Month: March 2011

There are 8 Republican state senators that can be recalled right now and there are recall petitions being circulated against each of them. WI Dem party chairman Mike Tate said yesterday that he believed 6-8 was a possibility, but its his job to be optimistic like that.

Using the data provided by this great site I’ll try to take a look at it from a slightly more objective POV and look at each individual state senator and the likelihood they’ll be recalled. Remember the magic number is three as that’s what it would take for Dems to take control.

Robert Cowles-A district that went big for Bush in 04 but Obama won with a decent margin in 08. In a relatively low turnout special election where the energy is on our side this is a race that is eminantly winnable. The one thing I’d add is that Cowles has been around forever, since 1987, so he may ahve a lot of built up goodwill.

Alberta Darling-This is going to be one of the top races. She won a very narrow race in 08 and I read an AP article yesterday with a quote from Darling where she pretty much acknowledges that she’s going to have a tough race. The one thing going for her is that she’s been in office since 92 but as her race in 08 showed a lot of voters were willing to throw her out.

Sheila Harsdorf-Another solid chance at a pickup. She comes from, pretty much, a 50-50 district and in a special election where the energy is on our side she can’t like her chances.

Luther Olsen-Everything written about Cowles could be reiterated here, outside of the fact that Olsen has only been around since 2004. One thing to add about him and Cowles is that I’m not intimately aware of each of there districts but both ran unopposed in 08 so they may be stronger than some think even if the terrain looks solid.

Randy Hopper-Hopper is arguably at the top of the list. He’s a first termer that comes from a district Obama won, albeit narrowly, and he won his race by just over 100 votes. He comes from a pretty GOP-friendly district, although certainly not overwhlemingly, but he’s not a particularly strong incumbent and in this environment he’s gotta be considered an underdog to retain his seat. There’s also the SUSA poll that shows by a 54-43 spread his constituents want him gone.

Glenn Grothman-Most conservative district in the state. I’d be shocked if there’s anything to see here.

Mary Lazich-Her district is only slightly less conservative than Grothman’s, as both are 60% or more McCain districts. Again shocked if there’s anything to see here.

Dan Kapanke-I don’t want to sound arrogant, but I think he’s toast. He has the most democratic district held by a Republican. Kerry won the dsitrict by a solid 53-46 margin and Obama won the district 61-38. And while he certainly deserves credit for winning in 08, SUSA also has numbers showing that his constituents want him out by a 57-41 margin.

While I mentioned Tate’s outlook was optimistic looking at it, its only slightly so. Grothman and Lazich are probably safe, but I think the other 6 have to know there in for a battle.

If I were to rank the 8 in terms of likelihood of getting recalled: 1. Kapanke, 2. Hopper, 3. Darling, 4. Harsdorf, 5. Olsen, 6. Cowles, 7. Lazich, 8. Grothman.

Kapanke and Hopper look like they’re in big trouble. I like our chances against Darling and Harsdorf and if public opinions remains strongly on our side we’ve got a real shot at knocking off Olsen and Cowles.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, Missouri voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D-inc): 45 (47)

Peter Kinder (R): 38 (39)

Undecided: 17 (14)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Tom notes that Nixon is unusually popular – and has unusual crossover appeal:

Nixon has well above average approval numbers for a Governor in our polling, with 47% of voters happy with the job he’s doing to 31% who express disapproval of him. Nixon’s numbers have an unusual pattern by party. Only 60% of Democrats like what he’s doing while 24% disapprove. That’s a tepid level of support from within his own party. But he has almost as many Republicans – 32% – who approve of his performance as there are – 40% – who are unhappy. It’s rare to see any politician come that close to breaking even across party lines. And he has very solid numbers with independents as well at a 48/26 spread.

These numbers, while great, are still a good bit removed from those absurdly gaudy POS numbers that showed Nixon with a 61-26 approval rating. I’m much more inclined to believe PPP’s numbers. Kinder’s favorables, I should point out, are just 25-24, but half the state still doesn’t know him, so he has upside. Tom also points out that Nixon’s lead with independents is just 3%, a far cry from the 30+ he beat Kenny Hulshof by in 2008. So I think you gotta give the edge to Nixon, but just given that this is Missouri here, it looks like it’ll be competitive.

Just hoping that user sapelcovits can check in when he can.

Any other users from Japan, anyone in the path of the Tsunami, I’d appreciate it if you could check in here too.

There was a 8.9 mag earthquake in Japan last night.

I know this is not a normal diary.

• AZ-Sen: I had sort of forgotten that J.D. Hayworth had said he was interested in running for Jon Kyl’s seat, but yeah, there he was, chatting up The Hill yesterday, and telling them that Jeff Flake has “delusions.” Jeff Flake is the one with the delusions? Anyhow, Hayworth refused to offer a timetable for his decision, and believe it or not, there’s actually one guy who cares: Joe Arpaio. As you’ll recall, the dipshit sheriff flip-flopped the other day and said that yeah, he’d like to continue pretending he’s interested in the race, but now he’s also saying that he’ll wait for Hayworth’s decision first. I’m not sure anyone has ever shown J.D. this much respect before!

• IN-Sen: Not only has Dick Lugar given no indication that he’s interested in running as an independent, but his flip-flopping cave on the House GOP budget bill is, to me, evidence that he plans to terminate his political life as a member of the Republican Party. Still, for fun, the National Journal looked at what it would take for Loogs to make the ballot as an indie. He’d need 35,000 signatures (2% of the vote cast in the most recent SoS election) – but he’d also have to drop out of the GOP primary, as Indiana has a so-called “sore loser” law which prevents someone who loses a primary from running in the general.

You might have also heard about newly-discovered issues Lugar’s voter registration. It came to light a few weeks ago that Lugar typically lives in a hotel in Indianapolis when he returns home (which reminds me a lot of Indiana’s other senator, Dan Coats, who preferred to spend his time in North Carolina). It also turns out that Lugar is registered to vote using the address of an old family home which was sold years ago. The senator’s spokesperson probably should have said something other than Lugar “remains a Hoosier in the eyes of the law.”

• MA-Sen: Newton Mayor Setti Warren told Wicked Local that he’ll make a decision on a Senate run “sometime in the spring.” (There words, not his.)

• MT-Sen: For those of you carping about the lack of Montana stories in the digest, here’s one: the Montana Retail Association and the Montana Convenience Store Association are running radio ads against Jon Tester, to, as Roll Call puts it, “dissuade him from delaying reforms to the debit card “swipe fees” that are scheduled to go into effect later this year.” NWOTSOTB (that’s No Word On The Size Of The Buy – remember it), but this ad seems much more genuinely issued-focused rather than some kind of attempt to bolster Tester’s opponent, Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg.

• MO-Sen: Ben Smith writes: “The questions around McCaskill’s flights are likely to be an issue in McCaskill’s re-election campaign next year.” Here, let me fix that for you: “The questions around McCaskill’s flights are likely to be made a fake non-issue by sensationalists like Ben Smith in McCaskill’s re-election campaign next year.” Hope that helps!

• NM-Sen: Well, someone at Roll Call is sleeping on concrete tonight: Lt. Gov. John Sanchez reportedly will not announce a decision about a Senate run until after the legislative session. That’s soon, though: March 19th.

• TX-Sen: John Cornyn says he won’t endorse in the very crowded field to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison. Local Republicans also say he isn’t engaging in any behind-the-scenes favoritism either.

• VA-Sen: Does anyone else remember the AP’s Charles Babington saying, back on Feb. 25th, that Tim Kaine would decide on a Senate run “within a week”? You should, because it was in the digest. But not, apparently, in real life, since the mind-numbingly painful Tim Kaine goes on (and on, and on). I think the Beltway media just have a particular fascination with this one, since Kaine is a DC figure and his next-door state always looms large. Annnyhow, Timmeh is attending a dinner in honor of ex-Rep. Rick Boucher in southwestern VA this weekend, but “an official who can speak for Kaine” tells Roll Call that her (his?) boss won’t be making any announcements this weekend. Just give us Tom Perriello already!

• AZ-Gov: Just watch the video and enjoy.

• LA-Gov: It’s from last week, but the New York Times had a good story on the dodgy campaign finance practices of the allegedly incorruptible (but obviously not) Bobby Jindal. If you are, say, a big telecommunications firm or an oil-and-gas giant and want to receive special treatment from the state of Louisiana, and you know contributions to the governor’s re-election campaign are capped at a measly five grand, you just make a plus-sized gift to Jindal’s wife’s charity and bam! there you go. Full details on this sordid practice at the link. Best ethics laws, my ass.

• OH-Gov, OH-17: Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has been amping up his populist attacks on Gov. John Kasich and the Ohio GOP’s anti-labor and anti-middle class agenda (with the centerpiece being a the right-to-work piece of legislation known as SB5). Associates say he’s potentially gearing up for a run against Kasich in 2014, and notably, he’s being advised by ex-Gov. Ted Strickland. One Democratic operative speculates, though, that perhaps Ryan is trying to warn the GOP away from fucking with his district lines too much this year: if they forcibly turn him out of office in 2012, the 39-year-old Ryan will definitely be looking for a new job in 2014.

• WI-Gov: The Hotline asked Russ Feingold if he’d consider running against Scott Walker in a hypothetical recall election next year. An aide gave a typical non-answer, suggesting Feingold isn’t ruling it out, but noting that he’s teaching at Marquette Law School and writing a book at the moment.

• AZ-08: Hopefully this is a sign that Rep. Gabby Giffords’ recovery is going well: Not only will her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly, go up on the space shuttle next month (this long-planned mission is his last chance to do so before the shuttle fleet is retired), but she’ll be there to watch the launch.

• NV-02: Two scoops of plump juicy raisins for the Nevada News Bureau yesterday. First, they announced that Rep. Dean Heller (R) would be getting into the Senate race. Now they’re following up with a report that, according to their sources, state Sen. Mark Amodei (R) will run for the 2nd district seat. You may recall that Amodei, who is also the GOP state party chair, briefly ran for the Senate last year before realizing he didn’t stand a chance against Chicken Lady and Crazy Lady.

• PA-15: The conservative David Koch front group Americans for Prosperity is running radio ads (NWOTSOTB) in GOP Rep. Charlie Dent’s district, in the hopes of “encouraging” him not to stray from the Republican pack and start voting against signature agenda items in a bid to preserve his so-called “moderate” voting record. I like this, because pressure on GOP “moderates” in the 2005-08 timeframe helped deliver a number of seats to us. Hopefully the same pattern will pick up once again now that Republicans have the majority in the House and start acting recklessly.

• Wisconsin Recall: MoveOn has leaked some data from two Wisconsin polls SurveyUSA took for the group. MoveOn tested a generic recall question against two Republican state senators: Randy Hopper and Dan Kapanke. Only 43% said they’d vote for Hopper, while 54% said “someone else”; for Kapanke, it was 41-57. Since I know you’ve bookmarked SSP’s indispensible post that shows presidential election results by senate district, then you’re aware that Kapanke sits in the bluest district, while Hopper won by the narrowest margin in 2008 (just 0.2% – a result which was the subject of a recount).

Meanwhile, Dave Weigel notes that four liberal groups – MoveOn, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Democracy for America, and Daily Kos – have raised almost $2 million in support of the recall efforts.

• WI Sup. Ct.: As it happens, there’s another really important race going on in Wisconsin right now: a Democrat, JoAnne Kloppenburg, is challenging Republican state Supreme Court Justice David Prosser. The race is technically non-partisan, but Prosser used to be the Republican state House Majority Leader. More importantly, if Kloppenburg were to win, she’d shift the balance on the court from 3-4 to 4-3 in our favor, which could be crucial if the court is called upon to rule on any of Scott Walker’s legislative thuggery.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Mississippi: Yeah, this is definitely an example of saying the quiet part loud.

• Redistricting: While devoted Swingnuts will be familiar with much of this list, Aaron Blake has a good roundup of members of Congress who are potential redistricting victims – and who are deciding whether they’d rather jump (to another elective office) or get pushed (into oblivion).

In a similar vein to my previous diary “A Democratic Nebraska” I moved a state south to see how Democratic a Kansan congressional district can be. However, early on I noticed that it was actually possible to make two districts in Kansas with a democratic lean, albeit a very, very slight democratic lean. As in the past the numbers are hand tabulated and should be quite accurate.

CD1(Blue): 53.5% Obama 73/9/10 W/B/H

The blight on the landscape that is CD1 stretches its hideous legs out from its nominal centre in Emporia to swallow up Pittsburg, Parsons, Wichita, Hutchinson, Manhattan, Junction City, Topeka, and parts of Lawrence whilst nimbly avoiding republican counties with any sort of significant population.    

CD2(Green): 53.5% Obama 76/9/10 W/B/H

Compared in to CD1 CD2 is has a positively tidy shape. Based in Kansas City (the part that is in Kansas anyway) it runs up along the Missouri through Leavenworth to Atchison and south into the more Democratic parts of Johnson county before turning west into the heart of Lawrence.    

CD3(Dark Magenta): 35.0% Obama 88/2/5 W/B/H

South-eastern Kansas wrapping around CD1. It would be a neater district if it was just southern Kansas and didn’t turn north-east at Hutchinson, honestly I just didn’t want to reassign the precincts south of Manhattan.

CD4(Red): 29.6% Obama 83/1/13 W/B/H

The rest of Kansas. Mostly the western and northern parts of the state but it does follow the Oklahoma state line quite a way east.

The single so called “super-democratic” district turned out to be 57.6% Obama (74/10/11 W/B/H) and appears below.

I decided to attempt redistricting Arizona, with its requirements for districts based around communities of interest. Arizona will pick up a 9th Congressional seat in 2012, though it’s tough to say which is the ‘new’ seat in my map as I moved a lot of things around in the Phoenix metro area. Changes elsewhere were less radical.

Caveats: While the district populations are all roughly equal in DRA, they have the potential to be out of whack in reality, particularly in Pinal County, I’m told. Also, I have little first hand knowledge of Arizona and am going mostly off of what I’ve read in other diaries, so cue Nico picking this apart in 3…2…1

So, here goes:

Statewide

Phoenix Metro

Tucson Metro

Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

Demos: 59% White, 1% Black, 20% Native American, 18% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% Otther

Description: Similar to the current 1st, though it sheds most of the non-rural Pinal stuff and picks up rural parts of Cochise and the rural portions of Maricopa instead. The district, as drawn is designed to keep as many rural interests in the state together as possible. The swaps have made this a more Republican district than the current 1st, but I’m guessing that it’s definitely winnable for the right kind of Democrat.

Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District

Demos: 74% White, 3% Black, 2% Native American, 2% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 1% Other

The 2nd stays similar to its current configuration. It does pick up all of La Paz County from the current 8th, but the western Phoenix suburbs, including most of Glendale, dominate here. So, what you have are two communities of interest: the smaller cities on the Western half of the state and the bulk of the West Valley of Phoenix. Should send a GOPer to Congress.

Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District

Demos: 79% White, 2% Black, 1% Native American, 3% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 1% Other

The 3rd remains a North Phoenix dominated district. However, it sheds Central Phoenix to the new 6th and picks up North Scottsdale and Paradise Valley from the old 5th. What I’m aiming for here is to combine the wealthier suburbs into a single district. I’m guessing that even Ben Quayle is probably safe here, and any other GOPer would have a job for life.

Arizona’s 4th Congressional District

Demos: 72% White, 3% Black, 1% Native American, 2% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 1% Other

The new 4th contains the whiter, farther out 2nd ring suburbs of Phoenix (East Mesa and Gilbert) along with the bulk of Pinal County. I’m not going to lie-this configuration is largely because aside from the Indian reservations and the rural parts, I wasn’t quite sure how to carve up Pinal, so I figured that keeping it mostly together (minus the Indian Reservations in the 8th and the rural east in the 1st) as a community of interest wasn’t the worst idea in the world. I’m guessing this is a GOP slam dunk.

Arizona’s 5th Congressional District

Demos: 22% White, 9% Black, 2% Native American, 2% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 1% Other

This is basically the current 4th CD, except that it loses the whiter portions of Central Phoenix to the new 6th and gains a little more population in the West Valley. Best Dem district in the state from a PVI perspective.

Arizona’s 6th Congressional District

Demos: 50% White, 5% Black, 3% Native American, 4% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 2% Other

Tempe plus Central Phoenix in a district that, to me anyways, makes a huge amount of sense as it brings together two ASU campuses plus the seat of government. I think of this as the Texas 25th of Arizona, a white, liberalish seat; say hello to some sort of Democrat here.

Arizona’s 7th Congressional District

Demos: 65% White, 3% Black, 4% Native American, 2% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 2% Other

The aim here was to bring together a bunch of first and second tier suburbs located to the east of downtown Phoenix together in a district. The district is comprised of West Mesa, Ahwatukee, Chandler, and Southern Scottsdale. I know that Chandler is swingy, and West Mesa is D friendly, but know nothing about Ahwatukee and the portion of Scottsdale in the district.

Arizona’s 8th Congressional District

Demos: 32% White, 3% Black, 5% Native American, 1% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 1% Other

This is a lot like the old 7th, though it sheds La Paz to the 7th, parts of central Tucson (including the University of Arizona) into the 9th. In exchange, it picks up some Hispanic heavy turf in Maricopa in the West Valley and the rest of Sierra Vista, and is in the end, several points more Hispanic than the old district (though what this translates to in VAP is unknown); should send some flavor of Dem back to Congress.

Arizona’s 9th Congressional District

Demos: 73% White, 3% Black, 1% Native American, 3% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 2% Other

Picks up white liberals in Tucson and sheds eastern Cochise and the Sierra Vista portions. The two big military installations are here as a community of interest, along with Eastern Tucson. Gabby would do very well here, but as an open seat I’d guess that it’s still definitely winnable for either party.

Arizona is gaining one seat, from eight up to nine, and that means that its new target is 710,224, up from 641K in 2000. Interestingly, despite the fact that it’s gaining a new seat, there are still three currently-composed districts that are in a deficit and need to pick up people from elsewhere: the 3rd, 4th, and 5th. These are the three central districts in the Phoenix area that are essentially built out and can’t expand in any direction (except up); meanwhile, the 2nd, 6th, and 7th can continue to expand every which way into the desert, which is precisely what they did over the decade, so look for one additional GOP-friendly seat to be carved out of Phoenix’s endless suburbia (although whether it’s centered in Phoenix’s west or east suburbs remains to be seen… between the commission’s role in deciding, and possible multiple incumbents opening up seats to run for the Senate, there really aren’t any clues what will happen).

Like the other border states, Arizona has become signficantly more Hispanic over the decade, up to 29.6% Hispanic now compared with 25.3% in 2000. The Hispanic growth wasn’t concentrated any one particular place: that 4% increase was closely mirrored in all the districts. The 2nd had the biggest Hispanic shift, at 7% (from 14% to 21%), while the 1st had the smallest shift, at 3% (from 16% to 19%). That dissipation of the Hispanic vote means that it’s not terribly likely that a third VRA seat will be carved out, despite the fact that Hispanics are close to 1/3 of the state’s population.

I’m not the first one to observe that Idaho redistricting is pretty much drama-free. Nevertheless, there’s at least something interesting going on here in this small but fast-growing state: growth is very heavily concentrated in suburbs and exurbs west of Boise. For instance, the state’s 2nd and 3rd biggest cities used to be Pocatello and Idaho Falls; now they’re Meridian (a large suburb west of Boise) and Nampa (in Canyon County, the next county to the west). That means that the districts are kind of lopsided, and it looks like much of Boise proper, currently split down the middle, will wind up being given to ID-02. While Boise is certainly the most urbane part of the state, and it should tip the balance a bit in the blue direction (as for the past decade, the two districts have had almost identical PVIs), the 2nd should still be a long way away from somewhere the Dems can compete. (Idaho’s target is 783,791, up from 646K in 2000. Look for it to get a 3rd seat in 2020.)

Wisconsin held steady at eight seats this year, and even its districts held pretty steady, too. Its target is 710,873, up from 670K in 2000. That means the only district that lost population is the Milwaukee-based 4th and even it only lost a few thousand since 2000. The main area of growth is the state’s other blue stronghold, the Madison-area 2nd (must have something to do with THE BLOATED STATE GOVERNMENT AND THOSE GREEDY PUBLIC EMPLOYEES MULTIPLYING LIKE LOCUSTS!!!!1!!), which needs to give about 40,000 people to the 4th (although they’ll have to pass through the suburban 5th, which sits smack dab between them). Also, it looks like Dairyland is gaining a little at the expense of the North Woods, as the 3rd will need to pick up 20K from GOP freshman Sean Duffy’s 7th. Although the GOP controls the redistricting process here, thanks to their House gains in 2010 and the overall uniform swinginess of the rural counties, they’re probably just going to be playing defense with their map.

Virginia was really bad for democrats in 2010 (what state wasn’t?). The republicans picked up the 2nd, 5th, and 9th. As I am a democrat I usually make maps leaning that way so I decided to make a republican map. This is an 8-2-1 map and preserves the VRA district while weakening only Morgan Griffith and Cantor a bit.  It’s not perfect but I think it pretty good. For those who don’t know, in the individual district pictures, light green is new district only, pink is old only, and the darkish green is areas in both.

District 1



Incumbent: Rob Wittman

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: 176

Obama: 47.8%

McCain: 52.2%

Dem: 44.6%

GOP:  55.6%

White: 67.2 %

Black: 20.6 %

Hispanic: 6.3%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target: 45,520

Obama: 48.4%

McCain: 51.6%

Dem: 44.8%

GOP:  55.2%

White: 67.7 %

Black: 19.6 %

Hispanic: 6.8%

The 1st had to lose some population and so it moved a bit, but it is largely unchanged with the exception of taking up a little more of the suburbs in SE Virginia.  Likely R

District 2:



Incumbent: Scot Rigell

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: -26

Obama: 49.2%

McCain: 50.8%

Dem:  46.4%

GOP:  53.6%

White: 65.7%

Black: 20.4%

Hispanic: 6.0%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target:  -70,482

Obama:  52.4%

McCain: 47.6%

Dem: 49.1%

GOP:  50.9%

White: 62.6%

Black: 21.7%

Hispanic: 6.9%

Nye was elected on the backs of two very poor republican congressmen. While he is young, attractive, and from Philadelphia (awww yeah), with this new district he would not have won in 08. Rigell’s biggest worry is the primary with his donations to Obama and all that jazz. This seat mainly took what district one gave up.  Likely R

District 3:



Incumbent: Robert Scott

New Stats:

Deviation from Target:  -267

Obama: 82.2%

McCain: 17.8%

Dem:  76.9%

GOP:  23.1%

White: 28.9%

Black: 61.0%

Hispanic: 5.3%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target: -53,960

Obama: 75.7%

McCain: 24.3%

Dem:  28.7%

GOP:  71.3%

White: 36.2%

Black: 53.7%

Hispanic: 5.0%

Mr. Scott would probably be happy with this district as it gets more black and democratic. The district did have to pick up people, and it did this by snaking to as many areas of strength as possible.  I have to say it is horrendous looking. The VRA  mapping standards I have mixed feelings about… Yes they are good for protecting the rights of minorities. This though? Ugh. Safe D

District 4:



Incumbent: Randy Forbes

New Stats:

Deviation from Target:  -255

Obama: 48.8%

McCain:  51.2%

Dem: 46.4%

GOP:  53.6%

White: 61.7%

Black: 28%

Hispanic: 5.3%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target:

Obama: 51.0%

McCain: 49.0%

Dem:  48.2%

GOP:   51.8%

White: 57.8%

Black: 33.2%

Hispanic: 4.5%

Randy Forbes is unfortunately a skilled politician.  While he wins in a current Obama district easily, I don’t think anyone in the GOP would mind his district getting a bit safer. The only serious challenge he had was his first against Louise Lucas in the 2001 special election. Likely R.

District 5:



Incumbent: Robert Hurt

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: 122

Obama:  43.3%

McCain:  56.7%

Dem: 42.7%

GOP:  57.3%

White: 75.1%

Black: 19.5%

Hispanic: 2.7%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target: -39,711

Obama:  48.5%

McCain:  51.5%

Dem: 47.3%

GOP:  52.7%

White: 71.7%

Black: 21.9%

Hispanic: 3.1%

5 is the most important district. Perriello is not in this district, and half of his base in Charlottesville is gone. Included, however is Rick Boucher.  Neither Boucher or Perriello has much to run, as they both have a lot of new constitutions AND the district is 5 points more republican than it was before.  Safe R unless Perriello or Boucher run, than Likely R.

District 6:



Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: -43

Obama:  43.9%

McCain: 56.1%

Dem: 42.8%

GOP:  57.2%

White: 81.5%

Black: 10.9%

Hispanic: 4.2%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target: -23,285  

Obama:  43.2%

McCain: 56.8%

Dem: 42.1%

GOP:  57.9%

White: 81.2%

Black: 11.1%

Hispanic: 4.3%

This close save district remains close to safe. Little changes, mostly just to fill in where other districts no longer are because it was lacking population. Likely R.

District 7:



Incumbent: Eric Cantor

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: -601

Obama: 48.1%

McCain:  51.9%

Dem:  43.4%

GOP:  56.6%

White: 68.9%

Black: 14.5%

Hispanic: 8.6%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target: 25,081

Obama: 46.6%

McCain: 53.4%

Dem: 43.3%

GOP:  56.7%

White: 72.3%

Black: 16.7%

Hispanic:  4.8%

Snaking into Prince William to shore in place of 1 and 11, the partisan numbers actually don’t change all that much as the district loses parts of Richmond. I kept in the most conservative precincts because I figure that’s where Cantor lives. Cantor should be fine. Likely R

District 8:



Incumbent:  Jim Moran

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: 531

Obama: 68.2%

McCain: 31.8%

Dem:  67.7%

GOP:  33.3%

White:  53.9%

Black: 13.2%

Hispanic: 18.4%

Asian: 11.4%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target: -27,688

Obama:  68.2%

McCain: 31.8%

Dem: 67.7%

GOP:  33.3%

White: 54.4%

Black: 13.3%

Hispanic: 18.4%

Asian: 10.7%

Almost unchanged, just look at demographics. Safe D

District 9:



Incumbent: Morgan Griffiths

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: -196

Obama: 43.4%

McCain: 56.6%

Dem: 45.7%

GOP:  54.3%

White: 88.8%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target:  -72,764

Obama: 40.3%

McCain: 59.7%

Dem: 43.7%

GOP:  56.3%

White: 92%

The district had to gain people and Griffith’s home of Salem. The district got more democratic by taking in parts of Charlottesville and some of its suburbs to weaken cut Periello’s base in two. Periello resides in this district but might still choose to run in the 5th.   Likely R, will move to Safe fairly soon as Griffith’s gains name recognition throughout the district.

District 10:



Incumbent: Frank Wolf

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: -98

Obama: 49.4%

McCain: 50.6%

Dem: 48.1%

GOP:  51.9%

White: 66.9%

Hispanic: 10.7%

Asian: 13.5%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target: 144,282

Obama: 50.2%

McCain: 49.8%

Dem: 47.2%

GOP:  52.8%

White: 63.8%

Hispanic: 13.5%

Asian: 12.4%

Wolf has won for 30 years straight, usually with ease. His district is now a McCain district but it only moved by about .8%. Lean/Likely R

District 11:



Incumbent: Gerry Connolly

New Stats:

Deviation from Target: 645

Obama: 55.6%

McCain: 44.4%

Dem: 50.5%

GOP:  49.5%

White: 54.4%

Black:  10.2%

Hispanic: 16.9%

Asian: 14.9%

Old Stats:

Deviation from Target: 62,964

Obama: 56.6%

McCain: 43.4%

Dem: 52.3%

GOP:  47.7%

White: 55.0%

Black: 11.1%

Hispanic: 15.4%

Asian: 14.9%

This district becomes more swingy by taking away some liberal territory like Dale City and giving to Eric Cantor. Leans slightly D but I’d call it a toss-up. Connolly would have lost in 2010 with this district.

According to the Nevada News Bureau:

Two reliable sources have confirmed that Congressman Dean Heller said this week he is definitely committed to running in the U.S. Senate race. Heller’s office would not confirm the news this morning when contacted.

Heller’s decision comes as no surprise on the tail of Senator John Ensign’s announcement Monday not to seek a third term. Heller had already signaled his ambitions when his office leaked an internal poll last month showing he was the strongest candidate in a GOP field (that included Ensign) by a 15-point margin.

Jon Ralston also confirms:

Heller is in and has been since he got poll back. They have not set official announce date. But sooner because of Ensign exit.

Sharron Angle, you know you want to.

Looks like we – and by we, I mean they – will have a serious fight on our hands:

New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez is poised to join former Rep. Heather Wilson in the Republican primary for the Land of Enchantment’s open Senate seat, according to GOP sources. The move sets up the likelihood of heated GOP primary that could test the loyalties of newly elected Gov. Susana Martinez (R).

Sanchez, who is putting together a campaign team and plans a trip to Washington, D.C., later this month, ran on a ticket with Martinez in their successful 2010 campaign.

Sanchez obviously wants to present himself as the “true conservative” alternative to the apostate Wilson, but he’s not an especially impressive figure and thus he might not be the last person to enter the race. Teabaggers are rarely satisfied with establishment types, even archetypally wingnutty ones, so I could see a “true, TRUE conservative” also trying to make a go of it.

Sanchez does have one important attribute: money. In fact, he’s self-funded most of his campaigns. Of course, this is a two-edged sword – the sort of laziness that’s borne of self-funding can really hurt you in a low-turnout primary where grassroots excitement is a key factor. When people give money to your campaign, they are also buying in to it. You create a cadre of individuals who really care about the outcome and will often do more than just donate a single time. We’ll see whether Sanchez understands this.

UPDATE: Grr – looks like the fight right now is actually between Roll Call and The Hill. The latter publication is taking exception to the former’s initial report, saying:

New Mexico Republicans expect the Senate primary field to grow, but an associate close to Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) said an announcement about his intentions isn’t “imminent.” …

A report on Thursday indicated that Sanchez was “poised” to enter the race. But a close associate of the lt. governor called that “premature.”

“Expectations of an imminent announcement are premaure,” the associate of Sanchez told The Ballot Box, noting the Republican was focused on the current legislative session, which runs through noon on March 19.