Tag: House

You all know what’s at stake in this election. Democrats have a rare opportunity to not only win big in November, but to sweep out a great deal of crusty, Bush-enabling Republicans in the House. I know you guys are working hard to make this happen as you donate your time and money to local campaigns. However, there’s one thing we can all do that could have a big impact on how many districts Democrats seriously contest, and that’s encouraging the slowpokes in the House Democratic caucus to pay their DCCC dues in full.

Working behind the scenes with Chris Bowers over at Open Left, we’ve dug up a list of House members who are behind on their dues to the DCCC. All told, we’re looking at 54 members and $6.5 million worth of missing dues. Campaign contact information for each member is available here.

Final media buys will be made by the DCCC in just a few days, so ever dollar that the DCCC can scrape together means a great deal. If you want to help out, please call a few incumbents on this list who are close to you and urge them to pay up to the DCCC. As Bowers says, be polite and fair. You can also consult this second list of incumbents facing token opposition, and encourage them to be even more generous.

Time’s a-wastin’. Let’s do this thing, people!

Two new polls now shows longtime Pennsylvania Democrat John Murtha in serious trouble for reelection.  http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ra…

His Republican challenger has an internal poll that shows the Republican up 48%-35% and a local newspaper has Murtha up just 46%-41%.  

If anything, Murtha needs to quickly start hitching himself to Obama’s coattails if he wants to win reelection.  We already appear likely to lose Kanjorski in the solidly Democratic PA-11 and now we may lose Murtha as well.  This is not good.  

Larry Sabato, professor of Political Science at the University of Virginia and director of the Center for Politics has updated his U.S. House predictions.  

Overall, it is very good news for as.  More over the flip.

Here are today’s changes:

AL-02 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

AZ-03 Shadegg Likely R to Leans R

CA-04 OPEN Likely R to Toss-up

CA-50 Bilbray Likely R to Leans R

CT-04 Shays Leans R to Leans D

FL-08 Keller Toss-up to Leans D

FL-16 Mahoney Leans R to Likely R

FL-24 Feeney Toss-up to Leans D

FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart Leans R to Toss-up

ID-01 Sali Likely R to Leans R

IL-10 Kirk Leans R to Toss-up

IN-03 Souder Safe R to Leans R

KS-02 Boyda Leans D to Toss-up

KY-02 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

LA-06 Cazayoux Toss-up to Leans D

MD-01 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

MI-07 Walberg Toss-up to Leans D

MI-09 Knollenberg Leans R to Toss-up

MN-03 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D

MN-06 Bachmann Safe R to Toss-up

MO-06 Graves Likely R to Leans R

NE-02 Terry Likely R to Leans R

NJ-05 Garrett Likely R to Leans R

NM-01 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D

NM-02 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D

NY-26 OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

NC-08 Hayes Toss-up to Leans D

OH-16 OPEN Toss-up to Leans D

PA-03 English Leans R to Toss-up

SC-01 Brown Safe R to Likely R

TX-07 Culberson Likely R to Leans R

WV-02 Capito Likely R to Leans R

WY-AL OPEN Leans R to Toss-up

Things are looking for good for us.  With today’s changes, Sabato is now predicting us to pick off 17 Republican seats.  And that doesn’t include toss ups and upsets from the “likely Republican” and “leans Republican” columns.  Nine Republican seats have moved to “leans Democratic” today alone.

Another eleven Republican seats have been moved to tossup status.  In all, 30 Republican seats were moved in our direction.  Addtionally, Don Cazayoux’s race has been upgraded to “leans Democratic.”

The only sour notes for us is that Tim Mahoney’s race was further downgraded to “likely Republican” and Nancy Boyda is now a tossup.

Federal Election Commission data excludes “independent expenditures” for candidates .  Include that, however, and the picture looks much better for Democrats who are dominating Independent Expenditures by a large margin.  Combining data from SSP’s IE Tracker with 3rd quarter FEC exenditures and the oicture gets clearer and happier.

Take NY-25 where Alice Kryzan won a surprising primary win.  Kryzan has been outspent about 2-1 by Christopher Lee (1,062 K to 528 K).  Lee is one of the larger self funders among GOP House candidates furnishing $650 K.  And yet, the advantage of Mr. Moneybags is eliminated if one counts the huge 884 to 77 Democratic lead in independent expenditures in the district.  It is Lee who has been outspent by a 1412 k to 1139 k margin.

Other NY House seats show a similar trend.  Eric Massa has outspent the increasingly desperate Randy Kuhl by a solid 1261 K to 883 K margin.  But Kuhl also faces a 182 k to 87 K deficit for independent expenditures putting him behind 1446 K to 970 K for double barrelled expenditures.  Dan Maffei in NY-25 stretches his lead from 1364 K to 197 K to 1509 K to 197 K.  I didn’t even record NY-13 because I only followed competitive money races.

Jim Himes may have less reserves but he’s clearly outspent Chris Shays to date by a combines 3288 K to 1987 K.  One reason why I think Shays will go down this time.  Another reason would be Shays assinine statements in support of torture.  There is no moderate torture Chrissy.

Independent Expenditures give big edges to Linda Stender and John Adler in NJ but have yet to kick in to either Dennis Shulman or Josh Zeitz.  Stender’s 1045 to 106 edge in ie gives her a combined 2685 to 856 k edge in cycle to date expenditures.  Adler leads bya combined 2-1 at 1849 to 911 over Myers.  A late half million would seal the deal for Shulman and might move Zeitz over the complacent, slow spending Christopher Smith.  Shulman has already raised more money than any Garrett opponent (911 K) and although outspent he’s staying in the game.  A late hammer ala Nancy Boyda in 2006 would do the job.

Two PA Democrats are benefiting big time from independent expenditures but others have not.  Phil English has badly outspent Kathy Dahlkemper, 1631 K to 456 k but the IE bucks have kept Kathy in the game and kept Philly the Hutt to a modest 2250 to 1795 overall edge.  He’s on the verge of coming down despite a big fund raising effort.  Just like Leia choking off Jabba in on eof the Star War movies.  Paul Kanjorski, the embattled Nanticoke Democrat, has added a humongous 1894 to 68 IE edge to his already massive bucks.  Kanjorski has an overall 3663 to 745 spending edge and still trails.  

Then there are those PA Democrats still on the outside looking in: Sam Bennett, McCracken, and Roggio.  Bennett is circling around Charlie Dent with a 970+574 deficit in expenditures.  It’s winnable but it may take a little help.  Clearly a good call to bring in the outside help here.  The PA-5 race has seen 1950s style spending with McCracken at 40 k and still trailing by only 190-40 K.  I wonder how $500 K would be spent in this district with two weeks to go.  Roggio appears out of the game with Gerlach outspending him by 1483 to 367 K.  If he wins it will be a coat tail ride with the D by his name bringing him home.  Talk about a generic Democratic victory.

Three other races show outside expenditures keeping Kratovil in the race for MD-1 with extremist Club For Growth puppet Harris.  Winnable for sure with the overall 2156 to 1842 Harris edge due to primary spending.  With outgoing Republican WQayne Gilchrest supporting Kratovil, Frank can pull this one off.  In MD-6. the aged Roscoe Bartlett has outspent Jennifer Dougherty by a pathetic 98 K to 89 K margin.  The old boy is saving it for a few more terms?  DE-At Large is another story.  Mike Castle had a 30 point lead in the only poll I’ve seen and a bigger 1381 to 17 K edge in expenditures.  

Ohio was a disappointment in 2006 with lots of close losses and a confortable win by Zach Space to replace scandal ridden Bob Ney in OH-18.  Outside expenditures are playing a big role for the Democrats in three Ohio districts.  In OH-1 Steve Dreihaus is usinga 1104 to 643 bulge over Chabot to hang competitively overall (1879 k to 1888 k for Chabot).  Mary Jo Kilroy is using a bigger 1323 to 319 K edge in IE to drown Steve Stivers by an overall 2849 to 1468 K margin.  In Oh-16 Boccieri’s blankingof Schuring in IE (1780 K to 0) adds to a small edge in campaign spending (1035 to 992) for an overall 2815 to 992 pasting.  Surprisingly little IE money has gone to defeat the queen of mean, Jean Schmidt (163 K to 74 K for Schmidt).  Vic Wulsin has a solid spending edge to date of 1354 to 816.  No IE spending at all for Jane Mitakides, Sharon Neuhardt or Bill O’Neill in other OH races where they trail Republican opponents in the spending wars.

In Michigan, Gary Peters has gotten 950 K in IE expenditures to 0 for Joe Knollenberg putting him in the drivers seat.  Schauer’s 1283 to 789 IE edge over Walberg boosts a narrow edge in campaign expenditures to a comfy margin. In IN, Baron Hill is the big gainer (725 K to 5 for Sodrel) and is safe.  Mike Montagano has a modest 167 K in IE which gives him a 2-1 edge in spending to date over Mark Souder.  Nels Ackerson and Brad Ellsworth haven’t received IE help.  Ellsworth is safe and Ackerson is battling incumbent Steve Buyer on even terms so far.

No IL GOPer has received IE funding but two Democrats have.  Dan Seaks 479 K in IE moves him slightly ahead of Mark Kirk in expenditures to date in a free spending 3049 to 2963 race.  Debbie Halvorsen has used 1028 K in IE to a comfy 2607 to 1269 lead over Marty Ozinga.  Say bye bye Marty.  Melissa Bean needs no help against Greenberg in IL-8 but GI Jill Morgenthaler lkags ex-De Lay aide and current congressman Peter Roskam 1290 to 540 in IL-6.  Aaron Schock has a 1839 to 390 edge over Colleen Callahan but a deficit in common sense and probably IQ.

Two seats look good in MN.  Ashwin Madia is using a 1289 to 39 edge in IE to crush wonder boy Erik Paulsen by an overall 2285 to 1179 in spending.  Bye bye Erik.  El Tinklenberg added 1.7 million to the listed 646 K and Michelle Bachmann (1106 combined will be going home.  Sarvi has gotten no help vs. Kline in MN-2.  Kagen has gotten a small edge vs. Gard in IE and a bigger edge in CTD campaign expenditures.  Overall, looks good.

One of the few races where IE favors the Republican is WV-2 where Capito has used a 681 K to 0 IE lead to build a million dollar edge in CTD expenditures overall.  Time to hit back.  In KY-2, Boswell used 601 K in IE to build an overall 920-337 lead over Guthrie,  No money to Yarmuth who looks good for re-election anyway.  Heather Ryan has been outspent 494 K to 5 K by Exxon Eddie Whitfield.  Heather has gone further on 5 K than anybody would think possible.

Elsewhere in the south, Gerry Connally used a 1153 to 0 IE lead to put his race for VA-11 to bed over Keith Fimmian.  Connally has a narrow edge in campaign expenditures.  JudyFeder and TomPerriello hold narrow spending edges and Glen Nye the VA-2 opponent to Thelma Drake uses a stout 522 to 197 k in IE to hold even in overall spending 91029 to 1274).  Larry Kissell’s 1.301 M in IE gives him a small overall lead to Robin Hayes.  Carter and Johnson remain real long shots vs. Foxx and McHenry.  

Linda Ketner (SC-1) has used her private fortune to outspend Brown 1346 to 467 k with no IEs on either side. Alan rayson has similarly outspent Ric Keller by a 1678 to 572 margin in FL-8.  Incumbent GOPer Vern Buchanan has outspent Christine Jennings by a 3336 to 1963 K margin.  IE totals are not significant.  OTOH, Suzanne Kosmas has used a 697-183 IE lead to build an overall 1899 to 1373 spending lead over Tom Feeney.  Bye bye.  Lincoln Diaz Ballart benefits from a 622-124 edge in IE to lead Raul Martinez 2165 to 662 in expenditures to date.  Brother Mario is locked into an overall 1288 to 1188 edge over Joe Garcia. Ros-Lehtinen leads Taddeo by 2-1 (1655 to 805 yet Annette is climbing in name ID rapidly and scrapping very hard.  The Alabama trio of Bright, Segall and Griffith remain competitive with Jay Love holding an overall 1799 to 1364 expenditure edge; Mike Rogers leading 1139 over the neophyte Segall and Griffith holding off Parker at 1513 to 899.  Griffith and Bright benefit from IE leads.

IEs don’t factor in LA so far.  Don Cazayoux has an early but sizeable lead over the vaunted Cassidy and the non-moonwalking Michael Jackson.  Gorman and Fleming each have more money than Carmouche (LA-4).  Self funder Harlan is competitive with Steve Scalisae in LA-1, at least monetarily.  Ousiders Michael Skelly (1511 to 677) and Larry Doherty are outspending incumbents McCaul and Culberson in TX-7 and TX-10.  In TX-22, Nick Lampson is only competitive with Pete Olson.  Not a ghood sign.  Ciro Rodriguez is home free (2685 to 480).

In the Plains states, the action is limited.  Judy Baker leads the polls despite having been outspent by Leutkemyer 1037-739 so far.  MO-6 is the reverse asa Kay Barnes has outspent Sam Graves 2039 to 1698 but she trails.  Becky Greenwald is within hailing distance of Tom Latham (699 to 430 with no IEs).  The odious Steve King has a 510-152 edge in spending over Rob Hubler in IA-5.  Lynn Jenkins has used 146 K in IE to take an overall 1052 to 953 K lead over Nancy Boyda.  Other foul ups seem more important here.  Esch has a 158 to 0 lead over Terry in IE but Terry has a 2-1edge overall at 968-487.

In the Mountains, Minnick has an overall 1926 to 943 edge but it is Salie who leads in IE at 252-111.  Trauner (796) and Lummis (756) are spending evenly in WY with no IE.  Betsy Markey is using a 1607-429 IE lead to fashion an overall 3024 to 2033 spending edge in CO-4.  Dina Titus has a 870-44 IE lead over incumbent Jon Ensign in NV-3 and a slim 1917 to 1860 overall spending lead.  In NV-2, incumbent GOPer Dean Heller has a 1077 to 585 overall lead over Jill Derby.

IEs play a big role in Arizona.  The race to replace Rick Renzi in AZ-1 is over.  Ann Kirkpatrick used a 1241 to 399 edge in campaign spending and a 1343 to 14 lead in IEs to put Sydney Hay away early and permanently. Similarly, over a million (1090 k) in IEs puts John Shadegg on his heels.  Bob Lord has also matched Sgadegg in campaign expenditures dollar for dollar and a little more ( 1247 to 123 for Shadegg).  Mitchell and Giffords look like easy re-elects.

Three seats are open in New Mexico and Democrats lead the money race for all three seats.  In NM-2 Teague has outsoent Tinsley 2-1 (3222 to 1599) with a 747 to 0 bulge in IEs leading the way.  Lujan leads East 1028-129 in NM-3.  In the closely contested NM-2 Martin Heinrich matched 1644 wiof campaign expenditures with 1643 in IE.  Darren White was beaten 2-1 with campaign spending (1644-829) and 4-1 on IEs (1643-390).

Ethan Berkowitz used a 1102-3 edge in IEs to outspens Don Young 2944-2797.  Of cours Young spent a lot of money on his l;egal defense.  In CA, McNerney used 1042 k in IEs for a 2754 to 450 k edge over Andal.  McClintock has outspent Charlie Brown 2486 to 1483 with a lot of the spending coming in primary season for McClintock. Many other races are close in spending including CA-3 (Durston, 364 vs. Lungren,447), CA-4 CA-26 (Dreier 1813 vs. Russ warner at 1107. Chau (160) vs. Gary Miller (214). Cook 241 vs. Rohrabacher  222.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Americans appear ready to sweep a lot of Democrats into office on November 4. Not only does Barack Obama maintain a solid lead in the popular vote and electoral vote estimates, several Senate races that appeared safe Republican holds a few months ago are now considered tossups.

Polling is harder to come by in House races, but here too there is scattered evidence of a coming Democratic tsunami. Having already lost three special Congressional elections in red districts this year, House Republicans are now scrambling to defend many entrenched incumbents.

In this diary, I hope to convince you of three things:

1. Some Republicans who never saw it coming are going to be out of a job in two weeks.

On a related note,

2. Even the smartest experts cannot always predict which seats offer the best pickup opportunities.

For that reason,

3. Activists should put resources behind many under-funded challengers now, instead of going all in for a handful of Democratic candidates.

Allow me to elaborate.

1. A lot of seemingly safe incumbents have lost in wave elections, even in districts tilted toward their own party.

The Republican landslide of 1994 claimed my own Congressman Neal Smith, a 36-year incumbent who had a senior position on the House Appropriations Committee. Democratic House Speaker Tom Foley spent “what aides say may total $1.5 million to $2 million, a staggering amount for a House race” in 1994, but he still lost to George Nethercutt in Washington’s fifth district.

Many of you probably remember long-serving House and Senate Democrats in your own states who were swept away in the Reagan landslide of 1980.

By the same token, a lot of entrenched Republicans lost their seats during the 1974 post-Watergate wave. That was the year Iowans elected Tom Harkin and Berkley Bedell in the fifth and sixth Congressional districts, where both candidates had lost elections in 1972.

2. Even the political pros and the best analysts cannot always handicap Congressional races accurately, especially House races where public polls are scarce.

In 2006, could anyone have predicted that Lois Murphy (who almost beat Republican Congressman Jim Gerlach two years earlier) would fall short again in PA-06, while the massively under-funded Carol Shea-Porter would defeat Jeb Bradley in NH-01?

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poured millions into IL-06 in 2006, only to see Tammy Duckworth lose to Peter Roskam. Meanwhile, Larry Kissell didn’t get the time of day from the DCCC and came just a few hundred votes short of beating Republican incumbent Robin Hayes in NC-08.

My point is that we can’t always know where our best chances lie. Sometimes a stealth candidate can catch an incumbent napping in a race that hasn’t been targeted by either party.

Look at the seats Republicans are now worried about, according to Politico:

GOP Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise.

Markos commented on the Politico piece,

Shadegg’s AZ-03 is R+5.9.

Terry’s NE-02 is R+9.0.

Brown’s SC-01 is R+9.6

Lungren’s CA-03 is R+6.7.

We haven’t had any public polls in Iowa’s fourth or fifth district races, but last week Republican incumbent Tom Latham (IA-04, D+0) released his first negative television ad, suggesting that his internal polls may show Becky Greenwald gaining on him.

I can’t tell you today who will win on November 4, but I guarantee you that some Democrats in “tossup” seats will lose, even as other Democrats take over “likely Republican” or “safe Republican” districts. Which brings me to my third point.

3. We need to expand the field of Republican-held districts we’re playing for.

Thankfully, the bad old days when the DCCC would target 22 races, hoping to win 15, are just a memory. The DCCC has put more than 60 Republican-held seats in the “Red to Blue” category. Not all of those seats have seen media buys or other significant financial investment from the DCCC, however.

Plus, as I mentioned above, Dan Lungren is sweating bullets in CA-03, which isn’t even on the Red to Blue list.

In 2006 we won at least two seats that were not in the Red to Blue program (IA-02 and NH-01) and came oh, so close in NC-08.

The bottom line is that a lot of Democratic challengers with the potential to win are not getting the support of the DCCC. This post at Swing State Project lists lots of seats once thought safe for Republicans, which are becoming competitive.

Where can netroots fundraising have the most impact? In my view, it’s in the winnable districts where there will be no influx of hundreds of thousands of dollars from the DCCC or other outside groups. Many of these are districts where an additional $50,000 or even $25,000 can make the difference.

The mother of all moneybombs dumped three-quarters of a million dollars into Elwyn Tinklenberg’s campaign in 24 hours over the weekend. It was a strong statement against the intolerance and bigotry Michelle Bachmann (MN-06) displayed on Hardball.

While I respect the enthusiasm, I can’t agree with those who are still asking the netroots to give to Tinklenberg, even after he’s collected more than $750,000 and the DCCC has promised to put $1 million into this race. Tinklenberg now has the resources to run an aggressive paid media and GOTV effort for the next two weeks. He probably has more money than he can spend effectively with so little time left.

Raising $50,000 for each of ten good challengers would be a better use of our energy than continuing to push activists to give to Tinklenberg.

Remember, few challengers are able to match incumbents dollar-for-dollar, but that doesn’t mean they can’t win. They don’t need to match incumbent spending, but they do need the resources to improve their name recognition and capitalize on the Democratic wave.

Which House races should we target for a moneybomb? I would suggest looking at the list of candidates on the Blue America ’08 page at Act Blue, as well as the candidates endorsed by Russ Feingold’s Progressive Patriots Fund. We have good reason to believe that those candidates will stand up for progressive values.

I would then pick a few Democrats on those lists who are not benefiting from large independent expenditures by the DCCC or others.

Our money will go further in districts with relatively inexpensive paid media.

I would also favor candidates taking on particularly odious incumbents, such as Dennis Shulman (running against Scott Garrett in NJ-05) and Debbie Cook (facing Dana Rohrbacher in CA-46). RDemocrat has written a book’s worth of material on why we should support Heather Ryan against “Exxon Ed” Whitfield in KY-01.

And what kind of Iowan would I be if I didn’t mention Rob Hubler, who is taking on Steve King in IA-05? My fellow Iowa blogger 2laneIA published this comprehensive diary showing that if we’re talking about the most ignorant and bigoted wingnuts in Congress, King gives Michelle Bachmann a run for her money. Click the link to read all about King’s “greatest hits,” including his suggestion that we electrify the border fence with Mexico like we do “with livestock,” his prediction that terrorists will be “dancing in the streets” if Obama becomes president, and his pride in working to scale back funding for the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (which he calls Socialist Clinton-style Hillarycare for Illegals and their Parents). King considers his work to reduce SCHIP funding a “key moment” in his Congressional career.

Amazingly, there’s even more to dislike about King than 2laneIA had room to mention in that piece. For instance, while still a state senator, King was a leading advocate for Iowa’s “official English” law, which was adopted in 2002. Then he filed a lawsuit in 2007 to stop the Iowa Secretary of State’s office from providing voter information in languages besides English. It’s not for nothing that Ann Coulter calls King “one of my favorites.”

Hubler is a good progressive who spoke out against the FISA bill and supports the Responsible Plan for Iraq. I just found out yesterday that during the 1980s he was INFACT’s national director of the boycott against Nestle. Hubler also happens to be running a great campaign, but he is not getting much outside help except from Feingold’s Progressive Patriots Fund, which has sent an organizer to work on the campaign.

Two dozen House Democrats already represent districts with a partisan voting index of R+5 or worse. We should be able to increase that number in two weeks and send home Republicans who didn’t even realize they were in trouble.

Few people have enough money to donate to every worthy Democratic candidate. But if the netroots could raise more than three-quarters of a million dollars for Elwyn Tinklenberg in just over 48 hours, we ought to be able to raise $50,000 each for ten good challengers, whose races are relatively low-profile.

Who’s with me on this, and which districts should we target?

Earlier this week I received an email from a 5th district voter with very strong pro-life beliefs who would like to vote for me.  She told me via email that she is comfortable that I am Catholic and my stance on pro-life issues is similar to that of Sen. Robert Casey.   She feels it is very likely Barack Obama will be elected President and the Democratic Party will gain seats Congress.   Where her concern lies is what actions a newly inaugurated President Barack Obama and a United States Congress with a strong Democratic majority will take after January of 2009.   She is afraid there will be a far left agenda that will attempt to overturn pro-life initiatives put into effect like the ban on partial birth abortions.

In my response back to her, I explained that my agenda when I arrive in Washington will be exactly what I’ve been campaigning on.  I want to concentrate on fiscal responsibility, a national energy policy that stresses domestically produced alternative fuels, health care and health insurance reform, saving and strengthening Social Security, rescinding No Child Left Behind and bringing our troops home from Iraq.   I also mentioned that I will not stand for Congress losing sight of what the agenda must be — solving the problems important to the middle class.

There are so many important issues the American people want resolved and, if they give the Democratic Party a mandate with the election of Barack Obama as President and a larger majority in the United States Congress, we must strictly honor the wishes of the people.  From Barack Obama on down, we need to realize going in the American people want results and they want the mess left by George W. Bush cleaned up.  What they not accept is veering off on a far left agenda that brings issues to the table that have nothing to do with the economy and the problems of the middle class.

For the first time since the so called “Reagan Revolution” in 1980, the country is ready to put their full trust in the Democratic Party.  The Democratic Party the voters want to see is one that will concentrate on the problems of the middle class and will reflect the leadership values of Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy.  To make this happen and to honor the trust the American people will give to the Democratic Party on November 4th, the far left elements must stand down and allow Barack Obama and a moderate Democratic Congress to lead this country.  This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to turn our country around and there is no margin for error.

Gen. Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama:

Today’s endorsement by Colin Powell of Barack Obama is news that will likely solidify what the outcome will be on November 4th.  To have someone of Gen. Powell’s stature come out and endorse Sen. Obama should speak volumes to any of the undecided voters still out there.  It should also encourage those to of us who long ago decided that Barack Obama is the leader we need that we made the right choice.

Review of the Past Week on the Campaign Trail:

This week I participated in 3 candidate forum / debates with my opponents.   I feel very confident in my performance against my 2 opponents and I am able to show the voters that we are on their side on the important issues like fiscal responsibility, health care reform, saving Social Security, energy policy and the concern for the problems of the middle class.  

On Friday evening, Henry Guthrie and I traveled to Forest County to meet with members of the Democratic Party there.   Thanks to Sheriff Bob Wolfgang for arranging the meeting.   There was a large contingent of Forest County Democrats at the meeting and they are ready to do everything they can to help our campaign and see a big Democratic victory on November 4th.

On Saturday evening, Kelly and I traveled to Ridgway for the Elk County Democratic Committee fall dinner.  It was a wonderful event and we got to hear a round of great speeches from Nye Simmons representing the Obama campaign, Don Hilliard running for the State Senate and Rep. Dan Surra running for re-election to the state house.  The folks in Elk County are out working hard for the Democratic ticket and I reminded them that Elk County with a solid Democratic registration majority will play a large role in the outcome of the 5th district race.

Schedule for Upcoming Week:

Monday — 11:30 AM — Williamsport Rotary

Monday — 5:00 PM — McCracken for Congress Pre-Debate Reception – St. James Church Parish Hall — 30 Wellsboro Street — Mansfield PA.  

Monday — 7:00 PM — Tioga County Debate — Mansfield Univ. Straughn Auditorium

Tuesday — 3 – 3:45 PM — Arnold Addison Court in St. College — with Art Goldschmidt

Tuesday — 4 – 5 PM Foxdale Retirement Community in St. College — with Art Goldschmidt

Tuesday — 7 PM — Bellefonte Media Outlet Debate

Wednesday — 6:30 PM — Mifflin County Farm Bureau Debate — Indian Valley HS – Lewistown

Thursday — 7 PM — WPSU TV Debate — State College

Friday — WJAC Debate in Centre County — Details TBA

Saturday — 1 PM — Cameron County Democratic Lunch – Emporium

Saturday — 5 PM — Centre County Fall Democratic Banquet — State College

Sunday — 12 Noon — House Party at Marie Sweets in State College

FUNDRAISING REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project. We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks. The only way to turn this country around is to send people to Washington who will make the tough decisions. The choice in the 5th district is clear. My opponent regularly states that he supports the fiscal policies of the Bush administration AKA “the Bush tax cuts” and will continue them — More of the Same. While I continue to stress that we must balance the budget, built a surplus and pay down the debt.

In order to get the message out to voters we will need to advertise which costs money. Please contact your family and friends and urge them to financially support our campaign as we move into the final weeks. Donations can be made online through www.actblue.com or by direct mail to McCracken for Congress, PO Box 332, Clearfield PA 16830.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Well, Heather Ryan has her first T.V. ad completed. It is a humourous take on Exxon Ed Whitfield’s record of serving Big Oil and the Bush Administration which I have named “The Zephyr Hillbilly”. It is our 30 sec. spot, and we have a couple of more in the offing.

Without further adeu, here is “The Zephyr Hillbilly”:

Now, the jingle you here on this ad doubles as our radio spot. We already have some money to run this ad, but we need help to run it as much as possible, and run the two other ads we have nearly completed.

Progressive Democrats, we need your help!! Can you give $100, $50, $25, $10, or even $5 to help us run our ads as much as possible? No donation is too small for our grassroots campaign!!

Exxon Ed Whitfield is tied to our failing economic policies and has voted over 90% of the time with the failed Bush Administration. If we get a chance to introduce his record and our candidate, we win!!

Please, help “Fighting Kentucky Democrats” pull a huge upset here:

Following the death of long time U.S. Representative Stephanie Tubbs-Jones, Democrat Marcia L. Fudge, (mayor of Warrensville Heights) won a special election primary on Tuesday. Fudge had previously served as Tubbs-Jones chief of staff. She defeated a field of eight other candidates (not counted four who dropped out.)  This means that she will serve out the remaining few weeks of Tubbs-Jones term in the House, thereby giving her seniority over anyone else elected to the House next month.

Located in the Cleveland area, OH-11 has the greatest concentration of urban minority voters of any present Ohio U.S. House seat.

In recent years, the GOP has completely controlled state government in Ohio, including having veto proof majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly.  This has allowed them to gerrymander both the Ohio U.S. House Districts and the seats in the state legislature.  In some cases (Cincinnati and Dayton, for example) the GOP was able to carefully split up urban areas and mix them in with upscale suburban and rural populations in order to produce U.S. House Districts that are securely but not overwhelmingly Republican.

As a result, eight of our Districts usually vote somewhere between 55 to 65% Republican, assuming a sitting, breathing and un-indicted incumbent. In 2006, the highest vote percentage for a Republican congresscritter was in OH-08 where tanning aficionado John Boehner  took 63.80% of the vote. On the other hand, we have three House Districts where the GOP has tried to “quarantine” as many Democratic voters as possible. This means that effectively, whoever gets the Democratic nomination is essentially unbeatable.

In 2006, in OH-09 Kaptur took 73.63%, in OH-17, Ryan got in 80.25%, and despite a serious primary challenge in OH-10, Kucinich got 66.41%. But the big winner was in OH-11 where Tubbs-Jones who took a whopping 83.44% of the vote.

But following the 2010 census, reapportionment is going to hit Ohio HARD. We are on track to lose two U.S. House sets out of our present eighteen.

If that process were held today, Democrats would have a one vote majority on the board that draws the districts for the state General Assembly .  GOP legislative leaders have bragged that under the present layout,  if Ohio votes an even 50-50 split, the GOP would control over 60% of the seats.  However, with a swing of just four seats this year, Democrats could gain control of the Ohio House which would vastly improve the functional balance of power in this state. At this point, the Ohio senate is hopeless both because of gerrymandering and an incompetent state campaign organization.

This is critical and has national implications, because the General Assembly draws the U.S. House districts, and the governor only has veto power over the plan.

IF, somehow, the Democrats are able to control the U.S. reapportionment process, I don’t see how we can afford to have three completely  whopperjawed Districts. This is particularly true given that two seats will have to be eliminated.

Which brings us back to the special election primary in OH-11, where just over 10,000 voters elected Ms. Fudge, out of 175,973 voters in the 2006 general election. Will her “seniority” result in special consideration during reapportionment? Will this House seat retain it’s present population make-up?

Local politics — national implications.

UPDATE: The DCCC  added IA-04 to the Red to Blue list on October 14 and moved IA-05 up from Races to Watch to Emerging Races.

There have been no public polls in the race between Republican incumbent Tom Latham and Becky Greenwald in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, and neither candidate has released any results from internal polling.

However, Latham may be increasingly concerned about holding this D+0 district amid what looks like a landslide victory for Barack Obama in Iowa.

Until this week, Latham’s campaign messaging touted his record and mostly ignored his challenger. But on Monday he went negative, issuing this statement blasting Greenwald’s support for the recent bailout package. (She came out against the first bailout bill the House considered but supported the version that cleared the Senate before coming up for a House vote.)

Latham voted against both bailout bills, one of very few times he’s ever refused to support something the Bush administration wanted. For months, Greenwald has been hitting him on his lockstep Republican voting record. He is clearly grateful to have this issue to separate him from the White House and Republican leadership in Congress.

Last week Latham and Greenwald held two radio debates, and Latham brought up his no votes on the bailout at every opportunity. I commented at Bleeding Heartland that the bailout was the only thing that kept the second debate from being a rout for Greenwald.

During and after the debates, Greenwald brought up Latham’s consistent Republican voting record on lots of issues, including the deregulation of the banking sector which has contributed to the current economic problems. She also linked Latham to John McCain’s failed approach on health care reform and hammered him for supporting a privatization scheme for Social Security.

Latham denies he has backed privatizing Social Security, but to paraphrase Josh Marshall, he uses classic Republican “bamboozlement” language on this issue. He has supported private investment accounts, which could be devastating to seniors’ income in a bear market.

Greenwald has challenged Latham to televised debates as well. He declined one invitation and is dragging his feet on rescheduling an Iowa Public Television debate that was postponed while Congress was considering the bailout.

The third quarter financial reports for Latham and Greenwald are not available at Open Secrets yet. As of June 30, Latham had a big cash on hand advantage, in part because he sits on the House Appropriations Committee and in part because Greenwald had to get through a four-way Democratic primary (she won with more than 50 percent of the vote).

Greenwald’s summer fundraising must have been reasonably strong, because she went up on tv in September, got the endorsement of EMILY’s List, and was put on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Emerging Races” list.

No doubt Latham still has a money edge, because he has been advertising more extensively on tv and radio throughout the district. His first two television commercials focused on a bill he co-authored to address the nursing shortage and the need to “crack down on Wall Street greed” and help Main Street businesses.

Most House race rankings still put IA-04 in the “likely Republican” category, but this is a district to watch, especially in light of the big Democratic gains in voter registration and Obama’s double-digit statewide lead over McCain, confirmed by at least ten polls.

If Latham does hold on to his seat, I think he should send Nancy Pelosi a thank-you note. Here’s Latham’s voting record on corporate subsidies. Here’s Latham’s voting record that relates to government checks on corporate power. Here’s Latham’s voting record on corporate tax breaks in general (including sub-categories on tax breaks for the oil and gas industry and for the wealthiest individuals).

Yet despite his long record of standing with corporations rather than middle-class taxpayers, the bailout has allowed Latham to position himself this way going into the home stretch of the campaign:

“Reckless Wall Street CEO’s made a mess and they asked Iowans to pay to clean it up,” noted Latham for Congress spokesperson Matt Hinch. “Tom Latham stood up in Congress and protected Iowans by twice voting no on this massive Wall Street bailout. Tom Latham believes that, as a matter of principle, it is wrong to spend hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to reward, benefit and bailout those on Wall Street who created this mess.”

Highlights of Becky Greenwald’s endorsed Wall Street bailout plan includes:

* The largest corporate welfare proposal in U.S. history all at taxpayer expense;

* Gives the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, and Wall Street veteran and former Goldman Sachs CEO, Henry Paulson a no-strings checkbook with $700 billion in taxpayer funds to spend as he sees fit;

* The Washington Post reports that there is a strong possibility of conflicts of interest, since the same companies who created the mess on Wall Street will, “be managing the assets while also selling their own troubled securities to the government.”;

* Taxpayer funded pork in the bill included tax breaks for rum, sports entities, television and the manufacturer of wooden arrows for children;

* And, no guarantee by Secretary Paulson that his plan will actually work.

“Becky Greenwald would reward the same greedy CEO’s who caused this crisis,” continued Hinch. “Becky Greenwald would spend $700 billion of Iowans’ money to fix Wall Street mistakes and greed. No accountability and no guarantee it will even work. It’s clear that Iowans can’t trust Becky Greenwald with our tax dollars.”

I don’t know whether this tactic will work for Latham, but I do know that if he were very confident, he would be sticking to a positive message.

If I remember right, it’s been a few of months since we had a House Cattle call, although we have Senate ones monthly.  A lot has happened in those few months. I think our chances in several strongly Republican Districts have greatly improved, and we’ve put away some districts that were competitive a few months ago.  Most of the Pundits are predicting gains greater than 20 seats, with 30 or more seats likely.  McCain is losing ground by the day, and Republicans nation wide are hemorrhaging support thanks to the Economic crisis.  Democratic incumbents are in increasingly less danger, with only approximately 5 seats in serious risk. Needless to say, this one is looking like a wave election possibly better than 2006.  Go as far down as you want, as we have no shortage of targets.