm and support from the Dailykos, Open Left, and Swing State Project communities on the Blue Majority endorsement and wanted to say thank you. This campaign started in the Netroots and he wants to actively involve the blogosphere and progressive community in his campaign and if elected, in Congress.

Today the campaign released the following statement.

 

We are at a transformational moment in South Florida history and Joe is leading the way with a new vision for our community.

– Revitalizing our economy

– Quality healthcare that's affordable, accessible and reliable

– A real plan to save our Everglades and combat global climate change

– Fixing a Washington that's broken

– A safe and responsible end to the Iraq War

These are the issues that Joe is talking about. This is why a local campaign is now turning into a national movement.

There are many reasons why Joe and this district are a perfect match for progressives. Here are some of my reasons.

The Cuban-American community of South Florida remains one of the last Republican strongholds in the country. A loss here would be detrimental for Republicans and would mean their time with Hispanics is up. A loss here would also be detrimental to the conventional foreign policy thinkers in Washington who gave us the family travel restrictions. Unlike other policitians on the Democratic side in Florida, Joe has shown courage on the Cuba issue and called for the easing of travel restrictions and allowing for the unification of families. This is a stand Rep. Wasserman Schultz and others have refused to take in 70% blue districts, yet Joe is making his case in a 54% Republican one. A victory here would be a clear rebuke of the Washington style of foreign policy. 

With the Everglades in the district, Joe wants to make the environment and taking on climate change one of the most important issues in the race. It would be tremendous symbolically to have someone who cares about the environment and will work to protect the environment, representing the region. Mario Diaz-Balart received a terribly sad 15% rating from the League of Conservation Voters, not a record any Congressman should be proud of, especially not one from such an environmentally important area. The environment hasn’t necessarily been a top issue among Hispanic voters in the past, but in this race, progressives can begin to reach out and speak to them on the topic, particularly in relation to the Everglades.

Joe has also taken courageous stands on the general issues of importance to every progressive.

On the Iraq War, he’s not going to give into Bush, he’s going to take them on.

Our brave men and women have performed honorably. They have done everything asked of them. But the solution in Iraq is not a military solution. I would have voted for funding only if it included a requirement that removed our brave men and women from policing a civil war, brought them home and shifted the responsibility of security in Iraq to the Iraqis. Part of what has to happen is for grassroots and netroots activists to play a bigger role so the Democratic Party finds its courage again. We’ve lost courage in the biggest issues of the day. We tend to be scared off by Iraq, rather than truly supporting our troops by bringing them home.

On Retroactive Immunity he makes a very good point and stands firm against any kind of immunity for telecom companies that broke the law.

The type of broad retroactive immunity advocated by the Bush Administration is not acceptable. The legal purpose of immunity is to use the protection granted by such immunity as an inducement to divulge information about what occurred. Immunity in this case would do the opposite: it would shut down any investigation into what actually occurred.

As the son of two Cuban-American immigrants, Joe also believes it’s critically important we act responsibly on immigration policy. Joe has continuously worked with members of Congress to bring about comprehensive immigration reform. Joe will add diversity to the Democratic Party and be a valuable spokesperson on issues relating to Latin America.

In this election we can accomplish two things. We can elect someone who’s going to lead the progressive cause in Congress and we can send the Republicans packing out of South Florida for good.

Let's make that happen together. Get involved in the campaign and contribute today on Blue Majority's page.

 

(Cross-posted from the AFL-CIO Now Blog.)

 

The fight for a pro-working family government doesn’t end with the race for the White House. Around the country, union members in key states are looking to elect new members of Congress who will help turn around America.

 

The Kentucky AFL-CIO has announced endorsements in key races for U.S. Congress and Kentucky AFL-CIO President Bill Londrigan says these candidates, and the issues they’ll fight for, will help mobilize union members to win this fall.

[We] endorsed on the basis of their of support for the issues of critical importance to Kentucky’s hard working men and women: good jobs, the right to organize, health care for all, retirement security and education and training opportunities.

Topping the list of the Kentucky endorsees is Bruce Lunsford, who’s running for U.S. Senate against Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader who’s led the fight against working family-friendly policies like a real economic stimulus bill and children’s health insurance.

McConnell is behind the strategy of obstruction that has allowed a minority of senators to block important legislation like the Employee Free Choice Act. He consistently has voted for Bush nominees for key federal agencies, including the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MHSA) and the Department of Labor (headed by his wife, the worker-unfriendly Elaine Chao). In short, McConnell is the Senate’s key enabler of the anti-worker agenda. Lunsford has pledged to support the Employee Free Choice Act and to work with union members as they fight to ditch Mitch.

In addition to supporting Lunsford, Kentucky unions gave their strong endorsement to two incumbent House members and a challenger. Endorsements went to Democratic Reps. John Yarmuth of the 3^rd District and Ben Chandler of the 6^th District, as well as to Democratic state Sen. David Boswell, who’s running for the 2^nd District seat left open by retiring Republican Ron Lewis.

Union members were crucial to the stunning 18-point victory for Gov. Steve Beshear last November, and the Kentucky AFL-CIO is looking to build on its success with these endorsements for the U.S. House and Senate.

In addition to working to elect Lunsford and Boswell and re-elect Chandler and Yarmuth, Londrigan says the Kentucky AFL-CIO will focus on exposing the record of Sen. John McCain.

In Oklahoma, state Sen. Andrew Rice is running against Sen. Jim Inhofe, another Republican who regularly votes against working family-friendly policies on health care, wages and the freedom to form unions. Rice, who Oklahoma AFL-CIO President Jimmy Curry called “a good friend of working men and women,” won the endorsement of the Oklahoma AFL-CIO on Tuesday.

In Idaho, where Republican Sen. Larry Craig won’t be returning to the Senate, former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco has won the endorsement of the Idaho AFL-CIO. Idaho AFL-CIO President David Whaley says members of the Idaho AFL-CIO’s Executive Board were impressed by LaRocco’s commitment to working family issues and his visits to work sites around the state.

The working families of Idaho are struggling to raise families, pay their taxes, support education, care for their aging parents and cope with the continued increase in health care costs. Larry LaRocco has been working in jobs all across Idaho and has heard first-hand about the challenges they face in their lives. When he is elected he will continue to work alongside these same families and make sure their voices are heard through his expressed support of the Employee Free Choice Act. We are proud to endorse him for the U.S. Senate.

The effort to elect more working family-friendly members of the House and Senate is an essential part of this year’s unprecedented mobilization of millions of union members.

From The Hill:

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) saw its cash on hand decline $1.3 million between January and February, as it spent more than $1 million on an unsuccessful special election and uncovered that hundreds of thousands were lost in alleged fraud.

The NRCC invested heavily in the race of Republican Jim Oberweis, who unsuccessfully ran for former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s (R-Ill.) district earlier this month. Almost all of the $1.2 million the NRCC spent was recorded in its February report, which was filed Thursday. The alleged illegal funneling of money by one of the committee’s former employees, Christopher Ward, was revealed in a briefing last week.

All told, the NRCC raised $4.6 million in February, but it spent $5.1 million. Its final cash dropped from $6.4 million at the end of January to $5.1 million at the end of February, with $1.9 million in still-unpaid debt.

The NRCC reported its actual cash on hand at the beginning of the month to be $5.7 million, about $700,000 less than previously thought. It paid down just $400,000 in debt.

(Reposted from MyDD)

Ever since the New York Times suggested earlier this month that Oklahoma could be the critical 60th Democratic seat in the U.S. Senate, evidence backing up that statement has been pouring in.

First, Andrew Rice – an Oklahoma state Senator and the only challenger to incumbent/entrenched Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe – became the first U.S. Senate candidate to pick up the endorsement of the Sierra Club.

Earlier this week, we added Oklahoma’s AFL-CIO to Andew’s endorsement list. And Andrew was picked as one of seven top U.S. Senate challengers in Sen. Russ Feingold’s “Pick a Progressive Patriot” vote.

(more below)

Not surprisingly, even though things are changing around him, Jim Inhofe isn’t changing his ways. He’s continuing to vote with a small minority of his party against things like health care funding for pregnant women, better enforcement of product safety regulations (such as lead paint levels in toys), and a budget that would help middle-class families and veterans.

But conventional wisdom is changing, and this week, you can keep the momentum going. Voting for Andrew Rice as the next Progressive Patriot would chip away at the naysayers.  It would put Jim Inhofe on notice that it’s time to retire. And it would help replace Inhofe with someone who listens to the people of Oklahoma and puts the good of the nation ahead of moneyed special interests.

This race is moving into a small set of key races for 2008.  Inhofe is vulnerable – his polling numbers look like those of Conrad Burns and George Allen in 2006.  Andrew Rice is gaining momentum – his recent endorsements and other high-profile groups highlighting this as a key race are starting to break this race open.

Help Andrew this week by voting for him to be the next Progressive Patriot.  We have an excellent opportunity to raise Andrew’s profile on a national level, convince more people that we have a great chance to win this seat, and raise $5,000 from the Progressive Patriots fund – but, between now and Monday, we need your help to do it.

Best,

Karina Henderson

Rice for U.S. Senate

U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Merkley is challenging Republican Gordon Smith for the U.S. Senate in Oregon.

Merkley released a new web vid yesterday about the incredible progressives unifying with the campaign!

Check it out…

Carla–Netroots Outreach, Jeff Merkley for U.S. Senate

continuing through the alphabet

NY has 29 representatives: 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans (5 of whom are on the DCCC list

Filing deadline is July 17, primary is Sept 9

District: NY-01

Location Eastern Long Island

Representative Tim Bishop (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 2,000 votes out of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2004, William Manger raised $1.3 million to Bishop’s $1.9 million; in 2006, Italo Zinzi raised $300K to Bishop’s $1.1 million

Current opponents Lee Zeldin

Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K),

Assessment Safe

District: NY-02

Location Central Long Island

Representative  Steve Israel (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 45-53

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 11th highest income (median = $71K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-03

Location More of central Long Island, especially the south shore

Representative Peter King (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 52-47

Notes on opponents In 2004, Blair Mathies raised $200K to King’s $500K; in 2006, David Meijas raised $900K to King’s $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)

Assessment On the DCCC list , but we need a candidate!

District: NY-04

Location Western part of southern Long Island (i.e. close to NYC)

Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents In 2004, James Garner raised $300K to McCarthy’s $1.7 million.  In 2006, Martin Blessinger raised $100K to McCarthy’s $1.4 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-05

Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens

Representative Gary Ackerman (D)

First elected  1983

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 71-28

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-06

Location Southeastern part of Queens, NYC

Representative Gregory Meeks (D)

First elected 1998  

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Bush margin 2004 15-84

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-07

Location Some of Queens, some of Bronx, NYC

Representative Joseph Crowley (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%),  28th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian), 27th most Democratic (tie with NY08)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-08

Location West side of Manhattan, part of lower Manhattan, southern Brooklyn

Representative Jerrold Nadler (D)

First elected 1992

2006 margin 85-14

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Notes on opponents In 2004, Peter Hort raised $140K to Nadler’s $850K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian)

Assessment Safe.  

District: NY-09

Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Anthony Weiner (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-10

Location A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Edolphus Towns (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 92-6  (! and his opponent was a Republican!)

2004 margin 91-7 (!)

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared, although there is a primary challenger

Demographics 27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic

Assessment You’re kidding, right? He might lose a primary, though

District: NY-11

Location Central Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Yvette Clarke (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 90-8

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 4th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-12

Location Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn (this one won a ‘contest’ for most convoluted map of a district)

Representative Nydia Velazquez (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 90-10

2004 margin 86-14

Bush margin 2004 19-80

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-13

Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC

Representative Vito Fosella (R)

First elected  1997

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents In 2004, Frank Barbaro raised $400K to Fosella’s $1.1 million; in 2006, Stephen Harrison raised $100K to Fosella’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Steve Harrison , who ran in 2006; Domenic Recchia.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment On the DCCC list . superribbie ranks this as the 34th most vulnerable Republican seat.  We can win this one!

District: NY-14

Location East side of Manhattan, and western Queens

Representative  Carolyn  Maloney (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 81-19

Bush margin 2004 24-74

Notes on opponents neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th fewest veterans (6.0%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-15

Location Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens

Representative Charles Rangel (D)

First elected 1970

2006 margin 94-6 (! against a Republican)

2004 margin 91-7

Bush margin 2004 9-90

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), tied for most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-16

Location South Bronx, NYC

Representative Jose Serrano (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 95-5 (!)

2004 margin 95-5 (!)

Bush margin 2004 10-89

Notes on opponents The same guy ran twice, with no money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Lowest income in the USA (median = $19K), most in poverty (42.2%), 2nd fewest veterans (3.9%), fewest Whites (2.9%), 45th most Blacks (30.3%), 15th most Latinos (62.8%), tied for most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NY-17

Location Northern  Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson

Representative Elliot Engel (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 76-24

2004 margin 76-22

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 44th most Blacks (30.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-18

Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC)

Representative Nita Lowey (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents Richard Hoffman ran in 2004 and 2006, and raised less than $100K each time; Lowey raised about $1.5 million each time

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 19th highest income (median = $69K).

Assessment  Safe

District: NY-19

Location Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT

Representative  John Hall (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hall ousted Sue Kelly, with $1.6 million to her $2.5 million

Current opponents Kieran Lalor

Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 15th most vulnerable Democratic seat.  However, Lalor looks like a nut job, so if there’s no better opponent….Several people have rule out running, see the WIKI

District: NY-20

Location Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2006, Gillibrand ousted John Sweeney, raising $2.5 million to his $3.5 million

Current opponents Sandy Treadwell, Richard Wager, John Wallace, Michael Rocque, possibly John Sweeney

Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 8th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NY-21

Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there

Representative  Michael McNulty (D) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 72-20

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents The Democrat is Tracey Brooks ; (others, too, please see the Wiki page, which I just updated) no declared Republican

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment On the DCCC list , superribbie ranks this as the 41st most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the other hand, if no Republicans run, it’s safe

District: NY-22

Location If you picture where NY bends to the west, you’ll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west

Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  George Phillips, Bruce Layman

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: NY-23

Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT

Representative John McHugh (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Robert Johnson raised $160K to McHugh’s $750K

Current opponents Mike Oot

Demographics  8th most rural (65.3%),

Assessment Long shot

District: NY-24

Location Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario

Representative Michael Arcuri (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat; Arcuri raised $2 million and his opponent $1.5 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. On the DCCC list ; superribbie ranks this as the 38th most vulnerable Democratic seat. Of course, with no opponent, it’s safe

District: NY-25

Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse

Representative  Jim Walsh (R) retiring

First elected  1988

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin Unopposed by Democrats

Bush margin 2004 48-50

Notes on opponents In 2006, Dan Maffei raised $900K to $1.8 million for Walsh

Current opponents Dan Maffei is the Democrat, no announced Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Highly vulnerable.  On the DCCC list . superribbie ranks this as the second most vulnerable Republican seat. And, if no one runs….it’s a gimmee!

District: NY-26

Location Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie

Representative  Tom Reynolds retiring

First elected  1998

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 55-43

Notes on opponents Jack Davis ran in 2004 and 2006. In 2006, he raised $2.4 million to Reynolds’ $5 million; in 2004, $1.4 million to $2.5 million

Current opponents Democrats: Jon Powers

Alice Kryzan .  Reynolds just announced his retirement, and Davis is considering running again, as well

Demographics 55th most Whites (92.3%)

Assessment On the DCCC list ; superribbie ranks this as the 27th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: NY-27

Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo

Representative Brian Higgins (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 79-21

2004 margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Higgins beat Nancy Naples, each raising about $1.5 million.  In 2006, Michael McHale raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. On the DCCC list .  But, again, no opponent, so….

District: NY-28

Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip

Representative Louise Slaughter (D)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-25

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Safe

District: NY-29

Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA

Representative Randy Kuhl (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin 51-41

Bush margin 2004 56-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Eric Massa raised about $1.5 million, as did Kuhl

Current opponents Eric Massa

Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)

Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this as the 14th most vulnerable Republican seat

Cross posted from 21stCenturyDems.org.

As I reflect on the Take Back America 2008 conference, I’m thrilled 21st Century Democrats was a partner organization at the event.  We are proud to stand with other great groups like Campaign for America’s Future, Progressive Majority, ACORN, People for the American Way, the Center for Progressive Leadership, and many others who are working hard to change the direction of this country from the disastrous policies of George W. Bush.

For me, one of the highlights of the conference was the roll out of “A Responsible Plan To End The War In Iraq” by Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree and several other Congressional candidates. Darcy explained how a the Bush Administration’s top down approach to ending the war in Iraq has failed to stem the violence and that’s why she drafted the plan and organized fellow Congressional candidates to take a bottom’s up approach by putting forward a plan to end the war.

One of the most important points made during the rollout was the need to change the frame of the conversation about the war from whether the surge is working to what we should be doing to make our country safer.   To shift the conversation we need to get more people involved in this debate. We must talk to our neighbors, friends, family – and most importantly to the candidates where we live – and ask them to sign on to the responsible plan to end the war in Iraq.

We in the progressive community have asked for leadership on ending the war, and now have Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree and several other candidates who have put themselves on the line by not only standing up against the war, but by providing a detailed plan of how the United States can bring our military engagement in Iraq to a responsible end and take steps to restore the checks and balances in our government to make sure we do not make the same mistake again in the future.

You can endorse the plan here. You can also show your support the candidates leading this effort by donating to Darcy Burner, Chellie Pingree or the slate of Congressional candidates who have signed onto the plan.