Swing State Project

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Everyone so far it seems has gotten a little carried away with Gerrymandering Maryland. I’ve even seen some outrageous 8-0 maps. With both the Governorship and both houses of the legislature held by Democrats, another Democratic gerrymander is inevitable, particularly with the state having gotten even more Democratic over the last decade.

However, I was interested in pursuing a gerrymander that didn’t look so outrageous, as the current one does, unfortunately. The fact that the current map looks like it does is even more outrageous because it is utterly unnecessary that it look so discontinuous and spindly, (Sarbanes’, Ruppersberger’s and district all look line vines that have grown wild over the state of Maryland). I made a point to reduce the clutter, and to reduce county-splitting while making a completely reliable 7-1 map.  

First notice how I didn’t go wild with MD-01, (blue), like some have been doing. It doesn’t traverse the entire state and mishmash rural middle class white voters from Kent County with rich suburban black voters in Prince George’s County, (the most ridiculous thing I’d seen in a while), no, with only superficial tweaking, (does the district look that radically different to you?), I cut 7 percentage points out of McCain’s vote total, taking from 58-40 to 51-47; which also, incidentally, wipes out the totality of the margin that Harris was able to get there in this the best Republican year in a generation; what’s more I cut out the areas that Harris performed strongest, (suburban Baltimore and northern Hartford), and left a greater emphasis on counties where Kratovil over-performed the most, in addition the portion of Anne Arundel is much larger, and more Democratic. So basically, I created a swing district that would firmly favor Kratovil, particularly seeing as how his base in the upper central part of the East Shore is now also the most Republican part of the district. (Surprisingly the southern reaches of far-right Hartford County are diverse and Democratic leaning). Without radically gerrymandering, or tossing in communities of disparate interests, I managed to create a favorable district that favors a Kratovil rematch, (and draws Harris completely out of it in fact). I don’t think you can gerrymander better than that.

MD-01: 134,186 McCain, (51%), 124,315 Obama, (47%). 79% White, 16% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Hispanic, (compared to previous 58-40 McCain, 85.5% white).

Maryland’s Second Congressional District is really a masterpiece; I’m quite proud at how I managed to pack in almost every hardcore Republican area in the state into one district. It runs along the panhandle, across the state into northern Baltimore and Hartford counties. I figure that Andy Harris will probably run in this district rather than face Kratovil in the First. It will either be open, (Bartlett will be 86 on Election Day, 2012), or he can primary Bartlett for being far to moderate for such a hard-right district. In any case I shifted the old district five points to the right, pretty much through that shift alone accounting for my seven point shift in MD-01.

MD-02: 190,590 McCain, (63%), 106,803 Obama, (35%), 93% White, 4% Black.

Perhaps the most disgustingly gerrymandered district in the country is John Sarbane’s. It looks like a clusterfuck of sorts, a spasmodic tendril growing wild over central Maryland and taking in parts of some 6 counties, (counting Baltimore City). It’s simply crazy, and, what’s more, utterly unnecessary. As you can see, the new 3rd, (which does not contain John Sarbane’s home, though claiming a different residence is a trivial move to make, if Maryland even has a residential clause), occupies a solid space in north-central Maryland, taking in a southeastern portion of Montgomery County, northern reaches of Anne Arundel, and all of Howard County, (including the more Republican northern reaches). Howard County has reliable Democratic lean, that ranges from, (as in the 2010 Gubernatorial race), from considerable, to overwhelming, (2008 Presidential Election), and of course the county is trending Democratic at a fairly steady rate. The Anne Arundel portions have a moderate Republican lean of 9-20 points depending on the election, and these are balanced of course by the heavily Democratic portions of Montgomery county which are reliably Democratic. All in all, the current district voted for Obama by more than 20 points, and gave O’Malley at least a 7 point margin over Ehrlich by a conservative calculation. Sarbanes should have little trouble holding onto it, and what’s more it should give him a solid base should he run for Senate in 2016, (though I suspect he would have some intense competition, perhaps from Van Hollen or Donna Edwards).

MD-03: 164,854 Obama, (59%), 109,923, McCain, (39%), 69% White, 16% Black, 7% Asian, 6% Hispanic, (compared to 77.3% White previously).

Nothing much to see here. I took in southern Frederick County; which has been ‘infected,’ (using paranoid Conservative hate-talk), with liberals spilling out of Montgomery County. It’s no longer a Republican stronghold, (McCain won it 50-48), and the fact that Ehrlich only managed to win it 54-42 over O’Malley is telling. The southern portion, including the city of Frederick, is significantly more diverse and Democratic leaning, the portion now in Van Hollen’s district gave Obama a 54-45 margin and should only get more Democratic. Of course the district is still concentrated in Montgomery County, (though it loses the Prince George’s portions, though seriously, even an attempted Connie Morella comeback couldn’t hope to get more than 40% of the vote in this district). Rockville and other areas of Montgomery are overwhelmingly and reliably Democratic. This is still a 2:1 Obama district that gave O’Malley a twenty to thirty point margin as well. The other upside for Van Hollen is that this district gives him a slightly better springboard for statewide office, including as it does a shift into swingier areas.

MD-04: 173,988 Obama, (66%), 83,776 McCain, (32%), 69% White, 9% Black, 10% Asian, 9% Hispanic, (previously 62% White).

Baltimore Close-Up:

While Dutch Ruppersberger’s district isn’t exactly beautiful now, it is at least considerably better and more compact than it is currently. It contains some heavily African American precincts in southwestern Baltimore County, plus carves out the white areas of Baltimore City, which also have a heavy Democratic lean. My main goal was to make a district that not even a Republican politician with a base in white Baltimore County voters, like Bob Ehrlich, could win in an open seat situation in a Republican leaning year. In other words, I wanted primarily to ensure that this district, like MD-03 and MD-04 would not be going Republican barring extraordinary circumstances. I succeeded, to put it simply. In every set of my goals; from making it more Democratic to making it look less ridiculous, (though I also think that Ruppersberger actually lives a few miles outside of this district in a Republican leaning precinct in central Baltimore County, however like I said with Sarbanes such problems are quite trivial in the bigger picture).

MD-05: 177,253 Obama, (66%), 87,651 McCain, (32%), 68% White, 25% Black.

Again, not much going on with Elijah Cummings’ district. It becomes slightly more Republican, (taking in some mostly white, wealthy, overwhelmingly Republican precincts in southeastern Baltimore county that were previously mostly in MD-01), and it’s actually slightly more Black, (about 2% more so than previously). Simply put the changes are rather superficial. This is still about as heavily Democratic a district as you can find, and completely following the VRA and representing the black community in central Maryland around the Baltimore area. I can see no objections that could be found with it.

MD-06: 179,598 Obama, (78%), 47,910 McCain, (21%), 61% Black, 35% White.

Prince George’s County Close Up:

That third map should clarify the boundaries around that area, which because of the colors are rather fuzzy on the wider view. Steny Hoyer’s district changes a bit, but the top lines and demographics aren’t all that different. It doesn’t take in a considerable portion of southern Prince George’s County anymore, but it still contains most of the basis of the old district; all of Charles, (steadily diversifying and growing more Democratic from over-spill out of Prince George’s), St. Mary’s, Calvert, and western Anne Arundel, (the latter three all of having a significant conservative lean). It reaches up and takes in a sizable portion of heavily Democratic, diverse Prince George’s county, the northern portions really, as well as the very bottom sections of Montgomery, (which are diverse and heavily Democratic as well). The result is a district that is still quite reliably Democratic, and which Hoyer shouldn’t have any trouble holding nor any Democrat after him.

MD-07: 159,947 Obama, (61%), 98,368 McCain, (38%). 65% White, 22% Black, 4% Asian, 6% Hispanic, (previously 60% White, 30% Black).

With MD-08 there really is nothing to see or talk about, (except the numbering being different and the fact it no longer does a ridiculous and pointless loop up into Montgomery County, with the two sections connected by a tiny thread, why Maryland Democrats felt the need to make such a gerrymandered looking district out of such overwhelmingly Democratic territory I’ll never understand). The district has a larger percentage of Black voters than before, and is as Democratic as ever. I fail to see any objections local pols might have to such a commonsense adjustment.

MD-08: 232,589 Obama, (92%), 18,494 McCain, (7%). 69% Black, 18% White, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian, (previously 56.8% Black, 27.6% White, 7.5% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian).

So, in nutshell that is the gerrymander I would strongly support being enacted. For one, it doesn’t look like the brutally effective gerrymander that is, and maintains effectively communities of interest, (meaning there isn’t the fallout or controversy provoked by the last map), and it maintains 6 safe Democratic seats while putting forth one heavily Republican district and one flat out swing district. The 6 Democratic Districts can divided out as such, Overwhelmingly Democratic, (6th, Cummings, 8th, Edwards), strongly Democratic, (Van Hollen, 4th, Ruppersberger, 5th), and moderately Democratic, (3rd, Sarbanes, 7th Hoyer). I’m confident that not only is this map safe and effective, but for a Gerrymander it is also relatively fair and noncontroversial in look. (I considered adding my thoughts on Maryland, providing a rudimentary political analysis of the different regions, but as a college student I have other work to move on to and must quit playing around, and this piece here is long enough, so I will continue other thoughts later, at different time in a different place). Thanks for reading and I’m always interested in your feedback.  

The 140 seats of Virginia’s general assembly are all up in 2011. This will be one of the first post-redistricting elections in the country; redistricting will take place next spring in Virginia, and must be submitted to the Department of Justice for VRA pre-clearance. This will likely result in a compressed campaign season, as the composition of the maps will not be known until March or April, and they won’t be approved until June or July. This is especially frustrating, as many legislative seats hang in the balance due to the explosive population growth in the Northern Virginia exurbs.

The Virginia Public Access Project has posted maps that estimate the current population variance of the existing legislative (and Congressional) maps. A quick look at the maps makes the population trends in Virginia readily apparent: the state is experiencing huge amounts of growth in the outer NoVa suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William Counties, as well as the more exurban parts south of Prince William (Culpeper, Fauquier, Spotsylvania, and Stafford Counties). The Richmond suburbs (Chesterfield and Henrico Counties and some of the more rural counties to the north) and outer Hampton Roads areas (Isle of Wight and York Counties and the city of Suffolk) are also experiencing growth, although not as significant.

This growth comes at a cost: the rural areas of Southwestern and Southside Virginia are taking a beating, as well as Richmond proper and the older, more urbanized cities of Hampton Roads (Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Portsmouth). Even Northern Virginia is not immune to these trends: growth has stagnated in the inside-the-beltway areas of Alexandria, Arlington, and inner Faifax.

What does all this mean? The obvious answer is that reapportionment is going to draw seats away from these areas and towards the outer ring of D.C. suburbs and exurbs. In the short-term, this is likely going to hurt Democrats; although they had some success in these areas during the Bush administration, capped by Obama’s double-digit wins in Loudoun and Prince William, the areas have swung back to the Republicans in the past couple years. The Democratic Party can’t take these places for granted — they’re filled with fiscally conservative, socially moderate voters who have no problem voting for a Republican over a Democrat when it comes to pocketbook issues.

Having said all that, I’m now turning my attention to the State Senate, where Democrats hold a 22-18 edge. The Democrats will find defending all 22 seats a challenge; currently the map is maxed out for them, there are no realistic targets for picking up Republican seats. That may change in redistricting, but of course, I can’t guess what the map will look like. For now, I’ll run down the Democrats in the Senate that may be vulnerable in 2011, ranked from most vulnerable to least vulnerable. The district numbers are linked to VPAP’s breakdown of each district by locality and statewide performance.

1. SD-01 (John Miller, elected in 2007) – In 2007, Miller beat a fairly nutty Republican who knocked off the popular, moderate incumbent in a primary. Sound familiar? As it stands, Miller’s district is a pretty conservative one; although Kaine and Obama did come close to winning it, it includes the extremely Republican city of Poquoson and carves out the most Republican parts of Newport News. If I had to hazard a guess, the next map will likely trade out the York/Poquoson areas in exchange for the Newport News/Williamsburg portion of SD-03. Either way, Miller will be in for a tough fight next year.

2. SD-29 (Chuck Colgan, elected in 1975) – Colgan, the President Pro Tem of the Senate, may retire next year. At 84 years old, it would be hard to blame him. The district is one that on paper favors Republicans, being a swath of central Prince William County. However, Colgan’s long tenure in office has helped him hold on, although his margins in recent elections have not been impressive: he won 55% in 2003 and 54% in 2007. Democrats might try to draw a better district, given that the 29th has to shed quite a few voters, but it will be tough to hold this one even if Colgan doesn’t retire. Colgan hasn’t raised a whole lot of money so far — about $150k, with only $43k in the bank.

3. SD-17 (Edd Houck, elected in 1983) – Houck is one of the few “old guard” Democrats left. A 27-year veteran of the Senate, he chairs the Education and Health Committee, and represents a conservative district that spans from the sleepy, rural counties of Madison and Orange to the growing exurbs of Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania County. Houck has been facing decreasing margins of victory over the years; in 1999 he won 60%; in 2003, 59%; and in 2007, 56%, despite outspending his opponent nearly 3-1. With $300,000 in the bank, Houck seems likely to run for another term, but it will be a struggle. The district needs to shed voters, but I don’t really see how it can be made much better for Houck; Fredericksburg is the only real Democratic bastion in the district. Regardless, Houck will be in for a fight next year.

4. SD-38 (Phil Puckett, elected in 1998) – Puckett is probably the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, and it’s not surprising to see why: he represents a chunk of Southwestern Virginia that has voted for exactly two statewide Democrats in the past six years, Creigh Deeds in 2005 and Mark Warner in 2008. Again, not to sound like a broken record, but this is a part of the state that is becoming extremely unfriendly to Democrats. Pucket hasn’t had an opponent in the past two contests, which probably won’t be the case this time. Of course, he could turn out to still be a safe bet, but given what has happened over the last two years in this part of the state, I wouldn’t put money on it.

5. SD-20 (Roscoe Reynolds, elected in 1996) – Reynolds is a conservative Democrat representing a swath of Southside Virginia that stretches from Martinsville to Wythe County. He has won handily in each of his three election contests, but this is an area that has been sharply trending away from the Democrats in the past few years. Not helping things is the fact that this district, like all of those in this part of the state, is going to have to expand in order to meet population requirements. I’m not sure what the districts in the area are going to look like next year, but if Republicans don’t mount a strong challenge to Reynolds, they’re missing a big opportunity.

6. SD-06 (Ralph Northam, elected in 2007) – Northam easily defeated Republican Nick Rerras in 2007. He’s a moderate Democrat with a great bio: he grew up on the Eastern Shore, went to VMI, and is a pediatric neurologist at CHKD. The district is split between the white parts of northern Norfolk and the Eastern Shore, and Northam has ties to both parts of the district. I don’t expect this one to change that much, though it may have to expand east into SD-07 (which may benefit Northam, as there are some precincts in western Virginia Beach that are generally favorable to Dems). Northam is definitely favored for re-election, but as a freshman in a swing district, he should be watched carefully.

7. SD-33 (Mark Herring, elected in 2006) – Herring picked this seat up in a special election in 2006, and though his margin slipped the next year, he still won by a double-digit margin. The concern, of course, is that Loudoun County has swung back to the Republicans in the past couple years, kicking out both of its Democratic Delegates in 2009. There are two good bits of news for Herring, though: first, the district is going to have to shed about half its voters, which means Democrats should be able to draw a much safer district. The other good news for Herring is the cast of characters running against him: Dick Black, a long-time embarrassment who lost his House seat in 2005, Patricia Phillips, who lost to Herring in 2007, and some guy who came in third for a Board of Supervisors seat in 2007.

8. SD-39 (George Barker, elected in 2007) – Barker’s district is located mostly in southern Fairfax with some of Prince William County. I don’t think he should be in too much trouble, but I’m including him here because he’s a freshman in a fairly swingy district, though the Democrats might be able to shore him up a bit.