Month: September 2009

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Florida can be considered as three regions distinct in culture, economics, and voting patterns. Northern Florida is deep red; the I-4 corridor is light red; and the Miami metropolis is moderately blue.

Until recently, Florida was far different from what it looks like today. It was the quintessential Southern state, and it was fairly empty in term of people. Florida’s voting record reflected its southern roots. Until Eisenhower won it twice, Florida was part of the Solid South. In 1964, LBJ ran well behind his national average, due to his support for civil rights. The next election, George Wallace took 29% of the vote. Then in 1976, Jimmy Carter resurrected the Solid South for the last time, winning Florida by 5%. That was also the last time a Democrat ran above the national average in Florida.

Northern Florida and the Panhandle

Florida still is a Southern state to some extent. This is especially true in northern Florida and the panhandle, which borders Alabama and Georgia. Northern Florida is very conservative; it is not uncommon to see a Republican taking 70% or more of the vote in a number of counties there.

As the picture indicates, northern Florida constituted the place in which McCain performed best. There were no counties in which Obama won over 70% of the vote, although he comes fairly close in majority-black Gadsden County (where he won 69.1% of the vote).

Gadsden County provides a neat encapsulation of all that makes northern Florida tough going for Democrats. Like much of the Deep South, voting is racially polarized. If a county is like Gadsden, it votes blue; if, on the other hand, a county does not have many blacks, it is usually deep red. There are not many independents in this region; voting habits are deeply entrenched. The “average” voter and the “average” county is a hard-core Republican.

The result is something like this:

This is northern Florida in the 2008 presidential election.

There are three noticeable blue areas (out of five Democratic counties). One is Gadsden County, which is majority black. The other two are homes of major public universities: Tallahassee hosts Florida A&M University and Florida State University, while Alachua County is home to the University of Florida.

This is the Democratic “base,” such as it is. Blacks and college students have historically been the most faithful Democrats, and in northern Florida they are the only Democrats.

A final note before moving on to central Florida. Although Jacksonville most always votes Republican, there is a substantial black minority within it that, unfortunately, has had historically poor turn-out. A strong Democrat can mobilize these voters and essentially erase Republican margins in this county. Barack Obama was extremely successful at doing so, which is why the red circle is relatively small in the map. On the other hand, John Kerry was not as successful; he lost Jacksonville by 17 points, as the picture below indicates.



–Inoljt, http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…

Ex-Rep. Marty Meehan, who has the biggest war chest of any of the potential contenders for the special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat, has announced that he won’t run:

Meehan is currently the chancellor of UMass-Lowell.  He told Anderson he wants to finish the job he started there three years ago.

“While I am not ruling out the possibility of seeking public office in the future, I am fortunate to be leading a remarkable university that I love, and I just dont want to walk away,” Meehan wrote in a statement released Tuesday afternoon.

Now let’s see what happens with the $5 million that Meehan has been sitting on since leaving the House.

Meanwhile, Rep. Michael Capuano, who represents Cambridge and part of Boston in MA-08, pulled the papers to run for the Senate today.

An advisor briefed on Capuano’s intentions said the six-term Democratic congressman planned to draw nomination papers on Tuesday and will make a formal announcement about his intentions next week.

The dean of the state’s House delegation, Ed Markey, has not taken that step yet, but issued a statement over the weekend that, with Joe Kennedy II’s decision not to run, he is seriously considering the race.

• IL-Sen: The Tom Dart boomlet didn’t seem to go anywhere; the attention-grabbing Cook County Sheriff announced that, contrary to rumors, he wasn’t going to run in the Democratic Senate primary and would instead stand for re-election.

• LA-Sen: David Vitter is wasting no time in trying to define Charlie Melancon with new TV spots, saying “Life sure is swell when you’re a liberal-loving, Obama-endorsing congressman like Charlie Melancon.” The good news is: this means everyone recognizes this is a highly competitive race; conventional wisdom says define your opponent if he’s strong, ignore him if he’s weak so you don’t inadvertently give him free PR.

• MA-Sen: Rep. Stephen Lynch, the most conservative member of the Massachusetts House delegation and a former Ironworker, has been trying to lock down the slot as organized labor’s candidate in the upcoming Senate special election, but he was booed at a health care rally and not even invited to a labor breakfast over the weekend, suggesting that his skepticism over the public option could be hurting him among the potential backers he most needs. Campaign Diairies has a handy compare-and-contrast chart of key votes among the Mass. delegation; interestingly, Lynch was also the only one to vote in favor of the Peru free trade agreement, another potential black mark for labor.

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: There’s something almost Shakesperean (or Freudian?) about this story: father and son Reid are both looking at each other as dragging down each others’ poltiical fortunes. Rory sees Harry’s presence on the ballot as hampering his potential gubernatorial run, while Harry sees Rory’s run as hurting his senate re-election bid.

• TX-Sen: There’s been increasing chatter about a run for the Democratic Republican Senate nomination in the possibly-upcoming special election by Dallas mayor Tom Leppert. He’d start out at a financial and name rec disadvantage compared with Bill White and John Sharp, though, having just been in office for half a term.

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett may be in for some tough sledding in the GOP primary in the Utah Senate race, but he can count on the support of his fellow Senator Orrin Hatch, who gave Bennett a full-throated endorsement last week. Buried in the story, though, is something more troubling: Bennett managed to finish in last place at a Utah County GOP straw poll, where AG Mark Shurtleff won with 42% and ultra-right weirdo Cherilyn Eager got 32%. Bennett is also challenging the legality of Shurtleff’s fundraising; Bennett alleges commingling of federal and state accounts at Shurtleff’s Wasatch Shotgun Blast fundraising picnic (Utah has very lax limits on state fundraising).  

• AZ-Gov: A poll for Arizona Capital Times has, buried in the fine print, some very alarming numbers for appointed GOP Gov. Jan Brewer. They don’t poll her on head-to-heads, but she has perilously low re-elects: 18% say they’ll vote for her, 46% say they’ll vote for someone else, and 36% are undecided. More evidence that the anti-governor tide is high on both sides of the aisle. Sensing her vulnerability (following a budget standoff in which the conservative Brewer found herself to the left of her legislature), primary opponents are considering the race, including state Treasurer Dean Martin and polarizing Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

• GA-Gov: There are now seven viable candidates running for the GOP nomination for Georgia Governor, as state Sen. Jack Jeff Chapman, who represents Brunswick on the coast, got in the race. The little-known Chapman has ruffled some feathers fighting overdevelopment along the coast.

• NH-Gov: John DiStaso points to a couple GOP challengers sniffing out the race against Democratic incumbent Gov. John Lynch, one of the few gubernatorial races left in the country that falls in either “Safe” category. Leading the way is behind-the-scenes conservative activist Karen Testerman, founder of Cornerstone Family Research, who apparently feels ready to step in front of the curtain. Another rumored name is state Sen. Chuck Morse. Little-known businessman Jack Kimball is the only confirmed candidate.

• VA-Gov: We’ve had a deluge of polls in Virginia in the last week, some showing some a tightening race, some not. The newest offering from SurveyUSA definitely falls into the “not” column, giving Republican AG Bob McDonnell a 54-42 lead over Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds (the same margin as their previous poll). Crosstabs show that Deeds has pulled into the lead in northern Virginia, but is still way behind in the rest of the state.

• VT-Gov: Here’s someone actually considering switching from the Dems to the GOP: state Auditor Tom Salmon, whose father was Democratic governor in the 1970s and who defeated incumbent GOPer Randy Brock in 2006. Republicans are trying to spin this as a referendum on local Dems being too liberal, but there may be some garden-variety ambition behind this: Salmon says he plans to run for re-election, but may also be considering a run for Governor if Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie doesn’t run, and this seems an easier way to get into the general election than through the already-crowded Dem field.

• AK-AL: Rep. Don Young, who recently drew a strong Democratic challenger in the form of state Rep. Harry Crawford, will also have to run the gauntlet of a strong primary opponent too. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who got nearly 10% of the vote in his independent campaign for governor in 2006 and since then has seen his profile increase via his anti-Sarah Palin blogging efforts, said he’ll run against Young as a GOPer. Crawford gets good notices from local observers, using words like “old-school,” “blue-collar,” “backwoods,” and “gritty” to describe him, which may be a better matchup against the crusty former tugboat captain than the more polished Ethan Berkowitz was last year.

• IL-07: Rep. Danny Davis made it official; he’s out of the House in 2010. He’ll be running for Cook County Board President instead. The 7th is D+35, so spare us the hand-wringing.

• IL-14: This could take us up to five Republicans vying to take back the 14th from Democratic Rep. Bill Foster: state Senator Randy Hultgren is now exploring the race. This could get more than a little inconvenient for crown prince Ethan Hastert, the presumed GOP frontrunner: remember that a bitter primary between dairy magnate Jim Oberweis and st. Sen. Chris Lauzen put a crimp on GOP chances in the 2008 special election here that Foster won.

• LA-02: I don’t know if there was anyone out there fretting that we weren’t going to get a top-tier Democratic candidate to go up against Rep. Joe Cao, but if there was, they can rest easy. State Sen. Cedric Richmond, who didn’t make it into the runoff in the primary against ex-Rep. Bill Jefferson last year, announced he’ll run again in 2010. State Rep. Juan LaFonta and state Sen. Cheryl Gray are also likely Dem candidates in the D+25 seat.

• LA-03: Roll Call takes another look at the many players jostling to take over for Charlie Melancon in the now R+12 3rd. Dept. of Natural Resources head Scott Angelle gets top billing, but nobody is sure whether he’d run as a Democrat or Republican. On the Dem side, state Rep. Damon Baldone, state Rep. Fred Mills, Ascension Parish sheriff Jeff Wiley, and attorney Ravi Sangisetty also get mentions, while other prominent GOPers in the mix are Lafourche Parish sheriff Craig Webre, state Rep. Nickie Monica, former state House speaker Hunt Downer, Plaquemines Parish president Billy Nungesser Jr., and former state Senate candidate Jeff Landry. Complicating the candidates’ decision to run is winning may be a pretty lame prize, seeing that the 3rd may be on the district elimination docket following the 2010 census, with parts of it possibly being subsumed into the nearby 2nd.

• MO-04: Sensing vulnerability or at least a possible retirement, a third Republican has piled on, against 33-year Rep. Ike Skelton. James Scholz, president of a computer security company, has filed to run. Skelton looks like he’s going to stay and fight, though; he has five fundraisers scheduled for the next two months, including one with Steny Hoyer.

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy may get a real challenge for once, from Kevin Cramer, the Republican chair of the state’s Public Service Commission (which regulates utilities). Cramer lost two races to Pomeroy in the 1990s, but this time he points to an NRCC-commissioned internal poll that has him within 4 points of Pomeroy, 46-42.

• NC-11: Local physician Daniel Eichenbaum has been in contact with the NRCC about a run against Heath Shuler. His biggest selling point: if he wins, he promises to stay for only one term. (That ought to get the NRCC interested, seeing as how they just love open seats.)

• SC-03: A bit more winnowing of the field in the dark-red 3rd, as businessman and engineer Stuart Carpenter pulled the plug on his campaign and endorsed state Rep. Rex Rice.

• WA-09: Better-than-usual GOP prospects started eyeing Adam Smith’s seat early this year, speculating that a special election might be in the offing if Smith (an early Obama endorser) got an administration job. That never happened, and now one of them, moderate state Rep. Tom Campbell (not to be confused with the moderate GOPer running for California governor), pulled out of his bid last week, sensing a complete lack of interest from the NRCC. Nevertheless, Pierce County Councilor Dick Muri remains in the race.

• Redistricting: Remember the new independent redistricting commission that was created to take responsibility for California’s legislative districts? Now there’s an initiative afoot to add jurisdiction for congressional districts to the panel as well. The initiative also includes some vague language about preserving “communities of interest,” which, depending on how it’s interpreted, could result in some smoothing-out of California’s remarkably convoluted boundaries and thus some more competitive districts.

Yes, this is my first diary about my home state and my second diary not involving redistricting. I have noticed many of you (including myself) believe that Democrats will gain seats in the California State Senate, State Assembly and in U.S House Representation. Even though the Democrats are falling nationally, they should not be falling in California. If the Republicans cannot reach out to Hispanics (a Survey USA poll on July 25th showed that 73% of California Hispanics approve of Obama’s job,) Democrats should have a good year in California, especially southern California. It should take an election or two to have Californians vote more Democratic at a statewide level. So a 50% for McCain win in a State Senate district would probably rank Lean Republican, not a Toss Up. Here is an analysis of the first ten State Senate Districts up for reelection (in 2010, only the even numbered districts are up for reelection.) I will post a diary about the other ten (eventually.) Overall, Democrats should gain 1-2 seats. Here is a link to the map of the California State Senate districts.

http://www.sen.ca.gov/~newsen/…

This link is for the California State Assembly Districts

http://www.legislature.ca.gov/…

State Senate District 2 Pat Wiggins (D)

We are lucky that her district is not trending Republican anytime soon. Here is a basic overview of Wiggins: July 13th, State Senate passes bill introduced by Wiggins to help rid Sonoma County of domestic violence.  On June 22nd, the State Senate passed a Wiggins bill that supports expanding Marine Sanctuaries off the coast of California. On June 3rd, the State Senate passed two Wiggins bills that expanded solar power opportunities and production. We should not lose her until 2014. Her district voted 69% for Obama. The demographics as of 2000 are 5% Black, 7% Asian and 16% Hispanic.

Status is Safe Democrat.

State Senate District 4 Sam Aanestad (R)

Aanestad’s website says that his main priorities are protecting Northern California water and rural health care. He will not fight for those issues for long. He is term limited out in 2010.  Two Republicans are lined up to take his seat. They are Rick Keene and Doug LaMalfa. Rick Keene is the former Assemblyman from the 3rd district and he lives in Chico. He supports low taxes and is a big supporter of North State water rights (since the water is shared with other parts of the state and reservoirs are low, water rights are a big issue in North State. ) Keene also promises to fight for “Conservative values.” Those include deregulation and getting rid of environmental burdens. I would not vote for Keene. LaMalfa seems to be a favorite. His website is more organized because he has the endorsements page up while Keene’s says “endorsements coming soon.” LaMalfa endorsements are influential and they include most of the sheriffs and district attorneys of the 4th district. Also, the State Senate Republican Leader Dennis Hollingsworth and the Assistant Leader Mimi Walters support LaMalfa. LaMalfa was in the State Assembly and represented the 2nd district. He is against high taxes but he is inconsistent on his views like some “Libertarians.” His website says quote, “Doug LaMalfa’s firm beliefs are that government should do no harm and that limited government means government should do only what people cannot do for themselves, in the most efficient manner possible,” unquote. Yet his website also says quote, “Doug helped lead Northern California efforts to protect marriage on both Proposition 22 and Proposition 8 that reaffirmed marriage is only between one man and one woman,” unquote. He can campaign for the government’s right to prevent people from marrying who they love as much as he wants. He should at least remove the line about supporting small government off his site! Something people CAN do for themselves is marry so why should LaMalfa interfere? Besides an endorsements page, his volunteer page is more developed and he has people sign up for email alerts, unlike Keene’s website. That leads me to believe that LaMalfa will win because he has better organization. No clear Democrat has emerged yet. His district voted 54% for McCain. The demographics are 4% Asian and 12% Hispanic. Status is Safe Republican.

State Senate District 6 Darrel Steinberg (D)

Steinberg is the President Pro Tempore of the State Senate. He succeeded Don Perata who carried a concealed gun due to death threats from anti gun control advocates. Steinberg hit the news for filing a lawsuit against Schwarzenegger because some of the budget cuts may be unconstitutional. He will be President Pro Tempore until he reaches term limits. Obama won 64% of the vote in his district. Demographics are 14% Black, 15% Asian and 18% Hispanic. Status is Safe Democrat.

State Senate District 8 Leland Yee (D)

Yee has a spotty background but at least he works hard in the State Senate. On August 17th, the Assembly approved SB 242 which Yee authored. SB 242 says that people cannot be denied a job based on the language they speak. Yee should not worry about a Republican challenge. He may worry about Tom Ammiano, a State Assemblyman from San Francisco. Ammiano was elected in 2008 but he is active in San Francisco. He ran for mayor in 1999 and was a San Francisco Supervisor. Ammiano is very Liberal, even for San Francisco. I expect that Ammiano may pass on this seat to wait for 2014, when Yee and he are term limited out of their seats. If he ran for 2010, I do not expect him to win. The reason is that Yee’s district is more working class and not as ultra Liberal as Ammiano’s Assembly district. Ammiano will definitely run to the left so I do not see him winning. Yee appears safe because he has a large presence in the area. He was elected to the State Assembly in 2002. Obama won 76% of the vote here. Demographics are 16% Hispanic and 35% Asian. Status is Safe Democrat.

State Senate District 10 Ellen Corbett (D)

Corbett is fighting hard to prevent a NUMMI plant in Fremont from being closed. On August 21st, she rallied with workers at the plant. No Republican has a shot at winning this district because it is too Democratic. She has had a presence in this district for more than 10 years. With no looming baggage, she should have an easy ride through 2010. Obama won 71% of the vote here. Demographics are 7% Black, 21% Hispanic and 32% Asian. Status is Safe Democrat.

State Senate District 12 Jeff Denham (R) Term Limited Out!

If Democrats want to gain a 2/3 majority, they have to pick up seats such as Denham’s. With a Republican incumbent gone, Democrats have a great shot at it with a 13% registration advantage and 46% Hispanic population as of 2000. State Assemblyman from Modesto Tom Berryhill (R) might look at the race. He does not live in it but as we learned from carpetbagger Tom McClintock, people can just move to a suitable district and run. If I were him, I would probably stay in his safe district containing Republican parts of Modesto and the Sierras. He is term limited out in 2012. Possible Democratic candidates include Anna Caballero from Salinas. She is not term limited out until 2012. She said is interested in running but has not formerly announced yet. Her background includes chairing the Youth Violence Prevention Committee and representing unions in a strike. Other candidates include Luis Alejo (D), an attorney from Watsonville. Jamie De La Cruz (D) will run if Caballero does not run. Francisco Dominguez (D) from Gilroy has worked on a school board for 12 years. He will run if Caballero decides not to run. He said, “I’m very frustrated, just like other folks, about what’s happening in Sacramento – not being able to resolve the budget and deliver to residents,” he said. “There needs to be more cooperation in the legislature. My style is to resolve conflict.” Rick Rivas (D) was Caballero’s campaign manager in 2006 so I assume he will run if Caballero decides not to run. The last candidate is Eugenia Sanchez (D) who is the mayor of Hollister and served on Hollister’s School Board. It is too early to tell who will win if Caballero runs. If someone from the Central Valley jumps in, that person could sweep the Central Valley while the other candidates split the Coastal area. If Caballero runs, the other candidates may defer to her. If they do not, I still believe she should win. The reason is that all the other candidates are Hispanic; they will split the Hispanic vote while Caballero sweeps the white vote. A Hispanic candidate would have a better chance to win this district because he or she could generate a large Hispanic turnout. The primary could damage the Democrats but it looks like the Democrats should win. Obama won 58% of the vote here. The Demographics are 46% Hispanic and 42% White. Status is Lean Democrat.

58%

State Senate District 14 Dave Cogdill (R)

Cogdill was the Senate Republican Leader from April 2008 to February, 2009. He seems to be in touch with his district because he supports cleaner air quality, low taxes and agricultural groups. One bill he proposed would cut red tape for agricultural vehicles but also protect the environment. He appears to be Conservative on most issues but moderate on others. He joined Darrel Steinberg and Schwarzenegger to campaign for the May 19th budget propositions. Since he is term limited out in 2014, he should be reelected in 2010. McCain won 56% of the vote. Demographics are 28% Hispanic and 5% Asian. Status is Safe Republican.

State Senate District 16 Dean Florez (D)

Florez appears to be sitting in the light of power. He became Senate Majority Leader in 2008 and will run for Lieutenant Governor in 2010. His grandparents are farm workers and he fights for farm worker’s rights in the Senate. One main priority of Florez’s is speaking out against using the Central Valley as a big dump for waste. Other accomplishments include sponsoring SB 700 which made farmers follow the Clean Air Act and supporting bills to make farm worker vans safer.  Possible candidates for replacement include Danny Gilmore (R) of the 30th Assembly district and Juan Arambula (I) of the 31st Assembly district which covers Hispanic areas in the southern Central Valley. Gilmore won against Fran Florez (D), the mother of Dean Florez in 2008. Gilmore was a former marine. He may run because he has a shaky hold on the 30th district. I expect due to the district’s large Hispanic population, a Hispanic Democrat will win in 2010. Even though it should be a Republican year, Gilmore was the Joseph Cao of California. He was Cao because he won an upset in a heavily Democratic district that will go back to normal by 2010. Arambula used to be a Democrat but switched parties in June 2009. Seeing an open seat, he may leap for the seat and because he is Hispanic, I see him winning. Obama won 59% of the vote here. Demographics are 63% Hispanic, 7% Black, and 6% Asian. Status is Likely Democrat.

State Senate District 18 Roy Ashburn (R)

Republicans may be dwindling in California. They still have this area as a stronghold. The 18th district contains Republican parts of Kern, Tulare, Inyo and San Bernardino counties. This totals up to a McCain win with 61% of the vote. Even though Ashburn represents the most Conservative district in California, he is fairly moderate. During the budget crisis, he voted with the Democrats to increase taxes to help the economy. His constituents were furious so his political career should be finished. Voters will not have a chance to prove it because Ashburn is term limited. A possible candidate to replace him is Republican Jean Fuller. She represents the 32nd State Assembly District which is centered in Bakersfield. She was the former Superintendent of Bakersfield schools until she became a state legislator in 2006. Like Ashburn, she is not a Tom McClintock Conservative. She supports allocating more money for education. Besides Fuller, Republican Bill Maze will seek the seat and so will Democrat Carter Pope. Maze formerly represented California’s 34th State Assembly District which covers Tulare County and some rural areas in Inyo County. In the Assembly, he was on numerous committees such as the Select Committee for Foster Care. Maze appears more Conservative than Fuller and he represented the 34th district for six years. The race should be a duel between Kern County and Tulare County.  Maze has a better chance to win because he is more Conservative and he is more entrenched. I expect the race will split about 53%-47% or even closer. Democrat Carter Pope appears to have no legislative experience or political experience so he is should lose. The demographics for this district are 27% Hispanic. Status is Safe Republican.

State Senate District 20 Alex Padilla (D)

Like San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom, Padilla is a young rising star. Apparently, Newsom agrees with me because he appointed Padilla to chair his gubernatorial campaign calling Padilla, “One of the brightest and most accomplished rising stars in the country.” Even if Newsom’s poll numbers depict his as a falling star, Padilla is not falling. The Hispanic Business magazine named him one of America’s most influential Hispanics. He spearheaded a tobacco tax bill last August and is trying now to get a fire protection bill passed. The San Gabriel Mountains near his district are on fire, why am I not surprised?  Other projects include starting the Children’s Museum of Los Angeles. Since he was elected in 2006, he sponsored 29 bills.  Would he be LA Mayor Villaraigosa’s replacement when Villaraigosa retires? Anyway, he should not worry about reelection. Obama won 72% of the vote here and the demographics are 61% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 23% White. Status is Safe Democrat.  

New York City has a big primary coming up in a week. Two key city-wide races, and a very important borough-wide race in Manhattan, are all on the ballot, and they’re all open seats. There’s little chance of a Republican winning any of these races, so the primary is what counts.

The major races & candidates are:

Public Advocate (ombudsman, first-in-line to succeed mayor)

• Bill de Blasio

• Eric Gioia

• Mark Green

• Norman Siegel

Comptroller

• Melinda Katz

• John Liu

• David Weprin

• David Yassky

Manhattan District Attorney

• Richard Aborn

• Leslie Crocker Snyder

• Cyrus Vance

Green (who was Public Advocate in the 1990s) probably has the edge in that race just thanks to his name recognition, though he certainly doesn’t have it in the bag – and if he fails to get 40% in the first round, the race will move to a Sept. 29th runoff. The Comptroller and DA races are totally wide open, though there is no runoff in the DA contest since that’s a county-level race, rather than a city race.

I still haven’t made up my mind about who I’m voting for, so I’m very interested to hear the community’s thoughts, especially those living in the city. Who are your favorites?

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/31-9/2):

Dan Mongiardo (D): 41

Trey Grayson (R): 45

Jack Conway (D): 40

Trey Grayson (R): 46

Dan Mongiardo (D): 42

Rand Paul (R): 37

Jack Conway (D): 41

Rand Paul (R): 37

(MoE: ±4%)

Primaries:

Dan Mongiardo (D): 37

Jack Conway (D): 30

Other: 15

Trey Grayson (R): 40

Rand Paul (R): 25

Other: 18

(MoE: ±5%)

These numbers (both the primary and the general) line up very closely with the results that SurveyUSA produced back in August. Mongiardo and Grayson are still on top of their respective primaries, but Rand Paul’s early strength continues to surprise. The DSCC would badly like to see Paul somehow pull off a miracle in the GOP primary, but it’s pretty difficult to imagine his libertarian message grabbing hold of the Republican base. Certainly, it’s even harder to imagine Paul winning the endorsement of many lower-ticket GOP officeholders throughout the state.

As it is right now, though, it looks like John Cornyn has a lot to be pleased with now that he’s replaced a dead-in-the-water incumbent with the GOP’s best player on their Kentucky bench.

RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen

From the AP:

Former Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy II, the eldest son of Robert F. Kennedy, announced Monday he would not run for the U.S. Senate seat held for nearly 50 years by his late uncle, Edward M. Kennedy. …

The decision is expected to widen the field of announced candidates for Kennedy’s seat. It became vacant Aug. 25, when the senator died of brain cancer at age 77.

Three veteran Massachusetts congressmen – Reps. Michael Capuano, Edward J. Markey and John Tierney – have said they are considering campaigns but would not run against a member of the Kennedy family. The senator’s widow, Vicki, had previously ruled out a campaign.

Now the floodgates will likely open. I just hope Marty Meehan decides to stay put. On the other side of the aisle, former Lt. Gov. and 2006 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kerry Healey has also said she won’t run.

(More from safi in the diaries.)

Former Rep. Joe Kennedy, son of RFK and nephew of Teddy, has decides not to run for his uncle’s senate seat.

http://m.www.yahoo.com/_ylt=Ai…

After Senator Kennedy passed away and even before that when I think we knew he only had so much time left, Joe’s name has been mentioned a lot in connection with this seat. For many he seemed the logical heir apparent to this seat and some MA pols, most notably Marty Meehan, said they wouldn’t run against Kennedy.

Now, presumably, the floodgates open. Rep. Lynch and AG Coakley are already in the race. Reps. Tierney and Capuano seem like the best candidates among the House Reps.