Month: June 2009

It’s been a while since we posted our last 2010 House Open Seat Watch, so our crack research team down at SSP Labs took extra time in compiling this latest entry of the Watch. Special acknowledgment must be given to SSP Forensic Open Seat Analyst DavidNYC for making sure that no stone was left unturned.

So once again, we’ve compiled a list of confirmed and potential retirements/vacancies in the House, as well as a list of seats that we’ve removed from our watch list (which is available below the fold). Once again, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are now sortable – just click on any column header to sort.

Here we go:

Only one new open seat for our list this time, and open seat fans can thank a Democratic operative named Barack Obama for making it happen through the appointment of upstate New York Rep. John McHugh to be the nation’s newest Secretary of the Army. We can probably expect to see more retirements later this summer; the Congressional recess in August is a particularly popular time for sitting House members to take stock of their lives and make decisions on the future of their DC careers. So who might be clearing out? Perhaps some of these representatives will be the next ones to hang up their spurs:

See anything we missed? A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from our Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.

Resolved vacancies.

Oh boy, the wingnut is strong in these folks.  Dave Weigel reports that Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL), (in)famous for his birther bill requiring documentation that a candidate for President was born in the U.S., has picked up four more co-sponsors, all Republicans (of course).  They are:

John R. Carter (TX-31)

John Culberson (TX-07)

Randy Neugebauer (TX-19)

John Campbell (CA-48)

Rep. Bob Goodlatte (VA-06) had already signed on last month.  More after the fold….

Posey says those Congressmen came to him to co-sponsor the bill, that it wasn’t him begging them to do so.  And then he launched into an invective against Rachel Maddow.

You may recall that [Stephen] Colbert used the “F” word to describe on national TV a relationship my grandmother, bless her heart, deceased grandmother, must have had with an alligator to come up with the likes of me. [Keith] Olbermann named me the Worst Person in the World and angry woman Rachel Maddow has just trashed me on every show, and asked me to come on her show. You know, I won’t do it cause she’s got a lousy, low rated show, and I don’t want to give her the ratings, quite frankly. I’d love to go on and debate her and set the record straight.

Just so y’all remember, here‘s what Colbert had to say about Bill Posey.

And when Posey got upset at Colbert for doing so, he just brought upon more pain to himself with Colbert’s response.

Now, most of these people sit in VERY Republican districts where you probably have a significant chunk of the population that actually believe Obama was not really born here.  Per SSP’s presidential vote by CD, a whopping 72% of Neugebauer’s district voted for McCain, making it the 9th MOST Republican district in the country, in terms of the vote share Obama got.  So forget about defeating Neugebauer at the polls with his co-sponsorship, he might gain support from his constituents for doing this.  Sad, but true.

And Goodlatte (57%), Carter (58%), and Culberson (58%) also come from districts McCain easily won by double digits.  But Bill Posey himself may be in for a world of hurt, and should be.  McCain only beat Obama 51%-48% in Posey’s own FL-15 district.  Posey himself won 53%-42% over underfunded Democrat Dr. Stephen Blythe, outspending him by over an 8:1 margin.  With 48% of the district voting for Obama, I’m sure we could get enough of them upset at Posey for pulling this kind of shit to get them to the polls.  (Anyone know if Blythe wants to run again, or if there’s another Democrat waiting in the wings?)

What’s more, out here in California, Obama narrowly won Campbell’s district, 49.47% to 48.72%.  (Campbell himself easily won against Democrat Steve Young the last three elections.)  Irvine City Councilwoman Beth Krom has announced she’s running against Campbell, as Young is moving over to try his hand at winning the state assembly seat.

Ridicule is well deserved for these Republicans, for now.  But if we want to send a message, the best way would be kicking the vulnerable ones out of Congress at the ballot box in 2010.  Wanna repudiate the birthers?  Send Posey and Campbell packing next year.

Strategic Vision (R) (6/12-14, likely voters, 4/17-19 in parens):

Team Blue:

Roy Barnes: 49 (56)

Thurbert Baker: 30 (29)

David Poythress: 5 (4)

DuBose Porter: 2 (2)

Undecided: 14 (9)

(MoE: ±3%)

Barnes takes a slight dip, but nothing too dramatic — he’s still the man to beat for the top job. Poythress will be in this until the bitter end, but I’d be surprised if a guy like Porter would continue his bid in the face of unbelievable odds.

Team Megachurch:

John Oxendine: 35

Karen Handel: 13

Nathan Deal: 12

Eric Johnson: 4

Ray McBerry: 2

Austin Scott: 2

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±3%)

No clean trendlines here, since Strategic Vision’s last poll of the GOP primary had a number of different candidates in the mix (Lynn Westmoreland and Jack Kingston, for starters), but Oxendine was holding onto a 33-14 lead over state SoS Karen Handel in April. Nathan Deal’s entry into this race hasn’t really changed the calculus yet.

RaceTracker: GA-Gov

*** Update July 7: Now I have all precinct data, PVI calculations are complete. ***

Pennsylvania is expected to lose a district so it will have 18. My goals are:

– Make districts that look fair, even if they’re not.

– Keep communities together

– Try not to screw over any incumbent Democrats

– Put Democratic territory in Democratic districts

– Anticipate future voting trends

Here is my redistricting plan:



Click on the image for a full size screenshot.

Philadelphia closeup:

1st District (old 1st) D+21

“The Eastern Philadelphia district”

Incumbent: Bob Brady (D)

The first district has been shifted east. It is now 51% white, 21% black, 6% Asian and 20% Hispanic. It gave 73.59% of its vote to Obama, making it D+21. The old 1st is D+35.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Philadelphia (pt)	223428	77797	73.59%	25.62%

2nd District (old 2nd) D+40

“The Western Philadelphia district”

Incumbent: Chaka Fattah (D)

The second district is now 24% white, 67% black, 5% Asian and 3% Hispanic. It gave an incredible 93.03% of its vote to Obama, making it D+40. The old 2nd is D+38. It will be the third most Democratic district in America, behind only NY-15 and NY-16, and tied with Washington DC.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Philadelphia (pt)	341893	24374	93.03%	6.63%

3rd District (old 7th) D+9

“The Delaware County district”

Incumbent: whoever succeeds Joe Sestak in 2010

This district has been made more Democratic. It takes up all of Delaware County, the rest of Philadelphia, and a small amount of Montgomery.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Delaware	178870	115273	60.22%	38.81%
Montgomery (pt)	37275	17659	67.45%	31.95%
Philadelphia (pt)	30659	15050	66.38%	32.58%
Total	246804	147982	61.94%	37.14%

4th District (old 13th) D+6

“The Montgomery district”

Incumbent: Allyson Schwartz (D)

This district is now entirely within Montgomery County.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Montgomery (pt)	215206	147338	58.85%	40.29%

5th District (old 8th) D+1

“The Bucks district”

Incumbent: Patrick Murphy (D)

By removing its territory from Philadelphia and Montgomery and adding territory from Lehigh and Northampton the district becomes a little less Democratic. It stops short of Allentown and Bethlehem but takes Easton from the Dent district. Patrick Murphy should be safe.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Bucks	179031	150248	53.78%	45.13%
Lehigh (pt)	6770	7463	47.02%	51.84%
Northampton (pt)	11346	7145	60.55%	38.13%
Total	197147	164856	53.86%	45.04%

6th District (old 16th) D+1

“The Chester district”

Incumbent: Joe Pitts (R)

The current district takes all of Lancaster County and some of Chester. In this plan it takes all of Chester and some of Lancaster, including the city. Chester is the more Democratic county, so this shift makes it more Democratic. Joe Pitts may be able to win this district but after he retires a Democrat should win it.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Chester	137833	114421	54.19%	44.98%
Lancaster (pt)	38485	35210	51.78%	47.37%
Total	176318	149631	53.64%	45.04%

7th District (old 6th, sort of) R+5

“The Reading district”

Incumbent: whoever succeeds Jim Gerlach in 2010

My ideal scenario: Jim Gerlach runs for higher office and a Democrat from Berks County wins the open 6th district in 2010. This Democrat becomes popular quickly and easily wins the more Republican district in 2012. Over time Berks trends more Democratic and Lancaster trends more moderate.

My less ideal scenario: A Republican wins it in 2010, or Jim Gerlach stays, so we make it more Republican.

It is made of almost all of Berks, most of Lancaster, and a tiny amount of Montgomery.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Berks (pt)	92672	73890	54.89%	43.77%
Lancaster (pt)	61101	91358	39.73%	59.40%
Montgomery (pt)	912	555	61.17%	37.22%
Total	154685	165803	47.72%	51.15%

8th District (old 15th) D+4

“The Allentown district”

Incumbent: Charles Dent (R)

The district loses territory from its southeastern border to the Murphy district, and gains most of Monroe County. This shift makes it more Democratic.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Lehigh (pt)	80319	55919	58.17%	40.50%
Monroe (pt)	30676	23064	56.48%	42.47%
Northampton (pt)	63909	51366	54.71%	43.97%
Total	174904	130349	56.57%	42.16%

9th District (old 19th) R+10

“The York district”

Incumbent: Todd Platts (R)

Because of its fast population growth, the district loses some area. It is still strongly Republican.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Adams (pt)	13783	19866	40.49%	58.36%
Cumberland (pt)	42156	54258	43.23%	55.65%
York	82839	109268	42.65%	56.26%
Total	138778	183392	42.60%	56.30%

10th District (old 17th) R+5

“The Harrisburg district”

Incumbent: Tim Holden (D)

This district is still based in Harrisburg. It loses strongly Republican territory in Perry County and gains strongly Republican territory in Northumberland and Montour Counties. Tim Holden keeps getting reelected despite the Republican lean of the district so he should be able to continue. Northumberland and Montour are currently in the Carney district so they are used to having a Democratic Congressman. It is only 0.18% more Republican than before.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Berks (pt)	4375	6623	39.15%	59.27%
Columbia (pt)	5862	4847	53.62%	44.34%
Dauphin	69975	58238	54.02%	58.86%
Lebanon	23310	34314	39.98%	58.86%
Montour	3364	4574	41.93%	57.01%
Northumberland	14329	19018	42.22%	56.04%
Schuylkill	28300	33767	44.88%	53.55%
Total	149515	161381	47.47%	51.24%

11th District (old 11th) D+3

“The Scranton district”

Incumbent: Paul Kanjorski (D) or his successor

The district now includes all of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Carbon	13464	12957	50.01%	48.13%
Columbia (pt)	7401	9600	42.67%	55.37%
Lackawanna	67520	39488	62.59%	36.60%
Luzerne	72492	61127	53.63%	45.22%
Monroe (pt)	8777	5229	62.11%	37.00%
Wyoming	5985	6983	45.55%	53.15%
Total	175639	135384	55.83%	43.04%

12th District (old 10th, and most of 5th) R+8

“The northern district”

Incumbent: Chris Carney (D)

The district takes all of the New York border except Erie County, and it extends south into Centre County. In 2008 Carney was reelected by a comfortable margin and this proposed district is 0.12% more Democratic. I expect northern Pennsylvania will eventually become more Democratic, like Upstate New York. Giving them a Democratic Congressman should speed up the trend. One problem is Glenn Thompson, Republican Congressman from the 5th District, lives in Centre County. He should run in the new 14th.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Bradford	10306	15057	39.97%	58.39%
Cameron	879	1323	39.15%	58.93%
Centre	41950	32992	55.37%	43.55%
Clinton	7097	7504	47.98%	50.73%
Elk	7290	6676	51.08%	46.78%
Forest	1038	1366	42.47%	55.89%
Lycoming (pt)	17163	27587	37.91%	60.94%
McKean	6465	9224	40.54%	57.84%
Pike	11493	12518	47.33%	51.55%
Potter	2300	5109	30.64%	68.06%
Sullivan	1233	1841	39.52%	59.01%
Susquehanna	8381	10633	43.46%	55.13%
Tioga	6390	11326	35.53%	62.98%
Warren	8537	9685	46.10%	52.30%
Wayne	9892	12702	43.32%	55.63%
Total	140414	165543	45.29%	53.39%

13th District (old 9th) R+19

“The south-central district”

Incumbent: Bill Shuster (R)

It’s more compact than before, and shifted a little bit east. This is the northern Bible Belt. At R+19 there are only a small handful of districts in America that are more Republican.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Adams (pt)	3850	6483	36.83%	62.02%
Bedford	6059	16124	27.00%	71.84%
Blair	19813	32708	37.31%	61.59%
Cumberland (pt)	6150	9471	38.95%	59.99%
Franklin	21169	41906	33.26%	65.85%
Fulton	1576	4642	24.99%	73.61%
Huntingdon	6621	11745	35.54%	63.04%
Juniata	3068	6484	31.59%	66.77%
Lycoming (pt)	1218	2693	30.72%	67.92%
Mifflin	5375	10929	32.57%	66.23%
Perry	6396	13058	32.39%	66.13%
Snyder	5382	9900	34.77%	63.96%
Somerset (pt)	5323	11473	31.21%	67.27%
Union	7333	9859	42.14%	56.66%
Total	99333	187475	34.23%	64.60%

14th District (parts of the old 5th, 12th and 9th) R+10

“The Johnstown district”

Incumbent: Glenn Thompson (R) [from Centre County]

I’ve been told this area would elect a Democratic Congressman despite its Republican PVI because it’s historically Democratic. I’ll believe it when I see it. This will be the whitest district in PA at 96.1%.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Cambria	32451	31995	49.42%	48.72%
Clearfield	14555	18662	43.05%	55.19%
Fayette (pt)	7274	10319	40.84%	57.94%
Indiana	17065	19727	45.75%	52.88%
Jefferson	3068	6484	31.59%	66.77%
Somerset (pt)	7555	10213	41.71%	56.38%
Westmoreland (pt)	41679	61144	40.07%	58.79%
Total	123647	158544	43.17%	55.35%

15th District (parts of the old 3rd and 4th) R+13

“The Butler district”

Incumbent: Tim Murphy (R)

Tim Murphy (R) lives in the 17th and Jason Altmire (D) lives in the 15th. They should trade districts.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	62879	80564	43.48%	55.71%
Armstrong	11138	18542	37.03%	61.64%
Butler	32260	57074	35.68%	63.12%
Clarion	6756	10737	38.03%	60.44%
Venango	9238	13718	39.64%	58.66%
Westmoreland (pt)	16670	22239	42.44%	56.62%
Total	138941	202874	40.22%	58.72%

16th District (old 14th) D+14

“The Pittsburgh district”

Incumbent: Mike Doyle (D)

The district gets bigger because the Pittsburgh area lost population. I shifted it east so the Altmire district could get some more Democratic towns along the Ohio River.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	225371	107892	66.97%	32.06%

17th District (parts of the old 12th and 18th) R+3

“The southwest district”

Incumbent: Jason Altmire (D) [assuming Murtha retires, or gets indicted]

This southwestern PA district is compact and Obama wins it. Yes it’s possible.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	84521	83501	49.84%	49.23%
Beaver (pt)	14587	12626	52.91%	45.80%
Fayette (pt)	18592	15762	53.50%	45.36%
Greene	7829	7889	49.00%	49.38%
Washington	46122	50752	47.04%	51.76%
Westmoreland (pt)	6285	4989	55.23%	43.84%
Total	177936	175519	49.80%	49.12%

18th District (old 3rd) R+1

“The Erie district”

Incumbent: Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Now it’s a proper Democratic Northwest PA district.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Beaver (pt)	25912	30269	45.52%	53.18%
Crawford	16780	20750	44.00%	54.41%
Erie	75775	50351	59.34%	39.43%
Lawrence	19711	21851	46.82%	51.90%
Mercer	26411	26565	49.07%	49.36%
Total	164589	149786	51.65%	47.00%

Doc’s Political Parlor deserves some major props for releasing an awesome election directory of every race and every candidate for the Alabama state House in 2010. Not only that, they provide SSP/Cook-style race ratings for all 105 House districts in the state, which really goes a long way toward giving a novice like myself on Alabama politics a quick primer on the states’s key downballot battles.

This is the sort of thing that I’d like to see more state blogs attempt to do. It’s extremely difficult to follow state legislative races in all 50 states, but if every major state blog poured the time and resources into a Political Parlor-style legislative election directory/race ratings project, the benefits would be incalculable.

UPDATE (David): Nice seeing everyone looking to get in on the action! BTW, Doc’s guide to state Senate races is here.

Rasmussen Reports (6/16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 50

Pat Toomey (R): 39

Undecided: 7

Joe Sestak (D): 41

Pat Toomey (R): 35

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±5%)

This is the second half of the Rasmussen poll from yesterday which tested the Dem primary. I don’t really love it when pollsters dribble out results over the course of several days… though I’m sure that if I were in the polling business myself, I’d do exactly the same thing. Anyhow, this survey shows what we all know: Pat Toomey is a Dead Man.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen

• IL-Sen: AG Lisa Madigan is apparently warming up to the idea of running for Senate instead of Governor (thanks to some entreaties from some big players — Madigan met with Barack Obama at the White House last week). However, according to the Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet, she has some demands: she wants an endorsement from Obama when she announces, and she wants the field cleared of rivals.

That’s potentially very awk-ward, though, as state Treasurer (and, more notably, Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias is already in the race, and has been fundraising very well (Madigan is sitting on $4 million, but that’s marked for a governor’s race and can’t be transferred to a federal race, so she’d be back to square one). Giannoulias issued a strong statement today that he wouldn’t be “bullied” out of the race, and sought to tie Madigan to party insiders. And even if Obama does manage to dangle some sort of carrot to entice Giannoulias out of the race, does he have the same sort of traction with Chris Kennedy, who also looks set to get in?

• NC-Sen: Here’s not the way to rebut polls showing you in bad shape: with a transparently pathetic internal poll. The Richard Burr camp points to a poll that reveals him “winning” (albeit with no specific topline numbers) against SoS Elaine Marshall, but with the head-to-head question asked only after questions as to which of the two would better serve as a “check and balance on the policies of Barack Obama.” No results against other interested Dems (like Mike McIntyre) were discussed.

• NH-Sen: More focus today on the possibility of Kelly Ayotte for the GOP Senate nomination. Attorney General in NH is an appointed position, so she’s never faced voters before, but that may be an asset; the rest of the state’s GOP bench, in Chuck Todd’s words, “all seem to have the smell of defeat on them.” Meanwhile, Rahm Emanuel will be hosting a DC fundraiser for Rep. Paul Hodes later this month, as Hodes (who banked only $260K in 1Q) looks to pick up the fundraising pace.

• NV-Sen: In an example of the law of unintended consequences, John Ensign’s little indiscretions are further complicating the Nevada GOP’s efforts to find a suitable challenger to Harry Reid, as insiders get distracted by assessing the fallout. If today is any indication, it looks like the fallout is growing, not shrinking, with allegations of a second affair, and Ensign walking back his initial “extortion” claims in view of the complicated financial links between Ensign and the Hampton clan. For emphasis, if there were any doubt about it, ex-Rep. Jon Porter confirmed today that he won’t be running against Reid.

• SD-Gov, SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin hasn’t ruled out running for Governor in 2010; she said she’ll make a decision by the August recess.

• CA-03: Many insiders seem settled on CA-03 as the Democrats’ top target in California next year. Unbeknownst to many, there’s a third Democrat in the race against Rep. Dan Lungren, physician Ami Bera, who got in in April… and he’s actually been fundraising like a champ, claiming he’s on pace to have $250K at the end of June.

• CA-44: CA-44 seems like a good place for a pickup, too, especially now that Rep. Ken Calvert is getting softened up with a primary challenge from his friendly neighborhood teabagger. Real estate broker Chris Riggs said the race would be a “litmus test” and referred to Calvert as a “big tax-and-spend incumbent.”

• FL-08: State House speaker Larry Cretul (who just took over the job in March, in the wake of former speaker Ray Sansom’s corruption indictment) may already be looking to move up. He’s been talking to the NRCC about taking on Rep. Alan Grayson in this Dem-trending R+2 district. This may push out state Rep. Steve Precourt, who said he wouldn’t want to share a primary with Cretul. Cretul might still face an uphill battle in a primary, though, as his base is in Marion County, rather than the district’s population center of Orange County, where another likely GOPer candidate, Rich Crotty, is mayor.

• MS-01: State Sen. Merle Flowers has decided to forego a challenge to Cold Chillin’ Travis (apparently at the behest of the NRCC), clearing a path for fellow Sen. Alan Nunnelee – for now. Others may get in, and in a move reminiscent of the disastrous post-primary period last year, Flowers did not endorse Nunnelee. The big advantage for Nunnelee is that he, like Childers, is from the Tupelo region, whereas Flowers (like Greg Davis) is from DeSoto County in the south Memphis suburbs. (D)

• DSCC/DCCC: Tonight’s DSCC/DCCC fundraiser with Barack Obama is projected to raise $3 million, an amount that seems kind of weak compared with the $14.5 million haul from the NRCC/NRSC dinner a few weeks earlier. However, lobbyists were banned from the event, and the GOP haul involves some accounting sleight of hand, as the $14.5 million is the two committees’ entire fundraising haul over the eight-week period since early April. In addition, there’s a lower-profile fundraising breakfast/”issues conference” planned for Friday morning where there’s no Obama appearance but also no lobbyist ban in place.

• Census: It looks like we might break the logjam that’s keeping incoming Census Director Robert Groves from being confirmed; it appears he’s part of a blanket hold on several dozen nominees, not a specific hold, and Susan Collins is happy with Groves and working with Democrats to get him in place. In other Census news, the tinfoil-hat wingnuts intent on avoiding and/or lying to the Census have a high-profile supporter: Rep. Michele Bachmann, who says she won’t answer any questions on her form beyond number of people in her house. Because, y’know, if you told Uncle Sam how many bathrooms are in your house, ACORN might somehow win.

• Voting Rights: An interesting trio of voting rights bills passed committee in the House last week to little fanfare: most notably, the Universal Right to Vote by Mail Act (which guarantees no-excuse absentee voting in all states, something that’s still restricted in 22 states right now). Also passed were legislation providing grants to help states provide absentee ballot tracking and confirmation systems, and preventing state election officials from serving on federal campaign committees.

Rasmussen Reports (6/16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 51

Joe Sestak (D): 32

Other: 4

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±5%)

This is the first time Rasmussen is dipping its toe in the water here, so we don’t have any kind of trendline to work with. But Specter’s 19-point lead is the smallest any pollster has shown to date. (A GQR survey put Specter up 55-34). Given how far off Pennsylvania’s primary is, that doesn’t strike me as a terribly formidable margin, especially since Specter is so much better-known.

Rasmussen’s favorability numbers are a bit surprising, though. Among Dems, Specter clocks in with a 72-26 rating, not too different from a six-week-old R2K poll. However, Sestak’s 57-21 favorables seem way high. By comparison, that same R2K survey (which was also of likely voters) showed 56% having no opinion of the guy, as opposed to just 22% here. A more recent Quinnipiac poll (of RVs) showed even bigger d/ks, as did a Republican survey of LVs.

My guess is that this difference comes down to methodology. All prior polls taken of this race used live interviewers; Rasmussen uses IVR. Obviously the discrepancy is because the DOG COULD HAVE BEEN ANSWERING THE CALL. Alternately, it could just be that lower undecideds across the board, whether for favorables or head-to-heads, are simply a hallmark of the push-button nature of robopolls. You decide.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen

UPDATE: I thought this was pretty great (and hilarious) framing – Joe Sestak branded Arlen Specter a “flight risk” in a fundraising email.

• IL-Sen: AG Lisa Madigan is still under a lot of pressure from inside the Beltway to move over from her preferred race (Governor) to the Senate race instead. Thing is, the pressure seems to be working (and the fact that Pat Quinn remains pretty popular also helps): she says she’s “seriously considering it” and will decide within “four to six weeks” whether to run for gov, senate, or another term as AG.

• KY-Sen: SoS Trey Grayson is still treating Jim Bunning as undecided about running for a third term, despite the crotchety Bunning’s many protestations, Abe Simpson-style, that he ain’t dead yet. While saying that he has “no plans to run against him right now,” Grayson says he’d have a better answer to the question “after next month, when Bunning makes a decision….” Still, he says “I don’t suspect that (having to run against Bunning) would be a problem,” if Bunning stays in the GOP primary. The remarks were made at a poorly-attended (as in less than 50) Grayson fundraiser in Corbin.

• MO-Sen: Rep. Roy Blunt can’t catch a break. No sooner than professor Tom Schweich bailed out and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman’s message discipline came completely unglued, along comes yet another likely primary challenger: state Senator Chuck Purgason, who formed an exploratory committee. It sounds like he’ll be going at Blunt from the right (Purgason is known for his “country-western fashion sense and iron-clad fiscal conservatism,” and said we must “stop the ‘changing’ of America”).

• NC-Sen (pdf): Good polling news out of North Carolina, according to PPP: Generic Democrat leads Richard Burr, 41-38. (There’s still the little matter of nailing down a candidate, of course.) Only 29% overall (and 49% of Republicans) think he deserves another term, while 49% say give someone else a chance. Burr’s approval is 34/35, with a 31% “not sure,” which is still crazily high for a sitting senator.

• NH-Sen: Senatorial speculation for the GOP in the Granite State has turned to AG Kelly Ayotte. (AG is an appointed position in New Hampshire; Ayotte was appointed by ex-Gov. Craig Benson, but retained by John Lynch.) Still, everything seems to be on hold until fall, when the younger John Sununu is supposed to make known his senate intentions. Dean at Blue Hampshire observes ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (another possible Senate, or NH-02, candidate) getting a little testy about having to wait for Sununu Jr. to make up his mind (or for Sununu Sr. to make up Jr.’s mind).

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney keeps ratcheting up her attacks on Kirsten Gillibrand, focusing increasingly on character and credibility. She hit Gillibrand’s “evolving” stances and said “She’s, to my knowledge, never passed anything. She spends all her time fund-raising. I spend my time doing things.” Meanwhile, Gillibrand rolled out the endorsements of 52 of the 62 Democratic Party county chairs in New York. That seems huge, but only half the population of New York state is accounted for, as they have yet to endorse in New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx, Richmond, and Suffolk Counties.

• CA-Gov: Rep. John Campbell from CA-48 in Orange County endorsed Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner a few months ago, but he recently dropped that endorsement and then this week endorsed ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman instead. Campbell’s explanation is that when he first endorsed Poizner, Whitman wasn’t in the race yet and he had never met her. (This Campbell, of course, is not to be confused with ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, who’s the third wheel in the GOP gubernatorial primary.)

• LA-03, LA-Sen: GOP state Rep. Nickie Monica, who has recently met with officials at the NRCC, is telling his contacts that he’s planning on running against Democrat Charlie Melancon. Meanwhile, faced with the prospect of a strong challenge and the looming uncertainties of redistricting, Melancon is still giving a race against GOP Sen. David Vitter a “pretty hard” look, according to a “Democratic insider.” (J)

• NY-23: Republican state Senator Joe Griffo, who’s based outside the district in Rome but whose turf overlaps part of the 23rd, said he won’t run in the special election. For the Dems, veteran Danny Francis (who ran twice against McHugh in the 1990s) said he’ll seek the nomination. Dem state Senator Darrel Aubertine shot down speculation that he’d fielded a call from Barack Obama about the seat, although he did cop to talking to DCCC recruitment guru Steve Israel about it.

• OH-15: ’08 candidate/ex-state Sen. Steve Stivers says that he’ll make up his mind on a rematch against Mary Jo Kilroy by the 4th of July, but Ohio Republicans apparently feel very confident that he’ll jump into the race. (J)

• PA-06, PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach has set a deadline of “this summer” for deciding whether to jump into the 2010 governor’s race — although he certainly seems to be moving to do so, positioning himself message-wise as the only GOPer who’s dealt with fiscal issues in a legislature. In the meantime, GOP power brokers are getting antsy that Gerlach’s delay in announcing his plans are complicating their efforts to hold this D+4 seat (although GOP state Rep. Curt Schroder is already warming up in the bullpen, having opened an exploratory committee).

• Votes: The war supplemental passed the House 226-202 yesterday, with 32 Democrats and 5 Republicans breaking ranks. The GOPers fall under the ‘moderate’ umbrella: Cao, King, Kirk, Candace Miller, and John McHugh (for whom a ‘no’ vote would be awk-ward, as the incoming Sec. of the Army). The Dems are generally the most liberal few dozen, although with a few eyebrow-raising exceptions (Eric Massa, maybe most notably): Baldwin, Capuano, Conyers, Doggett, Donna Edwards, Ellison, Farr, Filner, Grayson, Grijalva, Honda, Kaptur, Kucinich, Barbara Lee, Lofgren, Massa, McGovern, Michaud, Payne, Pingree, Polis, Serrano, Shea-Porter, Sherman, Speier, Stark, Tierney, Tsongas, Waters, Watson, Welch, and Woolsey.  

Because there simply haven’t been enough roundups on the front page today…

• OR-Gov: GOP pollmeisters Moore Information give us their take on a trio of hypothetical gubernatorial races, pitting hickory-flavored wingnut Rep. Greg Walden against ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber, Rep. Peter DeFazio and ex-SoS Bill Bradbury. Moore says that Walden has a fighting chance, coming only four points shy of each Democrat. Somehow I suspect that this is an optimistic view of Walden’s chances, but I doubt that he’ll make it a race, anyway.

• PA-Gov: An internal poll commissioned by Dem gubernatorial candidate Tom Knox and conducted by Fairbank-Maslin points to a tight primary race. In a head-to-head match-up with most voters undecided, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato noses Knox, a businessman and one-time Philly mayoral candidate, by a 22-21 margin. When Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham and Auditor General Jack Wagner’s names were added to the equation, Knox and Onorato came out tied at 14%, with 13% going to Wagner and Cunningham claiming 7%. However, Onorato has a lot of room for growth, as he’s currently getting pasted 42-6 margin in favor of Knox in southeast Pennsylvania due to a name recognition deficit. Of course, the same could be said for Knox in the western reaches of the state.

• VA-Gov: The DGA has plopped down some coin on an Anzalone-Liszt survey of Virginia, and the early nums look pretty good for Creigh Deeds, who’s leading Bob McDonnell by 42-38 — a fairly modest lead, yes, but encouraging when you consider that Tim Kaine was lagging behind Jerry Kilgore in every public poll of the 2005 campaign until October. Deeds is also slightly better-liked than McDonnell at this point, earning a 48-14 favorable rating to Mickey D’s 43-19.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA dips their toes into the GOP primary to replace Sam Brownback in the Senate, and it’s pretty much a dead heat between Original and Extra Crispy Wingnut: 1st CD Rep. Jerry Moran edges 4th CD Rep. Todd Tiahrt by 40-38. Bonus finding: In a hypothetical gubernatorial primary, Brownback defeats Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh by a 58-19 margin. I guess Thornburgh didn’t even need to see this poll before deciding to pull the plug on his candidacy yesterday.

• WI-Sen: Just how badly Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle should be worrying about his chances of survival next year is up for debate, but Russ Feingold looks like he’ll be okay. Public Policy Polling’s latest expedition in the Badger state finds that Feingold would beat GOP Rep. Paul Ryan by a 51-39 margin.

• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac’s latest poll of this most low-energy of races finds more good news for Mayor Bloomsberry: Hizzoner leads Democratic Comptroller William Thompson by a 54-32 margin, up from 49-35 in March.