Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 55
Jon Barela (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Heinrich leads among Hispanics 68-24, who make up 35% of this sample. These are very nice numbers. Heinrich has over $1 million cash-on-hand, while Barela has under $400K.
Mark Critz (D): 41 (41)
Tim Burns (R): 43 (45)
Undecided: 14 (13)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (5/3-5, likely voters, 2/15-17 in parens):
IA-Sen:
Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (35)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 49 (56)
Undecided: 11 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)
These are nice numbers for Roxanne Conlin, who is still unknown to 20% of likely vteros. However, R2K’s polling (including their first poll of this race for Daily Kos) has really bounced around a lot. In October of last year, it was Grassley +12, then Grassley +21 in February, and now Grassley +9. I’m not really sure there’s an explanation for this gyration. (And as far as I understand, R2K used the same methodology for both clients – and you can see that the question wording is the same, too.)
IA-Gov:
Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (38)
Terry Branstad (R): 48 (54)
Undecided: 11 (8)Chet Culver (D-inc): 44 (41)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 40 (38)
Undecided: 16 (21)Chet Culver (D-inc): 46 (48)
Rod Roberts (R): 36 (26)
Undecided: 18 (26)
(MoE: ±4%)
Again, a lot of bouncing in the toplines: Branstad +5 to Branstad +16 to Brandstad +7. The latest survey is good news for Culver, sure, but that’s a bit like saying Dukakis did better than Mondale – the numbers still suck.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/3-5, likely voters, 3/29-31 in parens):
John McCain (R-inc): 48 (52)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 36 (37)
Other: 6
Undecided: 10 (11)
(MoE: ±5%)Rodney Glassman (D): 35 (33)
John McCain (R-inc): 48 (52)
Undecided: 17 (15)Rodney Glassman (D): 42 (37)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 43 (48)
Undecided: 15 (15)
(MoE: ±4%)
All around, you have got to love those weak numbers for Mac The Knife! McCain’s favorables have taken a dip from 47-46 in late March to 43-52 in this poll. What’s especially remarkable about all of these numbers is that, of all the Senate and gubernatorial match-ups, McCain is the only Republican to earn double-digit support from Hispanic voters… and just barely so at a mere 10% of the vote! (Recall that 40% of Arizona Hispanics voted for McCain’s Presidential bid in 2008.)
The gube numbers:
Jan Brewer (R): 32
Buz Mills (R): 14
Dean Martin (R): 13
John Munger (R): 5
Undecided: 36
(MoE: ±5%)Terry Goddard (D): 48
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 10Terry Goddard (D): 47
Dean Martin (R): 35
Undecided: 18Terry Goddard (D): 48
Buz Mills (R): 34
Undecided: 18Terry Goddard (D): 47
John Munger (R): 30
Undecided: 23
Remember when Jan Brewer was considered dead in the water in the Republican primary thanks to her apostasy on taxes? (One Rasmussen poll even had her at 10%!) Looks like that was nothing that some good ol’ fashioned racism couldn’t cure, although she’s still given a big assist from the fractured nature of the Republican primary field… and “Undecided” is currently beating her by four points.
Note that the general election numbers are extremely close to PPP’s take on this race in late April. One difference, though, is that PPP gave Brewer a more favorable performance among Hispanics. In their poll, Goddard was beating her by 71-25 among Hispanic voters, while R2K gives Goddard an even more commanding 74-9 lead in that demographic.
By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/
In the aftermath of the 2008 presidential election, the New York Times famously posted a map depicting county-by-county changes from the 2004 election. A different version of this map is below:
What is remarkable about this map is the evenness of the Democratic movement – a 9.72% shift to them from 2004. With the exception of a diagonal patch of Appalachia, President Barack Obama improved throughout the country. It did not matter if a county was located in Utah or California, whether it belonged to a dense city or a thinly populated farm, or whether it was poor or rich – almost every county still voted more Democratic than it did in 2004.
If one moves to a statewide basis, the shift is still fairly uniform.
Compared to the county-by-county map, this map lends itself more easily to analysis.
More maps below.
Once again, Mr. Obama does well everywhere except for Appalachia. His improvement, however, is noticeably less in the traditionally Democratic Northeast. The South is strangely divided between the friendly Atlantic coast and the hostile inland states (with the exception of Texas). There is also a fairly apparent split between east and west: in the latter, Obama’s improvements are almost uniformly strong. The movement east is far more variable.
In addition, the color of several states can be explained through local factors. Clinton-loving Arkansas appears dark red, while Senator John McCain’s home state Arizona stands out amidst its dark blue neighbors. Obama’s home states Hawaii and Illinois also appear dark blue, but Governor Sarah Palin’s Alaska stays more Republican. Massachusetts, home state of Senator John Kerry, does not shift Democratic by much; Indiana, where Obama’s campaign led a massive turn-out effort, shifts massively.
In playing around with these maps I also took a look at the 1988 presidential election. In that election, Democratic candidate Mike Dukakis lost by 7.73% to Vice President George W. Bush. Because Mr. Obama won by 7.26%, the nation voted 14.99% more Democratic than in 1988. Here is Obama’s performance compared to that of Mr. Dukakis:
What this map reveals is far less uniformity. Compared to the previous ones, this is much more a depiction of structural political changes.
Perhaps most obviously, much of South Central America swings against Obama, illustrating the decades-long Republican shift of this region. Dukakis still was able to win a number of white Democratic counties in places like Louisiana and Oklahoma. Today those places have largely abandoned the party.
There are other patterns. A number of Plains states, such as Kansas and the Dakotas, have very little or no movement to Obama. He actually does worse in Iowa. This reflects a relatively strong Dukakis performance in rural America, which was in the midst of an agricultural crisis in 1988.
Most interestingly, one can see the 2008 electoral map in the map; the dark blue states almost all voted Democratic in 2008. Democratic-voting states today tended to shift most to Obama; Republican-voting states today tended to move less. Only two states that voted for Obama haven’t shifted strongly Democratic since 1988: Iowa and Minnesota. Out of all the states John McCain won, on the other hand, only Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina shifted strongly Democratic – and Democrats came quite close in Georgia. A similar trend has been observed in previous posts.
I am not certain if this pattern suggests electoral polarization: Democrats improve greatly in a number of 1988 Republican-leaning states (such as New Jersey or North Carolina), and Republicans do the opposite in places like West Virginia or Iowa. Instead, it appears to make sense for a candidate to win a state he or she does best in. Thus, this pattern seems to illustrate the electoral coalition Democrats have carved since 1988.
The farther one looks back, it seems, the more a map reveals.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is re-evaluating whether to continue to spend money in this month’s Hawaii special election, Chairman Chris Van Hollen told POLITICO Thursday. […]
Asked if the committee would continue to spend money in the 1st District special election, Van Hollen responded: “We’ll have to re-evaluate based on the situation. The Democrats haven’t been able to come together and resolve this issue. Right now, it’s extremely difficult. So right now, we’ll have to re-evaluate that.” […]
“I think you’ve got a very difficult situation. In that special election you’ve got three candidates – two of them Democrats,” said Van Hollen. “It’s very clear they’re splitting the vote. We’ve worked very hard to get that resolved, and unfortunately the Hawaii Democratic Party has not been able to sort that out. So that is what it is. All I can say about that is – regardless of what happens – right now, it’s extremely challenging, given the lineup. So it would be a different situation in November, obviously.”
It sounds like the DCCC is ready to kick the can on this race all the way to November, more or less letting the chips fall where they may for the special election on May 22nd. That’s a pretty huge development for a party that hasn’t lost one of their own seats in a special election in nearly a decade, but these are obviously exceptional circumstances.
Meanwhile, Independent Women’s Voice, a conservative 501 (c)(4) organization with ties to Lynne Cheney, is spending $200,000 on attack ads against Democrat Ed Case during the home stretch.
This is a redistricting plan based on geographical compactness, population deviation of less than 5,000, and communities of interest (except for one seat). VRA is ignored, as are current residences of Reps. (There’s a deep bench in California).
CA-1:blue
California deserves a real NorCal district with a representative from the North Coast. At the same time, neutralizing highly Republican, quickly growing Redding is a good idea. Combining liberal Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, and more rural Sonoma Counties with moderate Del Norte, Siskiyou, and Trinity, as well as more conservative Tehama and Shasta creates a D+3 district, from an older D+14 one, which in this part of the country should be likely Dem. It’s a very, very rural district, with Redding as the population center, although the areas lacks Democrats, and a liberal like Mike Thompson, who lives out of the district, could still win here. 80% White and 11% Hispanic, this district is actually highly similar to Oregon in race and partisan breakdown.
CA-2: green
So what’s the parallel to the Democratic 1st? A Republican 2nd, much of McClintock and Herger’s old districts, either could run here. Herger is more likely to retire due to age, so I’ll give it to McClintock as the old CA-4, remaining R+9. From very conservative rugged territory in Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra Counties, as well as Nevada and Placer, the district goes west into the Valley foothills in Butte, taking in Paradise and Oroville, as well as E. Tehama and all of Yuba. Sacramento Suburbs in the district include Auburn, Rocklin, Loomis, and Roseville. The North Tahoe area, including Truckee, is also included. 81% White, 10% Hispanic.
CA-3: purple
This is actually Wally Herger’s CA-2, gone from R+10 to D+5. Herger’s home city of Chico, a college town, is kept along with rural Colusa, Sutter, and Glenn. However, adding in Thompson’s old Yolo Co., with college town Davis and West Sacramento, a small piece of Lungren’s old 3rd, and some of N. Sacramento from Matsui’s 5th gives this district the Democratic lean we desire. Lincoln from the old 4th is also in the district. 61% White, 21% Hispanic, and a Democratic PICKUP D+1
CA-4: red
A tad of Sacramento, suburbs, exurbs, and Tahoe. I drive from one end of the district to the other every year to go skiing. This is Lungren’s old 3rd. Part of Sacramento from the 5th, Sac. Suburbs from like Folsom and Citrus Hts from Lungren’s old 3rd, and El Dorado Co., home of fast growing exurbs and mountainous Tahoe area, from the old 4th. Obama won by 2,000 votes, so it’s R+3, but with Lungren’s vulnerability in a similar district, also an R+3, it’s still a Toss Up, due to the addition of unfamiliar territory and higher turnout in 2012. Lungren doesn’t even live in it. 77% White, 10% Hispanic. D+1.5
CA-5: yellow
This old Matsui D+18 Sacramento district is now a much of Sacramento Co. D+10 district, although still maj-min. at 49W, 18H, 15A, 12B. Lungren actually lives here, I believe, but Matsui’s still safe. Rural Amador, Calaveras, and Alpine Cos. are also in this district, from Lungren’s old district.
CA-6: turqoise
Yes, it’s new, and it combines Bay Area with Central Valley. However, Fairfield and Vacaville are arguably as much Sacramento as they are Bay Area. The N. Half of Solano, from Garamendi and Miller’s districts, contains these cities. A piece of Lungren’s is in here, too. Half of Stockton is from Cardoza’s (no racial gerrymandering here). The rest: other half of Stockton, Lodi, and rural areas, comes from Garamendi’s D+13 district, making his new one D+4, which should still be Likely D, Lean D in open years. 47W, 27H, 12A.
CA-7: gray
So what’s in Mike Thompson’s new district, if he runs where he actually resides? Well, liberal Bay Area Napa Co. from the 1st, Benicia (a former state capital), Vallejo, and Suisun City in the North Bay, which are from Miller and Garamendi’s districts, Miller’s Pittsburg, and Garamendi’s Antioch and Oakley. McNerney’s Brentwood and Tracy (a Central Valley city attached to the old 11th to help Pombo, although it now leans left) finishes up the district. McNerney could run here, as he’s out of a district, his old D+2 becoming D+14. 52W, 22H, 11A, 10B.
CA-8: periwinkle
There’s nothing we can do to Lynn Woolsey’s district to make it closer to D+5 or so, so this old D+24 district remains the same PVI. Gone are the coastal areas of Sonoma, adding the city of Sonoma from the old 1st and the North Beach, Marina, and Presidio of San Francisco from Pelosi’s old 8th. 75W, 13H
CA-9: light blue
Pelosi’s D+34 8th is now the D+33 9th, but little changes, losing a piece of SF and adding the SW part instead. 40W, 32A, 15H.
CA-10: pink
This is Speier’s district. It goes from D+22 to D+21, losing nearly all of its SF portion, keeping San Mateo Co., and adding the old San Mateo Co. portions of Eshoo’s district: Half Moon Bay, Woodside, Menlo Park, Atherton, Redwood City, and Portola Valley. 50W (maj-min.), 22A, 20H.
CA-11: green
Eshoo gets bumped up three spots, to the 11th district, and moving from D+21 to D+20. She keeps East Palo Alto from San Mateo Co. and all of her Santa Clara Co. portion (Saratoga, my hometown of Los Altos, Mtn View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale) and adds Santa Clara, Cupertino, Los Gatos, and part of San Jose from Honda’s district. 54W, 26A, 13H
CA-12: blue
Honda picks up a lot more of San Jose and keeps Campbell and Gilroy while adding Morgan Hill from McNerney’s district (what a gerrymander that one was). From D+16 to D+15. 47W, 27H, 19A
CA-13: salmon
Lofgren loses a lot of her old San Jose territory in her old D+17 district to Honda, and changes her district by adding Milpitas from Honda’s, hilly areas from McNerney, as well as his Dublin and Pleasanton, and Stark’s Newark. It’s now D+14 and 37W, 28H, 27A.
CA-14: puke
Pete Stark moves northward as well (all this from extending CA-1 southward), from his old, cozy, D+22 to his new, still Fremont/Union City/Hayward/San Leandro-based, but adding Lee’s S. Oakland and Castro Valley, for a now cozier D+26 district, 31W, 24A, 24H, 16B.
CA-15: orange
Barbara Lee’s district, previously at D+36, doesn’t have to be VRA, and so she now has her old N. Oakland and Berkeley along with Stark’s Alameda and Miller’s Richmond for a still D+36, but now 38W, 21B, 19A, 17H district.
CA-16: bright green
Miller is relocated entirely South of the Bay, keeping Martinez and Concord and adding Garamendi’s Walnut Creek, Lafayette, and Pleasant Hill and McNerney’s San Ramon and Danville. It then goes into the valley, like McNerney’s old district (Miller could retire with McNerney running here)to get Manteca, Lathrop, and Ripon,from McNerney and Radanovich’s districts, Republican areas that can be neutralized here. From D+19 to D+10. 70W, 14H, 10A.
CA-17: dark purple
Radanovich’s replacement will be safe here, the district goes from R+7 to R+11, keeping Oakdale, Yosemite, and Madera Co. and adding Merced and Atwater from Cardoza’s district. 56W, 33H.
CA-18: yellow
Devin Nunes is still fine here, but it goes from R+11 to R+9. It keeps Tulare, Porterville, Clovis, and Visalia while adding N. Fresno from Radanovich, as well as rural areas from Costa. 45H, 45W.
CA-19: forest green
This is Cardoza’ new district; he won’t be as happy, but that’s the price to pay for making stuff look nice. From D+7 to D+2 isn’t terrible, and at least Cardoza’ a Blue Dog, but still, it likely would be Lean D instead of Safe D, or something like that. He keeps Modesto, Ceres, and Los Banos, adds Turlock from Radanovich, and takes part of Costa and Radanovich’s Fresno. 48W, 38H. Plus, making Cardoza vulnerable will look bipartisan. D+1 again.
CA-20: pink
Jim Costa still very safe, however. Right now, he’s D+7, it jumps to D+16 with the one super-gerrymandered district. To help make SoCal more Democratic, Santa Cruz Co and rural San Benito Co are combined with the Central Valley, namely S. Fresno, Hanford, and rural areas from his old district. I’m sorry. 42W, 42H.
CA-21: maroon
Don’t worry, I didn’t forget about Sam Farr, it’s just that his district is really Central California now. He keeps Monterey Co. but adds more conservative Atascadero, Paso Robles, and Taft from McCarthy and Wasco, Delano, and Shafter from Costa, going from D+20 to D+7. 48W, 40H.
CA-22: brown
So there have to be two Republican Central Valley districts, so here’s McCarthy’s. He keeps Bakersfield and California City, but now adds some of N. LA Co. His district doesn’t really change much, though, from R+15 (in California!) to R+13. 54W, 33H.
CA-23: light blue
Alright, Lois Capps, how well can you poll more than 2 miles inland? Well, it seems she can do OK. Adding some of McCarthy’s inland SLO Co. and Gallegly’s inland SB and Ventura Cos. to her own coastal cities like Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, and Ventura, she goes from D+14 to D+7, not a huge change. 63W, 28H.
CA-24: deep purple
Elton Gallegly has a shot, but it just went from R+2 to D+2. He’ll probably retire, leaving it at Lean Dem. He keeps Moorpark, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, and Camarillo, and adds Oxnard from Capps’ district and Malibu from Waxman’s. 56W, 33H. This is the third toss up. D+1.5
CA-25: rose
This is Buck McKeon’s old district, but he’ll be retiring. From R+3 to D+6, this district, which Brad Sherman will now probably run in, contains parts of Waxman, Sherman, and Berman’s LA, along with Santa Clarita from McKeon’s old district. He’s gone. PICKUP 59W, 26H. D+2.5
CA-26: gray
This is an open district, it’s what Sherman’s district got moved to. From D+14 to D+8, that is. Some Democrat will win. It contains parts of Berman and Sherman’s LA, Dreier’s La Canada Flintridge, and Lancaster and Palmdale from McKeon. 48H, 33W.
CA-27: bright green
Howard Berman has no issues here. Right now, he has a D+24, but this will change him to a D+18. No alarm. Berman, Sherman, and Waxman’s LA districts are all represented, along with Schiff’s Burbank. 48W, 35H.
CA-28: light purple
This is David Dreier’s old R+1 district. Now it’s a Democrat’s D+8 district. How fun. Take Pasadena, Alhambra, San Gabriel, and Temple from Schiff, add Dreier’s San Marino, Arcadia, Sierra Madre, Bradbury, Monrovia, Glendora, San Dimas, and La Verne, and then include Chu’s Irwindale, Azusa, and Duarte, and we’ve got a 38W, 31H, 21A Safe Dem district from Dreier’s old Lean R one. PICKUP D+3.5
CA-29: ugly green
Adam Schiff gets to keep his number, and his district, somewhat. From D+16 to D+23, this actually helps him. He keeps Glendale and South Pasadena and adds LA from Becerra and Berman. 38W, 37H, 16A.
CA-30: salmon
Henry Waxman stays very similar, from D+18 to D+26, but safe either way. He keeps Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and Hollywood, and adds Harman’s and Waters’s pieces of LA and Culver City from Watson. 53W, 19H, 13B, 10A.
CA-31: pale yellow
I don’t think Jane Harman’s going to keep her district. Maxine Waters will primary her out. Blue Dog Harman goes from a manageable D+12 to D+26. Only a minority Blue Dog could survive here. El Segundo and Beach Areas stay in the district, and Waters’s Gardena, Inglewood, Hawthorne, Lawndale, and a slice of L.A. 39H, 33B, 18W.
CA-32: orange
Xavier Becerra goes from D+28 to D+29. Does it matter? All L.A., 53H, 17W, 16A, 11B.
CA-33: blue
This is the new district created by merging Harman and Waters. Harman could technically run here (although I consider it Waters’s old district), it went from D+32 to D+14, much like Harman’s old one. Torrance, Lomita, and a bit of LA are from her old district, while Richardson’s Compton, Carson, and the hills areas are in as well. I think Harman would run, but hopefully lose in the primary. 38H, 28W, 16B, 15A.
CA-34: green
Lucille Roybal-Allard’s district rises from D+23 to D+36. It has LA, Bell, Vernon, and Huntington Park. It’s 79%H, 15%B, and only 2% White!!!! She’s safe.
CA-35: purple
Napolitano’s old district was D+19. Her new one is only D+14. It’s got a lot of Eastern LA Co. 60H, 19W,11A.
CA-36: orange
Ed Royce won’t enjoy this. That’s good for us. He’s used to R+6. He now has D+7. Good luck, Mr. Royce. Have a fun retirement. Royce keeps Fullerton, adds Miller’s Brea, La Habra, and Whittier, and then takes in Pico Rivera, Montebello, and Santa Fe Springs from Linda Sanchez. 55H, 27W, 14A. Does any Republican represent a district that’s 27% White? PICKUP D+4.5
CA-37: bright blue
Judy Chu moves a bit, not too much. D+16 to D+17. Keeps Monterey Park, Rosemead, South El Monte, Baldwin Park, W. Covina, and Covina. Adds La Puente from Napolitano. 64H, 20A, 12W.
CA-38: light greenish
While we’re getting rid of OC Republicans, let’s get rid of the only one from LA County: Gary Miller. Miller goes from R+8 to D+6 in this district. He keeps Diamond Bar, Chino, Chino Hills, and part of Yorba Linda. He adds Walnut, Montclair, and Claremont from Dreier, Pomona from Napolitano, and Ontario from Baca. And here we have 46H, 30W, 13A. And no more Gary Miller. PICKUP D+5.5
CA-39: pale
Keep the most endangered Republican safe. Make them happy. Ken Calvert goes from R+3 to R+10. He’ll love this plan. He keeps Corona and Norco and adds Tustin from Campbell, Orange and Villa Park from Miller, and there: 56W, 28H.
CA-40: maroonish
Laura Richardson started at D+28. Now she’s at D+7. But it’s ok. She keeps about a third of Long Beach and adds Lakewood from Linda Sanchez, Buena Park and Cypress from Royce, and most of Anaheim from Loretta Sanchez. 41H, 32W, 15A.
CA-41: grayish-blue
So, I really wanted to get rid of Rohrabacher. I tried. Best I can get while keeping beach communities together is this D+3. He currently has R+5. I’d say he’s a toss-up. He takes Richardson’s Long Beach and Royce’s Los Alamitos adds it to his own Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, and Costa Mesa. 54W, 27H, 10A. D+6
CA-42: bright green
Loretta Sanchez’s district. Keeps Garden Grove and Santa Ana, adds Westminster and Fountain Valley from Ol’ Dana, and Stanton from Royce. From D+8 to D+0, but I think she can hold on. 51H, 24W, 20A. D+5.5
CA-43: pink
John Campbell currently resides in an R+3 district, and it changes to an R+4, still a Safe Republican OC district (the only one, unless you count Rohrabacher as safe). He keeps Irvine, Dana Pt., and the Lagunas while Calvert’s Mission Viejo. 71W, 13A, 12H.
CA-44: magenta
Darrell Issa’s district’s moved here, and he doesn’t live in it. However, he’s young, popular, and wealthy, so he’d probably still run. It goes from R+8 to R+12. He keeps Lake Elsinore and Temecula and adds San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente from Calvert, Murrieta, Hemet, and La Quinta from Bono Mack, and a lot of rural, desert-y area. 71W, 21H.
CA-45: light blue
Jerry Lewis, the Republicans’ Appropriations (earmarks) leader, moves from R+9 to R+1, a tossup (lean R with incumbency). So I can say D+6 total. He takes Baca’s San Bernardino and Colton and adds his own Highland, Redlands, Yucaipa, Calimesa, Banning, Beaumont, and San Jacinto. 48W, 34H.
CA-46: orange
Linda Sanchez’s D+13 LA Area district becomes a D+8 Inland Empire District. It will have a new, probably Hispanic, representative. It takes Riverside from Calvert, Perris from Issa, and Moreno Valley from Bono Mack. 40H, 39W, 11B
CA-47: pale purple
So Joe Baca goes from D+16 to D+6, but he’s still safe. He keeps Fontana, Rialto, and Colton, and adds Rancho Cucamonga and Upland from Dreier. 46H, 36W, 10B
CA-48: light orange
Most redistricting plans I’ve seen take out Bono Mack, but I’d rather remove Duncan Hunter and keep Bono Mack safe. From R+1 to R+7 she goes. She keeps only Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Rancho Mirage, Palm Desert, and Indian Wells, while adding much of Lewis’s old district in Desert Hot Springs, Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms, Hesperia, Apple Valley, and Needles. She also takes Barstow, Victorville, and Adelanto from McKeon. 62W, 26H.
CA-49: earthy red
I’m not sure who’s district this changes to update: it’s Watson’s, but it was certainly an R leaning district before. Now it’s D+4. So that’s 6 pickups. By taking Indio, Coachella, and all of rural Riverside Co. in the East from Bono Mack, along with Blythe, and combining it with Filner’s Imperial Co., Chula Vista, and the border part of San Diego, and then taking rural areas from Hunter and Issa, you’ve got a pretty safe district. 60H, 27W.
CA-50: light blue
Brian Bilbray is still safe, from R+1 to R+7. He takes Issa’s Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, and Vista and adds his own Carlsbad, San Marcos, and Escondido. 58W, 30H.
CA-51: brown
I think we can win a D+3, especially since it came from Hunter’s old R+8 and he doesn’t live in it. 7 pickups for us. Take Bilbray’s Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar, UC San Diego, and Hunter’s N. Poway, and add Davis’s La Jolla and W. San Diego, and we’re safe. 71W, 14A, 10H.
CA-52: green
Susan Davis gets a D+6 district, rather than D+16. She takes part of Poway, E. San Diego, and El Cajon from Hunter, along with his home rural area and La Mesa and adds some of her own San Diego. 60W, 20H
CA-53: white
The last one. Bob Filner goes from D+11 to D+5. It has his old S. San Diego area and Davis’s area plus her Coronado. 40W, 34H, 11B, 11A.
There it is, I’m done.
For the ultra-hardcore political junkies whose electoral cravings can never be satisfied, we’re offering up this open thread on today’s elections in the United Kingdom. Polls close at 10pm local time, which is 5pm Eastern (ie, right about now). While most constituencies start counting votes right away, some won’t begin until tomorrow morning, meaning who controls Parliament might not be known tonight if the election is close.
Some sites where you can follow the results (if you have others, please suggest them in comments):
Politics.co.uk | BBC | The Economist | Economist Liveblog
And for your viewing pleasure:
• AR-Sen: Americans for Job Security strikes back! They’re launching a new ad against Bill Halter on the outsourcing front… well, it’s pretty much the same ad, just not as, y’know, openly racist. They’re spending almost $500K on the TV ad buy, supplementing the large amounts they’ve already dropped in this race.
• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon has a new post-party-switch poll of the Senate race. They find Charlie Crist with a narrow lead, at 38, compared with Marco Rubio at 32 and Kendrick Meek at 19, but they also warn that Crist’s sitting on a house of cards, as more than half of Crist’s support is from Democrats and that may erode as Meek gets better known (Meek is at 40% unknown). I trust Mason-Dixon more than the three other pollsters who’ve also released results this week, but they all seem to be reaching a sort of consensus on this race (Rasmussen at 38C-34R-17M, McLaughlin at 33C-29R-15M, and POS for Crist at 36C-28R-23M). Meanwhile, the candidates are fumbling around trying to pin down their respective bases with various flipfloppery: Rubio is walking back his previous disdain for Arizona’s immigration law, now saying he’s all for it, while the occasionally pro-life Crist is prepared to veto a bill requiring pregnant women to view a fetal ultrasound before being able to have an abortion.
• IL-Sen: This is probably good news for Alexi Giannoulias, although it was more a question of when it would happen rather than if it would happen, given the media’s tendency to get distracted by the next shiny object. A local TV reporter more or less called out Mark Kirk for incessant focus on the Broadway Bank scandal and asked him what else he was planning to talk about in the future, perhaps indicative of a growing media boredom with the story.
• PA-Sen/Gov: Today’s tracker in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll shows a narrower spread in the Senate race: Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 45-40. In the Governor’s primary, Dan Onorato is at 34, Joe Hoeffel is at 12, and Anthony Williams and Jack Wagner are at 8. Meanwhile, the Sestak camp is hitting Specter with a new TV ad focusing on what’s probably Specter’s biggest vulnerability in the Democratic primary: the fact that he was a Republican Senator for, y’know, three decades or so. The ad’s replete with lots of photos of Specter and G.W. Bush, together again. The tightening race and aggressive tone has the Pennsylvania Dem establishment worried, and state party chair T.J. Rooney is sounding the alarm, calling a possible Sestak win “cataclysmic” and making various electability arguments in favor of Specter.
• AL-Gov: We don’t have any actual hard numbers to report, but local pollster Gerald Johnson (of Capital Survey Research Center) has been leaking reports that there’s significant tightening in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, with Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks moving within the margin of error of Rep. Artur Davis. Davis’s numbers seem to have dropped following his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Tim James‘ attention-grabbing, race-baiting ad seems to have had its desired effect. He just released an internal poll showing him taking the lead, with him at 26, Roy Moore at 21, Bradley Byrne at 20, and Robert Bentley at 7. (The previous James internal had Moore at 27, Byrne at 18, and James at 14.)
• CA-Gov (pdf): Another gubernatorial primary where there’s some tightening is on the Republican side is the GOP primary in California. Steve Poizner is touting an internal poll from POS that his him within 10 points of the once-unstoppable Meg Whitman, 38-28. It seems like Whitman lost a whole lot of inevitability once someone than her actually started advertising on TV, too.
• CT-02: That was fast… it was only a few days ago that former TV anchor Janet Peckinpaugh’s interest in running the 2nd became known. Now she’s officially launched her campaign, with Connecticut’s nominating convention fast approaching (May 21).
• PA-12: The DCCC paid for another $170K in media buys on behalf of Mark Critz, bringing their total investment in this special election up to $641K. (J) The GOP is bringing one more big gun to the district to campaign on Tim Burns’s behalf, too: Rep. Mike Pence.
• VA-05: In the wake of his surprising decision to join the Constitution Party, ex-Rep. Virgil Goode had to clarify several things: most notably, he said that, no, he’s not running in the 5th this year as a Constitution Party candidate (or as anything else), although he wouldn’t rule out a future run. Furthermore, he isn’t leaving the Republican Party; he doesn’t view membership as mutually exclusive. Meanwhile, Politico is wondering what’s up between the NRCC and the establishment candidate in the 5th, state Sen. Robert Hurt. Hurt hasn’t been added to the NRCC’s Young Guns list, despite their tendency to add anyone with a pulse everywhere else. The NRCC hasn’t added any names in this district and says they’d prefer to wait until after the primary — although in other contested primaries, they’ve added multiple names to the list, which suggests that they’re trying to lay low in this race, which has become a rather emblematic flash point in the establishment/teabagger rift this year.
• WA-03: Both Democratic candidates in the 3rd nailed down labor endorsements in the last few days. Denny Heck got the endorsement of the Boeing Machinists (maybe the state’s most powerful union) and the local IBEW, while Craig Pridemore got the nod from the pulp and paper workers.
• WI-07: With David Obey’s surprising retirement announcement yesterday, we’re moving the open seat in the 7th to “Tossup” status (from Likely Dem). On the one hand, it’s a D+3 district with a solid Democratic bench of state legislators, but on the other hand, GOP challenger Sean Duffy is sitting on a lot of money and establishment support, and there’s, of course, the nature of the year. CQ lists a whole herd of possible Democratic successors in the district: the big name on the list is probably Russ Decker, the state Senate’s majority leader. Others include state Sens. Julie Lassa and Pat Kreitlow, state Rep. Donna Seidel, and attorney Christine Bremer. Another area state Sen., Robert Jauch, has already taken himself out of the running. And one other Republican isn’t ruling out a bid, which could complicate Duffy’s path: state Rep. Jerry Petrowski.
• CA-Init: It looks like Californians will get the chance to vote on an initiative that proposes to move congressional redistricting to the same independent commission process as legislative redistricting, as the initiative just qualified for the ballot. I’m genuinely torn: on the one hand, the naïve idealist in me admits some fondness for compactly-drawn swingy districts, but on the other hand, Dems have a good shot at controlling the trifecta in California and with the ability to wring some additional Dem-leaning seats out of the map, control of the 2012 House may well be at stake here.
• NRCC: The NRCC promoted 13 members of its Young Guns framework to the top tier (the “Young Guns” level). This includes not only the aforementioned Sean Duffy, but also the winners of the three contested primaries in Indiana… and a surprise in the form of Morgan Griffith, who’s taking on Rep. Rick Boucher in VA-09 but who’s still sitting on a five-figure cash stash and on the wrong end of a 22:1 CoH ratio.
So, up to this point, I have kept my prognostications reserved for the lower house of Congress. For the most part I’ve wanted to see things unfold a bit on the Senate side. But now I feel as though I’ve gotten enough of a feel for the candidates and the electorate to make an accurate baseline prediction on all the competitive Senate races this cycle. As with my House baseline predictions from 2 months ago, I’ll go through every race, but obviously most of my attention will be turned to the toss-up and lean races.
The Senate this cycle is very much up for grabs, with 12, 13, maybe 14 races being considered competitive. It’s going to be fun to watch. The bad news for Team Blue is that they’ve got at least 2-3 seats going out the door immediately. But Team Red can’t get too far ahead of themselves, because they’ve got quite a few vulnerable seats of their own. At present the Democrats hold the Senate majority with 59 seats to the Republicans 41, meaning that the Republicans would need to rattle off 10 seats without losing any of their own to retake the body. I’ll tackle the Senate in 3 parts, starting today in the east and going westward over the next week or so.
Part 1 – Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper South, South Atlantic
Part 2 – Eastern Great Lakes, Western Great Lakes, South Gulf, Central Plains
Part 3 – Rocky Mountains, Pacific Coast
Northeast Region:
Maine – no election
New Hampshire – Open (Republican) – This seat looked to be a great pickup opportunity back in 2009 when Paul Hodes jumped into the race, but the environment has really hurt Dem chances in this notoriously independent and swingish state. Popular attorney general Kelly Ayotte has led Hodes by 7-10 points in most public polls of the race the past few months. While there is still a possibility that Ayotte will get knocked off in the GOP primary, I don’t see it happening. Winning isn’t impossible for Hodes, but he will have to work extremely hard against Ayotte and the red tide, which will probably be amplified in a state like New Hampshire.
State PVI – D+1
Stephen’s Rating – Lean R
Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold
Vermont – Patrick Leahy (Democrat) – Leahy is sitting pretty in one of the most democratic states in the nation and only token opposition. No way he loses.
State PVI – D+13
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Massachusetts – no election
Rhode Island – no election
Connecticut – Open (Democrat) – This seat was one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable until Chris Dodd decided to call it quits. In the open seat race, popular AG Richard Blumenthal has stepped up and is polling great against all Republican opposition, including former representative Rob Simmons and WWE CEO Linda McMahon, who are dueling for the GOP nomination. Blumenthal doesn’t have a great reputation as a debater or a campaigner, which gives me a little bit of pause, but honestly, unless he completely implodes, I don’t see either republican being able to beat him in a blue state like CT. Arguably McMahon would have the better shot seeing as she’s got the cash, but she also has a lot of baggage.
State PVI – D+7
Stephen’s Rating – Likely D
Prediction – Strong Dem Hold
New York – Chuck Schumer (Democrat) & Kirsten Gillibrand (Democrat) – New York is the one state that has two Senate races this year. One race is already over before it begins, as Chuck Schumer is probably the safest democratic member of the Senate this cycle. The other seat held by Kirsten Gillibrand, seems to be a bit more guarded because for whatever reason, a lot of base democrats haven’t gotten behind her. The Republicans were banking on a big name candidate, either former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani or former governor George Pataki to jump in. But neither has made the plunge, and Gillibrand is over 50 against the other no namers in the race according to every polling outfit not rhyming with Assmussen.
State PVI – D+12
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D & Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold & Solid Dem Hold
Mid-Atlantic Region
New Jersey – no election
Delaware – Open (Democrat) – Now this is a major headache that hardly anybody saw coming at the start of the cycle. Popular moderate GOP representative Mike Castle decided, at age 70, to run for the Senate, turning this seat from a solid democratic retention to a toss up. Then the democrats got sucker punched again as presumptive candidate, AG Beau Biden, turned and ran like a scalded dog…err…decided not to get into the race. Instead, Chris Coons is the democratic candidate. This is a strong democratic stronghold, and Castle’s recent votes against HCR and other democratic agenda items popular in DE could cost him crossover votes, but ultimately, I think Castle picks this one up easily.
State PVI – R+7
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Pickup (1st overall)
National Score – Republican +1
Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Democrat) – Now we hit what should be one of our hotly contested races of the cycle. Arlen Specter, formerly of Team Red, now of Team Blue, is defending the seat against the uber-conservative Pat Toomey. This race, depending on which polling outfit you believe in, has either Toomey ahead by 5-7 points or Specter ahead 6-8 points. It’s a good thing the pollster.com line doesn’t follow each data point otherwise it’d be worse than the Dow Jones on crack. This race also has a monkey wrench in the name of representative Joe Sestak, who is closing in on Specter in the democratic primary race. If Sestak wins the primary, I’m not sure what effect that would have on the general, but it probably wouldn’t be much. At any rate, I’m going to assume that Specter gets through to face Toomey. And if that matchup occurs, I think Specter wins handily. Why? Specter is a cold-blooded campaigner that will greatly expose Toomey’s bad attempt at moderation. Also, Specter defeated Toomey among republican primary voters in 2004. Do you really expect me to believe that PA as a whole will be more conservative this year than GOP primary voters were 6 years ago? Not a chance. Once Toomey is outed as the wingnut he is, Specter will consolidate Dems and win independents outright and win this thing going away.
State PVI – D+2
Stephen’s Rating – Lean D
Prediction – Moderate Dem Hold
Maryland – Barbara Mikulski (Democrat) – Mikulski, who sits in one of the nation’s more democratic states, looks good to go for another term. The NRSC allegedly tried for months to spread rumors that she was retirement, but now that the filing deadline has passed, they are left to face the music.
State PVI – D+10
Stephen’s Rating – Solid D
Prediction – Solid Dem Hold
Upper South Region
Virginia – no election
West Virginia – no election
Kentucky – Open (Republican) – This seat was the Republicans’ version of Connecticut, as unpopular senator Jim Bunning was imploding. But like Chris Dodd, he jumped out, and now the open seat is the site of not one, but two contested primaries. On the republican side, establishment favorite SOS Trey Grayson faces outsider fave Rand Paul. Much to the chagrin of the national GOP and the NRCC, it appears that Paul is headed to victory. On the democratic side, the outcome is much less clear. 2004 senate candidate and Lt. Gov Daniel Mongiardo faces off with state AG Jack Conway. This race is close, with most polls putting Mongiardo ahead in the single digits. Conway is without a doubt the better general election candidate. I can’t really put a finger on the outcome without knowing who the Dem candidate will be, but since Mongiardo has the advantage currently, I don’t like Team Blue’s chances. If Conway beats him the race will move in the Dem direction, probably to Toss Up.
State PVI – R+10
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
Tennessee – no election
North Carolina – Richard Burr (Republican) – Now we get to North Carolina, home of perhaps the nation’s most anonymous senator, Richard Burr. He consistently gets 30% or so that don’t even have an opinion of him in polls, and recent data shows that he’s only up 6-9 points on his democratic challengers. Speaking of the democratic primary, SOS Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham are heading to a runoff election next month. All general election polls I have seen don’t seem to suggest one candidate is more electable than the other. This race is one in which the national environment matters a lot because the electorate doesn’t know the candidates as well as the R or D next to their name. For now, I see Burr getting by, but if the economy improves and health care benefits start trickling in, upping the popularity of HCR, either Marshall or Cunningham has a great shot due to the recent leftward turn of the state and the strong local operation of the NC Democratic Party.
State PVI – R+4
Stephen’s Rating – Lean R
Prediction – Moderate Rep Hold
Deep South Atlantic Region
South Carolina – Jim Demint (Republican) – Demint is the most conservative member of the Senate, and while the Democrats would certainly like to knock him off, this is a tough state to do so, and an even tougher year in which to accomplish it. Plus, their candidates are weak. Demint is safe.
State PVI – R+9
Stephen’s Rating – Solid R
Prediction – Solid Rep Hold
Georgia – Johnny Isakson (Republican) – This seat was a huge recruiting fail for the Democrats for most of the cycle as Isakson has been sporting poor favorables in most public polling. Michael Thurmond (I think? Race tracker Wiki doesn’t even list him) has stepped forward for Team Blue, giving them a strong elected official to run against Isakson. Admittedly I don’t know a whole heck of a lot about this race, but I think that it will be hard for Thurmond to replicate the Obama coalition of 2008 that nearly put Jim Martin over the top, namely because minority turnout is likely to be way down. In a southern state like Georgia, that’s usually death, and unfortunately, I think it’s the primary reason why the underwhelming Isakson will roll on through without much difficulty.
State PVI – R+6
Stephen’s Rating – Likely R
Prediction – Strong Rep Hold
Florida – Open (Republican) – Now this is a fun race. What looked to be a done deal for the GOP months ago when governor Charlie Crist announced his candidacy descended into a brutal primary, then another sure thing with upstart Marco Rubio, and finally now into a triple threat match where anything could happen. Rubio, the republican candidate, is running as the true conservative in the race. Kendrick Meek, the democratic candidate, is the unabashed liberal that stood in even when the race looked impossible. And in the middle is Crist, running as an independent and pretty much picking and choosing positions that might get him elected. Needless to say, this is a hard, hard race to call, much more so than a typical toss up race. There’s an argument to be made that any of the three could conceivably win, but I’m going with Crist because for whatever reason, base democrats either don’t know Meek or are lukewarm about him. My guess at this point is that Crist is still very popular among unaffiliated voters, and if he can eat into democrats because of Meek’s lack of name recognition, that will be more than enough to win. It’ll be very interesting to see how this one plays out.
State PVI – R+2
Stephen’s Rating – Toss Up
Prediction – Weak Ind Pickup
National Score – Republican +.5
Eastern US Recap – So far, we have 2 seats turning over. Mike Castle’s win in Delaware turns that seat from blue to red, and Charlie Crist’s win in Florida makes that seat go from red to independent green. Since we don’t know who Crist would caucus with, if he caucuses at all, the Republicans lose .5 of a seat there, giving them an advantage of .5 seats so far.
In the next edition, we head into the Central US, where competitive races in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri dominate the narrative.
Today’s election day across the pond. The election was called just a month ago (Apr 6). It’s a parliamentary election – in other words, the winner is the party with a majority of seats in the UK lower house.
This is one of those rare UK elections where the outcome is rather uncertain. The betting is still on a “hung parliament” where no party gets a majority, though it’s still quite possible that the Conservatives (sometimes also known as Tories) will get a majority.
(X posted at Daily Kos)
Update – unfortunate exit poll rumors – http://www.politicshome.com/uk…
OTOH, turnout is supposedly around 70%, much better than the 61% in ’05, which should benefit the Liberal Democrats.
At the last election (2005), the seat totals were:
Labour: 349
Conservative: 210
Liberal Democrat: 62
Others: 29
That was based on the following overall vote:
Labour: 36.1%
Conservative: 33.2%
Liberal Democrat:22.6%
Others: 8.0%
Currently, there are 650 seats up for election, so a majority is 326. If memory serves, about 18 seats are in N. Ireland, and the major parties don’t contest those seats.
There have been three debates between the leaders – the first time there have been debates in a UK general election. The first debate essentially elevated Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats to a status equivalent to that of the other leaders. While the other debates were less conclusive, David Cameron, Tory leader, got a positive push from the third and final debate.
Loosely speaking, Labour is the leftist party, the Conservatives are the right-wing party, and the Liberal Democrats are in the middle. But that’s just a very loose comparison.
Many Conservative policies seem to resemble those of moderate Democrats here. While the traditional Conservative color is blue, they’ve taken a green tinge, on their website, and in some of their policies.
Many Liberal Democrat policies (and yes, they don’t use the -ic at the end) vary : while some seem rather free market, they are decidedly the antiwar party, especially w/r/t Iraq and Afghanistan.
Labour is the traditional left-wing party in the UK. AFAIK, their support is based on the stronger unions in the UK. But that constituency also resembles working class swing voters in the US in some ways. Some leftists have broken off of Labour because of their pro-war stance, and have formed a smaller party called Respect.
As for election projections, I like the UK Polling Watch site at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/b… . Based on a “so-called” Uniform National Swing (UNS), they’re projecting the following seat totals, based on their poll of polls:
Conservative: 274
Labour: 264
Liberal Democrat: 81
Respect: 14
They’ve been monitoring what our own Nate Silver calls a “Nerdfight” with at least four rounds. The essence is based on variations on the UNS, based in part on regional UK polls. Nate’s projecting:
Conservative: 312
Labour: 204
Liberal Democrat: 103
He has a range of scenarios at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
My own personal guess, as Labour has quite a favorable advantage based on the way the UK has been gerrymandered:
Conservative: 299
Labour: 220
Liberal Democrat: 101
(In other words, I’m guessing that the Liberal Democrats will take some Conservative seats where Labour is not competitive, esp in the S & W of Britain.)
The UK polling report suggests that UK exit polls were spot on w/r/t Labour seats in the ’05 election, so we should have some idea where the election is going at 10p UK time (2p Pacific). I’ll try to remember to update then.