Author: senate2008guru

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A Democrat hasn’t represented Kansas in the U.S. Senate since the 1930’s.  There is no way a Democrat could win a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas in 2008!

Wrong.

Kansas could very well be the sleeper competitive Senate race of 2008.  Why?  Several reasons.

1) Unintimidating Approval Numbers: Look at Pat Roberts’ approval rating over the last year, according to Survey USA.

6/19/07: 51-37
5/24/07: 52-36
4/25/07: 48-39
3/20/07: 50-36
2/22/07: 49-37
1/24/07: 52-35
12/20/06: 52-36
11/22/06: 51-36
10/15/06: 47-42
9/20/06: 53-37
8/15/06: 48-39

Since August ’06, Roberts’ average approve-disapprove has been 50.3-37.3.  These are not the intimidating approval numbers of an unbeatable incumbent.  If a Senator from a traditional Presidential swing state had approval numbers like these, that Senator would be a top-tier target.  But, just because this is Kansas and not Ohio doesn’t mean as much as you’d think (as you’ll see in point number three).

Much more below the fold.

2) Roberts Oversaw Intelligence Scandals: From 2003 until the Democrats’ reclaiming of the Senate Majority, Pat Roberts served as Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.  During his tenure as Chairman, Roberts’ oversight was so lax that the committee was dubbed “the Senate Cover-up Committee.”  Roberts rolled over for the unpopular Bush administration on numerous intelligence issues including warrantless domestic spying and wiretapping, Iraq oversight, leaking classified information, and allowing torture.  I doubt that law-abiding Kansas families would be too thrilled with the fact that Pat Roberts supports Bush’s ability to warrantlessly spy on them.

3) Kansas Growing More Democratic-Friendly: A few indicators suggest that Kansas is growing more and more comfortable voting Democratic.  First, compare the approval ratings of a couple of chief executives.  George W. Bush’s approve-disapprove in Kansas stands at a shocking 38-60.  Bush’s approval in Kansas is so low that Pat Roberts himself has begun to qualify his support of Bush’s Iraq War.  Meanwhile, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who was re-elected last year by a 58-40 margin, has an approve-disapprove that stands at 65-31.  The Democratic chief executive is considerably more popular than the Republican chief executive.  Beyond that, ten years ago, all four of Kansas’ U.S. House seats were held by Republicans.  Now, the breakdown is two Republicans, two Democrats, highlighted by Nancy Boyda’s stunning victory in 2006.  Between Bush’s unpopularity, Sebelius’ popularity, and the overall Congressional shift, Kansans are clearly more comfortable voting (D).

4) Lack of Support from National Republicans: With 22 Republican-held seats (including recent Wyoming appointee John Barrasso) to defend, compared with 12 Democratic seats, the NRSC will have its hands full.  Couple those numbers with the fact that the DSCC is trouncing the NRSC in fundraising, raising money at a pace double that of the NRSC.  With the NRSC worried about defending first-tier battlegrounds like Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon, and Colorado, they probably won’t have much money left over to send in to Kansas to help Pat Roberts out.

5) The KS-GOP Mess: The Kansas Republican Party has seen better days.  The KS-GOP is apparently near bankruptcy.  The KS-GOP is getting sued over a labor dispute.  And, following a spate of high profile Republicans in Kansas changing their voter affiliation to Democrat (including current statewide officeholders and a former KS-GOP Chair!), the KS-GOP has cooked up a rather creepy Unity Pledge.  The KS-GOP is in bad shape.

The above five reasons outline why Pat Roberts can be deemed quite vulnerable in 2008.  So, who is there to challenge him?

Last month, I outlined a dozen prominent Kansas Democrats.  Of course, there are Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Congresspeople Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda, though Governor Sebelius has expressed no interest and both Congresspeople are expected to run for re-election to the House.

There are also four Republicans-turned-Democrat on the list: first-term Lt. Gov. (and former KS-GOP Chair) Mark Parkinson, first-term state Attorney General Paul Morrison, former Kansas House Majority Leader Joe Hoagland, and former Lt. Gov. John Moore.  As freshmen in their current roles, Parkinson and Morrison are expected to stand pat and accrue more experience before an attempt at another office.  Hoagland and Moore both remain interesting options; in fact, Hoagland considered a challenge to Sam Brownback in 2004.

Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and former Kansas Congressperson Dan Glickman seems too comfortable at his current job as President of the Motion Picture Association of America to attempt a run; and, while I have heard rumors of interest from political activist, military veteran and Congressional spouse Steve Boyda, he may have his hands too full assisting Nancy in her re-election bid to undertake a statewide run of his own.

The three remaining names are: state Secretary of Revenue Joan Wagnon, whose resume is quite impressive; 2004 Senate candidate Joan Ruff, whose ’04 campaign seemed to gain a lot of traction only to have her inexplicably withdraw her bid shortly before the primary; and, 1996 Senate candidate Jill Docking, a businesswoman who is also the daughter-in-law of former Kansas Governor Robert Docking.

Should Governor Sebelius, of course the dream candidate, definitively insist against a Senate bid, I’d offer that the two most interesting names that the DSCC could pursue are state Secretary of Revenue Joan Wagnon and former Kansas House Majority Leader and Republican-turned-Democrat Joe Hoagland.  Regardless of who is pursued, it is inarguable that Pat Roberts is vulnerable to a strong challenger.  I hope that the KS-Dems work hard to propel a challenger forward and that the DSCC does not overlook Kansas as a potential Senate battleground.

(If you’ve got any other Q2 numbers, post them in the comments. – promoted by James L.)

[Originally posted today at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Q2 Fundraising: Second quarter fundraising figures are beginning to trickle in.  The Hill reports: Thad Cochran (R-MS) dropped to $275,000; Katrina Swett (D-NH) raised “about” $700,000; Jon Bruning (R-NE) took in over $720,000; Mike Ciresi (D-MN) raised over $735,000; Steve Marchand (D-NH) brought in about $100,000; Steve Novick (D-OR) took in $190,000; and, recovering Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) neared a goal of $600,000.  UNO Dems reminds us that “Bob Kerrey’s still got about $400,000 cash on hand from his old Senate campaign account.”  Norm Coleman (R-MN) raised around $1.5 million.  Larry LaRocco (D-ID) raised about $80,000.

Also: John Warner prepares us for another notoriously low fundraising quarter.  (Retirement announcement on the way?)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

2008 could be a record year for unexpected Republican primaries. Whether or not strong contenders emerge, Republican primaries are, of course, expected in states from South Dakota to New Jersey, states with Democratic Senate incumbents but a handful (or more) of ambitious Republicans itching to take their shots. And, of course, there will be notable Democratic primaries ranging from Minnesota to Georgia. But the number of unexpected potential Republican primaries for Senate in 2008 is running high.

There are a number of reasons for this. One reason, illustrated more clearly in the Republican Presidential primary, is general discontent by Republican voters of Republican candidates and officials.  Another reason is that Republicans are particularly divided over the issue of immigration reform. Another reason could be that, in many races, the incumbent Republican simply isn’t conservative enough for the base.  Though several of these states with unexpected potential Republican primaries are traditionally red states, the emergence of a viable Democratic challenger in many of these states makes the possibility of a primary all the more daunting for Republicans.

(Much more below the fold.)

Lack of Leadership

Kentucky: Many elements of the conservative base are growingly unhappy with Mitch McConnell’s helming of Senate Republicans, and none have been more vocal than the conservative blogosphere across the country, many of whom have focused on their discontent with McConnell’s support for Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform attempts.  Further, in Kentucky, 1995 GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a loyalist to corrupt incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, has hinted that he would consider or support a primary challenge to McConnell if he felt McConnell did not do enough to help Fletcher’s embattled re-election bid.  While McConnell enjoys a hefty bankroll, the power of his political machine has diminished as demonstrated by Anne Northup’s gubernatorial primary defeat to Ernie Fletcher.  If a Republican primary challenger sapped significant resources of McConnell’s, he could find himself very vulnerable to a viable Democrat, say either 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen or state Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

Immigration Reform

South Carolina: Primarily driven by anger over Lindsey Graham’s support for immigration reform, the South Carolina conservative netroots have begun voicing their displeasure with Graham and desire for a primary challenger.  Dump Lindsey.org and Dump Lindsey Graham express South Carolina conservatives’ preference for a replacement for Graham.  As Hotline’s Blogometer reported:

A new project launched by conservative bloggers promises a primary challenge for any GOP Senator who votes for the [immigration reform] proposal. The most prominent in that field? None other than McCain supporter Lindsay Graham (R-SC). So far, there have been rumblings of a primary challenge for Graham but no candidate yet. If the revived immigration plan comes up to a vote, will Graham’s yea or ney be the triggering mechanism?

This project is called The Payback Project and it seems to have successfully spooked Saxby Chambliss of Georgia into distancing himself from the immigration reform legislation.  If Graham continues his support for the immigration reform legislation, expect talk of a primary to intensify.  After that, Democrats still need to come through with a viable Senate candidate.

Not “Conservative” Enough

Oregon: For more than a decade, Gordon Smith has been Oregon’s only statewide Republican.  He has achieved this by presenting himself as a moderate who can voice Oregon’s concerns to the Republican leadership in the White House and Congress.  But with the Republican brand inreasingly tarnished, and with Smith’s back-and-forth on Iraq demonstrating his lack of integrity, he is coming off as too far to the right for Oregon moderates but also too fiscally irresponsible for conservatives.  As such, 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore has hinted that he would consider a primary challenge to Smith.  While Democrats have had a difficult time recruiting a top-tier challenger for Smith, the job would be considerably easier if a Republican primary challenger pulled Smith to the right and sapped significant resources.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman finds himself in a similar situation to Gordon Smith, having to maintain moderate credibility to ensure a necessary breadth of support.  Minnesota will have no shortage of Democratic candidates itching to take Coleman on, be it a famous satirist, an attorney who slew Big Tobacco, a Nobel Laureate, and so on.  It would help the eventual Democratic nominee if Coleman was pulled to the right and had resources sapped by a primary challenger.  Enter Joe Repya, a military veteran and former advisor to Coleman who is considering entering the race.  Despite Repya’s ideological position to the right of the GOP, his apparent sincerity and straightforwardness would offer a damaging foil for the political opportunist Coleman and severely weaken his character before entering the general election, if he wins the primary, that is.

Retirements

Colorado: Senator Wayne Allard has retired and former Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for 2008.  But enough rumblings keep occuring suggesting that a bloc of the CO-GOP is not convinced Schaffer is a viable candidate against Democratic Congressman Mark Udall.  As such, we could still see a CO-GOP primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee worse for the wear.

Nebraska: There will be a Republican primary in Nebraska.  The only question is whether or not Chuck Hagel will be involved.  If he is, Hagel will likely still see opposition from state Attorney General Jon Bruning, whose campaign has highlighted Hagel’s lack of support for the Bush administration on Iraq, and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub.  If Hagel does not run for re-election, expect those two candidates plus businessman Tony Raimondo and who knows how many others might consider a bid for an open seat.  This would not be as notable a scenario if it wasn’t for the fact that two prominent Nebraska Democrats were considering Senate bids: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey.  As it seems unlikely that there would be a Democratic primary, whichever Democrat steps up will be at full strength to await a battle-bruised, resource-diminished Republican.

Idaho: If Larry Craig doesn’t retire, than this paragraph is moot.  However, if I had to make a wager, I’d bet on a Craig retirement.  Should Craig retire, Idaho’s GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has been drooling to enter the Senate race and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson has at times expressed interest.  While Idaho is just about as red a state as there is, the ID-Dems have put up their strongest Senate candidate in years in former Congressman Larry LaRocco.  Should Craig retire and a rough Republican primary politically injury the eventual Republican nominee, Democrats would have their best opportunity in years for a Senate pickup here.

Ethics Problems

New Mexico: Pete Domenici’s role in the Attorney Purge scandal has been widely reported and its impact on Domenici’s approval rating has been observed.  With Domenici’s approval bottoming out, for the moment, around 50%, he is still awaiting the results of the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation.  Should findings or political fallout result in a Domenici retirement or resignation, we could very well see a Republican primary in New Mexico to replace Domenici.  Though far-right GOP Rep. Steve Pearce would be the frontrunner, a less far-right Republican might see an opening for a challenge.  Meanwhile, the prospect of an open seat could entice Democratic Congressman Tom Udall or another top-tier Democrat to enter the race.

Alaska: As Ted Stevens gets more deeply embroiled in FBI investigations surrounding renovations to his home and his relationship with the corrupt VECO Corporation, coupled with Stevens advanced age, declining poll numbers, and increased interest from Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Stevens could yet opt for retirement (if the FBI’s investigation doesn’t turn up something sooner that might force Stevens from the Senate), leaving Alaska wide open for a Republican Senate primary.

With the NRSC’s fundraising being well eclipsed by the DSCC, and with 21 Republican incumbents to protect compared with 12 Democrats, Republican Senate resources will be spread awfully thin in 2008.  The prospect of all these primaries, sapping already sparse resources, looms large over Republicans hoping to minimize losses in 2008 following a majority-losing 2006.

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far.  Keep in mind that we’re approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period.  (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.)  So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?

(Much more below the fold.)

Colorado: New CO-GOP chief Dick Wadhams muscled the more moderate Scott McInnis out to make room for his good pal conservative “Backwards” Bob Schaffer, who will, barring any unforeseen events, be the Republican nominee for Senate.  Schaffer then proceeded to have a stammering start to his campaign, embarrassing himself right from the start, before hiring a bunch of electoral losers to staff his campaign.  Never mind that Democratic Congressman Mark Udall has a significant advantage in fundraising and a big head start in reaching out to voters.  I suppose we could credit the GOP with an accomplishment for finding a living, breathing human being who has held office before and ostensibly has a base of support to run.  But, with Colorado’s trending blue over the last few years, muscling out the more moderate choice for the more conservative one might not have been the best play.

Arkansas: Since Republican former Governor and current Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, arguably the only Republican to give Senator Mark Pryor a real challenge, ruled out a Senate bid, it also came out that Pryor saw better Q1 fundraising for his Senate re-election than Huckabee saw for his Presidential bid.  So no Arkansas Republicans seem to be stepping up to the plate at present.  Meanwhile, the new Chair of the AR-GOP, who should be out looking for challengers to Pryor, is instead getting himself in trouble with comments like “I think all we need is some attacks on American soil.”  In a nutshell, as it stands now in Arkansas, the Green Party is doing better than the Republican Party when it comes to Senate recruitment.

Delaware: Nothing new then; nothing new now.  Still zip from the DE-GOP.

Illinois: The NRSC met with wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg.  He however turned down their entreaties and is considering a House bid, leaving political unknown Steve Sauerberg as the sole announced Republican candidate.  Having lost one potential self-funder in Greenberg, expect the GOP to seek out another potential self-funder before writing off the seat and settling for token opposition.

Iowa: While Senator Harkin had a strong Q1, GOP Rep. Tom Latham barely raised a solid amount by House standards, much less Senate standards; and GOP Rep. Steve King raised next to nothing, with a scant amount for cash-on-hand.  It’s getting safer to assume that Harkin won’t have a strong opponent.  The Iowa Republican Senate primary could wind up being between businessman Steve Rathje, businessman Troy Cook, and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Um, yeah.

Louisiana: Here’s the summary that I penned for Daily Kingfish a little less than a month ago:

Bobby Jindal is running for Governor.  GOP Congressmen Charles Boustany and Jim McCrery have both taken their names out of the running.  GOP Congressman Richard Baker has a whopping $66,000 cash-on-hand.  And Jay Dardenne, who is already polling significantly behind the “vulnerable” [Senator Mary] Landrieu, is embarrassing himself.  In fact, the only Republicans who have demonstrated any interest are Woody Jenkins and Suzanne Haik Terrell, the two Republicans Landrieu has already defeated.

Since this summary, the only development has been Karl Rove trying to get the Democratic state Treasurer to switch Parties to run against Landrieu.  I suppose that even Rove doubts there are any strong Republican challengers.  The LA-GOP and NRSC really don’t have much to show for all of Landrieu’s supposed vulnerability.

Massachusetts: A token opponent has stepped forward:

Jeff Beatty, who took less than 30% of the vote in a 2006 Congressional race and raised less than $50,000.  The Congressional district Beatty ran in was the most favorable to Bush and least favorable to Kerry in 2004 of any of Massachusetts’ ten Congressional districts; so, if Beatty couldn’t crack 30% or manage any significant fundraising in that district, it’s unlikely that he’d be able to accomplish anything further statewide.

It’s not like the MA-GOP doesn’t have access to some known quantities: Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, Kerry Healey, Andrew Card, Curt Schilling.  But they’ll settle, for now, for Jeff Beatty.

Michigan: To plagiarize from the Delaware entry above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

Montana: Only two Republicans have been suggested as having the capability to give popular Senator Max Baucus a challenge: former Governor Mark Racicot, who has been silent; and, GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who CQPolitics characterized as “resisting GOP efforts to draft him into the race.”  The CQPolitics article also notes that former Montana House Republican leader Michael Lange was considered a possibility until his obscene tirade against Governor Brian Schweitzer.  For now, it’s all quiet on the Western front.

New Jersey: With known quantities like Christie Todd Whitman, Chris Christie, and members of the Kean family sitting out, it looks like there is an NJ-GOP Senate primary brewing between conservative assemblyman Michael Doherty and less-conservative real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook.  Estabrook has the support of GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson, Kean family ties, and sizable personal wealth.  Doherty also has the support of several notable New Jersey Republicans, as well as the apparent backing of NJ’s conservative mouthpieces.  While Senator Frank Lautenberg should handily dispatch either, Estabrook’s personal wealth and more moderate positions (at least compared with Doherty) would likely make her the less easily-beatable opponent.

Rhode Island: To plagiarize from the Michigan and Delaware entries above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”

South Dakota: With Senator Tim Johnson’s recovery moving along steadily, South Dakota Republicans are beginning to step up to the plate.  Two have indicated interest in a run: state representative Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart.  With Tim Johnson’s existing popularity coupled with sympathy from his impressive recovery, it is doubtful that either of these challengers would be formidable, while far-right conservative Gov. Mike Rounds remains mum on possible Senate plans.

West Virginia: About a month ago, I summed up the situation in West Virginia:

With Shelley Moore Capito taking a pass on a Senate bid, Republicans are now looking to GOP Secretary of State Betty Ireland and multiple-time-loser John Raese to take on popular Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller.  In 2004, Ireland squeaked to a 52-48 victory; and, in 2006, Raese lost to Senator Robert Byrd by a 64-34 thrashing.  Not exactly rainmakers on the WV-GOP bench.

Nothing has changed since that point.

So, among the thirteen seats discussed here, ten states (Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia) currently offer no Republican opposition or only token opposition.  Two states (New Jersey and South Dakota) see Republican opposition in the more-than-token but less-than-strong range.  And one state (open seat Colorado) sees a Republican contender, though the race still favors the Democrat and is the likeliest of seats up for election in 2008 to switch control (from GOP to Democrat).  With the dog days of summer ahead, the NRSC just doesn’t seem too concerned with candidate recruitment.

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In the left-hand column of the Guru’s website, there is a list of “Democratic Senatorial Incumbents and Candidates” featuring Democratic incumbents, announced Democratic challengers for GOP-held seats, and Democrats considering bids for GOP-held seats.  Though there is still much time left to recruit challengers, there are seven states on the list featuring only “unknown” – in other words, there are seven states with Republican incumbent Senators where there are no Democrats even publicly considering a Senate bid, only rumors at best.  Let’s look at those seven states.

(Much more after the jump.)

Alaska: Given Ted Stevens’ advanced age (he’s 83), his penchant for flying off in a tizzy from time to time, and his proximity to scandal, Democrats ought to field someone credible just in case.  Much speculation has focused on Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who is term-limited out of office in 2009.  I think he should definitely run.  Best case scenario, he wins.  Worst case scenario, he loses but he increases his statewide profile for a 2010 challenge to Lisa Murkowski, who is significantly less popular than Stevens at a time when the Murkowski name isn’t worth what it used to be in Alaska.  (Her father, former Senator and now-former-Governor Frank Murkowski, had a dismal 19% showing in his 2006 primary bid for re-election after having taken heat for the nepotism associated with naming his daughter to his old Senate seat.)  If the DSCC offered him continued support in 2010 if he didn’t win 2008, he could go for it.  Otherwise, we ought to check with Alaska Democratic mainstay former Governor Tony Knowles or, perhaps more quixotically, former Senator and current Presidential candidate Mike Gravel to see if they wouldn’t mind having their name on the line just in case.  Race tracker wiki: AK-Sen

Georgia: The Peach State has arguably shifted more than any other state in the nation from Democratic- to Republican-trending over the last decade.  Right now, the only thing Democrats have resembling a candidate under the Democratic banner is self-proclaimed “conservative Democrat” and 2004 Bush voter Vernon Jones, the weak-fundraising CEO of DeKalb County.  Beyond that, some Democratic insiders have been urging Congressman Jim Marshall to consider a Senate bid, though Marshall may have a tough House re-election bid on his hands (could that motivate him to just jump into the Senate fray?).  Meanwhile state Attorney General Thurbert Baker has done nothing to quash speculation about Senate interest.  DKos diarists biglib (also now at Tondee’s Tavern), Mister Gloom, and VolvoDrivingLiberal offer thoughts on the GA-Dem bench – mostly just rumors, former candidates, or current office-holders that like where they are.  “Shameless” Saxby Chambliss is the Republican incumbent I would most like to see lose in 2008 as a result of his despicable 2002 campaign, so I hope the GA-Dems come up with something interesting.  I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: not a day goes by where I don’t hope that true American patriot and former Senator Max Cleland doesn’t reconsider a rematch of 2002.  (If you’ll forgive the triple-negative in the previous sentence, I just really want Cleland to get in the race and give Chambliss his comeuppance.)  Race tracker wiki: GA-Sen

Kansas: Pat Roberts’ approval hovers right around the 50% zone, but Kansas is still a red state.  The dream candidate remains popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who has expressed no interest in a 2008 Senate race and may be holding out for the 2008 Veepstakes.  With an approval in the 60-70% range and approval among Republicans over 50%, I’m confident she could beat Pat Roberts.  Kansas does enjoy other Democratic statewide elected officials, including Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson (a former KS-GOP Chair who switched parties to run with Sebelius) and state Attorney General Paul Morrison, as well as Democratic Congresspeople Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda (half of Kansas’ four-person House delegation), but none have indicated interest in a Senate bid.  It would be disappointing to see a potentially competitive race in the heartland fall by the wayside; and, as long as Roberts hovers around 50% approval, Kansas is potentially competitive.  Race tracker wiki: KS-Sen

Mississippi: There is a question as to whether or not incumbent Thad Cochran will run for re-election.  Despite the unusual signals that might suggest retirement, if I had to make a prediction right now, I would offer that Cochran would run for another term, given Cochran’s steady fundraising compared with the meager showing of Cochran understudy Chip Pickering.  The dream candidate in Mississippi would be former state Attorney General Mike Moore, but it has been suggested that Moore would only put the effort into a run if Cochran retired – the catch-22 being that Cochran might only retire if he faced a stiff challenge from someone like Moore.  Like Kansas, half of Mississippi’s four-person House delegation is Democratic, but there have been no rumblings.  Even yearnings for celebrity candidates like author (and former state legislator) John Grisham or actor Morgan Freeman have made the rounds.  But, so far, silence.  Race tracker wiki: MS-Sen

South Carolina: With a very lean SC-Dem bench, Lindsey Graham could be more likely to face a primary challenge from a Club for Growth-style right-winger unhappy with Graham’s maverick nature than a viable Democrat.  Nevertheless, every state should have a challenger.  The race tracker wiki only offers speculation on the SC-Dems’ 2004 Senate challenger, former State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, and former state Party Chair Joe Erwin.  Tenenbaum’s successor as Superintendent, Jim Rex, remains South Carolina’s only statewide elected Democrat (and barely, at that, with Rex taking 47.50% percent of the vote to the Republican’s 47.45% of the vote, winning by less than 500 votes in a race where the Green Party candidate took about 9,000 votes, while the Libertarian, Independence, and Constitution Party candidates combined for over 45,000 votes or over 4% of the total vote).  The Palmetto State’s six-person House delegation features two Democrats, both of whom have plum committee assignments in the new Democratic House majority that they probably would not want to part with.  A second-look at the 2006 state election results offer that the top vote-getting Democrat was not Jim Rex but rather Robert Barber, who narrowly lost his bid for the Lieutenant Governor’s office and who has a very interesting background.  If I were the DSCC, I’d give Mr. Barber a ring and find out if there was any interest.  Race tracker wiki: SC-Sen

Tennessee: Tennessee actually enjoys a fairly solid, intriguing bench of potential Senate candidates.  Still, pretty much nothing but silence.  Meanwhile, Lamar Alexander’s approval looms unintimidatingly in the low-50’s.  2006 Democratic TN-Sen nominee former Congressman Harold Ford Jr. has taken the reins of the DLC and seems to have backed off of speculation about a repeat bid in ’08.  Extremely popular Governor Phil Bredesen has not shown any interest in a Senate bid that he could very reasonably win.  Perhaps he, like Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, is waiting on the 2008 Veepstakes.  (Come to think of it, the “popular Democratic Governor uninterested in a very winnable Senate challenge against a lackluster Republican incumbent in favor of the ’08 Veepstakes” motif fits a few states, including Tennessee, Kansas, and North Carolina, and even Wyoming minus the Veepstakes angle.)  Ford’s 2006 primary opponent, state senator Rosalind Kurita, lost a lot of goodwill when she voted for the Republican Speaker of the Senate/Lt. Gov. over the Democratic incumbent.  Speculation has also surrounded Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell, former state Party Chair Bob Tuke, Tipper Gore, and musician & Bush critic Tim McGraw.  DKos diarist Sidof79 keeps regularly tabs on the potential candidates, offering a near-monthly update.  However, so far we have only heard speculation.  Race tracker wiki: TN-Sen

Wyoming: It frequently feels like there are only two Democrats who live in Wyoming: extremely popular Governor Dave Freudenthal, who has demonstrated no interest in a Senate bid; and Gary Trauner, who very narrowly lost his 2006 at-large House challenge to Barbara Cubin and looks like he may be opting for a rematch there.  If I were to gauge the landscape right now, I would deem Mike Enzi the safest Republican up for re-election in 2008 (and the most likely to get a free ride), unless Governor Freudenthal finds the desire to run for Senate.  Surely, somewhere in Wyoming is a Jon Tester/Scott Kleeb-style progressive, populist farmer/rancher.  Race tracker wiki: WY-Sen

Again, every state should find a challenger.  These seven states are not un-winnable.  In fact, most of these states have the potential to be highly competitive races.  Of the seven, three (Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming) have very popular Democratic Governors who could immediately make for top-tier races in their respective states.  Alaska has, in my mind, a clear choice to pursue in Mayor Begich, with the offer of continued support through 2010.  Mississippi sees a possible retirement in Cochran as well as another obvious preferred candidate in former AG Moore.  In Georgia, Chambliss’ approval also looms around the low-50’s; maybe if we ask for Senator Cleland politely enough he’ll change his mind and immediately turn Georgia into a highly competitive race.  South Carolina is tough, but there should be no free rides.

[Originally posted yesterday on my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update.  Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.

Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle.  With only Colorado’s Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.

(See below for the full update.)

UP Virginia’s John Warner: Most notably, the five-term incumbent raised a mere $500 in the first quarter of 2007.  This is a gigantic red flag.  Further, Warner just today announced the departure of his Chief of Staff to the private sector.  He has continually suggested that he is still unsure of his future electoral plans, but it just takes too much effort for a longtime incumbent Senator to raise next-to-nothing for a quarter.  Barring an unexpected fundraising surge in Q2, a retirement announcement is quite likely.

UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Domenici has not been vocal about a re-election bid, particularly considering his involvement in the Attorney Purge scandal.  Two factors suggest a hightened likelihood of retirement here.  First, since Domenici’s involvement in the scandal has come to light, his approval rating (previously comfortably in the mid-to-high 60’s) has been in a consistent and unabated free fall, plunging from a 43-point net approval in November 2006 to a 16-point net approval last month.  Next month’s polling data will offer further insight into the momentum of the trend.  Second, Domenici had a lackluster fundraising quarter for a longtime incumbent facing a potentially tough re-election bid.  Even the Republican netroots are suggesting that Domenici ought to consider retirement.  While there is no end in sight for Domenici’s continued negative press coverage and while his approvals continue to sink, his retirement may ultimately hinge on whether the Democrats field a strong opponent, and soon.

UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Craig delayed his 2008 electoral plan announcement from “this summer” to “late summer or fall.”  Also, regardless of how inexpensive the Idaho media market is, by any measure Craig had a very weak Q1 fundraising take, suggesting that his heart isn’t in a re-election bid.  It also doesn’t help perceptions that GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is chomping at the bit for Craig to retire so that he can enter the race.

EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Fundraising has been the biggest signal that Cochran may in fact run for another term, as he nearly met his fundraising goal for the first quarter of 2007 while his likely understudy, GOP Rep. Chip Pickering, raised only a meager sum in Q1.  However, two subtle hints suggest a Cochran retirement is more likely than some may suspect.  First, Karl Rove’s presentation on the Senate’s “Republican Defense” states included Mississippi, likely to only be competitive if Cochran retired.  Did Rove have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?  Second, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania suggested that he would be the senior Republican Senator on the Appropriations Committee in 2010, despite Cochran’s committee seniority.  Did Specter have inside info on Cochran’s decision-making process?

EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Since Hagel’s notorious non-announcement, he has suggested that he is ramping up his fundraising to prepare for a Senate re-election bid.  But state Attorney General Jon Bruning has demonstrated early strength in a possible NE-GOP Senate primary.  And Hagel’s approval-disapproval has seen better days.  Meanwhile, Hagel’s own comments as well as his time spent with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg has fueled speculation of an independent Presidential bid.

EVEN Utah’s Orrin Hatch: Yes, Utah’s Orrin Hatch.  Documented rumors have suggested that Hatch has been “campaigning” in a sense for the position of U.S. Attorney General should Alberto Gonzales resign, be fired, or otherwise lose the position.  An unknown, to be sure, but something to keep an eye on.

DOWN Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander: Alexander declared in early April that he “plans to run for re-election in 2008.”

DOWN Alaska’s Ted Stevens: While Stevens’ advanced age will perpetually keep him on the Retirement Watch radar, the fact that he has just recently taken lengths to distance himself from his son’s involvement in a corruption scandal rather than defend his son suggests that he’s still most interested in politically protecting himself, suggesting that he plans on making good on his threat to run for re-election.

With the dust settling, the Retirement Watch breakdown currently stands at:

Definitely retiring: Wayne Allard (CO)

On Retirement Watch: Thad Cochran (MS), Larry Craig (ID), Pete Domenici (NM), Chuck Hagel (NE), Jim Inhofe (OK), John Warner (VA)

Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Lamar Alexander (TN), Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Susan Collins (ME), John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), Ted Stevens (AK), John Sununu (NH)

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

Numbers courtesy of The Washington Post and the Senate 2008 Guru.

January ’07
DSCC: $2.2 million
NRSC: $0.9 million

February ’07
DSCC: $2.7 million
NRSC: $2.4 million

March ’07
DSCC: $8.8 million
NRSC: $3.7 million

Q1 Take
DSCC: $13.7 million
NRSC: $ 7.0 million

Cash-on-hand at end of March ’07
DSCC: $9.50 million ($6 million debt)
NRSC: $3.45 million ($0 debt)

Observations:
1) DSCC had a better March than the NRSC had for its entire Q1
2) DSCC’s cash-on-hand advantage is larger than the debt difference (so let’s pay off some of that debt and get it out of the way!)
3) Who has the momentum is clear.

[Cross-posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

The Albuquerque Tribune just came out with an article on Pajamas Pete Domenici’s Q1 fundraising.  Domenici raised a seemingly meager $393,000 for Q1.  It looks meager given that Domenici is a long-time incumbent and former Chair of a powerful committee.  The article elucidates:

Domenici’s total is dwarfed by what was spent on most Senate races in 2006 but is comparable to what Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Silver City Democrat, raised and spent on the way to an easy victory over Allen McCulloch of Farmington last year.

Bingaman raised about $230,000 in the first quarter of 2005 and had $556,000 in cash on hand at the end of the period. He wound up spending about $3.3 million. Domenici spent about $4.6 million on his last re-election race in 2002.

Bingaman spent $3.3 million to beat his opponent 71-29 last year.  In 2002, Domenici spent $4.6 million and only beat his opponent 65-35, a drubbing to be sure, but a smaller margin than Bingaman’s victory and at a 40% higher price.

So, Domenici is on a correct fundraising pace, if he just wants to raise the same $3 to $5 million for a cake-walk run.

(More below the fold.)

Keep in mind that his physical health, and some have suggested his mental health, are giving away.  And he has that pesky Senate Ethics investigation looming over his head.

If a top-tier challenger ran against Domenici, he would have to raise maybe $8 to $10 million, probably double what he originally expected.  And he’d have to debate and hustle and endure the rigors of a tough campaign.  And, all this, again, while the Senate Ethics investigation loomed over him.  With all that to consider, if a top-tier candidate entered the race, I think Domenici, who turns 75 next month, would opt for retirement.

But that candidate would have to enter the race soon, to force Domenici to a decision.  As I’ve suggested before, Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is probably the strongest option, with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish keeping her eye on the Governor’s office and former state AG Patricia Madrid having just narrowly lost to Heather Wilson and (however unfairly) being tangentially connected to the scandal that plagues Domenici.

If Tom Udall entered the race now, he could force Domenici to retire and have a not-too-difficult run against far-right-winger Steve Pearce or an even less-prominent Republican opponent.  But Udall would have to get in soon.  With all of the draft movements cropping up, I’d sure like to see one get started for Tom Udall.

[Cross posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Let’s revisit candidate filing for the 2006 cycle.  At this point in the 2006 cycle (i.e. April 1, 2005), 9 of the 28 listed Senate non-incumbent challengers had filed, or just about one-third.  At this point, the Republicans had seen Bob Corker, Mark Kennedy, and Tom Kean Jr. file.  The Democrats saw Amy Klobuchar, Bob Casey, and Sheldon Whitehouse file.  In other words, while there is lots of time left to recruit candidates and to see strong challengers file, both parties should have a couple promising candidates to point to at this point.

The Democrats, right now, can point to Mark Udall well-situated in Colorado for a pick-up.  In New Hampshire, Sprintin’ John Sununu lost in a hypothetical match-up to former Governor Jeanne Shaheen by 10 points, suggesting that she is the #1 potential recruit for the Democrats – though a spirited primary is underway with promising candidates.  In Minnesota, Al Franken went from being down 20 points in mid-February, right after announcing, to being only down 10 points a month later.  Mid-April polling will give us a fuller indication of the direction of this possible trend.  Additionally, strong candidates are considering races in Alabama, Maine, and Nebraska.  There is clearly still much work to be done as the year goes in, particularly in states like Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia if Democrats are to take full advantage of the political opportunities before them.

And how are the NRSC and the Republicans doing?  Well, not so good.  There are twelve Democratic incumbents and one open seat.  Let’s run through all thirteen potential battlegrounds, starting with the open seat.

Colorado (open seat): The CO-GOP just saw their top candidate back out of the race and back-ups like state AG Suthers have some conservatives less than enthused.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Arkansas (Senator Mark Pryor): Just yesterday, it was reported that former Governor and Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, perhaps the only candidate that a weakened AR-GOP could put up to make the race competitive, has ruled out a Senate challenge.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Delaware (Senator Joe Biden): GOP Rep. Mike Castle is perhaps the only Republican who could offer even a somewhat challenging race against Biden, but he seems to have indicated, for yet another cycle, that he isn’t interested.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Illinois (Senator Richard Durbin): The IL-GOP is reduced to begging wealthy conservatives to martyr themselves in a self-funded campaign to prevent Durbin from having a total cake-walk re-election.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Iowa (Senator Tom Harkin): Right now, the IA-GOP Senate primary consists of two token candidates in tongue-tied conservative Steve Rathje and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell.  Iowa’s several flawed Republican Congresspeople and former Congresspeople are all still biding their time.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Louisiana (Senator Mary Landrieu): Senator Landrieu is supposed to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.  Then how come nobody has stepped up to her yet?  Bobby Jindal seems to be the state’s most popular Republican.  But he is running for Governor, not Senate.  And against a statewide GOP officeholder and potential opponent, LA Sec. of State Jay Dardenne, Landrieu vastly exceeds expectations, winning 53-38, as some Republican Congresspeople take their names out of the running.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Massachusetts (Senator John Kerry): There are two legitimate challengers (Harvard-Pilgrim CEO Charles Baker and former Governor Paul Cellucci) and one “spectacle” challenger (Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling) that could make a race against Senator Kerry.  Baker and Schilling have taken their names out of the running and Cellucci has indicated no interest, particularly in endorsing Rudy Guiliani for President over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  The rest of the MA-GOP is fairly irrelevant-to-nonexistant right now.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Michigan (Senator Carl Levin): There hasn’t been a single substantial peep of noise from the MI-GOP regarding a Senate challenger; and speculation rests primarily (if not only) on the wives of former Michigan politicians.  In the words of police officers everywhere, “Nothing to see here, folks.”  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Montana (Senator Max Baucus): Despite the redness of Montana in Presidential races, the MT-Dems have had major successes including the races of Governor Brian Schweitzer and Senator Jon Tester, as well as significant shifts in the Montana state Legislature.  Also, Baucus is extremely popular in Montana.  The only candidate who could even give Baucus a challenge is GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who the NRSC must be courting like crazy, only to get zero sustained interest so far.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

New Jersey (Senator Frank Lautenberg): I expected the NJ-GOP to kick this potential race into gear early, but we’ve heard practically nothing from them.  Lautenberg’s relatively low approvals aren’t as big of a concern as they’d be in another state, as NJ-Dems can get (re-)elected with low approvals (see: 2006’s Menendez v. Kean Jr.).  And the NJ-GOP’s strongest potential candidate, U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, has taken himself out of the running, leaving, at best, a B-team for the NJ-GOP and NRSC to look at.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

Rhode Island (Senator Jack Reed): The RI-GOP has been even quieter than the MI-GOP.  In 2006, moderate-to-liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee got bounced primarily for having an R next to his name.  Reed is very popular and the RI-GOP bench is slim.  Again, “Nothing to see here.”  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

South Dakota (Senator Tim Johnson): Senator Johnson is extremely popular and recovering from a serious health malady.  It is unclear how the SD-GOP will approach this race.  A political attack on Johnson while he is recovering could seriously backfire.  Meanwhile, it is unclear if Johnson will run for re-election or not, though indications are that he will, barring a health setback.  Had ultra-conservative Governor Mike Rounds gotten in the race early, he might have stood a chance, but now the SD-GOP and NRSC have to sit on their hands and wait.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

West Virginia (Senator Jay Rockefeller): The WV-GOP has been almost as quiet as the MI-GOP and RI-GOP.  At most, they have rumors, but not a single WV Republican has stepped forward, as they wait to see if GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wants to take a shot.  As Capito and other WV Republicans expect this term to be Senator Robert Byrd’s last, they’ll likely wait out that seat for an open race than challenge Rockefeller.  NRSC success or failure so far?  Failure.

So there you go.  The Democrats certainly have some recruiting work to do in some key states, but they have also seen some early success with the ball rolling in other states.  Meanwhile, the NRSC is objectively a resounding 0-for-13 so far in challenges to open seats and Democratic-held seats.

(Does Karl Rove have “the math” once again, or is this for real? – promoted by DavidNYC)

[Cross-posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Hearings were held on allegations of General Services Administration (GSA) misconduct, specifically using GSA staff, time, and resources for Republican partisan political purposes. Think Progress has more and YouTube has clips from the hearing.

Included in the hearing was a PowerPoint presentation from the White House Office of Political Affairs (i.e. Karl Rove’s desk), and one of the slides was titled “Battle for the Senate 2008.” States were broken down as “Republican Offense,” which includes six states, “Republican Defense,” which includes 8 states, and “Not Competitive,” which includes 19 states (though the math wizards in Rove’s office listed it on the slide as “21 states”).

The six states listed under “Republican Offense” are Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. No huge shocks.

The eight states listed under “Republican Defense” are Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, and Virginia. Mississippi?!?! Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon are the obvious top five Republican vulnerabilities. And Virginia and New Mexico are both purple states with possible retirees (even before the Domenici phone call scandal).

But Mississippi?!?! The only Democrat to make Mississippi competitive, at least in a top-tier (i.e. more competitive than, say, North Carolina or Kentucky, which are both listed under “Not Competitive”) sense, is former state Attorney General Mike Moore. And it is believed that Moore will only step up if incumbent Republican Thad Cochran retires.

So, does Rove have inside info that Thad Cochran is planning on retiring, after all? Certainly provokes curiosity. The Guru will keep an ear toward these developments as they unfold.