Month: September 2009

Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43

Ken Buck (R): 37

Other: 7

Undecided: 13

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39

Ryan Frazier (R): 40

Other: 7

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Oddly, Rasmussen chose not to test the two latest entrants in this race — Democrat Andrew Romanoff, who launched his exploratory committee earlier today, and former GOP Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. If you wanna make sure that your polls gain a lot of ink in the media, it’s usually a good idea to include the names who are getting the most buzz. But, that’s enough Rasmussen criticism for a day…

These numbers are somewhat different than PPP’s findings from August. (In that poll, Bennet lead Frazier by 38-33 and Buck by 39-35.) In any case, I can’t imagine that Frazier, an Aurora city councilor, is in a stronger position than Buck. At this point, they’re still just Two Dudes.

CO-Gov:

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 39

Scott McInnis (R): 44

Other: 7

Undecided: 10

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 41

Josh Penry (R): 39

Other: 7

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Unlike the Senate poll, this snapshot is pretty close to PPP’s August poll. Pretty disturbing stuff.

RaceTracker Wiki: CO-Sen | CO-Gov

(H/T: GOPVoter)

Last year all five Iowa incumbents in the House of Representatives were re-elected by double-digit margins. The main challengers failed to win even 40 percent of the vote against Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02), as well as Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05).

I’ve long assumed that none of Iowa’s Congressional districts would be competitive in 2010. Although Republicans have put Leonard Boswell (IA-03) on their long list of House targets, several other analysts share my view that Boswell is safe for next year. To my knowledge, the only declared candidates against Boswell are the little-known Dave Funk and Pat Bertroche. Boswell’s 1996 opponent Mike Mahaffey is thinking it over too.

Isaac Wood and Larry Sabato released new House race rankings, and they included IA-03 among 47 Democratic-held districts that are “likely” to remain Democratic:

The “likely” category is reserved for those competitive races where one party has a distinct advantage over the other. Most of these races feature either strong challengers or weak incumbents, but not a combination of the two that would warrant a more competitive designation. Consider these races as a watch list which could turn into heated battle with a single misstep by an incumbent or positive fundraising report.

I could see Iowa’s third district becoming competitive, but only if the economy is in terrible shape next fall and Republicans fund a well-known candidate with a base in Polk County (the population center of the district).

I question Wood and Sabato’s decision to put Loebsack’s district in the “likely” category as well. So far right-winger Steve Rathje is definitely running against Loebsack (he narrowly lost the 2008 GOP primary for U.S. Senate). Mariannette Miller-Meeks is also considering a rematch. She’s an impressive woman, but I frankly can’t imagine this district becoming competitive in 2010. IA-02 has much stronger Democratic voting performance than IA-03, which tracks closely with the nationwide vote in presidential elections.

Iowa City-based blogger John Deeth, who’s lived in IA-02 for a long time, also thinks Loebsack is rock solid for 2010.

Share any thoughts or predictions in this thread.

P.S.: Any idea when SSP’s 2010 House race ratings will be released?

UPDATE: From Deeth’s blog:

MMM’s case (other than her admittedly interesting biography) was attacking Loebsack as a solid vote for Speaker Pelosi and the Democratic leadership — as if that was a BAD thing in a Democratic district. She also had trouble keeping her own party united behind her, with anti-choice forces within the GOP sent out late attacks and fed the rumor mill.

Only thing I can think of is that Sabato just looked at the Loebsack percentage of just a hair under 60. The Green and independent candidates account for that; in Johnson County at least MMM’s percentage almost exactly matched McCain’s, and Loebsack trailed Obama by almost exactly the third party vote.

Looks to me like Sabato just threw every 2006 and 2008 upset winner (Space, Shea-Porter, Walz, etc.) on the “Likely” list. Like I was saying even BEFORE the 2006 election, the real fluke is that Jim Leach held the seat as long as he did.

Anzalone-Liszt for Pat Quinn (8/18-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 54

Dan Hynes (D): 26

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Hynes, the state Comptroller, apparently had hoped to run for AG, but Lisa Madigan decided to stay put, foreclosing that option. So instead of going for the open Senate seat, he decided to take on an incumbent governor. Hynes currently has a bigger warchest than Quinn (around $3.5m to <$1m), and supposedly thinks he can gain the backing of the Daley machine. But Quinn is no David Paterson – despite a bruising few months spent fighting with the state legislature, he has 72% favorables and a 68% job approval (Hynes is at 56% & 61%, respectively). That makes him the rare sitting governor whose constituents don’t, it seems, hate his guts. (UPDATE: At least as far as Dem primary voters are concerned, as sulthernao points out.)

Illinois has the earliest primary in the nation, Feb. 2, 2010 – just five months away. Hynes might be able to gain more traction thanks to his financial advantage, and Quinn’s ratings are not invulnerable (just think “jobless recovery”). But Hynes, so far as I know, hasn’t released a poll to counter this one. I’ll be very curious to see if he does.

The full memo is available below the fold.

You’ll recall that Bill Hedrick (D) is challenging robotically conservative Ken Calvert (R) in the California 44th (Riverside and Orange Counties). He came surprisingly close last time, and he has a much better funded, better organized effort this time around.

In a comment several weeks ago, I questioned whether Hedrick supports the public option, based on some ambiguous wording in a campaign email. Now, on the basis of a new email, I can say that he apparently does support the public option (though admittedly there’s still a bit of wiggle room):

Last night, President Obama addressed the nation on an issue we all know is critically important: making sure every American receives quality, affordable health care. . . .

Ken Calvert’s response?  Falsehoods, fabrication and fear mongering.  Just read what he had to say:

“It’s the pathway to nationalized health care.” – Press-Enterprise

“The public option is an absolute deal killer.” – Orange County Register

Enough is enough!



My position couldn’t be more clear: I support fundamental health care reform – and I support it now!

Having Hedrick in Congress instead of Calvert would make a huge difference in terms of voting record. You can support him on Act Blue.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps (9/8-9, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (41)

Chris Christie (R): 41 (43)

Chris Daggett (I): 10 (7)

(MoE: ±4%)

Democracy Corps’ website is on the fritz for now, so I can’t link to any crosstabs right away. We’ll get you the straight dope once it’s available, though. D-Corps’ website is back up.

Rasmussen Reports (9/9, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (42)

Chris Christie (R): 46 (50)

Chris Daggett (I): 6 (-)

Undecided: 10 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is the first time that Rasmussen has actually included independent Chris Daggett in the mix, and he clocks in at a not-insignificant 6%. Rasmussen also cheekily threw in a few “Who do you trust more?” questions on taxes, “cutting” government spending, and corruption, and — surprise, surprise — found Christie in the lead in each column. Of course, no questions were asked on issues that may have played to Corzine’s strengths, but, hey, this is Rasmussen.

(In the diaries, conspiracy has more.)

UPDATE (David): One key point – among non-leaners, Christie’s lead has shrunk from +11 to +4, which is a pretty dramatic drop. Ras explains:

However, it’s worth noting that other indicators suggest that Christie’s lead might be a bit softer than the eight-point advantage indicates. Results before leaners are included show Christie up by just four points. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Christie leads by six. This suggests that the GOP campaign may be like a baseball team heading into the late innings with a lead but lacking a reliable closer. They’re happy to be ahead but can’t wait for the game to end so they can breathe again.

• FL-Sen: Today is the day we say goodbye to Mel Martinez, resigning to… well, he hasn’t figured it out yet. Martinez leaves sounding rather downbeat, having been pilloried by much of his party for his work on immigration. And today we say hello to George LeMieux, Charlie Crist’s former right-hand man and now body-double in the Senate. Interesting trivia: Kirsten Gillibrand is no longer the youngest Senator; LeMieux is a youthful 40.

• MA-Sen: The rumor du jour coming out of the Bay State is that Andy Card, the former Bush White House chief of staff, is interested in the Senate special election for the GOP. Card would be a long-shot (as would any Republican), but would at least come to the race armed with a giant Rolodex full of donors. (Wait… do people even use Rolodexes any more?)

• UT-Sen: Is Bob Bennett just ready for retirement, or is he trying to move to the left of the the gaggle of far-right primary challengers, hoping they split the wingnut vote and let him win by occupying all of the quasi-moderate Huntsman-style space in the GOP field? Either way, he took a few provocative actions yesterday, as one of only four GOPers to stand and applaud Barack Obama’s call-out of the “death panel” lie last night — which earned him the spot of Public Enemy #1 at RedState — and earlier as one of only five GOPers to vote in favor of cloture on the Cass Sunstein nomination, who currently holds the #2 spot on the list that Glenn Beck is holding in his hand.

• NY-Gov: This is a weird-ass rumor, but apparently several different sources are telling the Weekly Standard that Hillary Clinton may bag on being Secretary of State in order to run for Governor of New York. Take with… I dunno, is there something much stronger than salt? Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani was supposed to be in the middle of a power play involving remaking the leadership of the state GOP in preparation for a gubernatorial run, but seems to be losing that proxy battle, as the insufficiently-pro-Rudy Ed Cox still seems on track to take over as state GOP chair.

• TN-Gov: Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge in the GOP primary for the open gubernatorial race in Tennessee, according to his own polling, done by the Tarrance Group. Wamp has 22% of the vote, followed by Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey at 15, Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons at 14, and Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam at 12. Wamp also led the field with 22 in a poll several months ago from Southern Political Report.

• CA-11: There are already a bunch of next-to-no-names running against Jerry McNerney in the R+1 11th, but the GOP has dug up someone who’s at least one notch above that: Tony Amador, the former U.S. Marshal for the Eastern District of California under the Bush administration, giving him some sort-of-non-partisan law-and-order cred. Amador was the son of undocumented immigrants — but does that make him the kind of courageous by-the-bootstraps story that Republicans love, or unacceptable to the GOP’s rabid nativist base?

• MO-08: Here’s an appealing-sounding recruit for the Dems to go against Jo Ann Emerson: college instructor and Army vet Tommy Sowers. He served two tours in Iraq, then taught at West Point, and now teaches at Missouri University of Science and Technology. He’ll still have an uphill fight against Emerson, who hasn’t drawn tough competition since her initial 1996 election, in this district that actually went for Bill Clinton but has fallen off the cliff lately at R+15.

• SC-02: If last night were a movie, the poster would say “Starring Barack Obama, and introducing Joe Wilson!” With one over-the-top line of dialogue, Wilson was catapulted from back-bench anonymity, to front-and-center among one-dimensional cartoonish House Republican villains, right next to Michele Bachmann and Jean Schmidt. While Wilson privately apologized last night, he is refusing today to publicly apologize in the House well, and Democratic House leadership seems eager to let that slide, not wanting to get distracted from the more pressing matter of health care. However, the assault from the netroots has been merciless; Wilson’s 2010 opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller (who came within 8% of Wilson in 2008 in this R+9 district), has hit the fundraising jackpot, raising over $200K since last night according to the DCCC. (Prior to last night, Miller had $49K CoH while Wilson had $212K.) This includes $135K alone at Act Blue (hint hint). UPDATE: PPP teases that they’re going into the field tonight to poll SC-02; they’re asking for help in drafting the poll, so be sure and give them a hand.

• CA-St. Ass.: In case you were under a rock yesterday (or had a particularly aggressive work-safe web-blocker), Republican Mike Duvall resigned immediately from his state Assembly seat in northern Orange County after getting caught on an open microphone talking in lascivious detail about his sexual transactions with a oil-and-gas lobbyist. The resulting special election in AD-72 doesn’t seem likely to go to the Dems — Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby is set to run for the seat — but it’s the least hardcore part of the OC, where John McCain won only 50-47, so it’s worth paying some attention. (See californianwonder‘s diary for more.)

• House: Here’s a GOP poll that I’m sharing simply because of the sheer irrelevance of its premise: that Nancy Pelosi is the most polarizing House Speaker since Newt Gingrich. Remember that there was exactly one Speaker in between Gingrich and Pelosi. Should it be any surprise that the highly visible Pelosi is considered more polarizing than the shapeless, flavorless DeLay-puppet Dennis Hastert… or that the GOP paid good money to ascertain that?

Previous diaries

Summary:

  TX has 32 representatives, 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats

Possibly vulnerable:

 TX-10 (R)

 TX-17 (D)

 TX-23 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from AOL

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: TX-01

Location  Eastern TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AR, including Tyler  map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Louie Gohmert (R)

VoteView  362

First elected 2004

2008 margin 88-12 over an independent

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Current opponents None declare

Demographics  55th most rural (49.1%), 72nd lowest income (median = $33K), 90th most Blacks (18.9%), 17th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-02

Location  Oh, the odd shapes of TX districts!  This one mostly runs east west, from the LA border (and the Gulf) west to outer Houston.  But it also extends north a bit.  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Ted Poe (R)

VoteView  438

First elected 2004

2008 margin 89-11 over a libertarian

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 56-43

Obama margin 40-60

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   94th most Blacks (19%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-03

Location North central TX, including Plano and Garland    map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Sam Johnson (R)

VoteView  428

First elected 1991

2008 margin 60-38 over Tom Daley

2006 margin 63-35

2004 margin 86-8-6 over minor parties

Obama margin 42-57

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents No declared Democrats

Demographics  61st highest income (median = $61K), 61st fewest veterans (9.5%).

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-04

Location Northeastern TX, bordering OK and AR, including Texarkana map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Ralph Hall (R) (may retire)

VoteView  R + 21

First elected 1980

2008 margin 69-29 over Glenn Melancon

2006 margin 64-33

2004 margin 68-30

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  44th most rural (50.4%), 14th most Republican  

Assessment Hall is the oldest person in the House (born 1923).  But, even if he retires, this is solidly Republican territory.

District: TX-05

Location  Shaped like a C; the inner-top of the C is near Dallas, it goes south and then east, and also east directly from Dallas   map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Jeb Hansarling (R)

VoteView  441

First elected 2002

2008 margin 84-16 over a Libertarian

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   35th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-06

Location    Shaped sort of like a boot, with an added doodad on top, the top of the boot is south and west of Dallas, it extends south about 100 miles and then east  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative  Joe Barton (R)

VoteView 391

First elected 1984

2008 margin 62-36 over Ludwig Otto

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 40-60

Bush margin 2004 67-34

Current opponents Ludwig Otto

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-07

Location  Western outskirts of Houston  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative John Culberson (R)

VoteView  357

First elected 2000

2008 margin 56-42 over Michael Skelly

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  70th highest income (median = $58K), 66th fewest veterans (9.9%)  

Assessment Vaguely possible, but not at all likely

District: TX-08

Location The southern part of eastern TX, bordering LA   map

Cook PVI R + 25

Representative Kevin Brady (R)

VoteView  347.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin 73-25 over Kent Hargett

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 25-74

Bush margin 2004 73-28

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   45th lowest income (median = $40K), 8th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-09

Location Part of Houston and southern suburbs   map

Cook PVI D + 22

Representative  Al Green (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 2004

2008 margin 94-6 over a libertarian

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 72-27

Obama margin 77-23

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Current opponents None declared

Demographics    28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), 54th most Blacks (37%), 64th most Latinos (32.8%), 12th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly 11% Asians), 38th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-10

Location A long, narrow district running from Austin almost to Houston   map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Michael McCaul (R)

VoteView  343

First elected 2004

2008 margin 54-43 over Larry Joe Doherty

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin 79-15-6 against minor party candidates

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents A primary; then Jack McDonald is considering it and has already raised over $600K.

Demographics   77th highest income (median = $52K), 85th most Latinos (18.7%).

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; McDonald should go for it!

District: TX-11

Location  Western TX, bordering (a little) on NM, including Odessa, Midland, and Brownwood  map

Cook PVI R + 28

Representative Michael Conaway (R)

VoteView 413

First elected 2004

2008 margin 88-12 over a libertarian

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 77-22

Obama margin 24-75

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Current opponents None declared

Demographics    60th lowest income (median = $33K), 50th most Latinos (29.6%), 3rd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-12

Location Part of Ft. Worth, and western and northern suburbs   map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Kay Granger (R)

VoteView  358

First elected 1996

2008 margin 68-31 over Tracey Smith

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 72-28

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics  63rd most Latinos (23.7%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-13

Location Northern panhandle, bordering OK and NM   map

Cook PVI R + 29

Representative Mac Thorberry (R)

VoteView 393

First elected 1994

2008 margin 78-22 over Roger Waun

2006 margin 74-23

2004 margin 92-8 against a libertarian

Obama margin 23-76

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   72nd lowest income (median = $34K), 2nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-14

Location  Most of the Gulf Coast of TX   map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Ron Paul (R)

VoteView  444

First elected 1996

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 33-66

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics  60th most Latinos (24.9%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-15

Location Southern TX, between the Gulf and Mexico, but bordering neither   map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Ruben Hinojosa (D)

VoteView  164

First elected 1996

2008 margin 66-32 over Eddie Zamora

2006 margin 62-24-15 against two Republicans

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   6th lowest income (median = $27K), 59th fewest veterans (9.3%), 18th fewest Whites (19.7%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 2nd most Latinos (77.6%) (only TX-16 is higher), fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (1%)

Assessment Increasingly safe

District: TX-16

Location Westernmost TX, bordering NM and Mexico, including El Paso   map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Silvestre Reyes (D)

VoteView  177

First elected 1996

2008 margin 82-10 against an independent

2006 margin 79-21 against a libertarian

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 44-57

Current opponents Tim Besco

Demographics  43rd lowest income (median = $31K), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), most Latinos (77.7%)  

Assessment Safe

District: TX-17

Location Another TX district with twists, but it’s south of Dallas and centers on Waco map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Chet Edwards (D)

VoteView  201

First elected 1990

2008 margin 53-45 over Rob Curnock  

2006 margin 58-40

2004 margin 51-47

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Current opponents Rob Curnock is running again, as are other Republicans

Demographics 19th most Republican  

Assessment Can’t be considered totally safe, but not that vulnerable

District: TX-18

Location  Shaped sort of like a Q, in Houston and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 24

Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

VoteView  17

First elected 1994

2008 margin 77-20 over John Faulk

2006 margin 77-19

2004 margin 89-6-5 against minor party candidates

Obama margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 28-72

Current opponents John Faulk is running again, as is Tex Christopher

Demographics 40th lowest income (median = $31K), 41st fewest veterans (8.3%), 17th fewest Whites (19.7%), 32nd most Blacks (40.1%), 43rd most Latinos (35.6%), 35th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-19

Location  Another weird shape…like a W with extra squiggles.  Borders NM in the west, then jiggles around eventually almost reaching the OK border; includes Lubbock  map

Cook PVI R + 26

Representative Randy Neugebauer (R)

VoteView  420

First elected 2003

2008 margin 72-25 over Dwight Fullingim

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 58-40

Obama margin 27-72

Bush margin 2004 78-23

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 53rd most Latinos (29%), 5th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-20

Location  San Antonio and a odd shaped area around it   map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Charlie Gonzalez (D)

VoteView  117.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 72-25 over Robert Litoff

2006 margin 87-13 against a libertarian

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 45-55

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 51st lowest income (median = $32K), 31st fewest Whites (23.4%), 9th most Latinos (67.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-21

Location Mostly west of San Antonio, but also north and east of San Antonio, towards Austin map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Lamar Smith (R)

VoteView  351

First elected 1986

2008 margin 80-20 against a libertarian

2006 margin 60-25-9 (two Democrats)

2004 margin 61-30

Obama margin 40-58

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Current opponents Lainey Melnick

Demographics   25th most veterans (16.8%).

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-22

Location Oh, I dunno…. a bowtie with one strand loose? Mostly south of Houston map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Pete Olson (R)

VoteView  241

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-45 over Nick Lampson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  48th highest income (median = $58K), 42nd most Republican  

Assessment long shot

District: TX-23

Location Western TX, except for El Paso, borders Mexico and NM   map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Ciro Rodriguez (D)

VoteView  191

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-42 over Lyle Larson

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Francesco Canseco, maybe others

Demographics  74th lowest income (median = $34K), 47th fewest Whites (30%), 13th most Latinos (65.1%).  

Assessment Not completely safe, although Rodriguez has raised almost $500K.

District: TX-24

Location  Shaped like a T between Dallas and Ft. Worth   map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Kenny Marchant (R)

VoteView  411

First elected 2004

2008 margin 56-41 over Tom Love

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   47th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-25

Location Austin and southern and eastern suburbs   map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Lloyd Doggett (D)

VoteView 122

First elected 1994

2008 margin 66-30 over George Morovich

2006 margin 67-26

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   94th fewest veterans (10.8%), 98th fewest Whites (52.9%), 45th most Latinos (33.9%)

Assessment safe

District: TX-26

Location A square with two sticks, running north from Ft. Worth to the OK border map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Michael Burgess (R)

VoteView  369

First elected 2002

2008 margin 60-36 over Ken Leach

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 66-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents Neil Durrance (errr, someone tell him to fix the pic on his website to show his face)

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment

District: TX-27

Location  The southern Gulf coast   map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Solomon Ortiz (D)

VoteView 175  

First elected 1982

2008 margin 58-38 over Willie Vaden

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 63-35

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents James Duerr

Demographics   41st lowest income (median = $31K), 34th fewest Whites (27.6%), 8th most Latinos (68.1%)

Assessment Pretty safe

District: TX-28

Location Southern TX along the Mexican border   map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Henry Cuellar (D)

VoteView 216

First elected 2004

2008 margin 69-29 over Jim Fish

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 54-46

Obama margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics   17th lowest income (median = $29K), 49th fewest veterans (8.7%), 20th fewest Whites (20.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 3rd most Latinos (77.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-29

Location If you can describe this shape, you’re good! East of Houston map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Gene Green (D)

VoteView  173.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 75-24 over Eric Story

2006 margin 74-24

2004 margin 94-6 against a libertarian.

Obama margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents Frank Mazzapica

Demographics   48th lowest income (median = $32K), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 10th most Latinos (66.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-30

Location Dallas and southern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

VoteView 60

First elected 1992

2008 margin 83-16 over Fred Wood

2006 margin 80-18

2004 margin 93-7 against a libertarian

Obama margin 82-18

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   72nd lowest income ($34K), 45th fewest veterans (8.4%), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 30th most Blacks (41.4%), 43rd most Latinos (34.2%), 26th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-31

Location North and west of Austin map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Carter (R)

VoteView  361

First elected 2002

2008 margin 60-37 over Brian Ruiz

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 67-34

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   29th most veterans (16.4%)

Assessment long shot

District: TX-32

Location   Shaped like most of a circle, near Dallas  map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Pete Sessions (R)

VoteView  406

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-41 over Eric Roberson

2006 margin 56-41

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Steve Love

Demographics 53rd fewest veterans (8.9%), 90th fewest Whites (50.1%), 40th most Latinos (36.2%)  

Assessment Safe

First Rasmussen has Christie up 46-38 but check out the commentary. He sounds worried.

“However, it’s worth noting that other indicators suggest that Christie’s lead might be a bit softer than the eight-point advantage indicates. Results before leaners are included show Christie up by just four points. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Christie leads by six. This suggests that the GOP campaign may be like a baseball team heading into the late innings with a lead but lacking a reliable closer. They’re happy to be ahead but can’t wait for the game to end so they can breathe again.”

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

And Democracy Corps?

Christie leads 41-38 and the internals are similar.

“Corzine’s standing has improved over the past month, with his favorable rating ticking up from 32 percent to 36 percent. Christie’s favorability rating remains at 1:1, 33 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable.”

http://www.democracycorps.com/…

Corzine has to move from 38% but there is still hope.

As it turns out, Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) is seeing immediate, tangible consequences to his now-infamous heckle during President Obama’s address before congress last night.

Proof that one man’s loss is another man’s gain: in the hours following South Carolina’s GOP Rep. Joe Wilson’s “You lie!” outburst during President Barack Obama’s joint address to Congress Wednesday evening, his 2010 Democratic opponent has raised about $100,000 from 3,000 people, according to a spokeswoman for the House Democrats’ campaign operation.

Full article: http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/…

This incident could have just turned Rob Miller into this cycle’s Elwyn Tinklenberg. However, while Michele Bachmann’s loony tune Hardball appearance occurred in the lead-up to Election Day, Wilson’s fall from grace is happening over a year out from November 2010, which seemingly would give him ample time to recover, particularly in a conservative state like South Carolina.

Even so, given his fairly narrow margin of victory last year, Wilson clearly – and totally unnecessarily – has offered up red meat for a campaign that may have otherwise floundered, and given Democrats a reason to be fired up in an otherwise uninspiring midterm election season.