Swing State Project

• IL-14: Novak claims that “important Illinois Republicans are urging” Jim Oberweis to drop out of the general election battle for Dennis Hastert’s old seat.  While not surprising, given Oberweis’ disastrous showing last week, such pleas are not likely to have any effect on the stubborn Oberweis, other than further damaging his credibility.

  It doesn’t help when other GOP candidates in Illinois, such as state Rep. Aaron Schock in IL-18, are giving quips such as this one:

  “Anybody in Illinois who knows Jim Oberweis knows that was not a referendum on the Republican Party; it was a referendum on Jim Oberweis,” Schock said. “The Republicans didn’t lose that race; Jim Oberweis lost that race.

  “The people that knew him best, liked him least.”

• MN-03: In what is shaping to be a surprising upset, Ashwin Madia, a young attorney and Iraq veteran, is closing in on the DFL endorsement for the nomination to contest the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad.  At conventions across the district yesterday, Madia won many more delegates than his rival, state Senator and once-presumptive front runner Terri Bonoff.  Both Madia and Bonoff have pledged to abide by the DFL endorsement, but the math is looking very bleak for Bonoff; Madia is less than 10 delegates away from the 95 he needs to clinch the endorsement.

  An internal poll commissioned by the Bonoff campaign showed Bonoff beating GOP state Rep. Eric Paulsen by a 44%-40% margin in a hypothetical general election match-up, while Madia trails by 43%-40%.  In any event, this will be a top tier contest.

• New Mexico: In a slate of “preprimary” nominating conventions, candidates for federal office in both parties had to cross a 20% threshold to make it onto the primary ballot.  As a result, some of the House primaries are a bit clearer.
  • NM-01: Martin Heinrich won 56% of the preprimary vote to Michelle Lujan-Grisham’s 28%.

    On the GOP side of the aisle, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White won 85% of the vote, leaving him unopposed on the primary ballot.

  • NM-02: Democrat Bill McCamley won 48.8% of the vote to Harry Teague’s 36.5%.  No other candidates qualified for the primary ballot.

    Rancher and businessman Aubrey Dunn, Jr. won the GOP vote with the support of 30% of delegates.  Businessmen C. Earl Greer and Ed Tinsley both also qualified for the ballot with 24% each.

  • NM-03: Ben R. Luján won 40% of delegates, and will face off against former Senate candidate Don Wiviott, who qualified for the primary ballot with 30% of the vote.
• MI-09: Jack Kevorkian is running for Congress as an independent against Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg and Democratic challenger Gary Peters.  Oy.
• MD-01: The biggest joke of all?  The so-called “moderate” Republican Main Street Partnership is planning on endorsing Andy Harris, the Club For Growth nutcase who successfully dislodged anti-war GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest last month.  Gilchrest, on the other hand, plans to administer a written exam to any candidate seeking his endorsement:
  

  Included in that test would be questions about the history of the Middle East over the past 200 years, the economic and ecological history of the Chesapeake Bay, the importance of paying attention to unemployment and various other subjects, Gilchrest said.

  “I will endorse someone that has knowledge, integrity, is competent and sees the world in a panoramic manner in all its complexities and not through a bent straw,” Gilchrest said.

  Citing a retired Marine Corps general who has been highly critical of the Bush administration’s decision to go to Iraq, Gilchrest went on to say that “we must stop promoting incompetence in return for party loyalty.”

• IN-07: Andre Carson may be the newest kid on the block in Washington, but he still has a potentially raucous primary contest to clear in May before he gets too comfortable:
  

  State Rep. David Orentlicher officially launched his campaign Wednesday alongside Martin Luther King Jr.’s nephew, Derek King, while former health commissioner Woody Myers was set to launch television advertisements.

  State Rep. Carolene Mays will also pose a tough challenge to the newest congressman.

• AZ-03: This looks like fun.  Former state Rep. Steve May has filed to run against John Shadegg in the Republican primary.  May has previously pledged to spend $1 million on the bid.

Man, I sure do miss the Debbie Wasserman Schultz of old. Just one cycle ago, she was utterly unafraid to stand up for her party and campaign fiercely on behalf of her fellow Democrats:

While her moxie during debates over Terri Schiavo and Hurricane Katrina has earned kudos, it has also gotten the 39-year-old rookie into some trouble. She has rankled the longest-serving and most powerful congressman from South Florida, Republican Clay Shaw, by openly supporting his Democratic challenger.

Shaw’s staff said he tried to welcome her to the Capitol by offering advice and temporary office space and was upset to learn that she was helping state Sen. Ron Klein raise money and meet party leaders.

…

Wasserman Schultz served with Klein in the state Legislature for 12 years, and they are close friends. She was tapped by Democratic leaders to help with recruitment and said she could not stay out of a competitive congressional race.

“It’s not good for my relationship with Clay Shaw, but Democrats can’t afford to leave a seat like that uncontested,” she said.

What happened to DWS? Why are things all of a sudden so different? She took a big gamble taking on Shaw like that – Klein could easily have lost, and the Dems could very well have remained in the minority. Note that the article is from 2005, when Dem prospects didn’t look nearly so bright as they later would. Also note the URL – Debbie was proud enough of that piece to re-print it on her own website.

Now, Debbie Dubya has far less to lose – and yet she’s being far more hesitant. In fact, she’s being downright destructive toward Raul Martinez, Joe Garcia and Annette Taddeo, all in the name of “bipartisan comity.” Debbie was right two-and-a-half years ago – Dems couldn’t afford to leave a seat like Clay Shaw’s uncontested. And they can’t afford to leave FL-18, FL-21 & FL-25 anything less than vigorously contested this cycle, either.

Continuing through the alphabet….

Mississippi has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

The filing deadline was Jan 11, and the primary was on March 11

Missouri has 9 representatives: 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats

Filing deadline is March 25, primary is Aug 5

Montana has one representative, a Republican

Filing deadline is March 20, primary is June 3

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo

Representative None (Wicker became Senator), election on April 22

First elected  

2006 margin

2004 margin

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Democrats: Travis Childers

Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment Long shot

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2006, Yvonne Brown raised $100K to Thompson’s $1.4 million; in 2004, Clinton LeSeuer raised $300K to Thompson’s $700K

Current opponents Richard Cook (Thompson is also being primaried)

Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2$, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, ot Starkville, in the northeast.  Borders both LA and AL

Representative Chip Pickering (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 78% against minor parties

2004 margin 80% against minor parties

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Randy Eads

Demographics  18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%), 51st most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

First elected  1989

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents In 2004, Michael Lott raised $90K to Taylor’s $400K

Current opponents John McCay

Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K), 34th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe.  OK, Taylor is a very conservative Democrat.  But he wins easily in a district that Bush took by more than 30 points in 04 and 08

District: MO-01

Location St. Louis

Representative William Lacy Clay (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 31st most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MO-02

Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city

Representative Todd Akin (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Mike Garman

Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: MO-03

Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs

Representative Russ Carnahan (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents  In 2004, this was an open seat (formerly occupied by Gephardt), and Carnahan beat Bill Federer with each spending about $1.3 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents David Bertelson, Chris Sander

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City

Representative Ike Skelton

First elected   1976

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 66-32

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 87th most Republican

Assessment safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs

Representative  Emanuel Cleaver (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 55-42

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Cleaver was out-spent $3.2 million to $1.5 million by Joanne Patterson.  In 2006, his opponent raised little money

Current opponents Jacob Turk

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MO-06

Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS

Representative Sam Graves (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2004, Charlie Broomfield spent $900K to Graves’ $1.7 million.  In 2006, Sara Jo Shettles spent $130K to Graves’ $1.2 million

Current opponents Kay Barnes

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable.  Barnes is Mayor of Kansas City, and has raised $656K already.   superribbie ranks this the 42nd most vul. Republican seat

District: MO-07

Location Southwestern MO, bordering KS, OK, and AR, including Joplin

Representative Roy Blunt (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 70-28

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Newberry raised $200K to Blount’s $3.5 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)

Assessment long shot

District: MO-08

Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.

Representative Jo Ann Emerson (R)

First elected 1996

2006 margin 72-26

2004 margin 72-27

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Joe Allen (no apparent site)

Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 87th most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City

Representative Kenny Hulshof (R) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-36

2004 margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Duane Burghard raised $250K to Hulshof’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Linda Jacobsen raised $130K to his $1 million

Current opponents Democrats:

Steve Gaw ,

Duane Burghard ,

and

Judy Baker

Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%),

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; superribbie (link above) ranks this the 25th most vulnerable Republican seat; the Republican contender appears to have raised no money.  

District: MT-AL

Location Entire state

Representative Denny Rehberg (R)*possibly retiring to run for Senate*

First elected  2000

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 64-33

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Monica Lindeen raised $500K to Rehberg’s $1.1 million; in 2004, Tracy Velazquez raised $120K to Rehberg’s $600 K

Current opponents Jim Hunt

Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment If Rehberg runs for Senate, who knows?

Crossposted from BoydaBloc

On Friday, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda did something courageous.  She did something brave.  She did something historic.

And she did what was right.

On Friday, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda voted for an update of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillances Act, or FISA.  She voted, in every procedural motion, to send the House version of the bill- the version without retroactive immunity for the phone companies- to the floor for a vote.  It’s exactly the way she voted in August, too.

Through it all, her position stayed the same.  In newspapers up and down the district she laid out her case:

In her own Op-Ed that ran in the Ottawa Herald she said:

To my mind, “wiretap first, get permission later” makes perfect sense. It gives the executive branch the power it needs to fight terrorism, and at the same time, it preserves the checks and balances our Constitution guarantees. It ensures that the U.S. intelligence community has every tool it needs to fight terrorists. And, by providing judicial oversight, it ensures the privacy of Americans who travel overseas for business or pleasure. It is simply wrong to wiretap Americans without a warrant.

Very unfortunately, the president has drawn a line in the sand. He has sworn to veto any FISA bill that includes court oversight. Instead, he wants the executive branch to oversee itself; he wants all FISA programs to fall under the jurisdiction of the Attorney General and the Director of National Intelligence.

That is a flagrant violation of checks and balances, and what’s more, it won’t help America fight terrorism more effectively. The FISA court is extremely generous with its warrants. Through 2004, the court had granted 18,761 wiretap requests. It had rejected only five.

And in the Leavenworth Times she was quoted as saying:

“I am adamant about protecting the Constitution. They’re giving nothing in return for it. We’re not getting any more security and they’re shredding the Constitution,” said U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Second Dist.

[…]

“What shocks me is how members of Congress from Kansas would so readily give up 230 years of our Constitution without gaining any additional security,” Boyda said.

And, she said in the Lawrence Journal-World:

“The foundation of our democracy … is at stake in the House of Representatives,” she said. She said Bush’s attempts to stifle inquiries into wiretapping and the role of telecom companies was “a massive cover-up … because he doesn’t want you to know that the Constitution has been shredded and he doesn’t want you to know how long” wiretapping has been happening.

And here, in her speech before the Kansas Democratic Party State Convention, she explained herself brilliantly:

The Republican Party has tried to scare Americans into allowing this President to have carte blanc authority- and to hand immunity to companies, even when he won’t tell us why they need it.  TV commercials and radio ads have attempted to scare all of us- and our members of Congress- into doing & believing what they wanted.

Nancy’s right- that was a damn lie.  And, now, 197 Republicans voted against updating FISA, only because telecoms didn’t get overarching protections from being sued.  This version of FISA protects us all, lets our national security organizations engage in investigations that are necessary- and doesn’t shred the Constitution in the process.

197 Republicans voted against ensuring Americans are safe because a phone company might get sued for potentially breaking the law.  And the President promises to veto the bill- because Lord knows phone companies are more important than American lives.

Boyda did what was right- and saying she didn’t is a losing argument for the Republican Party.

Georgia's 11th Congressional District candidate will be announced, interviewed, and his campaign site will launch on Sunday's Kudzu Vine!

Also, don't forget Jim Spearman, Ex. Director of the Alabama Democratic Party will join us on the Kudzu Vine Sunday Night. Jim will discuss their US Senate race, defending Bud Cramer's seat, and 2 possible Congressional pick-ups in the state.

Listen live at 7:00 EST or download later here

Clearfield County Commissioner and 5th District Congressional Candidate Mark B. McCracken was invited by officials of BioEnergy LLC to take part in the official groundbreaking ceremony held on Thursday March 13th for the Bionol Clearfield Biorefinery.

Pennsylvania Governor Edward G. Rendell was on hand to proclaim Clearfield County as the “Alternative Energy Capitol” of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.  During his comments, Governor Rendell gave praise to State Representative Camille George (D-74) for his leadership and determination to bring the project to Clearfield County.  Governor Rendell also recognized Clearfield County Commissioners McCracken, McMillen and Sobel along with former commissioner Rex Read for their “vision and leadership to help bring this multi-million dollar facility to their county”.  Governor Rendell concluded his remarks stating “We’re not only going to make this facility one of the energy capitals of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, but I hope of America as well.”

Representative George then took to the podium and said the ethanol plant groundbreaking represented a day of promise and belief.  He stated “I’m not just impressed with the dollars spent, the jobs it will provide and the gallons of fuel to be produced,” he said.  “So many years ago, no one would have believed in this project.  I would like to introduce the naysayers to Clearfield County – the can-do county.  We’re worth believing in and will do you proud.”

Stephen J. Gatto, chairman and chief executive officer of BioEnergy International LLC, spoke of the cooperation and collaboration that went into the project stating “We’ve collaborated on the ushering in of a new industrial revolution.”  Mr. Gatto, at one point in his comments stated “I thank the Clearfield County Commissioners for their cooperation and determination to make this project happen in their county”.

Following the ceremony, Commissioner McCracken commented to the press, “This project will give Clearfield County and the entire region a chance to claim a new industrial identity.  During most of the 20th century we were known for coal and brickyards but now we begin a bright future as the home of domestically produced alternative fuels”.

Facility Background Information – Provide by Corinne Young, Director of Government Affairs for BioEnergy.

The ethanol plant, which has received approximately $22 million in state funding and private funding of $248 million, is currently in the first phase of construction.  “Phase 1 includes the site work leveling and re-grading,” Young said.  She said construction workers are on location six days a week from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m.

According to Young, the facility’s construction will get underway in April and consists of two plants.  The first facility will be a corn-based ethanol plant, while the second will serve as a pilot, cellulose based plant.  “It’s going to be a $275 million dollar investment for the corn-based plant alone.  The pilot, cellulose plant will require additional funding,” Young said.

“It will have the capabilities to produce more than 100 million gallons each year,” she said of the corn-based ethanol plant.

Young said both plants are expected to be completed and in operation in 2010.  She said the plants will combine to hire about 70 full-time employees, while talks of a third, potential plant would result in 30 to 40 additional jobs.

Ms. Young concluded “We’re proud to be in partnership with the community.  We’re hoping to make Clearfield County the destination for renewable energy.”

Mario Diaz-Balart, attacking SCHIP:

In a flame-fanning tirade on Spanish-language radio last week, Díaz-Balart called the tax hike [to pay for SCHIP] an “attack on the Cuban-American community.” He added: “It would hurt an industry specifically in Miami-Dade, in South Florida, an industry that is almost entirely Hispanic: those who make cigars by hand, which is a cultural tradition. That industry will not survive.”

Lincoln Diaz-Balart, disrupting Tom Lantos’s memorial service:

The House had a meltdown today in the middle of the memorial service for the late Rep. Tom Lantos, a Holocaust survivor who was chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The service, in the Capitol’s historic Statuary Hall, was disrupted when a Republican House member unexpectedly called for a procedural vote.

And that’s when all hell broke loose.

House Democrats were furious, charging the procedural motion was disrespectful. “Very bad taste, very” as one senior House Democratic aide put it.

Republicans were apparently worried that Democrats were about to force debate on contempt-of-Congress citations against White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten and former White House counsel Harriet Miers. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) is the member who hit the panic button, so to speak, and called the procedural vote. His real purpose in calling the procedural motion was to protest the lack of a vote on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act – before the contempt debate started.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, grandstanding about that stupid Petraeus ad:

The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., said the ad “is outrageous and it is deplorable” and called upon her “colleagues on both sides of the aisle” to condemn the ad and, somewhat inexplicably, to apologize to the general for the impugning of his integrity.

Democrats everywhere know that we don’t need people like this in Congress. It goes without saying that the DCCC leadership should realize this, too.

It looks like crumb-bum Don Young has another primary challenger to fend off: the state’s Lt. Governor, Sean Parnell:

Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell stunned everyone at the Republican state convention Friday, announcing he will challenge 18-term incumbent Don Young for Alaska’s lone seat in the U.S. House.

“For too long, we have expected too little from our elected officials,” Parnell said. “It is time for change.”

Young’s response?  Oh, he’s pissed:

“Sean, congratulations,” Young said. “I beat your dad and I’m going to beat you.”

Pat Parnell ran as a Democrat against Young in the 1980 general election. Young received 114,089 votes to the elder Parnell’s 39,922, according to the Division of Elections.

Gesturing with his finger toward Parnell, Young said that if Parnell had wanted the U.S. House seat, he should have run two years ago.

“If you wanted to run for this job, you should have done it two years ago instead of running for lieutenant governor,” Young said. “You wanted that job. Stay where you are, and that’s where you’re going to be.”

Parnell joins state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux in the primary fight against Young.  An October poll obtained by the Swing State Project had Young with a 61%-33% lead over LeDoux.  We’ll see how the anti-Young vote splits.

(H/T: The Politico)

I stumbled on this topic when I was thinking of posting in the AL-05 diary that this was one of the districts that had swung the hardest to the right from 2000 to 2004, as measured by Gore % vs. Kerry %. That left me wondering if that was really the case, though, and I did some quick database manipulation. In fact, while Kerry did suffer an embarrassing drop in this district (4.3% lower than Gore, from 43.8% in 2000 to 39.5% in 2004), it was only the 35th worst drop for the Dems. Many of the ones that were worse really surprised me, and since this is a good place for discussing minutiae like this, I thought a diary on the topic might be a good conversation-starter. (PVI, as most of us here know, is the best shorthand for a district’s lean, but it averages out the results from 2000 and 2004 and one weakness it has it that it doesn’t indicate the direction the votes moved between 2000 and 2004.)

Biggest drops:

Rank	District	% change	PVI
1	NY-09	11.2%	D+14
2	TN-06	9.5%	R+4
3	AL-04	9.4%	R+16
4	NY-13	7.9%	D+1
5	CA-47	7.7%	D+5
6	TN-04	7.5%	R+3
7	FL-19	6.5%	D+21
8	TN-07	6.5%	R+12
9	NJ-04	6.5%	R+1
10	TN-01	6.1%	R+14
11	OK-02	5.9%	R+5
12	TX-15	5.7%	R+1
13	CA-43	5.6%	D+13
14	OK-03	5.5%	R+18
15	AL-03	5.5%	R+4
16	OK-04	5.2%	R+13
17	TX-27	5.2%	R+1
18	NY-03	5.1%	D+2
19	FL-20	5.1%	D+18
20	NJ-02	5.1%	D+4

I see four different trends at work here… none of which indicate a potentially damaging long-term trends in any of these areas.

1) 9-11 districts, for want of a better word. These are white ethnic districts in the New York metro area (and where retirees from these districts are found, i.e. the Jersey Shore and Broward County, Florida) where the impacts of 9-11 were felt the most, both actually and in terms of perception, and there was a rally-around-the-President effect (whether it was out of fear or jingoism is unclear, but it’s not likely to be as much of a factor next time).

2) Tennessee, where Gore benefited (somewhat) from favorite son status and Kerry necessarily fell off.

3) Predominantly white districts in Oklahoma and Alabama, two states that the Kerry campaign essentially wrote off and where highbrow Yankees are particularly unlikely to play well. Not so much of a problem if we have a presidential candidate running a 50-state strategy this time.

4) Certain heavily Latino districts in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and southern California suburbs, where apparently Bush’s Latino outreach efforts paid off some dividends. These districts already lean a bit more conservative than the more urban heavily Latino districts, and at any rate, with the 2006 election as an indicator, the GOP’s new tactics on immigration are likely to wipe out these gains and then some.

Biggest gains:

Rank	District	% change	PVI
1	VT-AL	8.3%	D+8
2	CA-06	8.2%	D+21
3	MN-05	8.2%	D+21
4	CA-01	8.0%	D+10
5	AK-AL	7.9%	R+14
6	CA-08	7.5%	D+36
7	CO-01	7.5%	D+18
8	WA-07	7.4%	D+30
9	GA-13	7.4%	D+12
10	CA-09	7.4%	D+38

I decided to stick with only 10 on this table because these aren’t as surprising: strongly Dem, mostly urban districts where there was a strong Nader effect in 2000 and most left-leaning voters returning to Kerry in 2004. The only exceptions are Alaska (again, explained by the lack of Nader) and GA-13, a suburban district where the African-American percentage of the population has shot up tremendously.