Tag: Republicans

I've mentioned this before, but we have a good opportunity to create a filibuster-proof majority by the end of the 2010 senate elections. In order to take advantage of this we need to look at making sure that we exploit every last possibly competitive seat this cycle and the next one.

 

 First of all, this is my estimation of what the competitiveness of the 2010 senate cycle is going to look like:

(Held by Democrats)

(Likely competitive)

 

• Salazaar (Colorado)

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Lincoln (Arkansas)
• Boxer (California)
• Inouye (Hawaii)

(Held by Republicans)

 

(Likely competitive)

 

• Bunning (Kentucky)
• Specter (Pennsylvania)
• Burr (North Carolina)/
• McCain (Arizona)

 (Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Coburn (Oklahoma)
• Bond (Missouri)
• Voinovich (Ohio)
• Kansas open seat (Brownback)
• DeMint (South Carolina)

 

Now, this is a preliminary look at the 2010 map, and I'm certain there is going to be some disagreement as to the specifics, but 2010 is probably going be another year with a field that the Democrats can take advantage of (since the Republicans have already take most of the southern seats up in 2004, they have no real pool for picking up seats in 2010). Assuming we can win 5 seats in 2008, we'd have to pick up at least 4 more in 2010 in order to get that filibuster-proof majority we want (let''s face it, even in the best-case scenario, we're not getting a filibuster-proof majority in 2008).

That's the good news, the bad news is in 2012, where the map is stacked very heavily against us. There are going to be 24 Democrats up for re-election in 2012 compared to only 9 Republicans (ok, fine 22 Democrats 2 independents, one of which could conceivably turn in that time period). Here's the estimation for 2012:

 

(Held by Democrats)

 

(Likely competitive)

 

• Tester (Montana)
• McCaskill (Missouri)
• Webb (Virginia)
• Byrd (West Virginia) *assumes retirement*

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Casey (Pennsylvania)
• Brown (Ohio)
• Klobuchar (Minnesota)
• Akaka (Hawaii)
• Cardin (Maryland)
• Kennedy (Massachusetts) *assumes retirement*
• Bingaman (New Mexico)

(Held by Republicans)

(Likely competitive)

 

• N/A (subject to change due to open seats)

(Unlikely competitive [barring retirement or strong challenger])

 

• Corker (Tennessee)
• Kyl (Arizona)

This is the consequences of winning this many seats in a year that, quite frankly, by the numbers should have favored Republicans in the Senate. 2012 will be a miserable year for us in the Senate, there is no way around that fact, but if we take appropriate measures now, we can have build a large enough buffer that we can not only retain the senate, but we can keep a working majority of at least 55 seats after the Senate elections.

[First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Does it seem like there’s a new Republican scandal in the news every single week?  Well, that may be because there is.

That seems like an awful lot of corruption, scandal, hypocrisy, impropriety, and jail-worthy crime, huh?  A lot of corruption.  One might say an entire Culture of Corruption.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far.  Keep in mind that we’re approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period.  (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.)  So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?

(Much more below the fold.)

Colorado: New CO-GOP chief Dick Wadhams muscled the more moderate Scott McInnis out to make room for his good pal conservative “Backwards” Bob Schaffer, who will, barring any unforeseen events, be the Republican nominee for Senate.  Schaffer then proceeded to have a stammering start to his campaign, embarrassing himself right from the start, before hiring a bunch of electoral losers to staff his campaign.  Never mind that Democratic Congressman Mark Udall has a significant advantage in fundraising and a big head start in reaching out to voters.  I suppose we could credit the GOP with an accomplishment for finding a living, breathing human being who has held office before and ostensibly has a base of support to run.  But, with Colorado’s trending blue over the last few years, muscling out the more moderate choice for the more conservative one might not have been the best play.

Arkansas: Since Republican former Governor and current Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, arguably the only Republican to give Senator Mark Pryor a real challenge, ruled out a Senate bid, it also came out that Pryor saw better Q1 fundraising for his Senate re-election than Huckabee saw for his Presidential bid.  So no Arkansas Republicans seem to be stepping up to the plate at present.  Meanwhile, the new Chair of the AR-GOP, who should be out looking for challengers to Pryor, is instead getting himself in trouble with comments like “I think all we need is some attacks on American soil.”  In a nutshell, as it stands now in Arkansas, the Green Party is doing better than the Republican Party when it comes to Senate recruitment.

Delaware: Nothing new then; nothing new now.  Still zip from the DE-GOP.

Illinois: The NRSC met with wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg.  He however turned down their entreaties and is considering a House bid, leaving political unknown Steve Sauerberg as the sole announced Republican candidate.  Having lost one potential self-funder in Greenberg, expect the GOP to seek out another potential self-funder before writing off the seat and settling for token opposition.

Iowa: While Senator Harkin had a strong Q1, GOP Rep. Tom Latham barely raised a solid amount by House standards, much less Senate standards; and GOP Rep. Steve King raised next to nothing, with a scant amount for cash-on-hand.  It’s getting safer to assume that Harkin won’t have a strong opponent.  The Iowa Republican Senate primary could wind up being between businessman Steve Rathje, businessman Troy Cook, and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Um, yeah.

Louisiana: Here’s the summary that I penned for Daily Kingfish a little less than a month ago:

Bobby Jindal is running for Governor.  GOP Congressmen Charles Boustany and Jim McCrery have both taken their names out of the running.  GOP Congressman Richard Baker has a whopping $66,000 cash-on-hand.  And Jay Dardenne, who is already polling significantly behind the “vulnerable” [Senator Mary] Landrieu, is embarrassing himself.  In fact, the only Republicans who have demonstrated any interest are Woody Jenkins and Suzanne Haik Terrell, the two Republicans Landrieu has already defeated.

Since this summary, the only development has been Karl Rove trying to get the Democratic state Treasurer to switch Parties to run against Landrieu.  I suppose that even Rove doubts there are any strong Republican challengers.  The LA-GOP and NRSC really don’t have much to show for all of Landrieu’s supposed vulnerability.

Massachusetts: A token opponent has stepped forward:

Jeff Beatty, who took less than 30% of the vote in a 2006 Congressional race and raised less than $50,000.  The Congressional district Beatty ran in was the most favorable to Bush and least favorable to Kerry in 2004 of any of Massachusetts’ ten Congressional districts; so, if Beatty couldn’t crack 30% or manage any significant fundraising in that district, it’s unlikely that he’d be able to accomplish anything further statewide.

It’s not like the MA-GOP doesn’t have access to some known quantities: Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, Kerry Healey, Andrew Card, Curt Schilling.  But they’ll settle, for now, for Jeff Beatty.

Michigan: To plagiarize from the Delaware entry above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

Montana: Only two Republicans have been suggested as having the capability to give popular Senator Max Baucus a challenge: former Governor Mark Racicot, who has been silent; and, GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who CQPolitics characterized as “resisting GOP efforts to draft him into the race.”  The CQPolitics article also notes that former Montana House Republican leader Michael Lange was considered a possibility until his obscene tirade against Governor Brian Schweitzer.  For now, it’s all quiet on the Western front.

New Jersey: With known quantities like Christie Todd Whitman, Chris Christie, and members of the Kean family sitting out, it looks like there is an NJ-GOP Senate primary brewing between conservative assemblyman Michael Doherty and less-conservative real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook.  Estabrook has the support of GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson, Kean family ties, and sizable personal wealth.  Doherty also has the support of several notable New Jersey Republicans, as well as the apparent backing of NJ’s conservative mouthpieces.  While Senator Frank Lautenberg should handily dispatch either, Estabrook’s personal wealth and more moderate positions (at least compared with Doherty) would likely make her the less easily-beatable opponent.

Rhode Island: To plagiarize from the Michigan and Delaware entries above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

South Dakota: With Senator Tim Johnson’s recovery moving along steadily, South Dakota Republicans are beginning to step up to the plate.  Two have indicated interest in a run: state representative Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart.  With Tim Johnson’s existing popularity coupled with sympathy from his impressive recovery, it is doubtful that either of these challengers would be formidable, while far-right conservative Gov. Mike Rounds remains mum on possible Senate plans.

West Virginia: About a month ago, I summed up the situation in West Virginia:

With Shelley Moore Capito taking a pass on a Senate bid, Republicans are now looking to GOP Secretary of State Betty Ireland and multiple-time-loser John Raese to take on popular Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller.  In 2004, Ireland squeaked to a 52-48 victory; and, in 2006, Raese lost to Senator Robert Byrd by a 64-34 thrashing.  Not exactly rainmakers on the WV-GOP bench.

Nothing has changed since that point.

So, among the thirteen seats discussed here, ten states (Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia) currently offer no Republican opposition or only token opposition.  Two states (New Jersey and South Dakota) see Republican opposition in the more-than-token but less-than-strong range.  And one state (open seat Colorado) sees a Republican contender, though the race still favors the Democrat and is the likeliest of seats up for election in 2008 to switch control (from GOP to Democrat).  With the dog days of summer ahead, the NRSC just doesn’t seem too concerned with candidate recruitment.

There is every reason to believe tonight that even after tomorrow, the Republican bloodletting will not stop in Ketucky. A movement has begun to draft Larry Forgy to run against Mitch McConnell. According to Politcs1:

Call it Ernie Fletcher’s revenge. US Senate Mitch McConnell (R-KY), portrayed in state newspapers as the godfather of the Kentucky GOP, has his faction of the party heavily backing Anne Northup in Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary. That appears to be why a growing movement in the party — led by the pro-Fletcher faction — is looking for payback in the form of giving McConnell a tough primary challenge in 2008. Check out the DraftForgy.com website, urging former State Supreme Court Justice Larry Forgy (R) to oppose McConnell. Forgy was the GOP nominee for Governor in 1991 and 1995. The Draft Forgy website is filled with pro-Fletcher and ani-McConnell sentiments, plus lots of Forgy quotes that make him sound rather interested in the race.

Pass the popcorn!

[Originally posted yesterday on my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update.  Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.

Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle.  With only Colorado’s Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.

(See below for the full update.)

UP Virginia’s John Warner: Most notably, the five-term incumbent raised a mere $500 in the first quarter of 2007.  This is a gigantic red flag.  Further, Warner just today announced the departure of his Chief of Staff to the private sector.  He has continually suggested that he is still unsure of his future electoral plans, but it just takes too much effort for a longtime incumbent Senator to raise next-to-nothing for a quarter.  Barring an unexpected fundraising surge in Q2, a retirement announcement is quite likely.

UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Domenici has not been vocal about a re-election bid, particularly considering his involvement in the Attorney Purge scandal.  Two factors suggest a hightened likelihood of retirement here.  First, since Domenici’s involvement in the scandal has come to light, his approval rating (previously comfortably in the mid-to-high 60’s) has been in a consistent and unabated free fall, plunging from a 43-point net approval in November 2006 to a 16-point net approval last month.  Next month’s polling data will offer further insight into the momentum of the trend.  Second, Domenici had a lackluster fundraising quarter for a longtime incumbent facing a potentially tough re-election bid.  Even the Republican netroots are suggesting that Domenici ought to consider retirement.  While there is no end in sight for Domenici’s continued negative press coverage and while his approvals continue to sink, his retirement may ultimately hinge on whether the Democrats field a strong opponent, and soon.

UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Craig delayed his 2008 electoral plan announcement from “this summer” to “late summer or fall.”  Also, regardless of how inexpensive the Idaho media market is, by any measure Craig had a very weak Q1 fundraising take, suggesting that his heart isn’t in a re-election bid.  It also doesn’t help perceptions that GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is chomping at the bit for Craig to retire so that he can enter the race.

EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Fundraising has been the biggest signal that Cochran may in fact run for another term, as he nearly met his fundraising goal for the first quarter of 2007 while his likely understudy, GOP Rep. Chip Pickering, raised only a meager sum in Q1.  However, two subtle hints suggest a Cochran retirement is more likely than some may suspect.  First, Karl Rove’s presentation on the Senate’s “Republican Defense” states included Mississippi, likely to only be competitive if Cochran retired.  Did Rove have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?  Second, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania suggested that he would be the senior Republican Senator on the Appropriations Committee in 2010, despite Cochran’s committee seniority.  Did Specter have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?

EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Since Hagel’s notorious non-announcement, he has suggested that he is ramping up his fundraising to prepare for a Senate re-election bid.  But state Attorney General Jon Bruning has demonstrated early strength in a possible NE-GOP Senate primary.  And Hagel’s approval-disapproval has seen better days.  Meanwhile, Hagel’s own comments as well as his time spent with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has fueled speculation of an independent Presidential bid.

EVEN Utah’s Orrin Hatch: Yes, Utah’s Orrin Hatch.  Documented rumors have suggested that Hatch has been “campaigning” in a sense for the position of U.S. Attorney General should Alberto Gonzales resign, be fired, or otherwise lose the position.  An unknown, to be sure, but something to keep an eye on.

DOWN Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Alexander declared in early April that he “plans to run for re-election in 2008.”

DOWN Alaska’s Ted Stevens: While Stevens’ advanced age will perpetually keep him on the Retirement Watch radar, the fact that he has just recently taken lengths to distance himself from his son’s involvement in a corruption scandal rather than defend his son suggests that he’s still most interested in politically protecting himself, suggesting that he plans on making good on his threat to run for re-election.

With the dust settling, the Retirement Watch breakdown currently stands at:

Definitely retiring: Wayne Allard (CO)

On Retirement Watch: Thad Cochran (MS), Larry Craig (ID), Pete Domenici (NM), Chuck Hagel (NE), Jim Inhofe (OK), John Warner (VA)

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Lamar Alexander (TN), Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Susan Collins (ME), John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), Ted Stevens (AK), John Sununu (NH)

[Cross posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Let’s revisit candidate filing for the 2006 cycle.  At this point in the 2006 cycle (i.e. April 1, 2005), 9 of the 28 listed Senate non-incumbent challengers had filed, or just about one-third.  At this point, the Republicans had seen Bob Corker, Mark Kennedy, and Tom Kean Jr. file.  The Democrats saw Amy Klobuchar, Bob Casey, and Sheldon Whitehouse file.  In other words, while there is lots of time left to recruit candidates and to see strong challengers file, both parties should have a couple promising candidates to point to at this point.

The Democrats, right now, can point to Mark Udall well-situated in Colorado for a pick-up.  In New Hampshire, Sprintin’ John Sununu lost in a hypothetical match-up to former Governor Jeanne Shaheen by 10 points, suggesting that she is the #1 potential recruit for the Democrats – though a spirited primary is underway with promising candidates.  In Minnesota, Al Franken went from being down 20 points in mid-February, right after announcing, to being only down 10 points a month later.  Mid-April polling will give us a fuller indication of the direction of this possible trend.  Additionally, strong candidates are considering races in Alabama, Maine, and Nebraska.  There is clearly still much work to be done as the year goes in, particularly in states like Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia if Democrats are to take full advantage of the political opportunities before them.

And how are the NRSC and the Republicans doing?  Well, not so good.  There are twelve Democratic incumbents and one open seat.  Let’s run through all thirteen potential battlegrounds, starting with the open seat.

Colorado (open seat): The CO-GOP just saw their top candidate back out of the race and back-ups like state AG Suthers have some conservatives less than enthused.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Arkansas (Senator Mark Pryor): Just yesterday, it was reported that former Governor and Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, perhaps the only candidate that a weakened AR-GOP could put up to make the race competitive, has ruled out a Senate challenge.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Delaware (Senator Joe Biden): GOP Rep. Mike Castle is perhaps the only Republican who could offer even a somewhat challenging race against Biden, but he seems to have indicated, for yet another cycle, that he isn’t interested.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Illinois (Senator Richard Durbin): The IL-GOP is reduced to begging wealthy conservatives to martyr themselves in a self-funded campaign to prevent Durbin from having a total cake-walk re-election.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Iowa (Senator Tom Harkin): Right now, the IA-GOP Senate primary consists of two token candidates in tongue-tied conservative Steve Rathje and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Iowa’s several flawed Republican Congresspeople and former Congresspeople are all still biding their time.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Louisiana (Senator Mary Landrieu): Senator Landrieu is supposed to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.  Then how come nobody has stepped up to her yet?  Bobby Jindal seems to be the state’s most popular Republican.  But he is running for Governor, not Senate.  And against a statewide GOP officeholder and potential opponent, LA Sec. of State Jay Dardenne, Landrieu vastly exceeds expectations, winning 53-38, as some Republican Congresspeople take their names out of the running.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Massachusetts (Senator John Kerry): There are two legitimate challengers (Harvard-Pilgrim CEO Charles Baker and former Governor Paul Cellucci) and one “spectacle” challenger (Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling) that could make a race against Senator Kerry.  Baker and Schilling have taken their names out of the running and Cellucci has indicated no interest, particularly in endorsing Rudy Guiliani for President over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  The rest of the MA-GOP is fairly irrelevant-to-nonexistant right now.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Michigan (Senator Carl Levin): There hasn’t been a single substantial peep of noise from the MI-GOP regarding a Senate challenger; and speculation rests primarily (if not only) on the wives of former Michigan politicians.  In the words of police officers everywhere, “Nothing to see here, folks.”  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Montana (Senator Max Baucus): Despite the redness of Montana in Presidential races, the MT-Dems have had major successes including the races of Governor Brian Schweitzer and Senator Jon Tester, as well as significant shifts in the Montana state Legislature.  Also, Baucus is extremely popular in Montana.  The only candidate who could even give Baucus a challenge is GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who the NRSC must be courting like crazy, only to get zero sustained interest so far.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

New Jersey (Senator Frank Lautenberg): I expected the NJ-GOP to kick this potential race into gear early, but we’ve heard practically nothing from them.  Lautenberg’s relatively low approvals aren’t as big of a concern as they’d be in another state, as NJ-Dems can get (re-)elected with low approvals (see: 2006’s Menendez v. Kean Jr.).  And the NJ-GOP’s strongest potential candidate, U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, has taken himself out of the running, leaving, at best, a B-team for the NJ-GOP and NRSC to look at.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Rhode Island (Senator Jack Reed): The RI-GOP has been even quieter than the MI-GOP.  In 2006, moderate-to-liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee got bounced primarily for having an R next to his name.  Reed is very popular and the RI-GOP bench is slim.  Again, “Nothing to see here.”  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

South Dakota (Senator Tim Johnson): Senator Johnson is extremely popular and recovering from a serious health malady.  It is unclear how the SD-GOP will approach this race.  A political attack on Johnson while he is recovering could seriously backfire.  Meanwhile, it is unclear if Johnson will run for re-election or not, though indications are that he will, barring a health setback.  Had ultra-conservative Governor Mike Rounds gotten in the race early, he might have stood a chance, but now the SD-GOP and NRSC have to sit on their hands and wait.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

West Virginia (Senator Jay Rockefeller): The WV-GOP has been almost as quiet as the MI-GOP and RI-GOP.  At most, they have rumors, but not a single WV Republican has stepped forward, as they wait to see if GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wants to take a shot.  As Capito and other WV Republicans expect this term to be Senator Robert Byrd’s last, they’ll likely wait out that seat for an open race than challenge Rockefeller.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

So there you go.  The Democrats certainly have some recruiting work to do in some key states, but they have also seen some early success with the ball rolling in other states.  Meanwhile, the NRSC is objectively a resounding 0-for-13 so far in challenges to open seats and Democratic-held seats.

The following is a diary Mike Stagg, who ran for the House in LA-07 last November, posted at MyDD on Friday, only to have it pushed aside by all the Presidential diaries.  After we lost one LA State House seat last weekend, I believe we should try to support Langhoff, whether it be through volunteering, contributing or blogging.  Here is Mike’s dairy, and I will try to write more at another time.  Although Mike works with the Langhoff campaign, I do not; I just support her candidacy. 

Deborah Langhoff, you may recall from my other diaries, is a Democrat running for a seat recently vacated by a Republican.  Because Republicans plan on sweeping all statewide and legislative offices this year, we really need to win this seat.  Langhoff’s main Republican opponent in the open primary is Jeb Bruneau, the son of Republican Peppi Bruneau, who evacuated this seat on short notice in order to create a short special election cycle to the benefit of his son.  Langhoff is a grassroots organizer who has the chance to win this seat, and I ask everyone to support her and her really promising campaign.

Anyone interested in seeing the Republican game plan for 2007 unveiled should keep their eye on the special election in House District 94 where Democrat Deborah Langhoff has emerged as a threat to win the seat.

Langhoff, who has won endorsements from the Greater New Orleans AFL-CIO and the New Orleans Coalition, has been warned in recent days that she is about to become the subject of a smear campaign. How did she learn of this? From Republicans (including at least one candidate) who wanted her to know that they “had nothing to do” with what is, allegedly about to happen.

Element One of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Crank Up the Slime Machine! No doubt money from the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority is not far removed from this effort.

Then, today, Jeb Bruneau — the designated heir apparent for whose benefit this special election was engineered (thanks to his daddy’s resignation from the seat) rolled out a mailer touting an endorsement from the leading Republican candidate for governor — Bobby Jindal. Poor Jeb! Bobby’s probably telling him how to run his campaign now! 😉

The mailer looks more like a Jindal piece than a Bruneau piece. No 
doubt Jindal approved it.

Element Two of the 2007 GOP Game Plan: Create an air of inevitability. This, actually, is out of the Karl Rove playbook. Work the media, tout your internal poll numbers (that you won’t let anyone see) or the numbers of a friendly pollster who will skew things your way. Try to depress voter turnout among Democrats by creating a defeatist attitude.

But, the Langhoff campaign is going to unveil a Democratic template of its own. It’s called Fighting Back!

If/when the smear comes, Deborah and her team will come out fighting, slamming the Republican slime machine, calling them out on their cynicism, their reliance on manipulation of process and people in a deceitful effort to retain/gain power at all costs.

Deborah needs your help NOW! There are nine days until the primary. 

The wheels are coming off the Bruneau campaign. The Alliance for Good Government, of which Jeb Bruneau is a member, endorsed another candidate. Deborah’s direct mail campaign has slammed the blatant manipulation of the election process by Peppi Bruneau with the intent of benefitting Jeb — and people are responding. Why are they responding? Because they recognize the attempted manipulation and Deborah has had the courage to call the Bruneaus on it.

As you know, Republicans have targeted at least 37 House seats currently held by Democrats for Republican takeover this fall. They don’t believe they have a single vulnerable seat.

Democrats have a chance to take that seat through Deborah Langhoff’s inspiring campaign.

We can knock their alleged juggernaut off the tracks before it even gets rolling — IF YOU WILL HELP DEBORAH’S CAMPAIGN!!!

Go here: Deborah Langhoff’s website

Make a contribution — even if you don’t live in the district. If you live in or near the district, make a contribution and get involved directly in the campaign. Volunteer to phone bank or walk neighborhoods.

Republicans have big plans for Louisiana that start in 2008. As John Lennon said: “Life is what happens while you’re busy making plans.” Victories are won that way, too. We can upset those GOP plans by working together in 2007.

Help Deborah Langhoff resist the Swiftboating of her campaign! It’s a preview of what Democrats across this state are going to face this fall.

Help fight it NOW!!!

[Cross-posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

As we look at the 2008 Senate map, and where we have pick-up opportunities, there are some obvious choices for who would be our best candidate, and there are some not so obvious choices.

From Sebelius in Kansas to Allen in Maine to Easley in North Carolina to a number of choices in New Hampshire to fewer choices in Idaho, there is much to discuss.

Who is your ideal 2008 Senate candidate? Who would you like to see run?

More below the fold.

SEEMS OBVIOUS

Colorado (Wayne Allard) – U.S. Rep. Mark Udall: he’s all-but-in, so no need for the hard sell, and he’s the frontrunner with momentum while the CO-GOP is looking to a potentially nasty primary

Kansas (Pat Roberts) – Governor Kathleen Sebelius: enjoys a 67-29 approval-disapproval as Governor

Maine (Susan Collins) – U.S. Rep. Tom Allen: one of only two ME Congressmen, he is routinely re-elected with 60+% of the vote

Mississippi (Thad Cochran) – Former state Attorney General Mike Moore: the most popular Democrat in Mississippi

Nebraska (Chuck Hagel) – Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey: a bright star on a relatively shallow bench

North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) – Governor Mike Easley: already beating Elizabeth Dole in polling

Virginia (John Warner) – Former Governor Mark Warner: left the Governor’s office with an 80+% approval rating

SEEMS FAIRLY OBVIOUS

Alaska (Ted Stevens) – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich: With Tony Knowles’ electoral results statewide dropping from ’98 to ’04 to ’06, it seems that Begich’s star is the fasting rising among AK-Dems

Oregon (Gordon Smith) – U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer: a popular Democrat re-elected with larger totals each successive election, he seems to be politically preparing for a statewide bid

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander) – Governor Phil Bredesen: enjoys a monstrous 73-24 approval rating, while Lamar is at 53-36

Wyoming (Mike Enzi) – Governor Dave Freudenthal/Former Congressional candidate Gary Trauner: pretty much the only two high profile Democrats in the state at the moment; Freudenthal enjoys a mammoth 77-19 approval, but has indicated no interest in the race; Trauner came within about 1,000 votes of winning the At-Large Congressional seat in 2006

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (deep benches) – who would you prefer?

Minnesota (Norm Coleman) – do we choose the high-profile satirist, the millionaire public interest attorney, or well-known legislators?

New Hampshire (John Sununu) – do we choose the popular, young Mayor, the prominent activist, the progressive businessman, or the medical professor/former astronaut? An embarrassment of riches that not only should scare Sununu but also Gregg in ’10

New Mexico (Pete Domenici) – several prominent Congresspeople and current and former statewide elected officials – just waiting on Domenici to make a retire or run for re-elect decision

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (slimmer or quieter benches) – who are your picks?
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Idaho (Larry Craig)
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Texas (John Cornyn)