Tag: House

Another Busy Week – Less Than 1 Day To Go!!!

I started out the week on Monday with a trip to State College to meet with the PSU College Democrats. I took the time to give special thanks to the PSU Dems for their hard work getting students registered to vote in this election. It really is encouraging to see how interested young voters throughout the district are about this election. I think our young people realize that they have to get involved and make a difference in this election.

Later in the week on Thursday, I had an afternoon radio interview on WPHB followed in the evening with a trip to Clarion for the Clarion University Young Dems Spring Unity Banquet. The Clarion Young Dems have a very involved and active group. They have had representation at every 5th District candidate event held in Clarion throughout the campaign. It was great to get a final chance to meet with them before Election Day. We also had people in attendance throughout the day at the stops by President Clinton in Brookville, St. Marys and Clearfield.  The crowd in Clearfield to see Pres. Clinton wrapped around the front of the Clearfield Middle School and wrapped around onto Mill Rd.  Everyone was in high spirits and thankfully the weather cooperated.  Our campaign stopped and talked about the issues important to citizens of the 5th District and we feel that our message was warmly received by the gathered crowd.

Friday, I traveled to DuBois to participate in Eyes Wide Open, a traveling exhibit to help educate the public on the real costs of the Iraq war. The exhibit contained several banners that describe the monetary costs of the war and compares what we could do here in the United States with the funds. The most moving part of the exhibit was the 183 pairs of military boots with the names attached of the fallen PA soldiers and civilians who have died in Iraq during the conflict. It was a very moving exhibit and should make our resolve even stronger to end the conflict and bring the troops home as soon as possible.

On Saturday, we attended the annual Blue White Game at Penn State. It was a warm sunny day and it was a lot of fun working the tailgate parties in the parking lot. However, I found 2 things: 1 – The majority of Penn State fans travel in from outside of the 5th district, and 2 – A good number start drinking the hard stuff early in the morning and have no interest in politics once the alcohol takes effect. I do want to thank State Rep. Scott Conklin, the PSU College Dems and the Obama State College Campaign Staff for hosting a great tailgate event.  One note from the blogger:  You can see more about the Blue White Game in the CDT article written by Mike Joseph.  It can be found here:although I’m not sure if I would make a good caddy.

The week ended today with a trip back over to Happy Valley to work the line waiting to attend Sen. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Penn State. It was an excited group waiting to see Sen. Clinton and their spirits were high in spite of a cold downpour that started around 5:30. I really enjoy the one on one campaigning that we were able to do both Saturday and Sunday.

I’ll close this last report before Election Day with a round of thanks to everyone who has helped with the campaign thus far. We started back in mid-January and what has been accomplished so far is because of everyone who has been involved. I also want to thank and wish the best of luck to all the Democratic candidates who are on the ballot on Tuesday. It’s been a privilege to campaign and attend events with these people.

Finally, I want to give a special thank you to my 2 fellow Democratic candidates in the 5th District race. I truly admire the way Rick, Bill and I have focused on the issues of this campaign, met with the voters and kept our campaigns positive. I’ve told several people over the last week, our party and our eventual nominee in the 5th district will be stronger because of the positive campaigns all 3 of us ran. Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, we are tested and ready to take on the Republican candidate in November. I have a stronger opinion today than I did in January when I started the campaign – a Democrat WILL be elected in the 5th Congressional District in 2008.

One final note: Please tell as many people as you can – Support Mark B. McCracken for Congress – #1 on the Democratic Ballot.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-06 – R+?,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

VA-01 – R+9,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

So 413 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 179 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 179

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 5

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None at this stage

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

GA-03 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Georgia, New York and Wisconsin. Thats 39 states with a full slate, and 3 states with one race to fill!  

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the last 3 Louisiana, Michigan and Oklahoma fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

Below is a handy table of all the verifiable House polls I could find for the current election cycle. Special election polls are only included for upcoming elections, not for those that are already over. Every poll contains a link and an exact date range. Polling for candidates who have dropped out or decided against running is not included.

Cross posted from Election Inspection.

District	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	43	Harri Anne Smith	38
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	46	Jay Love	27
AL-05	Bud Cramer (D)	Capital Survey Research Center 4/1	Parker Griffith	48	Wayne Parker	32
AK-AL	Don Young (R)	Research 2000 12/3-12/6	Ethan Berkowitz	49	Don Young	42
AZ-08	Gabby Giffords (D)	Summit Group (R) 12/3-12/4	Gabby Giffords	36	Tim Bee	30
FL-13	Vern Buchanan (R)	Public Opinion Strategies 3/5-3/6	Christine Jennings	37	Vern Buchanan	53
FL-24	Tom Feeney (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 7/9-7/11	Suzanne Kosmas	23	Tom Feeney	42
IL-10	Mark Kirk (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 2/7-2/8	Dan Seals	39	Mark Kirk	46
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/8-4/10	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	42
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 3/16-3/20	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	44
MD-01	Wayne Gilchrest (R)	Moore Information 1/15-1/16	Frank Kratovil	22	Andy Harris	37
MI-07	Tim Walberg (R)	EPIC-MRA 2/27-3/2	Mark Schauer	40	Tim Walberg	51
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10/31-11/02	Gary Peters	35	Joe Knollenberg	42
MS-01	Roger Wicker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/3-4/7	Travis Childers	41	Greg Davis	40
NM-01	Heather Wilson (R)	Public Opinion Strategies (R) 10/8-10/9	Martin Heinrich	33	Darren White	51
NY-25	Jim Walsh (R)	Global Strategy Group (D) 2/16-2/20	Dan Maffei	41	Peter Cappuccilli	29
NC-08	Robin Hayes (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 11/13-11/15	Larry Kissell	49	Robin Hayes	47
OH-02	Jean Schmidt (R)	Tarrance Group (R) 3/11-3/12	Vic Wulsin	33	Jean Schmidt	51
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	53	Dan Meuser	23
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	55	Chris Hackett	21
TX-07	John Culberson (R)	IVR 4/8	Michael Skelly	39	John Culberson	57
WY-AL	Barbara Cubin (R)	Mason-Dixon 1/18-1/21	Gary Trauner	41	Cynthia Lummis	40

Based on the polling above, Democrats are likely to pick up at least 5-10 seats, and that’s with many competitive races yet unpolled and many campaigns just starting to rev up. Although there are a few seats held by Democrats that are in danger, none yet polled show us losing to the GOP.

Keep an eye on EI for House and Senate polls updated daily.

6 Counties in 1 Week:

Monday — Tioga County:   I started out the week with a day long visit to Tioga County with the day’s agenda coordinated by Emily Rizzo.  Emily took me around to several communities in Tioga County including Wellsboro, which included a visit to the Tioga County Courthouse to meet the elected officials, and to Mansfield where we stopped to meet with the staff at the Obama headquarters.  I found Tioga County to be one of the most scenic counties, not only in the 5th district, but in the entire state.

The day ended with a candidate forum that was attended by 10 of the 12 candidates (the 2 missing candidates had people stand in for them) for the 5th district seat.  For the first time at one of these multi-candidate events, I drew the 12th position so I had to sit and wait as every other candidate did their 10 minute presentations.   Here is what the Elmira Star Gazette wrote about my presentation:

“After sitting silent for two hours, Democrat Mark McCracken, a Clearfield County commissioner, finally got his turn to speak.   He said the nation’s $9.4 trillion debt was tragic and that his priority would be getting the federal budget back in order.   “We’re in a deeper hole than we have ever been in before,” he said.    “This is a threat to our national security.   Foreign interests could pull the rug out from under us at any time.”

“Congress also needs to address energy costs and supplies…We missed a wake-up call in the ’70s,” he said. “We really need to get an energy plan in place. We need to be looking at alternate energy sources.    This is our second wake-up call. We’d better take it.”

Tuesday — Clarion County:   Tuesday evening, Kelly and I made the trip to Clarion County for the Spring Democratic Banquet.  Like Democrats all over the region, the folks in Clarion are excited about our party’s prospects for 2008.

Wednesday — Elk and Mifflin Counties:  Wednesday morning brought a trip to St.Marys for a candidate forum in front of members of the Allegheny Hardwoods Utilization Group AHUG.  The members of AHUG quizzed 11 of the 12 candidates on where we stood in regards to the lumber and timber business that is so important to the economy in north central Pennsylvania.

Wednesday evening brought a trip to Lewistown to appear at a candidate forum sponsored by the Mifflin County Farm Bureau.  It was decided that the 3 Democratic candidates would have our own portion of the forum since the Republican candidates would be arriving later due to party event also being held in Lewistown.

Thursday — Clearfield County:   The DuBois Democratic Committee sponsored a forum for the 3 Democratic candidates at the Penn State DuBois Campus.  PCN was on hand to record the forum which they will run several times over the next few days.  

I have to congratulate the people who put the event together.  It was a unique format which included the standard Q & A, followed by a 1 on 1 session with a moderator, then questions from the audience and ended with 5 minute closing statements from each candidate.  The format was different from any event we’ve participated in thus far and was a good challenge for me personally and I think for the other 2 candidates as well.

Friday — Centre County:  Friday evening Kelly and I traveled to the Tussey Mountain Lodge to attend the Centre County Democrats Spring Banquet.  This event turned into a celebration of the extraordinary gains in voter registration the Democratic party has made in central Pennsylvania.  Centre County led the way with the excitement for Sen. Obama’s candidacy leading to a huge wave of young people registering Democratic.  But, the excitement doesn’t end in Centre County as my home county of Clearfield and Rick Vilello’s home county of Clinton also turned “BLUE”!   Hmmm, with everything going the Democratic way, maybe a Democrat can win the 5th district after all.

Saturday — Clearfield County: I spent the day working on behalf of the Obama campaign doing some door to door canvassing at the invitation of Jody Grumblatt.  Jody has been putting her heart and soul into campaigning on behalf of Sen. Obama.  She was even out on the Clearfield Courthouse Plaza on a cold day a few weeks back registering voters.

Sunday — Clearfield County:  Kelly, Amanda and I went to the DuBois Democratic Committee spaghetti dinner.  Many campaigns were on hand for this well attended annual event.  

Auditor General Jack Wagner was the main speaker with Jay Paterno on hand to speak for the Obama campaign.    Rick Vilello and I each spoke to the crowd to make our case for votes on April 22nd.

Maybe the Wrong McCracken in on the Ballot:  Kelly had a very lucky week.    She won 4 tickets to a Pirate baseball game at the Clarion County Dinner and really cleaned up at the spaghetti dinner in DuBois winning 2 gift baskets.  

Amanda was really excited with the one gift basket that had a porcelain doll that she really liked.

We’re heading into the last full week of the primary campaign and there are a lot of miles left to travel.    Please be sure to remind your family and friends to vote on April 22nd.  Of course, a mention to vote for the 5th district candidate listed in the #1 position on the ballot would be appreciated.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Today, it was my plan to start focusing less on presidential diaries and more on Congressional races. But, thanks to John McCain, I have the opportunity to write a diary that focuses on a little of both. As we all know, the corrupt Rick Renzi is retiring to face a grand jusry, but it gets even better. McCain is doing his best to help Democrats win this seat According to the progressive blog Down With Tyranny! McCain has decided to endorse a candidate who used his ifluence to get his rapist son out of jail.

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Complicating the matter further, is that McCain, in a pique of typically hysterical vindictive pigheadedness, forced the local AZ-01 Republican Party to jettison their favorite candidate to try to hold Renzi’s seat, Kris Mayes (who McCain holds a grudge against because she once worked for the Arizona Republic), in favor of a McCain crony, Ken Bennett. The problem with Bennett isn’t that he’s a McCain crony but that he is widely hated in AZ-01 for using his influence to free his son from punishment after the younger Bennett was convicted of using broomsticks and flashlights in 40 incidents of rape against 18 young boys, many repeatedly.

In case there is any doubt about Clifton Bennet’s guilt.

The son of state Senate President Ken Bennett admitted in court Monday to assaulting middle school boys with a broomstick in their rectal areas, but a judge allowed charges against him to be reduced from 18 to one, and he may avoid jail.

Three of the 18 victims, all boys between the ages of 11 and 15, are from Tucson, and the families are angry that 18-year-old Clifton Bennett and co-defendant Kyle Wheeler, 19, were not charged with sexual assault.

So Mr. Straight Talk does not really care about crime, or victims’ rights. He doesn’t even care about his own party. America needs to know the truth about McCain. But in the meantime, we owe him out thanks for the assist in turning this seat blue.  

DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen briefed reporters in Washington today about the state of 2008’s downballot races.  Their commentary was nothing especially groundbreaking for anyone who reads the Swing State Project, but Schumer did reveal a “target ranking” that should be of interest.  MSNBC’s First Read has the scoop:

Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the DSCC is challenging in 17 of 23 GOP-held seats, including eight he believes Democrats have a solid chance in and nine others where he thinks they can be competitive. […]

Here’s the picture for the DSCC provided by Schumer:

Top targets: VA, NH, NM, CO, AK. (Schumer says they are ahead here.)

Second tier: OR, MN, ME. (These are blue states; Democrats are not ahead, but are competitive.)

Red-state seats in striking range: KY, NC, MS.

Good candidates with an outside chance: NE, KS, OK, GA, ID, TX. (Schumer says of Texas that he likes Noriega as a candidate and that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is polling surprisingly low.)

Potentially, that’s a very wide net to play with.  Only the two Wyoming seats, Thad Cochran, Jeff Sessions, Lindsey Graham and Lamar Alexander are definitely off the table in the DSCC’s eyes.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

I thought I’d continue with the PVI vs. Vote Index project begun here and continued here and here. It seems like almost every permutation involving the different ratings methods (Progressive Punch, Progressive Punch Chips Are Down, ADA, and National Journal Composite) has been tried out now, so I wanted to try a new approach: focusing on particular important votes, presenting a matrix that shows who broke with the party on what, and throwing PVI into the mix. (If you’re like me, you constantly forget why you’re supposed to be angry at a particular representative, so it’s handy to have everyone’s black marks on one handy chart.)

I chose six votes to start with, three where Democratic discipline really seemed to break down (Iraq supplemental, FISA, and ENDA), and three where Republican discipline broke down (minimum wage, stem cells, and SCHIP veto override). “Iraq supplemental” and “FISA” are particularly difficult categories, because there have been many votes on each, and a lot of Dems have gone for more nuanced positions than can be encapsulated with one vote. For these categories, I chose the vote on each topic where Democratic discipline seemed to break down the most, and correspondingly, where the blogosphere engaged in the loudest and angriest freakout: HR 2206 Roll Call 425 on Iraq and S 1927 Roll Call 836 on FISA. (The final votes on these topics had much higher party unity.)

For each party, I have a table of how many times a representative voted against the party. Within each table, representatives are listed in order of PVI from highest to lowest. This doesn’t create as neat and tidy a relationship as we’ve been doing with the more thorough scoring approaches… but it shouldn’t take too much imagination to look at each table and form a qualitative judgment as to who’s fitting the district and who isn’t.

I’m also including representatives with no votes against the party but who are in districts in what we’ll call the danger zone (D+5 to R+5). These ones, maintaining discipline in the face of potentially hostile districts, are the ones we might think of as analogous to the ‘overperformers’ from previous diaries on this topic. (No one on the wrong side of the danger zone, i.e. Democrats in districts of R+6 or greater… has complete party unity.)

By way of analysis, note that the same underperforming cast of characters stands out here as in the more rigorously quantitative approaches to the PVI vs. Vote question: Lipinski, Marshall, Barrow, Artur Davis, Cooper, Costa. Likewise, the Republican overperformers (the ones theoretically vulnerable because of their wingnuttiness) also look about the same: Chabot, Walberg, Rogers (MI), Feeney, Roskam, Kline.

The good news is (and this was noted in previous diaries in this series): being in the majority is a real tonic for party discipline. Note how many more Republicans than Democrats broke with the party 3, 4, or 5 times. (Many of them are also in affluent suburban D+ districts and are feeling the heat… except for Todd Platts, who seems to have come out of nowhere with a new Club for Growth-related deathwish.) For the Democrats who broke the party line multiple times, they’re almost always members of the Blue Dogs and coming from rural southern or Midwestern districts (again, with the glaring exception of Lipinski).

Democrats

5 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Marshall	GA-08	R+8	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells, SCHIP

4 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Lipinski	IL-03	D+10	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
L. Davis	TN-04	R+3	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
McIntyre	NC-07	R+3	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
Shuler	NC-11	R+7	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells
G. Taylor	MS-04	R+16	Iraq, FISA, ENDA, Stem cells

3 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Barrow	GA-12	D+2	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Wilson	OH-06	D+0	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Tanner	TN-08	D+0	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Rahall	WV-03	D+0	Iraq, ENDA, Stem cells
Donnelly	IN-02	R+4	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Gordon	TN-06	R+4	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Melancon	LA-03	R+5	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
Cramer	AL-05	R+6	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Peterson	MN-07	R+6	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Ellsworth	IN-08	R+9	Iraq, FISA, Stem cells
Lampson	TX-22	R+15	Iraq, FISA, ENDA
C. Edwards	TX-17	R+18	Iraq, FISA, ENDA

2 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
A. Davis	AL-07	D+17	FISA, ENDA
Cooper	TN-05	D+6	Iraq, FISA
Costa	CA-20	D+5	Iraq, FISA
Berry	AR-01	D+1	Iraq, ENDA
Boswell	IA-03	D+1	Iraq, FISA
Snyder	AR-02	D+0	Iraq, ENDA
Ross	AR-04	D+0	Iraq, ENDA
Walz	MN-01	R+1	Iraq, FISA
Cuellar	TX-28	R+1	Iraq, FISA
Boyd	FL-02	R+2	Iraq, FISA
Stupak	MI-01	R+2	Iraq, Stem cells
Etheridge	NC-02	R+3	Iraq, FISA
Altmire	PA-04	R+3	Iraq, FISA
Mitchell	AZ-05	R+4	Iraq, FISA
Rodriguez	TX-23	R+4	Iraq, FISA
Bean	IL-08	R+5	Iraq, FISA
Boren	OK-02	R+5	Iraq, FISA
Salazar	CO-03	R+6	Iraq, FISA
Space	OH-18	R+6	Iraq, FISA
Mollohan	WV-01	R+6	Iraq, Stem cells
Hill	IN-09	R+7	Iraq, FISA
Chandler	KY-06	R+7	Iraq, FISA
Carney	PA-10	R+8	Iraq, FISA
Skelton	MO-04	R+11	Iraq, ENDA
Herseth	SD-AL	R+11	Iraq, FISA
Pomeroy	ND-AL	R+13	Iraq, FISA
Matheson	UT-02	R+17	Iraq, FISA

1 vote

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Towns	NY-10	D+41	ENDA
Clarke	NY-11	D+40	ENDA
Velazquez	NY-12	D+34	ENDA
Nadler	NY-08	D+28	ENDA
Wasserman Schultz	FL-20	D+18	Iraq
Emanuel	IL-05	D+18	Iraq
Andrews	NJ-01	D+14	Iraq
Weiner	NY-09	D+14	ENDA
Baca	CA-43	D+13	Iraq
Levin	MI-12	D+13	Iraq
Dingell	MI-15	D+13	Iraq
S. Davis	CA-53	D+12	Iraq
Kildee	MI-05	D+12	Iraq
Clyburn	SC-06	D+11	Iraq
D. Scott	GA-13	D+10	Iraq
B. Thompson	MS-02	D+10	Iraq
Hoyer	MD-05	D+9	Iraq
Berkley	NV-01	D+9	Iraq
Butterfield	NC-09	D+9	Iraq
Kaptur	OH-09	D+9	Stem cells
Reyes	TX-16	D+9	Iraq
M. Udall	CO-02	D+8	Iraq
Visclosky	IN-01	D+8	Iraq
Ruppersburger	MD-02	D+8	Iraq
Holt	NJ-12	D+8	ENDA
Schwartz	PA-13	D+8	Iraq
Gonzalez	TX-20	D+8	Iraq
G. Green	TX-29	D+8	Iraq
Higgins	NY-27	D+7	FISA
Dicks	WA-06	D+6	Iraq
Costello	IL-12	D+5	Stem cells
Kanjorski	PA-11	D+5	Iraq
Murtha	PA-12	D+5	Iraq
Michaud	ME-02	D+4	ENDA
Oberstar	MN-08	D+4	Stem cells
Sestak	PA-07	D+4	Iraq
Cardoza	CA-18	D+3	Iraq
Hinojosa	TX-15	D+3	Iraq
R. Larsen	WA-02	D+3	Iraq
Kind	WI-03	D+3	Iraq
S. Bishop	GA-02	D+2	Iraq
Baird	WA-03	D+0	Iraq
Giffords	AZ-08	R+1	Iraq
Ortiz	TX-27	R+1	Iraq
Mahoney	FL-16	R+2	Iraq
Gillibrand	NY-20	R+3	Iraq
D. Moore	KS-03	R+4	Iraq
Kagen	WI-08	R+4	Iraq
Spratt	SC-05	R+6	Iraq
Boyda	KS-02	R+7	Iraq
Holden	PA-17	R+7	Iraq
Boucher	VA-09	R+7	Iraq

0 votes

Rep.	District	PVI
Foster	IL-14	R+5
McNerney	CA-11	R+3
Arcuri	NY-24	R+1
J. Hall	NY-19	R+1
DeFazio	OR-04	D+0
Shea-Porter	NH-01	D+0
Doggett	TX-25	D+1
Hooley	OR-05	D+1
Obey	WI-07	D+2
B. Miller	NC-13	D+2
Yarmuth	KY-03	D+2
Perlmutter	CO-07	D+2
P. Murphy	PA-08	D+3
T. Bishop	NY-01	D+3
Hodes	NH-02	D+3
Klein	FL-22	D+4
C. Murphy	CT-05	D+4
Braley	IA-01	D+5
Hare	IL-17	D+5
Lo. Sanchez	CA-47	D+5

Republicans

4 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Castle	DE-AL	D+6	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Shays	CT-04	D+5	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Kirk	IL-10	D+4	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Gerlach	PA-06	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Dent	PA-15	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Reichert	WA-08	D+2	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Fossella	NY-13	D+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Ramstad	MN-03	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Pryce	OH-15	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Bono	CA-45	R+3	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Platts	PA-19	R+12	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP

3 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
LoBiondo	NJ-02	D+4	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
H. Wilson	NM-01	D+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
B. Young	FL-10	D+1	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
McHugh	NY-23	D+0	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
T. Davis	VA-11	R+1	ENDA, Stem cells, SCHIP
Upton	MI-06	R+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
LaTourette	OH-14	R+2	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
English	PA-03	R+2	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
C. Miller	MI-10	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage, SCHIP
Regula	OH-16	R+4	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Biggert	IL-13	R+5	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Capito	WV-02	R+5	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Freylinghuysen	NJ-11	R+6	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Gilchrest	MD-01	R+10	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
Emerson	MO-08	R+11	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP
Walden	OR-02	R+11	ENDA, Min. wage, Stem cells
D. Young	AK-AL	R+14	Min. wage, Stem cells, SCHIP

2 votes

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Saxton	NJ-03	D+3	ENDA, Min. wage
Walsh	NY-25	D+3	Min. wage, SCHIP
P. King	NY-03	D+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Porter	NV-03	D+1	ENDA, SCHIP
Latham	IA-04	D+0	Min. wage, SCHIP
McCotter	MI-11	R+1	ENDA, Min. wage
C. Smith	NJ-04	R+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Ferguson	NJ-07	R+1	Min. wage, SCHIP
Tiberi	OH-12	R+1	ENDA, SCHIP
Renzi	AZ-01	R+2	Min. wage, SCHIP
T. Murphy	PA-18	R+2	Min. wage, SCHIP
Turner	OH-03	R+3	Min. wage, SCHIP
Dreier	CA-26	R+4	ENDA, Stem cells
Buchanan	FL-13	R+4	Min. wage, SCHIP
Ros-Lehtinen	FL-18	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage
M. Diaz-Balart	FL-25	R+4	ENDA, Min. wage
Brown-Waite	FL-05	R+5	Min. wage, Stem cells
Kuhl	NY-29	R+5	ENDA, Min. wage
Wolf	VA-10	R+5	Min. wage, SCHIP
Petri	WI-06	R+5	Min. wage, SCHIP
L. Diaz-Balart	FL-21	R+6	ENDA, Min. wage
T. Johnson	IL-15	R+6	FISA, Min. wage
Hobson	OH-7	R+6	ENDA, SCHIP
Duncan	TN-02	R+11	Iraq, Min. wage
W. Jones	NC-03	R+15	FISA, Min. wage
Simpson	ID-02	R+19	Min. wage, SCHIP

1 vote

Rep.	District	PVI	Votes
Knollenberg	MI-09	D+0	ENDA
Weller	IL-11	R+1	Min. wage
P. Ryan	WI-01	R+2	ENDA
Keller	FL-08	R+3	Min. wage
Hayes	NC-08	R+3	Min. wage
M. Rogers	AL-03	R+3	Min. wage
Bilirakis	FL-09	R+4	Min. wage
Bilbray	CA-50	R+5	Stem cells
LaHood	IL-18	R+5	Min. wage
Forbes	VA-04	R+5	Min. wage
Calvert	CA-44	R+6	Stem cells
Rohrabacher	CA-46	R+6	Stem cells
Goode	VA-05	R+6	Min. wage
McKeon	CA-25	R+7	Stem cells
McCrery	LA-04	R+7	ENDA
Hulshof	MO-09	R+7	Min. wage
McMorris	WA-05	R+7	SCHIP
Campbell	CA-48	R+8	ENDA
Stearns	FL-06	R+8	Min. wage
Shimkus	IL-19	R+8	Min. wage
H. Rogers	KY-05	R+8	Min. wage
Heller	NV-02	R+8	Stem cells
Wamp	TN-03	R+8	Min. wage
J. Lewis	CA-41	R+9	Stem cells
Ehlers	MI-03	R+9	Min. wage
Issa	CA-49	R+10	Stem cells
Mack	FL-14	R+10	Stem cells
Whitfield	KY-01	R+10	Min. wage
Alexander	LA-05	R+10	Min. wage
J. Peterson	PA-05	R+10	Min. wage
Boozman	AR-03	R+11	Min. wage
Rehberg	MT-AL	R+11	SCHIP
Goodlatte	VA-06	R+11	Min. wage
Bonner	AL-01	R+12	Min. wage
Flake	AZ-06	R+12	ENDA
G. Davis	KY-04	R+12	Min. wage
Poe	TX-02	R+12	Min. wage
Everett	AL-02	R+13	Min. wage
Schmidt	OH-02	R+13	Min. wage
Granger	TX-12	R+14	Stem cells
Paul	TX-14	R+14	Iraq
Barton	TX-06	R+15	Stem cells
Marchand	TX-24	R+15	Min. wage
Aderholt	AL-04	R+16	Min. wage
Crenshaw	FL-04	R+16	Min. wage
L. Smith	TX-21	R+16	Min. wage
Coble	NC-06	R+17	Stem cells
J. Moran	KS-01	R+20	Min. wage
Bachus	AL-05	R+25	Min. wage

0 votes

Rep.	District	PVI
Chabot	OH-01	R+1
Walberg	MI-07	R+2
M. Rogers	MI-08	R+2
Feeney	FL-24	R+3
Roskam	IL-06	R+3
Kline	MN-02	R+3
Reynolds	NY-26	R+3
Mica	FL-07	R+4
Weldon	FL-15	R+4
Manzullo	IL-16	R+4
Camp	MI-04	R+4
Garrett	NJ-05	R+4
Gallegly	CA-24	R+5
Putnam	FL-12	R+5
Bachmann	MN-06	R+5
Graves	MO-06	R+5

This should be considered a work in progress, with improved versions likely to be published in the future, so please feel free to suggest 1) better ways of displaying this data (I intended to make the tables sortable, but SSP’s code doesn’t seem to allow that), and 2) what other 2007-08 votes are particularly important as litmus tests. There were a few others I was considering instead of ENDA, like the Employee Free Choice Act (not enough Dem defections) and the Peru trade agreement (not a clear liberal/conservative split… more of an internationalist/populist split in each party), so I’ll certainly consider adding additional categories.

UPDATE: Link to Google Docs for a copy of the spreadsheet here. I threw in Progressive Punch scores in case anyone wants to correlate votes on these big 6 against the broader scores.

IF IT’S TUESDAY, THIS MUST BE BELLEFONTE:

The headline says it all as it was a very busy and sometimes hectic week.  I started out the week Sunday and Monday in Harrisburg where I was attending the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania spring conference.   I really wish I could have been in State College to see Senator Barack Obama’s historic visit to Penn State but, I had already scheduled to attend the CCAP conference several weeks ago.   I’ve heard from people who attended and they were all still buzzing late in the week from the rally.

I left Harrisburg Monday afternoon to attend the Lycoming County Democratic Dinner in Williamsport on Monday evening.   Lycoming County Chair Jessie Bloom put together a fantastic event that was so well attended they filled up 2 rooms with Democrats who are excited about 2008.  

Lycoming County is split between the 5th and the 10th congressional districts.  As I was working the rooms, I shook hands with one gentleman who apologized and said “sorry, you just wasted a handshake, I’m from the 10th district”.  I countered back to him, “No, it wasn’t wasted, if I met a Democrat who is going to be working to get Democrats elected in 2008 that was good enough for me”.  All the candidates in attendance got the chance to speak and Auditor General Jack Wagner was the keynote speaker for the evening.

Tuesday brought 2 events in Centre County with an afternoon forum for the 5th District Democratic candidates at the Foxdale Retirement Community in State College.  Art Goldschmidt moderated the event and the residents asked many important questions.  

Then it was on to Bellefonte for a candidate’s forum with the 3 Democratic candidates taking center stage from 6:30 to 7:30 with the Republicans getting their chance from 8:00 to 9:30.

Wednesday brought an early morning trip to Clarion for legislative breakfast sponsored by the Clarion Chamber of Commerce.   This event had 16 candidates, 5 for the PA House seat being vacated by Rep. Fred McIllhatten and 11 of the 12 candidates for the 5th District seat.   Wednesday evening had us back in Centre County for the League of Women Voters debate.  Again, the Democratic candidates went first from 7:00 to 8:00 with the Republican candidates following.  Is it wrong to think the Republican candidates had viewers tuning out in favor of American Idol both nights?

Also on Wednesday, we released the news that both the IBEW Local #5 and the Ironworkers Local #772 have endorsed my candidacy.   It is important to me that we get endorsements from organizations that represent the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

You can read the endorsement letters here!

Thursday we had the Jefferson County Democratic spring banquet in Reynoldsville followed by a candidate forum for the Democratic candidates at the IBEW building in Clearfield.

Friday brought an important visitor to Clearfield County as US Senator Richard Durbin, the Assistant Majority Leader (also known as the Majority Whip), stopped in Clearfield and DuBois to support the Obama for President campaign.  It really is an exciting time for Democrats in central Pennsylvania as we are getting real attention from the presidential campaigns for the first time in my lifetime.

The longest day of the week was Saturday.  I was up a 5:15 AM to drive to Warren for a Democratic breakfast at 9:00 AM.  I found my theme that communities in the 5th district share many similarities took a new twist on Saturday morning.  The Clearfield County Courthouse sets at the corner of Second and Market streets and, believe it or not, the building where the Warren County breakfast was held was on the corner of Second and Market streets.  I pointed this coincidence out and the crowd got a chuckle from my observation.  I shared the microphone with 3 of the candidates running for the 3rd congressional district along with fellow 5th district candidate Rick Vilello.  We also heard from Jeff Eggleston for the Obama campaign and Congressman Marion Berry for the Clinton campaign.

Then it was on to Clarion for a League of Women Voters debate at Clarion University at 2 PM.  Rick Vilello and I shared the stage with 7 of the 9 Republican candidates for a joint debate.  Rick and I did the Democratic party proud as we addressed the issues important to the hard working people of the district.  The event concluded with a brief verbal skirmish between 2 of the Republican candidates during the closing statements.  I was very pleased when the Clarion County Democratic Chairman and several people in the audience came up and congratulated both of the Democratic candidates for our performances.

Saturday ended in Ridgway with the Elk County Democratic Spring Banquet.  Kelly joined me in Ridgway to hear 2 keynote speakers, Congressman Marion Berry representing the Clinton campaign and Jay Paterno representing the Obama campaign.  And, I can’t forget to mention that Victor Ordonez represented the campaign in Mifflin County for their spring dinner on Saturday evening.  A big thank you to Victor for making the trip to Lewistown.  It would have been impossible to do the debate in Clarion and also make it to Lewistown.

It was a long day to end a long week but I feel our campaign made great progress over the last 7 days.  The only downside to this is the reality that campaigning in such a large district is taking a toll on the family life.  Kelly and I knew what we were getting into back in January but it is difficult now that we are in the middle of the campaign.  April 22nd is coming fast and it will be nice once the outcome is known.  Either we will be campaigning through November or life will settle back down.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Candidate filing is sailing along with lots of states now having completed candidate filings and others with a full slate of democratic House candidate long before filings close.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-02 – R+19,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

But three races go to the uncontested in 2008 list:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-19 – R+10, (our candidate withdrew)

CA-22 – R+16,

So 407 races filled! This of course includes 234 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 173 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 173

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2

Districts with rumoured candidates – 9

Districts without any candidates – 6

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 11

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-02 – R+13,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-25 – R+7,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-18 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

ID-02 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-05 – R+20,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-01 – R+10,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-04 – R+7,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-08 – R+11,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

TN-07 – R+12,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

UT-01 – R+26,

UT-03 – R+22,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-07 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

FL-06 – R+8,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

VA-01 – R+9,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

LA-05 – R+10,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-10 – R+4,

OK-01 – R+13,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

AL-06 – R+25,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

KY-05 – R+8

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennesee, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Florida, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 35 states with a full slate, and 6 states with one race to fill!  That is more than 80% of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 7 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

There are also 5 states where filing has closed where we do not have a full slate: Arkansas, Alabama, California, Kentucky and of course Texas. Lets hope the rest fill out.

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-04, VA-06 and WI-06; 8 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! The other 2, TX-11 and AL-06, will again go uncontested by Team Blue in 2008.

With 11 uncontested Republicans we will not reach our great 2006 effort of 425 races filled but we will do really well nonetheless.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Contact: Victor M. Ordonez

Email: vmo1701@gmail.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

McCRACKEN RECEIVES MAJOR LABOR ENDORSEMENTS

Electrical Workers” and Iron Workers” Union Endorses McCracken Campaign

Mark B. McCracken, Democratic candidate for United States House of Representatives in the 5th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is proud to announce that he has received the endorsements from the 2,760 plus members of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local Union #5 and the 263 member International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental & Reinforcing Iron Workers Local Union #772.

In receiving the endorsement of these important labor organizations, Mr. McCracken stated “I am honored to have my candidacy endorsed by two organizations that represent the working people of Pennsylvania.  I know firsthand the struggles our working class face and I plan on being a strong voice in Washington for the people who work hard everyday, but lack the representation at the federal level they deserve.”

During McCracken”s tenure as a Clearfield County Commissioner, he has worked to establish a working relationship with representatives of organized labor within Clearfield County to keep them advised on economic development projects.  In endorsing McCracken”s candidacy, Michael Dunleavy, Business Manager for IBEW Local #5 wrote “I am convinced that your viewpoints and stance on issues that concern not only organized labor, but the well-being of all working Pennsylvanians are sound.  Your inclusion of labor as part of the process of economic development and job creation is commendable.  To us, your background and professional experience makes your candidacy a sound investment.”

These labor endorsements offer a significant boost to the candidacy of Mark B. McCracken to be the next congressman for the 5th congressional district.  The endorsements by the IBEW and the Iron Workers offer positive proof of the pro-active and involved leader that Mark B. McCracken is as a county commissioner which is the same effort he will put forth as a member of Congress.

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If you”d like more information about this topic, or to schedule an interview with Mr. Mark B. McCracken, please email either mkamccracken@verizon.net or the Media & Policy Advisor at vmo1701@gmail.com.

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You can read the endorsement letters here!

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page