Swing State Project

• NV-Sen: By far the most interesting news of what’s been a very slow news day is that John Ensign appears to be running again, at least according to one of his spokespersons. While he’s been acting like he’d run again (and he was probably encouraged by that recent PPP poll showing him leading Dean Heller in a GOP primary), it’s still a little surprising, given the disrepair his fundraising operation has fallen into, and the pile of ethics and potentially criminal investigations he’ll have to navigate next year. (H/t sebby123.)

• FL-Sen: Can’t a man publish an op-ed in a major in-state newspaper without people thinking he’s running for a higher office? Well, apparently not, based on reaction to a column written by Rep. Connie Mack IV in the Orlando Sentinel that took Bill Nelson to task over extension of Bush-era tax cuts. Beltway code-talkers are interpreting this as the first salvo of a likely Senate race.

• WV-Sen, WV-Gov, WV-02: GOP Rep. Shelly Moore Capito is sounding studiously noncommital about her plans for 2012. A challenge to newly-elected (in a special election) Sen. Joe Manchin? “I’m not ruling it out…” but also “I have given no thought to it…” (other than, by definition, the amount of thought needed in order to decide not to rule it out). She also didn’t rule out running for Governor in 2012, although she did pretty explicitly rule out running for Governor if the legislature decides they should have a fast odd-numbered-year special election to replace Manchin in 2011. A Manchin/Capito match would be between two super-popular politicians: a Blankenship (the pollster, not the coal company) survey just found Manchin with 80% approvals and Capito at 77%.

• AL-02: Bobby Bright popped up today to criticize the Dems’ decision to retain Nancy Pelosi as leader, but he also offered some vague “never say never” sentiments about a return engagement for his seat, saying he wouldn’t rule it out in 2012.

• IN-06: With Mike Pence looking likelier that he’s up and out of the House after this term — although whether he’s running for Governor or President is unclear — Roll Call names some potential replacements. One is a blast from the past: ex-Rep. David McIntosh, who represented an earlier iteration of this district (then IN-02) from 1994 to 2000, when he lost the Governor’s race. Other names include Wayne Co. Sheriff Matt Strittmatter, former state Rep. Luke Messer (whom you might remember from narrowly losing the IN-05 primary to Dan Burton this year), and rich guy Don Bates (who finished 4th in the IN-Sen primary this year, and has also been rumored for a Richard Lugar primary challenge).

• LA-SoS: Here’s an interesting career pivot: soon-to-be-ex. Rep. Joe Cao is considering a run for Louisiana Secretary of State. He’d face a primary against Tom Schedler, a Republican who will be acting SoS for the next year (current SoS Jay Dardenne is about to be sworn in as Lt. Governor) and will be running for a permanent slot next year. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

It’s all over but the tedious courtroom challenges, at least according to the AP, which called the Alaska Senate race within the last hour:

Ms. Murkowski emerged victorious after a painstaking, two-week count of write-in ballots showed she has overtaken tea party rival Joe Miller.

Her victory became clear when Alaska election officials confirmed they had only about 700 votes left to count, putting Ms. Murkowski in safe territory to win re-election.

Ms. Murkowski has a lead of about 10,000 votes, a total that includes 8,153 ballots in which Mr. Miller observers challenged over things like misspellings, extra words or legibility issues.

Joe Miller has maintained that he’ll stop fighting the race if the math doesn’t work in his favor, although it’s been clear for a week now that the math doesn’t work in his favor. He has also maintained that he’s going to keep pursuing legal action, although it’s unclear how long that’ll last once his financial backers do a cost/benefit analysis.

The counting is finally over:

By a miniscule margin of 292 votes, GOP challenger Joe Walsh emerged Tuesday as the apparent winner over U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean in their nail-biting 8th District congressional race.

Walsh, a Tea Party-backed conservative, led the three-term Democrat by 347 votes at the beginning of the day, but absentee and provisional ballots tallied Tuesday by election officials narrowed that margin even further.

There’s no word on whether Bean will seek a recount, but she has a press conference scheduled for tomorrow. Walsh, whose campaign was most noted before election day for its dramatic implosion, looks primed to be a one-term wonder before he meets the buzz-saw of the Democratic-controlled redistricting machine in Illinois.

UPDATE: Via the comments, Bean has conceded.

• AK-Sen: Nothing has really changed with the overall trajectory of the Alaska Senate race, but this is the first day that Lisa Murkowski has been able to claim a “lead” over Joe Miller (even though her victory has become increasingly clear each day). At the end of yesterday’s counting, she had 92,164 votes to Miller’s 90,448. 7,601 were subject to challenge but counted for her anyway (and, if Miller’s lawsuit succeeds, could get reversed), but based on Murkowski’s success at avoiding write-in challenges, is on track to win with or without those challenged ballots.

• FL-Sen: George LeMieux, whose year-and-a-half in the Senate is about to expire, is leaving with more of a whimper than a bang, if PPP is to be believed: his approvals are 11/28 (with 61% with no opinion), including 14/24 among Republicans. He’s not looking like he’d have much impact in a challenge to Bill Nelson in 2012, which he’s threatened (which isn’t to say that Nelson is out of the woods, as a stronger Republican will no doubt come along). Among all the appointed Senators, he’s still faring better than Roland Burris (18/57) but worse than Carte Goodwin (17/22) and Ted Kaufman (38/33). (Oh, and if you’re still feeling like we lost out by not having Charlie Crist win the Senate race, guess again: Bob Dole! is reporting that Crist promised him he’d caucus with the GOP if he won the 3-way race. This comes after leaks in the waning days of the race that he’d caucus with the Democrats. Somehow, I expect any day now that Ralph Nader will reveal that Crist promised him that he’d caucus with the Green Party if he won the race.)

• IN-Sen: Richard Lugar made it official; he’s running for re-election one more time. Lugar, who’ll be 80 in 2012, probably has more to worry about in the Republican primary than he does in the general election, where aspiring Democrats would probably be more interested in the open gubernatorial seat.

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown will probably have a tougher re-election than his initial election, but it’s unclear which Republican he’ll face. The two who’ve gotten the most press are Mary Taylor, the current Auditor and newly-elected Lt. Governor, or Rep. Jim Jordan (a religious right fave from the state’s rural west), but another possibility that the article broaches is long-time Rep. Steve LaTourette, one of the House’s more moderate GOPers left. Either way, if Jordan or LaTourette were to try for the promotion, that would help the state GOP decide which of their seats to vaporize in the redistricting process (although LaTourette’s, in the northeast corner and surrounded by Dem seats, would be much harder to work with). Ohio’s losing two seats, though, and one more Dem seat is on the chopping block, especially since the biggest population losses have come in the northeast — the likeliest outcome seems to be consolidation of districts that sets up either a Dennis Kucinich/Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich/Betty Sutton mash-up.

• PA-Sen: The GOP feels like they have a shot against Bob Casey (who won by a near-overwhelming margin in 2006), given the state’s turn toward the red this year. The big question, though, is who? If Tom Ridge didn’t do it this year when it would have been a gimmee, he certainly isn’t any likelier to do it in 2012. Hotline mentions a couple current suburban Reps., Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent, both of whom have tenaciously held down Dem-leaning districts that would be prime open seat battles if they left. Failing that, the bench looks pretty empty; they cite state Sen. Jake Corman as interested, as well as talk radio host and behind-the-scenes player Glen Meakem, who cited interest in running for 2010 but decided against it.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s SoS (a Dem, Mark Ritchie) has laid out the timeline for the recount process. The race will be canvassed starting Nov. 23, and presuming a recount is necessary (which it will be unless something weird happens with the canvass, as Dem Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by less than one-half of a percent, triggering the automatic recount provision), the recounting will begin on Nov. 29.

• MD-01: Nothing like teabagger hypocrisy at work: freshly elected with a mandate to destroy the federal government, Andy Harris’s first act in Washington was to demand all the free goodies from the federal government that he’s entitled to, so long as other people are paying for them. At freshman orientation, Harris was observed expressing dismay that his gold-plated health care plan takes a month to kick in.

• NY-01, NY-25: Here are a couple more updates from overtime. In the 1st, Randy Altschuler’s lead over Tim Bishop is currently 383, but there are more than 11,000 absentees to be counted starting today, and since they’re all from one county (Suffolk), your guess is as good as mine how they break. In NY-25, Ann Marie Buerkle gained a tiny bit of ground as two GOP-leaning counties reported their absentees; she’s now up 729. Dan Maffei’s base, Dem-leaning Onondaga County, is about to start counting its 6,000 absentees. He should make up some ground, but he’ll need to average 56% among the remaining absentee ballots, while he’s only got 54% in Onondaga so far, though.

• DSCC: Dianne Feinstein told the press that Michael Bennet is, despite his previous demurrals, going to be the next DSCC chair. Does Michael Bennet know this? He’s still saying no. The rest of the Dem leadership in the Senate (and the GOP, too) was elected without a hitch today, but the DSCC job still stands vacant.

• CA-AG: Things keep looking up for Kamala Harris in California, after a torrent of new votes yesterday from Alameda County (where the Dem stronghold of Oakland is). That batch broke 18,764 for Harris, and only 5,099 for Steve Cooley, which may be a decisive moment in the count.

• Chicago mayor: Rahm Emanuel is certainly looking like the early favorite in the Chicago mayoral race, courtesy of an Anzalone-Liszt poll commissioned by the Teamsters local (who haven’t endorsed yet). Emanuel is at 36, with Danny Davis at 14, Carol Mosely Braun at 13, Gery Chico at 10, James Meeks at 7, and Miguel del Valle at 4. Now you may be noticing what I’m noticing, that there’s significant splitting of the African-American vote here, and if you added Davis, Braun, and Meeks up into one super-candidate, they’d be in a dead heat with Emanuel. Well, don’t forget that this election uses a runoff, so chances are good we’ll see a head-to-head between Emanuel and one of the African-American challengers, and the poll finds Emanuel winning both those contests convincingly too: 54-33 versus Davis and 55-32 against Braun.

The Hill has a piece today about possible comeback attempts from defeated Democratic incumbents. Given the sheer volume of defeats, we’re bound to see some of these people return to office in some form or another, while others will quietly fade into obscurity. So let’s canvass your opinion: Are there any candidates — incumbents and challengers alike — who lost in 2010 (or 2008, for that matter) that you’d like to see try again for another office in the not-too-distant future? It could be the same seat they lost, or it could be something else. Let’s hear your ideas!

Earlier this year I posted a diary creating a 10 district Washington State. With the update to Dave’s Redistricting, I thought I would update my proposed redistricting map of Washington.

Washington has a bipartisan commission for redistricting, so at best the map is going to strive for balance or the creation of swing districts.

In this map, I make a return to the delegation maps of the 1960s, where the 2nd Congressional district connected Whatcom County along the Canadian border with Clallam County along the Pacific Ocean. (Actually, that district contained all or portions of Clallam, Island, Jefferson, King, San Juan, Skagit, and Snohomish Counties). Also in this map, the new 10th CD is an Tacoma (Pierce County) based district while the 3rd CD connects Bremerton with the Pacific Coast. Should this map be adopted, I would think that the delegation would be 7-3, and possibly 9-1 in a strong Democratic year if and as the cities Spokane and Yakama trend towards Democratic candidates.

CD 1 – Inslee (D – Bambridge Island) or open

White – 82%
Asian – 3%
Hispanic – 5%

As I wrote in the introduction, the 1st CD connects Whatcom County in the north with Jefferson County along the Olympic Peninsula. The district is connected via the Keystone to Port Townsend ferry. The district also includes the northern half of Kitsap County (Kingston and Bambridge Island), extending to the southern edge of Bremerton.

The district will be a swing (at worse) district that leans Democratic. Of the counties in the new district, Jefferson, Kitsap, and Whatcom county voted for Patty Murray, while Clallam still gave her 46%. While Rick Larsen won a squeaker in 2010, most of the Republican leaning area of his district (East Snohomish County) is now in the 2nd CD.

CD 2 – Larsen (D – Lake Stevens)

White – 83%
Asian – 6%
Hispanic – 5%

The 2nd is now entirely in Snohomish County. The only City not in the CD is Stanwood.

The district should be a sold Democratic district. There are 4 Democrats on the Snohomish County Council and 1 Republican. A portion of the Republican district is not in the 2nd CD, while the districts of the remaining 4 Democrats are in. Still, there is a potential for an upset in a bad year, but Patty Murray did win 51% of the vote in Snohomish County.

CD 3 – Norm Dicks (D – Bremerton)

White – 85%
Asian – 3%
Hispanic – 5%

The 3rd CD connects Bremerton in Kitsap County to Longview and Kelso in Cowlitz County. The district includes Olympia and Centralia and Chehalis in Lewis County (the district splits Lewis and Cowlitz counties [mostly down 1-5]). The district also includes Gig Harbor in Pierce County.

With Olympia and Bremerton, and as well as the Democratic lean along the Pacific Ocean (Murray won in Pacific, Gray’s Harbor, and Thurston counties), the district should remain a Democratic one.

CD 4 – Jamie Herrara (R – Camas)

White – 79%
Hispanic – 13%

The 4th CD is a Columbia River district and extends north to the City of Yakama.

For the near term, this would be a Republican district. Over time, it is possible that the City of Yakama returns to its Democratic roots (the area did elect Jay Inslee in 1992) and with Vancouver, become a Democratic-performing district.

CD 5 – Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (R – Spokane)

White – 83%
Hispanic – 10%

It may not be possible to elect a Democrat east of the Cascades, but combining the Tri-Cities with Spokane may be the only way to do so. The district includes the cities of Spokane and Spokane Valley in Spokane County, but nothing to the west or north.

The district does have the advantage of placing Representative Hastings (Pasco) and McMorris-Rodgers into the same district (but I would not expect them to run against each other).

CD 6 – Open or Doc Hastings (R – Pasco)

White – 79%
Hispanic – 15%

This 6th CD takes in all of the rest of Eastern Washington not in the 4th or 5th and supplements that population with a small portion of Eastern Pierce County. This is a solid Republican precinct.

CD 7 – Jim McDermott (D – Seattle)

White – 68%
African American – 8%
Asian – 13%
Hispanic – 6%

This is the City of Seattle and Vashon Island. Not much to say here (except this would be one area where having city boundaries on v.2.0 would be especially nice).

CD 8 – open

White – 82%
Asian – 9%
Hispanic – 4%

This district is the district that any of the challengers to Dave Reichert would have wanted. In the north, all of the northern King County cities (and reliably Democratic) (Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, Kenmore, Kirkland, Redmond), combine with Bellevue to balance the Republican portion of east King County.

CD 9 – Dave Reichert (R – Auburn)

White – 71%
African American – 6%
Asian – 10%
Hispanic – 7%

The 9th CD retains most of its current form, extending north to Renton and east to Auburn, while it loses most of its portion of Pierce County. What remains is all (or most of the south end of King County – a distinct region in King County politics).

This swing district that never really swung, becomes a more solidly Democratic district.

CD 10 – Adam Smith (D – Tacoma)

White – 73%
African American – 8%
Asian – 7%
Hispanic – 6%

The district includes Tacoma and portions of South and East Pierce County.

Pierce County is a swing County, but the Republican portions of Pierce County are not in this CD. The 6th CD has lots of east Pierce, and the 9th has a chunk of north-central Pierce County. A Democrat should retain this seat.

At the end of the day this map is compact, yet would probably yield a 7-3 Democratic split in the delegation most years. If there was another Republican wave, potentially 2 more Democrats could be endangered – in a Democratic wave, 2 Republicans would be endangered.

• AK-Sen: As it gets more and more apparent that victory isn’t going to come on the write-in-challenges front, the Joe Miller camp seems to be admitting as much. However, they aren’t preparing to concede, as they see one last ace in the hole: absentee ballots, which are still trickling in. The last to arrive (ahead of Wednesday’s deadline) will be the military overseas ballots, which Miller expects will break heavily in his favor (seeing as how many military members nearing the end of their commitment are probably looking forward to a profitable career on Miller’s paramilitary goon squad). With Lisa Murkowski’s lead holding at 40-35, though, it’s unclear whether military ballots would show up in sufficient numbers to turn the tide even if they broke widely for Miller.

• DE-Sen, WV-Sen: Congratulations today to Chris Coons and Joe Manchin, both of whom are being sworn into the Senate this afternoon for the lame-duck session. It’s also the first day on the job for Earl Ray Tomblin, who becomes the new West Virginia Governor in Manchin’s absence. If you’re wondering about Mark Kirk, he’ll be sworn in next week thanks to vagaries of Illinois law. (If I may be allowed a brief moment of alma mater pride, Coons appears to be the first Amherst alum elected to the Senate since the ill-fated Thomas Eagleton.)

• MA-Sen: You may remember a boomlet that peaked last week for Senate speculation concerning Setti Warren, the “rock star” mayor of Newton. Well, that’s over, as he’s now saying his “intent” is to finish his term, which runs through 2013. However, a different young up-and-coming mayor of one of the Bay State’s larger cities is now poking the Senate race with a stick: Will Flanagan, the 30-year-old mayor of the much more blue-collar Fall River, is gauging the race.

• TX-Sen: The Fix has a look at possible primary challengers to Kay Bailey Hutchison, who, with her bungled gubernatorial run and her TARP vote, seems to have painted a big target on her back aimed at Texas tea partiers looking for a promotion. Former SoS Roger Williams and former Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones are already in the race (dating back to when it was expected that KBH would be on her way to the Governor’s Mansion at this point), but the bigger names to watch are Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams. Dewhurst is establishment but has the personal wealth to get a foothold here, while Williams has no money but is the favorite of the tea party set. Dallas mayor Tom Leppert is also mentioned as a wild-card. One Dem who won’t be making the race is former Houston mayor Bill White, who in wake of his gubernatorial loss says he won’t pivot to a Senate race. That probably frees up the Dem Senate slot for former comptroller John Sharp, who was going to run in the hypothetical special election that never happened and already has a big stack of cash saved up for the race.

• CT-Gov: If you’re hearing zombie lies from Republican friends about the Connecticut gubernatorial race being stolen by the urban machines, here’s a handy debunking point: exit polls show that the huge falloff in votes in Bridgeport neatly tracks the statewide falloff in Dem crossover votes for the Republican candidate in general from 2006 (when the broadly-popular Jodi Rell ran) to 2010.

• KY-Gov: One more Republican to keep in mind as a potential challenger in next year’s off-year gubernatorial election: Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw. That’s kind of a big step up to Governor, so it seems like she might be starting with a high negotiating position with the party to try to worm her way into the SoS slot instead (assuming Trey Grayson follows through on plans to run for AG instead).

• NC-02, TX-27: Here are updates on two of our outstanding races: recounts have been officially approved in both of ’em. Six counties in the 27th will be recounted, per Solomon Ortiz’s request, as he trails by about 800. In the 2nd, the canvass was officially certified with Bobby Etheridge trailing by 1,489, but he’ll be pursuing a recount as allowed under state law. While neither of these prospects looks that hopeful, we can take some solace in that the likely victors, Blake Farenthold and Renee Elmers, are some of the most amateur-hour entrants into the new House and hopefully likely to help define the new face of the Republican Party.

• NY-29: Best wishes for a quick recovery to soon-to-be-sworn-in Tom Reed, who literally just arrived in Washington and was immediately sickened by it. He was diagnosed with a blood clot in his lungs and says he’ll be released in one or two days, ready to get to work.

• WA-01, WA-03: I’d hoped that Brian Baird was going to take his unique variety of douchiness to the private sector for good, but it looks like his strange retirement decision may have been an inspired case of district-shopping instead. He’s moving to Edmonds in Seattle’s northern suburbs, which just happens to be in the 1st District. Assuming that Jay Inslee follows through on his widely-known plans to run for Governor, lo and behold, the 1st will be an open seat in 2012. The 1st (which is a pretty safe district in its current configuration, and will probably keep similar lines in redistricting) has to be more appealing than the 3rd, which redistricting will probably move from a true swing district to a light-red one, as liberal Olympia will probably have to be exchanged for a Columbia Gorge-centered district that’s based in Vancouver but that runs east into conservative Yakima County. (Which, unfortunately, would be tailor-made for Jaime Herrera, who’s Latina but living in the Vancouver burbs, and will make her much harder to dislodge.) For more detail on Washington’s likely 10-district map, see here.

• NY-St. Sen.: Here’s an update on the three races that are holding New York State Senate control in the balance. Dem incumbent Craig Johnson trails by only 427, and seems to be gaining at a rapid clip as absentee votes get counted, so the trajectory indicates he might pull ahead by the end. Things seem more locked in with two more Dem incumbents, though: Suzi Oppenheimer leads by 504, while Antoine Thompson trails by 597. Wins by Johnson and Oppenheimer would set up a 31-31 tie.

• Chicago mayor: The election’s been over for two weeks, and it’s already time for the first new edition of SSP TV: Rahm Emanuel kicked off his mayoral bid with his first TV spot already. Rep. Danny Davis also made it official this weekend, launching his bid and dubbing himself the “grassroots” candidate. (He looks like he’ll be giving up his House seat only in the event that he wins the mayoral race.)

• DSCC: After some hopeful signs that Michael Bennet might be willing to take on the role of DSCC head, he said “no thanks” late Friday. At this point, Beltway pundits seem to think that the shortest straw has Patty Murray’s name on it.

• RGA: Texas Gov. Rick Perry signed on for another cycle at the helm of the Republican Governor’s Association. I’ve seen speculation that he’s doing it mostly to shut down rumors that he’s really running for President, although it should be a pretty sleepy gubernatorial cycle and he might be able to juggle both tasks (since most big states elect governors during the midterms, and only a few open seats loom… Indiana, North Carolina, and Washington may be the highest-profile races).

• Redistricting: The Wall Street Journal has a good overview of what to expect with redistricting, and they seem to come to the same conclusion that I have: that the downside for the GOP of their strong performance in Dem-held red districts is that it means there are a lot fewer opportunities to turf anyone out through aggressive gerrymandering, and instead their efforts are going to have to more defensive, oriented toward shoring up the deadwood that washed ashore. Meaning, of course, that predictions of another large redistricting-driven gain in the House for the GOP aren’t likely to come to pass, although it will still make it harder for the Dems to regain significant ground.

A couple articles are also out today dealing with the biggest redistricting prize of all, California, although whether it’s a prize or not has much to do with what happens with the newly-created (by Prop 20) congressional redistricting commission; this week, out of the pool of 36,000 applicants, 36 finalists for the commission’s citizen slots will be picked. Of particular interest is what exactly happens with the seats in northern Los Angeles’s San Fernando Valley, where there’s a push underway to get a Hispanic district. (Worth noting: CA-28 already has a Hispanic majority, although Howard Berman seems pretty primary-proof there, and there don’t seem to be enough parts and pieces elsewhere in the Valley to create another neatly-shaped one.)

• Demographics: Here’s a big surprise, on the demographic front: there are reports that there are 100,000 fewer Hispanics in Arizona than there were when SB 1070 passed. That may not have a big impact on voting behavior (since those emigrants are probably unlikely voters), but a big impact on redistricting, where the possibility of a third VRA district in Arizona looms. Or maybe not… since the census only cares where you were on April 1, much of that fleeing may not have happened yet at that point.

• Dave’s App: Exciting news from over in the diaries: version 2.0 of Dave’s Redistricting App is available. You can check out all the details at the link, but two major improvements including use of street maps (making urban work much easier) and ability to save JPGs. Redistricting is going to be one of Swing State Project’s main preoccupations over the next year, and Dave’s App is one of the best tools we have in our arsenal.

Update: You can check out our spreadsheets, too. We’re about 138,000 votes ahead of the SoS.

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I was pessimistic last time about Kamala Harris’ chances, but daman09’s excellent analysis inspired me to do another county-by-county canvass of results with new projections. And as the title would give it away, things are looking MUCH better for Kamala.

Going county-by-county for the most recent updates, Harris now leads by 4,565 votes, 4,141,477 to Cooley’s 4,137,212.

While the SoS estimates 898,458 votes left to process, I estimate about 636,669, using the most recent estimates from individual counties when available and adjustments to the UBR counts where appropriate.

In the counties left standing, I’m conservatively estimating Harris’ weighted performance to be 46.08% to Cooley’s 45.14%, which should be good for another 5,993 votes.

Perhaps most significantly, Harris is performing better in the Abs/Prov/VBMs that have been added. Based on her performance as of our November 8th county-by-county canvass and and the origin of the 1,042,711 tabulated since then, we would have expected Kamala to outperform Cooley by 0.84%, for a margin of 8,707. But instead, she’s actually outperformed Cooley by 2.28%, improving her margin by 23,754.

Her swings in counties are as follows:

My estimation of the number of unprocessed ballots differs from the UBR for the following counties:

• Butte: +222, per the county update.
  

• Contra Costa: -9,411 to adjust for votes added since November 12.
  

• Imperial: -5,557 to adjust for votes added since November 6.
  

• Los Angeles: -55,762 to adjust for votes added November 12.
  

• Marin: -19,108 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• Monterey: -27,126 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• Orange: -43,227, per the county update.
  

• Placer: +27,956 to restore the estimates to those on November 6. Placer County has not updated its results since November 3.
  

• Riverside: -900, per the county update.
  

• San Bernardino: -7,000 per the county update.
  

• San Diego: -11,470 per the county update.
  

• San Francisco: -10,037 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• San Joaquin: -32,279 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• San Mateo: -26,812; San Mateo has actually added 34,601 votes since November 8; I’ve now assumed 0.
  

• Santa Clara: -9,686 to adjust for votes added since November 10.
  

• Santa Cruz: -20,592 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• Yolo: -9,791 per the County; the County now lists no unprocessed ballots.
  

• Yuba: -1,209 per the County’s labeling of its latest update as “Final.”

Movers and shakers below: