Swing State Project

It may have taken a few months for it to shake out, but it looks like Louisiana Democrats finally have their candidate in the open seat race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery:

Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche formally announced on Wednesday that he will be a candidate for Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District seat this fall.

While this R+6.5 PVI open seat may not be at the top of the GOP’s list of worries this November, Carmouche’s candidacy will bring a real fight to the Republicans.  So sayeth CQ:

Carmouche’s decision contributed to CQ Politics’ change of its rating on the 4th District race to Leans Republican, a category for highly competitive races, from Safe Republican, a designation applied to contests that the GOP appears certain to win.

Carmouche is the longtime district attorney in Caddo Parish, which includes Shreveport, the population center for the 4th District and the third most-populous city in Louisiana. […]

Carmouche is not seeking re-election this year as district attorney, an office he has held since 1979. Democratic officials cite his long background in law enforcement and his conservative views on social issues, including his opposition to abortion and gun control measures, as among the reasons they think he will be able to overcome the district’s tilt toward the Republicans in presidential election years.

Not exactly the next John Yarmuth, but I’ll take what I can get in a district this red — as long as it gives the GOP some more heartburn.  The results from the May 3rd special election to fill Richard Baker’s seat in LA-06 (also R+6.5) could prove to be something of a bellwether here.

The Washington Post has picked up on our frustration with Debbie Wasserman Schultz:

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) is getting brutally walloped in the liberal blogosphere for refusing to endorse the Democratic challengers to three potentially vulnerable GOP incumbents in Florida.

Liberal bloggers are irate that Wasserman Schultz, who co-chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red-to-Blue program, has declined to endorse the Democrats running to unseat Cuban American Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and his brother, Mario Diaz-Balart.

Wasserman Schultz says she doesn’t want to stab GOP members of her own delegation in the back. But liberal bloggers say she’s killing her own while aiding and abetting the enemy.

I should note, of course, that it’s not just the netroots who are up in arms over this – local Democratic leaders in South Florida are furious, too.

The DCCC’s executive director, however, totally dismisses the concerns of both groups:

Brian Wolff, executive director of the DCCC, says the bloggers are making “much ado about nothing,” noting that it’s “customary” for members to remain neutral in races involving GOP members of their respective congressional delegations.

It may be “customary,” but it’s dead wrong – and Rahm Emanuel fought tooth-and-nail against that decrepit, lazy philosophy. Once upon a time, even Debbie Wasserman Schultz herself did, too. It’s sad to see a proud, strong organization like the DCCC resign itself to tolerating this sort of absenteeism. I have to imagine Rahm’s heart aches to see this.

Debbie, for her part, accuses us of getting things wrong:

Defending herself against the attacks, Wasserman Schultz told us, “The blogosphere sometimes turns into a game of telephone.” She said the bloggers are missing a key point: “I have not endorsed any of the three incumbents, and I don’t support their reelection campaigns.”

Wasserman Schultz said she supports electing Democrats to Congress but that she has to “balance” her political role at the DCCC with her role as a member of the Florida delegation.

Of course, we never accused her of formally “endorsing” any Republican. We have, however, laid out a clear bill of particulars:

1) No Democrat should be permitted to recuse him or herself from campaigning on behalf of fellow Democrats – especially not the co-chair of the Red to Blue program.

2) No Democrat should gush to the press about how wonderful any particular Republican elected official is, especially not those targeted for defeat.

3) No Democratic party organization, the DCCC included, should tolerate either of the above two behaviors.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz is allegedly “frustrated” with us bloggers and wants us “off her back.” (I can only assume this applies to the unhappy local Dems in S. Fla., too.) But if she really cared what we think, she or a staffer could have easily reached out to the netroots. Wolff’s dismissive statement makes it pretty clear that we’re seen as just a minor nuisance.

So it’s time we made our voices heard. If you have a problem with the co-chair of the Red to Blue program saying she won’t campaign for our excellent Democratic candidates Annette Taddeo, Joe Garcia & Raul Martinez, please let her and the DCCC know about it. Whatever you say or write, I urge you to be firm but exceedingly polite. Our message is strong and true – we don’t need to cloud our cause by giving those in power an easy out to attack the messenger.

And what are we asking for? We want Debbie Wasserman Schultz to vocally endorse our South Florida trio and do everything she can to help them get elected (including hosting a fundraiser for each). If she won’t do that, then we’d like her to resign from Red to Blue. And we also want the DCCC to stop tolerating Members of Congress who want to “remain neutral” in contested races.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (campaign office):

E-mail: AskDebbie@DWSforCongress.com

Phone: 202-741-7154

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (campaign office):

E-mail: chris@vanhollen.org

Phone: 301-942-3768

DCCC Headquarters:

Contact form

Phone: 202-863-1500

Please do not contact Congressional offices as this is purely a political issue. Just keep in mind what we’re fighting for, be polite, and let’s remind the folks in charge that our opinions matter.

From the Daily News:

GOP sources confirm that Rep. Tom Reynolds, a Western NY Congressman since 1999 and ex-NRCC chairman, will announce around noon tomorrow in Buffalo that he will not seek re-election this fall. Reynolds spokesman LD Platt did not return an e-mail seeking comment.

Reynolds of course was NRCC chair just last cycle, presiding over both the Mark Foley page scandal and his party committee’s fundraising scandal. His departure shoots this R+3.5 seat up the takeover charts, and the great news is that we already have an excellent candidate here in Iraq war vet Jon Powers. I’m even more excited about this race now.

P.S. Powers campaigned today with fellow Democrats Dan Maffei and Eric Massa in Rochester, raising the issue of how we care for our veterans. He blogged about it here.

P.P.S. (James Hell) I guess those earlier rumors that Reynolds shot down came true, after all.

The Washington Post’s “The Sleuth” column credited the ‘liberal blog” Swing State Project with raising the issue of Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s resistance to campaign for south Florida Democrats this afternoon (3/19).  In fact, the Post went further, crediting SSP’s nickname of “Debbie Dubya” for making the issue stick.  Kos’s support was mentioned as a sign that the issue had taken hold in the blogosphere.

Natch, the company town paper did say that it was customary for homestate congress critters to give their colleagues a break (known to us in the blogosphere as a free pass).

It certainly seems that this one hit pay dirt.  Go get ’em, Mr. Van Hollen.  The seat you take over will certainly be a Republican one.  Wonder why the same group didn’t howl about the mid-term redistricting of Tom DeLay in Texas, the failure to count votes in Florida in 2000, or the outrageous Republican gerrymanders in so many states.  They were rather sad, however, when moderate Republican Connie Morrella was replaced by upstart Democrat Chris Van Hollen.  Poor, poor moderates.

Continuing through the alphabet

NJ has 13 representatives: 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans

Filing deadline April 7, primary June 3

NM has 3 representatives: 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat

Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is June 3

District: NJ-01

Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE

Representative Robert Andrews (D) may retire to run for senate

First elected 1990

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 75-25

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents In 2004, Daniel Hutchison raised $200K to Andrews $800K

Current opponents No declared Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe for Democrats

District: NJ-02

Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic

Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-03

Location The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.

Representative Jim Saxton (R) retiring

First elected  1984

2006 margin 58-41

2004 margin 63-35

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Rich Sexton raised $161K to Saxton’s $1.3 million

Current opponents John Adler

Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  With Saxton out, this swing district is prime pickup territory.  It’s on the DCCC list , and superribbie ranks it the most vulnerable seat.

District: NJ-04

Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton.  Bordering PA and the Atlantic

Representative Christopher Smith (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 67-32

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Josh Zeitz

Demographics 63rd highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable superribbie ranks this 77 of all Republican seats

District: NJ-05

Location Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs

Representative Scott Garrett (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Each raised about $500K, Garrett about $1 million in each

Current opponents Dennis Shulman and

Camille Abate

Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 55th of all Republican seats.  Garrett’s winning percentage is shrinking, he did no better than Bush in 04, and that won’t be enough in ’08.

District: NJ-06

Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park

Representative Frank Pallone (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 69-30

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-07

Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter ?.

Representative Michael Ferguson (R) retiring

First elected  2000

2006 margin 49-48

2004 margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Linda Stender raised $1.9 million to Ferguson’s $3 million; in 2004, Steve Brozak raised $800K to Ferguson’s $2.8 million

Current opponents Linda Stender is running again, as is Upendra Chivakula and a few Republicans

Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)

Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 8th of all Republican seats, and it’s on the DCCC list .  This is a competitive race near NYC, so all you NYC kossacks with time on your hands… this is a spot (but don’t ignore our own Vito Fosella, NY-13). Prime pickup material – Stender almost beat a fairly moderate Republican incumbent.  

District: NJ-08

Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange

Representative Bill Pascrell (D)

First elected   1996

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jose Sandoval raised $200K to Pascrell’s $1 million; in 2004, George Aijan raised $100K to Pascrell’s $900K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-09

Location Close NYC suburbs

Representative Steve Rothman (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)

Assessment safe

District: NJ-10

Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs

Representative Donald Payne (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin No major party opposition

Bush margin 2004 18-82

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 25th fewest Whites (56.4%), 16th most Blacks (21.4%), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-11

Location Central northern NJ, including Dover

Representative Rodney Freylinghuysen (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 68-31

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Tom Wyka , who lost in 2006

Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-12

Location Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic

Representative Rush Holt (D)

First elected 1998

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bill Spadea raised $350K to Holt’s $1.6 million.  In 2006, Joseph Sinagra raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)

Assessment Almost totally safe

District: NJ-13

Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap

Representative Albio Sires (D)

First elected  2006 (special election to replace Menendez, who became Senator)

2006 margin 78-19 (regular election)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 31-69

Notes on opponents None raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NM-01

Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert

Representative Heather Wilson (R) probably retiring to run for Senate

First elected  1998

2006 margin 861 votes out of 211,000

2004 margin 54-46

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2004, Richard Romero raised $2 million to Wilson’s $3.4 million; in 2006, Patricia Madrid raised $3.3 million to Wilson’s $5 million

Current opponents Martin Heinrich ; Rebecca Vigil-Giron ; Jessica Wolfe ; Robert Pidcock are the Democrats

Demographics 86th fewest Whites (48.5%),  92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)

Assessment Very vulnerable. superribbie  ranks it the 4th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list .

District: NM-02

Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico

Representative Steve Pearce (R) probably retiring to run for Senate

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2004, Gary King raised $1.1 million to Pearce’s $2 million; in 2006, Albert Kissling raised $180K to Pearce’s $1.3 million

Current opponents Bill McCamley who wrote on Daily Kos

Albert Kissling , the 2006 candidate, and  

Frank McKinnon are the Democrats

Demographics 20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)

Assessment Vulnerable, superribbie ranks it the 28th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list

District: NM-03

Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT.

Representative Tom Udall (D) retiring to run for Senate

First elected  1998

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Don Wiviott

Benny Shendo

Harry Montoya

Ben Lujan

and

Rudy Martin

are the Democrats

Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. superribbie ranks it the 30th most vulnerable Democratic seat  

Yesterday, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley became the first U.S. Senate challenger to sign on to A Responsible Plan To End The War In Iraq.”

Click on the video to below to see Jeff Merkley discuss signing on to the Plan:

Carla–Netroots Outreach, Jeff Merkley for Oregon

Nebraska has 3 representatives: All Republican

Filing deadline was March 3, primary is May 13

Nevada has 3 representatives: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat

Filing deadline is May 16, primary is Aug 12

New Hampshire has 2 representatives: Both Democrats

Filing deadline is June 13, primary is Sept 9

District: NE-01

Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha.  Borders MO and IA

Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Fortenberry beat Matt Connealy, while raising $1.2 million to Connealy’s $1 million.  In 2006, Maxine Moul and Fortenberry each raised about $1 million

Current opponents Max Yashirin (site in development)

Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NE-02

Location Omaha and suburbs

Representative  Lee Terry (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Notes on opponents In 2004, Nancy Thompson raised $900K to Terry’s $1.4 million.  In 2006, Jim Esch raised $400K to Terry’s $1 million

Current opponents Jim Esch ,

Richard Carter (who blogs at Daily Kos: list of Richard Carter diaries

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment One can’t say we’re the favorites, here, but I think we have some chance

District: NE-03

Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS

Representative Adrian Smith (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 75-24

Notes on opponents In 2006, Scott Kleeb made this a close race, raising $1 million to Smith’s $1.2 million

Current opponents Jay Stoddard and Paul Spatz

Demographics 33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 6th most Republican

Assessment Long shot.  Kleeb is running for Senate, which is probably an easier race to win

District: NV-01

Location Las Vegas

Representative Shelley Berkley (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 66-31

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 55th most Latinos (28.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: NV-02

Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ

Representative Dean Heller (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat. Heller and his opponent, Jill Derby, each raised about $1.6 million

Current opponents Jill Derby is running again

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%),

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this the 38th most vulnerable Republican seat.  This may depend on how fed up the military gets with the Republicans and Iraq

District: NV-03

Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs

Representative Jon Porter (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 48-47

2004 margin 54-40

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tessa Hafen raised $1.5 million to Porter’s $3 million.  In 2004, Tom Gallagher and Porter each raised around $2.5 million

Current opponents Andrew Martin and Barry Michaels and Robert Daskas

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable.  superrribie (link above) ranks this the 21st most vulnerable Republican seat

District: NH-01

Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shea-Porter did something very unusual: She ousted an incumbent while spending much less than the incumbent ($300K to $1 million).  A people-powered progressive, she has turned down opportunities from the DCCC.

Current opponents Jeb Bradley wants a rematch. John Stephen doesn’t want him to have one.

Demographics 55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment  Although superribbie ranks this the 10th most vulnerable Democratic seat, I think this is one where models fail.

District: NH-02

Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA

Representative Paul Hodes(D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hodes ousted Charles Bass, raising $1.6 million to Bass’ $1.2 million.

Current opponents Jim Steiner.

Demographics 57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).

Assessment  Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this the 24th most vulnerable Democratic seat

On Friday, the DCCC released its list of 90 targeted races (both offense and defense) to watch this year. We’ve transcribed the full list in a few handy charts below — have a look. Italics denote the races that have been given “Red to Blue” status so far.

Offense:

District	Incumbent	District	Incumbent	District	Incumbent
AL-02	OPEN (Everett)	IL-06	Peter Roskam	NY-03	Peter King
AK-AL	Don Young	IL-10	Mark Kirk	NY-13	Vito Fossella
AZ-01	OPEN (Renzi)	IL-11	OPEN (Weller)	NY-25	OPEN (Walsh)
AZ-03	John Shadegg	KY-02	OPEN (Lewis)	NY-26	Thomas Reynolds
CA-04	OPEN (Doolittle)	LA-04	OPEN (McCrery)	NY-29	Randy Kuhl
CA-26	David Dreier	LA-06	OPEN (Baker)	OH-01	Steve Chabot
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	MD-01	OPEN (Gilchrest)	OH-02	Jean Schmidt
CO-04	Marilyn Musgrave	MI-07	Tim Walberg	OH-14	Steve LaTourette
CT-04	Chrissy Shays	MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	OH-15	OPEN (Pryce)
FL-08	Ric Keller	MN-03	OPEN (Ramstad)	OH-16	OPEN (Regula)
FL-09	Gus Bilirakis	MN-06	Michele Bachmann	PA-03	Phil English
FL-13	Vern Buchanan	MO-06	Sam Graves	PA-06	Jim Gerlach
FL-15	OPEN (Weldon)	MO-09	OPEN (Hulshof)	PA-18	Tim Murphy
FL-18	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	NC-08	Robin Hayes	VA-02	Thelma Drake
FL-21	Lincoln Diaz-Balart	NJ-03	OPEN (Saxton)	VA-10	Frank Wolf
FL-24	Tom Feeney	NJ-07	OPEN (Ferguson)	VA-11	OPEN (Davis)
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	NM-01	OPEN (Wilson)	WA-08	Dave Reichert
IA-04	Tom Latham	NM-02	OPEN (Pearce)	WV-02	Shelley Moore-Capito
ID-01	Bill Sali	NV-02	Dean Heller	WY-AL	OPEN (Cubin)
		NV-03	Jon Porter

Defense:

District	Incumbent	District	Incumbent	District	Incumbent
AZ-05	Harry Mitchell	IN-02	Joe Donnelly	NY-24	Mike Arcuri
AZ-08	Gabrielle Giffords	IN-08	Brad Ellsworth	NC-11	Heath Shuler
CA-11	Jerry McNerney	IN-09	Baron Hill	OH-18	Zack Space
CT-02	Joe Courtney	IA-03	Leonard Boswell	PA-10	Chris Carney
CT-05	Chris Murphy	KS-02	Nancy Boyda	PA-04	Jason Altmire
FL-16	Tim Mahoney	KY-03	John Yarmuth	PA-08	Patrick Murphy
FL-22	Ron Klein	MN-01	Tim Walz	TX-17	Chet Edwards
GA-12	John Barrow	NH-01	Carol Shea-Porter	TX-22	Nick Lampson
GA-08	Jim Marshall	NH-02	Paul Hodes	TX-23	Ciro Rodriguez
IL-08	Melissa Bean	NY-19	John Hall	WI-08	Steve Kagen
IL-14	Bill Foster	NY-20	Kirsten Gillibrand

With Bud Cramer springing his retirement at the end of last week, there was bound to be a great deal of soul-searching and activity in AL-05 over the weekend. The best example is State Senator Tom Butler (D R – Madison) who, after talking it over with Republican Gov. Bob Riley, has apparently decided to discard the Democratic party label which got him elected to three terms in the State House and four terms in the State Senate as he's expected to switch parties and run for Cramer's seat as a Republican.

I'm sure Riley has promised Butler his full support (demonstrating the weakness of the Republican bench in North Alabama if they're scrambling for a party switcher), but Butler might want to be careful what he's asked for. Riley has never demonstrated particularly long coattails and they're bound to be even shorter in North Alabama. Republicans have lost four out of Alabama's last five special legislative elections; all of which were aggressively targeted by Riley and the Republican Party.

The most poignant of Riley's many defeats was at the hands of Democratic Butch Taylor in HD22, which lies within AL-05. For weeks after the seat opened up, all Republicans could talk about was how the district's demographics favored a conservative Republican and how "Democrats are scared to death." Sounds sorta familiar doesn't it? Riley made a few trips to the district and raised funds for the Republicans, only to see it all blow up in his face as Taylor walked away with a 16-point victory. It's the same story all over Alabama, from the election of James Fields in rural Cullman to primaries in safe-Republican seats:

Riley endorsed Randy McKinney. He was heavily favored but lost to Trip Pittman. This district is one of the most republican in the state. It is also one of Riley's top counties for popularity and job approval. McKinney led the field of four strong candidates in the first primary and had all the Montgomery money endorsements. However, Riley's endorsement created a backlash and elected Pittman.

The lesson learned by Riley is Alabamians resent a politician arrogantly trying to get involved in another race. All politics is local. These two maxims have withstood the test of time.

When thinking about the question a few months back, Doc's Political Parlor also had a hard time coming up with a successful Riley-backed candidate:

Can someone help me think of a candidate who was elected with Riley’s support that would have otherwise lost?  Not Luther Strange, Drayton Nabers, Randy McKinney… SD 17 incumbent Jack Biddle was more of a Riley man than his opponent Scott Beason but lost.

While Butler’s party switch is mildly damaging to Democratic chances of holding this seat, it’s not nearly as bad as some Republicans will attempt to spin it as. Being viewed as Riley’s boy in this race seems like it’ll be bound to hurt Butler. And I’m not sure how fired up local Republicans will be about his candidacy considering Butler’s been working and running against them as a Democrat for decades; I imagine they’ll find it rather difficult to let bygones be bygones.