Month: March 2011

(Please give a warm welcome to brownsox (aka Arjun Jaikumar) who is joining our horserace superteam – promoted by DavidNYC)

Pretty reasonable numbers, but a dodgy-looking sample.

Western New England College (PDF) (3/6-10, Massachusetts voters):

Michael Capuano (D): 38

Scott Brown (R-inc): 51

Elizabeth Warren (D): 34

Scott Brown (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The toplines are pretty much in line with what other pollsters have shown, like PPP. Brown has a solid lead, hovering around 50%, while his prospective opponents aren’t especially well known (one difference between WNEC’s poll and PPP’s is that Mike Capuano, tested in both polls, has impeccable 30/14 favorables in WNEC’s poll and pretty lousy 26/27 favorables in PPP’s).

Brown also leads Elizabeth Warren, who WNEC decided to poll for reasons best known to them (though check out those 17/3 favorables – Mike Beebe, eat your heart out!)

Like a lot of university polls, though, WNEC’s sample seems bizarre – 34% Democrats, 12% Republicans and 47% independents (the remainder responded “something else”). That’s very low on Democrats for a Massachusetts poll – the 2008 exit polls were 43% Dem, 17% Republican, 40% indie. Still, the toplines are close enough to everybody else’s numbers that they seem likely to be accurate. So the question is, can Brown lose?

He’s popular, but unlikely to get much more popular than he already is, especially as he continues to vote with Republican leadership to cut jobs and slash Medicare benefits. And popular Republicans can lose in Massachusetts in Presidential election years – ask former Governor Bill Weld, who ran for the Senate after receiving an eye-popping 71% of the vote in his 1994 reelection. Weld lost to John Kerry by seven points, 52% to 45%, helped in no small part by Bill Clinton’s 33-point romp in Massachusetts.

So sure, Brown can lose. He starts in a strong position for reelection, though, and it will take an exceptional campaign to unseat him.

Dave’s Redistricting Application is now a project of ProgressiveCongress.org. Woohoo!

[Update: CA is ready!]

This means that more members and visitors of Progressive Congress will get to know about DRA and that more users of DRA will get to know about Progressive Congress. This means that the Progressive Congress team will be providing advice and guidance for DRA. (Some of Darcy’s suggestions have already been included in the app, in fact.) This means that Progressive Congress and DRA will be teaming up to help you better understand what’s going on with redistricting and what you can do about it. And this means working together to make government better for the people!

This also means that you can now make tax-deductible contributions to support the Dave’s Redistricting Project. Your support, whether it’s $10 or $500 will help keep the project going with the rest of the 2010 data, election data and more features. It will also help support the awesome work done by ProgressiveCongress.org

Cross-posted at DailyKos. Latest DRA info below the fold.

Here’s the latest on the application:

— 29 states now have 2010 data. The new ones are AZ, CT, ID, OH, PA, WI. (CA soon!)

— VA and MD have election data, now including actual vote counts (except absentees are not places in any precinct and so are left out). More election data expected soon.

— Bug workaround: if you have trouble with the Pan control, you should be able to Save your work now.

Thanks to all of you users. Keep the feedback coming. Thank you SwingStateProject! Special thanks to Darcy Burner for making this partnership a reality.

• AZ-Sen: This is amusingly insane. I’m certainly all for it!

• CA-Sen: Our long national nightmare is finally over: Meg Whitman says she will “definitely not” run against Sen. Diane Feinstein (D) next year. Rather, she says she’s going to spend time campaigning for fellow rich guy Mitt Romney. (Also, here’s an amusing tidbit: Earlier this year, she joined the board of none other than Hewlett-Packard – the company her 2010 Republican ticket-mate Carly Fiorina nearly ran into the ground.)

• CT-Sen: In an interesting development, fans of magical realism have been making a push for Borges to enter the Connecticut Senate race. Ah, wait. What’s that? Fuck. So, um, former state Treasurer Frank Borges (D), who left office in 1993, says supporters are asking him to run, and while’s he’s thinking about it, he’s set no timetable for a decision. Borges is CEO of a private equity firm (so I’m guessing he’s pretty rich), and he’d be the state’s first black senator if successful.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) is starting to sound like a “no” for the Senate race. Now that he’s scored a spot on the Ways & Means Committee, he says he’s less likely to seek a promotion. In fact, he very explicitly said: “If this hadn’t happened, I would have been looking to do something else.” That sort of talk has to make you figure that the GOP’s takeover of the House has actually been bad news for one Republican: NRSC chair John Cornyn.

In much sillier (and related) news, Cornyn told The Hill that he had tried to recruit former congressman and current MSNBC host Joe Scarborough to run against Bill Nelson. Undoubtedly, this made make Rep. Connie Mack a little hot under the collar, because the NRSC wigged out and Cornyn weirdly tried to claim the story was “not true,” even though Scarborough confirmed it. Rather, said Cornyn, he had been asking Joescar about a potential Senate run in… New York. (The Atlanta-born, Alabama-educated, Florida-elected Scarborough’s tv show is based in NYC.) Then, the NRSC took a dump on Joe, saying: “There are already a number of far stronger candidates looking at the Florida Senate race….” Whoops!

Also, there’s a tenative Biden alert! – the VPOTUS supposedly will come down to Florida later this month to raise money for Bill Nelson.

• IA-Sen: Wingnut Bob Vander Plaats, who did surprisingly well against now-Gov. Terry Branstad in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary (with an assist from some Democratic ratfuckers), was asked whether he’s contemplating a run against Sen. Tom Harkin in 2014. Said BVP: “I think about it daily. That doesn’t mean I’m going to run against him, Ok. I don’t know.”

• IN-Sen: Now this is fucking interesting. I’m just going to let SSP commenter Bob Bobson summarize the situation:

WISH-TV’s Jim Shella noted on his blog today that that there exists a hypothetical but plausible scenario in which state Democrats could sue to overturn the results of last year’s election for Secretary of State by arguing that Charlie White wasn’t a valid candidate for office. That’s not really anything new, and has been rumored in the Hoosier political press for a while.

What is new here is that Shella points out that such a lawsuit, were it ruled in favor of the Democrats, wouldn’t just remove White from office, but would also make the Republicans a “minor party” under state law. SSPers probably remember the whole [10]% threshold thing from the Colorado governor’s race last year where Dan Maes’ trainwreck candidacy nearly cost the Colorado Republicans their ballot position as a major party, and there’s a similar regulation at play here. The difference is that in Indiana, it’s the Secretary of State race that decides which parties are “major,” and the threshold is [also] 10%. If White’s candidacy is invalidated, though, that could mean that the Republicans, legally, received zero votes in the SoS race last year.

That outcome would also mean that their nominating process for statewide candidates for the next four years would be via convention and not primary. And that means Dick Lugar becomes the next Bob Bennett.

In related news, Sean Keefer, who as Deputy Secretary of State was no. 2 to Charlie White (and also served as his chief of staff, and before that, as his campaign manager) just resigned, and there’s a report that White’s spokesman will also quit. Even better: White staged a totally bizarro impromptu press conference on the courthouse steps after a hearing in which he pleaded not guilty to all charges. The presser only ended after White’s attorney told him to “shut up” and led him away by the elbow. Fun times!

• MA-Sen: Deborah Shah, a consultant to Newton Mayor Setti Warren, sent around an email (I’m guessing to some listservs) looking for college kids interested in working on a potential Warren Senate campaign, set to be staffing up at the end of April. (Aren’t most students stressing about finals at that point?) Shah says that “This is just the first step to make sure you’re prepared.”

• MI-Sen: Pete Hoekstra hasn’t yet said if one of these days a Congressman from Michigan’s gonna come back home and run a Senate race, but he expects to decide this spring. One tea leaf suggests he’s rather stay focused on his lame-ass-looking consulting firm: He just shuttered his House campaign account, which he could have instantly turned into a Senate fund.

• OH-Sen: In response to ex-Gov. Ted Strickland calling him “scurrilous,” “bigoted,” “reprehensible,” and “laughable,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel “said Strickland is a good person.” Maybe that makes Mandel look big, I dunno, but does it also make him look like a wuss to his biggest supporters, the teabag contingent? At the same q-and-a with other GOP elected officials, SoS Jon Husted (who has declined a run) said he’d like to see Mandel take on Sherrod Brown, while AG (and ex-Sen.) Mike DeWine much more amusingly said that a Brown-Mandel matchup would be “fascinating.” Is that Mr. Spock fascinating, or a trainwreck fascinating?

• AZ-08: Rep. Gabby Giffords’ doctors gave an update on the congresswoman’s recovery on Friday, and they sounded very upbeat about her progress (though they noted that it’s not a sure thing whether she’ll attend her husband’s space shuttle launch next month, contra what a staffer said last week). Meanwhile, 2010 Republican candidate Jesse Kelly, who very nearly beat Giffords, set up a new campaign committee for a potential rematch.

• CA-37: Though Rep. Laura Richardson (D) previously denied it, a letter of resignation sent by her former district scheduler suggests that the congresswoman is indeed the subject of an ethics probe, pertaining to misuse of staff. Now Richardson’s office is simply refusing to comment. The staffer’s letter is really brutal, citing “constant verbal and emotional abuse” and requests that she perform tasks “on the ethical borderline.” I can’t imagine Richardson has a very long future in Congress (she originally won office in a 2007 special with just 37% of the primary vote in this very blue district), so who do you think could replace her?

• NM-01, NM-Sen: State Sen. Eric Griego (D), who is considering a run for the House if fellow Dem Martin Heinrich decides to go for the Senate race, says he expects “the smoke to clear” by April or May, in terms of people making decisions about what they’re gonna do.

• NV-02: Jon Ralston says that retired Navy Commander Kirk Lippold is “in” the race for Nevada’s 2nd congressional district, which ought to have a very interesting GOP primary, at the least. Lippold, who was captain of the USS Cole when it was bombed by Al Qaeda a decade ago, was touted as a possible challenger to Harry Reid last year.

• NV-03: Freshman Rep. Joe Heck was the only Republican to vote against defunding the Federal Housing Administration Refinance Program (designed to help homeowners with underwater mortgages). Anticipating criticism, he put out a video press release (an actual video press release, not a “tv ad with a tiny buy designed to get free media attention”) defending his vote. Could Heck be worried about getting teabagged?

• NY-26: Republican nominee Jane Corwin just received the Independence Party’s nomination for the special election as well, and ya know, this is a pretty darn good demonstration of why the Democrats’ dithering on selecting a candidate has been a pretty dumb move. I mean, even if the IP wanted to endorse a Dem, they couldn’t! (Or at least, couldn’t do so yet.)

Anyhow, 2010 NY-Sen-A GOP primary loser (in other words, the guy who couldn’t beat the guy who got vaporized by Chuck Schumer) Gary Bernsten sent out an email asking supporters to help teabagger David Bellavia petition his way on to the ballot as an independent. I’d be surprised if this effort is successful, though – Bellavia has only until March 19 to collection 3,500 signatures. Crazy Jack Davis is doing the same thing, but at least he has a shot, since he’s putting his millions to work for him.

• SD-AL: I linked this story in the Pete Hoekstra item above (see MI-Sen), but ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has also closed her campaign account, suggesting that Steve Israel’s efforts to woo her into a rematch with Republican Kristi Noem haven’t been successful. The Fix has a long list of other Dems (and a few Repubs) who have shut down their FEC committees – click the link for the rest.

• TX-LG: Texas Ag. Comm’r Todd Staples isn’t ruling out a run for Lt. Gov., a seat which could become open if the current occupant, David Dewhurst, wins Kay Bailey Hutchison’s Senate seat. Other possible aspirants include Comptroller Susan Combs and Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. (And yes, since this is Texas and everyone I just mentioned holds statewide office, that means they’re all Republicans.) While you might be wondering why we’re going so far down into the weeds here, the LG job is considered one of the most powerful in Texas (some like to say even more powerful that the governor’s), because the LG is also President of the state Senate.

• Wisconsin Recall: The DLCC just launched a TV ad against GOP state Sen. Luther Olsen, attacking him for flip-flopping to support Scott Walker’s anti-union legislation – though it does not mention anything about the recall effort which Olsen is (among others) the subject of. The ad (which you can watch here) is running in Green Bay, and a spokesman tells me that the buy is “about 1000 points.”

Also, check out this piece from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert, which begins:

Number of state lawmakers removed from office by recall in all of American history: 13.

Number of state lawmakers currently facing recall campaigns in Wisconsin: 16.

• Hawaii: In order to avoid another Charles Djou, the Hawaii House just passed a bill to institute instant runoff voting (aka IRV) for special Congressional elections. Of course, they could just hold primaries instead of jungle elections.

• WATN?: Scott Lee Cohen, the disastrous Lt. Gov. candidate whose utterly failed gubernatorial bid probably saved Pat Quinn’s ass, is hoping to replace ex-state Sen. Rickey Hendon, who resigned last month. Given that the replacement gets picked by a panel of Chicago Democratic Party committeemen, I’m guessing that Cohen’s chances are somewhere between zero and nil.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Idaho: At least one local expert is confirming what we observed last week: population shrinkage in the 2nd CD will likely require it to absorb the entire city of Boise, which is currently split between the state’s two districts.

• New Jersey: Richard Lee has some interesting historical details about the 1990 round of redistricting, focusing on two politicians who are still part of New Jersey’s congressional delegation today: Rep. Frank Pallone and Sen. Bob Menendez. Menendez’s federal career was launched when New Jersey’s loss of a seat led to the creation of an Hispanic-friendly district. Pallone, meanwhile, was targeted for elimination by his own party. Said one Republican: “I’d like to see Mr. Pallone defeated. But apparently I don’t want to see him defeated as much as the Democrats do.” Obviously, Pallone lived to fight another day.

Meanwhile, Rutgers Prof. (and state redistricting tiebreak vote) Alan Rosenthal supposedly put out a memo outlining his vision for a fair legislative map, reportedly leading state Dems to believe their vision is much more closely aligned with Rosenthal’s than is the Republicans’. But it doesn’t seem like this memo, if it exists, has been released online.

So I finally registered on SSP and this map is my first posting of North Carolina. It’s intended to result in 9 safe GOP districts, all of which are 57% McCain or above, and 4 safe majority-minority Dem districts, two of which are plurality VAP black.

Overview:

From East to West:

Finally, a close up of the Triangle and the Triad:

All districts are within 500 of ideal population as follows:

Obama/McCain       White/Black/Hispanic/Asian/Native/other

NC-1 (Blue)        G.K. Butterfield (D)

67.5-32.0        40.9/47.8/7.4/1.7/0.7/1.5

The 1st loses a bit of the coastal region but the only major change is a snaking addition into Raleigh to pick up heavily Democratic and minority voters so as to have enough population.

Safe Democratic

NC-2 (Green)        Renee Ellmers (R), Larry Kissell (D)/Mike McIntyre (D)

40.7-58.4        69.3/15.2/9.5/2.5/1.6/2.0

The 2nd undergoes significant changes as it loses area in Raleigh proper and the counties to the northeast and gains heavily Republican territory to the south and west from the current 7th and 8th districts.  Ellmers should be safe here barring a primary challenge from another Republican, but seeing as how she’s very conservative this shouldn’t be a huge problem for her. Incidentally, Kissell’s home in Biscoe and possibly McIntyre’s in Lumberton have both been placed into the 2nd.

Safe Republican

NC-3 (Purple)        Walter Jones (R)

40.8-58.3        76.5/14.6/5.5/1.1/0.4/1.8

The 3rd loses its appendage towards Wilson and Rocky Mount and gains one snaking down the rest of the coast to include Republican friendly territory from the current 7th. Jones’ district becomes slightly more Democratic but that shouldn’t be much of a problem for him.

Safe Republican

NC-4 (Red)        David Price (D)

77.4-21.8        41.6/37.9/11.9/5.9/0.4/2.2

The 4th loses all of the southern 3rd and northwestern section of Wake County and instead bisects it to pick up heavily Democratic and minority voters.  The most radical change to the 4th, and what makes this configuration so devastating, is that it extends an arm across Alamance and Guilford counties, picking up very heavily minority and Democratic territory from Greensboro and High Point and in the process screwing over Brad Miller. The 4th is one of the most Democratic districts in the South and would be one of the most Democratic MMD to elect a white Democrat.

Safe Democratic

NC-5 (Yellow)        Virginia Foxx (R)

41.2-57.6        80.7/9.0/7.0/1.6/0.2/1.5

The 5th loses territory around Winston Salem and the counties to the north and west while trading territory with the 11th around Marion, Lenoir, and Hickory.  The district also adds territory in northern Mecklenburg.  Virginia Foxx might have some difficulty here since the 5th has become a moderate amount more Democratic and undergoes a moderate to large change in territory, however this is due to her weakness as a candidate.  Even Foxx should be all right here, and a generic R will have little to no trouble.

Safe Republican

NC-6 (Teal)        Howard Coble (R)

41.0-57.9        75.6/12.8/7.8/1.9/0.4/1.5

The 6th keeps most of its base in Greensboro and suburban Guilford county while the only substantial changes include trading Moore for Chatham county and taking in some outer heavily Democratic precincts in Guilford so that the surrounding Republicans can be shored up. I accidentally drew Coble out of the 6th since he actually lives in Summerfield, but that shouldn’t really be a problem since he’s represented much of the district for decades and probably won’t serve that many more terms anyway. It will probably trend a little Democratic over the decade but should be safe for Coble or any other country club Republican.

Safe Republican

NC-7 (Gray)        Open/Mike McIntyre (D)

63.3-36.0        41.0/37.2/9.5/1.5/8.2/2.6

And here is where the fun begins. I could have just done an 8-3-2 map leaving Shuler and McIntyre in competitive districts, or another configuration of 9-4, but after playing around with DRA a little, I realized it was possible to draw a 4th (heavily gerrymandered) majority-minority district in southeastern NC. So here goes:

The 7th loses most of the whiter parts of its current configuration and adds minority heavy areas to the north in Goldsboro and to the west in territory from the current 8th. Fayetteville is now almost entirely within the 7th. All but one voting block within Mike McIntyre’s hometown of Lumberton is included in the 7th, but that is pretty much irrelevant because McIntyre wouldn’t last two seconds in a primary here seeing as how the district is significantly more Democratic than the current 7th.

Overall, the only reason the GOP would consider allowing for this configuration is that it unambiguously removes Kissell and protects Ellmers and Myrick, but at the cost of securing a seat for a significantly more liberal Democrat than McIntyre.

Safe Democratic

NC-8 (Steel Blue)        Open

40.7-58.4        68.3/18.2/9.5/1.6/0.4/1.9

The 8th here bears no resemblance to the current district and reflects just how screwed Larry Kissell would be since the surrounding districts have gobbled up the entirety of his district.  The new 8th stretches from Wake to Onslow county and is composed mostly of territory from the current 2nd and 3rd. Before 2010 there would have been the chance for a Mike McIntyre clone the right type of Democrat to win here, but Dems got absolutely slaughtered here in 2010 and have a bit of a weak bench.

Safe Republican

NC-9 (Cyan)        Sue Myrick (R)

40.4-58.7        75.8/11.3/8.6/2.4/0.3/1.6

Due to population gains the 9th had to shed a lot of territory and does so by losing all of its area in Gaston and northern Mecklenburg counties.  Since the 9th showed quite a large shift in voting patterns between 04 and 08 I added more conservative territory from the dead carcass of Larry Kissell’s 8th district with the 9th now containing blood red territory to the east of Charlotte.  This district should be safe for Myrick, but it would be interesting to see how it trends over the whole decade due to large gains in population.

Safe Republican

NC-10 (Magenta)        Patrick McHenry (R)

41.9-57.1        78.1/11.4/6.2/2.3/0.3/1.6

The 11th changes significantly in order to allow Republicans to remove Shuler in the neighboring 11th. The district picks up the remnants of the old 9th in Gaston County and reaches an arm into Ashville to annex the majority of its Democratic base.  To compensate for this lunge towards the left, the 10th district trades Democratic leaning Hickory, Lenoir, and Morganton to the 5th in exchange for more dyed-in-the-wool Republicans.  The district becomes significantly more Democratic from extremely safe Republican to just pretty safe Republican, but McHenry now represents a lot of new territory and could be vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Safe Republican

NC-11 (Chartreuse)        Heath Shuler (D)

41.7-57.0        87.6/3.9/5.0/0.7/1.4/1.6

Ah, the other beauty of this map. Since the 9th is able to shift east unhindered by Larry Kissell’s 8th, the 10th is able to also shift east, which provides ultra conservative territory for the 11th to pick up. Ashville and Marion are almost entirely removed from the 11th which deprives Shuler of Democratic base voters, however it is plausible that his appeal to conservative-leaning Dems and Indies could provide a path to victory. Generic R would be heavily favored against Shuler and all but guaranteed against a Generic D.

Likely Republican vs. Shuler

Safe Republican vs. Generic D

NC-12 (Medium Blue)        Mel Watt (D)

73.2-26.1        35.3/43.1/15.3/3.9/0.3/2.1

The 12th loses all of Greensboro, High Point, and Thomasville, but picks up large parts of eastern Charlotte from the old 8th.  There’s nothing else but some minor changes, such as not hugging the county line between Charlotte and Winston-Salem to free up extra Republican voters. There’s no point in crying about not splitting towns and counties when it doesn’t constitute a back door veto on a Democratic gerrymander. Republicans have stated that they won’t draw anything like the current 8th, but it still remains an effective vote sink when drawn from Charlotte to Winston-Salem.

Safe Democratic

NC-13 (Salmon)        Open/Brad Miller (D)

42.0-57.0        77.8/13.0/5.9/1.6/0.3/1.4

Karma has it out for Brad Miller with this map, although pretty much any GOP effort guarantees he’s finished, which is quite a shame.  The 13th loses all of its heavily democratic territory in Greensboro, Burlington, and Cary, and most of it in Raleigh in exchange for the most GOP-friendly parts of northern Wake County. Additionally, the 13th moves westward to pick up large amounts of territory from the 5th by extending across to Yadkin County. Since I didn’t know exactly where Brad Miller lives in central Raleigh, it’s possible he lives in either the 1st or the 13th, but that’s utterly irrelevant since the 13th no longer contains his urban bases in Wake and Guilford counties.

Safe Republican

Intended result:

Summary:

Republicans shore up all of their incumbents, most importantly Ellmers and Myrick, while dividing up fast growing Wake and Mecklenburg counties among various buffered districts. Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, and Mike McIntyre are dead men walking. Miller gets replaced by a conservative Republican, Kissell has no district and a conservative Republican wins the new 8th to the east. McIntyre is defeated in the primary by a much more liberal, minority Democrat if he runs in the new 7th. Heath Shuler likely loses to a Republican without the Democratic base in Ashville. Furthermore, by removing Shuler, Kissell, and McIntyre in 2012 the GOP prevents a statewide challenge from a moderate-to-conservative Democratic sitting congressman in 2016.

This configuration is made entirely possible by its four majority minority Dem vote sinks which lock in the 9-4 split, assuming that Shuler loses, for most, if not all of the decade. Additionally, the 4th is a 77%!!!1!1! Obama district yet only 54.2% VAP minority, and is an ambitious radical, socialist, atheist Marxist’s Democrat’s wet dream.

Now… obviously this map would draw myriad lawsuits after all of two seconds, and state Republicans have claimed they won’t attempt anything like the current 12th, but they were also clamoring for independent redistricting until they found themselves in the majority. It’s not sleek and pretty, and it could only care a little less about city and county lines, but if this map has any chance of surviving in court then having 9 safe seats is much smarter for the Republicans than having 8 or 10 shaky seats with the added bonus that anyone who won the 4 Dem districts would likely be too liberal to win statewide.

And as an added bonus, North Carolina with 5 majority minority districts:



All are majority minority voting age population, and the first remains majority black, but barely so.

What do you all think?

As a native Virginian and Democrat, I was very excited when Dave was able to add voting data for Virginia to his redistricting app because of how it would ease tinkering with Virginia.

Naturally, the map I produced here is entirely unrealistic, if not because of the shape and scope of some of the districts I drew but because of the fact that the GOP controls the Virginia House of Delegates and the governor’s mansion. With the Democrats controlling the State Senate, it seems likely that a incumbent-protection map will be drawn this time around.

However, I set this map up to create the opportunity for Democrats to control seven of the state’s eleven House seats. The result was more or less a 6-1-4 map (7-4), with a D+3 seat in the Tidewater as the swing-iest district.

Without further adieu, here is the final product:

VA-01 (Gray)

Appropriately, we’ll start with CD-1, which stretches northwest from its most southern point in eastern Hampton in the Tidewater (as well as below Richmond) to the edge of the Blue Ridge Mountains in Greene and Madison Counties, as well as all the way into the outer D.C. suburbs. Clearly, communities of interest did not come into play with this map.

Here’s the part that goes south of Richmond and Petersburg and down into eastern Hampton:

And the northern part of the district:

The statistics for this district as follows (NOTE: Dev. stands for deviation from the ideal population total):

VA-02 (Blue)

The Virginia 2nd is the most contestable district on this map with only a slight Democratic edge. Encompassing the Eastern Shore, part of Virginia Beach, and part of Norfolk, it could be best held by an ex-military moderate Dem, given the large military community in the area. Just don’t bring back Glenn Nye, please.

Here is the Virginia Beach/Norfolk part of the district, with the city outlines highlighted in pink:

The most Republican parts of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake are taken by VA-03 to give this district its slight Dem lean.

And the statistics for this district:

VA-03 (Purple)

The third Congressional District takes up parts of the current VA-03 represented by Bobby Scott but is not a minority-majority district.

It is not a strong Dem district but it has a very solid Democratic base in its portions of Hampton, Newport News, and its small parts of Norfolk and Portsmouth. If I had left the parts of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach that are in this district in VA-02, I could have made that district about 50-50 and this one more than 60-40 but again, I was trying to make a map with a good shot at seven Democratic representatives.

Here is the part of the district that winds around central Suffolk. One side goes into the southwest corner of Suffolk, which is one of the fastest-growing cities in the state, growing more than 25% between 2000 and 2010. The other juts into Southampton County above Franklin, taking one precinct from that small independent city (a 52-48 McCain precinct).

Here’s the Newport News/Hampton section of VA-03, also encompassing the city of Williamsburg with its university population from the College of William & Mary.

Lastly, the statistics for this district:

VA-04 (Yellow)

Here we have the VRA required minority-majority district. Fifty percent of the population is black; it is also about 6.5 percent Hispanic. It is chiefly made up of the state capital, Richmond, as well as probably the most African-American city in the state, Petersburg. It stretches down into Emporia and all the way east through Suffolk, Chesapeake, and into Portsmouth to also pick up more minority-heavy precincts. I would have preferred to leave the district at 46 or 47 percent, with blacks + Hispanics equaling over 50 percent but I’m under the impression that the law and the nature of Virginia politics would necessitate the minority-majority district having at least a 50 percent African-American population.

Here is the Richmond, Petersburg, and Hopewell section:

And the Suffolk and Portsmouth part:

The statistics for this district:

VA-05 (Red)

Despite what it may look like, this district is contiguous. Barely.

The district is made up of suburban Richmond and snakes all the way down to and along the North Carolina border for quite some distance. Just north of Emporia, at the top of Greensville County, the district barely connects west to part of Brunswick County to remain contiguous.

The district also makes its way up north to part of Spotsylvania County, not far away from what Virginians typically refer to as Northern Virginia.

The statistics for VA-05:

VA-06 (Green)

The most convoluted and gerrymandered district on this map is most certainly the sixth district. A friend of mine looked at what I had created and called it the “Virginia Python,” which seems an apt name for it. It essentially connects a series of college towns and strong minority areas to form a fairly Democratic district.

In the northern part of the district we have the liberal bastion of Charlottesville, where my alma mater, the University of Virginia, is located. Surrounding the city is Albemarle County, an increasingly blue part of the state. The most northern part of this district, however, is my home city of Harrisonburg, which is a university town as well (James Madison University and a small Mennonite college). The demographic trends of that city are the kind you want to see in a Democratic district. It has gotten bluer and bluer with each Presidential election as both the student population and the Hispanic population have grown steadily. In fact, the city of Harrisonburg is, per capita, one of the most diverse cities in the state. Each of its five precincts is over 8 percent Hispanic, with two having 16 and 18 percent, and one with 28 percent.

You’ll notice that the district also extends to Lexington in the west, the home of Washington & Lee University (and the Virginia Military Institute, though I expect it is not the major source of the town’s 61 percent Obama vote).

Moving southeast, the district meanders through parts of southern Virginia that have heavy black populations, as well as another university town, Farmville, where Longwood University is located.

Lastly, as we move southwest, the district passes through the most Democratic parts of Lynchburg but more importantly this part of the district makes its way down to Roanoke, Blacksburg, and Radford. Roanoke is the largest city in the western part of the state, with about 97,000 people as of the 2010 census. Blacksburg, the home of Virginia Tech (the state’s biggest university) and Radford (home of Radford University) are also blue areas this district takes in.

To the very far south, the district adds in the fairly African-American cities of Danville and Martinsville, as well as the areas of Halifax, Pittsyvlania, Henry, and Franklin Counties that are more Democratic.

The statistics for the “Virginia Python”:

VA-07 (Navy Blue)

This is the most conservative district on the map, stretching from the far west corner of what is really Southwest Virginia (SWVA) into the more central southern part. SWVA has a strong union tradition in some of its counties due to the coal industry; however, the strength of unions and Democrats in general is clearly on the wane, illustrated by the surprising (to some) loss by Blue Dog Rick Boucher in the current VA-09 that makes up much of this area in 2010.

The statistics for VA-07:

VA-08 (Brown)

This conservative district makes up much of what is currently the VA-06 represented by Republican Bob Goodlatte. It stretches from Wytheville in SWVA to Winchester around the Maryland border.

I drew VA-08 to curl around Radford, Blacksburg, and Roanoke while taking much of Salem (a much more conservative independent city than most any part of Roanoke right next door). Here’s a close up of that:

The statistics for this district:

VA-09 (Neon Green)

Finally, we have reached Northern Virginia (NoVA), the strategic lynch-pin in all Virginia Democratic strategies from here on out. This is the area of the state that is key to the transformation of Virginia from a sure-thing in the Republican column to its new status as a swing state. In drawing three NoVa districts, I wanted to create a fairly well-balanced trio that would all be strongly Democratic. VA-09 is the “Arlington” district in NoVA, encompassing the very blue county that abuts Washington, D.C. The district also makes it way through Falls Church and out all the way into the more developed and liberal parts of Loudon County, the fastest growing county in the state, which saw a more than 30 percent increase in population from 2000 to 2010.

The statistics for this district:

VA-10 (Pink)

VA-10 contains all of Alexandria, one of the bluest cities or counties in Virginia, but also meanders out through Fairfax City, and all the way west to Manassas, taking in large chunks of Fairfax County, the state’s most populous entity (over 1 million people) in the process. The demographic and political trends of this area are generally favorable for Democrats, and having Alexandria in it almost guarantees that the district would remain blue even in the worst year for Democrats.

The statistics for this district:

VA-11 (Orange)

Lastly, VA-11 is made up of most of the most Democratic sections of Fairfax County (those directly next to Arlington and Alexandria) but runs through the Democratic-trending Prince William County and all the way to Fredericksburg, a growing city that is also a university town (Mary Washington University) and whose suburbs in Stafford County are increasingly Democratic.

The statistics for VA-11:

The overall statistics for the districts on this map:

Clearly, the four GOP districts are all vote sinks that would be sure-things in every election. Perhaps from the state party level this is not a great situation for Democrats because the VA GOP could focus all its resources on VA-02, as well as VA-06 and VA-03, without risking its hold on VA-01, VA-05, VA-07, and VA-08. At the same time, this map gives Democrats a good shot of holding seven seats a fair amount of the time, or at least six (a majority). Anyway, thanks for reading, Comments are definitely appreciated.

You know, I've got to say, I find it interesting that so many people think that Virginia must be destined to have a shored up 8-3 map (with Gerry Connolly's 11th district being only marginally Democratic!) With Democrats still in control of the senate, I find it hard to believe that they're just going to just allow the Republicans to hold so many seats (and just shore them up). This map is probably not the one that gets made (I don't know where incumbents live and as such I probably drew a few out of where they live), but I think it's a lot closer to what Democrats are going to try for rather than just allowing Republicans to strengthen all of their seats. So my goal here was to keep 5 Republican incumbents, shore up Gerry Connolly, weaken Scott Rigell, and make Frank Wolf's district more Democratic (thus giving us the seat when he retires).

With that said, my vision for Virginia below the fold:

(Parentheses denote previous district numbers)

VA-05 (Yellow, Robert Hurt – R)

Dem 46.7% Rep 53.3% (Dem 47.3% Rep 52.7%)
Obama 48.2% McCain 51.8% (Obama 48.5% McCain 51.5%)
Black 22%, White 71.4%
Population 727,824

Notes: Not very much has changed here, though what changes happened favor the Republicans (the change might be slight, but Tom Perriello would have lost against Virgil Goode in 2008, small changes can make big differences). Robert Hurt probably won't complain too much about this district. (Likely R)

VA-06 (Blue-Green,  Bob Goodlatte – R)

Dem 40.9% Rep 59.1% (Dem 42.1% Rep 57.9%)
Obama 42.3% McCain 57.7% (Obama 43.2% McCain 56.8%)
Population 727,426

Notes:  In order to make VA-10 more Democratic, I needed to have this district absorb the more Republican parts of NoVA, but given that either way VA-10 needed to shrink, it's a good bet that something like this would have happened anyways. The district is heavily Republican and still retains Roanoke so Goodlatte can continue being re-elected indefinitely). (Safe R)

VA-07 (Grey, Eric Cantor – R)

Dem 42.2% Rep 57.8% (Dem 43.3% Rep 56.7%)
Obama 45.2% McCain 54.8% (Obama 46.6% McCain 53.4%)
Black 15%, White 74.5%
Population 726,655

Notes: Assuming Cantor still lives in the district (which is likely given that I didn't change the district much) he's going to be very happy with its configuration, he becomes safer now. (Safe R)

VA-09 (Bright blue, Morgan Griffith – R)

District profile (old numbers)

Dem 44.2% Rep 55.8% (Dem 43.7% Rep 56.3%)
Obama 41% McCain 59% (Obama 40.3% McCain 59.7%)
Population 727,973

Notes: So VA-09 doesn't really change too much, the district becomes somewhat more Democratic, although I doubt it matters much, as it's still going to be pretty safe for Morgan Griffith, unless Rick Boucher decides to run again. Safe R (Leans R if Boucher runs).

 

VA-01 (Blue, Rob Wittman – R)

Dem  42.5% Rep 57.5% (Dem 44.8% Rep 55.2%)
Obama 45.7% McCain 54.3% (Obama 48.4% McCain 51.6%)
Black 15.7% White 73.1%
Population 727,330

Notes: This map shores up Wittman, and ensures that even in an open seat situation it'll stay with Republicans (Safe R)

 

VA-02 (Green, Robert Hurt – R)

Dem  52.4% Rep 47.6% (Dem 49.1% Rep 50.9%)
Obama 56.5% McCain 43.5% (Obama 52.4% McCain 47.6%)
Black 27.4%, White 57.2%
Population 727,531

Notes: I'm not going to lie, this district is meant to make life difficult for Scott Rigell, and I think I succeeded. To be honest, I doubt that Glenn Nye would have beaten Rigell in 2010, but then again, another Democrat could probably do it, particularly with Obama on the ballot. (Toss-up against Rigell/Likely D Open)

 

VA-04 (Red, Randy Forbes – R)

Dem 46% Rep 54% (Dem 48.2% Rep 51.8%)
Obama 48.3% McCain 51.7% (Obama 51% McCain 49%)
Black 29.5% White 61.6%
Population 726,491

Notes: This district shores up Forbes somewhat, it goes from a district that Obama won by two to won he lost by two and a half. In an open seat in the right year this district could be trouble for the Republicans, but even then they'd be favored. (Likely R)

 

 

VA-03 (Purple, Robert Scott – D)

Dem 70.1% Rep 29.9% (Dem 71.3% Rep 28.7%)
Obama 74.8% McCain 25.2% (Obama 75.7% McCain 24.3%)
Black 52.5%, White 36.6%
Population 727,748

Notes: Well this monstrosity is a carry-over from the last map, to be honest, I'm not sure if the VRA requires this district to be majority-black or simply majority-minority but I kept it like this just to be safe. If I hadn't there's a good possibility I could have made the fourth more Democratic (probably not enough to give Forbes any problems, but enough to make it competitive in an open seat).

 

 

Cross posted on my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more redistricting maps.

I was reading the recent diary on Virginia redistricting and saw people calling for a 7-4 Republican map. I decided to post this one to see how it works.

Both parties have a voice in Virginia’s redistricting process this year so expect either a quick compromise or a long battle that ends in a court drawn map. The Republicans control the Governorship and the State House but the Democrats control the State Senate. The Republicans hold an 8-3 majority of Virginia’s House seats, 3 of them were won in 2010. The Republicans will want to protect their freshman Robert Hurt (R) and Scott Rigell (R) who won in swing districts as well as Frank Wolf (R) whose district is trending Democratic. Trying to protect them all will be difficult because the Republicans will not want to create a dummymander. Therefore, I drew a 7-4 Republican map that the Republicans will like because although they lose one district, the 2nd and 5th districts are now more Republican. The Democrats should like this plan too because it strengthens the 11th district and creates a new Democratic district. I also ensured that the 3rd district’s African American population exceeded 50%. As for the districts on the map, there are 3 Safe Democratic, 1 Likely Democratic, 1 Lean Republican, 2 Likely Republican and 4 Safe Republican.

Here is a link with a map of Virginia’s current congressional districts (after clicking the link, scroll down to the bottom of the page:) http://www.nationalatlas.gov/p…

A few notes: The “Average 2000-2009” refers to the average performance of Democrats and Republicans in that district from 2000 to 2009. Change does not refer to the average performance; change refers to how well Obama performed in the new district compared to the old one. “Old Demographics” refers to the demographics of the old district in 2000.

Virginia

Virginia’s 1st Congressional District Rob Whitman (R) Blue

President 2008: Obama 143,841 47%, McCain 165,688 53%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 101,210 44%, Republicans 128,630 56%

Change: McCain +3

Demographics: 6.1% Hispanic, 19.7% African American, 68.8% White

Old Demographics: 18.4% African American, 74.7% White

Status: Safe Republican

This district becomes more Republican as it loses parts of Newport News and Hampton in the south and losing Democratic Prince William County in the north. To keep population equal with other districts, the 1st district gains Republican leaning rural counties such as New Kent. The 1st district also picks up the Delmarva Peninsula which leans Democratic but the removal of most of Newport News makes this district more Republican.

Hampton Roads

Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District Scott Rigell (R) vs. Randy Forbes (R) ? Green

President 2008: Obama 139,807 48%, McCain 152,608 52%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 101,215 46%, McCain 121,240 54%

Change: McCain +6

Demographics: 5.0% Asian, 5.9% Hispanic, 21.3% African American, 64.2% White

Old Demographics: 21.4% African American, 67.0% White

Status: Lean Republican

I could not do much to strengthen Rigell because I had to keep the 3rd district majority African American so it could not pick up many precincts that voted for Obama and had a low African American population. Anyway, I strengthened Rigell a bit by removing Hampton and most of Norfolk. I also added Republican parts of Chesapeake where Rep. Randy Forbes (R) of the 4th district lives. If he chooses to run in the 2nd, he will have the seniority advantage but more of Rigell’s current district is in the 2nd. Also, Forbes is popular because although Obama won his district, Forbes has won easily in the past few elections.

Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District Bobby Scott (D) Dark Magenta

President 2008: Obama 194,505 69%, McCain 85,991 31%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 123,854 64%, McCain 69,604 36%

Change: McCain +14

Demographics: 51.3% African American, 39.0% White

Old Demographics: 56.0% African American, 37.7% White

Status: Safe Democratic

Scott’s district gets more Republican as it loses all of Richmond and picks up less Democratic precincts from the 1st in Newport News. I kept the district majority African American by picking up African American areas in Suffolk, Petersburg, and Sussex County. Although Scott’s district becomes more Republican, it is still extremely safe for him and majority African American. He should have no problems winning reelection.

Richmond Area

Virginia’s 4th Congressional District Robert Hurt (R) vs. Randy Forbes (R) ? Red

President 2008: Obama 133,903 42%, McCain 187,735 58%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 97,669 41%, Republicans 142,126 59%

Change: McCain +17

Demographics: 23.3% African American, 71.1% White

Old Demographics: 33.1% African American, 62.0% White

Status: Safe Republican

Forbes may run here because this district contains some of his current territory in Chesterfield County and some southeastern rural counties. Hurt will run too because his home Chatham is in this district. If Forbes ran, As for Hurt’s district, I strengthened it because the Republicans will try to protect him from a tough race. I removed heavily Democratic Charlottesville from Charlottesville while adding parts of the current 4th district such as Republican Amelia County near Richmond. Hurt should have no trouble winning reelection here.

Virginia’s 5th Congressional District Vacant Eric Cantor (R) ? Yellow

President 2008: Obama 129,143 43%, McCain 175,646 57%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 92,922 40%, McCain 137,356 60%

Change: N/A

Demographics: 5.4% Hispanic, 10.8% African American, 79.9% White

Old Demographics: N/A

Status: Safe Republican

Cantor’s 7th district is now Democratic so I expect him to run here, although his home is in the 7th district. The 5th district contains much of his current territory by including some conservative rural counties near Richmond such as Goochland, Hanover County in the Richmond exurbs, Spotsylvania County in the D.C exurbs and the string of rural counties in Central Virginia in Cantor’s current district. The 5th district also picks up some far D.C exurbs though because it represents Winchester and western Loudon County. Cantor used to represent a 53% McCain district that was trending Democratic but his district is now 55% McCain and the rural areas are not trending Democratic. Cantor should be safe here.

Virginia’s 6th Congressional District Bob Goodlatte (R) Teal

President 2008: Obama 137,543 46%, McCain 162,585 54%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 102,396 44%, Republicans 130,058 56%

Change: Obama + 7

Demographics: 9.1% African American, 82.2% White

Old Demographics: 10.9% African American, 84.8% White

Status: Safe Republican

Goodlatte’s district becomes more Democratic as it loses heavily Republican Amherst County and picks up Charlottesville. The Republicans will probably want Charlottesville in Goodlatte’s district because it provided Tom Perrellio with his winning margin and more in 2008 and Goodlatte has enough Republicans in his district to offset Democratic votes in Charlottesville. Goodlatte should be safe here.

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District Vacant Gray

President 2008: Obama 186,082 61%, 121,294 McCain 39%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 124,386 54%, Republicans 105,495 46%

Change: N/A

Demographics: 6.7% Hispanic, 34.5% African American, 52.0% White

Old Demographics: N/A

Status: Safe Democratic

Republicans may decide to sacrifice one district in order to protect Robert Hurt and Eric Cantor. The 7th district also helps Scott Rigell (R) in the 2nd district because by losing Richmond, the 3rd district has to pick up African American areas currently in the 2nd district so the 3rd can remain majority African American. Anyway, the 7th district is a combination of the current 3rd, 4th and 7th districts. The 7th contains all of Richmond, all of Henrico County, Chesterfield County’s close in suburbs and Hopewell. In the current map, the Richmond area is split between three districts but the Richmond area now has its own district so Richmond area legislators should like this district. Possible candidates for this seat could be State Senator Donald McEachin (D) who represents part of Henrico County or Henry Marsh (D) who represents some heavily African American parts of the district.

Northern Virginia

Virginia’s 8th Congressional District Jim Moran (D) Slate Blue

President 2008: Obama 178,372 66%, McCain 92,487 34%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 146,592 64%, Republicans 82,791 36%

Change: McCain +7

Demographics: 12.5% Asian, 16.5% Hispanic, 9.9% African American, 57.9% White

Old Demographics: 9.5% Asian, 16.4% Hispanic, 13.4% African American, 57.1% White

Status: Safe Democratic

Moran’s district does not undergo major changes as Moran retains his base in Arlington and Alexandria. His district becomes a few points more Republican in order to protect Gerry Connelly (D) of the 11th district. Moran loses the close in suburbs near Alexandria such as Fort Washington to the 11th District. To compensate for the loss of the close in suburbs near Alexandria, the 8th district gains Democratic parts of McLean, Oakton, Herndon and Tysons Corner. Although Moran’s district is not as Democratic as its current form, Moran should have no problems winning reelection in the general or the primary.

Virginia’s 9th Congressional District Morgan Griffith (R) Periwinkle

President 2008: Obama 111,232 40%, McCain 166,719 60%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 94,587 43%, Republicans 123,531 57%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 3.7% African American, 92.1% White

Old Demographics: 3.8% African American, 93.3% White

Status: Likely Republican

Griffith’s district does not undergo major changes as he loses Alleghany County which usually votes Democratic at a local level. The 9th district had slow population growth so the 9th gained Franklin and Bedford Counties which are both strongly Republican. It is possible Rick Boucher (D) who previously held this district will run again but it will be more difficult for him because of the new Republican counties in the district. Anyway, it was difficult to strength Griffith without creating convoluted lines or making the 6th district Democratic enough for a competitive race.

Virginia’s 10th Congressional District Frank Wolf (R) Deep Pink

President 2008: Obama 149,174 53%, McCain 132,937 47%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 107,560 49%, Republicans 113,791 51%

Change: McCain +1

Demographics: 17.9% Asian, 11.0% Hispanic, 6.9% African American, 60.7% White

Old Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 7.1% Hispanic, 6.7% African American, 77.2% White

Status: Likely Republican

Northern Virginia is trending Democratic so drawing Wolf a district that will be safe Republican in the long term is impossible but I drew a district that should protect him for the next few years. I removed the western part of the district around Winchester which leans Republican but I also removed the Democratic parts of Herndon, McLean and Manassas. Although the 10th district is growing quickly, it had to gain a few more areas so it gained some moderate areas near Fairfax City and some conservative parts of Prince William County. Wolf is popular so he should hold this seat. If he retires though, Democrats will have a shot here.

Virginia’s 11th Congressional District Gerry Connelly (D) chartreuse

President 2008: Obama 149,097 60%, McCain 99,321 40%

Average 2000-2009: Democrats 105,702 55%, Republicans 88,099 45%

Change: Obama +5

Demographics: 10.6% Asian, 21.4% Hispanic, 17.4% African American, 46.9% White

Old Demographics: 10.9% Asian, 9.1% Hispanic, 10.1% African American, 66.8% White

Status: Likely Democratic

Connelly faced a tough race last year from Keith Fimian (R) in 2010 which is a high water mark for Republicans. If Connelly could survive in 2010, he can survive any year barring a major scandal. Anyway, I strengthened Connelly so he would not have another tough race. I removed the moderate areas near Fairfax City, Fimian’s home Oakton, and conservative parts of Prince William County. I added Democratic areas near Alexandria and Democratic Manassas. These changes should protect Connelly

With the release of census data for Wisconsin, we can also crunch population numbers by State Senate district – and to see potentially how redistricting could affect the various senators with recall campaigns mounted against them.

Without further ado, here’s the table – the eight rows highlighted in green are the eight recallable Republican senators.

As also shown in the data by Congressional district, there’s a shift from Milwaukee to Madison, population wise.  The Milwaukee County based districts (3rd – 8th) are all quite underpopulated, while the Madison-based 16th, 26th, and 27th are now overpopulated.  The MSP exurbs – now expanding into St. Croix County – have also grown, as shown in the overpopulation in the 10th (Harsdorf, R).

Will this affect the Recallable 8?  I’m skeptical – it’s unlikely, IMO, that we’ll get anything friendly from an unfriendly trifecta. Likely, the relative stability means that not too much will have to change – most of the recallable eight have districts that were stable population wise.  Harsdorf’s 10th will have to lose some – but that could be easily some Dem-leaning territory given to Robert Jauch’s 25th (D).

The Milwaukee County districts will need to expand outward…which could conveniently remove the Dem-leaning North Shore from Alberta “anything but” Darling’s 8th.  Additionally, given that Milwaukee County is surrounded on three sides by heavily Republican suburbs, it’s pretty easy to slice that pizza.  On the flip side, the growth in Dane County hasn’t reached a point yet where that would have to be sliced four ways.

So, unless we actually manage to recall Hopper, Darling, Kapanke, et al., the census numbers don’t necessarily indicate any help to come from Senate redistricting…especially not with an unfriendly legislature drawing the maps.