Month: May 2010

So says the Politico:

In a major blow to Democrats, House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey has told close associates that he will not seek re-election and an announcement of his plans is expected as early as Wednesday.

Obey had been expected to run for re-election in this D+3 district in Northwest Wisconsin, facing off against the winner of the GOP primary between Real World: Boston cast member (and Ashland County DA) Sean Duffy and ’08 nominee Dan Mielke. Obey won 61% against Mielke in 2008.

Obama won 56-43 here, but Kerry and Gore only scraped out meager 1-point wins. This is considered ancestrally Democratic territory, but the continued expansion of the Twin Cities exurbs is starting to have an effect.

The filing deadline is July 13th and the primary September 14th.

FL-22: You stray, you pay. Marco Rubio strayed from the GOP reservation on Arizona’s new immigration law, and now ultra-rightist Allen West is attacking him for it. It will probably endear West even more to his base, but I note that the 22nd CD is 15% Hispanic (though undoubtedly some portion is Cuban).

PA-12 (PDF): Global Strategy Group (D) for Mark Critz (4/27-29, likely voters, mid-April in parens):

Mark Critz: 45 (41)

Tim Burns: 37 (38)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01: Former Providence city councilman David Segal is considering a run, and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee wants to back him. He would join former state Democratic Party Chairman William Lynch and current Providence Mayor David Cicilline in the race. Businessman Anthony Gemma says he is also “strongly considering” a bid.

VA-05: Virgil Goode, who briefly served in Congress as an independent (between his switch from the Democratic to the Republican Party) has abandoned the major parties once again. He says he’s joining the Constitution Party – though no word on whether he plans to run on that line for his old seat. However, Jeff Clark says he [Clark] has gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot as an independent – but will only run if state Sen. Robert Hurt is the GOP nominee. It seems like local conservatives hate Hurt as much as we hate Lieberman.

UT-02: Retired school teacher Claudia Wright is planning to challenge Rep. Jim Matheson at the 2nd CD Democratic convention this Saturday, and says she thinks she can get the 40% she needs to make it on to the primary ballot. Wright principally cites Matheson’s healthcare vote as the reason for her run. While we just saw last night that unhappy liberals in North Carolina were willing to vote for no-names against two other Dems who voted nay on HCR (Heath Shuler and Larry Kissell), the stakes are a lot higher in UT-02, where it’s hard to imagine any Dem other than Matheson holding this seat.

Now that we’ve pretty much buried Indiana, it’s time to move the party over to a fresh new thread.

RESULTS

• NC: Associated Press | NC BoE | Politico
• OH: Associated Press | OH SoS | Politico

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11:51pm: Gibbs now leads Dailey by 5 votes in OH-18. 35 precincts to go.

11:41pm: ‘Chili wins OH-02 — the AP calls it.

11:28pm: Last update from jeffmd here, but I’m gonna say a narrow ‘Chili win in OH-02 (he’ll improve slightly), and a very very narrow win in OH-18 for Dailey, within recount territory.

11:13pm: Things are looking better for Yalamanchili in OH-02, up 651 votes with 11 precincts left; 9 are in Hamilton County, where Chili’s been getting 55%. (jeffmd)

10:59pm: A new back of the envelope calculation says 21.1% for Dailey to 20.7% for Gibbs, or a 167-vote margin. Guernsey, Licking, and Tuscarawas Counties are left. Guernsey was 17-14 for Dailey, with some dude Moll winning; Licking was 30% for some dude Daubenmire but was 15-10 for Gibbs. Tuscarawas was also good for Moll, but leaned Gibbs 12-10. (jeffmd)

10:54pm: Here’s a bit of good news: In OH-02, Surya Yalamanchili has taken the lead from David Krikorian for the first time. He’s up 39-38 with three quarters in.

10:49pm: We’re down to stems and seeds, folks. The only real excitement left is OH-18.

10:42pm: 509 of 589 precincts are in, and Dailey leads by 160 votes in OH-18. Meanwhile, all the votes are now counted in NC-11, and it looks like Jeff Miller will barely make it to the general without a runoff — unless there’s a recount.

10:22pm: SSP’s jeffmd.app is projecting Fred Dailey to win OH-18 by 21.5% to Bob Gibbs’ 20.5%. Ohio law calls for a mandatory recount if the margin is below 0.5%.

10:19pm: The AP has called a runoff for NC-08, with Harold Johnson and Tim D’Annuzio the lucky twosome. Meanwhile, jeffmd has called IN-09 for Todd Young.

10:13pm: With 445 of 589 precincts in, NRCC pick Bob Gibbs leads Fred Daily by just 70 votes. Hang on to your butts…

10:03pm: The AP has called the Ohio Senate primary for Lee Fisher. He’s leading Brunner by 56-44 with about 48% of the votes in.

9:58pm: In OH-18, Fred Dailey leads NRCC pick Bob Gibbs by 25-22. Over half the vote’s in there.

9:53pm: OH-16 got super-tight – Jim Renacci leads Matt Miller by just over 100 votes.

Polls have now closed in all three states with primaries tonight: Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.

RESULTS

• IN: Associated Press | IN SoS | Politico
• NC: Associated Press | NC BoE | Politico
• OH: Associated Press | OH SoS | Politico

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9:51PM: Well, this thread is getting a bit obese. Let’s move this discussion over here.

9:45PM: Get ready for a runoff between Elaine Marshall (37%) and DSCC fave Cal Cunningham (27%) in North Carolina.

9:43PM: With half the vote in, Krikorian leads Yalamanchili by 40-34.

9:38PM: So, er, looks like we jumped to conclusions a bit in IN-09 – Hankins is now fewer than 300 votes behind Young. But it still looks like Young is favored.

9:37PM: Risk loses Kamchatka. The AP calls IN-08 for Larry Bucshon. (Hey teabaggers — vote for Trent out of spite!)

9:35PM: The AP calls OH-02 for Jean Schmidt. She scored 62% of the vote this time.

9:33PM: Unreal. Looks like Dan Burton is gonna live again — he’s at 29.7% of the vote, just over 2000 votes head of Luke Messer with 4 precincts outstanding. What a pathetic showing for Burton!

9:25PM: Despite Travis Hankins’ exciting late surge, Todd Young has pulled away with an almost 2K vote lead. Less than 10% of the vote is outstanding, which means that fewer than 5K more ballots are still out there. Almost impossible to make up that gap. (And incidentally, Mike Sodrel pulled back into second place.)

9:22PM: Elaine Marshall’s share of the vote keeps slipping downward. She’s now just above 37%.

9:09PM: With 477 of 587 precincts in, Todd Young leads Travis Hankins by 225 votes in IN-09.

9:03PM: With 9.5% of the vote in, Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner by 56-44.

9:00PM: I note that Dan Coats won his nomination with about the same percentage as Alexi Giannoulias won his.

8:53PM: Whoa, check out IN-09 — Young leads teabagger Travis Hankins by 34-33, with 30% for Sodrel. Still about a fifth of the vote left to count there.

8:51PM: Risk is now back up by 31-29 in IN-08, but there are still 71 Bucshon-friendly precincts outstanding in Evansville left to count.

8:49PM: Whoa mama joe! In Ohio, it’s still 52-48 Fisher with 7% of the vote in.

8:47PM: Worth noting: Neither Kissell nor Shuler’s primary opponent filed an FEC report, and Shuler’s guy doesn’t even have a contribution link on his website.

8:46PM: The problem for Dan Burton? He has no strongholds left, and his Hamilton County performance is quite weak. This should be very close.

8:45PM: Buschon now up by 31-30 based on his strength in Evansville. 2/3rds of the vote now in.

8:43PM: Almost 2/3rds of the votes are now counted in IN-05, and Burton leads Messer by 31-28. The Hamilton County votes, which are starting to come in now, are split 25-25-25 for Burton, Messer, and McGoff.

8:41PM: The AP calls the Indiana Senate primary for Dan Coats.

8:41PM: Note that both Shuler and Kissell voted against healthcare — are we seeing some fallout there?

8:38PM: NC-11: And Heath Shuler is up just 57-43 against Aixa Wilson.

8:37PM: NC-08: Dem Rep. Larry Kissell up just 60-40 against challenger from the left with 15% in.

8:36PM: A bit over half of the vote is in, and Dan Burton leads Luke Messer by 32-30.

8:29PM: Risk only up 12 votes in IN-08, 30-30, she’ll continue to lose ground as more of Vanderburgh County comes in.

8:26PM: Harold Johnson leads D’Annuzio by 35-34 in NC-08. Looks like a runoff is a live possibility here.

8:25PM: Now that a bit over a quarter of the vote is in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 38-28. Ken Lewis is at 15.

8:22PM: With a bit over half the vote counted in IN-09, Young leads Sodrel by 37-31, while teabagger Travis Hankins is close behind with 29%.

8:21PM: Teabagger Kristi Risk now only leads Buschon by 300 votes in IN-08, now that Evansville (Buschon’s home base) is starting to report.

8:19PM: In NC-08, Harold Johnson leads businessman Tim D’Annuzio by 37-34. Looks like that’s just the early vote, though.

8:18PM: NC-10: McHenry comfortably ahead with a small number of votes in, 60-25.

8:16PM: Check out OH-16, where Matt Miller is leading NRCC fave Jim Renacci by 72-23 thanks to some early votes in in Ashland, his home county.

8:13PM: The bean counters at SSP labs think that a runoff is likely in North Carolina. There’s a huge chunk of eastern NC that’s largely African-American where Ken Lewis is going to do better than he’s been doing right now, as well as Durham/Mecklenburg counties outstanding.

8:11PM: With under half of the vote in, teabagger Kristi Risk leads DC-backed surgeon Larry Buschon by 31-26. Wow!

8:10PM: The AP has called IN-02 for Wacky Jackie Walorski.

8:09PM: IN-09: Todd Young leads Mike Sodrel 38-33, with Travis Hankins back at 26.

8:08PM: In North Carolina, the Senate race is now 39M-27C-16L, but as Tom Jensen points out, the minor candidates may force this into a runoff.

8:04PM: With just 11 precincts in (but also a big chunk of votes in from Franklin County), Fisher leads Brunner by 52-48 in Ohio.

8:00PM: The AP has declared GOP Rep. Mark Souder the winner of his primary. I’m kind of surprised!

7:57PM: Dan Burton is in a very tight race. With 40% in, he leads Messer by 33-31.

7:56PM: IN-04: Rokita crushing 45-18 with about a third of the vote in.

7:56PM: IN-03: Souder very likely to hold on – 49-34 with 72% in.

7:55PM: IN-02: Wacky Jackie now up 57-31 with 43% in.

7:48PM: With the early vote in North Carolina in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 39.5% to 26%.

7:42PM: Kristi Risk now ahead by just 15 votes in IN-08 (216 of 635 precincts reporting).

7:40PM: With 28% of precincts in statewide, Dan Coats leads Marlin Stutzman by 42%-30%.

Polls have now closed in most of Indiana, so we’ll start our evening of liveblogging here (we’ll touch bases in North Carolina and Ohio as polls close there in another hour and a half).

RESULTS: Associated Press | IN SoS | Politico

7:41PM: We’re moving the party over to our new thread.

7:36PM: Burton leads Messer by 38-30 with 124 of 617 precincts in.

7:32PM: Wow — teabagger Kristi Risk leads NRCC fave Larry Buschon in IN-08 by less than 50 votes with under a third of precincts reporting.

7:30PM: Polls are now closed in North Carolina and Ohio — we’ll have a new results thread up for all three states shortly. Also, all of the polls closed in western Indiana half an hour ago.

7:25PM: With 86 out of 587 precincts in, Young is back up over Sodrel by 44-40. In IN-02, with about a fifth of the precincts in, Wacky Jackie leads Jack Jordan by 47-37. And Mark Souder now has a 48-35 lead over Bob Thomas with a little under half of the vote in.

7:15PM: Some more House updates: Walorski leads Jordan by 49-36 in IN-02 (with 93 precincts in), Souder is back up over Thomas by 43-37 (55 precincts in), Rokita is crushing in IN-04, Burton leads Messer by 38-27 (39 precincts in), Buschon leads Risk by 30-26 in IN-08, and Sodrel leads Young by just 13 votes in IN-09.

7:00PM: 21 precincts are now in, and Mark Souder has fallen behind Bob Thomas by 32 votes.

6:50PM: With 92 precincts reporting in IN-08, NRCC fave Larry Buschon is posting quite a weak-assed performance. He’s at 33%, with 26% for teabagger Kristi Risk — and the rest split among six different flavors of crazy.

6:46PM: With 111 precincts now in statewide, Dan Coats leads the way with 40%. Hostettler has 26%, and Stutzman is close behind with 25%.

6:43PM: And keep an eye on IN-03! Incumbent Mark Souder leads Bob Thomas by only 39-37 with six precincts reporting.

6:40PM: There’s only once precinct in from IN-05 so far, but keep your eye on this race. Luke Messer is currently leading incumbent Republican Dan Burton by 36-31.

6:33PM: 10 precincts are now in, and check this out — Coats leads Stutzman by only 39-36 (with the Hos’ at 17%).

6:28PM: Over in IN-02, Wacky Jackie Walorski leads Jack Jordan by a 57-36 margin — just one precinct in, though.

6:16PM: With a single precinct reporting (out of 5306), Dan Coats leads John Hostettler by 38%-28%. Marlin Stutzman has 15%. In IN-09, Todd Young has a very early 51-37 lead over Mike Sodrel.

Jim Gibbons, a former NCAA champion wrestler and coach, included a heavy dose of wrestling imagery in his first television ad, which goes up in central Iowa today:

Here’s my rough transcript:

(visual of two young wrestlers shaking hands and practicing) Gibbons voice-over: I learned a lot on a mat like this as a wrestler and a coach. Set goals. Make a plan. Be dedicated. Work hard. Lead your team by listening.

(Gibbons steps into frame in front of wrestling mat, speaks to camera) I’m Jim Gibbons, and I used these lessons as I became a financial adviser. (shots of Gibbons advising clients) Help families save for the future, control spending and balance budgets. (Gibbons speaks to camera again) I’m running for Congress to stop wasteful spending, lower taxes and grow Iowa jobs. I’m Jim Gibbons, and I approved this message not because I can still do that (gestures toward wrestling mat), but because I’ll always fight for you.

This commercial strikes me as a lot better than Gibbons’ first web video, which gave the viewer no sense of what the candidate stands for. The production values are also better. I don’t think many financial advisers are helping their clients control spending or balance the family budget, but I get the connection he’s trying to make.

Over at The Iowa Republican, Craig Robinson (a big promoter of Gibbons’ candidacy from the beginning) sees a lot of upside for Gibbons:

Having outraised his primary opponents by a large margin over the last five months, his advantage in the race will now be more apparent to voters. The ad will also allow him to build his name ID across the district, while also defining the issues that his campaign will focus on. It is likely that Gibbons will be on TV from now through the June 8th primary.

Gibbons chief opponent, State Senator Brad Zaun, was the first candidate in the race to run a TV ad. Zaun ran a TV ad back in January, but his buy only totaled about $2,800. TheIowaRepublican.com was told that the Gibbons TV buy is more in line with what the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent on ads thanking Congressman Boswell for this vote for President Obama’s healthcare plan.

Being the first candidate in the race to begin a TV campaign has a lot of advantages. Right now, the only political candidate that Gibbons is sharing the TV with is Terry Branstad. As the primary day approaches, more and more candidates will be running TV ads, which means that it will be more difficult to communicate a message due to all of the political clutter. For the 2nd and 3rd congressional candidates, it could get especially cluttered since both districts share some of the Cedar Rapids media market.

The other advantage to running ads now is a significant one. People are already casting their votes for the June 8th primary via absentee ballots and satellite voting locations. Having a positive ad up and running during this period of time may help Gibbons pick up some early votes.

From where I’m sitting, Gibbons needed to get his name out there. I’ve seen approximately 20 yard signs for Zaun for every one for Gibbons. Then again, I live not far from Zaun’s stronghold (Urbandale, a large suburb of Des Moines).

State Senator Zaun and Dave Funk (the tea party favorite) will not be able to afford nearly as much paid advertising as Gibbons. Moderate Republican Mark Rees may be up on the air soon if he hasn’t changed his plan to commit $200,000 of his own money to his campaign.

What does the SSP community think of this commercial and/or the Republican primary in Iowa’s third district (D+1)?

• NH-Sen: I’m still hazy on the backstory here, but it’s never a good sign when Politico is running big headlines titled “Fraud case complicates Ayotte bid.” New Hampshire’s Bureau of Securities Regulation director, Mark Connelly, just resigned his job to become a whistleblower, alleging a cover-up by the AG’s office and state banking commission in a fraud case where Financial Resources Mortgage Inc. defrauded New Hampshire investors out of at least $80 million. Connelly was pushing for charges against FRM as early as 2006; the AG in question, of course, was Kelly Ayotte, who resigned her post in mid-2009. Discovery in the matter may be complicated because all of Ayotte’s e-mail and calendars were wiped from her computer after she left the AG’s office.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): It looks like Muhlenberg College (on behalf of the Morning Call) is actually going to be doing a daily tracker on the Democratic primary races in the next two weeks as we count down to May 18. Today they find an even narrower gap in the suddenly-closer Arlen Specter/Joe Sestak race: Specter leads Sestak 46-42. Dan Onorato’s numbers in the gubernatorial race aren’t quite as showy, but still dominant: he’s at 36, with Anthony Williams at 9, Joe Hoeffel at 8, and Jack Wagner at 8. Quinnipiac also has similar numbers out today: they also have Specter leading Sestak by only single digits, at 47-39 (down from 53-32 a month ago). In the governor’s race, Qpac finds Onorato at 36, Hoeffel at 9, Wagner at 8, and Williams at 8. The DSCC seems to be sensing some trouble here for their preferred candidate, and they’re dipping into their treasury to help Specter out: the DSCC chipped in for $300K in Specter’s last $407K TV ad buy. Sestak just kicked off TV advertising two weeks ago but is going all in, outspending Specter in the last two weeks, which obviously coincides with his late surge.

• AZ-Gov: That Behavior Research Center poll of AZ-Sen from a few weeks ago contained a Republican gubernatorial primary question as well. Their findings mirror the other most recent polls of the primary: vulnerable incumbent Jan Brewer strengthened her hand among GOP primary voters by signing Arizona’s immigration law into effect. She’s at 22, not a lock but well ahead of any opposition: Owen Buz Mills is at 13, Dean Martin is at 10, and John Munger is at 4. (If your calculator isn’t handy, that leaves 51% undecided.)

• NH-Gov (pdf): Univ. of New Hampshire is out with another look at New Hampshire’s gubernatorial race, where Democratic incumbent John Lynch is well in control but still facing a tougher race than the last few times. They find Lynch leads GOP challenger John Stephen 49-32, little changed from the February poll where Lynch led 50-30.

• WI-Gov: Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann is very much the underdog in the Republican primary in the gubernatorial race (as the DC and local establishments have both embraced Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker instead). But he added a hard-right endorsement to his trophy cabinet today; he got the nod from Tom Coburn.

• GA-08: In a clear sign that state Rep. Austin Scott (who recently bailed out of a long-shot gubernatorial campaign) is the man to beat in the GOP primary in the 8th, Angela Hicks got out of the race, saying she didn’t want to hurt Scott’s chances. Local businesswoman Hicks seemed to be considered the frontrunner among the GOPers prior to Scott’s entry, more by virtue of being the least weak rather than the strongest.

• HI-01: Barack Obama recorded a robocall for Democratic voters in his hometown district. Despite reports that the White House is joining the DCCC is putting a finger on the scale in favor of Ed Case rather than Colleen Hanabusa in the screwy special election, Obama didn’t name names; he simply urged a vote for “a Democrat.”

• NH-02: The largely forgotten state Rep. John DeJoie, the third wheel in the Democratic primary to replace Paul Hodes, cut short his bid today. Despite generally being regarded as from the progressive side of the ledger, DeJoie threw his support to Katrina Swett. DeJoie’s departure, on the balance, may help Ann McLane Kuster, though, by not splitting the progressive vote.

• PA-12: I have no idea whether this is good strategy or not, but Mark Critz, hoping to replace former boss John Murtha, is clinging hard to Murtha’s legacy in his new TV ad, seeming to put a lot of faith in polling data showing Murtha still a very popular figure in the district. Critz blasts back at Tim Burns for his own TV spots focusing on Murtha’s ethical woes, telling Burns ungrammatically to stop attacking “someone not there to defend themselves.” Meanwhile, the fight’s on for Murtha’s money: $7K from Murtha’s PAC found its way into Democratic pockets (including $5K for Critz), but the bulk of Murtha’s leftover money is headed for a charitable foundation established by his widow.

• CA-St. Sen.: For fans of legislative special elections, it looks like the marquee event between now and November will be the fight for California’s SD-15, a Dem-leaning central coast district vacated by Republican now-Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado. Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee just got in the race, giving the GOP a solid contender to try and hold the seat as Dems try to push closer to the 2/3s mark in the Senate; he’ll face off against Democratic ex-Assemblyman John Laird in the June 22 election. (If neither candidate breaks 50%, there’ll be an Aug. 17 runoff.)

• Redistricting: Lots of redistricting-related action this week, going in two different directions. In Florida, the GOP-held legislature placed a redistricting measure on the November ballot that partially contradicts two citizen initiatives on the ballot that would prevent the legislature from drawing maps that favor one political party. The new proposal would still allow the legislature to take “communities of interest” into consideration when drawing maps. In Illinois, though, two attempts to change redistricting both failed, when the legislature couldn’t muster the votes to put it on the November ballot. Illinois’s arcane methods (which involve breaking ties by pulling a name out of a hat) will apparently still apply for the 2012 redistricting round.

• Deutschland: Our man in Cologne, SSPer micha.1976 has a hilarious and remarkable find from the streets of Germany. Remember the impeach-Obama Larouchie, Kesha Rogers, who won the Democratic nomination in TX-22? Her image is now being used on posters for a like-minded LaRouchie candidate in Germany! (J)

Public Policy Polling (5/1-2, likely voters, 12/18-21/2009 in parens):

Rand Paul (R): 46 (44)

Trey Grayson (R): 28 (25)

Undecided: 21 (32)

Other: 4

(MoE: ±5.1%)

Jack Conway (D): 27 (37)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 36 (33)

Undecided: 27 (30)

Other: 10

(MoE: ±4.6%)

PPP finds Paul ahead by a mile in the Republican primary — quite the contrast with Grayson’s internal polling which purports to show a tied race. Still, Grayson’s camp isn’t going down without a fight — they just unfurled an endorsement (and accompanying ad) from Mitch McConnell. (Though the only surprising thing about that is the fact that McConnell was officially neutral for so long.)

On the Democratic side, you have to wonder if Conway has a fighting chance. In his favor, a greater share of primary voters consider Conway to be a blank slate: 51% have no opinion of him, while 36% react the same way to Mongiardo. Perhaps Conway can close the gap by flooding the zone with his superior cash reserves in the final two weeks of the race, but it’ll be tough.

An all-House digest today – and it’s an hour earlier than usual! Remember, today is primary day in IN, NC & OH, so be sure to check out SSP’s handy election guide.

AL-07: Attorney Terri Sewell, who is probably the candidate ideologically closest to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis, is going up with a TV ad buy in Montgomery and Birmingham which will stay up through the primary (which is a month from now). No word on the size of the buy, though.

CT-02: Republicans are courting former television news anchor Janet Peckinpaugh to run against Rep. Joe Courtney, who has luckily skated by without much in the way of opposition this cycle. Peckinpaugh says she’s considering it. She was most recently seen shilling for a now-defunct mortgage company in deceptive, TV news-like ads, clearly trading on her reputation as a newsreader. The company, Lend America, shut down in December after it was placed under federal investigation.

FL-12: After screwing up the establishment’s efforts to clear the GOP primary field for ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross by jumping into the race, Polk County Comm’r Randy Wilkinson is bidding adieu to the Republican Party. Instead, he’s going to run as the Tea Party candidate (there’s an actual Tea Party in Florida, just like the Whigs). Wilkinson has raised very little money – his FEC reports are a mess, and he seems to like filing them in hand-written form, so he doesn’t even appear in their electronic database.

FL-21: What a bummer – zero Dems filed in the open 21st CD, which means that Mario Diaz-Balart will automatically inherit his brother Lincoln’s seat. I can’t really blame folks too much, though, as Florida has especially onerous ballot access requirements. If you don’t petition on, you have to pay a filing fee, which is an insane $10,000+.

HI-01: The DCCC threw down another $70K for negative ads against Charles Djou.

ID-01, OH-15: We mentioned the other day that GOPer Steve Stivers, busy with a rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15, said he favors repealing the 17th amendment – the one which gives citizens the right to vote for their senators (rather than having them be appointed by state legislatures). Well, after taking a lot of much-deserved heat, he’s backed off that fantasy. But his would-be colleague, Vaughn Ward, is taking up the mantle. Ward, running against Rep. Walt Minnick in ID-01, offered a rationale worthy of Miss Teen South Carolina, saying “When you look at how come state’s rights have been so abrogated, it’s because of things like the 17th Amendment that has taken away those rights from our states.” Yuh huh. Exactly.

IL-08: Just click the link and read about the greatest political implosion of the entire cycle. (Thankfully, it’s the bad guys.) More here, here, and here.

KS-03: Along with Joe Garcia (see yesterday’s morning digest), the DCCC added another candidate to their Red to Blue list, Stephene Moore, who is the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry, running for Bill Delahunt’s open seat, scored an endorsement from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. Perry, who was also previously endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown, has a primary against ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone. Malone has some baggage-related cooties, which probably explains Perry’s run of good fortune.

MD-01 (PDF): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Americans for Prosperity (R) (4/25-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Kratovil (D-inc): 36

Andy Harris (R): 39

Richard Davis (L): 6

Other: 1

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Two things about this poll: First off, in contravention of appropriate practice, POS asked all kinds of axe-grindy issue questions (“Gov. O’Malley raised taxes by $1.3 billion”) before getting to the horserace question. This does damage to POS’s reputation as a supposedly respectable pollster. Secondly, the weird thing is that Harris switched pollsters – and his last survey, from the Tarrance Group back in November, had him up by a whopping 52-39. While it’s not a proper trendline, you gotta wonder – is Harris slipping? Or is he getting snowed by his various pollsters? (Update: D’oh! Our mistake — this poll was not done for Harris, but actually the right-wing consortium of douches known as the Americans for Prosperity.)

MI-01: Dem state Rep. Joel Sheltrown, who got into the race to replace Bart Stupak just a few weeks ago, is bowing out.

MI-09: Self-funder Gene Goodman is dropping out of the race to take on Rep. Gary Peters, despite having loaned his campaign $450K. That leaves ex-state Rep. Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski and former Oakland County GOP Chair Paul Welday in the running, both of whom have had unimpressive fundraising – and in fact, Rocky is yet another victim (albeit a more minor one) of Base Connect.

Meanwhile, we missed a Welday internal poll from a couple of weeks ago (taken by Mitchell Research & Communications), which had Peters leading by just 44-43. The poll sampled just 300 LVs, though, and according to the Hotline, was in the field at two discontiguous times. Peters’ camp attacked the poll’s sample composition, but Steve Mitchell says he used the same methodology as he did in September of 2008, when (according to the article), ” he declared Peters was going to defeat Joe Knollenberg.” Is this hindsight proving to be 20/20? Mitchell’s poll from back then had the race tied.

NY-13: Global Strategy Group (D) for Mike McMahon (4/7-11, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56

Mike Allegretti (R): 24

Undecided: 20

Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56

Mike Grimm (R): 23

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.9%)

OH-09: Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who is not really on anyone’s radar in terms of having a competitive race, is nonetheless facing a moneybags challenger. Former Food Town CEO Rich Iott just dumped $319,000 into his campaign. Kaptur has over a million on hand, and the 9th CD voted 62% for Obama and 58% for Kerry.

PA-12: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DCCC (4/27-29, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Critz (D): 43

Tim Burns (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

TN-08: A couple of disgusting low-lifes running for TN-08, Ron Kirkland and Randy Smith, had this delightful exchange at a candidate forum:

Kirkland, of Jackson, referred to his Army training during the Vietnam War and said: “I can tell you if there were any homosexuals in that group, they were taken care of in ways I can’t describe to you.”

Smith, a chef from Mercer who served in the Navy during the Gulf War, said: “I definitely wouldn’t want to share a shower with a homosexual. We took care of that kind of stuff, just like (Kirkland) said.”

These sick bastards have serious issues.

SD-AL: Heh – GOP state Rep. Kristi Noem has a biographical spot up on the air, talking about her return to her family farm after her father’s death. The only problem is that she shot the ad in Texas – which became apparent given that the backdrop (a grove of leafy green trees) is something you can’t really find in North South Dakota this time of year. Reminds me of when Bob Schaffer ran an ad pretending that Alaska’s Mount McKinley was actually Colorado’s famous Pikes Peak while running for CO-Sen in 2008.