So, with the caveat that I don’t really believe that neutral redistricting is possible, I’ve redistricted my own state of Pennsylvania as I think it might appear if the legislature deadlocks and a Federal district court has to appoint a special master to draw the lines. There are 18k “missing” people in this map, which I assume is a software bug in Dave’s app. Anyway, without further ado. . .
Delaware Valley:
Philly:
Eastern PA:
Central PA:
Western PA:
Pittsburgh:
Tonight Senator John Ensign (R-NV) will announce he has had an extramarital affair (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/ensign-to-acknowledge-extramar.html?hpid=topnews). While many of the details have yet to be revealed, Ensign was a rising star in the GOP, having the unenviable task of leading the NRSC in the 2008 cycle. He even recently spoke in Iowa, stoking chatter that he may be considering a 2012 Presidential run. So this can’t be considered a minor blip on the radar for the Republicans, as it puts an embarassing scandal in front of them right as they’re trying to mount a united opposition to Obama’s agenda.
Moreover, in 2007, Ensign was one of the first Senators to call for Larry Craig’s resignation over his foot-tapping affair in a Minneapolis airport bathroom, calling such behavior “disgraceful.” While it is unlikely that he will step down as a result of this (even though he, unlike Craig, was actually caught having an affair) it will likely kill any hopes he had of a 2012 bid for President. It may also damage the GOP as well, as he was (to date) the only Western, or in truth non-Southern GOPer, to consider mounting a serious bid (some may argue Palin is also a Westerner but I’d put her in a whole other category). Geographically, it only further limits the base the GOP can draw from when challenging Obama. The West was one of the few areas they likely could have mounted a serious challenge to the President’s electoral chances.
This could also impact his 2012 re-election chances. Nevada is no Louisiana, and voters there aren’t so partisanly Republican as to automatically forgive Ensign for his actions (although, this is the state that’s home to Sin City so maybe folks there won’t care). As a Democrat, I only laugh again at a GOP’er who couldn’t keep his pants on, but it seems this has been a trend for both sides (Edwards, anyone?)
Seriously, what the hell possess guys who have a chance at becoming the most powerful elected leader in the world to throw it away over something so trivial? Any thoughts on any of this? I’m especially interested to see what our Nevadans think.
Creigh Deeds’s landslide in the Virginia Gubernatorial Primary on June 9th was shocking to pundits like me. This race was supposed to be a three way nail biter fought by Terry McAuliffe’s money and his big name supporters; Brian Moran who had Northern Virginia roots and Creigh Deeds carrying rural Virginia. Instead, Deeds won everywhere except in a few Hampton Roads independent cities and Alexandria. What happened in this race echoes the 1988 Democratic presidential primary: All the major candidates attacked Rep. Richard Gephardt (D, MO) leaving room for Dukakis to win. Moran attacked McAuliffe and McAuliffe attacked Moran allowing Creigh Deeds to sneak into Northern Virginia and win. Deeds must now beat Republican Bob McDonnell, the conservative Attorney General of Virginia. It will be a rematch because in 2005, Deeds lost to McDonnell by 360 votes for Attorney General in 2005 out of the 1.9 million cast. Yes, the 2005 election looks like Florida in 2000 but it was more gracious than that. I will explain how Deeds can develop a winning strategy in light of his strengths and weaknesses.
Creigh Deeds was the most Conservative Democrat running in the Gubernatorial Primary. Even though he is pro-choice, he is also pro-gun and the NRA endorsed him in 2005. He will probably get it again. The NRA endorsement helped him in rural areas but not in Northern Virginia. Still, it would be hard to believe that a pro gun control voter in Northern Virginia would support the very conservative McDonnell over Deeds. Since Tim Kaine, the Democratic Governor of Virginia won big in Northern Virginia in 2005, the Democratic voters came out in big numbers and Deeds will need that type of turn out once again. I believe he will do that because of backlash to McDonnell’s record and because of the type of showing Deeds showed in the primary. . He also ran strong in rural areas especially in his home House of Delegates district. Against McDonnell, he won Alleghany County in his home district with 75% of the vote. Even McCain won that county against Obama. Deeds’s district is located near the Shenandoah Valley and borders West Virginia. To win rural areas, Deeds must portray himself as a candidate who stands for rural issues as he showed in the primary. Another trouble spot for Deeds is the Hampton Roads area. . Bob McDonnell, a Virginia Beach resident won it by 15 points when John McCain barely won it against Obama. The only congressional district Deeds lost in the primary was an African American majority district that contained some Hampton Roads cities. Since the Hampton Roads area provided McDonnell with the margin he needed to become Attorney General. Hampton Roads has a large military population. Deeds can pull the race close if he can tout his Veterans record. Deeds wants tax relief for disabled Veterans and is a fan of Virginia’s Wounded Warrior Program. If he fails to make inroads there, he could try to win Loudon and Prince William Counties. They surround Fairfax County and since 2001, they almost always vote for the winner. If Deeds can paint McDonnell as an extreme religious right candidate, Deeds can win in Northern Virginia. Deeds has one problem in Northern Virginia: He is tough on illegal immigration which would help in Conservative areas but would hurt him among Hispanic voters in Northern Virginia. If Deeds can hold the voters he won in 2005, he can win because more D.C Liberals have moved into Virginia since 2005, making it easier for Deeds to win to pick up the additional votes. A recent state wide poll showed Deeds leading by six points. Was this just a post primary bounce or a harbinger for this election?
Bob McDonnell is a candidate with contrasts. Unlike Deeds, McDonnell is not a Virginia native. Even though Deeds will try hard to win Hampton Roads, McDonnell had military service while Deeds did not. Also, McDonnell’s home area is home to many evangelicals and McDonnell has close ties to Pat Robertson and that voting block. Those ties probably helped McDonnell enough in rural areas to enable him win against Deeds in 2005. Yet, those ties will hurt McDonnell in Northern Virginia where the population is generally averse to the Southern Virginia Religious Conservatives. Northern Virginia voted against then Sen. George Allen in 2006, against Jerry Kilgore who was the Republican Gubernatorial nominee in 2005. McDonnell needs to keep those ties to Pat Robertson to compete for votes in rural areas but also needs to shed them to compete in Northern Virginia. If Deeds wants to win, he needs to run ads in Northern Virginia highlighting McDonnell’s ties to Pat Robertson.
These are the main strengths, strategies and weaknesses of each candidate. Here is the winning strategy for Deeds: rack up large margins in Northern Virginia by campaigning there and running ads portraying Bob McDonnell as a religious Conservative with ties to Pat Robertson. Try to at least reduce the margins in Hampton Roads by spending time there and running ads promoting Deeds’s record on Veterans. In the rural areas, Deeds needs to run ads referring to him as “just another hardworking Virginian” and highlight his record on guns. If the NRA endorses him, he needs to run ads with their endorsement. Even though Loudon and Prince William Counties are considered the important key, I believe the key area is rural Virginia. The real bellwether county appears to be suburban Henrico County near Richmond. It has many Conservatives and African Americans. So on election night, watch not only Loudon and Prince William Counties but also Henrico County. Deeds should win the bellwether counties if he sticks to his strategy. The most important tactic he must use is just to well….be himself. He has a lovely family and a great personality. If Virginians can see that combined with his positions and record compared to McDonnell’s, they will probably vote for him.
Loading ...• MO-Sen: In an e-mail to local TV affiliate KY3, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman seems to be walking back her comments to the Hill yesterday, not wanting to appear to shut the door on a GOP primary bid against Rep. Roy Blunt. She says she’s still “very seriously considering” it.
• PA-Sen: Here’s an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.
• AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren’t going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems’ best bet.
• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).
• CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he’s considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.
• FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn’t see as a “fresh face” or viable, although Precourt said he’d stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.
• ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he’s in. He’ll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn’t said anything definite.
• NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes’ open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.
• NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there’s an official vacancy.
• PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.
• Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren’t on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they’re made less convoluted.
• AR-Sen: The leader of Arkansas teabaggers’ movement, Tom Cox, has decided that he’ll run for the GOP nomination for Senate to run against Blanche Lincoln. Cox is the owner of Aloha Pontoon Boats, where he had a little trouble last year with a federal raid turned up 13 illegal immigrants working for him… which doesn’t sound like it’ll play well with his ideal base voters. In the primary, he’ll face off against an anti-semitic state senator and some Huckabee buddy who owns a food safety company.
• FL-Sen: The movement conservatives continue to square off against the establishment in the GOP Florida Senate primary. Jim DeMint, probably the most conservative senator by most metrics and with a sizable grass roots following, just endorsed Marco Rubio.
• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk still refuses to say what exactly he’s doing, but he promises that he’s raising money “for a big campaign.” (His last few House races have been big-money affairs, so who knows what that means?)
• KS-Sen: Dems seem to be moving closer to actually having a candidate in the Kansas Senate race: former newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger, who formed an exploratory committee.
• KY-Sen: State Senate President David Williams had publicly contemplated getting into the GOP primary against Jim Bunning, even meeting with the NRSC, but he said yesterday that he won’t run. He refused to officially endorse anybody, but said he was most excited about philanthropist and former ambassador Cathy Bailey among the possible candidates.
• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has set a July 4th deadline for deciding whether or not to run in the Senate primary. Meanwhile, Kirsten Gillibrand picked up two endorsement from groups with a lot of on-the-ground firepower: New York State United Teachers and (cue the Phase 5 wingnut freakout) ACORN. Rep. Peter King, on the GOP side, set his own deadline, saying he’ll decide whether or not to run by Labor Day. Also today is word that Barack Obama had King in his sights as he cut a swath through Northeast Republicans by offering him a job — in his case, ambassador to Ireland, which King declined.
• PA-Sen: Looks like that Act of God never happened, because Rep. Joe Sestak is actively staffing up for a Senate primary challenge to Arlen Specter.
• WV-Sen: With 91-year-old Robert Byrd having been in the hospital for nearly a month now and not planning an immediate return to the Senate, there have been some behind-the-scenes discussions of what happens if he can’t return to office. West Virginia state Democratic party chair Nick Casey is seen as the consensus choice to serve as placeholder until the 2010 election, if need be.
• AZ-Gov: This can’t be helping Jan Brewer (the Republican SoS who ascended to the governor’s mansion to replace Janet Napolitano) as she considers whether or not to run for a full term: she’s in a standoff with her Republican-controlled legislature over the budget, almost single-handedly leaving the state on track to a government shutdown.
• FL-Gov: David Hill, a top GOP pollster in Florida, is leery about the chances for AG Bill McCollum (who’s already lost statewide twice, and now is trying to transparently reboot himself as a Charlie Crist-style moderate) in the gubernatorial election. He says he’s been actively encouraging state Senator Paula Dockery to follow through on jumping into the primary.
• KS-Gov: Sen. Sam Brownback got some good news: SoS Ron Thornburgh decided to get out of the GOP primary, leaving Brownback a clear path. (Not that Thornburgh was going to pose much of a threat, which is why he got out.) And finally a Democratic state Senator, Chris Steineger, seems to be getting into the race for Team Blue — although he sounds like a bit of a loose cannon, having pissed off most of the state party establishment at various points.
• MI-Gov: George Perles, the 75-year-old former football coach at Michigan State and currently an MSU trustee (which is a statewide elected position) announced that he’s running for the Democratic nomination. He joins Lt. Gov. John Cherry in the field, who seems to have most of the establishment backing so far.
• MN-Gov: Contrary to earlier reports, Rep. Michele Bachmann hasn’t quite ruled out a bid for Governor in 2010, what with Tim Pawlenty stepping down. She expresses her ambivalence with some nice Harlequin romance novel phrasing: “If my heart moved in the other direction and I had the tug, I’d do it. I wouldn’t be afraid to run for office. I just don’t feel the tug.”
• NV-Gov: Another GOPer is sniffing out the governor’s race (kind of a no-brainer, given the world of shit Jim Gibbons is in): Reno mayor Bob Cashell, who was last seen endorsing Harry Reid a few weeks ago. Of course, there’s the risk that if too many credible GOP challengers get in, Gibbons has a better shot at surviving the primary via a badly split vote… although facing a wounded Gibbons in the general would probably be the best scenario for the Dems.
Yesterday I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.
Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the shiny new 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)
As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 178 Republican held districts can be considered filled (although I think we may sneak a win in the NY-23rd Special).
85 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:
AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,
AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,
AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,
AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,
AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,
AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,
CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,
CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,
CA-10 (VACANT) – D+11,
CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,
CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,
CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,
CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,
CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,
CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,
CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,
CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,
CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,
CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,
CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,
FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,
FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,
FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,
FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,
FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,
FL-19 (Wexler) – D+15,
FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,
FL-21 (Klein) – D+1,
FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,
FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,
GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,
HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,
ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,
IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,
IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,
IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,
IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,
IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,
IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,
ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,
MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,
MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,
MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,
MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,
MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,
MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,
MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,
MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,
MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,
NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,
NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,
NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,
NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,
NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,
NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,
NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,
NC-04 (Price) – D+8,
NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,
OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,
OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,
OH-18 (Space) – R+7,
OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,
OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,
PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,
PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,
RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,
RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,
TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,
TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,
TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,
TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,
TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,
TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,
TX-29 (Green) – D+8,
VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,
VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,
WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,
WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,
WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,
WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,
WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,
WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,
WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,
WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,
15 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:
AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,
CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,
CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,
IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,
MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,
NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,
NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,
NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,
NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,
NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,
NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,
NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,
PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,
PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,
PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,
5 Democratic held Districts have rumoured GOP Party candidates:
KS-03 (Moore) – R+3,
LA-03 (Melancon) – R+12,
NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,
PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,
PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,
152 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:
AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,
AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,
AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,
CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,
CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,
CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,
CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,
CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,
CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,
CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,
CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,
CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,
CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,
CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,
CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,
CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,
CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,
CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,
CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,
CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,
CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,
CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,
CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,
CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,
CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,
CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,
CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,
CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,
CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,
CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,
CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,
GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,
GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,
GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,
GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,
GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,
HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,
IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,
IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,
IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,
IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,
IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,
IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,
IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,
IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,
IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,
IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,
IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,
IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,
IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,
KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,
KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,
ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,
MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,
MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,
MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,
MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,
MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,
MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,
MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,
MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,
MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,
MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,
MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,
MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,
MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,
MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,
MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,
MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,
MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,
MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,
MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,
MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,
MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,
MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,
MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,
MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,
MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,
MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,
MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,
NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,
NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,
NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,
NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,
NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,
NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,
NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,
NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,
NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,
NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,
NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,
NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,
NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,
NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,
NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,
NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,
NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,
NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,
NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,
NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,
NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,
NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,
NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,
NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,
NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,
NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,
NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,
NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,
NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,
NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,
NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,
NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,
ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,
OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,
OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,
OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,
OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,
OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,
OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,
OH-17 (Ryan OPEN) – D+12,
OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,
OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,
OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,
PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,
PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,
PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,
PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,
PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,
SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,
SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,
TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,
TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,
TX-09 (Green) – D+22,
TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,
TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,
TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,
TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,
TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,
TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,
TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,
UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,
VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,
VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,
VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,
VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,
VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,
WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,
WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,
WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,
WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,
WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,
So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 263 districts. Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 15 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 5 districts with rumoured candidates.
Whilst they are behind us numerically they have more in ours than we have in theirs.
They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.
They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, West Virginia and Wyoming (we have 15 such states).
They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont (we have 7 such states).
Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.
Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.
More updates soon.
In a “now for something completely different” moment, I decided to redistrict a state in such away where all districts would be maximally competitive. Indiana is ideal for this since it was extremely close in the last election and does not have large enough minority populations to invoke the VRA.
Without further ado:
I used the town totals from the back of this data set to split Lake and LaPorte counties. For the other split counties, notably Marion and Hamilton, I just came up with reasonable numbers for what I wanted the split to be, figuring it would be relatively easy to adjust the lines to make it a reality.
Estimates of margins of victory and political analysis
District 1 (Blue): Obama by 3500. Hammond and Terre Haute are balanced against some conservative Indianapolis suburbs. Open seat.
District 2 (Green): Obama by 4900. Loses Michigan City and gain some Conservative territory to the East, but retains its South Bend base assuring Donnelly’s relatively easy reelection.
District 3 (Purple): McCain by 700, the only one he wins. This Fort Wayne based district now gains some Democratic turf in Muncie and Anderson. Souder had challenging races in his old district, so would presumably draw even stronger challenges here.
District 4 (Red): Obama by 5800. Gary and Lake County weigh against a broad swath of conservative turf, setting up a battle royale of Visclosky verses Buyer. Theoretically the most Democratic district, but the estimates are a bit sketchy for some of the splits.
District 5 (Gold): Obama 1400. Some Democratic turf near the lake and Tippecanoe County weigh against the conservative interior, most notably deep red Kosciuskco. Open seat.
District 6 (Turquoise): Obama by 3300. Some of the more Democratic parts of Marion weigh against Republican rural areas and suburbs. Carson will need to convince enough of those folks that it’s okay to send a Muslim to congress that Indianapolis can carry the day.
District 7 (Gray): Obama by 4200. A good urban suburban mix. Burton will need to convince those urban voters that his golf habit won’t prevent him from representing them.
District 8 (Lavender): Obama by 3400. This district is slight more Democratic than the old Eighth, since it picks up Monroe county. Blue Dog Ellsworth should have no trouble.
District 9 (Cyan): Obama by 2600. I would think that moderate Democrat Hill would have the advantage over the ultra conservative Pence, who may prefer to run in the Sixth, but Hill has never won by particularly large margins, so who knows.
When Ellen Tauscher announced she was headed for the State Department it seemed there would be no shortage of Democrats running to replace her in this safe district, including California’s Lt. Gov, John Garamendi, who ducked out of the race for governor when he got no traction and decided not to contest Republican held CA-03. Recently though, CNN’s Campbell Brown (bleck!) interviewed a candidate I hadn’t heard anything about until now, and after watching the clip I walked away impressed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Anthony Woods is impressive for many reasons. Raised by a single mother, he went on to serve his country in two tours in Iraq, receive an education at Harvard and a Master’s degree from the Kennedy School of Government. He was a co-recipient of the Robert F. Kennedy Public Service Award and organized missions to help rebuild hurricane-ravaged New Orleans. Hell, he spent a summer bicycling across the country to raise money for Habitat for Humanity. But all that wasn’t good enough for his government. Woods wanted to serve his country on a third tour of Iraq, but was discharged simply because he is gay.
Woods comes off as a very polished speaker, and he clearly knows from his interview with Brown how to avoid putting his foot in his mouth. What’s more, the guy is well rounded, having worked as an economic policy advisor, giving him credibility on what is probably always the number one issue in a campaign. Personally though, I’m excited about the possibility of sending a victim of DADT to Congress to give the LGBT community a voice and a face there for this unjust policy that Obama has, frankly, failed us on. What’s more, Woods would be the first black-LGBT person elected to Congress and could potentially work to build bridges and initiate dialogue between two communities that don’t always see eye to eye.
The iceing on the cake??? Woods is a self-described progressive Democrat. He’s a clear underdog in this race with plenty of big names and established politicians, but Woods has a lot of personal qualities that hint at the possibility of an upset. Clearly, he’s someone we need to watch.
Public Policy Polling (6/9-10, registered voters):
Jim Doyle (D-inc): 40
Scott Walker (R): 48
Undecided: 12Jim Doyle (D-inc): 41
Mark Neumann (R): 42
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.1%)
No diggity doubt about it: these are the worst poll numbers we’ve seen for two-term Dem Gov. Jim Doyle so far this cycle. An early March poll from the Republican firm POS and a Research 2000 poll released last week both had Doyle in the high 40s and ahead of his GOP foes. SSP friend and PPP guru Tom Jensen pops open the hoods of both his poll and R2K’s to tease out the source of disagreement between the two polls:
Where they go in different directions is among Republicans and independents. We find virtually no Republicans- just 6%- approving of the job Doyle is doing while they find 23% looking on him favorably. And while they find only 51% of independents with an unfavorable opinion of him, we find 69% in disapproval of his job performance.
Without a great deal of public polling available from Wisconsin, it’s difficult to say who’s right and who needs an oil change. However, it’s worth noting, as Tom does, that SUSA’s latest polling of the state lines up much more closely to PPP’s findings than it does to R2K’s latest offering.
RaceTracker: WI-Gov
Suck:
Rep. Roy Blunt’s path to the Republican nomination in Missouri’s Senate race got clearer last week, and it could become crystal-clear soon.
Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman appears increasingly less likely to run against Blunt, and she acknowledged Monday that she is looking at a possible campaign for Blunt’s open House seat as an alternative.
Steelman said shortly after Sen. Kit Bond’s (R-Mo.) retirement announcement in January that she was leaning toward entering the Senate race, and for a while, it was a foregone conclusion.
But after unleashing a string of Blunt criticisms and opening an exploratory committee in April, she has grown quieter and begun evaluating other options. …
“I am always willing to fight for what I believe in, but I would certainly prefer to do it without further destruction to our party,” Steelman said, adding: “I want to find a positive avenue to move our party forward.”
I was really rooting for some hot wingnut-on-wingnut action here, but alas. The fact that Steelman herself is talking to The Hill about this suggests it’s just about over.
RaceTracker: MO-Sen
(Hat tip: the incomparable Political Wire)