Month: September 2009

UPDATE: Chris Norby, the Current Board of Supervisors member will run for the 72nd, instead of Clerk-Recorder. (H/tOCRegister)

UPDATE 2: Placentia Councilman Scott Nelson, Former Placentia Councilman and wife of Former Senate GOP Leader Dick Ackerman, Linda Ackerman are either planning on running or expressed interest.

I was planning on making this apart of the other diaries to come on Assembly races, but because of Mike DuVall’s latest resignation after it is known that he is another idiotic family values republican who pulled a Sanford. Even Lynn Daucher, the last assemblywoman from my home city, was moderate on Abortion (Hmm, always the women in the GOP, with the pro-choice sentiments?)

Now for the district:

Basically, it covers most of North OC, including Placentia, La Habra, Brea, part of Fullerton and Anaheim..and Yorba Linda. There is hope, we can win here if we try hard to get stand behind John MacMurray elected. The only obstacle is Yorba Linda, with its very slanted registration status makes it the sole decider on who becomes an Assemblyperson. It is also the least GOP district in Orange County, with only 43.2% Republican, 33.8% Democratic while just about 19% are Decline to State.

The issue, like President Obama’s campaign: The Independents. They can swing this district blue if we can get a strong message and alot of campaign donations. Fullerton is DEM-friendly, where McCain won by less than a 1,000 votes! Anaheim is, along with La Habra (Shout out to Councilwoman Rose Espinosa!). Brea and Placentia are GOP-favored, but are small to not make much difference. Then..Yorba Linda. Yes, the same Yorba Linda where Richard Nixon’s Presidential library is, where over 50% of voters are Republican, and Democrats narrowly beat the Independents. The issues must be on the Economy, Health Care and Education. Stick it to the voters, how rude the GOP is ( like a certain congressman shouting crap at tonight’s state of the union address, and Rahm gets the last laugh) But anti-reformers are also here, thanks to a recent townhall by Rep. Gary “Dirty” Miller (R-Diamond Bar). The idea is a simple one: Unite. Unite moderate Republicans (yes, they’re still alive here.) who are socially moderate, fiscally conservative and moderate Democrats who are hesitant about the Public Option. Better than a Zell Miller Democrat (if i can say that), but not necessarily a Blue Dog either. Maybe he can stylize himself as a “Bi-Partisan Democrat” or something. Only time will tell..

Current Challengers:

Democratic:

John MacMurray, a teacher from La Habra

Republican:

Chris Norby, Current Member of the Board of Supervisors

Possibly Brea City Councilman Marty Simonoff, who lost to DuVall in the primary 61%-39%

Possibly Placentia Councilman Scott Nelson

Possibly Former Placentia Councilman Scott Brady

Possibly Linda Ackerman, wife of former GOP Senate Leader Dick Ackerman

Possibly City of Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru

I’ll expand on this a bit later, but for now let’s just stand behind John MacMurray.

It seems that the GOP has found an honest-to-gosh state Senator to take on Harry Reid next year. After signaling his interest in the race all the way back in May, state Sen. Mark Amodei of Carson City, who’s term-limited out of office next year, has launched his campaign for U.S. Senate. From the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

Amodei today announced he will join the field of challengers seeking to oust U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., from his job of 24 years.

“I’d rather run against Harry Reid than every other Democrat in the state,” Amodei said during an announcement from the 16th floor of the World Market Center in downtown Las Vegas, overlooking the Strip skyline. […]

Amodei’s Republican opponents are expected to make hay criticizing him for votes in the state Legislature in support of some tax increases.

“The biggest challenge for any candidate is can you get out of your own tribe’s primary,” Amodei said during a low-key, jovial announcement.

In other words, Amodei may run into some problems with the teabagging base, despite being, according to Nevada political commentator Jon Ralston, “one of the smartest, canniest and, yes, funniest members to grace the rarely hallowed halls in the capital”. That base will certainly have a smorgasbord of options for their pick against Reid, though. In addition to Amodei, other Republican candidates expected to run include ex-Nevada GOP chair Sue Lowden, former SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian and ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (the Club For Growth’s ’06 favorite).

RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen

That’s what Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman would like you to believe. Hoffman, as you know, is running to the right of socially moderate GOPer Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens in the special election to replace John McHugh (who one of these days may actually get to serve as Army Secretary). Hoffman’s inked a top-tier GOP polling firm for his campaign, which is a pretty solid tea leaf that he’s serious about running a real campaign. Here’s his first publicly-released poll:

McLaughlin & Associates (8/25-26, likely voters):

Bill Owens (D): 20

Dede Scozzafava (R): 30

Doug Hoffman (C): 19

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Those are pretty remarkable numbers — especially the 20% figure for Owens. (Surely, Owens suffers from a severe case of “Some Dude” syndrome, but that’s a pretty low baseline for a Democrat to be starting at in an Obama district.) Whether or not Hoffman’s candidacy is the deciding factor in this race remains to be seen, but one thing seems probable: he can’t be ignored when handicapping this race.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-23

• CO-Sen: The NRSC got its sort-of-top-tier challenger to Michael Bennet in the Colorado Senate race: former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton filed to form an exploratory committee and launched her campaign website, suggesting that the exploratory period will be a brief one. Norton’s never been elected on her own (just while joined to popular Gov. Bill Owens), but, unlike the rest of the GOP field, she’s at least known statewide.

• CT-Sen, AR-Sen: Chris Dodd finally made his decision about which Senate committee to chair, and he opted to return to Banking, instead of continuing at HELP where he shepherded through health care reform legislation in Ted Kennedy’s absence. He still has a lot on his plate; he’ll be focusing on bolstering financial services regulations and creating a new banking consumer protection agency (all stuff that would seem less likely to happen if Tim Johnson took over Banking). The WaPo says that all signs point to Tom Harkin of Iowa, #2 on HELP, ditching his coveted Agriculture chair to take over HELP. This means the Agriculture chair is likely to fall to Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (bypassing a few other more senior Senators with better chairs), who, while not from a big farm state, is facing a difficult re-election and will benefit from the profile and money that come from a chair.

• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon campaign released an internal poll taken by Anzalone Liszt that’s getting a little stale (taken in mid-May, long before Melancon announced), but that shows Melancon in striking distance. The head-to-head has David Vitter beating Melancon 47-37 (and Melancon winning the bogus “after hearing positive info” vote 49-41). The good news is that Vitter’s re-elect number is down to 39%, with 45% preferring someone new. Melancon has 35/13 favorables.

• TX-Sen: Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst sent a letter to supporters that he’s running for re-election in 2010. While he may be the initial odds-on favorite to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Senate, I wouldn’t take this to mean he’s not running in the Senate special election — since he doesn’t need to give up his seat to run and he’d probably like to keep being Lt. Gov. if he loses the election, and there’s also still a possibility that KBH doesn’t resign after all, if she senses the gubernatorial primary heading south on her. (H/t DTM,B!)

• AK-Gov: No surprise here, but Democratic former state House minority leader and 2008 House candidate Ethan Berkowitz filed his candidacy papers today. He’ll likely face off against Sean Parnell, who inherited the office after Sarah Palin’s re$ignation, but first he’ll need to survive a primary against state Sen. Hollis French and Bob Poe. (Parnell will also need to survive a primary against state Rep. John Harris.)

• MA-Gov: Tim Cahill picked a strange day to make his announcement, on a day when everyone is fixated on the Massachusetts Senate race instead, but today he made official what has long been suspected: he’s running for Governor. The Dem-turned-Independent state Treasurer has a $3 million warchest, giving him a big edge over incumbent Dem Deval Patrick, who has $464K (of course, if Christy Mihos wins the GOP primary, he can put all his expenses on his own tab). Polls that have included Cahill have shown him running neck-and-neck with Patrick, although Cahill is running against tradition — there has apparently never been an Independent elected to statewide office in Massachusetts.

• MN-Gov: I’ve completely lost track of how many people are now running for Minnesota Governor — let’s just say it’s a number somewhere between 10 and 800 — but one more guy got in the race on Labor Day: state Rep. Tom Rukavina, for the DFL. Rukavina is from the town of Virginia in the rural but very pro-union Iron Range.

• OR-Gov: While the Dem side of the Oregon Governor’s race is narrowing, the GOP side keeps growing: former state Senator John Lim from Portland’s eastern suburbs said he’d get in. Lim is best-known for losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden (with a whopping 34% of the vote).

• SC-Gov: While it’s unclear whether “calls for resignation” on Mark Sanford’s part will ever turn into a tangible move for impeachment or just some pre-emptive ass-covering by state Republicans so it looked like they tried, those calls are getting louder. The state’s House Speaker, Bobby Harrell, made the call yesterday, and now there’s talk of a letter with the signatures of at least 60 House GOPers (out of 72, and almost half the entire House) calling on Sanford to step down.

• VT-Gov: As we reported yesterday, Vermont Auditor Tom Salmon did in fact follow through on his decision to switch to from the Democrats to the Republican Party. However, Salmon sounds likely to run again for Auditor, saying there’s a “10% chance” he’ll run for Governor instead. Salmon said that he’d support Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie if Dubie were to run for Governor, and wouldn’t challenge him in a primary. There’s been no word from Dubie, though, on what he plans to do.

• FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson… well, let me try to be kind here and say that he courageously ignores all that conventional wisdom about who and who not to piss off. He’s picking a fight with his hometown paper, the Orlando Sentinel, referring to them in a fundraising e-mail as “a trashy tabloid that dresses up bias and gossip as news.”

• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz may have decided against a run in his current home district, the 24th, but he’s holding a fundraiser on behalf of Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, one of the three GOPers seeking the nod to go against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.

• IL-10: Bob Dold is running for the GOP nomination in the 10th District, joining state Rep. Beth Coulson and rich guys Dick Green and Bill Cadigan. Bob Dold is a lawyer who also owns a pest control business. In keeping with district’s lean, Bob Dold says that Bob Dold is fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

• NE-02: Jim Esch, who’s coming off two back-to-back losses to GOP Rep. Lee Terry, switched his party affiliation to “independent” last week, but said yesterday that he has no plans to seek elected office at any level in the future. Esch defended his decision to the Omaha World-Herald: “I feel a little hypocritical when I go to Democratic parties and say, ‘I’m a Democrat’ when I don’t believe in the party.” (J)

Meanwhile, across town, state Sen. Tom White (who’s apparently still a Democrat) officially launched his campaign against Terry today.

• PA-03: Suddenly there’s a backlog of challengers to Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, the Dem freshman in this R+3 district. Republican Meadville businessman Paul Huber, who ran a heating equipment company and served on a local medical center board, filed campaign paperwork. AG’s office investigator Elaine Surma is already in the race for the GOP, and former Erie County Solicitor John Onorato sounds likely to run.

• PA-06: Here’s a likely minor, but certainly interesting, challenge to Doug Pike (who seems to have the establishment support locked down) in the Democratic primary in the open seat race in the 6th. Manan Trivedi is a Reading native born to Indian immigrants; he is an Iraq vet and a primary care physician. He formally announced his campaign yesterday.

• Redistricting: Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita has gone off the deep end in anticipation of the next round of redistricting in Indiana: he wants to make it a felony to consider politics in the redistricting process. Um… considering that Rokita is a Republican and that Republicans are likely to control the redistricting process post-2010, I don’t quite get it. (And neither do Republican legislators, who are telling him to shut up.)

• Votes: The Hill compiles a list of 23 Democrats who have indicated opposition to “the health care plan moving through the House.” (Nancy Pelosi can afford to lose up to 38 votes.) It’s unclear what “opposition” means, and the rationale isn’t always the same (Eric Massa, for instance, opposes it, but only because he’s stuck in single-payer mode), but it’s an interesting list, generally of the vulnerable and/or the hardcore Blue Doggish (although New Jersey’s John Adler strangely stands out like a sore thumb).

Things are starting to take shape in North Carolina; Elaine Marshall, the state’s Secretary of State and first woman elected to statewide office, looks like she will become the first top-tier Democratic challenger to Richard Burr.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall filed paperwork Tuesday to create a campaign committee to run for the U.S. Senate next year.

“We’ll have a more formal announcement in the future,” said Thomas Mills, a consultant for Marshall. “We were feeling we just needed to get started in moving forward.”

Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis is the only announced Democratic candidate so far. Charismatic former state Senator Cal Cunningham seems likely to get in as well, while former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker and Rep. Bob Etheridge are still considering it.

I’m very pleased to let you know that Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, candidate for U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania, will join us at Senate Guru tomorrow, Thursday September 10, at 5pm Eastern Time for a live blog session.  I’m sure he will update us on how his campaign is going, discuss a variety of issues, offer his thoughts in response to tonight’s Presidential address on health care reform, and, of course, field your questions.

I hope you will be able to join us for the first candidate liveblog session of the 2010 cycle at Senate Guru.  Bring your questions for Congressman Sestak and invite your political junkie friends to join us.  (And, if you’re really excited for the conversation, support Congressman Sestak with a contribution via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.)

In the meantime, enjoy reading Congressman Sestak’s diary from yesterday at Daily Kos – here’s an excerpt:

This week, join me in signing a petition, which calls on our congressional leaders, Republicans and Democrats in the House and the Senate, to hold an up or down roll call vote on the public option.

Right now, 14,000 people are losing their health care coverage every day because our costs are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, too many politicians in Washington, who seem to be ignoring the lessons from Wall Street, would rather leave our health insurance reform up to the insurance companies.  No matter what the final bill looks like, we deserve to know how our Representatives and Senators will vote on a public option – up or down!

On the web:

Joe Sestak for Senate

Senate Guru

Senate Guru Facebook Group

Senate Guru’s Expand the Map! ActBlue Page

Rasmussen (9/8, likely Democratic voters):

Martha Coakley (D): 38

Stephen Lynch (D): 11

Ed Markey (D): 10

Michael Capuano (D): 7

John Tierney (D): 3

Some other candidate: 5

Not sure: 25

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen acts quickly to get a look at the Democratic primary field in the Massachusetts Senate race, now that it’s clear that heavyweights Joe Kennedy II and Marty Meehan won’t be running. AG Martha Coakley, the only statewide official and the only woman in the race, has a big edge. She leads four Boston-area House members — each of whom represents 1/10th of the state, and most of whom pull in about 1/10th of the respondents.

Lots of other developments in the Bay State today. First and foremost, rumors were flying earlier today that Christy Mihos, the Independent-turned-Republican former convenience store czar and Turnpike Authority board member who’s currently running for Governor, would switch over to the Senate race, giving the GOP a top-tier candidate (albeit still a long shot for a federal office, in this dark-blue state). However, Mihos a few hours ago confirmed that he’s staying in the Governor’s race, where polls have shown him competitive.

Politico also rounds up a number of other odds and ends. One more Democrat is getting into the mix: Alan Khazei, the wealthy founder of City Year, a community service program for 20somethings. He has the potential to self-fund and might be able to tap into the youth vote. Martha Coakley, not exactly in a surprise, is getting EMILY’s List’s endorsement, which well help a lot with her fundraising (her one big disadvantage is she starts almost from scratch on money, while the House members all have huge stockpiles).

Finally, the Massachusetts legislature is poised to move on the legislation needed to create a temporary interim appointment until the special election can be held. Reportedly, legislation may be on the floor by day’s end. One other name has surfaced for the temporary appointment: Paul Kirk, former DNC chair and current head of the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation.

Greetings, this is my first post here. Glad to meet you all. Being a Californian, i decided to post my $0.02 about the races here, once i finish the Assembly, next is the Senate. As a High School Sophomore, i’ve always been interested in these races, so if i do not read any replies about updates and what not, i have schoolwork.:

CA-01:

Incumbent: Wesley Chesboro (D-Eureka)

Registration:

45.9% DEM

30.3% GOP

14.6% DTS (Decline to State)

Counties: Del Norte, Humboldt, Trinity, Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Margin between Democrat and Republic registered voters is almost the same as the Decline to State voters. Safe Democrat.

CA-02:

Incumbent: Jim Nielsen (R-Gerber)

Registration:

46.3% GOP

36.7% DEM

11.6% DTS

Counties: Butte (part), Colusa, Glenn, Modoc, Shasta, Siskyou, Sutter, Tehama, Yolo (part)

Analysis: Nielsen is a newcomer, but got elected with 65.4%!. Safe Republican.

CA-03:

Incumbent: Dan Logue (R-Chico)

Registration:

43.0% GOP

36.3% DEM

14.2% DTS

Counties: Butte (Some from the 2nd district, most here), Lassen, Nevada, Placer (part), Plumas, Sierra, Yuba

Analysis:: Logue is a newbie. He got elected with a safe, but still ‘not-so’ with 55.6%. Could be interesting, but looks pretty safe for Logue. Margin between DEM and GOP registered voters is 7.6%, so there could be some action in a district that gave John McCain just under a majority with 49.8%. Republican Favored.

CA-04:

Incumbent: Ted Gaines (R-Roseville)

Registration:

45.4% GOP

35.7% DEM

13.9% DTS

Counties: Alpine, El Dorado (most), Sacramento (less than a sliver), Placer (rest in the 3rd District).

Analysis: Unopposed in 2008, pretty much safe. Safe Republican.

CA-05:

Incumbent: Roger Niello (R-Fair Oaks)

Registration:

43.4% GOP

38.7% DEM

13.2% DTS

Counties: Placer (part), Sacramento (part)

Analysis: Niello is term-limited, Obama won this district with 51.1%, while Niello’s opponent had to deal with a third-party challenger, Niello won with 54%, while the DEM got only 38%, while the third-party got about 8%, and Niello is no moderate. Depending on who runs here, this is a must-win seat. Lean Republican.

CA-06:

Incumbent: Jarred Huffman (D-San Rafael)

Registration:

53.6% DEM

21.2% GOP

20.7% DTS

Counties: Marin, Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-07:

Incumbent: Noreen Evans (D-Santa Rosa)

Registration:

52.6% DEM

28.9% GOP

13.3% DTS

Counties: Napa, Solano (part), Sonoma (part)

Analysis: Evans is term-limited, safe for whichever Democrat that succeeds her. Safe Democrat.

CA-08:

Incumbent: Mariko Yamada (D-Davis)

Registration:

47.6% DEM

31.1% GOP

16.0% DTS

Counties: Solano (part), Yolo (part is in the 2nd District, most is here)

Analysis: Yamada is a newcomer that won more than Obama did (66.1% compared to O’s 63.3%). Safe Democrat.

CA-09:

Incumbent: Dave Jones (D-Sacramento) Running for Insurance Commissioner

Registration:

58.1% DEM

22.5% GOP

13.5% DTS

Counties: Sacramento (mostly just the City)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-10:

Incumbent: Alyson Huber (D-El Dorado Hills)

Registration:

43.9% GOP

40.8% DEM

11.1% DTS

Counties: Sacramento (part), Amador,  El Dorado (El Dorado Hills), San Joaquin (part)

Analysis: Huber is very vulnerable. She won with only 46.7% against a no-name GOP opponent, but Obama managed to break a majority with 51.1%. We must keep this seat at all costs. Lean Democrat

CA-11:

Incumbent: Tom Torlakson (D-Antioch) Running for Superintendent of Public Instruction

Registration:

53.9% DEM

27.2% DEM

11.2% DTS

Counties: Contra Costa (part)

Analysis: As mentioned above, Torlakson will be running for SPI (a non-partisan office on the outside), if he wins (a possibility, he has to contend with State Sen. Gloria Romero, and some others), a Democrat for sure will win this. Safe Democrat.

CA-12:

Incumbent: Fiona Ma (D-San Fransisco)

Registration:

54.5% DEM

24.5% DTS

15.8% GOP

Counties: About half of SF, San Mateo (part)

Analysis: Fiona Ma, hands down, is one of my favorite legislators. She knows how to communicate via Live Webcast or Social Media. Seriously, a district with SF is automatically: Safe Democrat.

CA-13:

Incumbent: Tom Ammiano (D-San Fransisco)

Registration:

57.7% DEM

22.7% DTS

12.28% GOP

Counties: Other half of SF

Analysis: It’s San Fransisco. Safe Democrat.

CA-14:

Incumbent: Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley)

Registration:

61.1% DEM

20.7% DTS

13.1% GOP

Counties: Alameda (part), Contra Costa (part)

Analysis: First elected in 2008, unanimously. Safe Democrat.

CA-15:

Incumbent: Joan Buchanan (D-Alamo)

Registration:

44.0% GOP

38.2% DEM

12.0% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part), Contra Costa (part), Sacramento (part), San Joaquin (part)

Analysis: Now that she’s back in the Assembly, she’s gonna work alot harder if she only won with 52.3% while Obama totally got this district with 57.6%. Basically, the more conservative (!) parts of Alameda (!) and Contra Costa make the bulk of this district. Leans Democrat.

CA-16:

Incumbent: Sandre Swanson (D-Oakland)

Registration:

64.0% DEM

16.7% DTS

12.4% GOP

Counties: Alameda (Oakland, Alameda and Piedmont)

Analysis: I believe this is the most Democratic Assembly district there is. Safe Democrat.

CA-17:

Incumbent: Cathleen Galgani (D-Tracy)

Registration:

52.5% DEM

34.7% GOP

8.5% DTS

Counties: Merced, San Joaquin (part), Stanislaus (part)

Analysis: First time elected in 2006, with only 60%, come on in a district like this? Safe Democrat.

CA-18:

Incumbent: Mary Hayashi (D-Hayward)

Registration:

56.1% DEM

24.9% GOP

14.6% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-19:

Incumbent: Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo)

Registration:

51.1% DEM

27.0% GOP

17.5% DTS

Counties: San Mateo (part)

Analysis: Safe.

CA-20:

Incumbent: Alberto Torrico (D-Newark) Running for Attorney General

Registration:

48.4% DEM

27.9% GOP

19.3% DTS

Counties: Alameda (part), Santa Clara (less than 1% of San Jose and Milpitas)

Analysis: Safe.

Feel free to suggest improvements or things i missed.

First, I am not sure if this is allowed here, if not, just delete it

As one of few Republicans here, I wanted to take the opportunity to outline some of the things I fell are currently wrong with my party, and see what the other side thinks. Anyway, lets begin-

1. Get back to Reagan. People liked him. People don’t like current conservative leaders too much. Why? They can sometimes come off as offensive and mean. They are too critical of Obama, just because he’s a liberal. Even though the other side didn’t always respect our President, that doesn’t mean we can’t respect him.

2. Obama’s school speech. I think it was a great idea. Whats wrong with the President telling kids to stay and school and focus? Nothing. No one had a problem when Reagan and Bush did it, so whats the problem when Obama does it?

3. Infighting. It’s gotten alot better, but when Rush says something critical of you, ignore it. Don’t acknowledge it. Michael Steele, I’m looking at you. Also, when Rush calls your new plan to give the party a new image a Republican party re-branding and calls you out for it, you don’t cancel it. That just makes people think he is the Republican Party’s leader.

And most importantly, when you do get back in power, don’t screw up like you did last time. During the Bush years, you couldn’t tell the difference between a Democrat and Republican. Now that were out of power, suddenly were conservative? No, it don’t work that way. Liberals have always been liberal, when in power, and out. Conservatives don’t just get to be conservative when their out of power. We need to be conservative at all times.