Swing State Project

Welcome to this super-massive edition of StephenCLE’s Election Rankings:

With election day now just 12 days away, in an effort to avoid spamming up the diaries area, I have combined all of my prognostications into one, industrial-sized effort. So here we go.  

Ladies and gentlemen of SSP, I am frustrated.  I am also annoyed.  The reason for my trouble is that I don’t know what to believe.  This whole time, democrats in the House have been running ahead of the national generic ballot, and I held onto the belief that at some point, either the national polls or the state/district polls had to relent and fall in line with the other.  It now appears obvious that this is not likely.  This week actually saw most Senate democrats improving their position in all regions except for the west coast, and though some House democrats struggled this week, others improved their position.  Yet the generic ballot got worse for Team Blue, surging from a 4.5 point republican advantage last week to a 6-point lead in the most recent pollster.com average.  So now I’m stuck between trying to decide who is the real adjudicator of truth.  In most cases, I’m starting to hedge a bit on the individual district polls, subtracting a point or two from the democratic totals to attribute for the generic ballot.

The other big development within the past week is that the playing field has expanded, not just on the democratic side, but the republican one as well.  Many R-leaning seats that appeared out of reach seem to be attainable for the democrats, prompting many leftward changes.  So without further ado, here’s where we stand:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 219 Democrats, 216 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +37

Democratic Pickups (6) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1, WA-8

Republican Pickups (43) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, GA-8, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MS-1, NH-1, ND-1, NC-8, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, PA-7, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8, WV-1

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – AZ-5, IL-17, NC-8, NH-1, PA-10, TN-4, WV-1

Republican to Democrat – NH-2, PA-8

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+8

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+15

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+10

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+5

The Map:

Ratings Changes for October 13-20:

1.New York-22 – Solid D to Lean D – It’s not good to lose your cool in politics.  For shame Hinchey.

2.Ohio-10 – Solid D to Likely D – I’ve always thought Kucinich’s unpopularity could make this interesting.

3.Maine-2 – Likely D to Solid D – Polling suggests that Michaud is pretty much safe now.

4.Ohio-6 – Likely D to Lean D – Rumors of Wilson’s domestic abuse are disquieting.

5.California-20 – Likely D to Lean D – The Central Valley could be intimidating, but Costa still leads.

6.Arkansas-4 – Lean D to Likely D – Ross leading big in polling this week, is looking good.

7.Pennsylvania-13 – Likely D to Solid D – Philly Burbs are moving back to Ds, good news for Schwartz.

8.New York-23 – Lean D to Toss Up – 2-way race makes it harder on Owens to win.  

9.New York-24 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D – Arcuri has been surprisingly strong this cycle.

10.New Jersey-12 – Likely D to Lean D – Polls show Holt only up by 5.

11.Minnesota-1 – Likely D to Lean D – Walz in slightly tighter race than thought, but still ahead.

12.Oregon-5 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D – Schrader locked in a tight one with Bruun.

13.Illinois-17 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Hare got caught totally flatfooted, and the top of ticket sucks.

14.North Carolina-8 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt R – This move is more national, Kissell’s probably eroded.

15.New Hampshire-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Shea-Porter consistently behind in polling.

16.New Hampshire-2 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D – Phenomenal surge by Kuster recently.

17.Pennsylvania-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R – Re-election chances slipping away for Dahlkemper.

18.Pennsylvania-8 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D – Philly burbs going blue gets Murphy over hump.

19.Pennsylvania-10 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – District simply too red for Carney this year.

20.Tennessee-4 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Dejarlais has lead, and generic ballot is scary.

21.Washington-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R – Herrera might win this without even campaigning.

22.Arkansas-1 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R – Causey still alive in close race with AR improving barely.

23.Arizona-3 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R – Hulburd lead from PPP means it’s game on here.

24.Arizona-5 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Can’t make up my mind on this one, national move.

25.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Same here, national move over local race.  

26.California-44 – Likely R to Lean R – Hedrick showing competitive in polls, if only he had the cash.

27.Tennessee-5 – Solid D to Likely D – The PVI suggests that Cooper could be in trouble in a wave state.

The Senate:

The situation in the Senate has improved rather dramatically for Team Blue in the last several days, to the point where it is now fairly conceivable to see them keep 55 or 56 seats if everything goes their way on election night.  Pennsylvania is definitely the biggest mover, as I now have that seat moving into the blue column while Nevada actually drifted the other way.  West Virginia is now on the positive side of the ledger as well (unless you’re a republican).  Missouri and Kentucky are definitely races to watch now as well, as Carnahan and Conway saw good polling results this week, especially the latter.  I’ve moved both races to toss-up.  In all honesty, I think that Missouri could be this week’s Pennsylvania, and that a Carnahan close similar to Sestak could be coming.  New Hampshire is still out there, but it’s a very unlikely victory I think.  The 4th and final seat that the democrats might have a shot at is Alaska, which has de-generated into a 3-way free-for-all.  For the purposes of that race, I consider Miller and Murkowski one in the same, and the Dem chances are solely the chances that McAdams wins.  I’ve included my probabilities of each seat flipping on the commentary.

First off, to the map:

Senate Math:

Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate – 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +6

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem pickups – none

Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada

Ratings Commentary:

1.North Dakota (100%) – This one’s a lock.  

2.Arkansas (99%) – This seat is virtually gone as well.  Blanche is becoming marginally better in polling, but Boozman is still well over 50%.  This would be a real miracle.

3.Indiana (96%) – Now that Ellsworth is up with ads all over Indiana, I wonder if this race has tightened at all.  The dearth of polling here makes it hard to tell.  Still, Coats is extremely likely to win here.

4.Wisconsin (85%) – Feingold is improving marginally in the polls now, but Johnson is still pulling in at least 49% in every poll I’ve seen.  Still hard to see how Feingold pulls it out unless if Johnson loses his favorables somehow as Feingold is a known quantity.

5.Colorado (58%) – This race is still close, with both sides claiming a lead in various surveys.  I’m surprised that the independent nature of the CO electorate hasn’t turned against Bennet, he’s actually been quite impressive and has about a 4 in 10 chance of pulling it off.

6.Nevada (52%) – Angle has moved into the lead, barely.  But the fact that she has any lead at all speaks to just how much Nevadans don’t like Harry Reid.  This is going to be a very ugly finish on both sides, and it’s a jump ball.

——————————————————————————————————————————————–

7.Illinois (49%) – This begins the start of the blue column, and it’s a cliffhanger right now between Giannoulias and Kirk.  The fact that PPP had Kirk leading this week really concerns me, as it shows that maybe Democrats won’t come home to Alexi like I thought they would.  Still, I think Giannoulias wins this one because of IL’s partisan lean.

8.Pennsylvania (46%) – This race started moving a bit last week, and I got some flak for moving this race into the toss-up column.  While I don’t want to self-gloss, that was the right call, as earlier this week Joe Sestak surged into a statistical tie with Pat Toomey and probably a very small lead if PPP, Quinnipiac, and Muhlenberg are to be believed.  This one is better than IL because Sestak is better than Giannoulias.

9.West Virginia (39%) – We have a bit of conflicting data right now in WV.  Some polls late last week made it look like Manchin was pulling away, yet Scotty Rass came to Raese’s rescue earlier this week with both his original recipe and extra crispy polling.  I suspect that Manchin is winning, and that he’ll pull away late because of his extremely strong favorables.

10.Washington (34%) – Unlike other parts of the country, it appears that the west coast is moving rightward right now, and Dino Rossi has closed the gap somewhat on Patty Murray.  I’ve yet to see him get over the 46% mark in any polls though, and that has to be a concern for any GOPers that are hoping for a pickup here.  Murray’s favorables are still very good.

11.Kentucky (32%) – Kentucky makes a foray into the rankings on the back of several good polls for Jack Conway.  This is probably a low single digit race now, and if the undecideds break away from Paul, who knows, this one could turn over.  I’m ambivalent though because after all, this is Kentucky.

12.Alaska (23%) – The crazy three-way nature of this race makes this one unpredictable.  The major question on everybody’s mind is whether or not people will write in for Murkowski like they are telling pollsters, and if not, to whom will they go, Miller or McAdams?  This is probably a 35-35-28 race right now, putting it in the same neighborhood as CA and MO, just slightly higher because of ballot situation.

13.California (19%) – Fiorina is showing some fight even though her compatriot Meg Whitman is falling in the governor’s race.  She’s even tied with Boxer in some republican polling, although Boxer has a lead in all independent surveys that I’ve seen.  Still, this is going to be a very tough one for Fiorina to pull out because of CA’s democratic electorate.

14.Missouri (17%) – Roy Blunt’s lead on Robin Carnahan has dropped into the mid-single digits, and what I think is telling is that, even in his best of surveys, Blunt was barely hitting the 50% mark.  If Carnahan closes strongly, this could be a race that shocks everybody on election night.  I’ve always thought that Carnahan was the superior candidate anyway.

Pretty much everything is quiet on the gubernatorial side of things.  I only had one governorship changing hands this week, that one being Maine where Paul LePage has led by 3-5 points in most recent polls.  But considering those leads are of the 33-28-14 variety, anything is still possible here.  

The governor races I’m watching most closely are all cliffhangers, those being Florida, Oregon, Vermont, Ohio, and Maine.  Florida and Ohio are huge races not only for the statehouse balance but also for redistricting, as wins by Alex Sink and Ted Strickland would undo republican gerrymanders of congressional seats.  Right now I have Sink barely ahead, Strickland barely behind.  At the moment I have Kitzhaber and Shumlin barely ahead as well, though I’m more confident about the former than the latter.

One last note, Rhode Island, I consider independent candidate Lincoln Chafee as a democrat, so combined between him and Frank Caprio, RI-Gov is a solid D pickup.

Current Governors – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

New Governors – 20 democrats, 30 republicans

Swing – Republicans +6

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem Pickups – Rhode Island, Connecticut, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Florida, Vermont

Rep Pickups – Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio, Maine

The Map:

And now, the Big Boards:

2010 House Big Board (as of October 21 update)

Solid Dem – 146 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, ME-1, ME-2, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 28 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-7 (Grijalva)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Michigan-15 (Dingell)

Minnesota-8 (Oberstar)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-10 (Kucinich)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Tennessee-5 (Cooper)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 30 seats:

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-22 (Hinchey)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

Ohio-16 (Wilson)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-27 (Ortiz)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 15 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-23 (Owens)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 27 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Lean Rep – 21 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Likely Rep – 11 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 156 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-8, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

2010 Senate Big Board (as of October 21)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

Hawaii (Inouye)

Maryland (Mikulski)

New York (Schumer)

New York (Gillibrand)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Leahy)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Delaware (Open)

Lean Dem – 1 seats

California (Boxer)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 4 seats

Illinois (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

Washington (Murray)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 5 seats

Colorado (Open)

Missouri (Open)

Kentucky (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Lean Rep – 2 seats

Alaska (Murkowski)

New Hampshire (Open)

Likely Rep – 7 seats

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Florida (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Louisiana (Vitter)

North Carolina (Burr)

Ohio (Open)

Solid Rep – 11 seats

Arizona (McCain)

Alabama (Shelby)

Georgia (Isakson)

Idaho (Crapo)

Iowa (Grassley)

Kansas (Open)

North Dakota (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

South Carolina (Demint)

South Dakota (Thune)

Utah (Open)

2010 Governors Big Board (as of October 21)

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

New Hampshire

New York

Rhode Island

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Lean Dem – 5 seats

California

Hawaii

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Toss Up – 7 seats

Florida

Illinois

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Georgia

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Texas

Wisconsin

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Alaska

Arizona

Iowa

Michigan

Nevada

Solid Rep – 9 seats

Alabama

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

This is Part 3 in a continuing series about the surprising result in the 2010 Democratic primary for States’ Attorney for the City of Baltimore.

For a broad overview of what’s going here, check out Part 1. For a summary of the methodology I’m using and what I’m looking for, check out Part 2.

I think I might have gone a little overboard here, but anyone who likes close electoral analysis will find a bunch of it below the fold…

I went through precinct data through a series of pre-2010 elections, both primary and general, to see what patterns I could discern from them.

* 2006 Baltimore City State’s Attorney (D Primary)

Two-person race between incumbent Patricia Jessamy and little-known challenger Stephen Fogleman. Jessamy generally coasted to re-election but enough people voted for an opponent who ran a minimal campaign, plus those who neglected to vote in that race, to suggest a certain level of dissatisfaction with her performance.

* 2006 U.S. Senate (D Primary)

A 18 candidate free-for-all for the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by retiring Paul Sarbanes. Almost all the attention, especially in Baltimore, was on two men: Rep. Ben Cardin (D-MD-03) and former NAACP head and former Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-MD-07). Other candidates included:  Joshua Rales, a wealthy Montgomery County businessman (and former Republican) who seemed to have at least as much presence on TV as either Cardin or Mfume; former Baltimore County executive Dennis Rasmussen; American University professor Allan Lichtman; attorney and perennial candidate Mike Schaefer (no relation to the former governor, but probably gets some votes from the confusion); and activist A. Robert Kaufman, an avowed socialist and also a perennial candidate.  

Nearly all of Baltimore’s mostly black precincts voted strongly for Mfume (which was enough for him to carry the city easily despite falling short statewide) while Cardin carried the vast majority of the mostly white precincts. The latter group also supported the other candidates at higher levels. There was some talk in the run-up to that race that with a large field of second-tier or lower candidates mostly depriving Cardin of votes rather than Mfume would allow Mfume to prevail. Cardin won statewide, but the city was a different story as Mfume won 63.8% of the vote. While a few of the minor candidates (plus Schaefer, who finished fifth) actually did slightly better in the black precincts, those votes were way outnumbered by votes for Rales alone in the white precincts, which is also where nearly all the Baltimore votes for Rasmussen and Lichtman were found. So I counted the votes for the other candidates as non-Mfume votes for our purposes.

* 2006 Maryland Governor (General)

A hotly contested battle between incumbent Republican Robert Ehrlich and Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley, one being reprised this time.

Obviously O’Malley carried Baltimore as a whole easily, carrying every precinct save for two, but I’ll be looking for pockets of support for Ehrlich in some precincts to how those areas line up with areas that gave Jessamy especially low levels of support either time; I’ll also be looking at those areas to see the extent to how many of these voters are registered as Republican or independent.  

I’d have liked to have seen a competitive Democratic primary where race was less of a factor, but there isn’t one in the recent record. Ehrlich, for a Maryland Republican, has developed a lot more cross-party appeal than is customary; most GOP candidates statewide get far fewer Baltimore votes than Ehrlich’s 21.64% share.

* 2006 Maryland Senate (General)

A closer-than-usual U.S. Senate contest pitting Rep. Benjamin Cardin against Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. An interesting reversal of the usual scenario; here a black Republican squared off against a white Democrat. Steele attracted some crossover votes among blacks in Baltimore but nowhere near enough to get him into the Senate; it didn’t help him that white voters in Baltimore supported him, for whatever reason, at lower rates than they did Ehrlich. Steele failed to carry any of the city’s 290 precincts but won 22.56% of the Baltimore vote, which is higher than usual for a GOP statewide candidate and about a point ahead of Ehrlich’s total.  

* 2008 U.S. President (D Primary)

A pitched battle that, by time it came Maryland’s turn to weigh in, was essentially between two Senators, Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barack Obama (D-IL.) Obama won easily in Maryland as a whole, including in Baltimore City, taking all but 24 of the city’s precincts and earning 74.59% of the vote. I’m hunting for the Clinton supporters and to what extent centers of Clinton support also formed the centers of opposition to Jessamy, both this time and last time. I’ll be contrasting that with the behavior of predominantly white precincts where Obama fared well.    

OK, here’s what I’ll be looking for from every part of Baltimore. First, the map, so those of you with any familiarity with Baltimore can follow along…

1. Brooklyn/Cherry Hill [12 precincts, dark blue]

Population (2008 est): 28637

Demographics: 55 Blk, 40 Wht, 2 Hisp, 1 Asn, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-02  Leg Dist.: 46th

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 71, Fogleman 29 (1604)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 62, Cardin 28 (1790)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 76, Ehrlich 22 (3689)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 73, Steele 26 (3635)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 71, Clinton 27 (2518)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 84, McCain 14 (7180)

Something of a mixed bag of traditionally blue-collar waterfront South Baltimore neighborhoods. Cherry Hill is nearly all black, Curtis Bay mostly white, Brooklyn and Westport are more mixed. The area has considerable gentrification potential, particularly Westport; it has largely gone unrealized.

The politically interesting fact about this zone is that it is the bellwether for Baltimore, with its results closely mirroring the city as a whole every time.  

I’m not sure what I’m looking for here, other than turnout disparities between neighborhoods.  

2. Federal Hill Area [11 precincts, dark green]

Population: 18145

Demographics: 84 Wht, 11 Blk, 2 Hisp, 2 Asn, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-03 [10], MD-07 [1]  Leg. Dist: 46th

2006 SA-Pri: Fogleman 55, Jessamy 45 (1836)

2006 Sen-Pri: Cardin 72, Mfume 20 (2092)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 58, Ehrlich 40 (5276)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 63, Steele 35 (5250)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 52, Clinton 46 (2797)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 63, McCain 34 (7945)

The whitest of the 20 zones – and seemingly the one with the greatest percentage of Republican voters – it includes the Federal Hill, South Baltimore and Locust Point areas. Some of the more traditionally working-class areas away from Federal Hill have seen a yuppie invasion in recent years. Note that the Sharp-Leadenhall area is demographically somewhat different from the rest of the zone.

Bob Ehrlich in 2006 had his best numbers in the city here, and so did Michael Steele in his effort to win a Senate seat for the GOP.

Already relatively hostile to Jessamy last time around, I’m looking to see just how low her support got here in the face of a more publicized and credible challenger.

3. Southwest Baltimore [9 Precincts, dark purple]

Population: 21126

Demographics: 68 Wht, 26 Blk, 2 Hisp, 2 Asn, 2 Oth

U.S. House: MD-03 [5], MD-07 [4]

Leg. Dist: 44th [6], 46th [3]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 54, Fogleman 46 (1179)

2006 Sen-Pri: Cardin 49, Mfume 39 (1389)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 65, Ehrlich 33 (3081)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 64, Steele 33 (1954)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 53, Clinton 44 (1809)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 70, McCain 28 (5345)

A long string of disparate traditionally blue-collar areas from Pigtown (called “Washington Village” by real estate agents b/c it sounds better) just SW of downtown through Carroll Park and Morrell Park to Violetville.  Most of these areas are more integrated than most of Baltimore, except for heavily white Violetville. Since this zone contains two large industrial areas, the population is relatively low. The interesting political wrinkle here was the relatively strong support for Hillary among this zone’s white population, more than you’d expect it to be based their the 2006 support levels of Mfume and Jessamy.This area is somewhat more conservative than the city as a whole, as demonstrated by the higher levels of support for Ehrlich, Steele, and McCain.    

I’m looking for a bigger-than average move to Bernstein here, due to its demonstrated conservative bent.

4. Edmondson [11 Precincts, red]

Population: 38068

Demographics:87 Blk, 10 Wht, 1 Hisp, 1 Asn, 1 Oth  

U.S. House: MD-07  Leg. Dist: 44th [7], 41st [4]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 80, Fogleman 20 (3531)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 81, Cardin 15 (4111)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 83, Ehrlich 16 (6814)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 80, Steele 19 (6722)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 84, Clinton 14 (5752)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 95, McCain 4 (11527)

A cluster of neighborhoods in the west and southwest of Baltimore, this zone which I named for Edmondson Avenue (which carries Route 40 almost out of the city) it has a few run-down areas but is primarily known for being home to many of Baltimore’s black middle class residents.

Sizable white minorities live in Beechfield along the border with Catonsville.  

Here’s one of the places where I find out how much movement away from Jessamy happened among the black middle class. Of the eight zones with a clear-cut black majority, this one was her weakest – though much of that can be attributed to two precincts with a fairly large white population.

5. West Baltimore [27 Precincts, mustard yellow]

Population: 57424

Demographics: 97 Blk, 1 Wht, 1 Hisp, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-07   Leg. Dist: 44th [14], 40th [11], 41st [2]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 85, Fogleman 15 (6106)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 87, Cardin 8 (7000)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 88, Ehrlich 10 (10804)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 82, Steele 17 (10514)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 83, Clinton 15 (8969)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 99, McCain 1 (20086)

The West Baltimore zone is a collection of the some of the most troubled neighborhoods in the city. I largely drew out areas that had large numbers of middle-class residents or were particularly attractive areas to would-be gentrifiers, though most of the campus of Coppin State (an HBCU) is here. It has few residents who are not both black and poor. This is Kweisi Mfume’s old home turf, so it’s not surprising that he held all the other candidates, including Cardin, into single digits.

This was Jessamy’s third best performing zone four years ago and as such will be a topic of interest. I’ll be looking to see how much these residents moved away from her this time and how much turnout dropped here. If there was big movement away from her, it would cause me to lean towards the narrative that many people in crime-plagued neighborhoods have grown weary of a chief prosecutor who often sounds more like a social worker when she talks about crime.  

6. Near West Baltimore [16 precincts, teal blue]

Population: 34611

Demographics: 86 Blk, 11 Wht, 1 Hisp, 1 Asn, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-07

Leg. Dist.: 44th [10], 40th [6]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 80, Fogleman 20 (2539)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 81, Cardin 13 (3479)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 85, Ehrlich 12 (5495)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 80, Steele 17 (5368)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 81, Clinton 18 (4369)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 97, McCain 3 (10381)

The various parts of the Near West Baltimore zone, from Poppleton to the south through Upton and over to Reservoir Hill in the north are a bit more of a mix. Some of its blocks are just as bleak as those in the West Baltimore zone above, while others have seen considerable new development. The common thread is relative convenience to downtown , other areas with a diverse base of businesses, or major commuter routes to job centers to the south, that make them more attractive to potential new residents.  

This zone was created mostly to test the possible role of gentrification in the election result change. What role did new residents play in Jessamy’s ouster?

7. Downtown & Midtown [15 precincts, gray]  

Population: 21529

Demographics: 50 Blk, 40 Wht, 6 Asn, 2 Hisp, 2 Oth

U.S. House: MD-07 [14], MD-03 [1]

Leg. Dist.: 44th [6], 40th [5], 46th [4]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 56, Fogleman 44 (1981)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 57, Cardin 36 (2724)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 79, Ehrlich 18 (5638)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 78, Steele 18 (5580)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 70, Clinton 29 (3968)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 88, McCain 10 (9861)

The Downtown-Midtown zone runs from the Inner Harbor at one end to Penn Station and Bolton Hill at the other end. Demographically, it’s the city’s most diverse and mixed area, and also contains Mount Vernon, the center of Baltimore’s LGBT community. There’s also a large student population; the University of Baltimore, MICA, and the Baltimore campus of the University of Maryland are all here.

Which way the precincts of this zone went in this election will tell much of the story. I’d expect a heightened concern about crime in this most densely populated part of the city, even though there are areas statistically that are far less safe. Since there’s been a lot of new residential activity in this zone, I’ll be watching for gentrification-related changes as well.

8. East Baltimore [24 Precincts, lavender]

Population: 60803

Demographics: 94 Blk, 4 Wht, 1 Hisp, 1 Asn, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-07

Leg. Dist.: 45th [13], 44th [6], 43rd [2], 40th [2], 46th [1]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 85, Fogleman 15 (4488)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 85, Cardin 10 (4962)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 88, Ehrlich 10 (8007)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 82, Steele 17 (7762)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 83, Clinton 15 (5349)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 99, McCain 1 (15112)

Much like the West Baltimore zone, most of the neighborhoods of the East Baltimore zone very much fit the profile of a troubled inner city area, plagued by poverty and crime, with boarded up houses galore. This zone does have Johns Hopkins Hospital and a planned adjacent biotech park going for it, and somewhat more potential for the northward creep of new residents priced out of Harbor East, Canton or Fells Point.  

This was Jessamy’s 2nd strongest zone in 2006. Not surprisingly, Mfume and Obama racked up big margins here as well.  If Jessamy’s support eroded here at a higher rate than the city as a whole, I’ll look closer to see there’s been an influx of people into the fringes of this zone.

9. Fells Point & Canton [11 precincts, aqua]

Population: 28449

Demographics: 61 Wht, 26 Blk, 8 Hisp, 2 Asn, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-03 [10], MD-07 [1]

Leg. Dist.: 46th

2006 SA-Pri: Fogleman 56, Jessamy 44 (2172)

2006 Sen-Pri: Cardin 64, Mfume 25 (2543)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 62, Ehrlich 36 (6137)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 68, Steele 30 (6106)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 55, Clinton 41 (3514)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 70, McCain 28 (9841)

There are two stories to tell about Fells Point and Canton. One is of young professionals seeking unique shopping and nightlife and deciding that some of the oldest parts of the old city were where it’s at. The other is of a rapidly growing Hispanic (chiefly Central American) that has chosen this zone as its main hub in Charm City.

This area four years ago voted against Patricia Jessamy in favor of an opponent about whom little was known. I’d guess there was nearly universal support for Bernstein this time around. If there wasn’t, I’ll look to a Hispanic population wary of a chief prosecutor closely allied with the police as a possible reason.  

10. Highlandtown [13 Precincts, magenta]

Population: 28708

Demographics: 71 Wht, 19 Wht, 5 Hisp, 1 Asn, 3 Oth

U.S. House: MD-03 [10], MD-02 [2], MD-07 [1]

Leg. Dist.: 46th [12], 45th [1]

2006 SA-Pri: Fogleman 52, Jessamy 48 (1865)

2006 Sen-Pri: Cardin 69, Mfume 18 (2170)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 60, Ehrlich 38 (4416)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 63, Steele 34 (4376)

2008 Pres-Pri: Clinton 57, Obama 37 (2386)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 61, McCain 37 (6580)

A little rougher around the edges than the somewhat similar zone to its west, the Highlandtown area has also seen new and younger residents move in, mostly either white or Hispanic.

Much like the East Side of Baltimore County, which it borders, this area has long been known for conservative Reagan Democrats. In the 2006 Senate primary Mfume recorded his worst result in the city. This were the only part of the city to back Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama (her second-best zone, Federal Hill, gave her 45% of the vote)in the primaries in 2008. In November of that year Obama only did as well here as he did in the state as a whole.

11. Frankford [15 Precincts, lime green]

Population: 36849

Demographics: 78 Blk, 19 Wht, 1 Hisp, 1 Asn, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-02 [13], MD-03 [2]

Leg. Dist.: 45th

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 81, Fogleman 19 (3814)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 81, Cardin 15 (4153)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 81, Ehrlich 17 (7234)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 77, Steele 21 (7180)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 83, Clinton 15 (6154)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 95, McCain 5 (13755)

Found on both sides of I-95 leaving Baltimore towards the eastern suburbs, the Frankford area is a bit off the beaten path to outsiders, myself included. It’s home to a sizable and stable middle-class population. None of this area, interestingly enough, is assigned to the black majority MD-07.

Nothing about this zone really stands out from its peers.

12. Northeast Baltimore [22 Precincts, medium blue]

Population: 48293

Demographics: 58 Wht, 37 Blk, 1 Hisp, 1 Asn, 2 Oth

U.S. House: MD-03 [13], MD-02 [7], MD-07 [2]

Leg. Dist.: 45th [17], 43rd [5]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 61, Fogleman 39 (5639)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 51, Cardin 40 (5905)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 68, Ehrlich 30 (12289)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 66, Steele 31 (12247)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 71, Clinton 26 (8412)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 79, McCain 20 (19116)

The various neighborhoods that comprise the Northeast Baltimore zone are among the more racially and economically mixed (though there are few Hispanics or Asians here) in the city. It’s mostly a middle-class area and relatively low density by Baltimore standards.

It’s hard to tell what a big move to Bernstein would signal here. It could be disproportionately lower black turnout but could also be residents rejecting Jessamy across the board.

13. Northwood/Govans [18 precincts, tan]

Population: 44340

Demographics: 84 Blk, 12 Wht, 1 Hisp, 1 Asn, 2 Oth

U.S. House: MD-02 [8], MD-07 [7], MD-03 [3]

Leg. Dist: 43rd

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 82, Fogleman 18 (6261)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 79, Cardin 17 (6885)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 83, Ehrlich 15 (11134)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 79, Steele 19 (10999)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 85, Clinton 14 (9657)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 96, McCain 3 (18526)

The Northwood/Govans zone is one of the main redoubts of Baltimore’s black middle class, though sizable white minorities can be found in its northernmost reaches near Towson. In the context of this race, another wrinkle is that Patricia Jessamy happens to live in Northwood; not surprisingly, her support topped 80% here.

14. Waverly/Montebello [12 precincts, olive]

Population: 24119

Demographics: 86 Blk, 10 Wht, 1 Asn, 1 Hisp, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-07   Leg. Dist: 43rd

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 81, Fogleman 19 (3137)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 79, Cardin 16 (3442)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 85, Ehrlich 13 (5474)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 81, Steele 17 (5408)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 83, Clinton 15 (4802)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 97, McCain 2 (9385)

The Waverly/Montebello zone is something of a hybrid between relatively well-off Northwood and relatively run-down East Baltimore. The Waverly neighborhood is relatively close to Johns Hopkins with good access to downtown, so is something of a focus for urban gentrification.

With its mix of prosperous and struggling, this is a decent microcosm of most of Baltimore outside of the mostly white neighborhoods.

15. Roland Park/Guilford/Homeland [12 Precincts, orange]

Population: 18847

Demographics: 83 Wht, 11 Blk, 2 Asn, 2 Hisp, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-03 [11], MD-07 [1]

Leg. Dist.: 43rd [7], 41st [4], 40th [1]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 52, Fogleman 48 (3885)

2006 Sen-Pri: Cardin 71, Mfume 25 (4480)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 67, Ehrlich 31 (8036)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 72, Steele 26 (8029)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 60, Clinton 38 (5440)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 75, McCain 23 (9928)

Roland Park, Guilford, and Homeland are where Baltimore’s wealthiest residents generally choose to settle, as well as students at Loyola.  Homeland is the most suburban;  Guilford carries the most old-money cachet; Roland Park is a bit less stuffy than the other two. The whole area is relatively white, especially for Baltimore, but Jessamy in 2006 did somewhat better in these precincts than she did in the other mostly white areas. (Note: Gregg Bernstein lives in Roland Park, which might affect things.) This zone was one of Mfume’s worst in the city (25%) but Obama’s numbers were relatively strong here, both primary and general.    

16. Charles Village [9 Precincts, light green]

Population: 28820

Demographics: 51 Wht, 32 Blk, 11 Asn, 3 Hisp, 2 Oth

U.S. House: MD-07

Leg. Dist.: 40th [6], 43rd [3]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 64, Fogleman 36 (1554)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 58, Cardin 35 (1819)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 83, Ehrlich 16 (3514)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 80, Steele 16 (3477)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 70, Clinton 29 (2525)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 90, McCain 7 (5737)

Charles Village is among the more racially mixed parts of Baltimore, and also widely variant in terms of socioeconomic status, generally going from poorer to more affluent as you move northward. Johns Hopkins casts a big shadow on this area, contributing to the sizable Asian population found in the area. Additionally, the more marginal areas in this zone have seen considerable gentrification activity.

Of the zones without a black majority, Charles Village was the biggest backers of both Mfume and Obama. To further note the relatively liberal bent of this area, it gave black conservative Michael Steele his worst showing in the entire city.

The interesting angle here is that one of the big high-profile crimes of 2010 happened here; a white JHU graduate student was fatally stabbed in August during a robbery, committed by a couple that included a man with a very long rap sheet, on a block many had long considered relatively safe. Jessamy made an appearance at a vigil for the student and got a very hostile reception from residents. She got 60% of the vote in 2006; my guess is that her support plummeted here.

17. Hampden [9 Precincts, dark blue-gray]

Population: 16783

Demographics: 84 Wht, 10 Blk, 3 Asn, 2 Hisp, 2 Oth

U.S. House: MD-03 [7], MD-07 [2]

Leg. Dist.: 40th

2006 SA-Pri: Fogleman 56, Jessamy 44 (1670)

2006 Sen-Pri: Cardin 62, Mfume 28 (1956)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 67, Ehrlich 30 (4384)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 70, Steele 26 (4381)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 56, Clinton 41 (2721)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 72, McCain 26 (6219)

Hampden is a traditional bastion of blue-collar whites that has been transformed somewhat into a neighborhood with trendy restaurants and art galleries. (Note: Hampden is also where Answer Guy lives.) Historically it has been among the most conservative parts of Baltimore and among the least willing to support African-American candidates (it’s the second whitest zone and has the smallest black population) for any office.  It missed being Jessamy’s worst zone by a small fraction of a percent in 2006. We may be seeing a change in the voting patterns, though, as more traditional residents leave for the suburbs and younger singles replace them; I’d have never guessed that Mfume would poll better here than in the Roland Park zone, but he did.

I obviously expect Hampden to be one of Bernstein’s strongholds.

18. Mount Washington/Cross Country [11 Precincts, bright yellow]

Population: 24240

Demographics: 69 Wht, 25 Blk, 2 Hisp, 2 Asn, 2 Oth

U.S. House: MD-03 [10], MD-07 [1]

Leg. Dist.: 41st

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 57, Fogleman 43 (4604)

2006 Sen-Pri: Cardin 65, Mfume 31 (5447)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 62, Ehrlich 37 (8778)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 76, Steele 23 (8747)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 58, Clinton 37 (5746)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 67, McCain 32 (11700)

Found at the northwest corner of the city, the Mount Washington/Cross Country section of town is more residential and suburban (the commercial corridors are Falls Road at the east end and Reisterstown Road at the west end) than most of Baltimore. Demographically, it’s notable for being home to a large Jewish community, including one of the country’s largest populations of Orthodox Jews outside the New York metro area.  

The eastern precincts have a strong liberal flavor while the western ones, due in large part to the Orthodox factor, lean to the right; three of the city’s five precincts carried by McCain-Palin are here, as are the only two city precincts carried by Ehrlich in 2006. Note that, this didn’t filter down the ballot at all. Michael Steele topped out in the low 30s in those precincts; Republican candidates for Comptroller or Attorney General, or either GOP opponent of Rep. Sarbanes, who represents this entire area didn’t even get that far. Steele trailed Ehrlich in every mostly white part of Baltimore, but the gap expanded to 14 points here.

Jessamy in 2006 actually did a little better here than in the rest of North Baltimore.  We’ll find how much that held up this time in 2010, especially given that Bernstein is Jewish.

19. Park Heights [14 Precincts, yellow-green]

Population: 37492

Demographics: 94 Blk, 3 Wht, 1 Hisp, 1 Oth

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 82, Fogleman 18 (3439)

U.S. House: MD-07 [9], MD-03 [5]

Leg. Dist.: 40th [7], 41st [7]

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 84, Cardin 11 (3797)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 86, Ehrlich 12 (5836)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 81, Steele 18 (5723)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 82, Clinton 16 (4853)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 98, McCain 1 (10331)

Park Heights in northwest Baltimore has definitely seen better days. There are some middle-class communities at its far northern end, but most residents are relatively poor. The majority of Park Heights denizens are African-American; portions of it have sizable communities of immigrants from Africa and the Caribbean.  

Somewhat similar to East Baltimore and West Baltimore, I’ll be looking for drops in turnout and whether this region matches its peers generally.

20. Forest Park/Arlington [20 Precincts, pink]

Population: 39871

Demographics: 94 Blk, 4 Wht, 1 Hisp, 1 Oth

U.S. House: MD-07

Leg. Dist.: 41st [16], 40th [4]

2006 SA-Pri: Jessamy 85, Fogleman 15 (6695)

2006 Sen-Pri: Mfume 85, Cardin 12 (7307)

2006 Gov-Gen: O’Malley 84, Ehrlich 14 (10817)

2006 Sen-Gen: Cardin 79, Steele 19 (10571)

2008 Pres-Pri: Obama 86, Clinton 13 (9595)

2008 Pres-Gen: Obama 98, McCain 1 (17883)

Containing most of West Baltimore’s better neighborhoods, the Forest Park-Arlington zone is a collection of largely stable and mostly middle-class black neighborhoods. It’s famously home to a large number of Baltimore’s political community – Mayor Rawlings-Blake grew up here, and Mayor Kurt Schmoke lives here as well.  

The Forest Park-Arlington zone was actually Jessamy’s strongest in 2006, giving her over 85% of the vote, a bit of a deviation from the pattern where she otherwise ran a few points better in the poorest areas than in the other middle-class zones. Of course some of this can be attributed in a marginal way to the fact that its peer zones tend to have larger white minorities.  

And this result was not an anomaly, as the Mfume and Obama numbers look more like those of West Baltimore than of, say, Edmondson.

This zone also produced the most votes of any of the zones, so a turnout dropoff here would have hurt her considerably.

My conclusions from these anlayses:

1. Absent an unrealistically dramatic racial turnout gap you still can’t win a citywide election in Baltimore without a reasonable share of the black vote.

In 2006, Jessamy’s votes in the Type VI (i.e. 70% black or higher) precincts alone were enough to constitute a majority of all votes cast.

Cardin, because he was a known name who had represented a large portion of the city on Capitol Hill for years, and ran a well-funded campaign, got a bigger share of the white vote than Fogleman did in his race. Mfume still carried the city’s vote handily. The Obama/Clinton numbers from 2 years later tell a similar story, with the added wrinkle that Obama also did well in many mostly white areas.  

So, I asked what would have happened if a Jessamy opponent could get essentially everyone who voted for someone other than Mfume for that Senate seat but similar numbers among Mfume voters. And my theoretical challenger would have likely come up well short. You can get a little closer if you assume a turnout drop in black neighborhoods, but you only get a different result with a skew that goes beyond plausibility.      

2. The difference between the voting patterns in middle-class black areas and poorer black areas is, across these elections, nearly impossible to detect. I wasn’t much surprised by this in reference to these elections; I would expect any difference between these areas to manifest itself in local races rather than higher-level ones, particularly ones pitting one more black candidate against each other, with or without white opponents. Perhaps they would show up a little more in a well-fought local election?  

3. In the black-majority zones, the biggest differences I could discern were not based on class but on who else, if anyone, lived in the zone in question. Of the 11 zones with an African-American majority, there are 2 with a nearly even black-white split, 5 with a white minority between 10-20%, and 4 that are over 90% black.  

The second group are pretty varied in terms of class and urban/suburban character but voted in a very similar fashion. The third group is three relatively poor areas (East Baltimore, West Baltimore, and Park Heights) and one that’s mostly middle-class areas (Forest Park-Arlington) but they voted essentially the exact same way every time.

3. The differences in voting patterns in different white areas, on the other hand, can deviate significantly. Barack Obama won many white votes in Baltimore in both the primary and general elections. Mfume did well in some areas where whites outnumbered blacks. Some of this can be characterized as a distinction between so-called “beer track” versus “wine track” Democrats. Obama’s struggles in blue-collar white areas nationwide were much discussed, but the same phenomenon can be seen in other contexts in Baltimore.  

Next time: The Bernstein vs. Jessamy precinct numbers are now available, so we’re going to break down exactly what happened and try to figure out the why and the how behind the numbers.    

If you live in Florida, DON’T VOTE YET.  I know early voting is on now.  Don’t vote yet.

The reason is simple: If either Kendrick Meek or Charlie Crist drops out and endorses the other, then you can still change your vote.

Just don’t forget to actually vote after such a change happens, or if it doesn’t, to vote on Election Day anyway!

I have decided to take a stab at predicting the totals of Congressional seats lost this cycle. I am going to put my formulas that I list below into the expert’s predictions to find the outcome of the upcoming election.  

As noted these are pessimistic. Consider this a worst case scenario. I myself have been saying for a while now to expect a loss in the mid fifties. Feel free to tweak the model a bit, it is not hard at all.

This is my formula for calculating Democratic seats. I see anything under tossup going to team red, most tossups breaking away from us, a significant number of lean seats and even a couple of safe members. Feel free to tell me what you think should be switched around on these. Personally I debated lowering the leans a bit. My tossup formula may be a bit on the dark side as well.

100% Lean, Likely and safe R gone.

75% tossups are gone.

40% leans D are gone.

10% Likely D are gone.

0% Safe D are gone.

This is my formula for calculating Republican seats. They keep everything under tossup. They lose half their tossups and anything above it.

0% of Lean Likely or Safe gone

50% of Tossups are gone.

100% or Lean Likely or Safe are gone.

Here goes, I am no mathematician so please correct me if you see any errors. Many answer came out in decimals. I rounded up for .5 or higher and down for .4 and lower.  

Swing State Project

Democrats

16 Lean or Likely R= 16

42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32

32 Lean D= 12.8 round to 13

26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3

=64 Seats Lost.

Republicans

3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2

2 Lean D= 2

=4 seats lost.

Republicans Gain 60 seats.

Charlie Cook

Democrats

22 Lean or Likely R= 22

38 Tossups= 28.5 rounds to 29

30 Lean D= 12

25 Likely D= 2.5 rounds to 3  

=66 seats lost

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

=3 seats lost

Republicans gain 63 Seats.

Rothenberg

Note- So Rothenberg uses the tossup tilts method. Well I guess I should create a new formula but I will just clump all tossups together. Also I am counting R favored as Likely R.  

Democrats

18 Lean or Likely R= 18  

42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32

16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6

15 Likely D= 1.5 round to 2

= 58 seats lost

Republicans

4 Tossups= 2

2 Lean or Likely D= 2

= 4 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 54 seats.

CQ

Democrats

15 Lean Likely or Safe R = 15

37 Tossups= 27.75 round to 28

24 Lean D= 9.6 round to 10

24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2

= 55 Seat Loss

Republicans

3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2

2 Likely D= 2

= 4 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 51 seats.

Crystal Ball

Democrats

30 Lean or Likely R= 30

29 Tossups= 21.75 round to 22.

16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6

24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2

= 60 Seat Loss

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

=3 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 57 seats.

Real Clear Politics

Democrats

39 Lean or Likely R= 39

39 Tossups= 29.25 round to 29

29 Lean D= 11.6 round to 12  

26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3

= 83 seat loss

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

= 3 seat loss

Republicans gain 80 seats.

Real Clear Politics is by far the worst, I never like them. Averaging all of this data together Republicans gain 64 seats total. This is more than I expect but we will see. Here’s to me being wrong!  

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